Panama Real Estate Market Update Q3 2026 — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Something has changed in the Panama real estate
2. 0:02market in Q3 of 2026.
3. 0:05Before, Panama City had a bit of an
4. 0:08oversupply.
5. 0:09Buyers had all the negotiating power because they
6. 0:12had a lot of options.
7. 0:14Rents didn't rise with the prices of apartments,
8. 0:18but that is changing.
9. 0:19So today we're going to go over why
10. 0:22that's changing.
11. 0:23What areas make the most sense for buying,
12. 0:27for renting, if you're going use it as
13. 0:29a rental, so for cash flow purposes, and
14. 0:32what areas I would avoid.
15. 0:34So in the big picture, let's start with
16. 0:36Panama itself.
17. 0:37Panama had a very strong growth in 2026.
18. 0:42So in the first half of 2026, Panama
19. 0:44grew at around 4.9%. The main drivers
20. 0:48of that growth would be construction, commerce, transportation,
21. 0:52and financial services.
22. 0:54So you have new infrastructure, new development, foreign
23. 0:57buyers, foreign buyers that are split basically in
24. 1:00two ways.
25. 1:01You have those that are residency driven, and
26. 1:03then you have those that are lifestyle driven.
27. 1:04So people that are actually moving here, maybe
28. 1:06not the full year, but part of the
29. 1:08year, they want to spend time in Panama,
30. 1:09and they're spending money here.
31. 1:11And all of those factors are starting to
32. 1:13show up in the property market.
33. 1:14You can see it.
34. 1:15And now inventory is getting tighter.
35. 1:17So this might be one of the largest
36. 1:19changes that you can see and feel happening
37. 1:22within Panama City.
38. 1:23Panama has spent the last couple of years
39. 1:25really working through an oversupply.
40. 1:28Now people are having to compete, and developers
41. 1:31that have good product in good area, there
42. 1:35are limited options.
43. 1:37And you can see it really in that
44. 1:39price point between, let's say, $200,000 and
45. 1:42around $400,000 to $450,000.
46. 1:44I wouldn't put us at the point of
47. 1:46having a shortage of inventory in Panama City,
48. 1:49but the days of walking in to a
49. 1:52developer and having an endless supply of options
50. 1:55at your fingertips is over, especially when you
51. 1:58take into account good area, good views, good
52. 2:00location, and an area that makes sense.
53. 2:02The $300,000 price point is becoming extremely
54. 2:05important, and that's not random.
55. 2:07So when you take into account the Panama
56. 2:09Qualified Investor Visa, which is direct from developer
57. 2:12right at the $300,000 price point, it
58. 2:15begins to make sense as to why that
59. 2:17level of inventory is moving.
60. 2:19In fact, Panama Equity in May of 2026
61. 2:22reported that the inventory that they had between
62. 2:25$300,000 and $400,000 compared to the
63. 2:27May of last year had more than doubled.
64. 2:30And on top of that $300,000 to
65. 2:31$400,000 price point, that group is what
66. 2:35I like to call Plan B, the Plan
67. 2:37B'ers.
68. 2:37In case something happens, they have residency in
69. 2:39Panama, maybe they never plan to use the
70. 2:41apartment, but they have it.
71. 2:43The next group is called Plan B+.
72. 2:45Plan B'ers is someone that expects to
73. 2:48spend $300,000 on a property in Panama,
74. 2:51and then they come here, and they really
75. 2:53like it.
76. 2:53They like it more than they expected to,
77. 2:56and so they spend a bit more.
78. 2:58They think, what if I expect to spend
79. 3:01time here?
80. 3:01I'm willing to put more money into a
81. 3:03country because I like it, and because I
82. 3:07place value on being in this area.
83. 3:09For example, being in Santa Maria, being in
84. 3:10Costa del Este, where the price point will
85. 3:12be usually above that $300,000 to $400
86. 3:14,000 price point.
87. 3:16So you have the Plan B, and you
88. 3:18have the Plan B+, and that is
89. 3:20really where they kind of separate themselves.
90. 3:22You also have the multinationals.
91. 3:24So in specific areas of Panama City, you
92. 3:27have multinational corporations, their headquarters where they're located.
93. 3:32It has not happened only one time.
94. 3:35Now I'm on to number three, actually, of
95. 3:38multinationals that I know that have been based
96. 3:42here in Panama for a specific amount of
97. 3:43time, and then they end up liking Panama
98. 3:46more than they expected to.
99. 3:47So say that you're a multinational sent from
100. 3:49Spain, and you had a three-year contract,
101. 3:52and you rent during that three-year time
102. 3:53period, but as your contract is ending in
103. 3:56year number two and a half, you decide
104. 3:58to stay.
105. 3:59You want to go from renting to buying
106. 4:01in Panama because the lifestyle here in Panama
107. 4:03is good.
108. 4:04You don't want to move back to Spain
109. 4:05for whatever reason.
110. 4:06Your kids are in school here.
111. 4:07So they're also absorbing that part of the
112. 4:10market, which is the, let's say, $400,000
113. 4:13to $800,000, maybe even above that, price
114. 4:16point of the person that came here as
115. 4:18a multinational, and now they're extending it to
116. 4:20make Panama their actual primary residence.
117. 4:23I would describe Panama now, the real estate
118. 4:25market, as a K-shaped market.
119. 4:27So two different types moving in two different
120. 4:29directions, and it depends on the type of
121. 4:32product that we're talking about.
122. 4:34So new developments with good amenities, nice balconies,
123. 4:38good views, and a good location where traffic
124. 4:40does not affect you as much.
125. 4:42Those areas you see doing very well.
126. 4:45Older buildings that the maintenance is maybe behind,
127. 4:49failing, and in a location with maybe the
128. 4:52building has few amenities, in a location where
129. 4:54there's heavy traffic, those two buildings are performing
130. 4:57at very different levels.
131. 4:59So that's why saying Panama real estate prices
132. 5:03are going up is very general, and I
133. 5:05think too general.
134. 5:06You see the market splitting in some areas
135. 5:08doing very well, in some areas you can
136. 5:10still sit on the market for a resale
137. 5:13for a very long time.
138. 5:14So you see newer, well-managed buildings doing
139. 5:17this, going up, and you see older, poorly
140. 5:19managed buildings doing this.
141. 5:21That's why it's very important to not just
142. 5:23ask where, what area to buy in, but
143. 5:26what building do I buy in?
144. 5:28Very, very different questions.
145. 5:29So where are prices actually increasing?
146. 5:32Let's look at two areas where we have
147. 5:34some good data.
148. 5:35We'll start with Bay of Ista and San
149. 5:36Francisco.
150. 5:37Those two areas year over year have some
151. 5:40of the highest growth.
152. 5:42Again, depends a lot on the building, but
153. 5:44let's say an average between San Francisco and
154. 5:48Bay of Ista had a year over year
155. 5:50growth between 9 and 12 percent.
156. 5:53Remember, these are asking prices, not necessarily what
157. 5:56they closed at.
158. 5:57That's an important distinction, but it shows us
159. 5:59where inventory is starting to tighten and the
160. 6:03areas where people are focusing here in Panama
161. 6:05City.
162. 6:06So two areas that I think are really
163. 6:07interesting and that you should watch would be
164. 6:10El Barrio and Bay of Ista.
165. 6:11Why?
166. 6:12Because you sit at a very interesting middle
167. 6:14ground.
168. 6:15From there, everything's pretty walkable.
169. 6:17You can walk to Parque Omar, you can
170. 6:19walk to Multiplaza, you have lots of nice
171. 6:21restaurants.
172. 6:22Everything by foot is very reachable.
173. 6:24Not that people do everything by foot in
174. 6:26Panama, but you have everything kind of right
175. 6:27there at your fingertips if you want to.
176. 6:31And you're not paying pricing like you do
177. 6:33in Santa Maria or Ocean Reef, which I
178. 6:35love.
179. 6:35But those two areas, El Barrio and Bay
180. 6:38of Ista, I think you should keep a
181. 6:40close eye on if you're looking at something
182. 6:42for an investment because there's a lot of
183. 6:44things going on.
184. 6:45There's a lot of infrastructure being put in.
185. 6:48There's a lot of same thing.
186. 6:49There's restaurants and grocery stores and things already,
187. 6:52but there's more.
188. 6:54There's more going in because it's very accessible
189. 6:56and you're between the banking district and Casco
190. 7:00Viejo.
191. 7:00You're just as centrally located as you can
192. 7:03possibly be in Panama City.
193. 7:04So what's happening to rental yields?
194. 7:06This is where Panama is getting interesting.
195. 7:10And overall, so if you take Panama City
196. 7:12as a whole, according to the Global Property
197. 7:16Guide during Q2 of 2026, you had rental
198. 7:19returns of around 6.9%. Okay.
199. 7:22But it gets really interesting when you start
200. 7:24to break it down by neighborhood and it
201. 7:26different areas serve different purposes.
202. 7:30Let me start with that.
203. 7:31Okay.
204. 7:31So somewhere like El Barrio has some of
205. 7:33the highest with just over seven, I think
206. 7:35it was like 7.3. Another interesting one,
207. 7:39Bay of Ista was around 7%.
208. 7:42And somewhere like El Congrejo was just under
209. 7:44like 6.9. And if you start to
210. 7:46look at more premium areas, so somewhere like
211. 7:49Punta Pacifica, Costa del Este, those areas started
212. 7:53to drop to around just under six.
213. 7:55So like 5.9, 5.75, those types
214. 7:59of returns for cash flow, but different areas
215. 8:04serve different purposes.
216. 8:05So somewhere like Santa Maria or Costa del
217. 8:08Este, again, a lot of this depends on
218. 8:10not just the area, but the building, but
219. 8:13general terms, somewhere like Costa del Este or
220. 8:16Santa Maria might have a better capital appreciation.
221. 8:19Why? Because those areas for end use buyers are
222. 8:22really popular.
223. 8:24People from North America, from Europe are coming
224. 8:27and that's where they actually want to plant
225. 8:29their flag.
226. 8:30That's where they want to live.
227. 8:32And so they're willing to pay the premium.
228. 8:34And that's where you see the differentiation between
229. 8:36an area that's good for cash flow and
230. 8:39an area that's good if you're looking for
231. 8:40more capital appreciation.
232. 8:42Now let's talk about the upper end, Santa
233. 8:45Maria.
234. 8:46So Santa Maria is one of the clearest
235. 8:49pictures for someone who wants to understand the
236. 8:51luxury real estate market and how it's moving
237. 8:53in Panama.
238. 8:54If you compare this year to last year,
239. 8:57in terms of sales in Santa Maria, it
240. 8:59has nearly doubled.
241. 9:01And if you've been inside of Santa Maria,
242. 9:03it makes sense.
243. 9:05You have Jack Nicklaus design golf course.
244. 9:07You have curated greenery.
245. 9:09You have high insecurity.
246. 9:12You have proximity to the airport.
247. 9:14You have proximity to some of the best
248. 9:16restaurants in Panama city.
249. 9:17You have everything at your fingertips right there.
250. 9:20And once you enter the luxury market, you
251. 9:22are buying scarcity.
252. 9:24You are buying into something that is not
253. 9:27easy to repeat.
254. 9:28Santa Maria is limited.
255. 9:29The land in Santa Maria is limited.
256. 9:32The lots are allocated.
257. 9:33The developers have their space.
258. 9:36So when you buy into Santa Maria, it's
259. 9:38something very unique because it will not be
260. 9:40able to be repeated within Panama city.
261. 9:42And Costa del Este.
262. 9:44So Costa del Este is still one of
263. 9:46Panama's most complete areas for families and for
264. 9:50multinationals.
265. 9:51Why?
266. 9:51In walking distance, you have corporate offices, you
267. 9:54have malls, you have green areas, you have
268. 9:57restaurants, you have Tucuman international airport, which is
269. 10:00not that far.
270. 10:01You also have traffic.
271. 10:02So this is something that Costa del Este
272. 10:04is working on right now.
273. 10:06They're adding a new entrance and exit to
274. 10:07Costa del Este, but you still definitely have
275. 10:10traffic.
276. 10:10If you're looking at Costa del Este from
277. 10:12a purely investment focus, I would focus on
278. 10:16newer towers with amenities, something that has a
279. 10:19view and has proximity to the multinationals that
280. 10:22will be renting from you.
281. 10:24I would also focus on something that is
282. 10:26not huge, something that has a decent size,
283. 10:29but not too big.
284. 10:30Why?
285. 10:31Because a lot of multinationals that will be
286. 10:33your renters don't have the time or the
287. 10:36effort to clean a large space.
288. 10:38A lot of them are downsizing.
289. 10:40A lot of them take use of the
290. 10:42amenities that the building has.
291. 10:44And so they prefer a nice comfortable space.
292. 10:46That's not too big.
293. 10:47Punta Pacifica is another interesting area that we
294. 10:50should talk about.
295. 10:51So Punta Pacifica is one of the areas
296. 10:53of Panama City that has the highest concentration
297. 10:55of ocean view high-rise towers that exist
298. 10:59in Panama City.
299. 11:00Punta Pacifica varies by building, honestly.
300. 11:03You have some buildings that are aging well,
301. 11:05and some that are not.
302. 11:08If Punta Pacifica is an area that you're
303. 11:10really interested in, I would really drill down
304. 11:12onto the maintenance of the building, the reserve
305. 11:16fund that the HOA has.
306. 11:18How is that building being maintained?
307. 11:19You have active owners that actually care about
308. 11:22the maintenance of the building.
309. 11:23That is the one thing that would keep
310. 11:26me really, really kind of careful with Punta
311. 11:29Pacifica.
312. 11:30Because sometimes those beautiful ocean views can really
313. 11:33fog over your good decisions.
314. 11:36Casco Viejo.
315. 11:37So Casco Viejo is an entirely different animal.
316. 11:41If you've been to Panama, you've probably visited
317. 11:43Casco Viejo.
318. 11:44And Casco is its own micro ecosystem, to
319. 11:48be honest with you.
320. 11:49It is very much tourism driven, hospitality driven,
321. 11:52and can vary a lot by building.
322. 11:56It is also a UNESCO World Heritage Site,
323. 11:59and supply is naturally limited because it's a
324. 12:02historic district within Panama.
325. 12:04So the pricing in Casco year over year,
326. 12:08looking at 2026, is actually down about five
327. 12:11percent.
328. 12:12And price per square meter is one of
329. 12:14the highest in Panama City, around four thousand
330. 12:15dollars a square meter.
331. 12:17Casco Viejo is the perfect example of a
332. 12:19micro market within Panama.
333. 12:21And it goes to show you that luxury
334. 12:24or high end does not necessarily mean the
335. 12:26best returns.
336. 12:27Here are the three things that I would
337. 12:29be very cautious if looking to buy right
338. 12:32now.
339. 12:32The first one will be aging, any aging
340. 12:35high-rise tower.
341. 12:37When you have an aging tower, you have
342. 12:38to keep up on the maintenance, which means
343. 12:40your HOAs can be very high.
344. 12:42It also means that you might have some
345. 12:45special assessments.
346. 12:47It also means that you have aging elevators,
347. 12:49aging plumbing.
348. 12:51You don't know how that building was maintained
349. 12:54before you got there.
350. 12:55And those extra costs can really start to
351. 12:58cut into your returns or into your pocket.
352. 13:02Number two, a generic luxury apartment.
353. 13:06Something that is on the price range of
354. 13:09600 to a million to higher than that.
355. 13:12It really needs to have something special.
356. 13:14It needs to have an X factor, a
357. 13:16differentiator.
358. 13:18OK, so not just a nice view, not
359. 13:21just X, Y, Z, because luxury is you
360. 13:25can find luxury anywhere.
361. 13:27It needs to have something.
362. 13:28I like to say it shouldn't have many
363. 13:30comparables.
364. 13:31You need to find something special that next
365. 13:33door is not the same.
366. 13:35You need to find something that is unique.
367. 13:37Your apple that you have does not have
368. 13:40another comparable apple.
369. 13:41And number three, buying pre-construction just because
370. 13:44someone simply says the prices are going to
371. 13:46go up.
372. 13:47There are so many things that feed into
373. 13:50that.
374. 13:51It depends on, one, is it a good
375. 13:54developer?
376. 13:54That's the most important thing.
377. 13:56Are they going to deliver you a quality
378. 13:57product on time?
379. 13:59How long is your money going to sit
380. 14:00there with them?
381. 14:01Two, at what point of the construction process
382. 14:05do you buy with them?
383. 14:06Are you really actually going to make money
384. 14:07or have they already had a bunch of
385. 14:09price increases over construction?
386. 14:11So there's a lot of things that feed
387. 14:13into that.
388. 14:14But just because you're buying something pre-construction
389. 14:16or in construction, Panama does not necessarily mean
390. 14:18that you're going to make money.
391. 14:20Another major piece of this Q3 real estate
392. 14:23update is international demand.
393. 14:26Americans, Canadians, Europeans, other Latin Americans are coming
394. 14:32to Panama for various reasons.
395. 14:34Panama has several clear outright advantages.
396. 14:38It's dollarized.
397. 14:39Real estate can be owned outright by foreigners
398. 14:42in your own name.
399. 14:44There's also very clear residency pathways.
400. 14:48So Panama has a lot of things going
401. 14:50for it, which is keeping the demand for
402. 14:52foreign buyers coming.
403. 14:53This gives Panama multiple streams of international people.
404. 14:59You have retirees, local buyers, corporate renters, multinational
405. 15:05buyers, multinational renters, residency buyers.
406. 15:10So you have this basically perfect storm that
407. 15:14is keeping international people interested in Panama.
408. 15:18When the craziness happens outside and Panama maintains,
409. 15:22people come running to our beautiful red and
410. 15:25blue and white doors.
411. 15:27Is Panama still a buyer's market?
412. 15:28That is probably the number one question for
413. 15:31Q3 that I'm getting.
414. 15:33And it's going to vary entirely by product.
415. 15:37So if you're looking at an older apartment
416. 15:40that's been sitting on the market for eight
417. 15:41months, it's still very much in your favor.
418. 15:44But if you're looking at something newer at
419. 15:46getting one of the best units in a
420. 15:48very popular new building, the stories are different
421. 15:51there.
422. 15:52Panama is very much moving away depending on
423. 15:54the inventory is moving away from being a
424. 15:57purely buyer's market.
425. 15:59If you're looking for specific inventory, best location,
426. 16:02best views from the best developers, I will
427. 16:04say that you better run to look for
428. 16:07some of those.
429. 16:07So where do we see the best opportunities
430. 16:09for Q4 in 2026?
431. 16:12I'm going to divide this up into three
432. 16:14different categories.
433. 16:15From a cash flow perspective, so if you're
434. 16:17looking at something that you want to cash
435. 16:18flow, maybe get in at a good entry
436. 16:21level price point, I would focus on areas
437. 16:24like Bellavista, El Barrio and maybe a few
438. 16:27places within and around San Francisco.
439. 16:30If you're looking at somewhere to use personally
440. 16:32for you and your family and maybe long
441. 16:34-term capital appreciation, I would focus on areas
442. 16:37like Costa del Este, Santa Maria.
443. 16:39If you're looking at luxury, if you have
444. 16:43the budget to go into that luxury market
445. 16:46and you're really looking at capital appreciation specifically,
446. 16:51focus on Santa Maria and Ocean Refinements.
447. 16:55Three very different takes, it'll depend on your
448. 16:57situation.
449. 16:58I would pay very close attention to developments
450. 17:02that have something that others don't.
451. 17:05At the end of the day, what you
452. 17:06want is a unique product.
453. 17:08That is what does the best in Panama,
454. 17:10whether it's for cash flow or capital appreciation,
455. 17:14especially the capital appreciation piece.
456. 17:17Why?
457. 17:17Because when you set the price for something,
458. 17:19whether it's for the rental or whether it's
459. 17:21for the resale for the capital appreciation, there's
460. 17:24not another comparable to it or there's very
461. 17:26few comparables to it.
462. 17:28So you need to know the area, you
463. 17:29need to know the city, you need to
464. 17:31know the streets well enough to understand is
465. 17:34there something that will be very comparable to
466. 17:36this?
467. 17:37Because what you don't want to be, you
468. 17:38don't want to be Walmart.
469. 17:39You don't want this to be a race
470. 17:41to the bottom in pricing, because usually how
471. 17:43you get in is how you get out.
472. 17:45You want a unique product that does not
473. 17:46have a comparable.
474. 17:47That is the best advice that I can
475. 17:50give to you for Q4.
476. 17:52If you're looking at Panama from an investment
477. 17:55perspective, if you're looking at it from a
478. 17:57lifestyle perspective, it will depend entirely on you,
479. 18:00depending on what type of lifestyle you like.
480. 18:02If you're active, if you want to be
481. 18:04close to all the conveniences of Panama city,
482. 18:07if you want to be a little bit
483. 18:08outside, you want to be a suburb, depends
484. 18:10a lot on your lifestyle.
485. 18:11And we're happy to walk you through all
486. 18:13of the different options that fit your needs
487. 18:14the best.
488. 18:15So I hope that this has been extremely
489. 18:17helpful for you.
490. 18:18If you're looking at real estate in Panama
491. 18:20over the last year, this is our Q3,
492. 18:232026 update.
493. 18:25If you guys have questions that I didn't
494. 18:26answer, you can be sure to put them
495. 18:28in the comment section and we'll get to
496. 18:30them in our next quarter update.
497. 18:32Or you can reach out to me directly.
498. 18:34My phone number's on the screen.
499. 18:36You can sign up to my insider's guide
500. 18:38in the box below this video.
501. 18:40And thank you so much for watching.
502. 18:42I appreciate every single one of you.