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Pakistan Floods 2025: Human Toll & Climate Science Explained | Karachi Swat Buner — Transcript

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0:11[Music]
0:25[Music]
0:34[Music]
0:44Hello, I'm Mahinazam Khan, your host for
0:46Dawn News English front seat to climate
0:47change. Between 26th June and 22nd
0:50August this year, 776 people have died
0:53and 993 have been injured across
0:55Pakistan.
0:57Around 4,78 houses have collapsed and
1:015,438
1:02livestock have been lost. A total of 399
1:06rescue operations have been conducted
1:08with most in Kyra Paktunwa and Git
1:11Paltistan. Now these numbers are of a
1:14aftermath of torrential rains that swept
1:16across Pakistan with Kyber Pakuna and
1:19Gilgit Baltistan being hit the hardest.
1:21Since the onset of monsoons in late
1:23June, Pakistan has seen intense rains,
1:26flash floods and landslides across both
1:29the north and the south.
1:31In Karachi, schools and workplaces
1:33closed, drainage collapsed and
1:35electricity and mobile networks went
1:37down. In the mountaneous areas of Kyber
1:40Pakuna and Gilgit Baltistan, flash
1:42floods in mid August left at least 634
1:46confirmed dead. Over 200 in Bonet
1:49district alone. Entire villages were
1:51swept away and thousands were displaced.
1:54Homes, roads, schools, and water systems
1:56are gone. Children make up a tragic
1:58share of casualties. Scientists warned
2:00that climate change has intensified
2:02rainfall by nearly a quarter, making
2:04floods both deadlier and more frequent.
2:07And the rains aren't over. Further
2:09downpours could trigger more floods,
2:10landslides, and service disruptions in
2:12the days to come. On today's show, we
2:15bring you two perspectives. From KP
2:17reporter Zahed describes the devastation
2:20in Savad and Buner. From lives lost to
2:23farms and markets buried to survivors
2:25still demanding rescue. And from climate
2:28scientist Dr. Dr. Hassanabas, we will
2:30learn how this year's Lanina cycle made
2:32worse by climate change has collided
2:34with poor planning and governance to
2:37magnify destruction. He also lays out
2:39what Pakistan must do. Adaptation,
2:42zoning and community preparedness before
2:44the next year monsoons hits us. Let's
2:46begin in Kyra Pakuna. This is one of the
2:49worst affected regions where villages
2:51and businesses have been torn apart. We
2:54spoke with journalist Zahedad about what
2:56life looks like right now on the ground.
2:58>> Hello Zahed Sab. Thank you so much for
3:00taking out the time and thank you so
3:01much for being here. So I'm going to
3:03start quickly by asking you the
3:04questions. Can you please explain the
3:06situation in KPK right now and can you
3:09please tell us what life looks like
3:10right now for families who have been
3:12impacted by floods in KPK?
3:16>> Um exactly. Uh the devastating floods
3:19have badly impacted uh two areas in KPK
3:22right now. The one is bun swad swad has
3:25a long history of being affected by
3:27floods but bun this time is the very
3:29first time that it has shown some
3:31devastating uh flood effects over there
3:34mainly as the tall of deaths right now
3:37over here is uh almost it has crossed
3:39it's about nearly 400 uh as per pdma
3:43fresh reports I'm having 393
3:46uh people are dead due to these floods
3:49uh overall uh these uh areas mainly uh
3:53which is mostly affected right now
4:05or bun areas in generally
4:09if we give it a bird eye view Swad has
4:13financial damages while Buner is
4:15suffering from human losses at the
4:17moment. So uh these two areas have been
4:20mostly impacted right now but the people
4:23over there uh if I talk of their mind uh
4:27their impact on their uh psychological
4:29impact so uh this thing is very uh
4:33shocking that uh these floods have put a
4:36huge uh psychological impact on the
4:39people. uh whenever we use we get
4:42interacted with them uh we get an idea
4:45uh that that that these people still
4:47can't believe what happened right
4:53in shock and drama right now the
4:55government have also shaped up a
4:57psychological uh psychology team
5:00consisting of different psychologists
5:02and they're moving that team to those
5:04flood hit areas in order to cater the
5:06people psychologically
5:09issue
5:14[Music]
5:22flood areas.
5:28Those areas should be cleared from uh
5:31constructions and uh the
5:34buildings area residential or
5:56The administration, the government have
5:58failed to clear those areas.
6:04history.
6:15Shockingly and surprisingly,
6:26larger campign
6:35Recently
6:3918 people lost their life.
6:45Unfortunate.
7:11local journalist
7:17footmin.
7:30ministrative services.
7:35It is beyond their capacity.
8:06Definitely. It's a very big challenge.
8:28So those areas are meant to be cleared
8:31as soon as possible. Rehabilitation
8:46neighboring districts
8:59Heavy machinery.
9:17Thank you so much for this detailed
9:18analysis and for providing us the actual
9:21situation on the ground. So from your um
9:24analysis I can conclude that Savad and
9:26Baneer are the worst hit areas. Right.
9:29Um another question I have from you is
9:31that have you also personally witnessed
9:33any damage
9:36in these areas?
9:37>> Yeah. Uh if we talk of specifically Swat
9:41and uh of Boner, they are agriculture
9:44based areas as well. uh um along with
9:47businesses uh they are mainly boner is
9:50strongly dependent upon agricultural
9:52activities and their income solely are
9:55from the large chunk of income is from
9:58agricultural activities. I'm having a
10:00report uh which was shared with me by
10:02the agriculture department. According to
10:04this report uh Buner has the most uh
10:08impacted area in com uh in context to
10:11agriculture activities over 26,000
10:15uh acres of agricultural land crops has
10:18been destroyed. The second area um is of
10:22lower Swad and uh this according to this
10:25report I'm having holding right now uh
10:27two districts of Swad Kabal and Bur
10:30Court two cases of Swad and uh Burkot
10:32and uh Kabal has been uh badly affected
10:37and almost uh in Sw,000
10:41acres of crops have been destroyed. So
10:44uh at the moment uh this agricultural
10:46damage uh has been impacted and the
10:49effects of this damage will last uh for
10:52longer. Um we even spoke to the
10:55agriculture minister who visited the
10:58area and after a thorough inspection uh
11:01he concluded and he compiled that uh the
11:04damages are quite much more and this is
11:08increasing as the survey is still going
11:10on regarding the agriculture damages. uh
11:13solely. Uh so a task force has been
11:15defined has been uh uh initiated uh to
11:19fulfill the damages and to calculate
11:21them uh in order to start the
11:23rehabilitation process in terms of
11:24agricultural uh in Swat. If I talk of
11:27Swat, Mingora is the area uh which was
11:30badly affected. Uh the flash flood came
11:34from Marggoar. Marggoar is a center area
11:37between uh it's a mountaneous area and
11:40it's a bordering area we can call it. uh
11:43between Buner and Swad. Now the flash
11:45flood took place uh in Marggoar area.
11:48Half of it split into Buner and the rest
11:51split into Swat Mangora. So Mangora is a
11:54business hub of Swat and uh even
11:57billions of businesses being uh um uh is
12:01being done over there in that area of
12:04various uh import uh and export uh
12:07different business are already situated
12:09over there. So uh uh I just spoke to a
12:11trader over there uh early this morning.
12:14I was I just tried to uh uh had a view
12:17of over there. He told me that u the the
12:20factories we had, the shops we had, the
12:23markets we had, it is filled with mud
12:25right now and uh the products we had in
12:28our uh stores. So we don't have even a
12:31single uh product being left with us. So
12:34this is calculating now the government
12:36hasn't calculated that what the actual
12:38uh business loss is in swat but still it
12:42is in billions and the rehabilitation
12:44process I believe uh this removing of
12:48mud rocks will take a month as uh I
12:52witnessed the area uh I can see I just
12:54saw uh the damages and clearing the area
12:58rehabilitating it uh just clearing the
13:01mud and this rock this will take more
13:04than a month right now.
13:06>> Absolutely. I think Pakistan was already
13:08facing an economic crisis and with these
13:102025 floods, I think the economic crisis
13:13will definitely get deeper and of course
13:15like you said, it will take some time
13:17for the government to actually come up
13:18with an actual figure of the damages
13:20that we have faced. What we can do right
13:23now is just hope for the best and you
13:24know we hope that people over there also
13:26get support and help as soon as
13:28possible. Another question that I have
13:30from you is that what is it that people
13:32need the most right now? Is it food? Is
13:34it shelter? Is it medical supplies?
13:37>> Uh Mahind uh one thing even I uh
13:40mentioned before uh the people over
13:42there are not uh complaining about the
13:45food. They are not complaining about the
13:47medical uh assistance. The only thing
13:50they are complaining about is to boost
13:52up the rescue uh operations. Still there
13:56are people missing and that has been uh
14:00psychologically that the the missing
14:02persons have really uh badly impacted
14:05the people over there. They are just uh
14:08demanding the government even I
14:09mentioned before the government is over
14:11there acting with full capacity. Even
14:14the police resources have been engaged
14:16uh uh simultaneously.
14:19uh police have even deployed their full
14:21capacity resources to uh to boost up the
14:25uh rescue operations but the people at
14:27the first they are demanding to boost up
14:30the rescue operation and to finish it up
14:32as soon as possible. Afterwards they are
14:34demanding that the uh area or the
14:38damages should be calculated and per per
14:41home or or or per uh uh even a singular
14:44person the damages should be calculated
14:47and the people must be compensated
14:49according to that. These two are the
14:51main demands. We even spoke to the NOS's
14:55working over there. I even spoke to the
14:58rescue uh
15:01different uh people working for rescue
15:04over there being conducted being
15:06involved in the operations. They told me
15:08that uh food is over here it is coming
15:11in quite a handsome amount. Uh medical
15:14assistance has been given by the
15:15government. Even doctors from uh the
15:19puktuna main capital Pavar has been
15:22teamed up over there and they are still
15:24building the medical capacity over
15:25there. government. Just early even I
15:27spoke to the minister Atsham Ali
15:30regarding health. Uh he even told us
15:32that a government is building a capacity
15:34medical capacity over there and they
15:36have pipelineed a hospital as well that
15:39is consistent hospital according to him
15:42that consists of 150 beds. Uh but
15:44overall uh the flood water is causing
15:47diseases over there as well and uh those
15:49diseases have badly impacted the people
15:51over there. uh um around uh according to
15:54the minister I spoke earlier he told me
15:56that uh 150 health services emergencies
15:59have been served so far and the diseases
16:02consists of diarrhea and uh several
16:04other waterborn diseases. Now uh
16:07government is planning uh the especially
16:09the health sector is planning to cater
16:11that uh devastating uh bloodborn
16:14diseases even uh to not get uh
16:18much more enumbered. So therefore uh
16:21things challenges are being developed.
16:23Uh uh with each day different challenges
16:26are being emerged and uh the overall
16:29view if I talk about is the government
16:31is struggling is struggling to cater uh
16:34those uh challenges but somehow uh the
16:38capacity uh building it is needed uh to
16:41build the rescue capacity and uh
16:44government is over overall thinking
16:46about that as well. funds have been
16:47released to the flood hit areas but
16:50still we need an intense uh rescue
16:52operation in order the people are over
16:54there demanding that in the first phase
16:56finish up the rescue operation and then
16:58calculate the damages and rehabilitate
17:00uh rehabilitate us. So we can conclude
17:03that the provincial government and the
17:04local administration are indeed
17:06responding but of course they can do
17:08more capacity building and um the only
17:11gap that I mean I'm sure there are many
17:13gaps as well but I think the main gap
17:15that you've highlighted is and what
17:17people are demanding as well is that the
17:19relief efforts should reach people in
17:22time right so this is the overall
17:24conclusion that you've given us thank
17:25you so much for that uh my last question
17:27to you is that do you see any presence
17:29of government aid or nos's on the ground
17:32you've already spoken about the
17:33government aid coming in and you've
17:34already spoken about the NGOs's as well
17:36but can you please tell us more about
17:38the presence of these organizations of
17:40the government and the NOS's
17:42>> exactly u I'll add this one as well over
17:45here at this moment uh one of an NGO one
17:48of a person called even me who's running
17:50an NGO uh and he demanded me that if you
17:53can initiate or if you can get in
17:55contact with some administration uh to
17:57let us to give us some space to
18:00establish uh medical relief camp over
18:03there. The NOS's are actively being uh
18:06uh conducted conducting their services
18:08in those areas. But uh most uh
18:11importantly as I spoke even earlier that
18:14the reason is the medical facilities are
18:18being enough in number uh some NOS's are
18:20being uh into it and they are very
18:23precisely and smartly working over it.
18:26The government even is has deployed has
18:28implemented and uh has already engaged
18:32it uh its uh all resources in terms of
18:35health and uh rescue operations but
18:38overall the machinery is needed at the
18:41moment. Now nos I've seen u very limited
18:45um a few might have these
18:48uh heavy machineries to remove uh the
18:51soil mud out of the building residential
18:53areas markets and uh exactly the rocks
18:56uh mainly in bun so machinery is much
18:59more needed now uh uh nos's don't have I
19:03don't see we haven't witnessed any NOS's
19:06uh building up over there in terms of
19:08machinery uh taking rescue services in
19:11terms of machinery with heavy machinery
19:13uh because if you talk of Bonire uh it
19:16is a very far-flung area uh it is in
19:19between the uh rock mountains and
19:22already the uh communication system over
19:24there has been badly damaged in terms of
19:27roads bridges and other communication
19:30mobile signals net signals so over there
19:33carriages have been are much more
19:35intense now uh NOS's are there
19:38government is actively uh um uh
19:41conducting its rescue and other uh
19:44services. But the main thing is that a
19:47heavy machinery is needed right now to
19:50just clear the area and through uh the
19:52the buildings that are already being
19:55submerged. So overall NGOs's are there
19:58but government is also over there but
20:00there is need of much more heavy
20:01machineries over there because the area
20:03that is of consisting of rock mountains
20:06and uh it's a very far-flung area over
20:08there. So I can conclude that basically
20:11we need more aid from both sides in
20:13terms of the heavy machinery because
20:14that's something that you've mentioned
20:16again and again and that's something
20:18that's going to actually take a lot of
20:19time as well and until and unless that
20:21does not get solved a lot of things will
20:24be at a standstill because that's major
20:26issues that people in KPK are facing
20:29right now right
20:30>> yes exactly uh um at day one even we uh
20:34as I spoke earlier uh what we saw in
20:372022 the floods of 2022 to uh things it
20:41was intense even though uh the areas uh
20:44that are followed after swat is charada
20:46and Marddan now uh whenever flood hit
20:50the swad area the effect of this uh
20:53these floods do impact charada mdan swat
20:56as well but this time it didn't even
20:58impact it though uh the water level was
21:01high uh as compared to 2022 but the
21:04damages here were very rarely reported
21:07as the rescue services were uh um were
21:11almost uh they were in ready uh to cater
21:14those damages. Uh but u since this flood
21:18this uh 2025 floods that took uh place
21:21uh the areas the solely areas much were
21:24were damaged were this swat and bun. So
21:28uh in terms of damages uh government had
21:31to focus on few areas as compared to
21:342022 floodings because it was across the
21:37province and even the southern districts
21:39of Karuna were were badly devastated by
21:41the floods in 2022. But um I it is very
21:45surprisingly that this time the damages
21:48are more but the area uh uh being hit
21:51are less in number as compared to 2022.
21:54So therefore uh in my opinion what I
21:56just saw the if I talk of generally the
21:59whole situation uh government uh needs
22:02to engage as the damage hit areas are
22:05lesser in number as compared to 2022. So
22:08in my opinion government must actively
22:10and more successfully should react to
22:13this these damages. I agree with you and
22:16I think that this is something that we
22:17will face every year because there's so
22:19many vulnerable regions and communities
22:21out there and I think it's time that we
22:23take the situation very seriously.
22:26>> Uh Mahin one thing I just want to
22:28mention over here. Uh this has become a
22:32routine now. It's been uh every year we
22:34are just witnessing floods or uh rains
22:38that are much more damaging and this is
22:40solely because of the climate change in
22:43the northern areas consisting of swad
22:47diir buner deforestation has uh played
22:51its role and now we are just witnessing
22:54its impact right now uh in those areas
22:57uh even previously we have conducted
22:59stories we have narrated stories
23:00regarding the climate change and its
23:02effect. But uh according to my research
23:05on those areas, uh people are unaware
23:08about the climate change. What possibly
23:11are the impact and how this climate
23:13change will damage them, will impact
23:15them. They are unaware of this. Now the
23:18government needs to play its role uh to
23:21in order to educate those people. Uh
23:24they are mainly uh uh um mostly those
23:28people uh the areas are remote areas. uh
23:32they are very far from urban areas now.
23:35Therefore these people are the the need
23:38is to educate those people regarding the
23:40climate change. Now it has become a
23:41global issue right now. Pakistan is
23:44witnessing uh a lot impact of climate
23:48change right now mainly the northern
23:50areas. I just want to add up uh
23:53yesterday I spoke to uh director general
23:55tourism uh he told me the figure he
23:58shared with me are really uh something
24:00shocking he just added that this year uh
24:04um even it is a peak season of tourism
24:07in kabarakuna they have witnessed 50% of
24:11decline in tourism according to their
24:14workout uh the reason for this decline
24:16is that uh people uh are having some
24:20horrific uh effects. Uh mentally they
24:24are are being scared or frightened of
24:28the uh devastating effect. Lastly, a few
24:31weeks ago uh Gilgit, Balistthan
24:35bordering area even Babu top we just
24:38witnessed the flash flooding over there.
24:40Still bodies are missing. Uh there are
24:43couple of bodies that have have not been
24:45even searched yet and they are missing.
24:48So this is uh this this thing is this
24:51climate change and its uh devastating
24:54effect is even psychologically impacting
24:56the tourism sector over here. So grow a
25:01lot in tourism sector in the past five
25:03to six years but climate change is uh
25:07acting as if uh is is acting and
25:10damaging this tourism sector over there.
25:12We mentioned earlier Kabar Puknuma is
25:14even facing terrorism issues but in
25:16those areas northern areas um several
25:19efforts being made and those areas have
25:22been secured. Now tourism in the past
25:24few years uh has flourished in those
25:27areas. uh people from abroad and local
25:30tourism have even uh boosted up but it
25:34is more climate change has is more uh
25:38dangerously uh impacting tourism as
25:41compared to it used to the terrorism did
25:43it. So overall uh these areas um are
25:48suff suffering economically as well
25:50because the businesses was tourism and
25:53agricultural mainly. Now those two
25:56sectors are badly being impacted by the
25:58climate change and its effects.
26:00>> I agree with you. Uh unfortunately
26:02climate change has become a sad reality
26:04especially in 2025 to understand why
26:07floods are hitting both north and south
26:09at the same time and what solutions
26:11exist. We spoke with Dr. Hassan Nabas a
26:14leading hydraologist and climate expert.
26:17>> Asam Hassan Sab thank you so much for
26:19joining us today. So right now floods
26:21are happening both in north in places
26:24like Gilgit Baltistan and KPK and
26:26they're also happening in south in
26:28cities like Kirachi. So my first
26:31question to you is that why do you think
26:33that such different parts of the country
26:35are flooding at the same time?
26:38>> This is a system which is called monsoon
26:40and this is a large system. It uh covers
26:44all of Asia, all of uh like from China
26:49to far east to places of Japan, then
26:54Burma, Thailand,
26:56Singapore and all the way to Pakistan
27:00along the Himalayan mountains from uh
27:03Karachi to so this is this is a large
27:06system and it's it's a global system. So
27:10uh it's it's not at all surprising that
27:12uh it is covering uh not just all parts
27:15of Pakistan but so many parts of India
27:18simultaneously, so many parts of China
27:20simultaneously. So this is a global
27:22system is uh which is just doing what it
27:26had been doing for the last uh maybe 30
27:29million years.
27:30>> Um and it's something that needs to be
27:32analyzed differently for all regions
27:34because it's something that impacts all
27:35regions in a very different manner. So
27:37my second question to you would be that
27:39how much of this crisis do you think is
27:41related to climate change and how much
27:44of this crisis do you think is actually
27:45related to poor and weak policym
27:48planning and governance?
27:50>> This is a very good question actually uh
27:53it is to some extent uh related to
27:57climate change as far as the system and
28:00these clouds are concerned uh but not
28:03entirely to climate change. uh the the
28:06the current monsoon which we feel is
28:08slightly heavier than what we
28:11experienced in past few years
28:14is because of uh uh not exactly climate
28:18change but because of a phenomena which
28:21happens in uh the Pacific Ocean which is
28:25called ENSO uh Elino southern
28:27oscillation.
28:29uh this ENSO has three uh kind of uh
28:34uh positions. One is lanina, another one
28:38is Enso neutral and another is uh El
28:42Nino. When El Nino consists
28:47and it has to do something with the
28:49temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. So
28:52when the Pacific Ocean becomes very hot
28:54on the surface, this is El Nino
28:56conditions. It basically weakens Asian
29:00monsoon and we are part of Asian
29:02monsoon. Ensone neutral conditions our
29:06monsoon is good and leninia conditions
29:10our monsoon gets pretty strong and now
29:14recently uh the the from neutral we are
29:20entering into uh lanina conditions which
29:23which is making this monsoon stronger
29:25and and these cycles of uh El Nino and
29:29Lanina uh they are not on a very regular
29:32frequency but average 3 to 5 years or 5
29:36to seven years they shift between each
29:38other. So we have come out of that uh El
29:41Nino cycles and now we are entering into
29:43Lanina cycles which at this point the
29:46current models are telling us that will
29:48likely to persist for at least one more
29:50year. So if we are getting a very good
29:53or or a heavy monsoon this year, so
29:55likely there is a similar kind of
29:57monsoon we are expecting next year and
30:00then if the the conditions they go back
30:03to and so neutral and then back to El
30:05Nino maybe few years later we'll be
30:08getting much less rains. So it is not
30:11just that it's the climate change it's
30:13it's that Enzo cycle which is primarily
30:16causing it but then Enso cycle uh and
30:19its intensity is definitely impacted by
30:21climate change. So if it was not climate
30:25change maybe we would be getting these
30:27heavier rains but slightly less heavy
30:29but uh this is the cycle of leninia
30:33which is primarily responsible for
30:35heavier monsoons. So just putting it
30:38everything on climate change is uh may
30:41not be entirely correct. And then you
30:44mentioned about the governance part.
30:46Well
30:47uh all the flood damages that you are
30:51seeing right now is almost entirely due
30:55to governance. It has nothing to do with
30:58the with the intensity of rains because
31:00this is these intensity of rains are of
31:04course high but they are not abnormal.
31:10They are not unprecedented. This kind of
31:14flooding we have seen before. This kind
31:16of intensities this region had been
31:18witnessing before. But why it is more
31:21visible and more destructive or at least
31:23it looks more visible and more
31:25destructive this time around? Um I think
31:28there are two reasons for it. One that
31:32just 10 years ago there were not as many
31:34video cameras in the pockets of the
31:37people as there are now. So every time
31:40there something dramatic happens it is
31:43caught on some cameras and whatever is
31:45more dramatic just gets viral on the
31:48social media and is seen by all
31:52I mean I I remember my childhood or or
31:55or even my youth's age you know when we
31:58would go to these mountains and stuff
31:59and some old man in his 80s or 90s would
32:03tell us that hey you see that mark over
32:06there 50 years ago there was a flood
32:09water that was rising that mark and and
32:11touching that mark and we would be
32:13surprised. Oh wow, this is such a wide
32:15valley and there's a small river and to
32:17that extent it was all water that looked
32:20unbelievable. But then as a geologist
32:23and as a hydro geologist we learned how
32:26to go and see a mountain, a stream and
32:30look at the footprint which is
32:32geological footprint and the size of
32:34stones which which you see on ground.
32:37What forces moved those stones? Uh
32:40brought those stones at a certain place
32:43from where was the parent rock from
32:44which it broke off? How it rolled? What
32:47rolled it? How much energy of water was
32:50there. So then we define that oh this is
32:53a high energy stream. This can bring
32:55that much of water. Even without any uh
32:59recorded data, we can approximately tell
33:02maybe with an accuracy of 80 to 90% that
33:05this stream can have that much of energy
33:06in a flow and that much that that size
33:09of debris would actually be flowing in
33:11there. But now our job has become much
33:14easier because of these uh recordings by
33:16the people because we have seen uh
33:21mud flow, muck flow and the and and the
33:25flows where big boulders and stones are
33:27moving. So now before we we had to tell
33:31people that this can happen now people
33:33can see that this happens. So it makes
33:36makes our job much easier. uh and the
33:38destruction is primarily I think because
33:41of our bad development models uh because
33:45uh we have gone too close to those
33:48streams like couple of years ago uh I
33:51was traveling with my friends in this
33:53Naran valley which leads all the way to
33:55Babusa top and we were surprised to see
33:59it's a very wide river bed even a blind
34:02person can see that the the the marks of
34:05the river the extent of the marks of the
34:08river. But on the side of the road,
34:10every now and then we will come across
34:12an area where a boundary wall was being
34:15you know set up within which they were
34:17filling the the area to raise it to the
34:20level of the road and then in in in last
34:23few years those areas have been uh
34:27converted into tourist spots with hotels
34:29and motels and parking places and stuff.
34:32And we can see that if there is a a
34:37stone on the side of the river which is
34:39say uh one uh foot in diameter it's
34:43rounded.
34:45It didn't you know fell from sky. It was
34:48brought there for the from with the
34:51forces of the river. That means the
34:52extent of the river flow with its energy
34:56level has already been marked there. But
34:59when you ignore this, you don't
35:00understand this and you just put
35:03construction and physical and that thing
35:06happens. Maybe it happens once in a 100
35:08years or once in a 50 years uh time that
35:12has happened and then that tragedy takes
35:15place where people with their properties
35:18with their vehicles with their uh loved
35:21ones children and everyone they come uh
35:25in in that deluge and and and and
35:28there's nowhere to go. So it is
35:30basically all the and and and living
35:33aside northern areas come down to
35:35Islamabad
35:37what happens you see this very famous
35:39SPU village uh you you see there are
35:43cars being washed away in a stream right
35:45in the center of the market and if you
35:48look at that there are two walls erected
35:51within a waterway which was very clearly
35:54marked by nature it was reduced to
35:56onetenth of its size so uh it is the
36:00room for the river that has been
36:02encroached in everywhere that you see
36:05you are too close your construction is
36:07too close to the river I think that
36:08needs to change now and that needs to
36:10change up very seriously because now we
36:13are losing lives I mean there's no price
36:16we can put on any single life let alone
36:19hundreds of lives being lost at one
36:22locality
36:23in one event this is this this is not
36:26acceptable we have to get very serious
36:28about about it now. Yes.
36:30>> Um you also mentioned that of course
36:31like this is not the first time that
36:33Pakistan is facing floods. You know in
36:352022 also we had extremely devastating
36:37floods but why is it that we're always
36:40so unprepared and what warnings or
36:42reforms do you think that we can
36:44actually adopt to make a difference? Uh
36:46look as far as adaptation is concerned I
36:49think uh we are still living with the
36:52mindset of the 20th century and and the
36:56first half of 20th century where after
36:59the successful completion of Hoover Dam
37:02the mankind or the human beings they
37:05thought that this is the now now we can
37:07conquer nature but nature is still
37:10bigger than us not just bigger than us
37:13much much much bigger than
37:16And today's global mind is to respect
37:19the nature and adapt with the nature. Uh
37:24the terminologies has evolved and
37:25changed. Before they said flood control,
37:29then they said flood management and now
37:32they say flood adaptation. And I think
37:35that is the most sustainable mindset
37:37that we must adapt ourself to the
37:40floods. Uh what we need to do in
37:43Pakistan is we must leave room for the
37:46river which is not a rocket science in
37:50the current uh knowledge base with uh
37:54modern tools of computing and data
37:57collection and satellite imaging imaging
38:00and numerical modeling and climate
38:03modeling. All those things combined
38:05together can give you the zones of flood
38:09hazard and within those zones you have
38:12to adapt accordingly. Like for example
38:16uh I had some experience of working in
38:18some uh advanced countries where uh
38:21these uh modern uh thinking where this
38:25modern thinking has evolved. What they
38:27do is they say okay if this is a zone
38:30where every 5 years flood will hit you
38:33will not construct anything permanent in
38:36this area but you will still use that
38:38zone because in once in 5 years only in
38:42the flood season this place will be
38:43flooded. What about the rest of the four
38:46years and uh 8 months?
38:50You should not just leave it alone. You
38:51can still use it. You can put their
38:54tracking areas, bicycles and jogging
38:57tracks, uh bird watching areas, uh
39:02submersible pathways,
39:04uh and and things like that. So when
39:07when flood happens, nothing happens to
39:09your infrastructure and uh and very
39:12little infrastructure is built which is
39:14all of the standards of being being
39:18submersible and then recoverable.
39:20But then you enter in the next zone
39:22which is say the 20 year zone. There you
39:25can do maybe construction. You maybe you
39:27are allowed to build your houses and
39:29stuff and uh things like that and and
39:32and and but but again because you know
39:35that once in 20 years you could be hit
39:36by floods. So for example, basements are
39:40not allowed which could be flooded and
39:43every house that you build where the
39:45residents are supposed to live should be
39:48built in in in a doublestory fashion so
39:51that when when the the place is
39:53submerged with flood there is an upper
39:55story where you can easily survive and
39:59there's a specification of the upper
40:00story and the lower story that in the
40:02lower story any electrical appliances
40:04and things they should be waterproof And
40:07then on the upper story you should have
40:09complete uh essentials available in that
40:13accommodation like a kitchen and and a
40:14working wash washroom. And then when
40:17there is a season of flooding the
40:20residents are uh aware of it and they
40:23can for example store more rations for
40:25them and stuff. So and and and
40:28communication and and alternate energy
40:30systems uh uh and and and even I've seen
40:33that people actually keep boats in those
40:36areas so that uh in in in case of
40:39emergency they can still move around. So
40:42uh uh and and then within those areas uh
40:45one that every household does its own uh
40:48flood adaptation then for the community
40:52what they do is they create areas which
40:55are higher than the flood levels and
40:58they convert into like sports arenas,
41:00sports grounds or even schools and
41:03colleges and community buildings. They
41:05are built in those areas. they are built
41:08a bit more expensively because they are
41:10raised and and they stay above the flood
41:12level and and in case of an emergency
41:15for example the emergency level is for
41:18example green so you don't have to do
41:20anything and you can stay in your home
41:22but be prepared but if the emergency
41:25level is orange then you have to move
41:27your family to an emergency shelter and
41:31the family would know that if I live in
41:34street number one of
41:37uh in house number three of street
41:39number one I would move to area where
41:43there is the school number four in which
41:45barrack number five and room number six
41:47is dedicated for my family and then
41:49there is whole emergency setup in which
41:53there are registered volunteers
41:56uh who would actually manage so many
41:58things and they are from the community
42:00so there's fullfledged community
42:02involvement plus an oversight and
42:06support by the government. So it is not
42:08that uh like there there's a wrong
42:11perception in in our country that
42:14probably if anything happens it is the
42:16it is the duty of NDMA to move from
42:19Islamabad go to a certain area and then
42:23do all the research and relief and
42:25rescue operations over there. No the
42:28community involvement is the foremost.
42:31So that is the kind of adaptation that
42:34we need to do on the community level and
42:39then the planning it has certain layers
42:43and the last thing that you do is relief
42:46and discovery uh and recovery. So it
42:49starts from the awareness then the
42:52planning then the within that planning
42:54specifications then the
42:58the the the
43:00mechanisms of early warnings and
43:02everything and last that after passing
43:04through all these lines of defense if
43:06somebody is still hit and needs to be
43:10rescued then those rescue forces would
43:14kick in. And finally once you take a
43:17rescue a person from a certain locality
43:21where that rescue team would go
43:24which is the hospital which is the area
43:27where they they get relief how the
43:29medicines are managed. So what we are
43:33seeing right now is that all the other
43:37uh you know layers
43:41or or the lines of defense I would use
43:43this term lines of defense all the lines
43:46of defense are missing and the last line
43:48of defense which is relief and rescue
43:51the only thing that we see is there I
43:53mean I appreciate our relief and rescue
43:56teams uh from Pakistan army to police
44:00forces to parame community forces to the
44:02to the community volunteers. Everyone is
44:04doing a wonderful job. But uh their job
44:08would have been much much much reduced
44:11if other layers of uh defense were also
44:15in place. So we are starting with the
44:18last line of defense and probably that
44:22is our only line of defense currently.
44:26This has to change. this has to you know
44:29transform uh into a very different way
44:32and and all these things are not a
44:35rocket science. I mean educating the
44:37community is not difficult. Uh I mean of
44:41course our society is less educated than
44:45a society in the west. But I tell you
44:48that if you call the head of a family
44:52and explain him that if the siren is
44:55like this or mobile phone signal is like
44:57this or a hooter is blown like this,
45:02this is what you have to do in order to
45:04save your family. So I think uh we can
45:06do it if if we start thinking on this.
45:09>> Thank you so much for this extremely
45:10insightful analysis. I think it also
45:13boils down to the fact that we need to
45:14actually start um prioritizing
45:16adaptation and giving adaptation more
45:18funding also because we see in our
45:20federal budget as well that often
45:23mitigation and you know mitigation
45:25projects they get more funding than
45:26adaptation. So my next question to you
45:28would be that in your view are provinces
45:31like sin KP and Gilgit Baltistan getting
45:34the resources and support that they need
45:36from the federal government? Of course
45:38uh these adaptation plans they need
45:41funding for everything but I think the
45:44first thing the funding should go into
45:47is the planning
45:50and planning means every area every
45:55district every stream every village
45:57beside that stream is different from the
46:00other everything is unique. So there has
46:04to be a hierarchy of uh planning and
46:08instructions which should be implemented
46:12first planned then implemented and the
46:15planning involves like a framework is
46:18given by for example NDMA sitting here
46:20in the uh federal capital to all the
46:24provinces
46:26and within that framework all the
46:28provinces should develop their
46:30provincial policies and plans. Then the
46:33next level is district level. Then the
46:36from within a provincial framework the
46:38district should do its own things and
46:40from districts to municipalities down to
46:43every single village and uh that uh
46:48planning should keep on involving people
46:52down to every family which is in a
46:55certain hazard zone. And that the way
46:59this planning is to be done, the way
47:01zoning should be done that should be
47:05given by the higherups and then it
47:08should be implemented by every
47:09municipality. So it is basically
47:13the local governments and the community
47:17which has to ultimately work together
47:20within the framework given by the uh
47:23higher echelons and that is where the
47:26first round of funding should go and it
47:30should be made mandatory for every
47:35municipality to submit their plan before
47:38the next onset of
47:41uh this flooding season. Uh there has to
47:45be an urgency in this. And even if you
47:48do nothing, you don't modify your
47:51building code, you still have the houses
47:53there right next to the river, you may
47:55still be living in a in a shelter or in
47:57a house which was rebuilt after the uh
48:01this year's flood destroyed it and you
48:03you built it at the same place and and
48:05but if even only if you know that you
48:10are in a zone which is under threat
48:13under certain conditions and you just
48:15have that early warning systems through
48:20your mobile phones or through sirens or
48:23alarms that thing can still be managed
48:27and implemented within our own resources
48:30without any external funding. I think uh
48:34uh to the communities which are in the
48:36vulnerable zones and the awareness
48:40uh through media and through schools and
48:42through uh community institutions like
48:45mosques and places of worship and you
48:49know that must be there for uh in in in
48:52every for example congregation of Eid
48:56where the whole community gets together
48:58uh in in in the in the religious a
49:02sermon which is given people are made
49:04aware that well we are a community we
49:06live together and we have to be aware of
49:08these things. So there there are so many
49:11community uh events in which you can
49:14actually
49:15uh explain and and make the community
49:18aware and I think with the with the
49:20invention of this social media and
49:23current uh technology uh uh I think this
49:27job is not at all
49:29difficult let alone impossible. So we
49:32can we can do it.
49:35>> And do you think all the provinces such
49:37as KPK, Gilgit, Baltistasan and Si are
49:39they getting equal support when it comes
49:42to the resources um that they need to
49:45tackle climate change?
49:47>> I think where there's a will, there's a
49:48way.
49:49>> Yeah.
49:49>> If a local government is interested in
49:52saving its citizens,
49:54it will manage it. that management is
49:58more dependent on your will to do it
50:02than the funds you need to do it. Funds
50:04can be created, funds can be accessed
50:09and funds are there. It's not that the
50:12funds are not there. We have so many
50:14funds, we have so many things. For
50:16example, uh we made some wrong decisions
50:20uh few years ago. uh we created uh we we
50:25put billions of dollars of investment in
50:27the projects which are not climate
50:29compatible. Two particular projects one
50:32in this uh Swat river area where Boner
50:35and all those things you know we are
50:38building a very large dam over there.
50:42Hundreds of millions have already gone
50:44in in last seven or eight years. But
50:46what did community get out of that uh
50:49investment
50:51uh to be safe from this uh
50:55re recent thing? If the same money was
50:57diverted into giving room to the river
51:00because we learned these things in as
51:03recent as 2010 floods and we are making
51:06decisions in 2018 which are again on the
51:09structures which are climate
51:11incompatible
51:12and then there had been some very
51:14misleading reports in the country like
51:17uh we will run out of water in 2025
51:21and based on that the people who
51:24actually sort of got that report created
51:27out of nowhere. No scientific data,
51:29nothing. And then that report was made
51:32uh uh was I mean blown up in in the
51:36media. Uh even the prime minister of
51:402018 made a national address and said
51:45that we are going to run out of water in
51:47the country in 2018 uh sorry 2025 and
51:51therefore we need to build dams. Those
51:53dams have not been built and 2025 is
51:56here. We are drowning in water and the
51:59investment of billions of dollars which
52:02is planned for that thing and out of
52:04which hundreds of millions have been
52:05spent are spent on climate incompatible
52:09projects.
52:11If the same money would have been
52:12diverted into climate compatible
52:15projects making the society more
52:17resilient and and and and based on the
52:20science of ENSO and Leninia and Lanina
52:26and climate science of changing climate,
52:29heat energy blah blah blah, room for the
52:32river uh and and and and projects like
52:35this. I think these tragedies could have
52:38been avoided uh in that region of KPK
52:42where we we we we saw the most
52:44devastating uh damages. Uh so I think
52:48it's it's now time that we get very
52:51serious about it. We should not be uh
52:55our decision makers should be careful uh
52:57and and they should be capable enough to
53:00sort out what is real and what is
53:03unreal. what is being pushed by the
53:06interest groups and what is being pushed
53:08in by the real science. If our decision
53:12makers have a mechanism to sort out from
53:15the right investment
53:19uh to the wrong investment, they can
53:21differentiate between the two. I think
53:23that would save many lives in future.
53:25But if we still have this the same kind
53:29of mindset in our decision makers which
53:32can be easily fooled or tricked by the
53:35lobby they show you a report which is
53:38based on pseudocience 2025 we are going
53:40to run out of water you know I something
53:43which is scientifically impossible they
53:46built everything on that do the wrong
53:49investment and at the end of day
53:51hundreds of lives were lost now this is
53:53too serious we can't we just can't
53:56afford another folly like that. So, we
53:58have to be very careful.
54:00>> Like you said, when there's a will,
54:01there's a way. Yes.
54:02>> Um you could not have summed it in a
54:04it's you summed it up in a perfect
54:06manner and you're so right about that
54:08that when there's a will there's a way
54:09and all the reforms that you listed if
54:11we actually start from the first line of
54:13defense that you mentioned such as
54:15awareness, planning, risk mapping, of
54:18course a change can come back, a change
54:20can come come by. I think it's only a
54:22matter of time that we need to realize
54:23that climate change is something that
54:25needs a holistic approach. We need to
54:27stop operating in silos. We need to
54:29stop, you know, thinking that okay, this
54:31province will solve its own issue. It's
54:33just that we all have to come together
54:35to solve it. So, um, another question
54:37that I have from you is that what
54:39solutions or reforms that what solutions
54:41or reforms do you think can happen
54:44immediately to protect the vulnerable
54:46communities who have faced the floods
54:48right now?
54:49>> Okay. the most uh uh important and the
54:52most immediate thing is basically relief
54:54and rescue. So those people who have
54:56been displaced, those those whose houses
55:00and living places have been devastated
55:02by these floods, uh one of the most
55:05important thing is giving them shelter,
55:08giving them food and medicines and
55:11giving them clean drinking water and
55:14making sure that they get enough food,
55:17health and hygiene. And after this the
55:21next most important priority should be
55:23we should reestablish the schools for
55:25the children which have been lost
55:27because community education should be
55:30our top priority after maintaining a
55:34healthy body. That should be our next
55:37top priority. I think this is the most
55:39important thing and we should start
55:42investing in our people on the the the
55:46people who have been specially impacted
55:48on these things. After that we should be
55:52start looking at how the overall
55:55planning to face the next inevitable
55:58disasters should get into place and that
56:01planning starts right at the center in
56:04organizations like NDMA and other bigger
56:08organ bigger echelons where uh the
56:12planning starts and it should trickle
56:15down all the way to the local government
56:17level and the community level and down
56:19to household level. So those are the
56:22those are the lines on which we have to
56:24work. It should be done in a way uh that
56:28if
56:30for example by next floods at least the
56:34flood hazard zones are marked. Whether
56:37or not you are successful in relocating
56:39the people and businesses from the most
56:42vulnerable zones is a second priority.
56:45But at least that marking should be
56:46there and the community should know
56:49community most important the community
56:51should know and I tell you what there
56:54there are challenges in that and that is
56:56where our leadership and our top
57:00decision makers should make sure that
57:02this this doesn't happen because again
57:05we cannot allow any interest group to
57:07play with the lives of the people. So my
57:10last question to you would be that
57:13actually I think you've already answered
57:14it because you said that zoning and
57:17mapping is the most important thing that
57:19we should do before the next year
57:20monsoon which was actually uh my last
57:23question to you that if there's
57:24absolutely one step that you think must
57:27be taken before the next year monsoon
57:29what would that be would that be zoning
57:31planning and mapping the vulnerable
57:33regions
57:34>> yes uh I think I I I already elaborated
57:37on that uh that before the next disaster
57:41hits any area and and and it's not
57:44necessary that it would hit the same
57:46areas the areas which were hit in the
57:49previous monsoon the previous the next
57:51moonstone could be as similar as this
57:53one but the areas because this
57:56phenomenon of cloud burst that that that
57:58is something that is very important uh
58:01that we should understand how our system
58:04works at least at the planning level our
58:08experts who are doing all those
58:10planning, they should know that how our
58:13system works.
58:15And one of the things they should know
58:17is how that very intense shower of rain
58:22comes in like we experienced in Chakwal,
58:26like we experienced in parts of
58:27Islamabad, like we experienced I mean
58:29those are not
58:32very large area. I mean those are
58:35kindite quite localized things and if it
58:39happened in uh for example over a
58:43catchment which was in DHA5 in Islamabad
58:47this year it might happen uh in a
58:49catchment uh which is on E11 next year
58:53it's the same thing so it's not
58:55necessary uh that this would be a very
58:59large part but when a small part is
59:03impacted by a very heavy shower. What
59:06happens? Uh so every part within the
59:10municipalities
59:12should prepare as if what happened in
59:15for example DHA5
59:17this year will happen to them next year.
59:20So that kind of level and that
59:22understanding should always be there
59:25because this cloud bust phenomena is
59:27very difficult to predict because it's a
59:29very localized phenomena uh and and it
59:32in and in order to predict I mean
59:34scientifically it may be possible uh but
59:37practically it not may be doable because
59:40the amount of data for example for a
59:43so-called cloud bust to happen it not
59:45just involves the the size of cloud uh
59:50uh Uh it also involves a lot of factors
59:52which are happening on ground from air
59:55temperature to topography to soil
59:58moisture to vegetation type to air
1:00:02direction of air uh the the differential
1:00:05of air temperature on close to the
1:00:08surface and up in the clouds and the
1:00:11size of cloud and everything in a very
1:00:15small locality. Now we do not have that
1:00:17kind of instrumentation that can do
1:00:20everything and then there has to be an
1:00:22algorithm which takes all this data and
1:00:25then calculates if a cloud burst is
1:00:28going to happen or not. So it is not
1:00:31practicable even in the most advanced
1:00:33countries where they can kind of predict
1:00:36a cloud burst of the size that happened
1:00:38in Bonire or on a locality in Islamabad.
1:00:43But if people know that this thing can
1:00:46can happen and these are the three
1:00:48months within which this can happen and
1:00:51within these three months it will only
1:00:53happen when the cloud is big. So people
1:00:56are prepared. So you are most devastated
1:01:01when something happens which you are not
1:01:03expecting and you are totally taken by
1:01:06surprise. So if you just avoid being
1:01:09surprised,
1:01:11I think uh more than half the damage
1:01:14could be prevented. So that's the kind
1:01:16of things that we need to immediately do
1:01:20as the as the first step uh before the
1:01:24onset of next season.
1:01:27>> Thank you so much. I think it's time
1:01:29that we all step up together including
1:01:31the people, community, government,
1:01:32institutions, everyone because this is
1:01:34something that we will face every year.
1:01:37Thank you so much Hassan Sab for your
1:01:38insights. Thank you so much for
1:01:40providing us with such a detailed
1:01:41analysis and for providing us with such
1:01:43great information. So tonight we've
1:01:45heard two sides of the same crisis. The
1:01:47human toll from Kyber Pakuna, families
1:01:50displaced, farms washed away and markets
1:01:52buried and from Dr. about the wider
1:01:55context of how Lan Nina amplified by
1:01:58climate change turns far more deadly
1:02:00when poor planning and unsafe
1:02:01construction leaves communities exposed.
1:02:04We had also planned to bring you a
1:02:06ground report from Gilgit Paltistan but
1:02:08unfortunately connectivity issues
1:02:10prevented us from recording with our
1:02:12expert over there but we'll continue
1:02:14working to give you a full picture. For
1:02:17the extended coverage you can also find
1:02:19the longer version of this episode on
1:02:21Dawn News English YouTube channel.
1:02:23That's all for today. I'm your host
1:02:24Mahazam Khan. Take care and stay safe.

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