YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → Morgen sind die MIDTERMS – die Börse macht einen FEHLER!

Morgen sind die MIDTERMS – die Börse macht einen FEHLER! — Transcript

by Balthasar Becker · 4,995 words · 801 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00Trump will lose the midterm elections
0:02tomorrow. This Republican election
0:04defeat has ended the AI trade and will
0:07plunge the stock market into a crash.
0:10That is at least what the stock market
0:12is currently pricing in. Why I believe
0:14it is wrong, and where your mega
0:16opportunity lies, we will discuss now in
0:18this video. We are jumping right in.
0:21You can see here that the probability of
0:24the Democrats winning both houses of
0:27Congress in tomorrow's election on
0:30November 3rd......is rising and rising
0:33and rising.
0:34This so-called Blue Sweep now has a
0:37probability of over 70%.
0:42This means it is to be expected—and the
0:45market is pricing this in, which is why
0:48it fell so sharply on Friday—that the
0:52Republicans will lose both chambers,
0:55making Donald Trump a so-called "lame
0:58duck."
0:59He will then be able to implement much
1:01less.
1:02This state is also called gridlock; he
1:05is essentially locked in and has much
1:07less room to maneuver.
1:10But many people overlook the fact that
1:12the stock market actually loves this
1:15state, because the market always reacts
1:17very poorly to uncertainty.
1:19Currently, the market is afraid, which
1:21is why it is falling. As soon as there
1:23is certainty, whether it's Democrats or
1:26Republicans, things will look much
1:28better.
1:30At the same time, however, you must know
1:32that there is a huge danger if the
1:34Democrats really implement what they
1:37want.
1:38Because if the Democrats continue to
1:41regulate AI and introduce wealth taxes,
1:43as......is being discussed in California
1:45, for example, if they try to push this
1:48through at every level—and we are still
1:51far from that—but if......for example, a
1:53Democrat comes along after two years of
1:56a Republican President Donald Trump and
1:58such things are pushed through, then we
2:01have a huge problem.
2:03Because as you can see here, we are
2:05already in the final phase of the big
2:08cycle.
2:10And every cycle works the same way. This
2:12is the big cycle, which lasts
2:14approximately 50 to 80 years. And when
2:17this cycle ends, the reserve currency
2:20status of the dollar ends, and the
2:22military supremacy of the USA in this
2:25world ends.
2:27The USA has actually lost every war
2:29since the Vietnam War.
2:31That is why one can already see, even
2:33with the Iran situation, that the power
2:34of the USA is rapidly waning, and this
2:36cycle always goes the same way, and you
2:38must understand it.
2:39I will briefly outline it for you, and
2:42then we will move on. In the beginning,
2:45which was after the Second World War in
2:471940, you had a new world order.
2:49The USA was the hegemon and thus
2:52replaced Great Britain. Everything works
2:55well. You have a golden age; everyone is
2:58doing better. You have prosperity;
3:00productivity is rising.
3:02But with the rising productivity, more
3:04and more debt piles up, and more and
3:07more bad loans.
3:09Then you abolished the gold standard in
3:11the 70s, and then you had a fiat money
3:13system that piled up even more bad loans
3:15.
3:16Again and again, you have small bubbles
3:18that are solved with even more money
3:20printing and even more money printing.
3:22The one percent profits from that money
3:24printing.
3:25I have been able to build a
3:26multi-million portfolio in recent years
3:28thanks to money printing.
3:30Yes, very many viewers have not been
3:32able to pay their rent in recent years
3:34because of money printing.
3:37This means you not only have incredible
3:40asset bubbles, like currently first
3:42crypto and now AI, no, you also have
3:44incredible wealth inequality because the
3:47one percent gets richer and richer and
3:49richer and the masses become
3:51impoverished, and at some point this
3:53bubble bursts, and the bubble bursts
3:55when people run out of money.
3:59That means when all the bad loans come
4:02due, when people have to sell their
4:05assets like loans, stocks, real estate,
4:07to get money, i.e., cash.
4:11Because one thing is clear, in a crisis
4:14, cash is king, and the moment people
4:17suddenly have to service their bad loans
4:20and the bubble bursts, a gigantic bubble
4:23will burst. The answer is then always to
4:26print even more money and print even
4:28more money, and that will then mean the
4:30end of the dollar. And that is the big
4:33risk. The big risk—and that is why I
4:35want to emphasize it once—is not that
4:38the AI trade is currently bursting. I
4:40will get into why it isn't in a moment.
4:43The big risk is a trigger, such as
4:46wealth taxes.
4:48If Elon Musk has to sell parts of his
4:50shares, then this bubble will burst. We
4:53are all sitting on a bubble.
4:56All your assets, your stocks, your real
4:57estate are not worth what you think they
4:59are worth.
5:01No, they are inflated. People have
5:03simply printed an incredible amount of
5:05money over the last few years and
5:06inflated them with it.
5:08If you now have to sell the whole thing
5:11because you need cash, assuming Jeff
5:13Bezos, Elon Musk, all these billionaires
5:15are really hit with wealth taxes by the
5:18Democrats, as some would like to do,
5:20then this whole bubble collapses.
5:23That is a huge danger.
5:26And the election tomorrow doesn't mean
5:29that will happen tomorrow, but there is
5:32this initiative in California to impose
5:35a one-time 5%wealth tax on the
5:37super-rich. And those are these triggers
5:40.
5:41If the super-rich then suddenly have to
5:43sell because they have to service the
5:45wealth tax, they have to sell their
5:47stocks, real estate, or whatever to get
5:49cash, because they have to pay this
5:51wealth tax in cash.
5:54And that is one of the possible triggers
5:56where the big cycle will crash.
5:58And for this major cycle, when it
6:00crashes, you need risk management. And
6:02that is crucial. If you don't have risk
6:05management, you will be hit by these
6:07once-in-a-century events; the last ones
6:10were the First World War, the Second
6:13World War, and then the new world order
6:15after 1945.
6:17This process, this process will also
6:19collide in the next 5 to 10 years.
6:22And when that happens, yes, your AI
6:25portfolio will likely go to zero, you
6:27will experience a massive hit to your
6:29entire asset allocation, and you have to
6:32be prepared for that.
6:35I prepare the members of my investor
6:37group for this by investing within the
6:39framework of the barbell strategy.
6:43This means we have a stable account, a
6:46stable portfolio, that will even profit
6:48during such a phase.
6:51In this stable portfolio, we have
6:53invested the majority of our capital,
6:56and then we have a super aggressive
6:58portfolio, a smaller portfolio, in which
7:01we invest super aggressively and then
7:03always secure the excess returns from
7:05the aggressive investment strategy into
7:08the conservative one.
7:10And that is the strategy for you in this
7:12environment where so many dangers loom,
7:14and yes, you saw it on Friday, just how
7:16many dangers are looming. In this
7:18environment, you need a good strategy. I
7:20will also say something about this in
7:23the live webinar on the 12th. November,
7:25yes, on the 12th. November is the date
7:27again. At 7 PM, I will host a 100%free
7:30live webinar for you. The link is in the
7:32video description. Feel free to sign up
7:34.
7:35100%free, and I will share something
7:38with you on the topic of risk management
7:40, how I am currently positioned, and
7:42what I have just bought, because yes,
7:44the markets are coming down. I am not
7:47saying that it is the end, it could just
7:49be the beginning, but I have a plan. I
7:52am prepared, and you need this plan too
7:54to get through this rough phase well. As
7:57you can see here, we do not have a
7:59market crash.
8:02Yes, and you need to let that sink in,
8:04because if it feels like a market crash
8:07in your portfolio, then you are not
8:09diversified, then you are not positioned
8:11correctly, then you need to sign up for
8:13the webinar, because then you still have
8:16a lot to learn.
8:17As you can see here, from the various
8:20sectors of the S&P 500,
8:23we did not have a market crash on Friday
8:25. It was not a market crash, no, it was
8:28a sector rotation.
8:30For weeks, I've been discussing in the
8:33investor group that capital is being
8:35withdrawn from the tech sector—
8:38especially in semiconductors, and now,
8:40in the last few days with the quarterly
8:43earnings week last week, also from the
8:46Magnificent 7—but it is flowing into
8:48other sectors.
8:51We played this, for example, by building
8:53up the Nobel ETF, which tracks dividend
8:56aristocrats, in our conservative
8:58portfolio.
9:00We built up the equal-weighted S&P. We
9:03built up Berkshire Hathaway.
9:05So, a lot of large ETFs and companies
9:08that are benefiting from this sector
9:11rotation.
9:13Likewise, in my more aggressive
9:15portfolio, I added McDonald's stock,
9:17which is also benefiting.
9:20These are the positions that are all in
9:21the green right now.
9:23And as you can see here, while the VIX
9:25did cross 20 and go up to nearly 24, we
9:28are far from any market panic, and you
9:30need to be aware of that.
9:33We are in a sector rotation, moving out
9:36of hyped tech stocks—especially in the
9:39semiconductor space—and into more
9:42defensive titles.
9:45We only have market panic when the VIX
9:48hits 30.
9:49We have real market panic when the VIX
9:51hits 60. And that is what could happen
9:55now.
9:56But I don't assume that it will.
9:59However, I am prepared for it, because
10:01the stock market isn't about me telling
10:04you whether the market will crash
10:06tomorrow if the Democrats win, or if the
10:09Republicans might win the Senate and the
10:11market suddenly goes through the roof,
10:14or if Trump suddenly does the impossible
10:17—squaring the circle—and manages to win
10:19both chambers, causing the market to go
10:22completely parabolic.
10:24I don't know that, but I don't have to
10:26know it either, because I am positioned
10:28in a way that I benefit in all scenarios
10:29. We also have news from Iran again.
10:33Honestly, what Trump really wants there
10:35—whether it's market manipulation,
10:37whether he really thinks he can make a
10:40deal, whether he wants to be the
10:42president who brought Iran to the good
10:44side, so to speak, or whatever—I cannot
10:46say.
10:48But this risk, combined with the risk
10:51that the Democrats win the midterms and
10:54then undermine the AI trade, heavily
10:57regulate AI, introduce new taxes, and
10:59even increase corporate taxes.
11:02Donald Trump cut taxes and thus boosted
11:05Wall Street and profits. Now we are at
11:08the peak of this boom.
11:10The Democrats want to reverse that. With
11:13the potential escalation of the Iran
11:15conflict, these are currently the most
11:17important risks.
11:18And here you can see beautifully what
11:21has been going on with the S&P 500.
11:23You can see the S&P 500 at the top,
11:26which has essentially been in a sideways
11:29trend since the summer.
11:32You might remember that in May and June
11:34, I made videos about how I was
11:35aggressively shorting the Nasdaq.
11:37Exactly for the reason that I said:
11:39midterm election years have poor
11:41performance, and there was way too much
11:43hype in the market before the midterm
11:46years. I am short. In my opinion, the
11:48excess is now out of the market. You can
11:51see here very clearly that the
11:53percentage of stocks—which you see in
11:55the bottom image—that are above the 200
11:57-day moving average, meaning they are in
11:59a bullish chart structure, has......
12:01fallen massively. When it was almost at
12:0430, at 40, I started adding the
12:07equal-weighted S&P to my conservative
12:10portfolio. You see here, we are seeing
12:12an adjustment. That is a good signal to
12:13start with. We definitely have more
12:15market breadth.
12:17The big question, however, is whether
12:19the S&P still needs to correct.
12:22At the same time, we see that during the
12:25Iran war, or since the Iran war, bond
12:27yields—the two-year on the left, the
12:29ten-year on the right—have risen
12:30massively. Now they are coming down. I
12:33think we have seen the peak in interest
12:35rates.
12:36If interest rates continue to fall, the
12:38stock market will likely rise strongly
12:39toward the end of the year due to the
12:41positive seasonality of midterm election
12:43years, that is, after the midterms.
12:46If interest rates rise again—for example
12:48, if Trump escalates in Iran and the oil
12:51price goes to $ 200—then interest rates
12:53would rise massively. That would be a
12:55truly bearish scenario for the stock
12:56market.
12:57You can see here, the oil price is
12:59slowly coming back, but honestly, the
13:01oil price is incredibly manipulated. It
13:04is a rigged game.
13:06Trump is manipulating the oil price.
13:09Trump is engaging in market manipulation
13:11. He keeps going back and forth on it. I
13:13have no idea who is trading it and how,
13:16but we don't know. Crucial for a bullish
13:19stock market is that the oil price comes
13:21down. If this here, the, um, Brent—that
13:25is, the Asian oil that is primarily
13:27affected...If this breaks out above 120
13:30, then we will have a recession.
13:34If the oil price continues to rise, it
13:35will be an incredible burden on the
13:37economy.
13:39Here we can also see very clearly what I
13:42spoke about earlier: that the S&P barely
13:44corrected, but the equal-weighted S&P
13:47had corrected very strongly, which is
13:49why I entered.
13:51Now we come to the topic that likely
13:53affects your portfolio the most.
13:56What is the outlook for technology
13:58stocks? What is the outlook for
13:59semiconductor stocks? The Nasdaq has
14:01fallen almost 10%. The technology sector
14:04fell 4.5%in one day on Friday. These are
14:07strong moves, and the semiconductor ETF
14:09has fallen a total of 30%and is now
14:12sitting exactly at the 200-day moving
14:14average.
14:15Is this the buy now, or is this the last
14:18chance to get out of the semiconductor
14:21trade?
14:23And the stock market is simply pricing
14:25that in right now.
14:27And it's super interesting that the, um
14:30, the market is pricing in right now—
14:34and this is really interesting—that
14:37semiconductor companies have reached
14:40their peak in earnings.
14:43And that is super interesting because,
14:45measured by their valuations, they are
14:47currently very cheap because they are
14:49generating incredibly strong profits.
14:51But the stock market doesn't look at the
14:52here and now.
14:54It always looks 3 to 18 months ahead,
14:56and the market is currently pricing in
14:59that the peak of earnings will occur in
15:02the next 3 to 18 months—meaning that it
15:05is now—and that profits will fall. And
15:08because profits are going to fall, the
15:11stocks are now at their earnings peak
15:14and it is no longer a good opportunity
15:17to buy them.
15:19And now we see that the hyperscalers—
15:21the Magnificent 7, Google, Meta,
15:24Microsoft—they have all said they will
15:27continue to invest an incredible amount
15:30of money in AI because they assume that
15:33the investments...and as you can see
15:35here, free cash flow is negative, but
15:38they assume these investments will
15:41already be positive by 2028.
15:45And we also see this with, for example,
15:47the fact that they have entered into
15:49almost 600 billion in payment
15:51obligations for computing power over the
15:54coming years, from which, of course, the
15:56hyperscalers function. And the
15:58hyperscalers also fell massively on
16:00Friday.
16:01And here you can see that the market is
16:03currently acting irrationally, because
16:05it makes no sense for the hyperscalers
16:07to fall and the AI trade to be over,
16:09even though the hyperscalers said they
16:10want to spend more money, because that
16:12goes right back into the pockets of the
16:14semiconductor companies.
16:16Now you have to consider, where is the
16:18market currently mistaken?
16:20Is it mistaken about the semiconductors
16:22or the hyperscalers?
16:24Because the hyperscalers should actually
16:26come out well and benefit from this.
16:29Even if they spend less at some point,
16:31or rather, we see here that the
16:34investments should pay off.
16:36And you always make money in the stock
16:39market—not when you describe how the
16:41world is now, but when you describe how
16:44the world will be in the next 3 to 18
16:46months.
16:48That you see it differently than the
16:50market and that you then turn out to be
16:52right.
16:52And in my view, the market is currently
16:55overreacting regarding the semiconductor
16:57sell-off.
16:59I think we will see a counter-movement
17:01here.
17:02I don't think we will see new all-time
17:05highs.
17:06I just think we have an overreaction
17:07right now.
17:09After the counter-movement, I think the
17:11semiconductor trade will be done.
17:14Then the sector rotation continues, and
17:16the Magnificent 7 become very
17:18interesting. Then the second phase of
17:21the AI trade begins. These are the
17:23stocks that don't profit from the
17:26bottleneck, but rather those that
17:28benefit from the application of AI,
17:31meaning they can expand their profits
17:34and margins through AI. And I will be
17:37presenting some of these stocks in the
17:39webinar on the 12th.
17:41November. So it is worth signing up.
17:45Why I don't think the AI theme is over
17:47yet, we can see here.
17:50You can simply see how fast, um, how
17:53long these companies took, different
17:56companies, to generate a trillion in
17:59revenue, so to speak.
18:02And you can simply see here that
18:04Anthropic achieved this by far the
18:07fastest. And it's just insane how fast
18:11this growth is happening here. And it
18:15used to take much longer, as you can see
18:17with the other companies.
18:19And because we have such fast growth and
18:22, in part, Anthropic is even making
18:24money, it is not true that it is just a
18:27bubble.
18:29At the same time, the hyperscalers, the
18:31Magnificent 7, are continuing to spend
18:33money.
18:34Even if one were to go bankrupt, which
18:36could certainly happen, or Open AI–I
18:38actually think that if an Open AI goes
18:40bankrupt, Anthropic looks quite good,
18:42especially if they manage to get their
18:44IPO through. But even if they spend less
18:47money, then, um, it still doesn't mean
18:49that they, i.e., the Magnificent 7, are
18:52still spending money right now, and
18:54that's what the semiconductor ETF lives
18:57on.
18:58And what we see here is that technology
19:00stocks have now slowly reached very
19:03attractive valuations again.
19:06And if I can acquire technology stocks
19:08at such interesting valuations, then it
19:10is of course possible that we will still
19:12see a final sell-off and get slapped in
19:14the face, which would actually be good
19:16for me, because then I would have a
19:18really nice buy signal.
19:20But in my view, the AI stocks have now
19:22become more interesting and attractive.
19:25We see here, using the example of the
19:28dot-com crash, that the sector rotation
19:31happens first. That means, first,
19:34technology is sold off.
19:36It then switches into, um, defensive
19:39sectors like healthcare, utilities,
19:41exactly the same thing we are seeing now
19:44, consumer staples.
19:47And when the bear market really comes,
19:49the crash comes, then everything falls.
19:53But in my opinion, we will not see an
19:56exact repeat of the dot-com crisis. I
19:59think that the cycles are moving much
20:01faster this time.
20:03I think we will increasingly see these
20:05quick 10, 20%corrections, which are then
20:07repeatedly bought back with V-shaped
20:10recoveries because the progress and
20:12development in AI is so fast.
20:15And now, having shed light on the risks
20:17, let's move on to the positive aspects
20:19.
20:21We are seeing an incredibly strong
20:23seasonality in midterm election years,
20:26because as soon as the election risk is
20:29over and the uncertainty is gone, it
20:32really doesn't matter who won. Usually
20:35not the president's party, but the other
20:38party. But after that, the stock market
20:40almost always rises.
20:42This means it would truly be
20:44unprecedented if there were no positive
20:46development, no year-end rally now.
20:49And which stocks will benefit most from
20:51the year-end rally, and what risk
20:53management I'm using to enter, I will
20:54discuss on the 12th.
20:56November. Link is in the video
20:58description below.
21:00So, what we'll take a quick look at now
21:03is liquidity and the economic cycle,
21:05because that's incredibly important for
21:08assessing how things might continue, as
21:10liquidity and the economic cycle always
21:13move with a time lag, and when liquidity
21:15rises, the price of a stock rises.
21:19You can think of it this way: the price
21:22of a stock, or the valuation of a stock
21:24, is always the price and the earnings.
21:27Right. And now a stock might rise, for
21:30example, because liquidity increases and
21:33there is more money available. And when
21:36liquidity grows faster than the economy
21:38, this excess liquidity ends up in the
21:40financial market. That is the first
21:42phase of the cycle.
21:44It started in 2023. The second phase of
21:47the cycle, however, is that the economy
21:49picks up. As you can see here, that
21:51begins later. And when the economy picks
21:53up, earnings rise, meaning profits
21:56increase, and suddenly you have a price
21:58that often remains stable while profits
22:01rise, and we are seeing now that stocks
22:03are becoming cheaper, which makes it
22:06interesting to buy stocks again.
22:10And the big question now is: will we get
22:12a recession next year, e.g., because the
22:14Democrats regulate AI and AI is the only
22:17driver currently supporting the economy
22:19, or because interest rates have been
22:21hiked and oil is having a restrictive
22:23effect on the economy?
22:26If we get a real recession, will we have
22:29a bear market now, or will we only get a
22:31slight dip in which the central bank
22:33expands liquidity again?
22:37I can even imagine that after the
22:40sell-off on Friday, financial conditions
22:43have tightened so much that we no longer
22:46need a rate hike in December.
22:50And here you can see that global
22:51liquidity has been rising and rising and
22:54rising since 2023.
22:55But you can also see from the
22:57three-month rate that the momentum is
22:59fading.
23:00This means you can see that over 3
23:02months, global liquidity growth is now
23:04only 5.2%.
23:08And because we have such strong economic
23:11growth, we are not currently seeing a
23:13broad risk-on sentiment.
23:15We are not seeing any rallies in the
23:17crypto market. We simply have limited
23:20liquidity. We don't have a liquidity
23:23bear market like in 2022.
23:25That means we won't see a bear market
23:27right now, but we also don't have enough
23:30liquidity for the entire market to rise
23:33significantly as a whole. That is why we
23:36currently have to be selective. If you
23:38want to achieve excess returns right now
23:41, it will only happen selectively in
23:43individual sectors. That is why we are
23:45seeing this sector rotation now.
23:47In my opinion, however, the AI trade
23:49will soon become active again because
23:51investors are realizing that, hey, AI
23:52companies are making an incredible
23:54amount of money.
23:57The Magnificent Seven have said they
23:59will continue to invest money in AI.
24:03Therefore, the cycle is not over yet and
24:05there is another round to go.
24:09You can see very clearly here that while
24:11liquidity is at a very high level, the
24:14growth rates of liquidity remain weak.
24:18And what counts is not the absolute
24:19level of liquidity, but the additional
24:21liquidity that is coming in.
24:23And that is why, for example, I sold all
24:26my crypto positions in the Alpha
24:28Portfolio, because I don't expect such a
24:31strong movement in crypto at the moment
24:33. The big problem we have is both the US
24:36itself, which is a risk again; the US is
24:39spending massive amounts of money and
24:42accumulating incredible debt.
24:45The Democrats could slow down this debt
24:48, however, because if the Democrats have
24:51a majority in Congress, they could
24:53hinder the debt ceiling, which will be
24:56discussed again at the end of this year
24:59.
25:01That means they could, just to get back
25:03at the Republicans, ensure that the debt
25:06doesn't simply continue to grow.
25:09Then we would have less liquidity.
25:12At the same time, we have a problem
25:14where both the US and companies are
25:17taking on debt simultaneously, meaning
25:19massive debt is expanding, but we don't
25:22have enough liquidity right now.
25:25That is the status as of now. The
25:27crucial question is whether liquidity
25:29will be expanded in the next 3 to 18
25:31months. And I think we have a good
25:33chance of that.
25:34We see here, regarding the economy, that
25:38South Korean exports remain incredibly
25:41strong and that usually pulls the US
25:44economy up as well.
25:47Additionally, we see here how brutally
25:50Korea is exporting semiconductors.
25:54And I think that for this reason,
25:56because the fundamentals are still so
25:58convincing, the stock market will soon
26:00wake up and say, wait a minute, the AI
26:02trade has one more round left, and then
26:04the final round of the AI trade will be
26:06played out.
26:08We can see how heavily the economy
26:10depends on AI in this chart.
26:12Ultimately, it is really only the topic
26:15of AI currently holding up the US
26:17economy, and I think the rest of the US
26:20economy is actually already in a
26:23recession, but it is being kept afloat
26:26because of AI.
26:28And the two possibilities right now are
26:30, either the central bank cools the
26:33whole thing down, then we get a
26:34situation like in 2000, where the
26:36central bank drained liquidity during a
26:39boom.
26:41That is a scenario that would be super
26:43bearish, or the central bank will inject
26:46more liquidity, and that is the scenario
26:48I am assuming.
26:51However, we must say that financial
26:54conditions have tightened, and this
26:57tightening of liquidity will put a dent
27:00in economic growth.
27:02And we are feeling that right now.
27:04If Trump ends the Iran war now, perhaps
27:07also the Ukraine war, so that the oil
27:09price goes down and interest rates also
27:12go down, then we will get off with a
27:14black eye.
27:16The stock market is currently pricing in
27:18that black eye. What the market is not
27:20currently pricing in is that liquidity
27:22continues to tighten.
27:25So if you say that liquidity will
27:27continue to tighten, the Fed will
27:29continue to raise interest rates and we
27:31will not get a flood of liquidity, then
27:34you have to invest incredibly cautiously
27:36because then the market as a whole will
27:39have difficulties.
27:42But if you say the market—uh, liquidity
27:44—will be expanded, we will not get any
27:46interest rate hikes because the economy
27:49has already been slowed down enough, the
27:51economy has already taken enough stress
27:53.
27:55You can see, for example, here that when
27:57financial conditions tighten, inflation
28:00is also reduced with a two-month delay.
28:04That means if the economy is slowed down
28:07now—we have many parts of the USA that
28:10are already in a recession, only the
28:12strong AI spending is still fueling
28:15inflation—but if less is coming in
28:17everywhere now, then less inflation
28:20should emerge and thus more room for the
28:22US central bank to inject liquidity. One
28:26must never forget that the USA has a 2
28:28trillion deficit and that must be
28:31monetized.
28:33Here you can see that we currently just
28:35have very little excess liquidity and
28:37that is why I am very cautious. If we
28:39look at where we are in the cycle now,
28:41in my opinion, we are still in phase 4.
28:45That is the last phase of the economic
28:47cycle.
28:48And how it continues is that first, as
28:51you can see here, interest rates hit a
28:54peak. That is where we are in my opinion
28:56right now. I think we have reached a
28:58peak in interest rates. Then interest
29:00rates fall. That is why I have also
29:02partially bought bonds. Then, when
29:04interest rates fall, stocks usually run
29:07for a while longer.
29:09Then the stocks reach their peak. I
29:12would expect that sometime around early
29:142027. Early to mid-2027 and then the
29:17stocks also fall and finally, the
29:20commodities reach their peak.
29:23What I do believe, however, is that
29:25cycles are moving faster, because with
29:28AI and increasing speed, we are seeing
29:30faster cycles.
29:33We see that retail investors are already
29:35very fearful.
29:37But we also see that retail investors
29:39are very heavily invested.
29:41We see that retail investors are very,
29:44very bearish, but we see that they are
29:46still heavily invested.
29:49We see that the professionals are rather
29:51bullish and optimistic. This means I
29:54think we have a dip right now.
29:57I think it will be bought up and then,
30:00sometime in the coming months, we will
30:03experience a massive crash.
30:06And if you want to be prepared for that
30:08, if you want to understand how it works
30:10with the major cycle.
30:13As I said, we always discuss the small
30:15three-to-seven-year cycles, but the big
30:18cycle that breaks every 50 to 100 years
30:21—actually 80 to 100 years—if you want to
30:24be prepared for that and gear up for the
30:26year-end rally, then sign up.
30:30On the 12th.
30:31November is the date.
30:34At 7 PM we will discuss the whole thing
30:37, how it moves into the next phase, how
30:40I am playing it, and why I assume the
30:43market is currently mistaken about
30:46semiconductors and why I bought this
30:49pullback.
30:52So the most important thing is, the
30:55market assumes the Republicans will lose
30:58tomorrow, the Democrats will win the
31:01midterms tomorrow, and that the
31:03Republicans will lose.
31:05That is bearish for the stock market
31:08because of the Democrats 'initiatives to
31:11raise taxes, regulate AI, and also
31:14increase overall taxes in the US,
31:17meaning on corporations and the wealthy
31:19.
31:20It slows down the economy and is also
31:22bad for the cycle.
31:24And because we are at the end of this
31:26major cycle, such a trigger, if you
31:29really get fat corporate taxes or heavy
31:31taxes on individuals, can be a huge
31:33problem.
31:35At the same time, we see this historical
31:38pattern that the stock market has always
31:40risen incredibly after the election.
31:45And that is why I would not be too
31:47bearish now, but would definitely
31:49position myself positively, while at the
31:51same time maintaining a cash position.
31:54And how you can do all of that is what
31:56we will discuss on the 12th.
31:58Go into the description of this video
32:01now and sign up.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of Morgen sind die MIDTERMS – die Börse macht einen FEHLER! by Balthasar Becker, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 4,995 words across 801 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.