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OpenRouter State Of Models: Jev, Open-Weights, and Tokenomics — Transcript

by IndyDevDan · 5,243 words · 765 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00What's up engineers? Andy Debb Dan here.
  2. 0:02With the release of the new Jev system 1
  3. 0:04model class and all the overnight
  4. 0:06clones, [music] this is a great time for
  5. 0:08us to break down the state of AI models
  6. 0:11as we enter the last quarter of 2026.
  7. 0:13[music]
  8. 0:14Why is that? Because it's important to
  9. 0:16understand the intelligence available to
  10. 0:18you and the trends around them so you
  11. 0:20can do [music] your best work at the
  12. 0:22right performance, speed, cost
  13. 0:24trade-off. I have five big trends we'll
  14. 0:26break down in this video. I'll throw
  15. 0:28them up on the screen now. We'll [music]
  16. 0:29use open router to explore these trends.
  17. 0:31If these ideas interest you, stick
  18. 0:33around and let's scale our compute so we
  19. 0:36can scale [music] our impact. Trend one
  20. 0:38tokens go up.
  21. 0:45Quick announcement. Early sign up for
  22. 0:47the phase 3 [music] Aentic engineering
  23. 0:49product is officially available. Sign up
  24. 0:51to get on a private email list to
  25. 0:54understand what advantage is coming next
  26. 0:56[music] to you and every engineer who's
  27. 0:58on the edge. I can't wait to share this
  28. 1:01with you. This will be by far one of the
  29. 1:03most valuable things I've ever created.
  30. 1:05Look at Open Router's weekly token
  31. 1:07chart. Usage keeps going up, but you
  32. 1:09have to look at the numbers to
  33. 1:11understand how astronomically high token
  34. 1:14usage is now. Roughly one year ago
  35. 1:16today, there was 4.5 trillion tokens for
  36. 1:20the entire week. Guess what that number
  37. 1:22is today? It's not 10 trillion, not 20
  38. 1:24trillion, not 50 trillion, not 100
  39. 1:27trillion. Last week, there was a total
  40. 1:29of 146 trillion tokens used. It's not
  41. 1:33exponential growth, but it's close. Some
  42. 1:36people keep calling AI a bubble, but the
  43. 1:38growing usage numbers we can concretely
  44. 1:40see on Open Router shows demand for
  45. 1:42these tools that's nearly exponential.
  46. 1:45And you've likely seen this in your own
  47. 1:47work. The more tokens you can gain
  48. 1:49access to that's intelligent and cheap,
  49. 1:52the more use cases you keep finding.
  50. 1:54This is true for you, it's true for me,
  51. 1:56it's true for the entire engineering
  52. 1:58ecosystem. And we're all slowly learning
  53. 2:00how to make our tokens more economically
  54. 2:03valuable. This is the art and science of
  55. 2:05tokconomics. Now, you'll notice
  56. 2:06something really interesting here. There
  57. 2:08are barely any anthropic models in the
  58. 2:11top LLM leaderboard. That's because
  59. 2:13OpenR does not count tokens from other
  60. 2:15language model providers. Anthropic is
  61. 2:18targeting a massive $2 trillion IPO
  62. 2:20despite losing almost $50 billion. And
  63. 2:23this makes us ask an uncomfortable hard
  64. 2:25question with all the great growth
  65. 2:27Anthropic is seeing with all that token
  66. 2:29spend coming into Anthropic. Is this $2
  67. 2:32trillion IPO value justified? And the
  68. 2:35real question is, can their explosive
  69. 2:37growth continue? Will we keep seeing the
  70. 2:39token spend that we see on Open Router
  71. 2:42come through to the model providers? If
  72. 2:44Anthropic has any chart that looks just
  73. 2:46like this and their usage, the answer
  74. 2:48will be yes. They will make $200 billion
  75. 2:51in annualized recurring revenue by the
  76. 2:53end of 2028, which is their projection.
  77. 2:55That's how they're able to make this
  78. 2:57insane IPO claim. So, we have a couple
  79. 3:00really, really interesting narratives
  80. 3:01going on here, and it all depends on
  81. 3:03language model usage continuing to go up
  82. 3:06nearly exponentially. If this trend
  83. 3:09continues, we can put our fist down and
  84. 3:11say there is no bubble. But if this
  85. 3:12trend does not continue, I think the
  86. 3:15bare case for Anthropics IPO is going to
  87. 3:17be true and then it'll likely follow
  88. 3:19with OpenAI and then the House of Cards
  89. 3:22starts falling down. I'm more in the
  90. 3:24optimistic camp, but pretty soon we're
  91. 3:26going to see which one of these two
  92. 3:27cases is true. Regardless, what's clear
  93. 3:30here is token usage is going up. What
  94. 3:32does this trend mean for us? I think the
  95. 3:34key question every engineer needs to ask
  96. 3:36is, is your token spend going up because
  97. 3:38you're getting more useful work done or
  98. 3:40is it going up because you're trying to
  99. 3:42use more tokens and you can't find a way
  100. 3:44to use them efficiently? Are we getting
  101. 3:46more productive use out of our token
  102. 3:48spend? This is tokconomics. It's not
  103. 3:51enough to just use more tokens. I always
  104. 3:53say on the channel, scale your compute
  105. 3:54to scale your impact. But it really
  106. 3:56matters what you're doing with these
  107. 3:57tokens. A lot of engineers are opting
  108. 3:59for cheap models and they sacrifice
  109. 4:01their own time and their own business's
  110. 4:03performance while other engineers are
  111. 4:05able to leverage these models properly
  112. 4:06to get the job done at cheaper prices.
  113. 4:08You want to be the engineers in that
  114. 4:10second bucket. You want to be utilizing
  115. 4:11these models without sacrificing your
  116. 4:13performance. And the Jev model by Typesa
  117. 4:16is a huge contributor to that. We'll
  118. 4:18talk about that more in a second. You
  119. 4:19can see the astronomical growth here.
  120. 4:21257% up week overweek coming in at 2.6
  121. 4:25trillion tokens. More on that in just a
  122. 4:27second. And this is the game we're all
  123. 4:29ultimately playing. More tokens does not
  124. 4:31equal more value. It's highly
  125. 4:33correlated, which is why I like to say
  126. 4:34scale your compute to scale your impact.
  127. 4:36But burning tokens to feel more
  128. 4:38productive is not progress. If it was,
  129. 4:40vibe coding would be the ultimate thing
  130. 4:42to do. It'd be the best place to spend
  131. 4:44your time. But it's not. Generating code
  132. 4:46is the easiest part of software
  133. 4:47engineering. The hard part is everything
  134. 4:49else. I like to aim for a steady rise in
  135. 4:52my compute usage versus an astronomical
  136. 4:55dump of tokens. Now, this brings us to
  137. 4:57the interesting question of given the
  138. 4:58entropic numbers and given the narrative
  139. 5:00around language models, who's winning
  140. 5:02this? What model provider? What model
  141. 5:04lab is actually winning the AI [music]
  142. 5:06race?
  143. 5:12So, who's actually winning the AI race?
  144. 5:14Just by glancing at the market share on
  145. 5:16Open Router, you see Open Weights and in
  146. 5:19the top three spot, we see DeepSeek,
  147. 5:20Google, and OpenAI. Now, the more
  148. 5:22fascinating part here for me is this. If
  149. 5:25we hover over, you know, a weekly
  150. 5:26breakdown, notice who you'll see in the
  151. 5:28top three spots. Deepseek, OpenAI,
  152. 5:31Google, Deepseek, OpenAI, Google,
  153. 5:33Deepseek, OpenAI, Google, Deepseek,
  154. 5:35OpenAI, Google. Almost the entire year
  155. 5:38with others, which is, you know,
  156. 5:40everyone else that's not in the top 10
  157. 5:42popping up sometimes in third place. So,
  158. 5:44why is this? You know, everyone keeps
  159. 5:46saying that uh Google has fallen out of
  160. 5:47the AI race and they're not relevant. I
  161. 5:50have no idea what they're talking about.
  162. 5:51Uh Google with the Gemini Flash series
  163. 5:53is one of the most effective workhorse
  164. 5:56models available. It's one of the most
  165. 5:59useful models available in my model
  166. 6:01stack. You can see this. It's one of my
  167. 6:02favorite models in that A tier that can
  168. 6:04do 90% of everything you're trying to do
  169. 6:06with your language model. And inside of
  170. 6:08my PI coding agent, Gemini 3.8 Flash is
  171. 6:11my default. And there's a great reason
  172. 6:12for this. It's because it has the best
  173. 6:14trade-off between performance, speed,
  174. 6:16and cost. For everything it does for
  175. 6:18you, for everything this thing gives
  176. 6:19you, it's just a fantastic model. Now,
  177. 6:21there are a bunch of competitors in the
  178. 6:22A tier right now. This is definitely the
  179. 6:24most contentious place to be for a
  180. 6:26language model right now. But that's a
  181. 6:28great thing, right, for you and I, the
  182. 6:29engineer, the intelligence explosion is
  183. 6:31continuing, right? We just had the new
  184. 6:33uh cloud opus 5.5, we just had sonnet
  185. 6:35drop, we had the 6 soul and the six luna
  186. 6:39model drop. And uh, you know, there's
  187. 6:41more compute available than ever. We
  188. 6:43have to give Luna a big shout out here.
  189. 6:45This is a really, really powerful model
  190. 6:46that frankly is keeping OpenAI in the
  191. 6:49LLM rankings on Open Router, right? A
  192. 6:51lot of this volume is Luna. These three
  193. 6:54companies are sitting at that
  194. 6:55intersection. They're sitting at that
  195. 6:57sweet spot, the workhorse A tier model
  196. 7:00level where it's good enough to do
  197. 7:01useful work. Deepseek, Gemini, and
  198. 7:03there's Luna and Terara is here as well.
  199. 7:05This one is less popular, but they're
  200. 7:06sitting at that great workhorse level
  201. 7:08where cost, speed, and performance
  202. 7:11really intersects. As mentioned, Open
  203. 7:13Router traffic only tracks models going
  204. 7:15through Open Router. When I'm looking at
  205. 7:17the anthropic IPO coming up, I'm asking
  206. 7:19myself, this is like a fun thought
  207. 7:21experiment you can run. How many tokens
  208. 7:22of this 65, let's round down, 60 billion
  209. 7:25of the rumored current annualized
  210. 7:27revenue run rate that Anthropic has is
  211. 7:29coming from raw token spends. Like
  212. 7:31what's the total token count from
  213. 7:33Enthropic? So you can quickly easily do
  214. 7:35this math. Let's just assume that $60
  215. 7:37billion run rate. What if it were all
  216. 7:39Opus 5.5 tokens at Opus 5.5 pricing?
  217. 7:42Just to put things into perspective, it
  218. 7:44looks like open weights models are
  219. 7:46winning and these cheap fast performant
  220. 7:48models are completely dominant. But if
  221. 7:50you just do a little bit of on the
  222. 7:51napkin math, you'll find something very
  223. 7:53different here. If all the 60 billion
  224. 7:55run rate where Opus 5.5 tokens, that
  225. 7:57means that Enthropic is processing 65.2
  226. 8:00trillion tokens per day. As we just
  227. 8:03looked at, we know this Open Router is
  228. 8:04doing 140 trillion per week. That's
  229. 8:07insane. That means they're doing
  230. 8:08something like 450 trillion tokens per
  231. 8:11week. And if you don't like my
  232. 8:12simplified numbers here, right? Assuming
  233. 8:13that this is all Opus tokens, which
  234. 8:15they're not, cut it in half, right? It
  235. 8:17doesn't really matter. You can cut it in
  236. 8:18half again if you want. That means
  237. 8:19they're doing 32 trillion per day or 228
  238. 8:22trillion per week, which is still 1.5x
  239. 8:25the total volume on Open Router. So,
  240. 8:28don't fully believe this market share
  241. 8:30here. You have to really really
  242. 8:32understand that the AI labs are getting
  243. 8:34massive, massive direct traffic. And of
  244. 8:37course, you know, Anthropic is known for
  245. 8:38being an enterprise leader. So, they're
  246. 8:40seeing these enterprise token spending
  247. 8:43numbers. Might be number seven down
  248. 8:45here, but don't let this fool you,
  249. 8:46right? [laughter]
  250. 8:47These open router numbers are really a
  251. 8:49representation of individual engineers
  252. 8:51and small to medium-sized businesses
  253. 8:53spending tokens. I'm sure Open Rider has
  254. 8:55some enterprise, but the real enterprise
  255. 8:57are fully bought into Anthropic, OpenAI,
  256. 9:00Google, and maybe a couple others. Who's
  257. 9:03winning the AI race? Right? You see a
  258. 9:04bunch of openweight models here on Open
  259. 9:06Router. Who's really winning? Everyone
  260. 9:08is winning. Again, let's scroll back up
  261. 9:10to the top models. It's just spend
  262. 9:12across the board is going up. It's going
  263. 9:14up massively. Something like 50, 60, 70,
  264. 9:1680x of increase over the entire year. I
  265. 9:19remember looking at token volume a year
  266. 9:21ago on open router thinking, "Wow, these
  267. 9:24numbers are insane. They're insane.
  268. 9:26They're insane." But they just keep
  269. 9:27growing. So, who's winning? Everyone is
  270. 9:29winning. Token spend is going up across
  271. 9:31the board. Chinese open weights and now
  272. 9:33some close weights models are completely
  273. 9:35dominant here in terms of this specific
  274. 9:37model that's executing. But we have to
  275. 9:39give a lot of credit to the frontier
  276. 9:41model labs for paving the way. And then
  277. 9:43we have to give credit back to open
  278. 9:45weight models coming out of China for
  279. 9:46making it affordable. But then we have
  280. 9:47to give credit back to open AAI and to
  281. 9:50anthropic because guess how these models
  282. 9:52are getting trained. They're getting
  283. 9:53trained from distillations from the
  284. 9:55state-of-the-art is a very popular very
  285. 9:57well-known thing that's happening now.
  286. 9:59So there's a circular optimization
  287. 10:01that's happening at least from you and
  288. 10:02I's perspective right from the engineers
  289. 10:04perspective cost going down,
  290. 10:05intelligence going up. It's a great
  291. 10:07thing. Everybody's winning. There's no
  292. 10:08one model wins. There's no one AI lab
  293. 10:10wins. This is the optimal scenario we're
  294. 10:12in here. But something super exciting
  295. 10:14has happened recently. You know about
  296. 10:15it. You know, it's in all the headlines
  297. 10:17right now. Jev, we have a new class of
  298. 10:19models to work with. What's old is new
  299. 10:22again. We have zero shot classifier
  300. 10:24models back on the scene with Jev
  301. 10:26[music] leading the way.
  302. 10:33Trend number three is a old new model
  303. 10:35class led by the dev model. So, first
  304. 10:38off, 2.68 trillion tokens up 200%. This
  305. 10:41is the fastest grower outside of Mimo
  306. 10:44Flash and the rumored uh Space Bunny
  307. 10:47alpha model which is rumored to be a new
  308. 10:49Minimax model. So Jev is seeing
  309. 10:51explosive growth here. One of the crazy
  310. 10:53things about Jev and the usage numbers
  311. 10:56behind Jev on open router specifically
  312. 10:58is that Jev uses a fraction of the
  313. 11:00tokens that language models do when
  314. 11:02they're inside of agents. And it is
  315. 11:04still 12th place this week. This just
  316. 11:07came out. It's brand new technology or
  317. 11:10it's old technology made new and highly
  318. 11:13optimized. You've seen all the Jev
  319. 11:14clones come out. Everyone talking about
  320. 11:16fine-tuning models. Every other engineer
  321. 11:18saying that they've done this before.
  322. 11:19Yeah, this is classifier models. I
  323. 11:20myself personally have worked on a lot
  324. 11:22of these traditional classifier, you
  325. 11:25know, scikitlearn models. But it's not
  326. 11:27that simple. And let me show you the
  327. 11:28chart that proves it. Jev from Typesafe
  328. 11:30is one of the most scalable models I've
  329. 11:33ever seen. And it's one of the most
  330. 11:35reliable models. This is a really
  331. 11:37important chart that not many people
  332. 11:39will pay attention to. Uptime Jev just
  333. 11:42doesn't go down. Now, this is in
  334. 11:44contrast to many, many, many, many, many
  335. 11:46other models with much worse, you know,
  336. 11:49latency and much worse uptime. Speak of
  337. 11:52the devil, I'm filming this right now
  338. 11:53and Claude just had another outage, a
  339. 11:56blip in the system. But it's insane to
  340. 11:58me that uh everyone thinks that they can
  341. 12:00create a Jev clone when they're not
  342. 12:01really understanding that this is a
  343. 12:03super generic classifier that's zero
  344. 12:06shot that can be applied to many many
  345. 12:07different scenarios. Now definitely if
  346. 12:09you have a bunch of training data, you
  347. 12:11can outperform Jev with a small model.
  348. 12:13But what you won't outperform is Jev
  349. 12:15across many many different use cases.
  350. 12:17Contrary to popular belief, Jev is not
  351. 12:20easy to replace. Engineers that were
  352. 12:21with the channel last week know that I
  353. 12:23am actively embedding Jev into my PI
  354. 12:26coding agent. I'm already benchmarking
  355. 12:28this model. Last week we covered 10
  356. 12:30levels of Jev for a Gentic engineers. Uh
  357. 12:32when you finish this LLM breakdown,
  358. 12:34check out that video to understand how
  359. 12:35to use Jev for real production use cases
  360. 12:37all the way up to powerful agentic use
  361. 12:39cases. But you can see here just with
  362. 12:41the Jev model just one additional model
  363. 12:43and a couple of tool calls I am
  364. 12:44outperforming on both speed and cost.
  365. 12:47You can only see cost here. I need to
  366. 12:48add speed to this PI agent comparison
  367. 12:50UI. You can see here, you know, on a
  368. 12:52relatively simple 400 500K input um
  369. 12:55prompt. I'm saving 5 cents and
  370. 12:58specifically I'm saving about 20%. The
  371. 13:00percentage is the thing to pay attention
  372. 13:01to as I'm benchmarking using Jev, a
  373. 13:04classifier model inside of PI. You
  374. 13:06really want to keep your eye on this.
  375. 13:07I'm using the new Sonnet 5.5 model here.
  376. 13:09By the way, this new classifier model is
  377. 13:12groundbreaking. Why is it
  378. 13:13groundbreaking? Why does Jeb matter so
  379. 13:15much? It's because this is a new species
  380. 13:17of models that you can use alongside
  381. 13:20traditional language models and agents.
  382. 13:22As viewers of the channel know, I think
  383. 13:23ins ors. It's not about this model or
  384. 13:26that model or that provider or that
  385. 13:28model provider or that one or this tool
  386. 13:29or that tool. It's about using them
  387. 13:30together. Think ins. All right. It's
  388. 13:32Deepseek V4.1 Flash and Jev. It's Claude
  389. 13:36Opus 5.5 and GPT6 Astra together.
  390. 13:39Combine compute. Don't select compute.
  391. 13:40You want to be using all these models at
  392. 13:42the right time in the right combination.
  393. 13:44And Jev is a new species of model that
  394. 13:46we can now use. Interestingly, Open
  395. 13:49Router has realized this. They have this
  396. 13:50new, if we go to models, they have a new
  397. 13:53decisions category specifically for
  398. 13:55models like this, uh, shout out Jev for
  399. 13:57being one of the first ones. And now
  400. 13:59everyone else is is coming out of the
  401. 14:00woodworks to create their own Jev clone
  402. 14:03or classifier model that does roughly
  403. 14:05the same thing. I think they're going to
  404. 14:06find that what Jeb actually gives you in
  405. 14:09addition to like a great implementation
  406. 14:11like they've really nailed this null
  407. 14:12choice score. They have more types on
  408. 14:14the way. They have more models on the
  409. 14:15way which I'm really excited about. What
  410. 14:17they've really nailed is the speed. So
  411. 14:19the latency is consistently great and
  412. 14:21they've nailed the reliability right
  413. 14:24which a lot of the leading model labs
  414. 14:26need to take after. I know Jev is much
  415. 14:28simpler but reliability has been a
  416. 14:29massive second priority, third priority
  417. 14:32for these model providers. So really
  418. 14:34really happy with Jev. This is an
  419. 14:35important release. I am right now in a
  420. 14:37flurry to explore Jev, looking at
  421. 14:40additional use cases, really figuring
  422. 14:41out how to use this model at scale
  423. 14:43broadly. As you can see here, I am
  424. 14:45actively rolling this into my PI coding
  425. 14:47agent. I have this in my default model,
  426. 14:49so my agent can make quick decisions
  427. 14:51when it needs to. As we covered last
  428. 14:53week, you can save a bunch of input
  429. 14:55tokens. And you can do this at scale
  430. 14:57with every agent you execute. My
  431. 14:59estimates are coming in. I'm saving
  432. 15:00about 20% token spend with Jev than
  433. 15:03without it. That's going to add up a lot
  434. 15:04day after day, week after week. So keep
  435. 15:06your eye peeled on these new classifier
  436. 15:08models. Experiment with them. Don't just
  437. 15:10put them in your code. Put them in your
  438. 15:12agents. Use tools together. This new
  439. 15:14model is going to be around for a while.
  440. 15:16That leads me to the next really simple
  441. 15:18idea, really important idea. Uh just to
  442. 15:20remind engineers, let's talk about quote
  443. 15:21unquote free tokens.
  444. 15:28Just want to leave a quick note here on
  445. 15:30models like Space Bunny Alpha. I'm sure
  446. 15:31it's some great new incredible model.
  447. 15:33It's rumored to be the next minimax
  448. 15:35model. One of the things I don't like
  449. 15:36about Open Router is that they do have
  450. 15:38this free model deal, which I know is
  451. 15:40like a great thing, especially if you're
  452. 15:42on a budget. You know, the problem with
  453. 15:44these models is that if it's free,
  454. 15:46you're the product. It's that same
  455. 15:47simple idea that's been true throughout
  456. 15:49all technology. You can be pretty
  457. 15:50confident that these model providers are
  458. 15:52retaining your prompts. They're reading
  459. 15:54your prompts. They're using them. They
  460. 15:55say they don't use them for training. I
  461. 15:57don't really buy that. That's kind of
  462. 15:58the trade-off here for models like this.
  463. 16:00That being said, you know, this model
  464. 16:01has jumped up into second place. So,
  465. 16:03it's clearly very incredible, very cost
  466. 16:05effective, but also it's just free,
  467. 16:07which really paints the picture of what
  468. 16:10the language model ecosystem
  469. 16:12appreciates, wants, and what we really
  470. 16:14need for models to be really effective
  471. 16:17at scale. We need them to be very, very
  472. 16:19cheap. We know cost is going down. We
  473. 16:20know intelligence is going up. But as I
  474. 16:22look at this trend, the usage of free
  475. 16:25tokens on Open Router, I'm constantly
  476. 16:27thinking usage is going to keep climbing
  477. 16:30and the cheaper tokens are while
  478. 16:32maintaining performance, the more use
  479. 16:33cases emerge. And so even though I don't
  480. 16:36like the free models on Open Router
  481. 16:38because I fully believe they're taking
  482. 16:40all your prompts, all your data, and
  483. 16:42training on them. You know, I'd rather
  484. 16:43pay than have them take proprietary
  485. 16:45information. But get it. The bigger
  486. 16:46trend that this paints for me is that
  487. 16:48models like this like point toward that
  488. 16:50future. It's a continuation of the
  489. 16:52trend. The cheaper models are, the more
  490. 16:54cost effective they are, right? Without
  491. 16:56losing too much performance, the more
  492. 16:57tokens will be spent. So, we can kind of
  493. 17:00see that across models throughout the
  494. 17:02market share. The cheaper models that
  495. 17:04are still effective tend to rise up,
  496. 17:06right? That's why once again, Deepc,
  497. 17:08Google, OpenAI are doing a really,
  498. 17:09really great job. This stealth model has
  499. 17:11exploded into near first place. It's
  500. 17:14pretty incredible how effective it is to
  501. 17:16release a lowcost model because it
  502. 17:18drives a lot of attention, a lot of
  503. 17:20usage solely based on its price which as
  504. 17:23I like to explore the open router usage
  505. 17:26data also shows a crack in this usage
  506. 17:28right because why is a lot of this usage
  507. 17:30coming to open router is because the
  508. 17:32models here are of a wide variety and
  509. 17:34they're also dirt cheap right some of
  510. 17:36them are even free because they train on
  511. 17:38your data so wherever you're getting
  512. 17:40your information sources from especially
  513. 17:42on these like large data uh analysis
  514. 17:44tools, you always have to understand
  515. 17:45who's providing the data, where do the
  516. 17:48stats come from, what are the users
  517. 17:49like. And you know, an open router, as
  518. 17:51valuable as this is, a lot of the usage
  519. 17:53comes from users that want price down
  520. 17:56over everything else. And that's in
  521. 17:58contrast to engineers using Claude, for
  522. 18:01instance, or OpenAI who want maximum
  523. 18:03performance, right? It's insane that
  524. 18:05Enthropic has these numbers or some
  525. 18:08numbers like this. Even if you drop it
  526. 18:09all the way down to Open Routers weekly
  527. 18:12numbers of 140 trillion, if OpenAI
  528. 18:14actually has these numbers, it's insane
  529. 18:16because it means that their tokens as
  530. 18:18they price them are much much more
  531. 18:21expensive than all the models on Open
  532. 18:23Router. Uh we do have that new Haiku
  533. 18:25model coming soon. We'll see what they
  534. 18:26do with that. Based on the Sonnet
  535. 18:28release, they're going to price it exact
  536. 18:30same. So, they're going to need to
  537. 18:31really create a price competitive Haiku
  538. 18:34model. I would love to see this come in
  539. 18:35under a dollar. that would make it
  540. 18:36potentially competitive with some of our
  541. 18:39workhorse models like the Gemini 3.8
  542. 18:41Flash. But at the same time, you know,
  543. 18:42I'm not really expecting Anthropic to
  544. 18:44move on their prices here. So, you know,
  545. 18:46that's kind of a caveat I like to
  546. 18:47mention here. I'm always cognizant of
  547. 18:50user usage data when I'm checking out
  548. 18:52these language model trends. As you can
  549. 18:54see here, just as a general trend, if
  550. 18:55your tokens, if your tool, if your
  551. 18:58products are very, very cheap to
  552. 19:00consume, but still provide value, users
  553. 19:02will show up. Now this is really hard
  554. 19:04thing to fully digest because you have
  555. 19:05to make money somehow off your tokens,
  556. 19:07right? This is tokconomics. So that's
  557. 19:09some insight into the market share. One
  558. 19:11last thing I want to point out and focus
  559. 19:12on is the top applications flowing
  560. 19:15through open router. Now this [music] is
  561. 19:17really fascinating.
  562. 19:23So there's only one big trend that I
  563. 19:24like to look for on top apps and that's
  564. 19:26where the PI coding agent is in relation
  565. 19:29to cloud code. For the longest time, Pi
  566. 19:31has been trailing cloud code in the
  567. 19:33fifth, sixth, seventh most used
  568. 19:35application through open router, but um
  569. 19:37it's been slowly catching up to cloud
  570. 19:40code usage. To me, this is a sign of a
  571. 19:42broader understanding of the agentic
  572. 19:45tools of harness engineering. The more
  573. 19:48engineers that realize how important it
  574. 19:50is that they own their agentic coding
  575. 19:52tool, that they can customize it, that
  576. 19:54they can control it, the bigger this
  577. 19:56number is going to get. And that's the
  578. 19:57trend I've been seeing very very slowly,
  579. 19:59very very smoothly. I'll be releasing my
  580. 20:01yearly predictions video coming up in
  581. 20:03December here. You know, just to give
  582. 20:04one of them away through open router
  583. 20:06usage, I expect Pi to take over cloud
  584. 20:09code finally for the first time ever in
  585. 20:11usage again on open router. As I
  586. 20:13mentioned, there are a bunch of caveats
  587. 20:14to the open router data as a reliable
  588. 20:17source because this number coming
  589. 20:19through cloud code is actually much much
  590. 20:20higher if you include anthropic
  591. 20:22memberships and the subscriptions. The
  592. 20:24numbers are much much much higher. This
  593. 20:26is still a very cool thing to see as
  594. 20:28engineers, you know, use more openweight
  595. 20:30models as they get hardware that they
  596. 20:32can deploy. I'm also really excited, you
  597. 20:34know, I'm going to be picking up one of
  598. 20:35the M5 Ultra Max Studios coming up here
  599. 20:38in October and I'll be benchmarking
  600. 20:40that. I'll be sharing all the stats
  601. 20:42around what models you can run on a 512
  602. 20:45unified memory Mac Studio. So, make sure
  603. 20:47you like, make sure you subscribe so you
  604. 20:49don't miss that video. That's going to
  605. 20:50send my personal token usage even higher
  606. 20:52and other engineers as well. again on
  607. 20:54these great openweight models that have
  608. 20:57been made available to us. You can see
  609. 20:58codeex generally lower usage here. Klein
  610. 21:01being the best I would say followup to
  611. 21:04pie coding agent. Kilo code not bad
  612. 21:06either. None of them get close to the
  613. 21:07simplicity and customization you get out
  614. 21:09of pi. So this is a trend I like to
  615. 21:10watch and keep my eye on. This is a
  616. 21:13large advantage that you can get as an
  617. 21:15engineer. If you control your agent
  618. 21:17coding tool and add more token spend
  619. 21:19here, you're going to have an advantage
  620. 21:21that other engineers don't have. Most
  621. 21:23engineers that watch this channel
  622. 21:24understand that by now, but if you
  623. 21:25don't, I'm going to leave a couple
  624. 21:27videos linked in the description where
  625. 21:28we utilize and really showcase what you
  626. 21:31can do with the PI coding agent. And one
  627. 21:32of them, I added several very, very
  628. 21:34powerful tools from Jev and coded it
  629. 21:36into the agent harness, added tools,
  630. 21:38modified the out of the box experience.
  631. 21:40You can see from that, by knowing how to
  632. 21:42harness engineer, I'm going to save
  633. 21:43about 20% token spend on every agent I
  634. 21:46boot up now. So, that's a really solid,
  635. 21:47very clear, significant advantage you
  636. 21:50get when you own your harness, not when
  637. 21:52you're renting them. We're renting
  638. 21:53enough stuff right now, right? We're
  639. 21:54renting intelligence. You want to rent
  640. 21:56as few things as possible, and you want
  641. 21:57to own as many as you can as it's useful
  642. 22:00for the time and investment you have to
  643. 22:02put into it, right? And I think owning
  644. 22:04your agent harness is absolutely worth
  645. 22:05it. So, those are the big trends I'm
  646. 22:08keeping my eyes on right now. The pie is
  647. 22:11growing. There's not a single winner.
  648. 22:13It's not open AI or anthropic. It's not
  649. 22:15closed weights versus open weights. It's
  650. 22:17everyone is winning, right? The pie is
  651. 22:18growing and the headliner chart is this
  652. 22:20one. Token spend is up something like
  653. 22:2280x year-over-year from 4.5 trillion
  654. 22:25tokens to 445 trillion tokens. It's not
  655. 22:29exponential, but it's close. Every time
  656. 22:31someone thinks something is slowing
  657. 22:32down, every time someone thinks there's
  658. 22:34a wall approaching, there isn't. Growth
  659. 22:36continues. I think the only question
  660. 22:37from a financial perspective is how
  661. 22:40harmful and how much is the US economy
  662. 22:44really banking on the anthropic IPO and
  663. 22:47the open AI IPO going well because this
  664. 22:49could pop the financial AI bubble. As we
  665. 22:52can see here, there isn't really an AI
  666. 22:54bubble. This is very raw useful
  667. 22:56technology. People point to crypto a lot
  668. 22:59saying that that technology was
  669. 23:00preemptive. I think crypto is also
  670. 23:02useful, but it was much harder to
  671. 23:04measure its usefulness. Now we know that
  672. 23:06crypto is also very useful, very
  673. 23:08relevant. But it's much easier to see
  674. 23:10here in the open router data, right? And
  675. 23:12again, this is just the public data.
  676. 23:14Enthropic openi, they have their own
  677. 23:15internal numbers that probably look a
  678. 23:17lot like this, maybe even steeper.
  679. 23:19What's old is new. Again, we have the
  680. 23:22Jev model creating space for new species
  681. 23:24of models, right? We have these new
  682. 23:26decision models coming into play here.
  683. 23:28These are very, very powerful models to
  684. 23:30help you make decisions in your work and
  685. 23:32in your software. Again, check out last
  686. 23:33week's video where we broke down 10
  687. 23:35levels of Jev for Agentic Engineers. The
  688. 23:37pie is actively getting bigger. There
  689. 23:40are no winners, but what there is is a
  690. 23:42bunch of options for you and I to scale
  691. 23:44their compute, to scale their impact. I
  692. 23:45think the big question for you and I
  693. 23:47going forward is constantly thinking,
  694. 23:49how can I increase my token spend in the
  695. 23:51most useful way? And so oftent times
  696. 23:53what I do is I throw state-of-the-art
  697. 23:56models at the problem I'm trying to
  698. 23:57solve. And then if I have to solve the
  699. 23:58problem repeatedly, I try to scale it
  700. 24:00down to cheaper, faster, more performant
  701. 24:02models. That's the big reason I like to
  702. 24:04maintain this model stack. Soon I'll be
  703. 24:06releasing in a gentically updated model
  704. 24:09stack that conglomerates a lot of the
  705. 24:11best benchmarks I look at for long
  706. 24:13horizon outloop agentic coding work. So
  707. 24:16you can, you know, play with that. You
  708. 24:17can analyze that to see how it compares
  709. 24:18to your model stack and how you think
  710. 24:20about the tier list of models. That's
  711. 24:23the name of the game. It's understand
  712. 24:24the technology, understand the
  713. 24:26intelligence available to you. So you
  714. 24:27can deploy it at the right performance,
  715. 24:29speed, cost trade-off for your work, for
  716. 24:31your use cases. I think when we look at
  717. 24:33models like Jev, we can expect to see a
  718. 24:36continuation of new species of models,
  719. 24:39not just language models to put in
  720. 24:41agents, but classifiers, decision
  721. 24:43makers, and other more specialized
  722. 24:45models that we can't even imagine right
  723. 24:47now. So big shout out to Jeff for paving
  724. 24:49the way. Again, check out last week's
  725. 24:50video to deeply understand Jeff. I think
  726. 24:53the most important thing every engineer
  727. 24:54can do right now is be prepared for the
  728. 24:57intelligence explosion to continue. That
  729. 25:00means using models like Jev to route to
  730. 25:02the right models to the right agents to
  731. 25:04the right workflows and it means
  732. 25:06understanding what model you need for
  733. 25:08the right time at the right price. You
  734. 25:10want to be managing your tokconomics for
  735. 25:12your inloop agentic coding work. And
  736. 25:13more and more the big unlock for
  737. 25:15engineers really focus on the signal is
  738. 25:17outloop agentic coding and more
  739. 25:20specifically outloop agentic
  740. 25:21engineering. For every engineer that
  741. 25:23made it to the end of this video, you
  742. 25:24know, big shout out to you. Thank you.
  743. 25:26That pre-signup for the phase 3 agentic
  744. 25:28engineering product is now available.
  745. 25:30Sign up is the first link in the
  746. 25:32description. There's going to be an
  747. 25:33optional quiz so I can optimize the
  748. 25:35product for you as soon as you sign up
  749. 25:37or as soon as you register if you're
  750. 25:38already an Aentic engineering [music]
  751. 25:40member. This will get you on the email
  752. 25:41list. We're going to be sharing
  753. 25:43exclusive big ideas and content from
  754. 25:46that next product that's coming [music]
  755. 25:47up. The Facebook product is consuming
  756. 25:49all of my time right now and making it
  757. 25:51the best thing possible for you and it's
  758. 25:53really turning out great. You know, it's
  759. 25:54crazy [music] to say this, but I think
  760. 25:55this is going to be the most valuable
  761. 25:56product I've ever created. Look out for
  762. 25:58an early December, late November launch.
  763. 26:01You [music] know where to find me every
  764. 26:02single Monday. Stay focused and keep
  765. 26:05building.

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