Mortality with Meep: q_x — Transcript

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1. 0:00howdy y'all today I'm starting a new
2. 0:03series mortality with me I've got my
3. 0:06actuarial shirt on and you know you can
4. 0:08trust me so I'm starting at the very
5. 0:11beginning a very good place to start now
6. 0:13so I'm starting with foundational terms
7. 0:17when we're talking about mortality and
8. 0:19specifically I'm talking about did we
9. 0:24get that Q sub X okay so alert his Q a
10. 0:27subscript X what does this mean this is
11. 0:31the probability that someone currently
12. 0:34age act so let's say Q sub 65 the
13. 0:37probability someone currently age 65
14. 0:40that they will die within the next year
15. 0:43so in a period of one year this is
16. 0:45standard notation at least in the u.s.
17. 0:48there are different kinds of actuarial
18. 0:50notations but this is the one that we
19. 0:52use the most when you hear about a
20. 0:55mortality table and if you see a
21. 0:58mortality table almost always the
22. 1:00structure is you have the ages going
23. 1:03along the side and then you have the Q
24. 1:07sub X's for each of the ages so whole
25. 1:11age and I'll talk a little bit about how
26. 1:15you figure that out for yourself if it's
27. 1:17not your birthday but let's just assume
28. 1:19birthday because that's close enough
29. 1:22this is the foundation we develop
30. 1:25everything else from these Q sub X's
31. 1:28when we calculate life expectancy when
32. 1:32we calculate survival probabilities so
33. 1:34this wants to let you know there is a
34. 1:37survival probability and that's P sub X
35. 1:41okay so people remember you know mind
36. 1:44your P's and Q's so P sub X is the
37. 1:49probability that you survive one year so
38. 1:52these tend to be very high the the Q sub
39. 1:54X is tend to be very low except at high
40. 1:56ages when we talk about mortality
41. 1:59improvement we're talking about this Q
42. 2:02sub X getting smaller so you have say a
43. 2:06two percent improvement and that's quite
44. 2:08big you would multiply the Q sub X by
45. 2:1198%
46. 2:13so 1 minus 2% and you apply that to the
47. 2:17Q sub X and make it smaller so every
48. 2:20time I talk about our graph mortality
49. 2:23rates I'm using these Q sub axes that's
50. 2:27very basic you look up the tables from
51. 2:30the Social Security Administration from
52. 2:32the SOS Mort SOA Mort SOA org or
53. 2:37mortality orgs tables and I'll be
54. 2:40looking at those in time it's all cute
55. 2:43sub X's and that's what we mainly look
56. 2:46at and develop everything else
57. 2:48so now you know Q sub X