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Orderflow is USELESS... without THIS — Transcript

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0:00My name is Emry James and I've been a
0:01professional trader now for over 11
0:03years. And in this video, I'm going to
0:05show you [music] how I go about finding
0:09trades in the futures market using
0:11volume and market analysis. [music]
0:13My top-down process involves combining
0:15price action analysis with order flow
0:18tools such as volume profiles [music]
0:20and even footprint charts. And by the
0:22end of this video, you're going to know
0:23not just how to analyze the market to
0:25get ready for a trading session, but
0:27also the exact same steps that a
0:28professional trader uses to get into and
0:31out of trades. The first thing that I do
0:33whenever I'm thinking about trading the
0:35market is thinking a little bit bigger
0:37picture, longer term. What does that
0:39mean? Well, for me it comes down to what
0:41type of regime is the market currently
0:44in. Now, if you're a day trader, you
0:46might be asking yourself, "Well, why
0:47does it even matter what the market's
0:49doing based on a weekly, monthly
0:51perspective?" But from where I sit, that
0:54matters a lot because it tells me
0:56whether or not the biggest players in
0:58the world are actively trying to reprice
1:00the market higher or lower, or if
1:03they're still interested in doing
1:05business within a tightly confined
1:07trading range. That's why regime is so
1:09important. Now, there are two types of
1:11overall regimes. We have balanced
1:13regimes and imbalanced regimes. A
1:15balanced regime kind of looks like this.
1:19It's when a market
1:21isn't really moving value and we have
1:24value from day-to-day in the market
1:26profile that just goes sideways kind of
1:28like this. And we have a well-defined
1:30value area low and a well-defined value
1:33area high, and the market's unable to
1:35break significantly higher or lower. On
1:38the other hand, a trending regime is
1:40when the market is actively building
1:42value higher. And we can see the market
1:46is agreeing on fair value higher and
1:49higher and higher. Typically, this can
1:52look like a number of stacked little
1:54peas building an upwards trend. On the
1:57way down, it would be like stacked
1:59letter B's, kind of looking like this.
2:03Now, of course, there are many other
2:04types of trading profiles, but this is
2:07what I would consider to be absolutely
2:09textbook.
2:11Now, what's great about regime
2:12identification is that right away it
2:14does something super important. It
2:16allows me to decide ahead of time what
2:18types of trades, what types of
2:20techniques I want to use that are
2:22statistically more likely to be
2:24favorable in certain regime conditions
2:26versus others. For example, when a lot
2:28of traders first start out, they are
2:31attracted to breakout trading. And
2:33they're attracted to breakout trading
2:35because breakouts are visually very easy
2:37to recognize on a price chart. You find
2:39a level where the market struggled to
2:41break out of and you buy when the market
2:43crosses that level. But, these traders
2:46very quickly fall out of love with
2:47breakouts because they realize that most
2:49breakouts end up failing.
2:52The reason for that is simple. Most of
2:54the time a market isn't trading in an
2:57imbalance regime where we're just
2:59ripping higher or crashing lower. Most
3:01of the time markets trade in balance.
3:04And when we trade in balance, breakouts
3:07fail. In a balance regime, I want to
3:10look for trades that are value
3:12reverting. In other words, I want to
3:13sell the high and I want to buy the low.
3:16It's in a trending regime where
3:18breakouts are more likely to succeed.
3:21So, you see, regime identification has
3:23to be where it all starts because it's
3:25where we start putting the odds on our
3:27side in the first place. Now, I like to
3:30start off by looking at a weekly time
3:32frame and asking myself what type of
3:34regime are we overall in? And what we
3:37can see here are
3:38some very clear patterns. Over the last
3:41several weeks, what we've seen is the
3:44market build sideways for a significant
3:46amount of time and then we got a break
3:49higher. Whether that's going to continue
3:51this time around remains to be seen, but
3:54what's becoming very clear is that the
3:55market is having a hard time sustaining
3:58upward directional momentum for a
4:01significant period of time. In fact, the
4:03last time we broke out, we really only
4:05broke out for one good week before
4:07getting sucked back into an overall
4:10trading range. So, I would say that the
4:13regime here is currently overall
4:16imbalanced, but the momentum is slowing
4:19down. We're still making higher highs
4:21and higher lows, but
4:23it feels like we're pushing this huge
4:25boulder very slowly uphill, and for
4:28every foot we push it up, it seems to
4:30roll back three. Now, that's important
4:32because right away I know that breakout
4:35trades are less likely to be successful
4:38in this type of trading regime.
4:40So, once I've looked at the overall
4:42bigger picture, the next question I have
4:44to my ask myself is what is the market
4:47negotiating today? And this is where we
4:49get into the heart of auction market
4:50theory, which is the lens through which
4:53professional traders like myself view
4:55the market. Auction market theory just
4:57asks one very simple question, where is
5:00fair value? And have we currently found
5:02fair value, or are we in search of it?
5:05In other words, are we in a balanced
5:06regime or in an imbalanced one? But now
5:08we're going to take that question and
5:10refine it a little bit so that it's more
5:12applicable to our direct technical
5:15analysis.
5:16The way I like doing that is to start
5:18dropping down into the time frames in
5:20which I'm going to be considering to
5:22take some trades. Now, that doesn't mean
5:24I'm executing on these time frames, but
5:26they reflect the nature of the types of
5:28trades I'm looking to take. So, if I'm
5:30looking to swing trade, I might be on a
5:324-hour chart or a daily chart, but if
5:34I'm looking at day trading, I'm going to
5:36be focused more on smaller term time
5:39frames like the 1-hour all the way down
5:41to say a 1-minute or even a 5-minute
5:43chart. Now, I use these time frames
5:45still strictly for market analysis, not
5:47necessarily for trade execution. We're
5:50going to use an entirely different
5:51approach for that. That comes later on
5:54in the video.
5:55All right. Now, when it comes to market
5:57analysis, what I like to look at, again,
6:00is top-down, and I like to use volume
6:02profile work at this juncture of my
6:05trading plan. So, the first thing I like
6:07to look at is a weekly volume profile.
6:10Now, as I'm recording this, it's
6:11currently Thursday, which means we're in
6:13the back half of the week, and the
6:15developing profile is almost complete.
6:18Now, you can see that currently we're
6:20trading above the week's developing
6:21value area low, but we're far away from
6:25the previous week's value area low. So,
6:28week to week, relatively speaking, so
6:30far, we can say that the market has
6:32migrated prices lower. But, if you look
6:36at where the volume point of control for
6:38the current week exists, it's still
6:41within the previous week's value area.
6:44So, what this means is that even though
6:46we had a very sharp sell-off
6:49into Thursday, there wasn't as much
6:52volume behind that sell-off as the
6:54consolidation that preceded it. And
6:56that's why the volume point of control
6:58is still within the previous week's
7:00value area. This, in turn, raises a very
7:03interesting question. Is the sell-off
7:05ultimately nothing more than a failed
7:07auction? If it is, then we're going to
7:09see rotation back inside the previous
7:12week's value area from a price-based
7:14perspective, setting the stage for
7:16potentially another recovery. On the
7:19other hand, if we come back to the
7:21previous week's value, and we find that
7:23sellers still consider these values to
7:25be at too high of a premium, we could
7:27see the market roll over and instead
7:30start to trade lower again. And that's
7:32why it's important to think of the
7:33market through the lens of auction
7:35market theory. It's because it not just
7:37starts putting the statistics on your
7:39side, but it puts you in the mindset of
7:41a professional trader who is asking
7:43themselves, is fair value found here or
7:46is this just an emotional overreaction
7:48to a piece of news? From the weekly
7:50profile, I want to mark out the most
7:52important reference points. And what
7:53you'll notice in my analytical approach
7:55is consistency. I want to mark out the
7:58same zones, the same levels over and
8:00over and over again, just across
8:02different types of profiles. So in the
8:04weekly chart, what I like to do is I
8:05like to identify the value area low of
8:08the developing week and of the previous
8:10week as well. And then I want to take a
8:12look at things like the point of
8:14control. And more specifically, identify
8:17the high volume node around that point
8:19of control. Not just the exact level of
8:22the point of control itself. And then
8:24finally, I want to mark out the value
8:26area high as well. Doing so gives me at
8:29a glance a very quick read in terms of
8:31where the developing week's most
8:33important reference levels are held.
8:35When the week is first starting out, I'm
8:37going to do the exact same analysis, but
8:39on the previous week's profile instead.
8:41My next step is to start taking a look
8:43at the cash session profile. So here I'm
8:46going to drop even lower in terms of
8:48time frame. Now I'm going to use a
8:505-minute chart so I can get a clear look
8:52at yesterday's cash session profile.
8:55Notice how the area that we've
8:56highlighted, the week's developing value
8:58area low, coincides with yesterday's
9:01cash session point of control. Excuse
9:03me, I'm also going to mark out the
9:05previous day's value area extremes. So
9:08you'll notice here I'm identifying the
9:10value area high. Now typically the value
9:12area high and the value area low will
9:15leave behind what's called a low volume
9:17node. You'll notice that in this volume
9:20profile, we have high volume nodes,
9:22areas where a lot of business was done,
9:24a lot of inventory changed hands. And
9:26then we have low volume areas, which is
9:29the exact opposite. Those are areas
9:31where the market has moved quickly and
9:33left behind voids inside the volume
9:35profile. So I like to mark out the low
9:37volume node that is adjacent towards the
9:40value area extremes. So, here we have
9:43the low volume node of the value area
9:45high, and here we're going to mark out
9:47the low volume node around the value
9:49area low, as well. And there we go.
9:52These are my reference points, and they
9:53help identify where the market sits
9:56relative to previous session's value.
9:59Now, we can see that the market opened
10:01up today
10:02right around yesterday's value area low.
10:05In fact, we did sell off a little bit.
10:07We sold off, we tested that value area
10:09low, we sold off again, we couldn't go
10:12any lower, and notice what happens when
10:14we reclaim the previous session's value
10:16area low, we start to trade higher. In
10:19fact, I was live streaming this very
10:22day, and one of the things I called out
10:23was how if we're able to start breaking
10:25above 7756,
10:27which are these highs right here, we can
10:30start looking for rotation towards the
10:32upside. The reason that happened isn't
10:34because I have an amazing crystal ball,
10:36it's because during that live stream, I
10:38was explaining where
10:40buyers would consider the market to be
10:42at a relative discount, where sellers
10:44have to step in if they plan on
10:46defending what were previously
10:48considered to be premium prices. And
10:50it's in that spread, that gap between
10:52fair value,
10:53in other words, premium and discount,
10:55that the opportunity for directional
10:57movement actually exists.
11:00Once I have my zones marked out based on
11:02the cash session volume profiles, that's
11:05when I can start thinking about looking
11:06at a trade. Now is when things get
11:09really interesting, and the rubber
11:10really meets the road.
11:12I'm going to pull up a different chart
11:13here, and I'm going to load an entirely
11:15different template. The template I'm
11:17going to load is my execution template,
11:19and we're going to pull these templates
11:21up side by side. And now we're going to
11:23import the drawings from the other ES
11:26chart. Now, before we dive into
11:29execution and trades, I'm going to show
11:31you on the idealized line diagram a few
11:34of my idealized types of trades to begin
11:36with. Now, they all depend based on
11:39where we are opening relative to the
11:41previous session's
11:42value area.
11:45So, here we have the previous session's
11:46value area
11:48and the point of control. We have the
11:49value area low, value area high, and the
11:51line in the middle is the point of
11:53control.
11:54If we open up outside of yesterday's
11:56value area, there are a couple different
11:58setups that I can look for. The first is
12:00continuation lower. So, if we're opening
12:03up below yesterday's value, that's going
12:05to give me an easy short bias to play
12:08with. In this case, I want to see a
12:10retest of the previous day's value area
12:12low and then a move away from it. That's
12:15one very easy setup. The other setup
12:18that I have in mind involves breaking
12:20back inside the previous day's value
12:22area. That's when we have a break in
12:24above the value area low, we pull back
12:27to test that value area low as an area
12:29where buyers consider the market to be
12:31at too cheap prices for them to be
12:34resisting buying the market, and in turn
12:36the market starts to rise. We now have
12:38two sets of targets. The first is going
12:40to be that previous day's volume point
12:42of control, and then the next is going
12:44to be the previous day's value area
12:46high. You see that this process is
12:48repeatable. That's what makes it
12:50systematic. That's what makes it
12:52mechanical, and that's what allows you
12:54to collect a a high-quality sample of
12:57trades following the exact same method
12:59session after session. That's how you
13:01ultimately determine whether or not you
13:03have an edge in this market. Now, we're
13:05going to take a look at the setup and
13:07we're going to apply it in terms of what
13:09happened to today's auction. So, what we
13:12can see is that right here, as the
13:14market was breaking above the previous
13:17day's value area low, this is when
13:21we started to see something interesting
13:24happen. That the area, and that's this
13:27congested area of price right here. What
13:29we can see on the way up in this chart,
13:32and I'm just going to maximize this
13:33chart because we're focused on execution
13:35right now, is on the way up, we can see
13:38a cluster of big trade bubbles firing.
13:41That tells us that there is big money
13:43stepping in here. Big money. Now, just
13:46because there's big money stepping in at
13:47a key level doesn't get me all excited
13:50immediately, but that is one condition.
13:52So, the condition of the market that I
13:54was taking a look at here is that we
13:56have an opportunity for both bearish
13:58continuation, but a potential bullish
14:02value reversion trade if we break back
14:05in, retest the value area low, and then
14:07continue on higher. So, that's the
14:09condition the market was in. The next
14:11thing I want to do is identify the zone,
14:13which I already have. It's the previous
14:15day's value area low. The next thing I
14:18want to do is to start establishing a
14:20trigger. This is where I start taking a
14:22very close look at the order flow
14:25itself. Now, for those of you who don't
14:26know, order flow analysis is simply
14:29gauging the interaction between
14:31aggressive participation in the market
14:33and the passive participation that's
14:34sitting in the order book.
14:36That's when those two forces collide,
14:39and and the resulting effect is what we
14:41as traders know as order flow analysis.
14:44If buyers are able to lift offers, what
14:46that means is that sellers are willing
14:48to sell to buyers but at increasingly
14:51higher and higher prices. That's what
14:52allows buyers to jump through the order
14:55book and lifting the market
14:57aggressively, allowing them to reprice
14:59it in their favor. Eventually, that
15:02buying will be exhausted or absorbed,
15:04and we're going to see rotation.
15:06What I like to see at a key level is
15:09value building, otherwise known as
15:11sideways trade. Why? Because when I see
15:14value building, that tells me that the
15:16market is accepting value at a new
15:18location from where it was accepting
15:20value previously. We can see that
15:22visually in this chart. Take a look
15:24here.
15:26Value built up
15:28here and then migrated lower.
15:31But the market couldn't stay down here.
15:33It actually repriced higher, built
15:34value, and we got another valid break
15:37towards the upside. It's that valid
15:39break that I'm looking to trade.
15:42So, all that's left is a trigger.
15:44Now, the trigger for me in this
15:46circumstance comes down to what I'm
15:48looking for in the order flow. And what
15:51I'm looking for in the order flow is
15:53going to be ultimately
15:55a combination of exhaustion, absorption,
15:59and then with trend strength.
16:02Exhaustion is when sellers start running
16:04out of steam actively as they hit into
16:07the same level over and over and over
16:09again. Absorption is when aggressive
16:11sellers try to break through a level,
16:13but passive buyers are sitting there and
16:15soaking up those sell orders like a
16:17sponge.
16:19It's not necessary to see all of these
16:21elements all at once, but it does
16:23certainly help. And I'm going to explain
16:26to you how in this trade we have all
16:28three elements lining up at the exact
16:30same time step-by-step. The final
16:32element we'll be looking for is with
16:34trend strength. And I'm going to show
16:36you exactly what that looks like on this
16:37footprint chart in just a minute. So,
16:40take a look at this candlestick
16:42indicator that we have at the bottom.
16:44This is known as the cumulative volume
16:46delta, and it's basically a measure of
16:48who is really trying hard at this moment
16:52to get a result in the market. If we see
16:54a lot of bullish candles on the way up,
16:56that means buyers are making a
16:58tremendous effort to reprice the market
17:00higher. And it's the opposite if we see
17:02a lot of bearish candles on the way
17:04down. But effort is only half the
17:06equation. The other half is the result.
17:09So, if we see a tremendous effort from
17:11buyers and we see the same result, that
17:14means there's a match between the
17:15effort, the result, and that in turn
17:18tells us who's in control of the
17:20auction. So, when we see value building,
17:22what I want to see is very little
17:24selling. You can see how small these
17:26seller candles are relative to the big
17:28buyer ones that preceded it. This is the
17:31equivalent of someone going for an
17:33all-out sprint, which is the market
17:35racing on the way up, and then needing
17:37to catch its breath before it can do
17:39another interval. So, that's exhaustion.
17:41Absorption on the other hand is when we
17:43see aggressive sellers trying to break
17:45the market down, but there are passive
17:47buyers waiting to absorb them. And we
17:50can take a look using the deep stats
17:52indicator here to see exactly what that
17:54looks like. For instance, take a look at
17:57these candlesticks right here. We can
17:59see that they have net negative deltas,
18:02meaning that there were more sellers
18:03than there were buyers on these
18:04candlesticks, and yet the price could
18:06not break lower. For example, here we
18:09have a net volume of 8.3 thousand
18:11contracts, 5.7 thousand contracts,
18:141.2 thousand contracts, and we have net
18:18negative deltas of 695, 281, 12, 127.
18:24Those net negative deltas tell us that
18:26there were 695 more sellers, aggressive
18:29sellers, than there were aggressive
18:30buyers in the body of this candlestick.
18:33And yet, the market could not break
18:35lower. Why is that? It's because there
18:38were those passive buyers that I was
18:39talking about before, waiting to absorb
18:42them. Eventually, those aggressive
18:44sellers run out of steam, and that's
18:46when the market really decides to rally.
18:49Now, there are a few ways that you can
18:50take advantage of this phenomenon. Once
18:52you see the absorption, that can be an
18:54entry trigger all on its own. And in
18:57fact, this is something that I do quite
18:58frequently. When I see absorption off of
19:00a key level, I will buy and set buy
19:03limit orders at that key level. However,
19:06I'm not going to commit my entire
19:08position size based off of absorption
19:11alone. What I really want to see to
19:13start committing to the market is an
19:15increase in delta in the direction that
19:17I'm looking to trade. In this case, I
19:19want to see aggressive buyer delta start
19:21stepping into the market. Now, take a
19:23look at the seller deltas. We've got
19:258,000, 5.7, 4.3, 2.7, 691, 744. Not bad,
19:31right? 2.8, 4,000, 2,000, 2,000. What I
19:34really want to see is what I call
19:37outlier volume on the way up. I want to
19:39see more buyers in one bar, two bars,
19:44a lot more buyers than there were
19:46sellers
19:47at any point during this congestion.
19:51Now,
19:52take a close look at the deep stats
19:54chart and tell me where you see that
19:57delta flip take place.
19:59The answer is on this bar right here.
20:02Nowhere in that consolidation did we see
20:04a bar with 12,000 contracts. Nowhere did
20:07we see a net positive delta of 1,000
20:10contracts. That tells us that the
20:12accumulation is over and the market is
20:14ready for its next interval sprint. And
20:16guess what? That's exactly what
20:18happened.
20:20We saw the market
20:22race up violently.
20:25Now, it comes down to identifying where
20:28we are wrong on these trades. That is
20:30far more important than the entries
20:32itself or the targets you have in mind.
20:35Managing your risk is the most critical
20:37element of professional trading.
20:39Otherwise, we're simply gambling.
20:43For me, stop loss location is determined
20:46around one idea and one idea only. Where
20:49is the trade incorrect? In other words,
20:52if the market trades through a level and
20:54builds acceptance beyond it, am I going
20:56to see an opposite and violent reaction
20:59to the one that I'm trading for?
21:01To me, the answer in this particular
21:03case is extremely obvious. If we start
21:05seeing sellers able to break below this
21:08consolidation, able to start trapping
21:10the aggressive buyers that bought hard
21:12on the way up, then we're going to see a
21:14violent rotation to the downside. So, I
21:16would want my stop loss below this
21:18congestion here. That is where this idea
21:21is simply flat-out wrong. Now, for
21:24targets, I want to refer back to my
21:28analytical
21:30platform and take a look at my auction
21:32map. My auction map here gives me a very
21:34clear range of targets, and we can
21:36refine this zone a little bit further
21:39by identifying the overlap between the
21:43daily volume point of control and the
21:45week's developing value area low.
21:48Now, that gives us that level right
21:50there. And when we go back to our
21:52execution platform, we can see what a
21:55potential trade could look like. All
21:57right, now we're back at the execution
21:58platform, and you have a few options of
22:01available to you. If you started buying
22:03small as the market is absorbing these
22:06sellers, and then you start adding on
22:08that 12,000 contract bar we mentioned
22:10about earlier,
22:12and if you start adding on this large
22:13volume bar that we mentioned just a few
22:15minutes earlier, then your average entry
22:17price might look something like this.
22:19And you can have your stop below. You
22:21can start targeting into the zone above,
22:24and that will give you a minimum
22:25expected target. We just And of course,
22:28the market can continue trading
22:29favorably towards the upside. Just comes
22:32down to what other realistic targets you
22:34have in mind. For me, I want my minimum
22:36target to at least have a one-to-one
22:39risk to reward ratio with the overall
22:42risk that I'm taking on the trade. Now,
22:44the reason I'm okay with this is because
22:46I know historically my win rate on such
22:49trades hovers closer to about 63% than
22:53it does to 50%, meaning I'm very
22:55confident in my ability over time to
22:57beat a coin flip using this setup. All I
23:01care about when I'm looking at my setups
23:03is do I have positive expected value
23:05over time or not. If the risk geometry
23:08fails to make sense, then the trade is a
23:11gamble, not one with a proven
23:14statistical edge. So, going beyond
23:18the expected target, I now need to start
23:20looking at possible extensions to where
23:22the market can run.
23:24If we take a look at our next upside
23:26target level would be around 77.95.
23:29That would give us a projected potential
23:31return on risk capital of over 350%
23:35or a risk-reward ratio of over three and
23:37a half to one.
23:39There will be opportunities to build and
23:41pyramid into these trades if the trade
23:43extends favorably in your direction.
23:45There are also opportunities to scale
23:47out of the trade as we're hitting
23:49targets. The bottom line is that it's
23:51important to know ahead of time whether
23:53or not this setup has positive expected
23:55value or not. If it does, you have a
23:58responsibility as a trader to pull the
24:00trigger, put on the risk, and get into
24:02the position knowing that you have
24:04defined downside risk limits that you
24:07will respect. And that ultimately is the
24:09key to professional trading. It's not
24:11about having a better crystal ball. It's
24:13not about predicting what the market is
24:15going to do. It's about using rigorous
24:17statistical analysis combined with human
24:20discretion to identify the optimal entry
24:23points and exit points that are going to
24:25deliver plus EV over a large sample size
24:29of trades. I know that doesn't sound
24:30exciting, and I intentionally didn't
24:32phrase that to make it sound exciting
24:34because good trading is not. Good
24:36trading is incredibly boring. The hard
24:39work comes in validating your setups
24:41before you actually put them on. So,
24:44when traders start to ask me about
24:46specific entry points and and where I
24:48would target,
24:50to me that that's a sign of not actually
24:52understanding what good trading is all
24:53about. An entry point is only as good as
24:55your invalidation. A target is only as
24:58good as what your statistical analysis
25:00tells you in terms of potential expected
25:02moves.
25:03For example, the day before today was
25:05CPI, and if you look at the average true
25:07range for CPI news movements over the
25:10last several several months, you'll see
25:12that the average range is about 2%,
25:14which is more or less exactly what we
25:16got in yesterday's move. That's
25:18something you can only know if you
25:19validate this data through what I would
25:22call fairly basic, rigorous, but
25:24rigorous statistical analysis. That's
25:27where you derive edges in the market.
25:29That's where you're able to exploit the
25:31periodic inefficiencies that can lead to
25:34explosive market movements. So, I hope
25:36you enjoyed this video. I'm going to go
25:37through more setups like this in the
25:39future, and I'll have some live trades
25:41as well. If you enjoyed this content,
25:44like and subscribe. I'll see you guys in
25:45the next video.

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