NUNCA FIQUE 100% INVESTIDO EM BITCOIN DURANTE UM BULL MARKET — Transcript

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1. 0:00For the first time since January, the
2. 0:01crypto market is back to being worth
3. 0:03over 3 trillion in total size, right?
4. 0:05You can see it in those total two and
5. 0:06total one charts. Bitcoin skyrocketed
6. 0:08to 87,381. 381, the highest peak in 8
7. 0:13months. And ETFs raised almost 1
8. 0:15billion in just one day. But underneath
9. 0:17the party, there's a detail I don't
10. 0:18ignore, you know? Basically, we have
11. 0:22the issue of a successive increase in
12. 0:26leverage. And the greater the amount of
13. 0:30leverage and the more aggressive that
14. 0:32leverage is, the larger the
15. 0:33capitulation. If there are still many
16. 0:37people worried about whether it will
17. 0:39fall or rise, and not as many people
18. 0:42opening long positions—meaning, if
19. 0:44you don't have a ratio of 99%of people
20. 0:47going long and only 1%going short, or
21. 0:4980%long and 20%short. If it's more
22. 0:53balanced, like 60%long and 40%short,
23. 0:55the market should still rise further
24. 0:57until that long-short ratio gets skewed
25. 0:59, leaving everyone going long and many
26. 1:02people opening call options, betting on
27. 1:04the upside, so that there is maximum
28. 1:06liquidity concentrated to the downside.
29. 1:10On some day, in some week, randomly,
30. 1:12they will go after that liquidity, and
31. 1:15that triggers the capitulation—that
32. 1:17aggressive 50%drop in just one day just
33. 1:19to liquidate. The secondary market. So,
34. 1:23big money is back in the ETFs, who
35. 1:25cares. Nobody cares about this [ __ ]
36. 1:27of whether money is entering ETFs or
37. 1:29not. Why? Because it's Smart Money
38. 1:31putting that money in. 999 million
39. 1:34dollars. It's not us here putting in
40. 1:37money, or some Americans or Indians
41. 1:39buying Bitcoin. No. Smart money is back
42. 1:44. The one who puts a billion into the
43. 1:46market is smart money. That's it. No,
44. 1:48it's not a group of retail investors.
45. 1:50Forget that crap. So, leverage is
46. 1:52always growing, right? Because bullish
47. 1:54impulses make leverage go up. That's
48. 1:56what a Bull Market is for. Price is not
49. 2:00the same as value. So, a good part of
50. 2:03the rise came from a short squeeze.
51. 2:04Those betting on a fall were forced to
52. 2:06buy. When you trigger many people
53. 2:09betting on a fall, you cause this surge
54. 2:11, this strong rise called an elephant
55. 2:13bar. This 3-month bullish bar is an
56. 2:16elephant bar; it's a bar that initiates
57. 2:18a bull market. As the analyst says,
58. 2:20this generates price, but it doesn't
59. 2:22generate price holders, right? It goes
60. 2:24up fast, but it can collapse just the
61. 2:25same. So, in the case of 3 months, it
62. 2:29might take 6, 9, or 12 months to have a
63. 2:32large liquidity hunt. It may take 24
64. 2:36months, 32 months, but eventually, that
65. 2:39big capitulation arrives. The most
66. 2:42common ones that happen once a year are
67. 2:44the medium ones. The medium ones would
68. 2:46be, for example, the price dropping
69. 2:48from 85 back to 68. That would be a
70. 2:51medium-sized capitulation, okay? It
71. 2:53wouldn't be a 50%drop. Big
72. 2:56capitulations would be Bitcoin going
73. 2:58from 85 and falling to 40,000. That
74. 3:02would be a giant capitulation, okay?
75. 3:04What are the chances of it happening?
76. 3:06Much lower than the medium
77. 3:07capitulations, okay? But they do happen
78. 3:11; it just might not be this year, it
79. 3:13could be next year, another year, or
80. 3:16maybe 2029, anyway, it could be any
81. 3:18random year, but it will happen on
82. 3:20average once every 5 or 6 years, this
83. 3:23crap happens, okay? Where it takes
84. 3:27everything down, gold, silver, and
85. 3:29screw oil, that whole thing, "oh, I'll
86. 3:31buy assets to protect myself from big
87. 3:34drops." It doesn't exist. It doesn't
88. 3:37exist. In the pandemic capitulation,
89. 3:40there wasn't a single asset that didn't
90. 3:43fall. All of them. Gold fell, it
91. 3:45plummeted like hell. Silver fell, it
92. 3:46plummeted like hell. Bronze, everything
93. 3:48fell. Everything. Stocks, cryptos. "Oh,
94. 3:51but Bitcoin was believed to be a store
95. 3:52of value." A joke. A joke. Bitcoin
96. 3:56doesn't serve as a store of value here
97. 3:58or anywhere else. It's good for
98. 4:00absolutely nothing. Bitcoin is just
99. 4:03another one of the assets that Smart
100. 4:05Money uses for manipulation. Period.
101. 4:10Okay? There is nothing that protects
102. 4:13you, no asset you stay in majority.
103. 4:16What protects you is the dollar. Why?
104. 4:18Because whoever has more food during a
105. 4:21giant capitulation, that is, whoever
106. 4:23has more dollars, has more freedom for
107. 4:25decision-making. When you don't have
108. 4:27dollars, you have no options. You put
109. 4:30your money in variable income, you are
110. 4:33exposed to the volatility that whales
111. 4:36control, that pilot whales control,
112. 4:39pilot dolphins, whatever, when you take
113. 4:42it out and stay in $ 100, especially
114. 4:45the dollar, okay? And let's take the
115. 4:47main currency on the planet which is
116. 4:49the most stable. $. If you stay in $ in
117. 4:54a capitulation scenario, you have no
118. 4:55choice. You will have to accept seeing
119. 4:59that drop, even if you don't realize it
120. 5:01, but you have no option to buy. You
121. 5:04will miss the opportunity cost of
122. 5:06buying along with the institutional
123. 5:07players who caused that big drop during
124. 5:09the bull market. So, in a bull market,
125. 5:14you never stay 100%in the market. You
126. 5:19always have to have at least 20%in
127. 5:21dollars. The market rose, and your cash
128. 5:26started losing its share; it went from
129. 5:2920%in dollars, and started to be worth
130. 5:3118, 15, 16, 11%, because depending on
131. 5:34the rally you catch, your cash will
132. 5:36represent less of your portfolio. There
133. 5:40comes a time when you have to take
134. 5:42profit and start feeding your cash
135. 5:43again so it can rebalance back to 20%.
136. 5:47If you don't do that, you won't have
137. 5:49that 20%ready for the capitulation, get
138. 5:53it? So, always, in every situation, you
139. 5:56must have a bull market with cash. 20%
140. 6:03for those who are more aggressive, 30%
141. 6:05for those who aren't as aggressive, 40%
142. 6:08or 50%for those who fear the market,
143. 6:13okay? You never use all your money. You
144. 6:18leave your money earning in some random
145. 6:19fixed-income asset. Oh man, just leave
146. 6:21it anywhere, leave it in a savings box
147. 6:24at a bank, I mean, a savings box is in
148. 6:26Reais, right? But keep it in digital
149. 6:28dollars, I don't know, open a global
150. 6:31account and leave it in dollars. You
151. 6:33took R $ 100,000; R $ 20,000 is for
152. 6:35that, for that specific purpose. "Oh,
153. 6:37it went up and my cash is still only
154. 6:3920,000." What do I do? Take profit from
155. 6:44what has risen quite a bit and keep
156. 6:46refilling my cash until it returns to
157. 6:48the 20%proportion. But in a bull market
158. 6:53, it is forbidden to be 100%in
159. 6:55something. Because the only way to
160. 7:00survive in the market isn't by getting
161. 7:03lucky buying something cheap. How many
162. 7:05people have I seen who became
163. 7:06millionaires with Cardano and gave back
164. 7:08all their capital. I've seen people on
165. 7:09the streets. "Oh man, back then I got
166. 7:11rich with Cardano, but then I lost it
167. 7:13all over time by staying in the market.
168. 7:15" Why? Because, if you don't have the
169. 7:20risk management behavior to survive and
170. 7:23recognize a pilot whale, recognize an
171. 7:25orca, if you don't know how to
172. 7:27recognize the movement of an orca, a
173. 7:30blue whale, or a pod of pilot whales,
174. 7:32you're screwed, man. Even if you get it
175. 7:38right for 3 years in a row, you bought,
176. 7:40say, Hyper Liquid, you bought it at a
177. 7:42dollar and it's booming at 100, it's
178. 7:44going up and up, and you put in all
179. 7:46your capital. When you go to take that
180. 7:50profit and try to do it again, you're
181. 7:52going to get screwed, because you had
182. 7:54more luck than sense. You didn't have
183. 7:57competence; you had more luck than
184. 7:59sense. So, in a market where you fight
185. 8:03to make money and take it from others
186. 8:06in order to win, you need to act like a
187. 8:09strategist. If you don't act like a
188. 8:13strategist and burn through all your
189. 8:15pieces, whatever you do, it doesn't
190. 8:17matter if you’ve been a winner for
191. 8:19one, three, or five consecutive years,
192. 8:21or if you only win gold. You only need
193. 8:26one 15-minute capitulation day to wreck
194. 8:28you and catch you on the wrong side of
195. 8:30the trade. The market is no game. And
196. 8:35in a Bull Market, I’m telling you,
197. 8:37very few people leave a Bull Market
198. 8:39with more money than they started with.
199. 8:41Why? Because you can see people here in
200. 8:44the chat who have been in the market
201. 8:45for 5 years and haven't managed to make
202. 8:47more money since the beginning.
203. 8:51You’ll see people with 5 years of
204. 8:52experience who can't make money in the
205. 8:54market. Why? Because the guy stays in
206. 8:57that loop, "Oh, I win, but then I give
207. 8:59it back.""Oh, right now it went really
208. 9:01well, but now I’m screwed.""Oh, I
209. 9:03don't know this, I don't know that."
210. 9:04Why? Because they don't know the enemy.
211. 9:07They don't focus on understanding
212. 9:09market dynamics. First, you never know
213. 9:11when capitulation will happen. It
214. 9:13doesn't matter if you were right and
215. 9:15bought the bottom at 58. That 58 can be
216. 9:19broken by a capitulation and still
217. 9:21maintain the uptrend. That's what I’m
218. 9:23talking about. If you enter with
219. 9:25leverage, you’ll put a stop below 58.
220. 9:29How many people in the world are
221. 9:31entering long on Bitcoin right now,
222. 9:33putting a stop at 58, below 58, the
223. 9:35last visible bottom, and they’re
224. 9:37going long, and then they just get
225. 9:39screwed if it falls to...to 58. Forgive
226. 9:46the optimists, but 58 is an easy target
227. 9:50. A double bottom in a bear market that
228. 9:55dropped much less than other bear
229. 9:57markets is an extremely dangerous
230. 10:00bottom. Why? Because in the others, the
231. 10:04market dropped 80%during the bear
232. 10:06market transition from the bull. From
233. 10:10the bull market top to the bear in this
234. 10:13cycle, this cycle, Bitcoin only fell,
235. 10:16only corrected 53%. That's a very small
236. 10:26correction. In other words, a
237. 10:30capitulation below 57-58 in the next 24
238. 10:35months could happen. And if you aren't
239. 10:40prepared for that, it could happen.
240. 10:42I’m not saying it will, but it could,
241. 10:45okay? Like you, like me, nobody knows,
242. 10:49nobody has control over that, okay? We
243. 10:54can't consider this—we have to keep
244. 10:56in mind that it might be a risk zone,
245. 10:58but that doesn't mean you shouldn't get
246. 11:00in, just thinking "oh no, I'll wait
247. 11:02until it drops to 52, then I'll enter."
248. 11:05No, damn it, what you can do is enter
249. 11:06little by little now, buy a bit, if
250. 11:08you're on the sidelines because you
251. 11:10didn't buy the other dips. And when
252. 11:12there is a capitulation, then you buy
253. 11:15more. In other words, you work to avoid
254. 11:19buying more and more while it’s going
255. 11:22up, avoid buying more and more while
256. 11:24it's rising, just hold, and when there
257. 11:27is a capitulation you buy, okay? A
258. 11:31large red bar in a week of a sharp and
259. 11:34unusual drop is a capitulation, alright
260. 11:38? So that is important.