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0:21okay folks welcome to the January 2017
0:25ICT mentorship long-term analysis Lesson
0:281.1 we're teaching implementing macro
0:31analysis
0:32and this teaching is quarterly shifts
0:34and epta data ranges
0:39the quarterly Market shift
0:45okay if there is an algorithm
0:48if our belief is that there is a
0:50automated price delivery engine that
0:53takes care of
0:54providing efficiency in the delivery of
0:57price the efficiency of
1:00trading at every potential trading price
1:03available per asset we're going to be
1:06dealing specifically with Forex for this
1:08teaching
1:09but the effect of a quarterly Market
1:13shift is in Universal and all asset
1:15classes but I want to ask you a question
1:17just for a moment try to imagine the
1:20world as investing
1:23if it were all completely random
1:26if the market in fact was random
1:29how could anyone reasonably
1:32have an edge
1:36think about it
1:37statistics really what is it you're
1:41still counting the odds of something
1:42that's already happening and attributing
1:45that to some future unseen event so
1:47there's no guarantee
1:49that just if the markets were completely
1:52random if we had based our system if our
1:54analysis concepts are based on the the
1:57effects of Randomness in the marketplace
2:00we're left with the conclusion that
2:02yes
2:04things may have happened 50 times as
2:06their last 60 times and therefore an
2:09edge could be a defined but that does
2:14not equate to Future
2:17events that have not been seen yet
2:20that's the falsehood of teaching
2:23the idea that the markets are completely
2:25random if the markets were in fact
2:28completely random I myself would never
2:30have an interest in them
2:32because I would have new trust in the
2:35fact that there was any measure of
2:37prognostication that would fulfill a
2:40profitable condition as an outcome
2:46my belief is
2:48that the markets are 100 percent
2:50engineered they're absolutely controlled
2:53to the very pip in the Foreign Exchange
2:56Market
2:57I've proven many times in the past over
2:59many years how we can call specific
3:02price levels to the PIP sometimes it
3:05varies a little bit many times going
3:06right to the PIP as an exit or a Target
3:10and my
3:12opinion about that is if I can do that
3:15multiple times throughout the year
3:18that in itself regardless of what I
3:20believe I'm going to be able to
3:22communicate to you from my understanding
3:23about the marketplace
3:25if I could do that to me that proves
3:28that there is in fact zero Randomness to
3:32the marketplace because if it was
3:33Randomness I could not be that precise
3:35about my forecasts and where I believe
3:37the market was going to go going to go
3:41if we understand and can agree
3:44that the markets do in fact have a
3:47element of control and this is in the
3:50form of a price engine algorithm at the
3:54Central Bank level they set the price
3:56they allow the markets to move to a
3:59predefined range for the day
4:01for the most part are sometimes that
4:04things may occur
4:06that they send the price outside of the
4:09predetermined range
4:11but for the most part the interbank
4:14price delivery algorithm or epta has
4:17data ranges that it works Within
4:20and by understanding what those ranges
4:22are
4:23we can go into the marketplace with a
4:25pre
4:26determined idea where the algorithm will
4:30do its work where is it pulling the
4:32information from
4:33what dates what ranges and what specific
4:37highs and lows is the algorithm
4:40reaching to as a reference point
4:43that's what this teaching is going to
4:44talk about specifically today
4:47I want to remind you and I've talked
4:49just briefly about this in the free
4:52tutorial section as I was going through
4:53all of the teachings that I provided for
4:57the online community as it trades the
5:00Foreign Exchange Market I teach it there
5:02is a market structure shift that takes
5:05place every three to four months and for
5:08the most part that's Universal doesn't
5:10apply just to the Foreign Exchange
5:11Market but it does apply to all asset
5:13classes
5:14this effect takes place because
5:17the market has to generate new interest
5:20it has to have a new sense of urgency a
5:25missed opportunity is a lost opportunity
5:28in many people's eyes as a Trader so the
5:32markets have a tendency to move around
5:33and gyrate around every three to four
5:36months what was true or what was seen as
5:38a directional movement in the
5:40marketplace over the last two or three
5:42months
5:43may not in fact be true for the next
5:45coming two to three or four months in
5:48Market Direction
5:49so I'm going to counsel you to always
5:52look at price on a macro level it means
5:54a monthly weekly and daily time frame
5:56and learn to anticipate intermediate
5:59price swings
6:00it doesn't matter if the market is
6:02predisposed to go up on a primary
6:04bullish Market or a primary down Market
6:07you can still fare it out rather
6:09significant intermediate term
6:11retracements in either strong uptrends
6:14or down trends
6:17if you understand this component
6:19you'll also be able to weather the Deep
6:22retracement sometimes in long-term
6:24position trading that is required you'll
6:27also understand that by understanding
6:29that there's intermediate term
6:30retracements on these higher time frame
6:32levels and if you're a long-term
6:34position Trader as this month is
6:36aimed at teaching you also have no
6:39problem and no emotional commitment to
6:45not holding the position forever but in
6:47fact taking some of the position off
6:49waiting for that retracement and then
6:52going back in adding that same position
6:54you just took off or a portion of that
6:56position off your long-term position
6:58trade and then adding it back in to
7:01recapitalize on that further movement
7:03higher every three to four months
7:05there's going to be a change in
7:07Direction
7:09it may cause a consolidation
7:11or it may cause a retracement of
7:14whatever price swing has been unfolding
7:16up to that moment
7:19the fact that the market is in a primary
7:22uptrend or a downtrend that's going to
7:24be the whether or not the market has a
7:26deep retracement on a hard time frame
7:28basis or if it goes into consolidation
7:30if the Market's in a strong uptrend many
7:34times
7:35you won't see much of a retracement but
7:37you will see consolidation or trading
7:39range form and they'll capitalize new
7:41long positions that way and then
7:43sometimes they'll take the market below
7:44a short-term low on a daily chart and
7:47then send it higher after that that
7:49would be the extent of any kind of
7:51retracement but either way I want you to
7:53look at the marketplace there's always
7:56some intermediate term play to trade on
7:58every three to four months on every
8:01asset class if the market you're looking
8:02at or studying is in a significant
8:05range-bound environment
8:07and look at a market that is potentially
8:10moving up to a new uptrend or downtrend
8:13stage in its price action
8:16by doing so it will also get you in line
8:19with potential long-term trends moving
8:21higher or lower respectively to what you
8:23would be seeing in your charts we're
8:25going to talk a lot about that this
8:26month but let's get into a little bit
8:28more nuts and bolts about how we can use
8:30if the data ranges and the quarterly
8:32Market shift
8:35obviously my view on the marketplace is
8:38if we can focus in on what the smart
8:40money is doing with their money
8:42how are they allocating funds how are
8:45they moving into the marketplace if we
8:48can mimic those characteristics in our
8:50own trading uh hopefully the outcome
8:52should be we have high probability
8:54conditions when we look at smart money
8:56accumulation for buy programs the buy
8:58program is when the market goes through
9:01a series of successive days sessions
9:04that are consecutive regardless of what
9:07time frame it is you can see a buy
9:10program on a hourly chart you can see a
9:12buy program on a four hour chart you see
9:15a buy program on a daily and or weekly
9:18or monthly
9:19but the trading
9:22time frame that we're using for this
9:24month is primarily the daily chart so if
9:28we're going to be anticipating a buy
9:30program that means we're going to be
9:32expecting a series of updates and it
9:34could last as long as several months it
9:37doesn't have to be a few days but a few
9:40days up on the daily chart can still be
9:43considered a buy program if it's
9:45reaching for a measure of liquidity that
9:47would be above the recent Market highs
9:52when we're looking for smart money
9:54accumulation for buy programs what we're
9:56essentially expecting is manipulation in
9:59the underlying versus The Benchmark
10:01now what is the underlying and what is
10:03the benchmark
10:05what we're going to be looking at again
10:07specifically dealing with the Foreign
10:08Exchange Market for this teaching but we
10:10will be talking about Commodities we
10:12will be talking about stocks and we'll
10:13be talking about
10:14interest rate markets as well in the
10:16same venue that we're teaching here but
10:19I want to keep the topics very
10:21concise about one asset class at a time
10:24to avoid any kind of confusion on you as
10:27a as a student
10:28but the manipulation of the underlying
10:30the underlying is what you're actually
10:31trading and The Benchmark is what you're
10:34measuring the potential
10:37manipulation or lack thereof
10:41for smart money accumulation for a buy
10:44program on a daily chart The Benchmark
10:46is going to sometimes make a lower low
10:50while the underlying makes a higher low
10:53this would indicate the strong
10:57buying pressure under the underlying
10:59issue or in this case the currency that
11:02you're Trading
11:03it's failing to make a lower low whereas
11:07The Benchmark would be making a lower
11:08low
11:10it's showing relative strength so
11:12therefore you would expect a measure of
11:14upside movement
11:21it's another scenario where smart money
11:22accumulation for buy programs would come
11:24in the way is the underlying or the
11:27currency that you're trading makes a
11:29lower low
11:30while The Benchmark makes a lower high
11:34and this is for inverse correlated
11:37benchmarks to currency and I'll give you
11:40an example for
11:43the point number two
11:45where it says Benchmark makes lower low
11:48underlying makes higher low in this case
11:51that statement could be true by saying
11:53the dollar Index makes a lower low while
11:56the dollar again
11:58makes a higher low that would be an
12:01accumulation by program
12:04the underlying or currency that you're
12:06Trading makes a lower low but the
12:09Benchmark makes a lower high in this
12:12case this would be true in the sense
12:14that if we were looking at say The
12:16British pound USD makes a lower low
12:19while the dollar Index makes a lower
12:22high
12:23what that would indicate is while the
12:25dollar was failing to make a higher high
12:28in respect to making a lower low in the
12:30British pound versus the US dollar
12:33it's indicating that the pound is
12:35actually going under an old low to scoop
12:38up sell side liquidity
12:40so therefore we would anticipate a
12:42turtle soup scenario on a daily chart
12:44Benchmark makes higher high underlying
12:47makes higher low
12:50in this case it's stating in a condition
12:54that would be the dollar making a higher
12:57high which would look like relative
12:59strength for the dollar but the
13:01underlying or in this case we'll use the
13:03pound dollar
13:05makes a higher low
13:07that pound dollar should have made a
13:09lower low but it was unwilling to make
13:11that lower low so therefore the relative
13:12strength is in the buy side on pound
13:15versus dollar
13:16and the dollar is actually going above
13:18an old High to take the buy stops above
13:21and on high and then reject we would
13:23look for a turtle soup cell in the daily
13:25in that condition
13:29for smart money distribution for cell
13:31programs
13:32we'll look at the four conditions we use
13:34for that
13:36again the manipulation in the underlying
13:38versus The Benchmark is what we're
13:40studying
13:41this is all relative to the Daily time
13:43frame only nothing less than a daily
13:45chart
13:47The Benchmark makes a higher high while
13:49the underlying makes a lower high in
13:53this case that would be the dollar
13:54making a higher high while the
13:56underlying
13:58or in this case it would be the dollar
14:00yen
14:01makes a lower high that would be a cell
14:04program we're showing heavy distribution
14:08in the dollar Yen pair
14:13underlying makes a higher high while The
14:15Benchmark makes a higher low this could
14:18be true in the sense that the pound
14:21dollar
14:22makes a higher high while the dollar
14:25Index makes a higher low
14:28in this case what it's implying is for
14:31instance if the underlying is the pound
14:32dollar and it makes a higher high it's
14:34reaching above an old high to get the
14:36buy side liquidity for a turtle soup
14:38cell
14:39and the dollar Index is actually failing
14:41to make a lower low so the underlying
14:44strength is in the dollar Index
14:49lastly for a sell program on the daily
14:52chart The Benchmark makes a lower low
14:54while the underlying makes a lower high
14:57in this case it would be the dollar
14:58Index makes a lower low while the pound
15:01dollar makes a lower high the dollar
15:05Index making a lower low while the pound
15:08making a lower high the pound dollar
15:12while making a lower high showing
15:14relative weakness
15:16while The Benchmark dollar Index makes
15:18that lower low it would look like the
15:20dollar Index is breaking lower so
15:22therefore support broken is going to see
15:24continuation go lower but in fact what's
15:26actually happening is the dollar Index
15:28would be breaking the previous low to
15:30accumulate all the cell stops below an
15:32old low while the pound dollar was
15:35unwilling to make a higher high because
15:36it's already booked enough shorts and
15:38it's heavily under distribution we will
15:40be seeing heavy selling in the pound
15:42dollar
15:43based on the relative weakness because
15:45it was failing to make a higher high
15:47while the dollar Index made a lower low
15:54all that said and it was probably a
15:56little bit confusing for you but I gave
15:57you
15:58some Replacements but the rules are as
16:01they were explained just a moment ago on
16:03the previous slide but you can see
16:06everything set here we'll go through it
16:07briefly
16:09smart money accumulation for buy
16:10programs we're specializing in the
16:13manipulation in the underlying versus
16:14The Benchmark and that's seen in this
16:17sense that the dollar Index makes a
16:19lower low while the dollar Swiss for
16:21example makes a higher low that would be
16:24bullish for
16:25the dollar Swiss euro dollar makes a
16:28lower low while the dollar Index makes a
16:30lower high that would be seen as
16:33bearishness for the dollar and the
16:36bullishness for the euro dollar because
16:38it went below an old low to scoop up the
16:40sell side liquidity and then you would
16:42see a rejection or a turtle soup long
16:46the dollar Index makes a higher high and
16:49the euro dollar makes a higher low and
16:52that would be relative strength for the
16:54euro dollar and the move above the old
16:56high on the dollar Index would be a
16:58turtle soup cell after running the buy
17:00stock liquidity
17:01and the smart money distribution for
17:03cell programs again focusing on
17:05manipulation in the underlying versus
17:07The Benchmark the dollar Index makes a
17:09higher high at the same time the dollar
17:12Swiss would be making a lower high that
17:14would be relative weakness in the dollar
17:16Swiss pair and the dollar Index making a
17:19move of an old high would be a run on
17:22buy stock for a dollar and then you
17:24would see rejection after that and
17:25looking for lower prices on dollar Index
17:28a dollar Index and the dollar Swiss are
17:32closely correlated and just like the
17:35dollar Swiss being close to Chloride to
17:37dollar Index so is dollar CAD when oil
17:40is not an issue and dollar yen is also
17:43closely correlated to the dollar Index
17:46positively or naturally correlated uh
17:50versus the euro dollar in the dollar
17:53Index they're inversely correlated so
17:55that means whatever the euro dollar is
17:56doing the option seeing in the dollar
17:58Index and this third example for the
18:01cell program euro dollar makes a higher
18:04high while the dollar Index makes a
18:06higher low a relative strength in the
18:09dollar Index and underlying weakness
18:12should be expected after euro dollar
18:13takes that old high out running out to
18:15buy stock liquidity and the daily chart
18:17should see lower prices in that
18:18condition
18:20uh dollar Index makes a lower low while
18:23the euro dollar makes a lower high
18:25that's relative weakness in the euro
18:28dollar pair while the dollar Index does
18:31in fact go below that lower low the
18:32dollar that's would be scooping up the
18:34sell side liquidity below an old low and
18:36then rejection and trading higher on the
18:38dollar Index thus pushing your dollar
18:41lower
18:45okay but we're looking at here the
18:46dollar Index is a monthly chart and what
18:49I did was outlined a full year January
18:53to January and I want you to take a look
18:55at the price swings in between all of
18:58these
18:58reference points vertically as you can
19:01see there's a couple different Market
19:03shifts that take place
19:07and this is what it looks like if you
19:09have it set up on
19:11every four months versus the last live
19:13being every three months and I'll give
19:15you an example of seeing it again
19:17this is
19:18your chart divided up on every three
19:20months
19:22and every four months and you can still
19:24see it gives you a really good context
19:27of where the market structure is and
19:30what Market shift should take place next
19:34foreign
19:35this is that same dollar Index that's
19:38viewed on a weekly time frame and we're
19:41looking at every four months
19:44for quarterly shifts
19:49and we're going to drop down into a
19:50daily chart
19:52you can see here
19:54we have the dollar Index daily and what
19:57I did was again I'm only using calendars
20:00starts of each month here
20:04from one January to the following years
20:06January
20:08or in the case of this example the New
20:11Year 2017 that we're now in
20:14looking at 2016's January 1st to January
20:171st of 2017.
20:21I want you to take a look at how many
20:22times the market shifts back and forth
20:24and how many price swings you see over
20:27the course of a full year
20:29I want a daily time frame you're not
20:32getting a great deal of setups and
20:35unfortunately that's the reason why most
20:36people don't trade this time frame but
20:38it is a time frame that is supportive to
20:41all other
20:43disciplines of trading and I said this
20:44multiple times and I kind of belabor it
20:47here but I want you to see how the
20:50market does in fact give us a very good
20:52macro view of the marketplace where it
20:55gives us framework and structure to work
20:57within so that way we can trade on one
20:59side of the marketplace and focus
21:00primarily there
21:06all right let's deal with a little bit
21:08more detail about what is a quarterly
21:10shift
21:12okay on your chart you're going to
21:14delineate
21:16with a vertical line on your calendar
21:19at the beginning of the year you're
21:20going to find or and if you're just now
21:22starting say you're watching this video
21:24which you shouldn't be because everyone
21:26should be watching at the same time in
21:28January 2017 as part of this mentorship
21:30but for those that are studying again
21:33watching this video and the mentorship
21:34and their access to the content
21:37you may look at your charts and it may
21:40be May okay it could be three years from
21:43now
21:44and you could do a whole new analysis by
21:46taking a look at the chart and putting a
21:48vertical line at the beginning of the
21:50most recent past month okay for instance
21:52we're in January right now you would put
21:54it on the first day of December
21:57okay and you would do everything I'm
21:58about to explain to you here but to
22:00start it all to make it easy to explain
22:02everything I just used the January to
22:03the January Factor
22:06and we're going to be viewing that as
22:08the anticipated quarterly shift now we
22:10don't know that's going to be true
22:12but we're going to do some things to
22:14arrive at how we can calibrate that
22:17level
22:19and this is called the look back
22:23what you're going to be doing is you're
22:24going to look back from your month of
22:27study wherever that is in time
22:29regardless of what when you start your
22:31analysis the most recent past month okay
22:35you want to be using that first trading
22:38day of that month put a vertical line on
22:40your chart and then from that point on
22:42you're going to be looking back to the
22:44left you're going to be looking back to
22:45the left of that vertical line that you
22:48place on your chart
22:5060 trading days
22:5240 trading days and 20 trading days now
22:55why am I giving you those three
22:57parameters
22:58the algorithm will reach back about
23:03three trading months worth of data
23:07that's the the average where it'll reach
23:09back for now there's other times where
23:11it will go into further ranges but for
23:15now I'm just teaching you how to look
23:17for the most Salient points of reference
23:20on the daily chart
23:23the 60 the 40 and the 20 trading days
23:26left of the most recent calendar month
23:30put your vertical line on that that's
23:32your beginning marker point and you're
23:34going to delineate what 60 days to the
23:37left of that is what 40 days to the left
23:39of that is and what 20 days and they're
23:41all trading days not calendar days
23:45you're going to basically in those
23:46ranges you're going to identify
23:47institutional order flow what was the
23:49market doing
23:5160 days ago to now
23:54or
23:55instead of a vertical line of that most
23:57recent month that's delineated in your
24:00chart also to the left of that vertical
24:03line you place on your chart
24:05you're going to be looking back over
24:07the 60 the 40 and the 20 past trading
24:10days to the left of that past month
24:13and you're going to look for recent
24:15institutional reference points
24:18I'm gonna look for an old price High
24:21you're gonna look at old price low why
24:24are you doing that you're looking for a
24:25potential liquidity pool that would be
24:28resting above it or if those highs have
24:30a lot of Wicks you're going to be
24:32looking for rejection blocks which would
24:33be a move above the bodies of the
24:35candles for a potential sell-off
24:37or below an old low that has long Wicks
24:41on it you'd be looking for the bodies of
24:42the candle to house some
24:45cell side liquidity below that for a
24:47rejection block
24:49or sell stops below an old blow if
24:52there's not a whole lot of Wicks to the
24:53lows that would be defined in the last
24:5560 to 40 to 20 trading days
24:58you'll be looking for bearish order
25:00blocks pool shoulder blocks in the last
25:0360 days and you're going to look
25:05specifically around the last 60 around
25:0740 in the last 20 days basically you're
25:09looking back the last three trading
25:11months
25:14and you'll be looking for fair value
25:15gaps and any liquidity voids as well
25:21once you identify
25:23over the last 60 trading days okay
25:26you're using the previous
25:29closed calendar month as your beginning
25:32reference point again as an example
25:34right now today it's January 6th 2017.
25:40and if I were to use this method I would
25:43look at December 1st 2016. my vertical
25:46line would be on that calendar day and
25:49then I would book 60 trading days to the
25:52left of that on my chart I would look 40
25:54trading days to the left of that and I
25:56would look 20 trading days to the left
25:58of that December 1st or whatever the
26:00first trading day would be for December
26:012016.
26:03and I'll be looking for over those three
26:06months where's the high and where's the
26:08low if the market has been trading
26:11higher I'm going to frame everything off
26:13of the market low if it's been trading
26:16lower I'm going to trade frame
26:18everything off of the market High
26:20so again I'll repeat that for you
26:22you're looking back left
26:2560 trading days at the maximum over
26:28those last 60 trading days you're
26:30determining what was the institutional
26:31order flow over those last three months
26:33was it trading higher collectively or
26:36was it trading lower collectively
26:38as a whole
26:40sometimes you can look at it and it'll
26:42be a rather large trading range and
26:44that's okay still you'll be able to do
26:46things with that as well but for now you
26:48want to see what's more significant was
26:51there a significant intermediate term
26:52price low formed in the last 60 trading
26:55days to the left
26:56or was it a significant intermediate
26:58term high that formed whichever is true
27:01and whichever is obvious to you then you
27:04put your vertical line on that high or
27:07that low
27:08so now you're calibrating it to the
27:10market structure that's in place right
27:11now
27:13once you do that what you're doing is
27:14you're anchoring your vertical line to a
27:17previous Market structure shift
27:23okay so let's go back to our daily chart
27:26of the dollar Index okay and this is
27:28what we had earlier
27:29in the presentation I had January 1st
27:322016 to January 1st 2017.
27:36okay and I'm going to do what I just
27:38explained to you
27:40if we were looking at the market in
27:42January 1st of 2016 we're going to
27:45actually do
27:46what I explained
27:49just a moment ago and this is what we
27:51end up at we would be moving to December
27:552015
27:57the first trading day there
28:00versus January 1st of 2016. so we moved
28:04to the left
28:05and we noted that high and we were using
28:07the first calendar day of the month
28:10and they're always using that reference
28:12point to calibrate and begin because
28:14again if our belief is the algorithm is
28:17systematic it's methodical it's going to
28:19work on data ranges and it's going to
28:22use calendar dates and it has to
28:25reference how far to look back because
28:27it's a numerical reference point so now
28:30we know how we can calibrate just like
28:31the algorithm will will Define it in the
28:34sense of every three months there is a
28:36shift also in the last three months
28:38where is the liquidity at and that's
28:40essentially what we're going to be
28:41talking specifically dealing with in the
28:44next teaching with the open float but
28:46for here to get to that understanding in
28:48the next teaching I have to teach you
28:49how to calibrate your Market structure
28:51so that way you can see where the market
28:53is most likely going to reach for
28:57so now we have our reference point on
29:00our vertical line all the way to the
29:01left the furthest most left vertical
29:04line again delineated at December 1st
29:072015 and now we're anchored now we're
29:09going to do the look back on that
29:11vertical line we're going to be looking
29:14at the range
29:16that was created in the last 60 trading
29:18days from that vertical line that we
29:20adjusted and anchored at December 1st
29:222015.
29:25over the last 60 trading days what we
29:28saw is the market traded higher
29:31from around October 2015 so it made an
29:34interview and term low
29:35the market traded up and created that
29:37short-term or any term High
29:39at December 1st or their balance in the
29:43last 40 trading days to the left of that
29:45December 1st 2015 delineation with that
29:48vertical line we also see there was a
29:50consolidation and then expanded again
29:52once more time higher
29:54in the last 20 trading days to the left
29:57of that vertical line the market just
29:59kept pressing higher so institution
30:00order flow was bullish
30:03so where is the liquidity at
30:09it's going to be what
30:11it's going to be below the marketplace
30:14because the market has already traded
30:16higher
30:17that's this reference point here
30:21right below that October low
30:26the market trades lower after or to the
30:29right of December 1st 2015. once the
30:32market trades lower
30:35in between this reference point once we
30:37identified where the market structure
30:39starts to break down that means a kilo
30:41was broken and that kilo is seen
30:44right here
30:49any retracement higher or movement
30:52higher at this moment we're going to be
30:54anticipating a move lower because the
30:56market has already been moving bullishly
30:59we've seen a market structure break
31:00lower
31:03and now we're going to be anticipating a
31:05potential move lower in the dollar Index
31:08it could be a consolidation sideways but
31:11we're still expecting a measure of
31:14bearishness in the dollar Index post
31:16December 2015.
31:23the 60 to 40 and the 20 when we look
31:26back like this again we're focusing
31:28primarily on where has the market traded
31:32from what was the institutional order
31:34flow at that point and at the this time
31:36we can see clearly between the October
31:39and November into December 2015 the
31:43market had been Trading bullishly
31:45I don't care about the long long term
31:47Trend right now all we're doing is
31:49looking at quarterly shifts and this
31:51will give you a great deal context on
31:52how you can
31:54do a lot of different trading but it'll
31:56help you frame your position trades
31:58because without understanding this you
32:00can't incorporate Trend to get yourself
32:02on the right side of the marketplace
32:03there are things that we're going to
32:05teach in the content for January that
32:08helps you get in sync with long-term
32:09trends but for the most part I want you
32:11to look at how the market shifts back
32:13and forth both directions
32:15the markets aren't always in big
32:17long-term trends on the higher time
32:20frame charts they may be in a larger
32:22range
32:23that larger range will be trends that
32:27would look Dynamic on a hourly chart or
32:3015 minute time frame but on a higher
32:32time frame you're still within a
32:33well-defined range
32:36so by using this higher time frame daily
32:38chart when we see the market structure
32:40shift bearishly
32:42we're expecting now the next three
32:45months
32:46to be a potential correction
32:49again the reference points that I asked
32:51you to go into and look for were all the
32:54things we taught in September which is
32:57the order block bullish and bearish
33:00fair value gaps liquidity voids
33:04old highs and old lows
33:07so we're anticipating a move back into
33:10institutional reference points then
33:13moving lower looking for that same event
33:16to occur looking for lower level
33:17institutional reference points in other
33:20words price should be drawn down to a
33:21logical level not Randomness down to a
33:24logical level from an Institutional
33:26vantage point where we can see where
33:28they would want to absorb liquidity or
33:30engineer new liquidity into the
33:32marketplace
33:37so using this last 60 40 and 20
33:42idea we want to look at how price in
33:45those ranges what is it created well the
33:47market has moved higher
33:50so prior to December 1st 2015 the
33:55marketplace had an Institutional order
33:58flow that was moving bullishly
34:00so that means as the market was moving
34:01higher every short-term low is going to
34:04have sell side liquidity or sell stops
34:06below that
34:08so in each one of these ranges what we
34:10can do is Define the range find the low
34:13and then we can note that as where all
34:16of the cell side liquidity is
34:26now once you have your
34:29vertical line calibrated to the most
34:32recent Market structure shift
34:35and you've done the look back and you've
34:37defined all of the liquidity reference
34:39points on the 60 40 and 20 last trading
34:42days to the left
34:43and you identified institution order
34:45flow and you referred to all the recent
34:47institutional reference points that
34:49we've identified in brief listing
34:52now you're going to be doing the cast
34:53forward
34:55okay the cast four is when you look
34:56ahead with the same parameters we use
34:59when we look back
35:01we're anticipating the next Market shift
35:03in 20 to 60 trading days again because
35:07if we understand and we our belief is
35:09the market will have a gyration a new
35:14directional bias okay or a shift in
35:17sentiment or as I call it a quarterly
35:21shift
35:25we cast forward 20 days to the right of
35:28our vertical line when the last shift
35:30was 40 days ago
35:34in other words if we've seen a market
35:36structure shift
35:38after a vertical line was delineated if
35:40we see the market shift
35:41in the last 40 days to the left of where
35:44we're at now
35:45we cast forward 40 more days because
35:48we're always using a reference point of
35:5060 days
35:57we cast forward 40 days
36:00when the last shift was 20 days ago
36:03again the common denominator is it's 60
36:06days of range that we're always using
36:12we do this until we reach the extreme of
36:15the projected three month limit in other
36:17words where there would be another
36:18vertical line drawn on our chart or
36:21capping three months
36:28so what does that look like this is what
36:30it looks like here
36:32this is called the cast forward where we
36:34have delineated a calendar first trading
36:37day at 2015 December 1st as we did
36:40moments ago
36:42we have a 20-day range a 40-day range
36:45and a 60-day range
36:46added to the right of our
36:50December 1st 2015 delineation or the
36:54vertical line and now what we have is
36:57a future
36:59day range or a data range the algorithm
37:03is going to anticipate
37:05doing a shift in the marketplace in that
37:09range between 60
37:12and 20 days
37:15if we've seen the market structure break
37:16down
37:17as we saw
37:19a moments ago by delineating this low
37:21here
37:27then we're looking for a market move
37:28going lower
37:30to fill in a potential liquidity void
37:34seen here
37:41in the range of 60 days to the right of
37:45our Market structure shift delineation
37:47that we have at December 1st 2015.
37:51we expect a
37:53setup on the daily chart essentially in
37:55the next 60 days so that tells you a
37:58time Horizons you could have to wait
38:00sometimes as long as 60 trading days
38:03now this is the reason why I'm not a
38:05heavy positioned Trader because I don't
38:07have the capacity to wait that long for
38:10the next trade some of you that may be
38:11perfect for you but for me personally it
38:14doesn't fit my cup of tea but it doesn't
38:16have to require you trading for that
38:19entire duration you can use this to get
38:22daily bias contacts you can get
38:24short-term setups and you can get
38:26long-term objectives where the market
38:27should be moving over weeks and months
38:30versus limiting your scope on a
38:33short-term intraday basis and marrying
38:35those lower time frames
38:39now we're looking at the euro dollar in
38:41the same way but obviously like we
38:43mentioned earlier the U.S dollar is
38:46going to be inversely related to the
38:48euro dollar
38:49if we're expecting bearishness on the
38:52dollar Index we would be expecting
38:53bullishness on the euro dollar
38:57so in the same way we're going to add 20
38:59days to the right of our 2015 December
39:031st 40 days to the right of that
39:06vertical line and then we're going to
39:07add 60 days to the right of that line
39:09and on mt4 what you're going to do is
39:12you can just use a trend line
39:13and anchor it to your vertical line
39:17drive it out to the right and let go of
39:20it for a little bit and click back on
39:22the right end of it and drag it out some
39:23more and you'll see the number that
39:25gives you a range is pull that out until
39:27you get to 20 to 40 into 60 and then
39:31you'll have the delineations that would
39:33be necessary to frame out how far the
39:36ipta data ranges go
39:39I want you to see that the high formed
39:43here
39:44on the euro dollar look how it falls
39:46directly right at the 60 day
39:48if the data range
39:50Nails it on the very high
39:53now this is a daily chart folks okay so
39:55think about what we're doing here we're
39:57mapping out where the highest probable
39:58time
40:01when the time range should be
40:03influential in when the setups occur now
40:06we're going to have a lot of tools to
40:08help us
40:09move down into a lot more Precision even
40:12with this time frame but you have to
40:14understand when the setups occur
40:17again if it's something that's not
40:19random and if it is in fact manipulated
40:21and controlled there should be
40:22characteristics that repeat themselves
40:24and it should be measurable and we
40:26should be able to see things repeat
40:27themselves based on a criteria
40:30the algorithm will seek to do something
40:34in the first 20 days the first 40 days
40:37and up to 60 days after the most recent
40:41Market structure shift we saw a high
40:44form on the dollar Index and expected
40:47the market to move lower because it
40:49broke its Market structure bearishly
40:51we can see the euro dollar made a low
40:54here December 1st 2015 and price moved
40:58higher breaking Market structure
40:59bullishly for it
41:02in between
41:04the vertical lines okay once you have
41:07calibrated your Market structure
41:10on a quarterly basis and we're assuming
41:12back in back in 2015 December 1st that
41:16we would have calibrated there now again
41:18I'm going to give you this as a homework
41:20because I want you to go through your
41:21charts and do this very exercise and
41:23you're going to see it's not form fitted
41:25it's the same stuff that you can do in
41:27your own charts don't just use what I'm
41:30using here go into your charts and do
41:32the very thing that I'm showing you here
41:34assume that you started doing the
41:35analysis in for instance July of 2016
41:39and do the same thing okay and you'll
41:41see it still helps you it'll give you
41:43all the data points that you would be
41:44using
41:46but if we see that we're expecting
41:50bullishness on the part of the euro
41:53dollar because the dollar Index was
41:55expected to go bearishly
41:57after December 2015
42:01that means all the way up into March
42:032016 we have a stance that the
42:07bearishness in the dollar should bode
42:09well for bullishness on the euro dollar
42:12so between those two reference points
42:14because we understand that December 1st
42:16okay we go out forward three to four
42:20months we go as far as March 1st
42:25and by having March 1st
42:27defined as the beginning of the new
42:29month out that that far away we project
42:31that that
42:32limit on the quarterly range
42:36in between December 1st and March 1st we
42:40would be expecting a bullish signal to
42:42form in the euro dollar and a bear
42:45signal to form in the dollar Index
42:49getting back to what we mentioned
42:50earlier about buy programs and sell
42:52programs the scenario would be even
42:54looking at a daily chart
42:56there's going to be a
42:59manipulation that takes place even on a
43:01higher time frame daily let's go back to
43:03the dollar Index
43:08okay do you see the highs
43:12here
43:15all these Highs are forming inside of
43:18the data range
43:20of 60 days to the right of the beginning
43:22of December 2015.
43:25so all of these highs in here
43:27higher higher higher higher
43:30is seeing what after the market
43:33structure break below this low here
43:36all these retracements higher all that
43:38did was close in this liquidity void
43:42when this void closed in up here
43:45inside of the data range of 60 days
43:50we had to measure
43:52is there all this Justified
43:55by using a inversely related currency
43:58like the euro dollar now we can go and
44:01take a look at the lows that were
44:03forming in the euro dollar
44:08here's 20 days 40 days and 60 days to
44:12the right of the delineation setting our
44:14new marker for the quarterly shift
44:17look at the lows here
44:20in the euro dollar
44:21all the way up to the 60-day data range
44:25the lows were higher in the euro dollar
44:29so this was under what
44:31accumulation
44:33the underlying which would be traded
44:35because we don't trade the dollar Index
44:36we use it as a benchmark the underlying
44:39is failing to make a lower low again at
44:41the same time
44:43that The Benchmark is making higher
44:45highs by all standards this looks like
44:48bullishness every time a new high is
44:50formed and it looks like it's trying to
44:52go higher all it's doing is inching up
44:54the clothes in this liquidity void that
44:55reference point that we talked about at
44:57the beginning of this teaching this is
44:59what it's looking to close in it's
45:01pressing higher
45:02at the same time all this entire High
45:05business is not being seen with lower
45:08lows in the euro dollar and it's
45:10occurring
45:11in between
45:13where we delineate the market structure
45:15shift here we go out three months that
45:17means there's going to be a move that
45:18takes place in the next three months on
45:21the daily chart we're looking for it to
45:22happen within 60 days of a new calendar
45:26month
45:28if this data range will go out and
45:29project that long
45:32the 60-day delineation nails the very
45:34high so you have a buy-in here
45:38and it ends right here after closing in
45:41this void
45:44okay
45:45so essentially what we're doing is we're
45:47framing the market quarterly
45:50and it gives us a context to look at the
45:52market modularly so we can take the
45:56price action and really look inside of
45:58it and look for setups instead of just
46:00being lost in the whole
46:03grand scheme of things looking at the
46:05candles highs and lows and all that
46:06business you have to understand there's
46:08a the Rhythm
46:10and there's a there's a method behind
46:12how price is delivered even on a daily
46:14chart like this every three months to
46:16four months there's going to be a shake
46:18up in the market there's going to be a
46:21sentiment shift there's going to be
46:23a change in Trend okay there's going to
46:26be excitement injected into the
46:28marketplace to cause interest in a
46:31specific asset class especially if it's
46:33an asset class that's been dormant for a
46:35while it hasn't been traded much they
46:37tend to take those markets and shake
46:38them up so
46:40by looking the market and breaking it
46:42down like this it gives us a great deal
46:44of context it's specific it's measurable
46:47it gives us a very clear indication of
46:50what we're doing and how how long it
46:52should take to form and then looking for
46:54the signs to create these setups
47:00you can see here at the lows we had a
47:04market structure shift that was bullish
47:06on the dollar Index if we had these
47:08highs in here taken out on the upside so
47:12no highs were violated on the upside
47:15prior to this High here on the daily so
47:18institution order flow broke to
47:20bullishness here because of the shift in
47:22Market structure
47:23the Market's trading lower here okay now
47:26we have another divider okay at June
47:301st 2016.
47:33so all you're doing is adding another
47:34vertical line once you have one you go
47:37out in time you add these individually
47:39okay
47:41now you can calibrate them as you see
47:43fit based on what the Market's doing but
47:45I'm going to resist the temptation to
47:47calibrate it based on this Market
47:48structure shift here because you could
47:50do the same thing here once this Market
47:52structure breaks foolishly here
47:55you can go back to May 1st and use that
47:59as your delineation and then start going
48:0120 days 40 days 60 days to the right of
48:04it okay and then draw another vertical
48:06line every three months or so and then
48:09that will be the same thing to be
48:10accomplished here but I want to keep
48:12everything as it is here because I don't
48:13want to do any more that's necessary to
48:15teach this specific principle because
48:17we're going to build on it as we go
48:18through January's content
48:20but I want you to take a look at what
48:22this is done we have a low here
48:24on the dollar Index we have a low here
48:26on the dollar Index that's lower and
48:28then we have another lower low on the
48:30dollar Index after the market structure
48:31has broken to the bullish side
48:33so once we have an interruption in the
48:36down move okay notice also it's been
48:39essentially six months of down movement
48:41on the dollar
48:42that's about when you're going to see
48:44the shake-up that takes place and
48:47there's also going to be a seasonal
48:48influence that we're going to talk about
48:49in January as well but for this movement
48:53here I want you to take a look at the
48:54relationship of how the dollar makes
48:56these lower lows in here
48:58let's go back to the euro dollar at the
48:59same time let's see what was going on
49:01around June of 2016 in the euro
49:08well we're not seeing that higher high
49:10that would be reasonably expected
49:13as we saw lower lows in dollar let's go
49:15back again
49:18we have lower lows in the dollar
49:22at the same time we should be seeing
49:23higher highs in the euro dollar
49:26it's not happening we see a higher high
49:28here but you have to look at every
49:30institutional reference point we have an
49:32old high back here
49:35relatively this is not higher it's
49:38actually lower this is a market that's
49:40heavily being distributed
49:42this Market run up here is just a run on
49:45buy side liquidity taking the buy stops
49:46out on short players already and then
49:49the market trades lower
49:53in between the vertical lines to
49:56delineate the next Market shift
50:00okay there's a quarterly shift that
50:01takes place every three or four months
50:03and you can see that these
50:06smart money accumulation and
50:07distribution programs are very easy to
50:10see in price action but you have to
50:12Define it in such a way where you now
50:14look for it to occur
50:16also notice and I'll leave this for your
50:18own personal study
50:20how many days away
50:22to the right of this calendar start
50:24that's just High form
50:27I'll leave that for your personal study
50:30I'll also counsel you to take a look at
50:32this day right here
50:33this is the election
50:35okay even on the day of the election
50:38there is
50:41exactly out to 60 days
50:43to the right of of here 60 days on the
50:48empty mt4 platform now it's the very
50:50very high that gives us the sell-off so
50:53initially it opened up traded higher on
50:55the euro dollar and rejected and traded
50:57aggressively lower
51:00this higher high
51:02again here's the old High
51:04this higher high is not being seen
51:09with a lower low in the dollar Index
51:12so dollars being accumulated the
51:15underlying strength is in dollar can't
51:17go lower
51:18and
51:20the euro dollar only went higher to take
51:22out the buy stops they're going to
51:23reject that as
51:25false strength which is suspect rally
51:28and the price moved lower
51:30as a result of it so
51:33I want you to go through this notes this
51:35is going to require you a lot of
51:36thinking as that's why I said this month
51:38is going to be a lot of information
51:39that's why you have to have a video
51:41recording every single day and they have
51:44to be pre-recorded if I do any live
51:46sessions this entire month of January
51:48there's no way I have enough time in the
51:50day and also live my own personal life
51:52to be able to complete all the things
51:55that's necessary to cover long-term
51:57analysis and have it all encapsulated in
51:59the first month of 2017 and then again
52:02framework going forward so go through
52:05the notes on this one again go through
52:07your charts also using it as well and
52:09again in summary all you're doing is
52:11you're looking for a obvious break and
52:16shift in the marketplace like this was
52:18one here
52:19okay the market trades higher and then
52:22if we were looking at the market in
52:25February
52:27we could go back to January 1st and put
52:29our marker there and then go out 20 days
52:3240 days 60 days and you'd get something
52:35here
52:36we're looking back and see where the
52:38liquidity is resting you're looking back
52:40to find what liquidity is and you're
52:41looking forward or to the right of it to
52:44get the very next setup in terms of the
52:47data range you're going to know how long
52:49it takes potentially before the next
52:51setup forms
52:53and how far back you look for the
52:57liquidity reference points for where the
52:58stops are on the above or below the lows
53:00and where the liquidity voids and gaps
53:03are that you want to be referencing so
53:05it gives you context and believe me
53:06we're gonna have lots of examples of
53:08this for January's content but for the
53:11most part I want you to look at the
53:12market in a quarterly basis I want you
53:14to be able to calibrate your Market
53:16shifts okay on a quarterly basis how
53:19it's being defined in this video and
53:21regardless of where you're at in time
53:23like for instance
53:25say it was November 14 2016.
53:29what month would you calibrate your
53:32vertical line to to start
53:39if you said October 1st 2016 you're
53:41accurate you're correct if you said
53:43anything other than that you're wrong
53:44okay you want to go back to the previous
53:46closed month you want to go back one
53:49full calendar month where it traded from
53:51the first trading day to the last
53:52trading day and then created a new month
53:54by doing that you calibrate yourself
53:56that way you'll be able to see what it
53:58is doing reference wise
54:00and then you start walking forward from
54:02there when you see an obvious change in
54:05Trend which we saw up here we have a
54:08market structure break here bearishly
54:09for the Euro all this rallying up is
54:12just another attempt to do what we saw
54:14happening
54:16in the dollar back here when it had a
54:18market structure break bearishly it
54:20traded higher up the closing the void
54:22and then sold off
54:24the same thing is just being seen here
54:27Market structure break here smart comes
54:29up take out buy side liquidity and
54:32underlying weakness seen here
54:35the heavy distribution and the market
54:37goes lower as a result of it again we'll
54:39talk more on this as we go through the
54:41content throughout the year but
54:45for January we'll touch more on this
54:46because I'm quite sure while your gears
54:49are turning now and you're probably
54:51really excited about what you're seeing
54:52some of you invariably are going to want
54:54to send me emails I didn't understand
54:55this I didn't understand that don't do
54:58that yet hold off on sending emails and
55:01wait and see if the content doesn't
55:02answer your questions by the end of this
55:03month
55:04until the next video wish you good luck
55:06and good Trading

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This page contains the full transcript of YouTube transcript (n7SPAK_tpN8) , generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 8,588 words across 1,352 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.