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Nvidia fällt: Ist das die Kaufchance oder erst der Anfang? — Transcript

by STA Solutions · 2,104 words · 362 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:01Nvidia’s stock price is currently in
0:04free fall, having dropped about 30%over
0:07the past month alone, with intraday
0:10downward moves of around 10%or even more
0:13recurring recently.
0:16For a stock with such a strong trend as
0:18Nvidia, that is definitely not the norm
0:20, but rather the exception.
0:22Consequently, a quite dynamic downward
0:24movement has developed recently, as I
0:26mentioned.
0:27From a fundamental perspective, this can
0:30be justified by several points.
0:33On one hand, persistent high inflation
0:36in the US remains a relevant issue,
0:38keeping concerns alive regarding
0:40potential interest rate hikes by the Fed
0:43and, accordingly, a prolonged
0:45restrictive monetary policy.
0:50Furthermore, a rumor has been
0:52circulating in the market for a few days
0:54that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang allegedly
0:56maintained a, let's call it, personal
0:59relationship—others might call it an
1:01affair—with a suspected spy from the
1:03Eastern region over a longer period.
1:08At this point, however, I want to
1:11explicitly point out that these are just
1:13speculations for now and it is unclear
1:16which, if any, sensitive information
1:19might have been lost by the company.
1:23Moreover, I must also point out that
1:25industrial espionage in the environment
1:27of large technology corporations is
1:29absolutely not an unknown phenomenon. It
1:32is perhaps almost more the rule than the
1:34exception. So, in my opinion, if I may
1:37be allowed to say, this topic is being
1:39heavily blown out of proportion by the
1:41media and is therefore not in line with
1:44the current stock reactions at all.
1:47For us as technically and rationally
1:50oriented investors, the question is how
1:53to classify these recent losses.
1:57Is the current pullback potentially an
1:59attractive buying opportunity, or are we
2:01seeing the beginning of something larger
2:03, such as a bear market?
2:06That is exactly the question we want to
2:08address in today's analysis. My name is
2:11Jonas Fischer. I have been a stock
2:13investor for over ten years and work as
2:16an analyst at STA Solutions.
2:19Before we dive into the analysis, I
2:21would like to note that all information
2:24presented in this video is for general
2:26informational purposes only and does not
2:29constitute individual buy or sell
2:31recommendations.
2:34To better categorize the current
2:36downward movement, we first need to
2:38start our analysis on the long-term
2:39daily chart.
2:41It is visible here in the background,
2:43and if we zoom out a bit, we see
2:45relatively quickly that not too much has
2:48happened yet. That is, of course, a
2:50matter of definition.
2:52Sure, 30%is no walk in the park, even
2:54for Nvidia, which is a somewhat more
2:56volatile stock.
2:58Nevertheless, we recognize that when
3:00looking at the long-term trend over the
3:03past few years, the price is still in a
3:05relatively stable upward trend, and
3:07accordingly, there is no reason for
3:09panic in the current phase.
3:12If we zoom in a little closer, it should
3:14be assumed from the wave structures that
3:17the price is currently in a long-term
3:19uptrend.
3:20This uptrend is developing according to
3:23the orange count.
3:25Accordingly, there is still further
3:27upside potential in wave three before a
3:29larger intermediate correction in wave
3:32four should follow, and the price would
3:34then complete its long-term uptrend in
3:37the form of a higher-level wave one.
3:40So, based on the current data, it does
3:42not look like the price will enter a
3:44major bear market anytime soon or over
3:47the next few months, even if the risk
3:49has obviously increased significantly
3:52with the recent bearish momentum.
3:55Nevertheless, one must put this into
3:57context, and it is noteworthy that the
4:00price still has to develop another
4:02five-part upward movement in wave three
4:05within the fractal.
4:07This is developing via waves one, two,
4:10and three. Wave three should already be
4:12complete. With the recent downward
4:14movement, the price is now extending
4:17part of wave four.
4:19However, I should add right away that
4:21this is likely already the final
4:23downward movement of this wave four.
4:26First, to touch on the rule-based target
4:29zone, the statistically most probable
4:31trend reversal area for wave four ranges
4:34between 137 and approximately 190
4:36dollars.
4:38The price already approached this
4:40reversal area during the correction this
4:43summer and reacted at the upper edge.
4:46This triggered the bullish
4:48counter-reaction leading to the new
4:50all-time high of approximately 243
4:52dollars.
4:53From there, however, we are now seeing
4:55this stronger downward reaction, which
4:57would correspond to a deeper development
5:00of this wave four. According to
5:02technical analysis, this downward
5:04movement corresponds to an ABC flat
5:06structure.
5:07This is the pattern marked here in pink
5:10. Wave A is complete.
5:13Wave B has developed an expanding flat
5:16structure, meaning a slightly
5:17overshooting wave B. Now, the rather
5:20aggressive downward movement is quite
5:22characteristic of a wave C. As I said,
5:25this should complete the higher-level
5:27four, and it should happen relatively
5:29soon because the price doesn't really
5:32have much downside potential left.
5:35Of course, one must also put downside
5:36potential into perspective.
5:38When a price is very high, it generally
5:40has a lot of downside potential, but
5:42technical indicators, which I would like
5:44to move on to now, also play a role in
5:46this context.
5:47The daily chart can be seen here on the
5:49left, and the four-hour chart on the
5:51right.
5:53The usual indicators should be clear,
5:55the MACD, with which we can classify
5:57trend strength and reversal signals, as
5:59well as the underlying RSI, which allows
6:01us to estimate potential.
6:04And I would like to start right with
6:06that. We see here that the price has now
6:08reached a more strongly oversold area,
6:11in both the 4-hour and daily charts.
6:14And this simply makes it more likely
6:16that the price will no longer continue
6:18to trend bearishly with massive strength
6:20, but rather that a trend reversal is
6:22imminent.
6:24However, we see via the MACD that we
6:26currently still have relatively high
6:28bearish momentum and the average lines
6:31are also falling relatively parallel.
6:34This indicates that the downward trend
6:36is still stable.
6:38But we can also see that the indicator
6:41has already cooled down significantly,
6:43which makes it more likely that this
6:46high bearish momentum will weaken,
6:48resulting only in slight downward price
6:51reactions.
6:53So, generally speaking, bullish
6:54counter-reactions are becoming more
6:56probable.
6:57We also see here that trading volume has
6:59increased massively with this current
7:00downward movement.
7:02This also suggests that investors are
7:04interested in catching the lower price
7:07levels and trading accordingly.
7:09Primarily, this should be evaluated as
7:11emerging buying interest.
7:13So the price should imminently fall a
7:15little bit further.
7:17That is fundamentally justifiable, but
7:18the downside potential—the air is
7:20running out in the short term.
7:23A bullish counter-reaction is becoming
7:25more likely, and we will then have to
7:28evaluate how the price would practically
7:30rise.
7:32For now, we have the high bearish
7:33momentum from the all-time high.
7:36If the price can only trend in a
7:38corrective bullish direction afterwards
7:40, for example via a three-part move or a
7:42type of bear flag, such as an upward
7:44channel, then we must be cautious; it
7:46becomes more likely that the price will
7:48transition into further downward
7:49movements.
7:52However, it would also be quite
7:54conceivable—and returning to the daily
7:56chart here—that we get a small fake-out
7:59, like during the Tariff Crisis back in
8:01April 2025, where the price falls a bit
8:04lower first, but then reacts relatively
8:06strongly in a bullish manner.
8:09That was particularly striking in this
8:11phase here. Back then, we also had a
8:13structurally lower low, which the price
8:15should also develop recently or,
8:17strictly speaking, has already developed
8:20. The $ 164 level is noteworthy there.
8:23This is not yet depicted here, but
8:25looking at the futures markets, it can
8:27be seen pre-market here, the $ 164 mark
8:29has already been breached.
8:31That happened during the night from the
8:3411th. to the 12th. of November,
8:36practically speaking.
8:37So, this structurally lower low, similar
8:40to this phase here, has already been
8:42developed accordingly, and yet the
8:45prospect is now there if the price
8:47completes wave 4 soon.
8:50The .382 level is also nearby, which is
8:52incidentally the optimal target for a
8:54wave 4, so that exactly like here, a
8:56bullish phase develops again, meaning a
8:58brief liquidity grab is carried out, so
9:00to speak.
9:03Below such a structural low, there are
9:05always many stop losses and liquidation
9:07prices of traders who are using high
9:09leverage, or leverage in general, and
9:11that is precisely what often attracts
9:13the market.
9:15These stop losses are then triggered,
9:17the liquidity is fished out, and then a
9:20strong upward movement occurs, such as a
9:23V-shaped recovery here, and we have this
9:25prospect in the current phase as well.
9:29Accordingly, there is fundamentally a
9:30buying opportunity here for the time
9:32being. However, I would still be a bit
9:34cautious because further downward
9:36movements must be factored in. In this
9:38regard, let’s take a look at the
9:39short-term 4-hour chart.
9:41Here we can see that wave C is not yet
9:43ruled out. It should develop from the
9:46high of wave B via a five-part impulse
9:48structure in the fractal. This is the
9:50yellow count; for our insight here,
9:52waves 1 and 2 can be relatively
9:54undisputed as completed.
9:56Wave 3 could potentially extend a little
9:59bit lower. Overall, however, wave 3
10:01should be close to its completion.
10:04We can see here that the trading volume
10:06is spiking relatively strongly, and
10:08technical indicators—like the trading
10:11volume, the MACD, and the RSI—are quite
10:13characteristic of the end of a wave 3.
10:16So, it should be completed soon.
10:19Then we would tend to get another
10:21bullish phase in wave 4.
10:23It shouldn't be particularly pronounced
10:25and could, in case of doubt, already be
10:26completed. However, in both cases—
10:29regardless of whether wave 4 trends
10:31higher in the short term, wave 3 goes
10:33lower or not—a final downward reaction
10:36in wave 5 should still be pending after
10:39this sequence is completed.
10:41So we probably haven't finished with the
10:43current sell-off; further volatility
10:45must be expected.
10:47Should the price remain below the
10:49important $ 164 level for a longer
10:51period, i.e., the structural low that
10:53was developed here during the March
10:55correction, then it becomes riskier with
10:57regard to a bear market.
10:59But if the price only stays below it
11:01briefly and can then recover in a
11:03V-shape, also in terms of bullish
11:05reversal signals, such as five-part
11:08moves that would then develop in a
11:10bullish direction again, then this
11:12signal is rather to be ignored, it
11:14should be assessed as a fakeout, and
11:16would therefore not justify a sustained
11:18sell signal.
11:20An investment strategy can look like
11:22this.
11:23At the current levels, we are now at a
11:25discount of about 30 percent compared to
11:27the all-time high, so building initial
11:29positions would be absolutely
11:31justifiable.
11:32However, I would be cautious with all-in
11:34positions.
11:36Anything that is all-in belongs in a
11:38casino or to speculative objects
11:40accordingly.
11:43Nvidia is an investment vehicle, and it
11:45is important to make strategically smart
11:47investment and trading decisions
11:48accordingly.
11:51In this respect, you could definitely
11:53place initial purchases at current
11:55levels to finally have a first foot in
11:57the door.
11:58But also hold back further capital in
12:00case the price falls lower.
12:02Then you have a bit of powder left to be
12:05able to add more at lower levels later
12:07on.
12:08This is then beneficial to the average
12:10price accordingly.
12:12We are also internally preparing for a
12:14possible buying phase, as the
12:15higher-level target zone has now been
12:17reached and initial precise price
12:19targets can already be measured.
12:22At this point, I would also like to
12:23leave you with an important thought. The
12:26greatest opportunities in the financial
12:28markets arise precisely when fear among
12:29market participants is at its greatest.
12:32Those who only invest when the news
12:35situation is particularly bullish and
12:37prices have already risen sharply risk
12:40entering at a very unfavorable time and
12:42run the risk of buying the top and,
12:45consequently, sitting in loss phases for
12:47a long time.
12:49Accordingly, it is important, especially
12:51during pronounced correction phases, to
12:53keep a cool head and objectively
12:55evaluate potential buying opportunities
12:57.
12:58With a continuing downward structure,
13:00our precise price targets should then be
13:02able to be narrowed down even further.
13:05Should you be interested in this, feel
13:07free to take a look at our website. The
13:09link is in the video description.
13:11Furthermore, I would also recommend that
13:13you subscribe to our YouTube channel.
13:15Of course, I would also be happy if you
13:18gave today's analysis a thumbs up,
13:20provided you found value in this video.
13:23With that, I thank you for your
13:25attention and, of course, wish you all
13:26the best and much success in the
13:28financial markets.

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