Pétrole : l’Arabie Saoudite avait un plan B mais… — Transcript

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1. 0:01This is the satellite image that caused
2. 0:03oil prices to jump even higher. A drone
3. 0:06strike on the pipeline that has become
4. 0:08vital for Saudi Arabia's oil exports to
5. 0:11the world. This station located along
6. 0:14the oil pipeline was almost completely
7. 0:16destroyed by drones. To put it simply,
8. 0:19this pipeline was the backup plan. A
9. 0:21breath of fresh air for a global oil
10. 0:23market under extreme tension with the
11. 0:25blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, using
12. 0:27massive pipes in the middle of the
13. 0:28desert. According to estimates, 4%of
14. 0:31global oil was transiting through it,
15. 0:33and the infrastructure has just been
16. 0:35shut down. A direct consequence: almost
17. 0:38no more Saudi oil for Europe in
18. 0:39September and October.
19. 0:42Well, for me, I thought this is truly
20. 0:44the start of big, big, big problems
21. 0:46heading our way. In this video, we
22. 0:49explain why this pipeline has become a
23. 0:52major issue for our fuel prices. In
24. 0:58fact, to understand the importance of
25. 1:00this pipeline, you first have to look
26. 1:01at where the oil production sites are
27. 1:03in Saudi Arabia, primarily in the east
28. 1:05of the country. That is why most of the
29. 1:08crude oil was leaving through the
30. 1:10Strait of Hormuz. Since that one is
31. 1:13blocked by Iran, Saudi Arabia had
32. 1:15something of a backup plan: sending the
33. 1:17oil to its west coast to reach the Red
34. 1:19Sea. And to do that, the Saudis built a
35. 1:24giant pipeline in the early 80s named
36. 1:26Petroline, 1,200 km long, through
37. 1:28desert areas.
38. 1:30I looked at Saudi Arabia as the central
39. 1:33bank of oil, meaning the only country
40. 1:35in the world that has the capacity to
41. 1:37have a plan A, a plan B, a plan C, or
42. 1:39even a plan D.
43. 1:41But the backup plan has taken a hit. On
44. 1:43September 10th, drones launched from
45. 1:45Iran targeted infrastructure essential
46. 1:47to the pipeline's operation. The
47. 1:49compression stations, this is the
48. 1:51structure before. And here is the
49. 1:54structure after the strike, almost
50. 1:56entirely charred. Further east, here is
51. 1:59compression station number 9, also hit.
52. 2:02Even further east, compression station
53. 2:05number 8 was also damaged. And without
54. 2:07these compression stations, as their
55. 2:09name suggests, there is no more
56. 2:10pressure in the pipes. The oil can no
57. 2:13longer circulate. For now, Saudi Arabia
58. 2:15has mentioned a temporary closure of
59. 2:17the pipeline for repairs, without
60. 2:19specifying the extent of the damage.
61. 2:21The Saudis are trying to be reassuring,
62. 2:23but our energy expert is more reserved.
63. 2:26Is it 6 weeks? Will it be a little long
64. 2:28, or will it be much more than that?
65. 2:30Was it just the pipeline that was
66. 2:32attacked, which could be repaired quite
67. 2:35quickly, or was an entire compression
68. 2:37station completely, uh, wiped out? And
69. 2:41and if you haven't bought your turbine
70. 2:43or don't have one on a shelf somewhere,
71. 2:45well, if they tell you it takes 3 years
72. 2:48to rebuild a turbine, it means your
73. 2:50pipeline might operate at a reduced
74. 2:51capacity for 3 years.
75. 2:53In response to the announcement, the
76. 2:55markets reacted, driving the price of a
77. 2:57barrel up to the 110-dollar level.
78. 3:00Saudi Arabia indicates that certain
79. 3:02deliveries to Europe will not be
80. 3:04honored in September and October, but
81. 3:06assures that it has alternatives. And
82. 3:09indeed, for now, oil is still leaving
83. 3:12the port city of Yanbu, the pipeline
84. 3:14terminal where oil reserves have been
85. 3:17stored. They can be exported via the
86. 3:20Suez Canal or via those pipelines that
87. 3:22cross Egypt. But inevitably, Yanbu is
88. 3:24now becoming a target, bombed by the
89. 3:26Houthis in recent days. It is clear
90. 3:45that if the pipeline no longer works,
91. 3:47well, the reserves in Yanbu will be
92. 3:49trapped, and at that point, north or
93. 3:51south, you won't be able to get through
94. 3:53.
95. 3:54With reserves in jeopardy, the question
96. 3:56now arises of a new solution if repairs
97. 3:59to the pipeline end up taking time.
98. 4:02Especially since the Bab el-Mandeb
99. 4:03Strait is also under high tension with
100. 4:05the presence of Houthi forces in the
101. 4:07area.
102. 4:07Well, they might risk returning via
103. 4:09Hormuz. Remember that the US military
104. 4:12says it is capable of trying to help
105. 4:14the, uh, ships get through Hormuz.
106. 4:17Perhaps Saudi Arabia is telling itself,
107. 4:19ultimately, I will return to Plan A,
108. 4:21the least bad of all the positions I
109. 4:23have.
110. 4:24In short, as you will have understood,
111. 4:26all of this is becoming very, very
112. 4:27complicated. The sequence actually
113. 4:29illustrates something even more lasting
114. 4:31. Saudi Arabia's inability to protect
115. 4:33its key oil production infrastructure
116. 4:35in the face of multiple threats
117. 4:37surrounding it. Iran, Iran's proxies in
118. 4:40Iraq, or the Houthis in Yemen.
119. 4:42According to Thierry Bros, the Iranian
120. 4:44objective is quite clear. Drive the
121. 4:47price of a barrel up to 150 dollars,
122. 4:49make the situation unmanageable, and
123. 4:51force Trump to negotiate from a
124. 4:53position of weakness. A strategy that
125. 4:55the Iranian regime is attempting to
126. 4:57implement methodically.