🔥 Pepe Is Waking Up - PEPE Crypto Analysis — Transcript

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1. 0:00In the last 24 hours, about 1 billion
2. 0:03worth of Pepe changed hands. Now, the
3. 0:05entire token is worth only about 2
4. 0:08billion US dollars. So, who is trading
5. 0:10this much? And is this a good sign or
6. 0:13bad one? Have a look at this. What we
7. 0:15see here are the four numbers that
8. 0:17decide a meme token like Pepe. And I go
9. 0:20through all of them one by one in this
10. 0:21video. Now, one of those numbers looks
11. 0:24like a red flag until you see who those
12. 0:27wallets actually belong to. By the end
13. 0:29of this video, you will also know what
14. 0:31Pepe is worth in case it can catch up to
15. 0:34Shiba Inu. Hi, my name is Gerhard. I've
16. 0:36been in the crypto space for the last 8
17. 0:38years. I hit my first million 3 years
18. 0:39ago, and I did this mainly through
19. 0:41active trading of altcoins. So, feel
20. 0:43free to check out my track record in the
21. 0:45pinned comment down below. This is where
22. 0:47you also get access to the premium
23. 0:48membership. So, if you want to manually
24. 0:50or also automatically copy trade
25. 0:52whatever I trade, that's all below in
26. 0:54the pinned comment in premium. Feel free
27. 0:56to check it out. So, what is Pepe
28. 0:59actually? It's a meme token on Ethereum
29. 1:01that's been around for a few years, and
30. 1:03it doesn't pretend to be anything else.
31. 1:05There's no product, there's no fees, and
32. 1:07there's also no revenue. So, we can't
33. 1:10evaluate this token like a business, and
34. 1:13that's exactly why I look at other
35. 1:15numbers instead. The daily trading
36. 1:17volume is currently about half of the
37. 1:19market cap. The supply is 100% in
38. 1:23circulation, so there's no new tokens
39. 1:25coming anymore. There are about 591,000
40. 1:28wallets holding the token. And the open
41. 1:31interest, as in the amount of bets that
42. 1:33are currently made on the price, is
43. 1:35roughly 16% of the market cap. Here is
44. 1:38the daily trading volume of Pepe over
45. 1:41the last 3 months. On a normal day,
46. 1:43we've got about 150 million US dollars.
47. 1:46Currently, it's roughly seven times
48. 1:49that. Now, compare that to Shiba Inu,
49. 1:51which is the bigger token, and still
50. 1:54Pepe traded about six times more volume.
51. 1:57So, when money comes back into meme
52. 1:58coins, this is where it tends to go
53. 2:01first. Pepe went up almost 40% in the
54. 2:04last week. Dogecoin did about 17% in the
55. 2:07same week, and Bitcoin did even less.
56. 2:10Now, was there any news behind this? I
57. 2:13went looking and I couldn't find
58. 2:14anything specific to Pepe. The whole
59. 2:16market turned risk on, and Pepe is
60. 2:18simply the most liquid meme token with
61. 2:21the biggest swings. Now, the second
62. 2:23number is the one I like the most, and
63. 2:24that's of course the supply. There are
64. 2:26about 470 trillion tokens, and every
65. 2:29single one of them is already out.
66. 2:31There's no team allocation that unlocks
67. 2:33next month. There's no early investors
68. 2:35waiting to cash out. Nobody can create
69. 2:38new tokens either, because the contract
70. 2:40has no owner anymore. Think about this,
71. 2:42what this means, because most altcoins
72. 2:44release new tokens every month, and
73. 2:47that's constant selling pressure that we
74. 2:49always talk about. We don't have that
75. 2:51for Pepe. With Pepe, the token inflation
76. 2:54is simply zero. It cannot be diluted.
77. 2:57So, when the price goes down, it's
78. 2:59because holders are selling, not because
79. 3:01new supply hits the market. Have a look
80. 3:04at this chart. This is Pepe relative to
81. 3:06Bitcoin from the July low, and we've
82. 3:08outperformed Bitcoin by roughly 44%.
83. 3:11Keep in mind, Bitcoin itself went up
84. 3:13quite a bit over that same period. Now,
85. 3:16since everything in crypto goes up and
86. 3:18down at the same time, right? There's
87. 3:20all this correlation, what we actually
88. 3:21have to look at is always
89. 3:23outperformance. As in, does a particular
90. 3:25token do better or worse compared to the
91. 3:27rest? And so, this chart here explains
92. 3:30that for Pepe. We look at Pepe relative
93. 3:32to the others market cap, the others
94. 3:34market cap being all the altcoins that
95. 3:36are not in the top 10, and Pepe is one
96. 3:38of those tokens. We can see the all-time
97. 3:41high at the end of 2024.
98. 3:44Since then, Pepe tends to trend it down
99. 3:47versus the rest of the alts, even though
100. 3:49the supply is not expanding. If we take
101. 3:52roughly one year of relative performance
102. 3:56and we just connect those two trend
103. 3:58bottoms, we are looking at an
104. 4:00underperformance of 43%
105. 4:03per year. So, somebody is selling. The
106. 4:06question is only who. Every now and then
107. 4:09we get those quick rallies. Those might
108. 4:11be short squeezes when too many people
109. 4:14are betting on the Pepe price and then
110. 4:16liquidations happen with all of that
111. 4:18volatility. But then the price
112. 4:20subsequently comes back down again. Now
113. 4:22we are getting closer to a potential
114. 4:25resistance. I think it makes sense to at
115. 4:28least exit Pepe after an additional
116. 4:31outperformance of roughly 50%.
117. 4:34Over here the air is clearly getting
118. 4:36thin. But even right now with the recent
119. 4:38appreciation, things can get a bit
120. 4:41dicey. Because let's not forget 41% of
121. 4:45the entire Pepe supply is held by only
122. 4:4810 wallets. That's out of a total of
123. 4:51591,000
124. 4:54wallets. Now let's talk about this
125. 4:56number one more time. This number that
126. 4:57looks like the red flag, right? The 10
127. 5:00wallets that hold about 38 to 41% of the
128. 5:03supply depending on how this is
129. 5:04measured, if it's just Ethereum or also
130. 5:06the other blockchains. For most tokens,
131. 5:09I'd stop right there because that
132. 5:11usually means a few insiders can push
133. 5:13the price down whenever they want. But
134. 5:16let's look at who those wallets are. It
135. 5:18turns out that six out of 10 of those
136. 5:20wallets are exchanges. So, Binance, OKX,
137. 5:23Bybit. So, this is not just one big
138. 5:26holder. That's a very large number of
139. 5:28customers that hold that token. The
140. 5:31question is, is this all just custody
141. 5:33for those customers or is this
142. 5:35potentially also market making which
143. 5:37then could explain the constant selling
144. 5:39pressure. One of those 10 addresses by
145. 5:41the way is also a burn address. So,
146. 5:43those tokens are gone for good. The
147. 5:46biggest wallet without a label holds
148. 5:48around 6%. Now, that's still a lot and
149. 5:51we have to keep an eye on it. Still,
150. 5:53it's a very different picture from what
151. 5:55the headline number first suggests. Now,
152. 5:58the fourth number is the one I don't
153. 6:00like as much. Here is the spot market
154. 6:02against the perpetual futures on
155. 6:04Binance. On the spot market, we've got
156. 6:06about 130 million worth of trading
157. 6:08volume in the last 24 hours. On the
158. 6:10perpetual futures, it's more than 1
159. 6:13billion US dollars. So, roughly eight
160. 6:15times as much. In other words, the price
161. 6:18discovery is happening on the futures
162. 6:20market only, not on the spot market. The
163. 6:23open interest on the big venues I check
164. 6:25adds up to roughly 320 million US
165. 6:28dollars. Against the market cap, that's
166. 6:30roughly 16%.
167. 6:32That ratio usually tends to sit closer
168. 6:34to 10% for most risky tokens. So, we are
169. 6:37at the upper end here. The more bets we
170. 6:40have on a token, the more volatility we
171. 6:42tend to get and the more forced
172. 6:43liquidations we get through that
173. 6:45volatility. On Binance alone, the open
174. 6:48interest doubled within a week. We also
175. 6:51see this in the funding rate because
176. 6:53over the last month, it cost about 8%
177. 6:55per annum to bet on rising prices. So,
178. 6:57that was last month. This month, it's
179. 7:00closer to 90% per annum. So, who is
180. 7:04paying that? It's the short-term traders
181. 7:06who are chasing this move with borrowed
182. 7:08money. And moves like this very often
183. 7:10give back a part of it because a small
184. 7:13dip could potentially trigger
185. 7:14liquidations, maybe even cascaded
186. 7:17liquidations on those levered bets. This
187. 7:19is Pepe in US dollars over the last year
188. 7:22and we are still down by about a half.
189. 7:24So, those swings can cut both ways. So,
190. 7:27what does this all add up to? We've got
191. 7:29the deepest liquidity in the meme coin
192. 7:31sector, apart from Dogecoin, of course.
193. 7:34We've got a zero new supply and that's
194. 7:36never going to change. We've got wallets
195. 7:39that are much less concentrated than
196. 7:41they initially look. And we've got
197. 7:43leverage that is probably too hot right
198. 7:46now. So, it's three out of four. Now,
199. 7:48there's one number that I find
200. 7:50interesting. At the peak of the last
201. 7:52meme coin run, all meme coins together
202. 7:55were worth about $150 billion.
203. 7:58Currently, the whole sector is at $38
204. 8:01billion. So, roughly a quarter of that.
205. 8:03In July, meme coins made up less than 4%
206. 8:06of the altcoin market. And that was the
207. 8:08lowest share in a very long time. That's
208. 8:11also when Pepe made its low. So, I think
209. 8:14the sector might still be early in its
210. 8:16recovery and Pepe is the one leading it.
211. 8:19Relative to Dogecoin, Pepe is at its
212. 8:22highest level in the last 12 months. So,
213. 8:24there's no cash flow here. And yes, this
214. 8:26is pure sentiment. Still, if you want to
215. 8:29get exposure to meme coins coming back,
216. 8:31I think Pepe is the cleanest way to get
217. 8:34it.
218. 8:35The question is, what would make us add
219. 8:37more? What's a sensible strategy here?
220. 8:39The first thing is to watch the funding
221. 8:41rate cooling back down towards 10% while
222. 8:43the market cap, of course, holds above
223. 8:46the high in August. That would tell us
224. 8:48that spot buyers are replacing the
225. 8:50levered traders. So, long-term traders
226. 8:53coming in while the short-term traders
227. 8:55exit. The second thing is Pepe moving
228. 8:57above 60% of market cap of Shiba Inu.
229. 9:01That would be a new high for this whole
230. 9:03period and it would confirm that the
231. 9:04money keeps rotating into Pepe. If Pepe
232. 9:08simply catches up to Shiba Inu, that's
233. 9:10roughly 75% higher from here. Pepe stays
234. 9:14on my list and I keep looking to add. If
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