NFP Trading: How to Trade the US Non-Farm Payrolls | Gold & USD Outlook #marketupdate — Transcript

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1. 0:00Good day, team GCI. This week in the
2. 0:02economic calendar, we have the most
3. 0:03important event of the month, the US
4. 0:05non-farm payrolls or the NFPs. As a
5. 0:08rehearsal, we had the US GDP and core
6. 0:10PCE yesterday. Let's see how we traded
7. 0:13it. I'm Brad Alexander, and in today's
8. 0:15market outlook, let's take a look at
9. 0:16forex trading on the Nasdaq, the Dow
10. 0:18Jones Industrial Average, gold, dollar
11. 0:20CAD, kiwi dollar, and euro dollar.
12. 0:23Just a reminder that these videos are
13. 0:24intended as educational and
14. 0:26observational and are not to be
15. 0:27considered as trading advice.
16. 0:30>> [music]
17. 0:32>> You may have seen me talking about
18. 0:34trading news events, and I always go to
19. 0:36some basic rules to follow. Firstly, we
20. 0:38always trade news events after the
21. 0:40event, not before, not during. Trading
22. 0:43before news events is gambling. You
23. 0:45don't know which way it will go. As the
24. 0:47figures are announced, the spreads may
25. 0:48widen severely, making any trades
26. 0:50unpredictable, and you will not likely
27. 0:52be able to enter the market where you
28. 0:54want. After the event is where you want
29. 0:56to enter.
30. 0:57Second rule, always trade with the
31. 0:59trend. So, we're looking for news events
32. 1:01to send price action against the trend,
33. 1:03so we can open positions with the trend.
34. 1:06As an example, before the US news
35. 1:08yesterday, we looked at all US dollar
36. 1:10pairs, including gold, and we found
37. 1:12uptrends, downtrends, and ranging
38. 1:13markets. So, these days, generally, US
39. 1:16dollar is getting stronger for many
40. 1:18reasons, and you can refer back to
41. 1:19previous videos to see why.
42. 1:21For example here, euro dollar is in a
43. 1:24clear bearish run, so we want to see any
44. 1:26economic news drive price action against
45. 1:28the trend, so we can trade with the
46. 1:30trend. Yes, I have to repeat that
47. 1:32concept. It is seriously important. So,
48. 1:36when the news hits, we need to be on a
49. 1:37lower time frame, and we can see what
50. 1:39happened. We only had a spike of about
51. 1:4120 pips, but that's enough. We monitored
52. 1:44several pairs on several time frames,
53. 1:46and we waited for our ADX indicator to
54. 1:48tell us when the move was exhausted.
55. 1:50Specifically, the DI plus turning over
56. 1:52from its peak.
57. 1:54Then, we see the stochastic oscillator
58. 1:56turning over to the downside.
59. 1:58And as more confirmation, we see price
60. 2:00action had risen to the upper trend line
61. 2:02on longer time frames.
62. 2:04We had similar results on Kiwi dollar,
63. 2:06Aussie dollar, and a long trade on
64. 2:08dollar CAD, all to follow US dollar
65. 2:10getting stronger.
66. 2:12We have the US non-farm payrolls, so we
67. 2:14again will be looking for price action
68. 2:16on US dollar pairs to do exactly what it
69. 2:18did yesterday, but maybe even more.
70. 2:21Also, if we look at all the daily charts
71. 2:23on US dollar pairs, we note that many
72. 2:25are already at key levels, so be
73. 2:27careful.
74. 2:28In the theme of a stronger US dollar, we
75. 2:30are monitoring the upper trend line of a
76. 2:32bear run on gold, so watch price action
77. 2:34and your favorite technical indicators,
78. 2:36but don't try to trade too close to the
79. 2:38NFPs.
80. 2:40Looking at the United States indices, we
81. 2:41see the Nasdaq again benefiting from
82. 2:43renewed AI enthusiasm. The Dow Jones
83. 2:46Industrial Average is still falling
84. 2:48based on high crude prices and the
85. 2:49threat of higher interest rates.
86. 2:51That's all for now. CFDs and FX are
87. 2:54leveraged products, and your capital may
88. 2:56be at risk.