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Pakistan's Struggling To Feed Its Growing Population: What Are The Solutions? | Insight — Transcript

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0:02250 million people.
0:05Pakistan is now the fifth most populous
0:07country on Earth.
0:09And every year, it's adding millions
0:11more.
0:12I think this high fertility rate is a
0:15very major challenge to Pakistan's
0:17development.
0:19At a time when many nations are worried
0:21about declining birth rates,
0:23Pakistan faces a wholly different
0:25problem.
0:26Its population may be growing faster
0:29than the country's ability to sustain
0:31it.
0:4025 million children out of school, 40%
0:42stunted, and 11,000 women dying every
0:45year.
0:4627 year who are graduated from
0:48universities, but haven't got any
0:50opportunity.
0:52What happens if the population pressure
0:55valve bursts? Social unrest would be the
0:58natural outcome.
1:00And is time running out for Pakistan to
1:02fix it?
1:26In a small village in Bannu district,
1:28located in the northwestern region of
1:30Pakistan,
1:31lives Gulzar Khan.
1:34He can't recall how old he is, but there
1:36are something he's certain of.
2:12>> Ghazala's large family might be an
2:14extreme case.
2:16But in Pakistan, large families are
2:18common.
2:21In 2023, Pakistan's fertility rate was
2:24approximately 3.6 births per woman,
2:27well above the global average of 2.4.
2:32The replacement fertility rate is 2.1
2:34births per woman.
2:37This is the rate at which a population
2:39replaces itself from one generation to
2:41the next.
2:43Above that, the population grows.
2:46People make decisions about number of
2:48children
2:50for many reasons. One is that they will
2:52have more hands to work for them. They
2:54will have more employable
2:56people in
2:57in the family. And parents also decide
3:00that they should have at least one or
3:02two children taking care of them during
3:05their old age. So, their children are
3:08sort of a pension scheme for parents,
3:10too.
3:31Today,
3:32Pakistan is home to around 250 to 255
3:36million people.
3:38It could add about 4 million more this
3:40year.
3:41However, more doesn't always mean
3:44better.
3:46I think this high fertility rate is a
3:48very major challenge. Rather, I would
3:50say the biggest challenge to Pakistan's
3:52development
3:54because with such
3:56rate of growth in population and the
3:59pressure it poses on the resources,
4:02we have certainly
4:04great
4:06challenges in every field whether it is
4:08health care, whether it is
4:10it is education, whether it is
4:12urbanization,
4:13whether it is climate change. Every area
4:15gets impacted by the
4:17burden of overpopulation.
4:21At last year's Pakistan Population
4:23Summit, the theme was clear.
4:26From food to shelter to opportunities,
4:30Pakistan's population growth is
4:32outstripping the state's capacity to
4:34provide for its people.
4:38In 2024, around a quarter of the country
4:40was living below the national poverty
4:43line.
4:45For families already struggling, the
4:47cost of education and health care
4:49compounds with each addition to the
4:51household.
5:10We could say we are growing because we
5:12are healthy economy,
5:14because we have a vibrant society, but
5:17unfortunately it's accompanied
5:1925 million children out of school,
5:2240% stunted and 11 11,000 women dying
5:25every year.
5:26These are unacceptable. Even our Council
5:30of Islamic Ideology, when we
5:33shared these facts with them,
5:35they also said that we should support
5:38family planning or rather birth spacing
5:40between births. So, they have also given
5:43their consent on that. Even they realize
5:45that there is
5:48we call it tawazun, balance between
5:50resources and the way we are growing.
5:54This problem is decades in the making.
5:57In 1994,
5:58Pakistan had six births per woman.
6:02This fell to about 3.8 births per woman
6:05in 2010.
6:07Driven by rising female education,
6:10family planning awareness, delayed
6:12marriage, and higher living costs.
6:16The rest of South Asia had already
6:18experienced a fertility decline before
6:20Pakistan. So, we thought that Pakistan
6:23has joined the rest of South Asia. There
6:26was a kind of government or societal
6:28intent that
6:30uh to not just to lower fertility. It
6:33wasn't to lower fertility for itself,
6:35but to catch up with the rest of the
6:37world in terms of our
6:38indicators, in terms of infant
6:40mortality,
6:42fertility rates, maternal mortality,
6:44things that count for every society.
6:48But by the 2010s, the decline had
6:51stalled and the fertility rate has
6:53remained largely unchanged.
6:57At current rates, Pakistan's population
7:00will continue to surge for decades.
7:03The country is set to grow to over 260
7:06million people by 2030.
7:09By 2050, almost 400 million.
7:15Per capita income, female secondary
7:17education, and infant mortality rates,
7:19they have hardly changed in the last
7:2110-15 years. How can we expect fertility
7:24to decline when other things are
7:26stagnant, including the economy,
7:28including health,
7:30including education.
7:32We haven't done much better.
7:37Why does population control remain
7:39difficult in Pakistan?
7:42For one,
7:43conversations about family planning are
7:45deeply sensitive.
7:48In Pakistan's conservative and
7:49patriarchal society,
7:51reproductive choices are shaped by
7:53culture and religion.
7:57Tanveer Ahmed is an Islamic scholar and
7:59deputy head of Jamia Muhammadia, a
8:02mosque and Islamic school in the
8:04capital, Islamabad.
8:52Early marriage also plays a major role.
8:5518% of girls in Pakistan are married
8:58before the age of 18.
9:01That's more than 20 million women in
9:03total.
9:04Girls who marry young begin childbearing
9:07earlier and remain exposed to pregnancy
9:09for much longer period.
9:12Their education is often cut short,
9:15leaving them with limited knowledge of
9:16reproductive health.
9:19Only about a quarter of married women
9:20use modern contraceptives,
9:23far below the global average.
9:26Society should make that information
9:28available. They don't know how you know,
9:3090% or something will know that there is
9:33something called fam planning. But I
9:35think it's something like 30% who know
9:38where to go for such services.
9:42Government policy has also shaped
9:44population growth.
9:47The formula for distribution of
9:49resources is overwhelmingly tied to the
9:53population in provinces. So, there is no
9:56real incentive for any province to
9:59control population because if they
10:01control their population, if their
10:03population decreases, their share in the
10:06national resources and their share in
10:08the parliament also decreases.
10:12The entire resources of Pakistan,
10:14financial resources, are distributed on
10:17the basis of population. The seats in
10:19the parliament is distributed on the
10:21basis of population. The jobs in the
10:24government
10:26government jobs are distributed on the
10:28basis of population.
10:30And even the admission to the
10:32professional colleges are conducted on
10:35the basis of population. There is quota
10:36system. It is in the interest of every
10:39household in Pakistan to overrepresent
10:42themselves.
10:46With Pakistan's population growing
10:48rapidly, it could be facing a very
10:50fundamental challenge.
10:52How to feed ever-increasing mouths.
11:10In the countryside of Daska in central
11:13Punjab,
11:14Liaquat Ali, a farmer, is tending to his
11:17field.
11:26Agriculture remains the backbone of
11:28Pakistan's economy.
11:30It accounts for nearly a quarter of GDP
11:33and employs close to 40% of the
11:34workforce.
11:37Ali himself has nine children.
11:54As population grows, food production
11:57must keep pace.
11:59In 2023,
12:01Pakistan ranked 102nd in the Global
12:04Hunger Index.
12:06By 2025,
12:07the country had fallen four places to
12:10106.
12:12This is out of 123 countries.
12:16Our latest household income expenditure
12:18survey,
12:19which was released only a few days ago
12:22of 2024-25,
12:25suggests
12:27that
12:28poor spend roughly 60% of their
12:32monthly expenditure on only food items.
12:35Because they need to survive first.
12:39Wheat is the main staple of Pakistan,
12:42accounting for over 70% of caloric
12:45intake.
12:47Taken as a whole, wheat yields have been
12:49increasing
12:51from about 2.7 metric tons per hectare
12:53in 2015 to over 3.2 metric tons in 2024.
12:59However, the output can vary
13:01significantly year on year.
13:04Pakistan food security is
13:06basically in three realms.
13:10One, years of surpluses, then there are
13:12years of extreme
13:15uh scarcity.
13:17These are the two and third is the heat
13:19by climate change. Whenever climate
13:21change hits,
13:22some of the areas face extreme uh,
13:25food scarcity in Pakistan.
13:29In 2022, the country experienced the
13:31most devastating flood in recent
13:33history.
13:35Last year, the deluge returned, causing
13:38severe agricultural devastation across
13:40Pakistan.
13:43In Punjab, the country's main farming
13:45belt, an estimated 60% of the rice
13:48harvest, 30% of sugarcane, and 60% of
13:52maize were wiped out.
13:54The floods killed tens of thousands of
13:56livestock and caused losses exceeding 1
13:59billion US dollars.
14:26Pakistan's agriculture is highly climate
14:28sensitive.
14:29Around 60% of the population depends
14:32directly or indirectly on rain-fed
14:35farming, leaving millions exposed to
14:37climate shocks.
14:39The 2022 floods put nearly a third of
14:42the country under water.
14:45Over a million hectares of farmland were
14:47damaged,
14:48pushing more than 8 million people into
14:51poverty.
14:52Pakistan is one of the top 10 climate
14:55vulnerable countries, whereas our own
14:57contribution to the global greenhouse
14:59gases is less than 1%.
15:02But, we are asked to pay the price for
15:05the development of others, for the
15:06irresponsible development that others
15:08have made. And now, our farmers and our
15:11poor people pay the price.
15:14But, climate change is only part of the
15:16story.
15:17As the population grows, there will will
15:20competition for scarce resources.
15:23And in Pakistan's case, it's over land.
15:38Much of Pakistan's most fertile land
15:41lies along the Indus River plain,
15:43the same region where the largest cities
15:45are expanding.
15:48In 2017, there were 14 cities in
15:50Pakistan with more than half a million
15:53people.
15:54Now, they're 22.
15:57That growth has come at a cost.
16:11We have tried to build our cities, our
16:13industrial sector in the way that we
16:15actually take away resources from the
16:17agriculture and give it to the urban
16:19areas from the rural areas to urban
16:21areas and from agriculture to industry.
16:24And because now people do not find
16:29return on their investment in the in the
16:31agriculture sector, so they are selling
16:33their lands. And now the urban the
16:35housing societies are primarily thriving
16:39on our housing policies which do not
16:42encourage vertical structures.
16:45The government is trying to reverse the
16:46trend.
16:48Prime Minister formed a committee which
16:50I chaired on
16:52browning of green lands
16:54because these housing societies are
16:56certainly
16:58making an intrusion into green fields
17:01and our agricultural land is a coming
17:03under pressure. So, we have worked very
17:05closely with the provinces and we have
17:07made guidelines and now we are promoting
17:10vertical growth of cities. So, that is
17:14the future and we are now working with
17:17the provinces that they must have
17:19stricter
17:21land zoning laws and enforcement so that
17:25we can curtail conversion of agriculture
17:28land into housing societies.
17:31However,
17:32even in years of bumper yields, the
17:34picture is nuanced.
17:36When it comes to food, it's not just
17:38quantity, it's also quality.
17:41A varied diet is important for
17:43nutrition.
17:46While Pakistani agriculture produces
17:48cereals such as wheat and rice in
17:50abundance, this is less true for
17:52vegetables, fruit, and edible oils.
17:55It's really a mismanagement problem. It
17:57is a policy failure in many instances.
17:59They fail to know what to produce, where
18:02to produce, how to produce, when to
18:04produce.
18:05These are the fundamental questions
18:07which the government A doesn't take
18:09interest in, B does not know how to sort
18:12of synthesize the management question.
18:16As a result, Pakistan is importing more
18:19and more food.
18:21In fiscal year 2024 to 2025,
18:24Pakistan's food import bill reached a
18:27record 8.14 billion dollars, up from 7.9
18:31billion dollars a year prior.
18:34In the first 4 months of FY26,
18:37food import value climbed over 31% from
18:40the same period last year.
18:43That import dependency will grow.
18:45And then our people will be at the mercy
18:49of international prices. If the food
18:51prices in international market goes up,
18:54we the food prices domestic market will
18:56also rise.
18:59Food inflation has been rising since
19:01COVID, reaching a record high of over
19:0448% in May 2023.
19:07It has come down since, but it's still
19:10positive.
19:12Parishioners are there every rose
19:14garden.
19:23The purchasing power is a totally
19:25separate question than the
19:27food being available in the market.
19:28There are plenty of markets in which
19:30food is available. So, it's not an
19:32acute scarcity problem with Pakistan. It
19:34is the ability to purchase that food.
19:37And the high income distribution issue.
19:41You have 1% of the population, 1.5%
19:44which is owning 60% of the wealth of the
19:46country, 70% of the wealth of the
19:48country. Then, on the other extreme, you
19:50have people, you know, who are at the
19:52lower tier of the society which
19:54barely are going hand-to-mouth.
19:58Nationwide, around 20% of Pakistan's
20:01population is undernourished.
20:04For children, the consequences are
20:06severe.
20:08If you talk about major problem which we
20:10usually see in the children who are
20:12under five, number one is malnutrition.
20:16And then you if you talk about anemia,
20:18more children they are anemic, they are
20:21uh deficient in iron.
20:2518% of children in Pakistan under five
20:27suffer from acute malnutrition.
20:30And 40% of children are stunted, which
20:32means their growth is impaired.
20:36Malnutrition weakens immune systems,
20:38increasing the risk of death from
20:40preventable illnesses.
20:43I have two children with pneumonia. One
20:45child who is suffering with stunting,
20:47malnutrition, and anemia.
20:49And the second child, he's not
20:51malnutrition he's not malnutrition. He
20:53don't have any anemia, and he is not
20:55stunting. The recovery rate of pneumonia
20:58in that child who is well
21:01in immunity, who is vaccinated, who is
21:04not malnourished, is more rapid as
21:06compared to that child who is stunted,
21:09who is malnourished, who is suffering
21:11with malnutrition and anemia.
21:14What's more,
21:15undernourished mothers impair fetal
21:17development and newborn resilience,
21:20often through low birth weight and
21:22heightened infection risks. When you
21:24have high fertility rate, there are also
21:26the problem with the mother.
21:28If a woman, she's conceiving again and
21:30again, she has more fertility rate,
21:32definitely her health, her immunity, her
21:34immune system, and definitely all these
21:36things, they they they will also
21:37compromise.
21:39The pressure on food production is
21:40compounded by another crisis,
21:43water.
21:45Pakistan is among the most
21:46water-stressed countries in the world.
21:49By 2035,
21:51the country is predicted to slip into
21:53absolute water scarcity.
21:5580% of rain comes during the monsoon.
21:59The 20% of rainfall is
22:03during the winter months. We only store
22:05a very fraction of it.
22:07Total water is about 141 million acre
22:09feet of water. What happens, you keep
22:12dividing that by the
22:14number of people which you are adding up
22:16every year, every 5 years you add up a
22:18lot of people. So, what happens, the
22:20average water availability starts going
22:23down
22:24rapidly.
22:26Pakistan is currently in the process of
22:28building 18 new dams in hopes of
22:31reducing flooding risks and improving
22:33agricultural productivity.
22:35But until then,
22:37farmers are at the mercy of the seasons.
22:52Geopolitical strains complicate the
22:54water issue.
22:56Pakistan and India share the Indus River
22:58System, consisting of six major rivers.
23:03Governing this system is the Indus
23:05Waters Treaty, a 1960 water sharing
23:08agreement between India and Pakistan.
23:12The treaty allocates the three eastern
23:14rivers almost exclusively to India and
23:16the three western rivers to Pakistan.
23:20About 95% of Pakistan's total renewable
23:23water resources come from the Indus
23:25Basin.
23:27In April 2025,
23:30following a terrorist attack in
23:31Indian-administered Kashmir,
23:33India announced it would hold the Indus
23:35Waters Treaty in abeyance and suspended
23:38its participation.
23:40There are concerns India intends to stop
23:43the free flow of water from the western
23:45rivers to Pakistan.
23:48Pakistan under no circumstances will
23:50allow that.
23:51Under no circumstances. We will cease to
23:54exist. It's as simple as that. We cease
23:55to exist. You cannot walk out of it
23:57one-sidedly. India has to realize one
23:59thing,
24:01that Pakistan, when it gave the rivers,
24:03it gave the these rivers with the
24:06understanding, with the assurance, that
24:08this is a treaty for all times to come.
24:14While major water cuts have not happened
24:16yet, India has stopped sharing water
24:18data, which could affect crop planning
24:21and water use downstream.
24:24At the same time,
24:26Pakistan continues to grow some of the
24:28most water-intensive produce in an
24:30increasingly arid climate.
24:34The country's major cash crops, rice,
24:37sugarcane,
24:38and cotton have high water demands.
24:43Should a country which is, according to
24:46the United Nations,
24:47is a water-stressed country, the per
24:50capita availability of water is
24:52declining,
24:53should that country be growing a
24:55water-intensive
24:57crops?
24:58The answer is no.
25:00What
25:02what should we do then?
25:04Because that they are the major source
25:05of funding. Rice is the major source of
25:07foreign exchange earnings.
25:09We cannot stop growing
25:11rice.
25:12Despite knowing the fact that we are a
25:14water-stressed country.
25:17Besides food and water running low,
25:19Pakistan is also short of opportunities
25:22for its youth.
25:36Pakistan has one of the youngest
25:38populations in the world.
25:41Nearly 70% are under 30.
25:44While this should be a demographic
25:46dividend,
25:47it has become a source of frustration.
25:5127-year individuals
25:53who are graduated from universities, but
25:56haven't having
25:57haven't got any opportunity or haven't
26:00got a job or to be self-independent.
26:07Sakland has a degree in political
26:09science,
26:11but he has been on the job hunt for over
26:132 years.
26:14And he's not alone.
26:18Recent labor market surveys show
26:20national unemployment at around 7%, a
26:23two-decade peak.
26:26Youth unemployment is even higher at
26:28over 12%.
26:31Every year, approximately 2 million
26:33young people are entering into the job
26:35market in Pakistan. And in order to
26:38provide jobs to the new entrant, not to
26:42mention in the pool of unemployed people
26:45already there,
26:46our economy should be growing in the
26:48range of 6 to 6 and 1/2% per annum.
26:52Pakistan's economic growth is around 2
26:54to 3% annually.
26:56Not enough to absorb its pool of youths.
27:00Security challenges,
27:02cross-border tensions, and economic
27:04instability deter investments and job
27:07creation.
27:09After foreign reserves plunged, the
27:12government turned to the IMF.
27:15But the bailout packages came with a
27:17slew of austerity measures.
27:20And IMF believes in stabilization,
27:23not growth, stabilization.
27:25And when we talk about stabilization,
27:28there are four elements of the IMF
27:30program.
27:32Tight monetary policy means keep
27:35interest rate high.
27:36Tight fiscal policy means austerity.
27:40Cut down your expenditure.
27:42And aggressive taxation.
27:45Third,
27:46market-based exchange rate means
27:48devaluation.
27:51And then fourth is a raising prices of
27:53utilities.
27:56Every time we have grown beyond 6%, we
27:59could not sustain that growth because we
28:02did not have a corresponding growth in
28:04exports to earn enough foreign exchange
28:07to sustain the demand of imports.
28:10Threw us into boom and bust cycles. So,
28:13in order to break that cycle, the only
28:16sustained growth path for us is to focus
28:19on exports, and therefore, we are now
28:22pursuing a very aggressive export-led
28:25development strategy.
28:27In 2025,
28:29growth stood at just under 3%.
28:33For Saklain, the weight of his
28:35unemployment is not just financial, it's
28:38also emotional.
28:40I'm 27 years old.
28:42And a boy with a 27-year-old have a lot
28:46of burden and expectations from the
28:48family members, financially stable,
28:51uh
28:52who have a good job and have some
28:55earnings, sir.
28:57Without jobs in the country, many head
28:59overseas.
29:02According to a 2023 UN report, in the
29:05preceding 3 years, a million skilled
29:07workers left the country.
29:10This places Pakistan among the top
29:12globally for outflow of talent.
29:16So, leaving country is way to make
29:18yourself independent and self-sufficient
29:20in the being. Well, I want to go to
29:22European countries.
29:24Uh
29:25and uh among this, Germany is my top
29:28priority because I I'm
29:32I am witnessing that my friends, they're
29:33getting good jobs.
29:36As per my 15 years experience, what I've
29:39seen, I've seen lot of my seniors, lot
29:42of my colleagues and especially if we
29:44talk about my juniors,
29:46almost 60% of them,
29:49they have left the country.
29:52A majority of those who have left
29:54Pakistan head to Gulf states like UAE
29:57and Saudi Arabia.
29:59But even that route might be closing.
30:02In 2025, over 5,000 Pakistanis involved
30:06in begging were deported from Saudi
30:08Arabia.
30:10There were also over 50,000 cases of
30:13refused entry over questionable visas.
30:17As a result, some Gulf states are
30:20tightening visa rules and quotas for
30:22Pakistanis over crime and irregular
30:25migration concerns.
30:27Europe and the US are clamping down on
30:29migration at large.
30:31But that has still not stopped the
30:33hopeful from trying.
30:35I'm trying to apply for
30:38Hungary, for Germany,
30:40for Canada,
30:42or anywhere else
30:44We have better political and economic
30:46stability there as compared to Pakistan.
30:50For the upstream in education
30:53rapid population growth also squeezes
30:55opportunities.
31:01Nowadays our class contain
31:04more than 70 to 80 students minimum.
31:07Where the standard is for computer
31:09science is 40 students minimum. But the
31:13trend for
31:14subject is in enormous. Interest of
31:17students is exploding. We have many
31:20enrollments and we cannot cope the class
31:24with
31:24such kind of big strength.
31:30Schools in Pakistan are straining to
31:32accommodate the country's growing
31:33population.
31:35On average, public school classroom
31:38sizes are between 30 to 40.
31:41This far exceeds the global average of
31:4324.
31:45With so many students crammed into a
31:47classroom
31:48learning suffers.
31:52Discipline is the main thing in class.
31:54When a teacher come in class
31:56he first thing he wants is discipline
31:59silence. But when strength is enormous
32:03teacher cannot deliver what he have
32:05prepared. Because of
32:08because of gossips because of noises
32:10last student cannot listen.
32:12They go uh
32:13to all the sir we are not able to
32:16attend the class properly because your
32:18delivery lecture is not your voice is
32:21not reaching us.
32:23In some schools resources are stretched
32:25thin with students crowding around
32:27scarce facilities like computers.
32:31This has a domino effect as young people
32:33progress in their education.
32:37I'm seeing a big challenge in future.
32:39This scenario creating students which
32:42have no knowledge about what is
32:44practical. It can give some productive
32:46output in industry, in
32:49academia, or in our society.
32:52In my opinion, this scenario
32:56making students acknowledging education
32:59less important because they are not
33:01getting
33:04jobs or opportunities according to their
33:07expectations.
33:10Between 2022 and 2023,
33:13student population grew by about 4%.
33:17One estimate found that the Khyber
33:19Pakhtunkhwa province alone will need
33:22over 15,000 additional schools.
33:26Yet education spending has been
33:27stagnant,
33:29below 2% of GDP,
33:31short of the constitutional target of
33:334%.
33:36Education is not given the least
33:38priority. We live in a very bad
33:40neighborhood.
33:42And when you live in a bad neighborhood,
33:43you require your defense to be strong.
33:46So you have to spend you are bound to
33:47spend more on on defense.
33:50Even if our defense is spending is on
33:52borrowed resources.
33:54As a result, over 25 million children
33:58age 5 to 16 are out of school.
34:0140% of the population are considered
34:03illiterate.
34:06I would say that it is inexcusable not
34:09to find the money to educate them. And
34:12what it means is we are denying
34:13generations
34:15of children which will become young
34:18adults,
34:19you know, without even a half a start in
34:21life.
34:23We are not generating the economy which
34:25can take care of the population.
34:26However, if we don't improve our
34:28economic output and we we do not really
34:30manage our distribution of economic
34:33resources like health care facilities,
34:35like education facilities, and we do not
34:38provide jobs to people, then even lesser
34:41growth rate will not solve our problem.
34:45However,
34:46Pakistan's current debt burden could
34:49make a turnaround difficult.
34:52So, if you look at Pakistan's
34:53expenditure,
34:55again, for the last 5-6 years, if you
34:57look at that,
34:59what items
35:01was consuming most of the revenue of the
35:04government?
35:05Interest payment. Hardly anything left
35:08to be spent on all other infrastr-
35:11infrastructure or education, health.
35:15The- These are all neglected sector now.
35:18Without economic opportunities, both
35:21domestic and overseas, population growth
35:24is a looming crisis.
35:38Every year,
35:39Pakistan adds between 4 and 5 million
35:42people to its population.
35:45By 2030,
35:46the country's expected to reach around
35:48300 million.
35:50By 2050, that number could rise to
35:53nearly 380 million.
35:56The pace of growth places enormous
35:58strain on Pakistan's resources, economy,
36:01and stability.
36:03Uh you know, these days, we are almost
36:06choked with measles in Pakistan in
36:09under-5 children. We are almost choked
36:12with pneumonia in Pakistan. I'm not
36:15talking about only the public hospitals.
36:17You go to any private hospital, even,
36:19you don't have any bed availability of
36:21bed.
36:22Overcrowded hospitals are a sign of a
36:24system under pressure.
36:26According to the World Bank in 2020, the
36:30country has 0.6 hospital beds per 1,000
36:33people.
36:34For comparison, the global average is
36:37about 3.1 beds per 1,000 people.
36:41When you don't have family planning, you
36:43have more population. How you will
36:45tackle with the vaccination? How you
36:47will tackle with this with the
36:49nutrition? How you will tackle with the
36:51bed occupancy? And if you talk about
36:54human resource, doctors, nurses, they
36:57are very short as compared to the
36:58population.
37:01At the end of 2024,
37:03the government launched an economic
37:05reform plan called "Uran",
37:08meaning flight in Urdu.
37:10For the first quarter,
37:12the GDP growth rate has come as 3.7%,
37:16which is very encouraging. So, economy
37:19is coming back, but our challenge is
37:21that while our economy grows, we must
37:24also
37:25reduce growth rate in our population.
37:28So, this is now one of the center pieces
37:31in our new development strategy under
37:33Uran Pakistan, that we must make extra
37:37effort to slow down population growth.
37:40There's some signs of change.
37:42For decades, the legal age of marriage
37:44in Pakistan was 16 for girls, 18 for
37:47boys.
37:48Recent legislation has raised the
37:50minimum age to 18 for both, a move
37:53advocates say could help delay marriage
37:56and reduce early pregnancies.
37:59One of the important factors is that
38:01when women have a better they have a
38:04role in decision-making, they have
38:05better education, they have better
38:06better career prospects. And uh
38:10and this is why
38:13marriage is delayed and total fertility,
38:15the number of children a woman can
38:17bear,
38:18that actually goes down.
38:21But the reform is limited.
38:24The new law currently applies only to
38:26Islamabad.
38:28A similar law was passed in the Sindh
38:29province in 2013.
38:33However, in other provinces, the minimum
38:36age for girls remains 16.
38:38With some arguing the legislation
38:40conflicts with cultural and religious
38:42values.
39:30So often we say okay, it's because of
39:32the religious factor. But when we look
39:35at our service, very few Pakistani women
39:37will say
39:39you know, I am having this number of
39:40children because it's prescribed by my
39:43religion. That is you know, a bit
39:45exaggerated, I would say as a factor. It
39:48is a multi-dimensional problem. And one
39:50of the major things that's coming up now
39:52is the low levels of female education,
39:54but the low levels of female work
39:57participation. 24%. No society, how can
40:01you say you're moving towards
40:02development if only 24% of women are
40:06doing working in the
40:08labor force.
40:10Now, the issue of overpopulation has
40:12been taken up at the highest levels in
40:14Pakistan.
40:17While the long-term goal is to bring
40:19fertility rate down from the current 3.6
40:22to the replacement rate of 2.1,
40:25a clear timeline or target remains
40:28vague. The Population Council does not
40:31promote a certain number as the ideal
40:33number. The belief is
40:35every family, every couple, every person
40:38has a right to have the number of
40:39children that they want.
40:41But, along with that right
40:44comes a responsibility of the state and
40:45the family to also provide education,
40:49health, nutrition,
40:51ensure the survival of a mother when she
40:53has a baby,
40:56further down the line, a right to
40:57employment, a right to a decent life, to
41:00be whatever we call um
41:02rights for, you know, under the our
41:04constitution.
41:07Globally,
41:08research shows that the lack of
41:09opportunities has been linked to
41:11political violence, crime, and
41:14militancy.
41:16Naturally, social unrest will be natural
41:19outcome.
41:21Because when people remain unemployed,
41:24they will have a violence type of
41:26attitude in their nature.
41:28So, without
41:31addressing economic challenges,
41:34uh
41:35it is difficult for a country like
41:36Pakistan
41:38to become a prosperous country going
41:40forward.
41:41To tackle youth unemployment, the
41:43government has launched Pakistan's first
41:46national youth employment policy.
41:49It aims to equip young people with
41:51modern skills and create large-scale job
41:54opportunities for young people both at
41:56home and abroad.
41:59We must have technology foundation, and
42:02we must equip our young population with
42:05new uh skills for a digital uh economy,
42:09so that they are relevant in the new
42:10economy, and we don't face a mass of
42:13unemployed youth. We have to create more
42:15space and we have to expand our coverage
42:18of education sector because there were
42:20not enough classrooms to retain those
42:23students. There were not enough teachers
42:25to keep those children in school. So now
42:29provinces are you know focusing on
42:31expanding their spaces. They're also
42:34recruiting new teachers so that we have
42:36better student teacher ratio so that we
42:39can retain these children. And then we
42:41are working with the communities to
42:43ensure we create incentives for these
42:46children to come to schools.
42:48On the food front, schemes are offering
42:51financial support and low interest loans
42:53to farmers.
42:55Pakistan is also investing in climate
42:58resilient farming.
42:59Recently we have sent 1,000 agriculture
43:03engineers to China to get training in
43:06the new technologies so that we have
43:08better seeds for climate adaptation. We
43:12have better mechanization in our
43:14agriculture. We have better use of
43:16water,
43:18more efficient use of water as a
43:20resource.
43:22However,
43:23coordinating national policies to
43:25address population pressures could prove
43:27to be a challenge.
43:29In 2010, the 18th constitutional
43:32amendment devolved the power from the
43:35federal government to the provinces
43:37giving provincial authorities autonomy
43:39over issues like health, social
43:41services, and education.
43:44The real challenge now lies in effective
43:47coordination
43:49between provinces and federation. When
43:51the devolution was done, it was thought
43:54that you know if any area has been
43:57devolved then federal government has no
43:59role with that and therefore most of our
44:02social services became very fragmented
44:06and we have not seen a more
44:09kind of a coordinated action in areas
44:13which were devolved. So now our
44:15government's approach is to not reverse
44:18devolution, but to play the role of a
44:22coordinator.
44:25Pakistan's greatest strength may also be
44:27its greatest challenge.
44:29A young growing population could be a
44:31powerful demographic dividend, a vast
44:34workforce, rising consumption, and
44:37long-term economic potential.
44:41On the flip side, the demands of more
44:43people place ever-increasing strain on
44:45limited resources.
44:48As a result, Pakistan's population boom
44:51has become a paradox, a source of both
44:54hope and pressure.
44:59When our population dominates, basically
45:02convert opportunity into crisis. So it's
45:04really frustrating and really
45:07situation
45:09situation of crisis.
45:10When we look around that number of
45:12students as well as my friends are
45:14jobless.
45:37Inshallah, children are blessing.
45:40And
45:41why not? But what we want is give people
45:44who are already born in Pakistan should
45:47not face additional pressures. We are
45:49adding to the population. We're adding
45:51to the pressure. We are not even able to
45:53provide what we owe to our current
45:56generation that's already born in
45:58Pakistan. If people think that it is not
46:00possible to to have a decent life
46:03without having more than two two
46:05children. People will not decide like
46:07this. So, rather than helping them have
46:10a better quality of life through better
46:12economic and political and social
46:14management, you are asking them to have
46:16less children. So, you will ultimately
46:18make families worse off. So, you have to
46:20really work on your fiscal policies,
46:22your
46:24education, health policies so that
46:27this this country becomes a
46:31symbol of hope for them.
46:33Internationally, everybody is telling
46:34us, you know, hit hard on this.
46:36Pakistan cannot develop if its
46:38population explosion is going to
46:39continue like this. It's not humanly
46:41possible.

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