Not What I Expected: Best and Worst Value One Piece TCG Anniversary Sets (OP05, OP09, OP13) — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Hello and welcome to One Piece of
2. 0:02Insight. In today's video, we will be
3. 0:04looking at the expected value of all
4. 0:06three anniversary sets, OP05, OP09, and
5. 0:11OP13. This is how much value worth of
6. 0:14cards would you expect to get out of
7. 0:15opening a case of one of those sets.
8. 0:18This matters because it tells us a ton
9. 0:20about the relative value of those sets
10. 0:23and how we should be valuing booster
11. 0:24boxes and even the cards inside. So, I
12. 0:26am really excited about this one. It's
13. 0:28taken us a long time to be able to get
14. 0:30enough enough data to be able to do
15. 0:31this. So, I'm really excited that we're
16. 0:33here. So, stay tuned to the end of the
17. 0:35video to find out who was able to guess
18. 0:37correctly, if anybody, in the comments,
19. 0:40uh what the right order of the boxes
20. 0:42was. So, with that, let's jump right
21. 0:43into the content. We're going to start
22. 0:45by reviewing the most expensive cards in
23. 0:47each set. Now, part of the reason why
24. 0:49these three sets are so iconic is
25. 0:51because they have the best chase cards
26. 0:53in One Piece. And so, for OP05, you have
27. 0:56the Gear 5 Luffy manga, which is about
28. 0:58$9,000 raw, with a pull rate of 1 in 9
29. 1:01cases. In OP09, you have the Gold Roger
30. 1:04manga with a raw price of around cases.
31. 1:10And then, in OP13, you have the Red
32. 1:12manga Luffy, worth about $15,000 raw
33. 1:15with a pull rate of 1 in 36 cases. All
34. 1:18right, so let's talk about OP05. So,
35. 1:21just a quick review, the current box
36. 1:23price of OP05 is around $958,
37. 1:26which makes a case price around $11,500,
38. 1:29a case again being 12 boxes.
39. 1:32Okay, so the three categories of cards
40. 1:35that add the most value to a case of
41. 1:37OP05 are the Gear 5 Luffy manga, well,
42. 1:42the mangas in general, right? So, there
43. 1:43are three mangas in the set. Obviously,
44. 1:45we talk about the Luffy cuz that's worth
45. 1:46the most, but there are two other mangas
46. 1:48in the set. And so, the average price of
47. 1:50a manga in OP05 is $3,716,
48. 1:53and on average, you'll pull one out of
49. 1:55every three cases. So, that adds $1,239
50. 1:59to the expected value of a case. This is
51. 2:01quite a lot for single category of cards
52. 2:04as you'll come to see.
53. 2:05But, we also have the Oda signature
54. 2:07card, which raw is going for about
55. 2:09$8,000
56. 2:11and at one in six pull rates is actually
57. 2:13one of the easiest chase cards to pull.
58. 2:16And so, that adds a huge $1,333
59. 2:20to the expected value of OP05. So, as we
60. 2:23will see with some of the other sets,
61. 2:24the chase cards don't always add a ton,
62. 2:27but in this set they really really do.
63. 2:29And then, the third highest category for
64. 2:30OP05 are actually the SPs and this is
65. 2:33primarily brought up by the Nami SP,
66. 2:35which is worth over $500.
67. 2:37The average SP in this set is worth
68. 2:39$211. You're going to get two per case,
69. 2:41so that adds an EV of $422.
70. 2:45So, if we look at the rest of the set,
71. 2:46we can see here that the case expected
72. 2:48value is actually being pulled up a ton
73. 2:51by the chases in this set. You know, the
74. 2:53Oda sig and the manga are just way in
75. 2:55their own league in terms of how much
76. 2:57they add to this value. The SPs pretty
77. 2:59decent here. We have some, you know,
78. 3:00popular alt arts, particularly the alt
79. 3:03secret Luffy, which is like $250, which
80. 3:06is pulling up the average price of an
81. 3:07alt art in this set by a ton. So, that
82. 3:09adds $356 in value. The leaders, the
83. 3:12SRs, and the secrets don't add very much
84. 3:15in this set compared to others, but I
85. 3:18also want to mention the special card,
86. 3:19which we have here on the right, which
87. 3:20was essentially like the budget version
88. 3:23of the Oda signature without the
89. 3:24signature. You get two of those per
90. 3:26case, so that also adds $78 per case.
91. 3:29So, if you were to open a case of OP05,
92. 3:31on average, you would open 0.83 cards
93. 3:34worth over $500. So, there are five
94. 3:36cards in this set that are worth over
95. 3:38$500 and on average, you'll open one of
96. 3:41those cards slightly less than one per
97. 3:43case.
98. 3:44So, now let's talk about OP09. So, OP09
99. 3:47is significantly cheaper than OP05 at a
100. 3:49box price of only $589
101. 3:52and a case price of $7,069.
102. 3:56In terms of the cards that are doing the
103. 3:57most to contribute to the expected value
104. 4:00of the case, you'll notice here that no
105. 4:02single category is even remotely close
106. 4:05to either the Mangas or the Oda Seg from
107. 4:08OP05.
108. 4:09But, what's interesting about OP09 is
109. 4:11that the value of the case is actually
110. 4:13spread out more across card categories.
111. 4:16So, first we have the Gold Roger Manga
112. 4:19with even with a price at $14,000,
113. 4:22because it's so hard to pull at 1 in 24
114. 4:24cases, it's only adding about $538 in
115. 4:27expected value to a case.
116. 4:29Then we have the Mangas in OP09 which
117. 4:32have an average price of 1,675.
118. 4:36I think they're being hurt here by the
119. 4:37fact that there were four different ones
120. 4:39and three of them are not as popular.
121. 4:41Also, even the Luffy in this one is not
122. 4:43all that expensive. So, that's only
123. 4:45adding $558
124. 4:47to the value of a case.
125. 4:49And then finally, we actually have the
126. 4:51category that adds the most value to a
127. 4:53case of OP09 and that are the SPs. The
128. 4:56SPs in OP09 are absolute bangers. You
129. 4:58have the wanted posters, you know, you
130. 5:00have the Boa, you have the Nami. I
131. 5:02didn't put it here, but you also have
132. 5:03the Zoro Juro. All of those cards are
133. 5:05worth over $500. And so, the average
134. 5:08price for an SP in this set is $398.
135. 5:12And since you're getting two of those
136. 5:13per case, that adds $796 worth of value
137. 5:17to a case of OP09.
138. 5:18So, let's look at the rest of the cards.
139. 5:20So, as I mentioned, the SPs are doing
140. 5:22most of the weight here in case value,
141. 5:23which is fascinating because it's so
142. 5:25different from OP05.
143. 5:27Then you have the Mangas, the Gold
144. 5:28Roger, which is like what everybody
145. 5:30thinks of when they think of OP09, is
146. 5:32actually only adding the third most
147. 5:34value to the set, which I found very,
148. 5:35very surprising. The alt arts are doing
149. 5:38a good bit of lifting here as well. We
150. 5:40have some slightly above average leader
151. 5:41cards,
152. 5:43uh, but in general, you know, this is
153. 5:45more evenly distributed across card
154. 5:47categories than we saw in OP05. So,
155. 5:50because there are so many more cards in
156. 5:52this set that are worth $500, you have
157. 5:54the four mangas, you have the Gold
158. 5:56Rogers, so that's five mangas, and then
159. 5:58you have uh I believe four SPs that are
160. 6:01worth over $500. There are nine cards in
161. 6:03this set. In an average case, you'll
162. 6:05open about one and a quarter card uh
163. 6:08over $500. So, it's really interesting
164. 6:11because OP05 is much more of a high roll
165. 6:13set, and this is much more of a set
166. 6:15where the average case will probably
167. 6:17return closer to the expected value than
168. 6:20OP05, which is going to be like, "Did I
169. 6:23hit a big card? If I did, then I got a
170. 6:24lot of money, and if I didn't, uh I
171. 6:26probably lost a whole lot." Finally,
172. 6:28let's talk about OP13. So, OP13 is
173. 6:31extremely similar to OP09, and its box
174. 6:33price is nearly identical at $595,
175. 6:36and its case price at $7,140.
176. 6:40Now, the first thing you might notice
177. 6:41when you look at this screen is that all
178. 6:42three categories have the same exact art
179. 6:44of Luffy, and that is basically the
180. 6:46story of OP13.
181. 6:48The Luffy cards are really, really
182. 6:50carrying the value um of this set. And
183. 6:53so, you have the red mangas, not just a
184. 6:55Luffy, but also the Sabo and the Ace,
185. 6:57with an average price of $8,333,
186. 7:00which of course is enormous, but because
187. 7:03their pull rate is 1 in 12 cases,
188. 7:05they're only adding $695 in value to a
189. 7:08given case. Then we have the regular
190. 7:10mangas, which actually have a fairly low
191. 7:12price because the Sabo and the Ace are
192. 7:14so cheap. So, those are $1,283
193. 7:17with an average pull rate of 1 in 3
194. 7:18cases, adding $429 in value to a case.
195. 7:22And then finally, we actually have the
196. 7:24alt arts in this set clocking in uh as
197. 7:27the second most valuable category of
198. 7:29cards, which is fascinating. There's
199. 7:31none of the other sets are alt arts this
200. 7:34high in the ranking. So, the average alt
201. 7:36art here is $27.70.
202. 7:38This is pulled up by the alt secret
203. 7:40Luffy, but also the divine departure
204. 7:42event manga. So, that's adding $443
205. 7:46to the expected value of a case. So, if
206. 7:48we look at the expected value of
207. 7:50everything that goes into a case of
208. 7:51OP-13, what makes OP-13 stand out so
209. 7:54much is there are so many categories of
210. 7:55cards. So many in fact that I couldn't
211. 7:57actually fit them all on the slide.
212. 7:59There are also Gold Dawn in here, but
213. 8:00they're only adding like 16 bucks to a
214. 8:02case, so I didn't worry about it.
215. 8:04But, you know, you have the red mangas
216. 8:06adding $695.
217. 8:08You have the regular mangas adding $429.
218. 8:11You have the god pack adding only $133
219. 8:15because even though the value of the
220. 8:16pack is around $1,600,
221. 8:18because its pull rate is 1 in 12, it's
222. 8:20just not adding that much. It's
223. 8:22interesting to compare this against the
224. 8:23god pack in PRB01, which because the god
225. 8:26pack in PRB01 was valued at like $17,600
226. 8:32and was actually appeared to be slightly
227. 8:34easier to pull than this one. It's
228. 8:36possible that that's just like a small
229. 8:38sample size in the numbers. It's
230. 8:39possible that the pull rates are
231. 8:41actually the same, but either way that's
232. 8:43contributing so much more to the value
233. 8:45of PRB01 than the god pack is
234. 8:47contributing to the value of OP-13.
235. 8:50Perhaps the most shocking to me was the
236. 8:52SSPs. I expected them to really pull up
237. 8:55the value of OP-13, um but they don't.
238. 8:58And the reason is is because the average
239. 9:00SSP value is only $963.
240. 9:03And at one per case on average, it's
241. 9:05only adding $120 in value to the overall
242. 9:09set. So,
243. 9:11to me, OP-13 is by far the most high
244. 9:13roll of the three sets. You'll notice
245. 9:15that the likelihood of hitting a $500
246. 9:17card in a given set on average, you'll
247. 9:19hit 0.62
248. 9:21uh of a $500 card. So, it's the hardest
249. 9:24to hit an expensive card, but it has,
250. 9:27you know, the most valuable chase of any
251. 9:29of the three boxes. So, I think on
252. 9:31average, if you were to open a case of
253. 9:33OP-13, you you get
254. 9:36a lower ratio of the expected value than
255. 9:39you would have OP05 or OP09 because
256. 9:42those are more consistent and more
257. 9:44balanced across the set, especially OP09
258. 9:46which is very, very balanced. All right,
259. 9:48so let's quickly review the cases that
260. 9:51we have previously looked at the
261. 9:52expected value of. So, we had PRB01
262. 9:55which had an expected value of $3,574
263. 9:59which was a percentage of the case value
264. 10:01that was 42%. And then we had EB02 which
265. 10:05had an expected value of $4,139
266. 10:08and a case EV percentage of 69% which is
267. 10:12absolutely massive. So, I wanted to
268. 10:14quickly look at which cards across all
269. 10:16five of these sets were doing the most
270. 10:19lifting in terms of boosting expected
271. 10:21value for a case.
272. 10:23This may shock a lot of people, but the
273. 10:24number one by a lot is the Gear 2 Luffy
274. 10:28in EB02 at around $5,000 raw because
275. 10:32that card is one in three cases, it is
276. 10:35actually really easy to pull compared to
277. 10:39most of the other cards that we're
278. 10:40looking at. If you compare it to the red
279. 10:42manga which is going for around $15,000,
280. 10:44that's one in 36 cases
281. 10:47versus one in three cases or if you
282. 10:49multiplied that by three, one in nine
283. 10:51cases, right? And so you can see why the
284. 10:53Gear 2 manga is contributing so much
285. 10:55more to the value of EB02 than the red
286. 10:58manga is contributing to OP13.
287. 11:01Next up we have the PRB01 god pack at
288. 11:03$1,408.
289. 11:06As I said, that one is actually not that
290. 11:08difficult to pull compared to some of
291. 11:10the other top chase cards and is just
292. 11:12worth so much, it adds a ton of value.
293. 11:14Same thing with the Oda sig, that's
294. 11:16comparatively easy to pull, so it's
295. 11:18adding again $1,333.
296. 11:20The Gear 5 manga is also relatively easy
297. 11:23to pull compared to the other top chase
298. 11:24cards.
299. 11:25Next up we have the gold SP leaders
300. 11:27which again, because you're guaranteed
301. 11:29to get one in every case for EB02, adds
302. 11:32just a ton of value to a case of EBO2
303. 11:35with an average price of $835.
304. 11:37And to be honest, what I've seen over
305. 11:39the past few weeks, these prices
306. 11:40actually have probably gone up. So, I
307. 11:42wouldn't be surprised if I did this
308. 11:44analysis again, if this was actually
309. 11:46adding even more value to a case of
310. 11:48EBO2. Next on the list, and I feel like
311. 11:50this is going to shock a lot of people,
312. 11:51is the Nami Manga. Again, I think people
313. 11:54underestimate how easy it is to pull a
314. 11:57regular Manga in a regular set. You
315. 11:59know, one in three cases, obviously
316. 12:01that's not easy to pull, but compared to
317. 12:03some of these like really, really
318. 12:04ultimate chase cards, it's much, much
319. 12:07easier. It is 12 times easier to pull a
320. 12:09Nami Manga than it is to pull a red
321. 12:12Luffy. And so, for that reason, even
322. 12:14though the Nami Manga is way cheaper
323. 12:16than the red Luffy, it's actually adding
324. 12:17more value to the case than the red
325. 12:19Luffy does. So, the Nami Manga is adding
326. 12:22$667 to the PRB-01 case value.
327. 12:26Then, we finally have our ultimate hard
328. 12:29to pull chases at the bottom two here.
329. 12:31We have the gold Manga adding $583
330. 12:34and the red Manga only adding $417.
331. 12:37So, what happens when we add this all
332. 12:39up? So, let's start with OPO5, which has
333. 12:42an expected value of $3,693
334. 12:46compared to a case value of $11,500.
335. 12:49And that gives us 32% of the value of a
336. 12:52case. So, if you opened a case of OPO5,
337. 12:55you would expect to get about 32% of
338. 12:57that value back. So again, we don't want
339. 12:59to open a case of any of these because
340. 13:01the expected values are going to be way,
341. 13:03way, way below the case cost.
342. 13:05Now, if we look at OPO9, it has a lower
343. 13:07expected value than OPO5 at $2,672,
344. 13:11but because it's a far cheaper box, its
345. 13:13case expected value is 38%. And then
346. 13:16finally, we have OP13, which has the
347. 13:19lowest expected value of any of the
348. 13:20three boxes at 2,570
349. 13:24and a case EV of 36%.
350. 13:27So, what do we take away from this?
351. 13:28Well, first of all, I was shocked that
352. 13:31OP-13 had the lowest expected value for
353. 13:34a case. I expected it to be higher than
354. 13:37OP-09 just because of how much stuff is
355. 13:39like crammed in these cases, but it
356. 13:41turns out all that stuff, because it's
357. 13:43really, really hard to pull, actually
358. 13:45doesn't add that much value to a case.
359. 13:47And things like the really high-quality
360. 13:49SPs in OP-09, um
361. 13:53just add a ton more value, which is
362. 13:55really, really interesting. My number
363. 13:56one takeaway from looking at this though
364. 13:58is that these case EV percentages are
365. 14:00pretty consistent, you know, relatively
366. 14:03small fluctuations in prices from day to
367. 14:04day, and these case values could be
368. 14:07exactly the same in terms of percentage
369. 14:09of their box cost, which says to me that
370. 14:11all three of these boxes are probably
371. 14:13somewhat fairly priced uh for what you
372. 14:16get inside. We've talked previously
373. 14:18about how at a certain point, you know,
374. 14:20Pokémon boxes stopped being about the
375. 14:22cards that were inside and started being
376. 14:24their own collectibles. I expect the
377. 14:26same thing will happen to One Piece,
378. 14:28which is why I do think that like OP-05
379. 14:31should be more money than OP-09, and why
380. 14:34I think OP-09 should be slightly more
381. 14:36money than OP-13 just because they're
382. 14:38older sets, but I think the fact that
383. 14:40the case EV price is so similar for all
384. 14:44of these sets shows me that the market
385. 14:45has actually done a pretty decent job of
386. 14:47pricing these sets so far. So, the next
387. 14:49question then is how do these cases
388. 14:51stack up against PRB-01 and EBO-02, the
389. 14:54other sets that we looked at.
390. 14:56And the answer is
391. 14:57they don't stack up that well,
392. 14:59to be honest. So,
393. 15:01if you had asked me before I started
394. 15:03this whether I thought there was a
395. 15:05chance that EBO-02, which is by far the
396. 15:08cheapest box of any of these sets, would
397. 15:11have the highest total expected value in
398. 15:14raw dollar terms,
399. 15:16I never would have guessed that, ever.
400. 15:19And yet, it has the highest total
401. 15:22expected
402. 15:23of any of the cases of $4,139.
403. 15:26You have OPO5 in second place, PRBO1 in
404. 15:30third place, OPO9 in fourth place, and
405. 15:34OP13 in fifth place with quite a large
406. 15:37difference between number one and number
407. 15:38five, even though OP13 is like $150 more
408. 15:42expensive than EBO2. And this really
409. 15:45stands out if you look at percentage of
410. 15:47case value. If you open a case of EBO2
411. 15:50you would expect to get 69%
412. 15:53of the value back in cards. Now, I want
413. 15:55to preemptively respond to something I
414. 15:57think someone is going to say in the
415. 15:58comments, which is that part of the
416. 16:00reason EBO2 is so expensive is because
417. 16:02there are actually some playable cards
418. 16:04in there. Super rares and secrets in
419. 16:06that set actually add $756
420. 16:09in expected case value to EBO2. So, if
421. 16:12you got rid of those, if you just think
422. 16:13of it as a collectible, it falls way
423. 16:15down this list. So, yes, it does, but I
424. 16:18actually did an analysis where I removed
425. 16:21the secrets and the alt arts from all of
426. 16:23these sets. And while EBO2 did fall
427. 16:26behind OPO5 in total set value by like a
428. 16:31tiny, tiny amount of money, it was still
429. 16:33by far the best percentage case value of
430. 16:36all the sets. And even in total EV, it
431. 16:38was still second. The chase cards in
432. 16:40EBO2 are really doing a ton of heavy
433. 16:43lifting in the value of the set, even
434. 16:45more so than some of the other sets.
435. 16:47PRBO2 is a little bit of an outlier at
436. 16:5042% compared to the other sets that are
437. 16:52in like the mid 30s.
438. 16:54After EBO2 though, it's really
439. 16:56interesting that the next four sets are
440. 16:57within 10 percentage points of one
441. 16:59another. Again, with like relatively
442. 17:01minor fluctuations in prices, you could
443. 17:03see all of these having about the same
444. 17:06expected value. So,
445. 17:08I did not necessarily expect to find
446. 17:10this, but it seems that like the market
447. 17:11may be pricing these four boxes pretty
448. 17:13well, and that the expected value is
449. 17:15clustering around that like, you know,
450. 17:1835%
451. 17:21rate, which actually I think will be a
452. 17:22really useful metric for looking at
453. 17:24other boxes in the future. So, it will
454. 17:25be really interesting to see if other
455. 17:27boxes fall in that range or if other
456. 17:29boxes are way above that.
457. 17:31Okay. So, in terms of my own
458. 17:33predictions, I as I said, I did not get
459. 17:35these right.
460. 17:36I did expect that EB01 was going to be
461. 17:38the most expensive, but I thought PRB01
462. 17:40would be slightly more than OP05. So, I
463. 17:42was wrong about that. Not a huge
464. 17:43difference in price, but definitely got
465. 17:45that wrong. And then I also thought that
466. 17:47OP13 was going to be worth more than
467. 17:48OP09 just because I thought all the huge
468. 17:51chase cards would pull up the value, but
469. 17:54I was wrong about that, too. I was much
470. 17:55closer on the EV percentage. I got
471. 17:57everything right except for 09 and 13
472. 18:00because they were the same box price and
473. 18:02I expected the total value of 13 to be
474. 18:03higher. I had 13 in third place and I
475. 18:06had OP09 in fourth place. So, even
476. 18:08though I didn't get that one right, I
477. 18:09feel pretty good about that one because
478. 18:11they were pretty close, but man was this
479. 18:13hard and man were these results not
480. 18:15exactly what I expected. But, unlike me,
481. 18:17one of you all did actually get the
482. 18:19right answer. And while I wasn't
483. 18:21entirely clear which of the two
484. 18:22categories they were trying to guess,
485. 18:24I'm going to give them the benefit of
486. 18:25the doubt and say that they got the
487. 18:26expected value percentage correct. So,
488. 18:28congrats to MD Luffy HJ7QT.
489. 18:34Um, this was really, really hard. I got
490. 18:36it wrong. Everybody else got it wrong.
491. 18:37So, kudos to you for getting it right.
492. 18:39But, even though MD Luffy was the only
493. 18:42one to get it correct, to give a couple
494. 18:44honorable mentions to people who got
495. 18:45sort of the right idea. So, congrats to
496. 18:49A Stamp Edge, James Dang 5395,
497. 18:52Frank JAG, and Vinteppa Sweeza N9H, uh,
498. 18:57who got in generally the right ballpark
499. 18:59of the right answer. Okay. So, what are
500. 19:02we taking away from this analysis that
501. 19:04we can actually use? So, I wanted to go
502. 19:06through my personal ranking of these
503. 19:08five boxes after having looked at all
504. 19:10this data. This is not going to shock
505. 19:12you, but the easy number one here for me
506. 19:14is EBO2. Not only does it have the best
507. 19:17expected value relative to its cost, it
508. 19:19has the highest total expected value
509. 19:21right now. And even if you fast forward
510. 19:24a year from now and drastically reduce
511. 19:26the value of all of the playable cards
512. 19:27in the set, it still holds up really
513. 19:30well just based on the top chases alone.
514. 19:32And keep in mind that expected value
515. 19:35does not actually take into account the
516. 19:37rarity of this set. So, compared to
517. 19:40OPO5, OPO9, and OP13, which I estimated
518. 19:44had between like 37 and 40,000 cases
519. 19:48opened,
520. 19:49I estimate that EBO2 only had 10,000
521. 19:51cases opened. So, we're talking about a
522. 19:53universe where there may be four times
523. 19:55as many of these other boxes as EBO2.
524. 19:58Again, I don't know what percentage of
525. 20:00the total print run was opened, right?
526. 20:02So, maybe there's more EBO2 still sealed
527. 20:04than the other sets,
528. 20:06but I'm kind of skeptical of that, to be
529. 20:07honest. So, for all of those reasons,
530. 20:10EBO2 for me is the number one sealed
531. 20:13product that I would buy. After that, I
532. 20:15really like PRB01. I think that the God
533. 20:17Pack is proving to not be as hard to
534. 20:20open as some of the other chases, right?
535. 20:22Even if it is the same pull rate as the
536. 20:25Demon God Pack in OP13, that's still
537. 20:28half as hard to pull as the Gold Roger
538. 20:30Manga and a third as hard to pull as the
539. 20:33Red Luffy Manga. And so, for that
540. 20:35reason, and given how iconic PRB01
541. 20:37already is, I can see it doing a little
542. 20:39bit better long term than some of its
543. 20:40peers.
544. 20:42After that, I like OPO5. This is mostly
545. 20:43because I just think OPO5 is such an
546. 20:45iconic set. You know, you have the Gear
547. 20:475 Luffy on the box art. Like, of all of
548. 20:50these boxes, this is the one that is
549. 20:51most likely to become a collectible in
550. 20:53its own right, separate from the value
551. 20:55of cards inside. So, even though this
552. 20:57one has the lowest expected value as a
553. 20:59percentage of its cost, I think that's
554. 21:01totally justified here. And so, I, you
555. 21:03know, still think that this one is
556. 21:05fairly priced, even if I don't think
557. 21:07it's like a screaming buy at its current
558. 21:08price.
559. 21:10And then between OP09 and OP05, these
560. 21:13are fairly comparable to me. I think
561. 21:15that OP09 has an edge because the value
562. 21:19of the secondary cards are much more
563. 21:22balanced. Like I really like the fact
564. 21:23that the SPs are worth so much more than
565. 21:27OP13. I also like the fact that I think
566. 21:29it's probably a slightly smaller print
567. 21:31run than OP13. I don't think the
568. 21:33difference is massive, but I do think
569. 21:35there could pretty big difference in how
570. 21:37much of the product remains sealed. And
571. 21:39here's my logic.
572. 21:41OP09 was down to like 150 bucks after
573. 21:45release. And so like I opened six boxes
574. 21:48of OP09 because it wasn't that expensive
575. 21:50and I could.
576. 21:52But OP13 because it was so expensive
577. 21:55after release, 400, 500, even 600
578. 21:57dollars,
579. 21:59I know I only opened one box and I kept
580. 22:01the rest of mine sealed. And so for that
581. 22:03reason, I think there's an argument that
582. 22:05says like a higher percentage of OP09
583. 22:07was opened than OP13. And so that gives
584. 22:10it a slight edge for me over OP13, but I
585. 22:13consider all of these to be relatively
586. 22:14comparable.
587. 22:15You know, in terms of how I feel in
588. 22:17general, for me EB02 is still like a
589. 22:19five-star price. PRB01 I would say is
590. 22:22like a high three to a low four-star
591. 22:24price. And three, four, and five to me
592. 22:26are all like in the three-star range. So
593. 22:29I'm kind of impressed actually at how
594. 22:30well the market has priced these boxes
595. 22:32relative to the cost of the cards
596. 22:34inside. I do want to do more analysis to
597. 22:36see how it stacks up against other cases
598. 22:38and also how it stacks up against like
599. 22:40modern Pokémon sets, but I do think it's
600. 22:42really interesting that they've all
601. 22:43clustered around that like 35 to 40% uh
602. 22:47expected case value.
603. 22:49That's all I have for today. I hope you
604. 22:50found this as interesting and
605. 22:51informative as I did. As always, you
606. 22:54know, please like, comment, and if you
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614. 23:08lot. Big thanks to those who've been
615. 23:10using it. So, as always, I appreciate
616. 23:12you all spending your time with me, and
617. 23:14I will see you in the next one.