YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → NFL Picks Week 6 2026 | NFL Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props

NFL Picks Week 6 2026 | NFL Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props — Transcript

by Guy Boston Sports · 12,402 words · 1,730 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00All right, YouTube. How you doing?
0:02Welcome back to the channel and welcome
0:03into another week of the NFL. We got the
0:06Sunday slate to dive into in today's
0:09video. Like we always do, I'm going to
0:10dive into each and every one of these
0:12games. We'll break them down. I'll give
0:13you my prediction on the side. I'll give
0:15you my prediction on the total. We'll
0:17talk about any other plays like player
0:18props. And I've been hearing the
0:20comments. We got some more, much more
0:22player props in today's video. But we'll
0:24go through all that, guys. But as
0:25always, make sure to keep an eye down on
0:27the pinned comment of this video. That's
0:30where you'll find all of my final plays.
0:32So what I'm actually rolling with
0:33myself. If that does interest you, if
0:35you do want to fade me, all of that
0:37absolutely free down in the pinned
0:39comment. All right, YouTube. How you
0:41doing? Welcome back to the channel. I
0:43tell you guys they're my dummy all the
0:44time. They don't suck. They've just been
0:46sucking. Get them down to minus three.
0:48More juice than Jose Canseco in his
0:50prime. Tell me you're new without
0:51telling me you're new. So don't go
0:53jumping down my throat in the comments,
0:54right? If you want to fade me or if you
0:56do want to ride with me, it still leaves
0:57a bad taste in my mouth, right?
0:59And remember, more chins, more wins.
1:04As always, guys, before we get rocking
1:05here, make sure to hit that like button.
1:07Hit the subscribe button as well and
1:09hype the video if you are watching on
1:10mobile. It definitely goes a long way. I
1:12know it's just a YouTube-y thing to say,
1:14"Hey, like and subscribe." But it really
1:16does help us out and I mean that
1:17genuinely. So if you can find 2 seconds
1:19to hit the like button, hit the
1:20subscribe button, it'd be much
1:21appreciated. And let me know all of your
1:23favorite plays for this Sunday slate
1:25down in the comment section. I
1:26absolutely love reading those. All
1:28right, let's go ahead and jump into game
1:30number one here. Jacksonville taking on
1:32the Texans. Now this one is taking place
1:34overseas in Wembley Stadium. The Jags
1:36just played overseas last week, so they
1:38were able to stay there. You have to
1:39imagine that's somewhat of an advantage
1:42as they lay two and a half points here.
1:44They come into this one four and one.
1:46The Texans just one and four. They got
1:47their first win last week and I don't
1:49even know if we can fully give them
1:51their flowers because the win was over
1:53the Titans. I will say the defense
1:55finally looked pretty good. The offense
1:57looked like it was okay as well, but
1:58again, let's keep it in check here. It
2:00was the Titans. Now, there are a few
2:02different injuries and defensive pieces
2:06on both sides. Actually, offensively,
2:08David Montgomery is listed as doubtful
2:09here, too. But, defensively for the
2:11Texans, Azeez Al-Shaair, as well as
2:13Jalen Pitre, on the injury report.
2:15Al-Shaair's questionable. Jalen Pitre's
2:17listed as doubtful. When it comes to the
2:18Jacksonville side of the ball, offensive
2:20line, Pregnan, as well as Van Lanen,
2:22listed as questionable. And defensively,
2:24you could see the secondary may be a
2:26little bit banged up here, right? Jones,
2:28Murray, Brown, as well as Lewis, all
2:31with a Q next to their names. Now, to
2:34me, this line is really, really weird
2:35and kind of head-scratching, right? 2
2:37and 1/2 points for a team that is has
2:39shown that they are the better team so
2:41far to start this season. And they have
2:43the advantage of being able to stay
2:45overseas, not having to adjust. It gets
2:47a little weird, and I tried like hell to
2:49try and see if we could find some soft
2:51spots here in Jacksonville. If we could
2:53potentially get to the Texans. And I I
2:55really couldn't do it. So, I do lean
2:57Jacksonville minus the 2 and 1/2 points.
2:59I think that their quarterback play and
3:01offensive line play, assuming it holds
3:02up there, is a ton better. And then,
3:04defensively, based on what we've seen
3:06out of Texas that that the Texans so far
3:08this season, they haven't like truly,
3:11truly wowed. Now, granted, they've
3:13played some good offenses, right?
3:15They've played Cincinnati, they played
3:16Dallas, they played I mean,
3:18Indianapolis. They they did hold them to
3:2017 points. They played Buffalo. Like, a
3:22few of those names and teams are pretty
3:24damn good. But, Jacksonville's been
3:26proven to be a decent enough offense so
3:27far this season. You could say that New
3:29England defense is pretty good. Well, 3
3:30weeks ago, they put 35 points on their
3:32head. So, I just couldn't get to the
3:34Texans here. I feel like it's going to
3:35be very chalky and very square to look
3:37at the Jags because, "Oh, they're
3:38staying overseas." And And while I feel
3:41like that is something that
3:43has already been priced in and stuff
3:44like that, I just can't get it out of my
3:45head. So, give me the Jags minus the 2
3:47and 1/2 points. In terms of the total, I
3:49do think that this one could go up and
3:51over, assuming that Texans defense and
3:54offense, I guess assuming the offense
3:56look like they looked last week, and
3:57assuming the defense didn't doesn't look
3:59as good as they did against this Titan
4:01squad. I think the Jacksonville Jaguars
4:03offense is only going to get better and
4:04better as Lawrence gets more games under
4:05his belt. And realistically, 42 points,
4:08you could be looking at a 27-21 game,
4:11and you're like, "Whoa, that's sort over
4:12the number." Do I love it? No, I'll stop
4:15you there. But it is a side that I'll
4:16look at. If you want to back the Texans,
4:19I'm sure you're probably thinking,
4:20"Okay, let's go defense." And it
4:22correlates that way. But if you like the
4:23Jags, you have to see some
4:25vulnerabilities in the Texans defense,
4:27right? Now, here's a player prop that I
4:29do like, Jakobi Meyers 30-plus receiving
4:31yards. You can see he's been crushing
4:33this one. I mean, all but one game so
4:34far this year. And guess what? He was
4:36two yards shy of that one. And he only
4:39had the one target, I believe, in that
4:40game, right? So, if we even look at his
4:42last 10 games, and games which he gets
4:43at least two targets, the dude is
4:45crushing this. We also have these new
4:47easy filters over on Buckets to Bucks,
4:49right? Which kind of fits and finds
4:51defenses similar to who they're playing.
4:53If we look at similar pass defenses,
4:55he's been absolutely crushing it. What
4:56this does is looks at the man and zone
4:58EPA per dropback, as well as how often
5:00they play it, and how many passing yards
5:02per game they allow. Pretty simple,
5:04right? I like the spot here for him. And
5:06if we do look at the depth chart on the
5:07Houston side of things, right? You know
5:09they have Derek Stingley Jr., who I
5:11believe is, you know, at any given
5:13moment, the best defensive back in the
5:14league. Maybe not so so much this year,
5:16but you know, I do believe that.
5:18Jacksonville's Parker Washington was
5:20something that kind of jumped out to me
5:21originally, right here. But then I was
5:23like, "Derek Stingley Jr., if there's
5:25any sort of shading or shadowing over
5:28him with Stingley, I think Jakobi Meyers
5:30is going to find himself right
5:31underneath in open space and pleth with
5:35a plethora of targets. So, I like Jakobi
5:37Meyers over 29 and 1/2 receiving yards.
5:39If you want to get a little spicy and
5:40look for nearly plus 140, I don't hate
5:43his three and 1/2 receptions against
5:45similar pass defenses, you can see all
5:47of a sudden we start to see that green
5:48out. Albeit, it's not exactly
5:50tremendous. And the target share when we
5:52look at it as well, does kind of stay
5:53flat right around that four or five
5:55number. So, I don't want to sit here and
5:56act like it's incredible. I definitely
5:58prefer the yards. Another one to
6:00consider here would be Nico Collins. 70
6:02yards does not seem all that crazy. Now,
6:04you might look at this and be like,
6:05"Okay, he only had 56 yards last week."
6:08He barely played in the fourth quarter
6:09as they were blowing out Tennessee. So,
6:11realistically, he had this by like two
6:13plus quarters of action. And I do think
6:16that the fact that this is a
6:18Jacksonville team that's allowing the
6:19most receiving yards per game to the
6:21wide receiver position could be a good
6:23spot, especially when you're thinking
6:24that the Texans may be playing from
6:26behind. You could see this. Looking at
6:27his last five games versus similar pass
6:29defenses to this Jacksonville squad, all
6:32but one game he was able to go up and
6:34over. And he's averaging 74.2 yards per
6:37game, right? And if we do say, "Okay,
6:38well, on the season now, obviously, he's
6:40had some injuries and he's been dealing
6:41with stuff." Still averaging eight
6:42targets per game, right? If we do look
6:44at receivers that get at least eight
6:46targets per game, look at how many of
6:47them against Jacksonville have gone up
6:49and over that line, including Tee
6:51Higgins who had, I mean, 11 receptions.
6:53I don't think that's going to happen,
6:54but 157 against them, right? You saw
6:57Dante Myers have seven receptions, 82.
7:00Matt Collins, Jaylen Waddle. Like,
7:01there's a lot of guys this year that
7:03just stumbled into really, really high
7:05games. This is still a guy, I know he's
7:08been injured. This is still a guy that
7:10is one of the best receivers and
7:11playmakers in the entire league. And
7:13again, if you think Texas may be playing
7:15from behind
7:16Nico Collins over receiving yards could
7:18be something that makes its way onto the
7:19card. Moving on, we have the Falcons
7:21taking on the Bears. The biggest things
7:24to note would be the quarterback
7:25situation. Michael Penix Jr. who left
7:27last game should be good to go. No
7:29injury designation coming into week
7:30number six. And we've already seen all
7:33three of his backups play. Cooper Rush
7:35stunk out loud. Jack Stran in his
7:36limited play stunk out loud. And then
7:38Tua we saw last week, right? You might
7:40be thinking on Tua, he'll handle things,
7:41you know, he's played before, he's had
7:43some good seasons before. Wrong. Tua
7:44comes in and throws that big pick
7:46against the Ravens. But even bigger in
7:49terms of storyline, the Bears may be
7:50getting Caleb Williams back. He's
7:52questionable and you can even see here
7:53Ben Johnson, head coach, says that he's
7:55been listed and will be listed as a full
7:57participant at practice. So you have a
7:59Bears team getting healthier, you have a
8:01healthy Falcons team on the offensive
8:03side of the ball. Where do we go in this
8:05one? Well, I do still value this Bears
8:07team very strongly when Caleb Williams
8:10is playing. I think that his receiving
8:11core of obviously you have Rome Odunze,
8:14you have Luther Burden, you have
8:16um
8:17Colson Loveland who we're still kind of
8:18waiting for him to
8:19do something like he did last year, but
8:21you have him, Caleb Williams, you have
8:22them and Caleb Williams, and then you
8:24have a one-two punch of De'Andre Swift
8:26and Monangai who should be back this
8:28week as well. This offense still should
8:31scare any defense. And while this has
8:33been a good defense on the Falcons side
8:36of things, it's more so up front I would
8:39say, right? And this isn't a terrible,
8:41terrible, terrible Bears offensive line.
8:43Is it the best? No, but if Caleb's
8:45healthy with a decent enough offensive
8:47line, I think that they could be okay up
8:49front. I'm going to lean towards the
8:51Bears. It's definitely a tough one and I
8:53think that this number being a pick'em
8:55in a sense is pretty correct. I think a
8:57lot of people still sleep on the
8:58Falcons. When they have Michael Penix
9:00Jr., Drake London, obviously Kyle Pitts,
9:02but then Bijan freaking Robinson, man,
9:04like like this is a team that can get in
9:07a shootout with anybody.
9:09But
9:10if they're going to get in the shootout,
9:11I still think the Bears have more
9:12options in a sense. And the Bears still
9:14have a good defense. Give me the Bears.
9:16But one thing that I will say and I know
9:17I just said shootout and I might have
9:18been leading you down the wrong path
9:19here. Both of these defenses are sound
9:22enough and can play make enough for me
9:25to look at that 51 number and feel like
9:27it's a little bit too high. Like you
9:29could have a 27 to 23 game and you're
9:33like, "Whoa, that stayed under the
9:34number, right?" Like this 51, especially
9:36if you can 51 and a half, right? 27-24,
9:39all of a sudden starts to seem like a
9:40really, really high number and
9:42again, as the defenses get healthier, as
9:44we do see, you know, a little bit more
9:46of tape on these offenses, I do think
9:49that we can value some of that defensive
9:50side of the ball. I think this one
9:52finishes right around like the 48 to 49
9:53range. I'm going to lean towards the
9:55under. I don't know if that's psycho.
9:56I'm not going to sound the psycho alert
9:57alarm, but that's my story and I'm
9:59sticking to it. I know I said earlier
10:01they may be getting Monangai back.
10:03I guess I should check that a little bit
10:05because he the lines that we're seeing
10:08from De'Andre Swift almost indicate that
10:09we're not going to see Monangai back.
10:12But, if we do, I love this line. If we
10:15don't, I still don't mind De'Andre Swift
10:17and I'm a De'Andre Swift guy, right? I
10:19still don't mind his under 74 and a half
10:21yards. If we look at what running backs
10:22have done to this Atlanta team so far
10:24this season, Derrick Henry was the only
10:27guy, and this is dating back to, um, you
10:29know, I mean, I guess we can even say,
10:31if we want to say like five attempts,
10:32right? We can date back to last season.
10:34Derrick Henry's the only guy and Kyren
10:36Williams last season, but that has done
10:38much against them. Now, if we want to
10:40say, "Okay, well, they've played against
10:42Derrick Henry, Kamara, Chuba." Like,
10:44they haven't the Jaylen Warren, right?
10:45They haven't played the craziest of
10:47craziest of offenses. I get it. And you
10:50could say De'Andre Swift is a hell of a
10:51lot talented, more talented than some of
10:53the running backs they've seen, but I
10:54still do believe that at least on the
10:56ground defensively, this is a very good
10:58team and specifically against the
11:00outside zone, which, by the way, it's
11:02exactly what the Bears like to run. So,
11:05without Monangai, I love, excuse me,
11:07with Monangai, I love the under 74 and a
11:10half rushing yards for De'Andre Swift.
11:12With Monangai,
11:14I I do like it still. I think that, you
11:16know, you're going to be getting, um,
11:18you know, a a lot more workload and
11:20stuff like that with De'Andre Swift,
11:22especially given the fact that last week
11:23you might be looking at him only nine
11:25carries, but they were getting blown out
11:26in that one. If this one's even close,
11:27he probably does get the attempts. That
11:29could be a little worrisome, but I like
11:31it without Manongai. I love it if
11:34Manongai
11:36doesn't play or does play.
11:38I'm all over the place. You know what I
11:39mean.
11:40All right, next up we have the Browns
11:41taking on the Ravens and I would be
11:43remiss to not start with the injury
11:44report in this one. A ton of guys on
11:46both sides, which we'll see injured or
11:49at least carrying an injury designation
11:50coming into this one. Lamar Jackson, I
11:52believe, has not practiced. Let's see.
11:55Another absence Thursday from practice.
11:57So, we'll see if it's another Tyler
11:58Huntley game. But, Bateman you have a
12:00ton of offensive lineman, both starters
12:01and backups listed as questionable here
12:04as well. Defensively, it looks a little
12:06bit better, right? I mean, maybe some
12:07some interior defense not all that great
12:10with injuries, but then Marlon Humphrey
12:11listed as questionable. But,
12:12realistically, it's the offense for the
12:13Ravens that we have to keep an eye on.
12:15And you could say the same thing for the
12:17Browns. Actually, it's both sides
12:18offensively and we'll talk about it in a
12:19second. Defensively, that have a lot of
12:22moving parts and question marks,
12:23literally, when it comes to the injury
12:25report, including their playmakers.
12:27Quinton Jefferson, Denzel Boston, Casey
12:30Concepcion, right? We still see Teven
12:32Jenkins. I mean, he's questionable here,
12:33but the other Jenkins questionable.
12:35Another lineman questionable in Howard.
12:37But, check it out. Their defense, one of
12:39their strongest units, right? We see
12:40Schweitzer as well as Mason Graham on
12:43the injury report. Mason Graham listed
12:44as doubtful. Collins, like I said,
12:46Schweitzer and then Grant Delpit listed
12:48as questionable. A ton of moving parts
12:50in this one. I'm going to assume Lamar's
12:52not playing.
12:53I still do think that the Ravens are the
12:56better squad. And it's kind of like we
12:57looked at with De'Andre Swift, right? If
12:59Manongai does play, I like the I love
13:02the idea of De'Andre Swift under in
13:03rushing yards. Well, if Lamar does play,
13:05then I love the fact that we potentially
13:07got the Ravens at minus four and a half
13:09over a Browns team that they've been
13:11also kicking their ass for like three
13:13straight meetings dating back to last
13:15year, right? I love the fact that we'd
13:17get a four and a half number because I
13:18do think Lamar makes that big of a
13:19difference and as should you. So, I'm
13:21going to lean towards the Ravens. I
13:22think they're a better team, especially
13:23if we do have Derrick Henry good to go,
13:24which it looks like it. All of a sudden,
13:26maybe those offensive lineman pieces
13:28fall into place and they grit it out and
13:30play. Zay Flowers or Rashod Bateman
13:32playing as well. I think that this
13:33offense can still operate far better
13:36than what we see from the Browns
13:37offense. I think that they can operate a
13:38lot better even without Lamar Jackson.
13:41So, we'll keep an eye on the injury
13:42report. Again, I don't want to jump to
13:44conclusions or assume things in this
13:46game because there are a lot of injuries
13:48on both sides. But, that's my story and
13:50I'm sticking to it as of right now,
13:52okay? In terms of the total,
13:54I think the Ravens could put up points
13:55against this Browns team.
13:57Um I I I I think that the fact that this
13:58Browns team, you know, let up 34 week
14:00one to Jacksonville, 24 to Pittsburgh.
14:02They played Tampa Bay. I mean, Carolina
14:04they actually looked pretty good. Tampa
14:05Bay and then the Jets, they allowed 19
14:07and 17 to those bad offenses. I wouldn't
14:09be surprised if the Ravens are the uh
14:11you know, the the most I guess fluid
14:13offense and just consistent offense that
14:15they've seen. Again, no Lamar Jackson
14:17certainly a possibility, but right now I
14:19lean in the direction of the over. I
14:21think the Ravens maybe their team total
14:23over could be like them in the fat a
14:25little bit and not having to worry about
14:26what happens on the orange brown side of
14:29the ball. Um but ultimately that's
14:30probably what I look at. Right now,
14:31Ravens, I think it's Oh yeah, over 23
14:33and 1/2 is their team total for plus
14:35money. They've absolutely been crushing
14:36this dating I mean, they have a ton of
14:37games against the Browns, but even still
14:39dating way, way back, they've been
14:41looking pretty good
14:42uh ultimately. So, I like their team
14:44total over. That's probably something to
14:45consider if you can get that plus
14:47number.
14:48How can I not consider Derrick Henry to
14:50score a touchdown? I mean, look at what
14:51he's doing this season. Three, one, two,
14:53one, one, right? He's going up against
14:55this Browns team in which he has four
14:57touchdowns over his last four games
14:58against them. This is just a spot in
15:00which I do think that he could punch one
15:02in. Now, what I will say and I want to
15:03give a little credit where it's due to
15:04this Browns team, right? Let's say that
15:06we're going to get a minimum of five
15:07attempts out of these. They have not
15:09allowed a touchdown other than to
15:10Braelon Allen a week ago to any of the
15:13running backs they've seen. Just 0.2
15:15touchdowns allowed to running backs per
15:16game so far this season. Last year, they
15:18were middle of the pack, right? But
15:19again, if we don't have Lamar Jackson,
15:21it gets pretty damn simple what to do at
15:24the goal line, right? And think about
15:26it. They've been running a ton of
15:27wildcat on the goal line as well.
15:28Derrick Henry should have a lot of
15:30looks. I like him to score a touchdown.
15:31Also, in terms of his yards, right? If
15:33we want to look at this, his rushing
15:34yards is all the way up there at 89 and
15:36a half. Against similar rush defenses,
15:37he's actually had some serious success
15:39using the EV filters over on Buckets to
15:41Bucks. But, this is what I like. The
15:43explosive run rate DVOA on the outside
15:45zone really does check out. So, if even
15:47if you wanted to pivot towards, "Okay,
15:48what if he rattles one off?" right?
15:50Against similar rush defenses, he's had
15:52some really long rushes here. And if we
15:54strip these filters and just say
15:55head-to-head, three of the four games,
15:58he's had a 39-plus yard rush against
16:00this Brown's squad. Looking at some of
16:02the D guys that have rushed against him,
16:04we know that they're pretty stout
16:05against running backs in their
16:06touchdowns, right? Well, check it out.
16:08Five attempts. We saw Chase Brown have a
16:1019-yard run. Bucky Irving, we saw Jaylen
16:12Warren, we cashed that one, right?
16:14Braelon Allen had a 22-yarder. So, maybe
16:16it's not necessarily a full game of
16:19beating them down, but one play where
16:20Derrick Henry can break out.
16:22And guys, by the way, the tool you were
16:24seeing me use for the player props, the
16:25team total, the game picks, the total,
16:27like that is buckets to bucks.com. Make
16:29sure to go ahead and check it out.
16:31buckets.com. It is our very own NFL
16:34research tool, and we're building this
16:35thing bigger and better than ever right
16:38now, and yet it's still to the consumer
16:40just 50 cents a day. Actually,
16:42technically less than 50 cents per day.
16:44You can't beat it. Check it out. That'll
16:46be buckets.com. You're going to see me
16:48use it a ton more throughout today's
16:49show.
16:50All right, we have the Colts taking on
16:52the Titans. This one actually is a
16:54little bit tougher for me than I think
16:55you might jump to. Um, we see the Colts
16:59two and three so far to start the
17:00season. The Titans
17:02obviously, you know, one of if not the
17:04worst team in the entire league.
17:06But, I don't know if the Colts deserve
17:07minus seven when it comes to this line.
17:10I could see them winning by, and this
17:12seems really nitpicky, but five, six,
17:15maybe seven points, but I don't know how
17:18much I truly do trust the consistency of
17:20the offense. Like this is a team that
17:22has scored in the 20s, in the 30s, in
17:24the teens, back to the 20s, like kind of
17:26all over the place. The one thing that I
17:28will say is I don't see any harm in
17:31potentially backing Jonathan Taylor
17:33almost any way, shape, or form. I kind
17:35of like the receptions, I'm not going to
17:36lie. This is him against similar pass
17:38defenses, right? And then similar rush
17:39defenses, he's crushed this line as
17:41well, just using the easy filters, which
17:43again, if you click this, what it does
17:44is it's going to analyze how the Colts
17:46offense works in terms of their run
17:48schemes and how the defense is, and then
17:50it kind of finds similar opponents,
17:51right? But how can you not look at what
17:53we just talked about with Derrick Henry,
17:55right? Not look at him in some sort of a
17:56parlay piece to score a touchdown, even
17:58for him to go out there and score two. I
18:00mean, this dude has been great. Similar
18:01rush defenses dating back to last year,
18:03you could see he has three, three,
18:05three, and two. Four of his last eight
18:08games here, he's had multiple touchdowns
18:10when we do apply these filters.
18:12Tennessee is allowing plenty of damage
18:15and yards and everything to opposing
18:16running backs, obviously. Now, Jonathan
18:19Taylor, one of the best in the game,
18:20you're obviously looking at 89 and a
18:21half, that's a massive massive number,
18:23but I think I could get behind his rush
18:25attempts, I could get behind his
18:26receptions, I could get behind his
18:28touchdown. I think there's a lot that
18:29Jonathan could Taylor Jonathan can
18:31Taylor Jonathan Taylor can do in this
18:34game. So that might be where I focus my
18:36efforts if we do get to anything here.
18:39I kind of want to stay away from that
18:40spread. I'll I'm going to say this cuz I
18:42don't think that I can I should mention
18:43this and make this abundantly clear. I
18:45don't think that I can get to Tennessee
18:47plus seven. Don't get me wrong, okay?
18:48I'm just saying I don't know if I feel
18:49comfortable with the Colts minus seven.
18:51So probably tells you a little bit of
18:52something about the line, at least in
18:54this dumb brain. But what I could say is
18:56Colts at home
18:58against a bad bad team, maybe this is a
19:00decent enough money line parlay piece in
19:03this one, right?
19:05We'll see. Terms of a total, I think
19:07this one could be low scoring. Uh it's
19:09twofold.
19:10As much as I don't think the Titans
19:12defense is even all that great, that
19:13probably is their best unit in a sense,
19:16even though they do have some young
19:17playmakers, stuff like that, but they
19:19just can't score. So, maybe they don't
19:21even score anything, but they hold the
19:23Colts to like 30 points. Think about it,
19:25this could be 30 to 13, and it stays
19:28under 40 40 44 and a half. So, it's a
19:31really really tough one for me. Weird
19:33line. I don't fully trust Indian
19:35Indianapolis. I like Jonathan Taylor.
19:38That under 44 and a half kind of sticks
19:39out as well. We'll see if we have the
19:41cojones to drop them on the table and
19:43roll with anything in this one. All
19:45right, we have the Patriots hosting the
19:47Jets. Divisional game here. One thing
19:50that I want to note is that this is a
19:52pretty heavily looked at Patriots team
19:55in terms of what we're seeing from these
19:56splits. Money line-wise, as well as the
19:59number at seven. Now, it's obviously a
20:00key number at seven, but I do think that
20:03it's a little interesting to note that
20:04it seems like everyone and their
20:05grandma's ex-boyfriend from high school
20:07on the Patriots here. And maybe it makes
20:09a little bit of sense because the Jets
20:10are really banged up, right? You have a
20:11Donai Mitchell doubtful, you also have
20:13Breece Hall doubtful. You have a left
20:16guard here in Parnham doubtful. The
20:18defense not exactly crazy banged up, but
20:20not fully healthy. But, I mean, looking
20:23at the Patriots, you have some very
20:25similar, right? Trey on Henderson
20:26questionable here, he may not go. Will
20:28Campbell, Morgan Moses both listed as
20:30questionable as well. On the defensive
20:32side of the ball, I mean, jeez Louise,
20:34they got more Qs than a phone book or
20:37something. Christian Gonzalez, Marcus
20:38Jones, Byard Woodson. Like, look at this
20:40secondary.
20:42So, I do think that this could be a
20:43weird enough game. I kind of disagree
20:46with one that we pulled that from Circa
20:48with the splits that we're seeing at
20:49least at the time of recording, right? I
20:51don't necessarily think that this should
20:53be an all in on the Patriots. Now, if
20:56it's seven, six and a half, I get it. I
20:58get it, but you can get some seven and a
21:00halves out there. And I say this as a
21:01Patriots fan, right? There's seven and a
21:03halves out there that might make me
21:05think about the Jets in some sort of a
21:07grind it out gross fashion game. So,
21:10I'll sound the cycle alert alarm. I get
21:12it. I think it's worthy of the cycle
21:13alert alarm. Jets plus seven and a half
21:16if it's out there. I will say the
21:18Patriots minus six and a half if you get
21:19that, right? That's obviously a very,
21:20very key number, but as much as the Jets
21:23are banged up, so are the Patriots and
21:26word around New England right now, and I
21:27live there, right? Word around New
21:28England is the Patriots are back.
21:31Wouldn't it be so typical of this
21:33divisional match up where it's like the
21:34Patriots are back and all of a sudden
21:35like they struggle against the Jets. I'm
21:37not telling you the Jets win this game.
21:38I actually don't think they do win the
21:39game. Seven and a half just seems like
21:41too big of a number. Total wise,
21:43if the Jets win this one, the defense
21:45has to show up. We already saw a lot of
21:46their play makers, Mitchell, Breece Hall
21:48specifically, right? Are probably not
21:50playing. So, they have to keep this
21:52Patriots offense in check, and we didn't
21:55really even touch on the Patriots
21:56offense
21:57um all that much cuz the defense is so
21:58banged up, but A.J. Brown off IR, I
22:01believe, as of this week, but
22:04working towards getting him to a better
22:05place. So, he's not playing. Mack
22:06Hollins on IR, right? We mentioned Trea
22:09Sermon Henderson. A lot of him, and he's
22:11going to miss some time. A lot of guys
22:13here are questionable, and so now it's
22:15going to be Drake Maye, Romeo Doubs,
22:17which I don't hate, DeMario Douglas,
22:19Ramondre. Like, these guys are really
22:21good, but they're not A.J. Brown. I
22:22don't think that they're Trey Sermon.
22:24Like, Patriots offense isn't If Drake
22:26Maye has to stand on his head again,
22:27that's the only way they get to the over
22:28in my book. Now, we're still waiting on
22:30lines here, but I do kind of like the
22:32idea of DeMario Douglas, uh Pop Douglas.
22:34I like his catches. I like him, weirdly
22:36enough, to score a touchdown. He had two
22:38last week. Maybe things start to get
22:40going, but again, we're going to have to
22:41rely on Doubs, Douglas to be able to go
22:44out there and and do his thing. Now, um
22:47another one, Hunter Henry could
22:48definitely be someone to monitor, right?
22:50He's had low lines all year long with
22:52his receptions and everything like that.
22:53And last week and the week before, he's
22:55combined for nine targets.
22:58That seems like it could be a good look,
22:59right? So, if we say he's going to get
23:01an average of four targets, I mean a
23:03minimum of four targets, you start to
23:04see plenty more of him. If he gets five
23:07targets, right? Let's bump this up one.
23:09Five targets, you see more and more
23:10catches. I think you'll get plus money
23:12here potentially. I mean, obviously with
23:13the injuries, maybe not, but at three
23:15and a half. So, we'll see as the week
23:16progresses, but those pass catchers for
23:17the Patriots, it's tough because it's
23:19almost like too much tankering, right?
23:20If you guys watch the league, you know
23:22what I mean. It's like, who do we like?
23:24Who do we play? Like, all three of those
23:26guys I think could have a role here, but
23:28Hunter Henry could be back to his safety
23:29play blanket sort of form like we saw
23:32him a year ago.
23:33All right, guys. If you're looking for
23:34another way to have some action or have
23:35some entertainment on these games, look
23:37no further than Parlay Play. Right now,
23:39you're going to get your first deposit
23:41doubled. You put in 20, you'll have 40.
23:43You put in 50, you'll have 100. You put
23:44in 100, you'll have 200, right? But,
23:47you're also going to get a free $5 game
23:50just for signing up. You don't even need
23:52to deposit. Really cool how they
23:54structure things. Each leg you add to
23:56your slip boost the pay out by 5%. All
23:59the way up to like 35% extra. It's
24:01crazy. They have a ton of slash lines,
24:03promos, and stuff like that. So, if
24:05you've not tried it out yet, make sure
24:06to go ahead and do so. Make sure to use
24:08code GuyBoston when signing up today.
24:10That is g u y b o s t o n. Again, you
24:13just sign up, you're going to get a $5
24:15entry absolutely free. No questions
24:16asked. You see that $5 bill on the
24:18sidewalk, snag it before someone else
24:20does. Go ahead and check it out. $5
24:22entry absolutely free. No sign up. And
24:24then, if you do deposit, they're going
24:25to double that deposit. No-brainer.
24:27Parlay Play, link will be down below in
24:28the description as well as the pinned
24:29comment.
24:30A Giants taking on the Saints. Now, this
24:32is a tough one, and I'm still like very
24:36much on the Saints train. I think that
24:37Shucks better than he's looked. I think
24:40that this team is better than they've
24:42looked. I think the defense is better
24:44than it's played, but it's hard to make
24:46that argument right now, right? This New
24:47Orleans defense looks really, really
24:49bad, but they have played some good
24:52teams. You know what I mean? Like, um
24:54they've gone up against Detroit,
24:55Baltimore, Raiders, Atlanta, Minnesota.
24:57Like, this has been a really rough go in
25:00terms of the schedule for this Saints
25:03squad. And keep in mind
25:04Atlanta was that game where Atlanta
25:06looked really, really good. You know,
25:07Michael Penix Jr. is good to go. Bijan,
25:09Brian Robinson, everyone looked really
25:10good. So it's like they've had a rough
25:12go.
25:13Now they play the Giants who kind of
25:14surprisingly are 3-1 and
25:16after last week one.
25:18I will say on the Saints side of things
25:20there are some injuries, right? You have
25:21you have um
25:23Olave questionable, you have Kamara's
25:25questionable so it could come down to
25:26Kendre Miller.
25:28Shepard, Broughton, you have Ellis
25:30listed as questionable on the defensive
25:31side of the ball. But I mean this is
25:33still a somewhat banged up Giants team
25:35too. So let's not act like they're just
25:37fully, fully healthy. We still should
25:39see James at the helm. Mooney's
25:41questionable. Andrew Thomas left tackle
25:43is questionable. Lumenor's questionable
25:44at the right tackle side of things.
25:46Defensively, right? They have a ton of
25:48injuries including Brian Burns on the
25:49IR. You have Abdul Carter listed as
25:51questionable. Him and and a bunch of
25:52other guys. So I do think that the
25:54injuries
25:55somewhat even the playing field and I
25:57don't think that this is a a Giants
26:00offense that can compete with the Saints
26:02if they do even remotely fire on all
26:04cylinders. So I think I like the idea of
26:07the Saints in this one. I kind of wanted
26:09some validation and I believe I got it
26:11out of Juice Reel which guys Juice Reel
26:13this sharp mush tool is a game changer
26:16and it's absolutely free. Link down
26:17below for Juice Reel in the description
26:19as well as the pin comment. But this
26:20sharp mush tool at least told me that
26:22I'm not that crazy for liking the
26:24Saints, right? Cuz I did start to think
26:25that the way the Saints defense has
26:27looked, the way they've lost in prime
26:28time, now being on the road I was like,
26:30"Oh boy. Oh boy, is this Giants spot?"
26:32And while you could see 62% of the worst
26:35bettors on the app are on the Saints,
26:3771% of the best users, the top 20% top
26:41fifth of those users, and this is fully
26:43tracked and verified plays, right? On
26:45the app like the Saints. And that just
26:47makes me feel a little bit better.
26:48That's kind of what I was looking for.
26:49More better users
26:51than worst users on the Saints. So, at
26:53least we have that going for us in terms
26:55of where our mindset is.
26:56And I don't really think the Saints do
26:58well or win a game without Taysom Hill
27:00playing well. And 232 and 1/2 seems like
27:04it could be doable. If we do look at
27:05similar rush defense, similar pass
27:07defense, some numbers look pretty good,
27:09right? Um but overall, I just think that
27:11this is going to be kind of like a
27:12situation where the ball's in his hands.
27:14Now, with Chris Olave potentially
27:16missing, do we have much data without
27:18Chris Olave here? We throw this in
27:20there. Um he only has the one game at
27:22least that we have sample size here. He
27:24still threw for 259, which is obviously
27:26very, very good. I will say not like
27:29quarterbacks have been absolutely
27:30torching this Giants defense, but again,
27:32he should have the attempts, right? I
27:34mean, he's already averaging 37 attempts
27:36per game here. Um in this spot, I would
27:38think he gets at least 35. When he has
27:40that, dating back to last year, he's
27:41crushing it. Dating back in this year,
27:42three games which he has 35 attempts,
27:44he's crushing it as well. So, again, I
27:46like the Saints. Can we get a little bit
27:47granular? Can we get a better number and
27:49say if we do want to back the Saints,
27:52how are they going to do it, right?
27:53Beating around the bush, trimming the
27:54fat, getting to a point of how are they
27:56going to do what we already think they
27:57can do?
27:58And I think that's through Taysom Hill.
28:00Shouldn't be all that crazy, right?
28:01Also, passing touchdowns uh for plus
28:03108, that could be something to
28:04consider. I believe we have clear skies.
28:07Going to be a little nippy, like mid-50s
28:09uh at MetLife there, but not too windy,
28:11no precipitation.
28:13Sunny skies. Taysom Hill could be a look
28:15for passing touchdowns as well. But,
28:17this is a team that obviously, you know,
28:19they get near the goal line and stuff
28:20like that. They don't mess around all
28:21that much. I think I prefer his passing
28:24yards or even completions at 22 and 1/2.
28:26Keep an eye on the final plays. Think
28:28there's something that we can do here.
28:30Now, obviously, I'm like Saints rah-rah,
28:31here we go for whatever reason. Saints
28:33are going marching.
28:35I look at the Saints team total over
28:37here as well. All the games so far this
28:39year, but last week, they're able to go
28:42out there and do the damn thing, right?
28:44Um
28:45So, I like that. And another thing to
28:47note right here, you can see they like
28:48to pass, I excuse me, run up the middle.
28:50You're seeing a lot of yards per game up
28:52the middle, yards per carry, all that.
28:53So, you can attack this Giants team via
28:55that. Obviously, their running backs are
28:57banged up, I get it. But, at the same
28:58time, you can spam the outsides and get
29:01some yards per game. Does Olave really
29:03mess this up? Maybe, but who's to say
29:06for plus money again, you can't go out
29:07there and score 24 points. They've been
29:09absolutely crushing it. Even dating back
29:10to last year, they did that really well.
29:13Saints, Saints, Saints. I just got to
29:15get the confidence behind it in this
29:16pick'em.
29:17All right, next up, Eagles taking on the
29:19Panthers and we'll just run through
29:21really quickly cuz the Eagles do have a
29:23ton to monitor injury-wise. So, if you
29:26missed it, Jalen Hurts was just ruled
29:28out. Uh blood clot, I believe. Uh which
29:31is scary. It's in his calf. I don't know
29:34how serious or anything like that, but
29:36blood clot just sounds kind of scary,
29:37right? Saquon Barkley's questionable.
29:39Devonta Smith is questionable. Hollywood
29:41Brown questionable. Dontavian Wicks is
29:42questionable. Offensive line, Kendal
29:45Steen questionable, as well. On the
29:46defensive side of the ball, Granard and
29:49uh Epps also questionable. Now,
29:51not too much to note for the Panthers
29:53injury-wise. Jaelan Phillips is
29:54questionable for them.
29:56I will say, but at three and a half in
29:59in
30:00another psycho alert alarm. I loved the
30:02guy last week commenting being like,
30:03"You sounded the psycho alert alarm
30:04makes me feel like less of a psycho on
30:06some of my plays." And I was like, "Hey,
30:07whatever whatever floats your boat."
30:08But, I do still think the Eagles could
30:10be something to consider here. Now,
30:12Tanner Key, like I'm not going to try
30:13and argue that that guy is as good as
30:15Jalen Hurts or he's as good as even
30:17Bryce Young, but I think Saquon Barkley,
30:20Devonta Smith, if Wicks plays, like if
30:23we do have a healthy offense outside of
30:25Hurts, who let's be real, it's not like
30:27Hurts is like an incredible thrower of
30:28the ball to begin with. I think we could
30:30have a chance for the Eagles to keep
30:32this game close because we've seen this
30:33Panthers defense certainly struggle, you
30:36know, in many games, right? Like in
30:39terms of their game so far, they've
30:40allowed uh where is it? They've allowed
30:4259. Three, okay, that was to Atlanta.
30:44Remember before Atlanta got Michael
30:46Penix Jr. back. 21 and 26. Now,
30:50also, another thing to note, right?
30:52Eagles coming back from London.
30:55Panthers coming off of a bye. That's why
30:56it's probably worthy of the cycle alert
30:58alarm, but I think with Saquon against a
31:00rushing defense that has really had some
31:02struggles here, they may be able to
31:03control it. Do I have, and we already
31:05talked about you use this phrase earlier
31:07in the video. Do I have the cojones to
31:08roll with it myself? I I'll be honest
31:10and look right in your face. I'm not
31:12sure because you miss your quarterback.
31:14It's not just the arm or the talent.
31:16It's like the total game management and
31:18everything like that, right? And
31:19especially when I'm like, "Oh, well,
31:20they still have they Saquon may be
31:22coming back." And by the way, me liking
31:23the Eagles is totally dependent on
31:25Saquon and DeVonta Smith playing.
31:27But if Saquon's coming back, it's like,
31:28"Well, now the Panthers know they're
31:29probably going to run a ton, right?"
31:30Makes it a little bit tough. So, I'm
31:32going to lean Eagles. I get it's kind of
31:33crazy, but I also do think that they
31:35have a decent enough defense. Maybe they
31:37grind this one out. Give me the Eagles
31:38and the under. It's a little scary to
31:40think about that, but that's my, uh,
31:42that's what it's what I'm looking at
31:43here. I also don't mind backing Saquon,
31:45uh, player prop-wise, if he does get the
31:47go. This is, again, a really poor run
31:50defense. Saquon is yet to have sort of a
31:52breakout game, and I'm not going to sit
31:53here and act like, "Coming off of a
31:55hammy, it's like, oh, we're good to go,
31:57right?" But if he plays, I expect him to
31:59be close to 100%. Maybe he does have a
32:00decent enough game. But again, if he
32:02doesn't play, Will Shipley's already
32:04probably not playing. Bigsby's already,
32:07um, on the IR, right? Like this is a
32:09really really tough spot for a team
32:11that's already very banged up. So,
32:13everything I could be saying could go to
32:14caput because of these injuries.
32:17Tampa Bay hosting the Steelers. Tampa
32:19Bay gets their first win of the season
32:22last week in primetime a week ago, uh,
32:24from Thursday.
32:26They went 24 to 16. Jaylen Daniels at
32:30the helm. 19 to 25, 189 yards passing.
32:33Bucky Irving with 21 carries for a
32:35tuddy, a 72-yard long run, 165 yards on
32:39the ground. So, they got things going.
32:41This Steelers defense, I think is better
32:44than kind of where they rank just middle
32:45of the pack wise and whatnot, but
32:47they're not exactly tremendous against
32:49the pass. I wouldn't say that. Maybe the
32:51pass rush you could argue, but I do
32:53think that there's a chance that we see
32:54Bucky Irving be tamed a little bit um
32:58in this one. I don't know if two like I
33:01think this over I think this two and a
33:02half maybe a little bit of an
33:03overreaction perhaps. Like people seem
33:06to I don't want to say rag on the
33:07Steelers, but don't give them much
33:08credit. And this is still a three and
33:10two team. They beat Indianapolis. They
33:12beat Cincinnati.
33:14Atlanta, a different Atlanta than we're
33:15seeing now. They played Cleveland close.
33:17The only game that they look like they
33:18stunk in was that New England game.
33:21Now, in terms of the injuries on the
33:23Steelers side of things, they are fairly
33:25healthy, right? Defensively, you can see
33:27Keanu um Benton, Jameel Dean, and Jalen
33:30Ramsey all questionable. If these guys
33:31play, that's obviously a massive
33:32upgrade, but you still have a backup
33:34quarterback on the Bucks side. And I I I
33:36will again say like if Bucky Irving
33:38can't dominate like he did last week, I
33:42struggle to think that this Steelers
33:43team doesn't win this game. And you can
33:45get the Steelers right now at a decent
33:46enough price tag. Uh on the ML, you're
33:49getting them at like minus 135. Minus
33:51127. So, am I underthinking this?
33:54Perhaps. I mean, the Steelers what I did
33:55I did give them credit for being three
33:56and two. They're yet to win two games in
33:58a row. And they just won last week, so
34:01maybe that's something to consider. But
34:02to me, I just can't necessarily see them
34:04not running, especially if we want to
34:06look at it like this, right? So, they
34:08like to run the outside zone. They like
34:10to run the man duo. In terms of them
34:11running that, the man duo being their
34:13biggest one and their best one, right?
34:14That is what the the Bucks struggle in
34:16offensively, right? A ton of explosive
34:18runs in the outside zone. A ton of
34:20consistent and good runs in the man duo.
34:23So, I even sit here and I'm like, "Okay,
34:24well, we might see, you know, a a a team
34:27in which they can control the ground
34:29game. Aaron Rodgers can look okay. DK's
34:31getting involved." Starting to look a
34:32little bit like I think that this is a
34:34better Steelers team than I'd like to
34:35give them credit for as well as a lot of
34:37other people. Now, another thing that
34:38I'll note here, you could see it right
34:39here. Tampa Bay does not pressure. So,
34:42if we do say and now they do blitz, we
34:44know that they're going to blitz, they
34:45always blitz, but they haven't been
34:46getting to the quarterback, hurrying, QB
34:48hits, sacking, pressure. If you put
34:49Aaron Rodgers in a clean pocket, things
34:50look pretty good.
34:52And you could see that right here. Aaron
34:54Rodgers clean pocket, right? Against the
34:56blitz, not exactly the best, against
34:57pressure, not exactly the best best.
34:59He's going to see blitz clean pocket he
35:01may actually be pretty damn good. So,
35:03yeah, I'm going to lean in the direction
35:05of the Steelers here. If we look at them
35:08at the line of scrimmage, they should
35:09get some serious push up front out of
35:11that outside zone. A player prop that's
35:13now kind of jumping out to me, we'll
35:14talk about the total in a second,
35:16is something that we cashed in that
35:18Thursday night football matchup a a
35:20little while back. It's going to be
35:22Jaylen Warren. I like his longest rush
35:2313 and a half. I really do. Again, if we
35:26look at this from a perspective of the
35:28man duo, we could see some explosive
35:31runs out of that, right? And if we
35:33already looked at it from the line of
35:34scrimmage perspective, we could see some
35:35good runs out of that. Now, what I will
35:37say is you're going to see, I guess,
35:40yeah, no, that's not too too bad in
35:41terms of what we're seeing Where's it
35:44run? I want to see their rushing
35:45direction left and right. Yeah, they're
35:47running left plenty. Not exactly the
35:49best there, but again, I think the
35:51explosive run rate is what I'm looking
35:52at overall. If we want to say, okay,
35:54well, 14.3, right? Explosive run rate
35:57out of the man duo, let's put it to 10
35:58plus. He's gone pretty damn close. Yeah,
36:01I kind of I kind of like the idea of his
36:03over 13 and a half explosive run,
36:05getting that longest rush. That's
36:07something to consider there. In terms of
36:08a total,
36:10I've gone back and forth in this one. I
36:12clearly don't have as much hope in this
36:13Bucks team as I think the Bucks do,
36:15which, oh gee, I wonder who knows
36:17better, right?
36:18But I think that the Steelers can go up
36:19there and score 20 points. And right
36:21now, you're getting minus 140 for 19 and
36:24a half.
36:25That's definitely something that's kind
36:26of at the forefront of my mind. So, I
36:28like the Steelers. I like Jaylen Warren.
36:30I like his longest rush. I also do like
36:32the Steelers team total over 19 and a
36:34half. Keep an eye on the final plays. I
36:36think that there is certainly
36:38uh some action that we can get down in
36:39this one. We're just going to have to
36:40figure out what. Reminder guys, if you
36:42are enjoying the video, make sure to hit
36:43that like button. Hit the subscribe
36:45button as well. Comment player props if
36:48you made it this far in the video. That
36:49would mean a lot. We've been yapping for
36:51a damn minute here, but you asked for it
36:53and I wanted to answer more player
36:54props. The video's going to ultimately
36:56be a little bit longer just because
36:57obviously there's more content to get
36:59through, but I'm down. I could sit here
37:01all day and record. You know, what I
37:03mean? I love this stuff. Hopefully you
37:04guys do too. So, hit the like button,
37:06subscribe, and comment player props if
37:08you made it this far into the video.
37:10All right, we have our first truly
37:11massive spread, or at least big spread,
37:13of the video here. We have the Rams
37:15hosting the Cardinals. Total's at 51 and
37:18a half as well. Uh I will say it looks
37:21like we're still going to be missing
37:23Myles Garrett. Uh head coach Sean McVay
37:25told reporters Tuesday that Garrett will
37:27not return to practice this week, and he
37:29won't play against the Cardinals. Aaron
37:30Donald's good to go. We'll see if Nate
37:31Landman gets to go offensively. Kobe
37:34Parkinson still injured. Arizona,
37:36Jeremiah Love questionable, right? But
37:38other than that, it's nothing too
37:40incredible injury-wise. I get why the
37:42Rams are so heavily favored, and it it
37:45makes sense to me, right? I'm not going
37:46to try and sit here and out-overthink it
37:48or outsmart myself. The Rams are the
37:51better team, and I'm sure they're a
37:53little bit fired up coming off of that
37:55loss against Buffalo, right? Uh in
37:57primetime. So, it makes sense to me why
37:59they are that favored. I don't think
38:00that I get there. Maybe a first half
38:02look, or even some sort of a teaser
38:04where we look at the Rams like minus
38:06four and a half, something like that,
38:08and bump that total way up. I say bump
38:11that total way up because I do sit here
38:12and I'm like, "Okay,
38:14I believe in this Rams defense long
38:15term. I do. I think they're going to get
38:16healthier, they're going to get better
38:17coached, they're going to be better and
38:18better and better. And I think that Look
38:20at
38:20Arizona team is going to get worse and
38:22worse and worse and worse offensively if
38:25the if they can't go out there and they
38:26don't go out there and score a bunch of
38:28points, it's going to be hard for the
38:30Rams one-sidedly,
38:32if that's a word, to get to an over of
38:34like 57 and a half scoring 50 like
38:37that's kind of what I'm thinking. So,
38:38Rams maybe minus maybe there's some sort
38:41of an SGP or just straight up teaser
38:43that we can look at. Rams minus like
38:45three and then that total bumped up to
38:47like 57 and a half, something like that.
38:49Again, I'm looking at this because I
38:50don't think I don't buy into the
38:51Cardinals whatsoever. And I really do
38:54think that 51 and a half, you're asking
38:56a lot of this Rams offense. Can they do
38:58it?
38:59They can do it, right? Like I wouldn't
39:00be surprised if the Rams put up 40, but
39:03still that means that the Cardinals got
39:04to go out there and score like 20. I
39:05don't know if that's the case. So, give
39:07me the Rams. I like that number being
39:09massaged down a little bit. Who
39:10wouldn't, right? Shout out to Deshaun
39:12Watson. And I do like moving that number
39:14a little bit more to take an under. So,
39:16we're looking at like a far higher total
39:18overall. Give me the Rams and the under,
39:21but in some sort of a teaser or an SGP.
39:24If this game goes how I'm even remotely
39:26thinking it's going to go, Jacoby
39:27Brissett over 22 and a half completions
39:29could be something to consider here.
39:30Now, last time he played the Rams, which
39:32was last year, he played them twice,
39:33right? 22 and 25 completions. Okay, he's
39:36hitting three of his five games so far
39:38this season. If we look at his last 10,
39:39looking at similar past defenses, you're
39:41going to see 26 completions. I think
39:43he's going to have to throw the ball a
39:44lot. They should be down by let's say if
39:45they're losing by, you know, maximum
39:48they're down by seven points. 24
39:51completions there. If it's a 12-point
39:52game like they're saying, he's averaging
39:5423. Both of which up and over that 22
39:56and a half number. So, I do like the
39:58spot here. I will say defense uh teams
40:00really haven't been completing much
40:02against
40:03uh this this Rams team. Brock Purdy was
40:05the only quarterback to do it in week
40:06number one, but
40:08overall, I think that this could be a
40:09spot where you say, "Okay, well rookie
40:10running back Love, he's even banged up.
40:12He may not get the go, right?" He's
40:14questionable in this one. Like we may
40:15have to see Jacoby Brissett throw a ton.
40:18And uh in this game against Detroit a
40:20week ago, you could see right here
40:22Jeremiah Love carried the ball only 12
40:23times. Jacoby Brissett threw the ball 47
40:26times at 29 completions.
40:28Don't necessarily hate that player prop
40:29look.
40:30Now we have the Chiefs taking on the
40:32Chargers and the undefeated team against
40:34an unwind winless team in the Chargers.
40:38They're 0 and 5. Chiefs come to this one
40:400 and 4 or excuse me 4 and 0 off the bye
40:42week there. In terms of any injuries in
40:45this one, I mean there's plenty to look
40:46at on the Chargers side of things.
40:48Offensive line is already banged up and
40:50Joe Alt listed as questionable. Al Woods
40:52Sekou listed as questionable. Lad
40:54McConkey, Quinton Johnston, Trey Harris,
40:56wide receiver 1 2 and 3 all on the
40:58injury report as well. And then the
41:00defense, I mean pretty much everybody is
41:03banged up here. You can see that.
41:05And when I say banged up, they may be
41:06playing they're questionable. Some
41:08limited practice, some non-participants,
41:10all that good stuff. When it comes to
41:12the Chiefs side of things, Rashee Rice
41:13questionable, Simmons questionable as
41:15well on the offensive side. Getting him
41:16or him playing would be obviously
41:18massive. And then pretty good when it
41:20comes to the defensive side of the ball,
41:21L'Jarius Sneed being the only one to
41:23monitor. The Chiefs are probably a good
41:25money line look this week. I don't know
41:27if I like them minus 8 and 1/2. And I
41:28say this because and this is not the way
41:31we should be analyzing things or betting
41:33or like picking or predicting or
41:34anything, right? But at some point the
41:36Chargers going to win a game. And it's
41:38probably going to come at the most
41:40unexpected time or something like that.
41:43Again, is that data-driven? No, no, no,
41:45no, no. And do I think it's going to be
41:46this week? No, no, no, no, no. In fact,
41:48this Chargers team has lost seven
41:49straight dating actually eight straight
41:51dating back to last year.
41:53I just don't necessarily know if the
41:54Chiefs come in here and blow them out,
41:56right? Now I will say
41:58I do think that this is somewhat worth
42:00noting. We should see a lot of zone out
42:02of this Chargers squad. Mahomes has been
42:04carving up zone. I mean he's been
42:05carving up man as well. But and I do
42:08think again it's worth noting. The
42:10inside zone and the outside zone are
42:12what the Chiefs like to run, and Kenneth
42:13Walker, even with the Seahawks, was
42:14really good in those zone runs. The
42:16Chargers actually have been pretty good
42:17against both the inside and the outside
42:19zone so far this season. And if we do
42:22want to say, "Okay, well, what about the
42:24push up front, right?" That might be the
42:26only time we see this rushing attack do
42:29some damage. The outside zone, number
42:30one in the league in terms of yards
42:32before contact, and we're talking about
42:33a bottom 10 team for the Chargers. But
42:35other than that, we have seen this
42:37Chargers team actually play decent when
42:39it comes to rushing defense against
42:42inside zone and outside zone. That being
42:43said, they're still allowing a ton of
42:44rushing yards per game, not getting to
42:46the quarterback, and all that hoopla.
42:48So, I still think the Chiefs are favored
42:50for a very specific reason, and you
42:52know, makes sense reason in this one,
42:54but I don't know. It's almost like I I I
42:56I want to keep that in my mind that,
42:58"Hey, if Kenneth Walker can't run, it
43:01does make this team a little bit more, I
43:03don't want to say one-dimensional cuz
43:04they're far from one-dimensional, but
43:06he's been a big reason as to why they're
43:07undefeated this year. But nonetheless,
43:09I'm still going to lean towards the
43:09Chiefs. I just can't get to the
43:10Chargers, but I don't think I roll with
43:12that. Uh in terms of a total, I don't
43:14mind the idea of an under. I think this
43:15Chargers offense really has struggles.
43:17They're banged up, and if the ground
43:19game doesn't get going for the Chiefs,
43:21this could easily be a game that is, you
43:23know, 20 to 13, even like a 27 to 13 if
43:26you want a little bit of a blowout,
43:27right? Like, you're staying under that
43:2942.5 kind of key number there. I don't
43:32have any player props in this one. I
43:33almost had the audacity to look at a
43:36Kenneth Walker under, and then I sat
43:37there, and I was like, "Okay, as much as
43:39I want to say and get really geeked out
43:41over the inside zone, the outside zone,
43:43that'd be a little too crazy.
43:45But I I did just want to show you what I
43:48was seeing. And if we look at this and
43:49say, "Okay, well, like we said, we're
43:51going to see inside zone, outside zone,
43:52and they'll be pretty good." We can
43:53click similar rush defense, and it's
43:55going to go ahead and take those and put
43:56them into what we're seeing defensively
43:58from this Chargers squad. That's Kenneth
44:00Walker. I mean, obviously, it's dating
44:01back to last year. I don't think he has
44:02just the way I just the one game this
44:04year. Dating back to last year, you're
44:06seeing him kind of struggle to get to
44:07those high numbers against similar rush
44:09defenses to this Chargers team.
44:11But I just don't think I can do it
44:12myself. But I wanted to show you cuz if
44:14you like the look of that,
44:16all that red which, you know, if we flip
44:17it to under like I liked it, all that
44:19green it it is right in your face,
44:22right? But it's Kenneth Walker and the
44:23Chiefs, man. Off a bye. We can't do
44:25this. Raiders hosting the Bills. Here
44:28Raiders coming off of two straight
44:30losses, New England and Kansas City,
44:32right? Now, the Bills coming off of that
44:34win against the Rams in which uh they
44:37took that match-up down to OT. They end
44:39up winning it, right? I mean, the Rams
44:41end up cutting their kicker. There's a
44:42lot to go into that. Um but a 37 to 34
44:44win.
44:45This total is way up there at 53 and
44:471/2. And I will say Tassos brought it up
44:49on H2H and I kind of liked where his
44:52head was at about this game. His first
44:54inkling was Raiders can score 24 points
44:56here. The Bills off The Bills defense
44:58has allowed 31 31 16 to the Chargers,
45:01okay? But then 29 34. No bueno
45:04defensively. And this is a Raiders squad
45:06that has gone 27 26 35 27. And then last
45:10week against the Patriots
45:1217, right? I mean, they're one touchdown
45:14I guess essentially away from getting to
45:15that 24 number, but I do think that this
45:18right here that team total over could be
45:20something to consider overall. I'm going
45:23to give Tassos a little credit. He
45:24picked that in H2H and I do like it,
45:26right? And I also mentioned I kind of,
45:28you know, added on to it that in terms
45:29of the pressure and stuff from the
45:30Bills, sure they can apply some
45:32pressure, but they haven't been crazy
45:34when it comes to applying pressure or
45:35blitzing or anything like that, right?
45:37Kirk Cousins in a clean pocket, which we
45:40have right here top right of your
45:40screen, really really good. So, maybe he
45:43can move that offense along. Does that
45:45mean that I love the Raiders? No, I just
45:47think this could be a high-scoring game
45:48and I think the better way to do that is
45:49kind of the tail end version with the
45:51Raiders going 24 points. I think the
45:53Bills could still score a decent amount.
45:55I think the Bills, you know, minus 4 and
45:571/2. This is much like when I looked at
45:59the Ravens game, only we do have Josh
46:01Allen in this one, right? When I was
46:03like, I think that number just seems a
46:04little too low and blah blah. But Josh
46:06Allen is playing in this one. We do have
46:08James Cook. DJ Moore is questionable.
46:10Josh Palmer is questionable as well. Um
46:12the right tackle Brown is questionable,
46:15but ultimately if this turns into a
46:17shootout, which is kind of how I started
46:18this talking about the Raiders being
46:19able to score, I'm not taking pretty
46:21much any other team in the entire league
46:23in a shootout over the Bills. We just
46:25saw it with the Rams a week ago, right?
46:27So, give me the Bills. Minus 4 and 1/2
46:29seems like just a low enough number. If
46:31you want to look at them, and I'm not
46:32saying this is exactly where I'd go or
46:33what I'd do, but you could get them
46:35right now for minus 170, which is
46:38it is juiced, but at minus 2 and 1/2,
46:40that's on some of the prediction
46:41markets. It's like minus 190, minus 200
46:43everywhere else. But maybe as a parlay
46:45piece or something like that. So, I
46:47don't mind the Bills, but I do think
46:48there could be some points in this one.
46:49So, I like the over, but also sneaky
46:51that Raiders team total over.
46:54The Raiders so far this year have also
46:56allowed plenty of, you know, usage and
47:00whatnot to the tight end position. We
47:01saw Hunter Henry get some targets a week
47:03ago as well. So, if you're looking for a
47:05player prop, I do think that Dalton
47:08Kincaid could be in a really good bounce
47:10back spot. Again, in terms of receiving
47:12yards allowed to tight ends, bottom 10
47:14in the league in terms of just fantasy
47:15points allowed to tight end, really,
47:16really poor. And you could see here,
47:18Juwan Johnson. Then we saw, you know,
47:20Reardon of the the Patriots do pretty
47:22well. Even Hunter Henry looked pretty
47:24good. If these guys go out there and
47:25let's say they get, you know, four
47:27targets or 45 Gs, four targets, you're
47:29seeing a decent amount of yards, right
47:30around 40. If we're going to see him go
47:33out there and get, say, four targets,
47:35right? You're going to see a lot of good
47:38numbers and good looks his way. How
47:39about him for a touchdown as well,
47:41right, at plus 185? We've already seen
47:43plenty of touchdowns to this team.
47:45Hunter Henry got one. We saw Juwan
47:46Johnson catch two. Noah Fant catch two.
47:48I think this could be a good look for
47:50Dalton Kincaid against this Raiders
47:52team. And honestly, on the other side of
47:54the ball, too. Like, if we You to flip
47:55it to Las Vegas, if you do want someone
47:57that I think could just get spammed with
47:59targets from Kirk Cousins, it's going to
48:01be Brock Bowers. I could see him
48:02scoring. Um but plus 100 is an egregious
48:05price tag. But literally, the guy comes
48:06back and it's like, "Oh, yeah. We'll
48:07just pass to him, right?" The dude just
48:09seems to score. So, both tight ends in
48:10this one. In fact, you know what? There
48:12could be uh and if you're watching this
48:14far in the video, this is the second
48:15time I've asked you to comment
48:15something. Comment TE for tight end SGP.
48:19We could have some fun with both Dalton
48:20Kincaid and Brock Bowers in some sort of
48:22an SGP where they both maybe we knock
48:24their lines down a little bit and
48:26Deshaun Watson them. Massage There's a
48:27second joke at that. And we move their
48:29lines down a little bit and have them
48:30both in a parlay. That could be kind of
48:31fun in a game in which we like points
48:33in, right? All right, last but not
48:35least, Sunday night football. Dallas on
48:39the road in Green Bay here at Lambeau,
48:41their Packers. Minus 1 and 1/2 is what
48:44we have right now in terms of the spread
48:45being favored of the Packers. Total
48:47sitting at 53.
48:49In terms of the depth charts here, I
48:51mean, things look pretty good on the
48:52Dallas side of things offensively.
48:54Um Overshown as well as Joey Porter Jr.
48:56questionable here. Kobe Durant also
48:57listed as questionable. In terms of this
49:00Packers squad, Sky Moore questionable
49:02and then Arron Banks, left guard
49:03questionable. And then you see the
49:04defensive side of the ball, that's where
49:05things get a little interesting. I mean,
49:06Nixon Williams in the secondary
49:08questionable, right? Saint Juste as
49:10well. Wyatt and Ford up front
49:12questionable. So, we'll keep an eye on
49:13some of those injuries. But overall, I
49:15do think that we have a pretty damn good
49:16game on our hands here. I'm definitely
49:18looking forward to this one. Now, Dallas
49:21is going to see a lot of zone. Green Bay
49:22likes to do that and they have been very
49:24good against zone so far this season.
49:26That being said, they've been hurried,
49:28they've been sacked plenty, but it's
49:30kind of weird because they're not
49:31getting going to get blitzed Excuse me,
49:33the Packers have sacked and hurried and
49:36hit the QB quite a bit, but they haven't
49:38been pressuring and they haven't been
49:39blitzing all that much just in general.
49:42Um Dallas in terms of sacks per game
49:44allowed offensively, just second. So, I
49:45think they can
49:46hold off this pressure or this sack,
49:49this pass rush. And Dak from a clean
49:50pocket should be pretty good. On the
49:52other side of things, uh you know, not
49:54the other side, but in terms of not
49:55passing, running the ball, I think
49:56Javonte may be in a good place. They're
49:58going to see inside zone and man duo,
50:00and that seemingly is where we see some
50:02good from this Dallas squad overall, uh
50:05and bad from the Green Bay defense. Now,
50:08Green Bay, if we do switch things, Green
50:10Bay's going to see a decent amount of
50:11man. They'll see some zone as well. I
50:12don't know if I've been loving the
50:13passing attack. Not saying they're bad,
50:15but just kind of middle of the pack,
50:16right? But this Dallas defense, man oh
50:18man, have they struggled in the passing
50:20game. Worst in the entire league
50:22defensive DVOA, and they are not
50:25applying any sort of pressure or
50:27blitzing or even hitting the quarterback
50:28or anything like that. And Jordan Love,
50:30pretty damn good from a clean pocket so
50:32far this season. I think that we could
50:34see Green Bay move the ball when it
50:36comes to, you know, I would say on the
50:38ground, in in I would say in the inside
50:41zone and the man duo. But here's the
50:42interesting part. The yards before
50:44contact in the outside zone could be
50:46where they actually do get some nice
50:49runs and and things of that nature. And
50:50a week ago, I mean, they looked a hell
50:52of a lot better on the ground, right?
50:53Like when we look at the the rushers
50:55here from uh who's rushing? From
50:57Marshaun Lloyd, I mean, he had 31 yards,
50:59but two tuddies. They put the ball in
51:00his hands a little bit more, right? We
51:02did see Pierre Strong come on, and he
51:03had five carries, only for 7 yards, but
51:05I wouldn't be surprised if we see a
51:07decent enough game offensively out of
51:08both of these squads. 53 is a pretty
51:11damn high. I'm going to trust the
51:12offensive weapons of the Cowboys. I like
51:14them as underdogs here. I'm going to
51:16lean in that direction, but I know I've
51:18mentioned a couple times with teasers
51:19and STPs, but I think we could see this
51:21game being a high-scoring game in which
51:23we move that 53 down to like 46 and a
51:25half. And then we look at Dallas like
51:27plus three and a half, getting points on
51:29both sides of that teaser. I really do
51:31like the idea of of going in that
51:33direction. Now, I think Dak could have a
51:36very good game just in general, so if
51:38you do want to take him in terms of
51:39passing yards or something like that, I
51:41have no problem with it. The problem is,
51:43so I don't have a problem with it, but
51:44the problem is the line is very, very
51:46high, right? And if we do look at
51:47similar past defenses, he's been okay in
51:49the past, not so much so far, you know,
51:51this year. But ultimately, it's a very
51:52high line. This season, he's been good
51:54to it, but this is not exactly been a
51:56team that is getting carved up by
51:58passers, right? So, makes it a little
52:00interesting, but I don't think that
52:01they've necessarily seen quarterbacks of
52:04Dak Prescott's esteem, right? I mean, so
52:06far this season, they've seen Kyler
52:08Murray, Carson Wentz, Geno Smith,
52:09Michael Penix Jr., Jaylen Daniels, Tyson
52:11Bagent, Case Keenum. Come on, this is
52:13Dak Prescott. So, yeah, I'm going to
52:14lean in the direction of the Cowboys. I
52:15think Dak Prescott could be an
52:17interesting look. I'd also consider this
52:18right here, over one and a half passing
52:20touchdowns against similar passing
52:21defenses to Green Bay. You can see, the
52:23one game this year against the Giants,
52:24he had two. And then dating back to last
52:26year, out of his last five games, he's
52:28had two in four of the five. So, Dak
52:30Prescott definitely could be on my bingo
52:32card here. And obviously, someone has to
52:34catch the ball, right? I would And we
52:35haven't done it yet. I don't want to,
52:36you know,
52:37fake you out and act like I know
52:39something that we haven't dug into, but
52:40maybe I'll do some do my own due
52:41diligence on it. But I do think that CD
52:43or George Pickens, depending on the left
52:45right splits and stuff like that, could
52:46be worth considering here as well. So,
52:50keep an eye on the final plays. This
52:51should be a good Sunday night game. I
52:53always tell you guys, make sure to
52:54follow me on Instagram at F Picks, E V P
52:56I C K Z. We do a lot of short-form
52:59content for some of these primetime
53:00games, and we throw other picks your way
53:02that we don't go over in this video. So,
53:04some cool stuff over there. Make sure to
53:05do that. But guys, it's going to wrap
53:06for today's show. If you guys did enjoy,
53:08if you did, if you stuck around this
53:10long, you got to hit that damn like
53:11button. Hit the subscribe button as
53:13well. Appreciate that a lot of you being
53:14here. Catch you guys in the next, right?
53:15Peace out.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of NFL Picks Week 6 2026 | NFL Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props by Guy Boston Sports, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 12,402 words across 1,730 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.