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Mit Sportwetten Geld verdienen – Was funktioniert wirklich und was nicht! — Transcript

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0:00Because in the end, the deciding
0:02question isn't who is going to win the
0:04game today, but the real question we
0:08always have to ask ourselves in sports
0:10betting is: where does my mathematical
0:12advantage actually lie? Yes, a tipster
0:15program says play this because I tell
0:17you to, but it doesn't give you exactly
0:19where the fair odds are or how probable
0:21it actually is. Which bookie is now
0:23above this value, yes? Instead of "I
0:25think I know," blah blah blah, if we
0:28look at the betting industry: the
0:30betting industry doesn't have a classic
0:33gut feeling, they are selling you
0:36betting odds that are subject to a
0:38probability, and then there are
0:40customers who understand that a bit,
0:43who get involved with the topic, and
0:46they say: "No, I don't want this
0:48customer." Even though I spent a lot of
0:50money to win the customer, I don't want
0:52the customer anymore. They will block
0:55and limit them.
0:56>> Yes, you just can't plan that. It is an
0:59illusion that you can have any sort of
1:00predictability with sports betting.
1:02Unfortunately, they don't have a clue.
1:05They have never placed a bet themselves
1:07, they have never learned this
1:08technique, but they want to share their
1:10personal opinion here. In the public
1:13eye, is it actually easy to make money
1:15with sports betting? Today, I want to
1:19use this video to discuss six possible
1:23approaches in connection with sports
1:27betting. And before we start, I have a
1:30huge favor to ask of you. You are one
1:33of the few lucky ones who are watching
1:36this video right now. Please leave a
1:40like here, subscribe to my channel if
1:43you haven't done so yet, and actively
1:46participate in this video. Feel free to
1:51write your thoughts and comments below
1:54this video, because this video sheds
1:56light on everything that exists in
1:59connection with sports betting, and we
2:02will go through all the possibilities
2:05and. With a very high probability, we
2:09will then recognize which category you
2:12find yourself in, and you will get
2:14honest answers from me on the subject
2:17of sports. Betting and what is actually
2:20going on in the background here,
2:26because in the end, the deciding
2:27question isn't who is going to win the
2:29game today, but the real question we
2:33always have to ask ourselves in sports
2:35betting is: where does my mathematical
2:37advantage actually lie? And many people
2:41don't understand that. 99%out there
2:44don't understand this difference. Those
2:48who have just been betting blindly on
2:50sports so far have never asked
2:52themselves the question: how are odds
2:54actually created? Do they even have,
2:57what is an advantage anyway? I just
2:59have a feeling, I just want to be right
3:02, I just want to hit the mark. And how
3:05the story ends for most people who do
3:08it that way is common knowledge. Yes,
3:12which means the media reports quite
3:13dutifully on it. Oh, I lost my house
3:15again. Oh, I lost all my money again.
3:17Oh, I was in prison. Yes, I have a
3:20gambling addiction. We know these
3:22stories, right? But so that we can
3:26categorize this a bit better, I have
3:29six different situations here that I
3:32would like to discuss with you. Yes,
3:36let's start with situation 1. Sports
3:40betting based purely on gut feeling.
3:42That is actually a method that still
3:46prevails. Most people have that, after
3:49all. Which means they bet based on
3:50their gut feeling here. They believe
3:53they know a team. They believe they are
3:56the team's biggest fan. They have
3:59studied these teams. Um, as well as the
4:03opposing team. They believe that a
4:07result from the past reflects the
4:10future. and then look for justification
4:15through many parameters to place a bet
4:18at all. And that, um, sounds logical,
4:22doesn't it? Meaning for many, this is
4:25actually standard practice here. How do
4:28you do it? Look inside yourself. How do
4:30you approach sports betting? Um, do you
4:33look at statistics or do you just look,
4:36if the odds are low, then I'll take
4:39them, because that situation will come
4:41to you. Um, tell me, write in the
4:45comments, how do you proceed? And the
4:48problem is, what does this approach
4:51actually have to do with a mathematical
4:54advantage? Yes, the answer is
4:56unfortunately absolutely nothing. Yes,
4:59and the issue is that exactly this is
5:02where the problem starts, because if we
5:05look at the betting industry, the
5:08betting industry doesn't have a classic
5:12gut feeling, yes, it sells you betting
5:15odds that are subject to a probability.
5:20So now we have the word probability in
5:21the room for the first time. Yes, a
5:25layman says, I think I know, odds don't
5:27matter, it'll work out. Yes, just a
5:30guess. And suddenly we have the betting
5:33industry here. The betting industry
5:36doesn't say, I think I know, it's just
5:39a guess, but the betting industry, the
5:42various bookmakers, the various odds
5:44providers occupy themselves with the
5:47fundamental question of how likely
5:50something is and then try to sell you
5:53odds, which are a probability, at a
5:55value. That is the business model of a
5:58betting provider and the general public
6:01doesn't get it. Yeah, they just start
6:04playing and in the end, they're going
6:05to lose a lot of money. And we see that
6:08all the time. We see it, for example,
6:11in self-experiments on YouTube. Yeah,
6:15there's "I tested my betting strategy
6:18XY for a week and this is my conclusion
6:21." Yeah, what is the conclusion? They
6:24have no idea what they're doing here.
6:26Yeah, they have no idea about
6:28probabilities, no idea about bankroll
6:30management, no idea about variance.
6:34Ultimately, that’s the end result of
6:35most of these experiments. "Oh my God,
6:38I lost money again and oh, sports
6:41betting is evil.""You can't win money
6:44with sports betting, it's all just
6:46gambling.""You don't have a
6:48mathematical edge here, blah blah blah.
6:50" Um, that's just very short-sighted,
6:53or even certain gambling researchers
6:55who say: "Oh, you just need luck to win
6:57at sports betting." That statement is
7:00also fundamentally wrong, because
7:02ultimately, even those studies that are
7:05out there. "Oh, I'll have people bet
7:07against each other." Um, I'll get a few
7:10laypeople who have absolutely no clue
7:13about this industry. Then I'll get a
7:16few sports experts, yes, who might know
7:18the teams, but also have no idea about
7:20the betting industry, and I'll let them
7:22bet against each other. Yeah, what do
7:25you think the end result will be? In
7:26both cases, they all just have an
7:29opinion. Yes, and the end result will
7:32always be the same in both cases: they
7:34will lose money because they don't
7:37understand the betting industry. And
7:39that is exactly what over 90%to 95%out
7:43there do. And in the end, that is only
7:48half the truth. Yeah, that's just
7:52sugarcoating or badmouthing, whatever
7:55you want to call their perception. It
7:59has nothing to do with reality, nothing
8:00to do with the betting industry, and
8:02nothing to do with the fact that there
8:03are also other people who are very
8:05successful with sports betting. And
8:07that is exactly the problem. Yeah. Um,
8:14so my conclusion on technique number
8:17one is basically that it is extremely
8:19difficult to be profitable long-term if
8:22you just have a gut feeling, if you
8:24insist solely on your opinion, and
8:27place a bet based on feelings. But we
8:31have the same thing with technique
8:33number two. It's still all about the
8:35approach. Technique number two is, for
8:38example, trading on betting exchanges,
8:41yes, where I simply open a trade based
8:44on a feeling and then close it again
8:47without any mathematical basis. Yes,
8:50meaning I enter a trade, hope the odds
8:53move in a certain direction, and then
8:56exit the trade again. Yes, that's the
8:58nice thing about it. When trading, we
8:59can exit at any time. Yes, you could
9:02essentially compare it to a cash-out
9:04feature, which is the case with certain
9:06betting providers. And ultimately,
9:09however, it comes back to the fact: can
9:12I beat the betting industry? Can I even
9:16make a profit here at all? And where
9:20exactly is my mathematical edge? In
9:24most cases, it doesn't exist, because
9:27the exchange, for instance, is very
9:29precise, very accurate, very efficient,
9:33and it is extremely difficult to
9:35generate profits solely on betting
9:38exchanges. Yes, my conclusion here is
9:43also that trading based on a feeling
9:46carries no mathematical advantage. In
9:50the long run, you will still suffer
9:53losses. Yes, because you are simply
9:56unable to generate the vig, which is
9:59typically between 3 and 5 percent. That
10:03is yet another disadvantage, and if the
10:06strategy itself has no mathematical
10:09edge because you are acting based on a
10:11feeling, then mathematically and
10:14financially, you will crash and burn.
10:18That is simply the reality. So, what
10:24should I do now? Meaning, if I want to
10:29pursue the topic of sports betting, in
10:32what direction should I think or align
10:34my actions? So, if that isn't enough to
10:39beat the industry, then there are, let
10:42me suggest a few things, a few
10:45interesting models that work, that
10:48function from a mathematical
10:50perspective. So, not functioning on an
10:54emotional level, but purely on a
10:56mathematical level. And now we suddenly
10:59have to change our perspective. We are
11:03still talking about sports betting, but
11:06we now have a different approach, and
11:08one technique I want to discuss with
11:11you is matched betting. Ever heard of
11:14it? What actually is matched betting?
11:17Ultimately, it is the umbrella term for
11:20the situation where betting providers
11:23give us, for example, a welcome bonus
11:26when opening an account. Did you know
11:30that? Yes, meaning every betting
11:32provider is generous enough to give
11:34away money here. Yes, if I deposit €
11:36100, I get a € 100 bonus, for example
11:38, or a reload bonus. Yes, if I haven't
11:41played in a while, for instance, the
11:43bookmaker gives us a so-called reload
11:45bonus. I deposit money and get an extra
11:50bonus, and this financial bonus they
11:53give us is suddenly a mathematical
11:55advantage for us. That means we can
12:00work with a sum of money here that we
12:02didn't have before. Of course, we also
12:05have certain criteria here that we must
12:07meet. For example, we have to build up
12:10a certain betting volume, and there's
12:12time pressure, meaning we can only earn
12:14it within a certain time. Um, but
12:18basically, the fact that a bookmaker
12:21offers you a bonus, a welcome bonus, is
12:25the first time the approach can be a
12:29mathematical one. Yes, there are
12:33possibilities where I can, for example,
12:36play a bonus to my advantage. Be it in
12:40the form of betting on all outcomes
12:42with different bookmakers, or simply
12:45trying to meet the wagering
12:47requirements with proper bankroll
12:50management, but we are still working
12:52with a mathematical advantage that
12:55arises from this bonus money. And thus,
13:01for the first time with this approach,
13:04with this way of thinking, we have a
13:07financial advantage that we can now use
13:10for ourselves. And most people don't
13:16even know how it works or that it works
13:18at all. And they lack the idea and the
13:22understanding of how one could proceed
13:26here. If you take bonus money along
13:30with your deposit and then just bet
13:32haphazardly, the probability of losing
13:36both your deposit and the bonus is very
13:39high. That is actually what the
13:41bookmaker would prefer. Um, because
13:44they actually want to win you over as a
13:47new customer with this promotion and
13:50simply open up this opportunity with
13:53this bonus. The next technique I want
13:56to bring to your attention that exists
13:59on the market, which also works purely
14:02from a mathematical perspective, is the
14:05topic of surebets. Have you heard of
14:07that before? A surebet is effectively
14:10an English term that means a certain
14:13bet. Yes, what is a certain bet? What
14:16are we talking about here? Are we
14:17talking about me manipulating a game so
14:20that it definitely ends a certain way,
14:22like a fixed game? No, that is not it.
14:27A so-called surebet, a certain bet, is
14:31a fact that bookmakers often have
14:37different opinions on how a game might
14:40end. Yes, that means that different
14:42odds exist, and if these discrepancies
14:45between the individual bookmakers for
14:48the respective situations are too large
14:51, then I can use them to my advantage.
14:54Yes, that could be, for example. One
14:56bookmaker says, for over 2.5 goals,
14:59I'll offer you, for example, odds of
15:022.20. Another says, another bookie for
15:05under 2.5 goals, I'll offer you, for
15:07example, odds of 2.20, and if I were to
15:10bet money on both, € 1,000 on one
15:14side, € 1,000 on the other side, yes,
15:16then I just let the teams play. I don't
15:17care whether it ends up being over or
15:19under. I would definitely be right
15:21somewhere, yes, because I bet on all
15:23possibilities, and the decisive factor
15:26is that I get back more than I staked.
15:29And you can take that to perfection.
15:31You can do that with the most diverse
15:33odds. Yes, that means you have to learn
15:36a bit how it works, how to properly
15:38split the stakes, and how to find all
15:40these situations. But here, too, the
15:43action step is again a purely
15:45mathematical aspect. We no longer ask
15:48ourselves, who is playing against whom?
15:51What is my opinion? How did they play
15:54last time? Completely irrelevant. Here,
15:57the focus and concentration are purely
16:00on the fact that betting providers
16:02offer different betting situations and
16:04odds. And a misconception that is also
16:09being spread by so-called experts in
16:12the media—yes, I call them wannabe
16:14experts—is, oh, you rarely find those
16:16, that's maybe the case every now and
16:19then. That is not true. They have never
16:22really dealt with this topic. We have
16:24programs on the market where we can,
16:27for example, compare over 400 betting
16:30providers worldwide simultaneously. And
16:34at any given moment, I often have 12 to
16:3715 million such betting situations; you
16:41have to imagine that, between 12 and 15
16:44million such situations. So we are not
16:48talking about something that happens
16:49once in a while or so. But why is that
16:51actually possible? Why are there so
16:54many different so-called surebet
16:57situations on the market? Well, you
17:00have to understand, in sports betting,
17:05we often don't just have one odds
17:08provider. You have to understand, a
17:11betting provider buys their odds. Most
17:14of them don't even create the odds
17:15themselves. Did you know that? Yes, you
17:18go to your bookie and believe they
17:19create the odds themselves. But that is
17:21not the case. That means, there are
17:25various so-called odds suppliers who
17:27employ people in the background to
17:30determine probabilities for the most
17:33diverse betting situations. And the
17:37betting provider signs contracts with
17:40these companies and then also has the
17:43option, um, to build their own key—
17:46that is, their so-called margin—into
17:49these odds. Yes, that is their own
17:52software running in the background. And
17:55now there are all sorts of different
17:57providers on the market, meaning those
17:59that calculate these odds and the free
18:02market as well, which is what's really
18:04interesting. We have, for example,
18:06betting exchanges, we have Asian
18:08betting providers, for instance, who
18:10don't ban or limit any customers. And
18:12now they compete against each other
18:15permanently all day long with millions
18:17of odds, every single day with hundreds
18:20of thousands of betting games,
18:22situations, and betting situations in
18:24general. And due to the fact that it
18:30isn't as clear here as, for example,
18:32with roulette or the lottery. Yes, the
18:35probability there is very, very clear
18:38because the game was created that way.
18:42With sports betting, it's different
18:44because we have a sporting event, and
18:47these sporting events are then
18:49perceived differently by many different
18:52entities in terms of probability, and
18:55that's how these extreme odds
18:57differences arise, which you can then
18:59use to your own advantage. And here,
19:03only mathematics and betting odds count
19:06, and nothing else. Who is playing
19:08against whom is completely irrelevant.
19:11Let's also talk a bit about the
19:13disadvantages that these so-called bets
19:16entail, or the topic of professional
19:18betting in general. If you engage in
19:22professional betting, then sooner or
19:25later you will receive, uh, an honorary
19:28award from a bookmaker. An honorary
19:32award—that is something only the top
19:34players in the world get. A losing
19:37player does not get that. You should
19:40definitely secure this award from your
19:43bookie. Yes, what kind of award is that
19:46exactly? What kind of award are we
19:47talking about? Do I get a certificate
19:50or what is it? Do I get a medal from my
19:52betting provider? Yes, you get a
19:55certificate, and this certificate you
19:57receive is called a customer limitation
19:59. But Daniel, wouldn't I be banned then
20:03? Then I can't bet anymore. Yes, that
20:05may be. But that is the greatest award
20:09you can get from a betting provider. So
20:12, here is my call to you. Have you
20:14already received this award from every
20:16betting provider? Have you received the
20:19message from the trader team: "Oh, our
20:21book department has determined that we
20:24would like to exclude you from all our
20:26offers.""You can still log in with us,
20:30but our stake limit has been adjusted
20:32for you and possibly reduced to one
20:33cent." Have you received that from
20:36everyone yet? When you get that, look
20:39back there, look, enjoy it, make it fun
20:42for yourself, and turn it into a
20:44project. Every time you get a
20:49limitation, you should print it out and
20:51hang it on the wall. I actually expect
20:56more from you, that you eventually
20:59manage to get banned and limited at
21:02every single bookmaker. If you haven't
21:05achieved that yet, then you can still
21:07keep betting. You can still keep
21:10applying these strategies. So it's not
21:14even a disadvantage, but actually an
21:17honorary award, the highest one you can
21:19get. Let's be honest with ourselves,
21:21what is the alternative? If I don't get
21:24this award from the bookie, saying "oh,
21:25we don't want you as a customer anymore
21:27," then the bookie is simply earning
21:29way too much from you. Yes, then you
21:32are simply still too lucrative for them
21:34, because betting providers cannot
21:36handle winning players, even though
21:38they offer us their odds of their own
21:40free will. It's not like we manipulate
21:43a player or a game or anything, we just
21:45look at what odds they offer, and if we
21:47use them, the betting providers can't
21:49think of anything else to say than "oh,
21:51the customer won, I don't want him." Oh
21:54, he is looking closely at what odds we
21:56have here. Oh, he is engaging with the
21:58topic, because in the end, that is
22:00actually the goal. What is the goal
22:03from a player's perspective when it
22:05comes to sports betting? From a
22:07player's perspective, the goal is not,
22:09"oh, I'll lose everything I own."
22:13Rather, the player's perspective is
22:15that I make decisions, place money on
22:17them, and get more back than I put in.
22:21Because why else would I be involved in
22:23sports betting? Let's be completely
22:27honest, yes, the 95, 96, 97%who don't
22:29really engage with it, yes, they are
22:32unfortunately the victims of this
22:34industry, yes, we will always hear
22:36reports about them. And the others, the
22:41other 5%, yes, you have to make it your
22:44hobby to collect these awards, and um
22:47accordingly here, if you manage to do
22:52that, yes, to get 20 awards, and you
22:54have a wall like I have behind me, then
22:56call me, then I'll come by and do an
22:58interview with you. Yeah, right? Then
23:01we can also show that to the public.
23:04Yes, it's especially interesting, for
23:05example, uh, how long did it take you
23:07until you were banned and limited
23:09everywhere? Yes, that would also be
23:11quite interesting. So, if you manage
23:12that, get in touch with me. I will come
23:15to you personally, drive wherever you
23:17live. I will visit you personally, if
23:20you want that of course, yes, and do an
23:22interview with you. Which betting
23:25providers you were banned and limited
23:27by from 20 providers, if you managed
23:28that, as I said, feel free to contact
23:30me. You know, the nice thing about
23:34surebetting is that I know what I want
23:36to win before the game even starts.
23:40That means I have no surprises here. I
23:41suddenly have predictability. That is
23:44what is so highly interesting about
23:46surebetting. When odds differences
23:49exist and I split the stakes, as soon
23:51as I have placed the bets, the result
23:53is irrelevant. Yes, and I know I will
23:57either collect money from this bookie
23:59or that bookie and suddenly have
24:01something that never existed before. I
24:03suddenly have predictability. Yes, and
24:10when institutions then say, yes, yes,
24:12you cannot plan this, it is an illusion
24:14that you can have any predictability
24:17with sports betting, they unfortunately
24:19haven't got a clue. They have never
24:22played a surebet themselves, they have
24:25never acquired this technique
24:27themselves, but want to express their
24:29personal opinion in public. Yes, but
24:32with me, you ultimately learn that
24:34these strategies work, that they exist,
24:36as many of my participants have already
24:39proven here many times, that these
24:41strategies work. Let's move on to
24:45technique number 5. What else would be
24:47possible on the market? One possibility
24:52is the so-called topic of value betting
24:56. This is a technique that requires you
25:06to be able to determine a fair betting
25:09odd. Be it now at best, yes, I say over
25:16the market itself, that means that I am
25:18able, for example, to use betting
25:21providers or betting platforms that do
25:23not ban or limit a customer, where a
25:26free market exists. Because this market
25:29is very, very, very accurate, because
25:32where, for example, many, many people
25:34are active, millions of people are
25:37active, who then place money on these
25:39platforms. Um, a very accurate
25:42assessment of how likely something is
25:45arises through supply and demand on the
25:48market. And this situation, we can use
25:52as a so-called reference value, to then
25:58go on the search. Um, which betting
26:02provider is now higher than this
26:04reference value from the free market?
26:09And that is also such a big
26:11misconception that many out there
26:12misuse. Yes, Many people come along and
26:18say, oh, I have a feeling, I estimate,
26:20I think I know, blah blah blah, my team
26:22of experts, blah blah blah, yes, the
26:24statistics from the past. Based on that
26:30, I now estimate a probability, and
26:33that probability is, for example, 50%,
26:36and all betting providers, every single
26:39one of them, are above this value. Yes,
26:4350%corresponds, for example, to odds of
26:452. And now you see, the worst bookie
26:48has odds of 2.10. The best bookie has
26:51odds of 5 for the same situation. Yes,
26:55and now these people actually believe
26:57they can say, oh, the odds of 2 are
26:59what I calculated as my forecast.
27:02Therefore, every bookmaker is suddenly
27:04a value bet. And that is absolutely
27:06wrong. Yes, that is not correct. Then,
27:11in the long run, you're going to have a
27:14rude awakening if you go into things so
27:17naively and say that every bookie
27:20suddenly has value odds. Yes, that's
27:25not how value betting works, and you
27:29can assume that if you find a value bet
27:32, yes, if you find a real value bet,
27:35then 99%of the odds we find will be
27:41garbage. They are not value odds. In
27:45practice, this can look like having
27:47odds of 5 at one bookmaker. The fair
27:50value is maybe somewhere around 4.2.
27:53Yes. And all other bookmakers are below
27:564.2. 3.9, 3.8, 3.7, whatever it may be.
28:00And only one is above 4.2 with odds of
28:035. All the others are simply garbage,
28:07even though they offer the same odds,
28:09meaning they offer the same betting
28:10situation. So, I have to pronounce that
28:12correctly. And so you also have to
28:16learn that when it comes to value
28:18betting, it's not personal opinion that
28:21has value, but rather that the market
28:23provides us with an incredibly valuable
28:26job. Do you know why the market
28:28provides such an incredibly valuable
28:30job? Because ultimately, millions of
28:34people are asking themselves the same
28:35question of how likely something is.
28:39And when a lot of people ask themselves
28:41the same question of how likely
28:43something is, then there is the law of
28:45the broad masses, of the large crowd.
28:48Especially when people bet a lot, lot
28:51of money, yes, and also influence these
28:53odds. And if, for example, a broad mass
28:57bets on odds that are undervalued, then
28:59there is always a counter-pole, an
29:01opposing party, yes, which. e.g. says:
29:04"No, no, no, no, this probability, what
29:07he means by the odds, what he is buying
29:09off, um I say, thank you, it's a nice
29:11gift, it's too low," and then leverages
29:13their money against it accordingly. Yes
29:17, you just have to understand and learn
29:19, yes, that there are free market
29:21platforms here. And if, for heaven's
29:24sake, betting providers who buy odds
29:27from their odds suppliers are so naive
29:30—with all due respect, yes, we see it
29:32every single day, they are so naive—
29:35and say, yes, I just trust him, I'll
29:38just buy the odds from my odds supplier
29:41XYZ and, oh, what the free market, like
29:44betting exchanges or Asian bookmakers,
29:46say, oh, the fair odds are somewhere
29:49around two. Oh, but I'm offering odds
29:52of 2.5. Yes, what do you think will
29:56happen? Then there will be people, not
29:59just us, but millions of people who
30:01will say: "Oh, great, thanks for the 2,
30:04we'll take the 2.5, attack." Yes, if
30:07you offer your odds margin higher than
30:09the free market, then you have to
30:11expect the consequences, and there are
30:13hundreds of thousands of people who
30:15will take exactly those 2.5 odds, even
30:18though it's 2.0. And usually, even the
30:21betting providers themselves don't even
30:22understand that. That is the really
30:24fascinating part. Yes, they blindly buy
30:28odds from an odds supplier, trust the
30:31odds supplier, and then there are many
30:34people who say: "Oh, the odds are wrong
30:37. Let's say, thank you, we'll play that
30:40." What else do the betting providers
30:42themselves think of that? Oh. Ah,
30:45suddenly that's an unpleasant customer.
30:48Yes. Yes, they just played exactly that
30:51value odd. No, I don't really want them
30:53as a customer. Let's block or limit
30:55them. You get the award. That means
30:59congratulations. Yes, that means that
31:01is the only answer. Instead of these
31:02betting providers going and saying: "Oh
31:05, dear odds supplier, we are now
31:07holding you liable, because these odds
31:09were incorrectly assessed by your
31:11department and were not adjusted here
31:14and so on." Instead of holding them
31:17liable, they just punish the end
31:19customer by excluding them, which
31:21actually doesn't make any sense for the
31:23betting provider themselves if you
31:25think about it more closely. Yeah,
31:28because at the end of the day you have
31:30to imagine, a betting provider spends
31:32an incredible amount of money to win
31:33you over as a customer, right? That
31:37means stadium banner ads, jersey
31:39sponsorships, and TV commercials cost
31:42millions every year. Yes. And the odds
31:47they purchase also cost millions every
31:49year. It’s not like they charge 2
31:52euros for something like that, where
31:54they provide the odds, and then there
31:55are customers who understand it a bit,
31:57who engage with the topic or say, no, I
31:58don't want to have that customer. I
32:01spent a lot of money to acquire the
32:02customer, but I don't want to have that
32:04customer anymore. I want to ban and
32:07limit them. Yeah, it’s a very funny
32:10game, if you want to call it that, and
32:12please don’t get too upset if you get
32:14banned or limited by a bookie at some
32:17point. There are perfectly legal
32:19options here. Even if I am banned or
32:22limited by one bookie, we just move on
32:23to the others until you're banned or
32:25limited there too. There are still many
32:28ways to simply keep going. Yeah, so
32:30just make sure you get banned and
32:31limited everywhere first. If you need
32:33some advice, legal advice of course,
32:35then feel free to get in touch with me
32:37regarding that. So the topic of value
32:42betting is also an important component;
32:45you need to understand that if I find
32:48odds like 2.5 instead of 2, for example
32:50, which would be fair, I won't win
32:52every bet. Yeah, a value bet is not
32:57there so that I win every single bet.
33:00That isn't even necessary at all. And
33:03now we’re getting into a topic where
33:05you suddenly also need to learn and
33:07understand variance. And I’ve
33:10prepared a really cool, simple
33:12practical example for you. Um, you
33:16could just go ahead and take a die, yes
33:19, with six sides, just take one of
33:21those dice. And now it would be fair,
33:26if we look at it with the die, that
33:28every number is equally likely, yes, so
33:311, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Then it would be
33:33fair, if we translate that to the
33:35betting industry and calculate a
33:37betting odd, that no matter which
33:40number comes up, I always receive a
33:42sixfold payout. Yes, if I, for example,
33:45bet 10 euros on the number 1 and then I
33:48roll the die and the number 1 comes up.
33:51Then I must receive at least a sixfold
33:54payout so that I have neither profit
33:56nor loss in the long term. Yes, as you
34:00can see from this example, we suddenly
34:02start asking, oh, how likely is it that
34:04the number 1 comes up? Yes, one-sixth,
34:08for example. Oh, what does that mean in
34:11terms of probability, where is the
34:14so-called fair payout ratio here, so
34:17that I ultimately have neither profit
34:20nor loss? And now it gets interesting
34:24when I address these fundamental
34:27questions with every single betting
34:29situation, whether it's over/under, 1x2
34:32, handicap bets, or correct score, it
34:34doesn't matter, and I take that as my
34:37focus. The game doesn't matter. Who is
34:40playing against whom is completely
34:41irrelevant. It is always just about
34:43critically questioning the odds offered
34:45by a bookmaker, and you will realize
34:48that 99.99%of all the odds you see are
34:50trash from the perspective of a player
34:53who really intends to generate profits
34:55with sports betting. But the other 0.01
34:59%of all odds, which still exist in the
35:02millions across many different betting
35:05providers, allow us to generate profits
35:08accordingly. And you can try the
35:11experiment yourself. Take this: imagine
35:14you get a tenfold payout the next time
35:16you roll a one. And if you get a 2, 3,
35:204, 5, or 6, you lose your stake. And
35:23just imagine you get paid ten times
35:25your stake every time a 1 comes up. Yes
35:27, how often would you keep rolling?
35:29Roll, lost, roll, lost, roll, lost. Now
35:31you lose, for example. 20 times in a
35:35row. Yes, which is just normal variance
35:37. That is not even the problem. If I
35:41know that I get ten-to-one odds every
35:44time with a probability of one-sixth,
35:46then if you keep going, keep this
35:49streak up so that the sample size gets
35:52larger, then according to the law of
35:54large numbers, the number 1 will come
35:57up to the same extent as the numbers 2,
36:003, 4, 5, and 6. You just need a larger
36:04sample size and then it gets really
36:05interesting, because every time you hit
36:07, yes, and get that tenfold payout. For
36:11example, this hit then refinances the
36:14losses from the previous rounds and I
36:17suddenly have an advantage of four.
36:22Yeah, every single time, imagine you
36:24bet 10 € each time, and every time
36:26you win, you get 100 € back. Yes, but
36:29mathematically you're only entitled to
36:31win every sixth time. That means every
36:33time you hit, mathematically speaking,
36:36you've made 40 € profit, and the
36:39other 60 serve to refinance the lost
36:41rounds within that sprint, and that's
36:44something you have to learn to
36:46understand. Meaning, when it comes to
36:50value betting—if I relate it back to
36:52classic sports betting—it’s no
36:55longer about predicting how a game ends
36:57, but simply about buying odds that are
37:00too high. And accordingly, over a large
37:04sample size. We’re usually talking
37:06about thousands of bets here. Yes, a
37:08good initial sample size is, let’s
37:10say, about 1,000 bets. That gives you a
37:13solid benchmark for where things are
37:14heading. Yes, if you give variance time
37:17to even out, you’ll see quite clearly
37:20where the journey is going. And that is
37:25what you have to specialize in here.
37:27Yes, which means you have to learn to
37:29think big. The sixth technique, which
37:34is truly challenging—once you've gone
37:36through all that, and that's the beauty
37:38of it—imagine you’re eventually
37:40restricted or limited in value betting,
37:42you ask yourself: what’s next? There
37:45are, for example, if you live outside
37:46of Germany, platforms that are still
37:48available, though not in Germany. Where
37:51I can, for example, trade. There are
37:55platforms where I can trade, where I
37:58can buy and sell odds and, for example,
38:00take advantage of margins in individual
38:02market movements. You have to
38:05understand that probabilities change
38:08constantly. Maybe you’ve already
38:10noticed. If you watch a live game, for
38:12instance, you'll see that the odds
38:14change continuously. That means with
38:17every minute of play, with every
38:18situation, the odds change. If a team
38:20takes the lead, the odds change. As
38:23time passes, the odds and the
38:26probabilities change. And it’s no
38:29coincidence that odds shift from A to B
38:32; it follows very, very clear patterns
38:34and follows very clear conditions. That
38:38also includes time decay and how long
38:39the game lasts, because the game
38:41doesn't go on forever. Yes, a football
38:44match lasts 90 minutes plus added time,
38:47then it's over, and that allows us to
38:50use mathematics and certain models—
38:53there are various ones, whether it's
38:55the Poisson model or, um, the
38:57Dixon-Coles model, for example—to
39:00represent odds movements very well. Yes
39:07, where will the odds be if the initial
39:09odds were at XY? Where will they be?
39:12After 10 minutes, after 15 minutes, 20
39:14minutes, after 30 minutes? Yes, if a
39:17goal is scored, if no goal is scored,
39:19it can all be beautifully represented.
39:22That is the beauty of sports betting,
39:23when you understand a bit of the
39:25mathematics behind it. And if I am, for
39:28example, developing and building
39:30trading strategies, then I have to know
39:33that. Then I have to look into that
39:36topic in detail. Yes, where should the
39:39odds actually be in any given situation
39:42, at any given minute? How likely is it
39:45here again, and what is the market
39:48offering me? And only when there are
39:54deviations here do we speak of a
39:57so-called value situation during
40:00trading, where I then buy these odds
40:04and then ideally, to minimize the risk,
40:08after this advantage is gone and the
40:11odds have leveled off where they should
40:15be, I sell again at fair value. If a
40:19spread arises between these odds there,
40:22I can use that to my advantage, again
40:24in financial terms, but that is a
40:26science completely unto itself. That
40:29has nothing to do with that anymore.
40:30That’s like saying today Bayern is
40:32playing Schalke or whatever, and you
40:34say, oh, they scored five goals. Ah,
40:37yes, my gut tells me, oh, Bayern will
40:39surely win, so I’ll just buy the
40:41Bayern odds at this point in time—
40:43unfortunately, that is not enough. You
40:45have all tried an incredible amount in
40:47the past, and those who have been in my
40:50live coaching sessions, and we also
40:52cover the topic every Sunday where we
40:54trade on the exchange, for example—we
40:56have looked at an incredible number of
40:58strategies over the last few years. Um,
41:01most of them didn't work because the
41:04market itself, the odds themselves,
41:07were simply so accurate and so
41:10efficient that there was no real
41:12advantage to be had, even purely on the
41:16exchange, for example. Yes, and that
41:19was also quite an interesting
41:21experience. Yes, so when you evaluate
41:24it mathematically, um, what that looks
41:28like, yes, that is super exciting.
41:32There are indeed a few strategies that
41:34work mathematically; many participants
41:37know ones that work, but when you look
41:39at it from a purely mathematical
41:41perspective, well, there are only a few
41:44. Often, it’s the case that there is,
41:48for example, a strategy where the odds
41:50band was actually programmed
41:52incorrectly by the betting exchange
41:54from our point of view. And it is
41:57precisely this programming error that
41:59exists here that we can use to our
42:00advantage. Yes, I’ll just throw the
42:02keyword "card trading" into the room.
42:04That means those who already know me
42:06know exactly what kind of strategy that
42:08is, and I don’t need to have any idea
42:10about the game, who is playing against
42:12whom; it's completely irrelevant how
42:14they played recently. It's all a means
42:16to an end; it doesn’t matter who is
42:17playing against whom. I can apply that
42:19to any game, any game at all, provided
42:21there is a market for it. Yes, and that
42:23is what’s super exciting for me again
42:25. I am looking for situations, or
42:27rather researching situations, where
42:29the game itself is irrelevant,
42:30regardless of who is playing whom. I
42:32don’t even have to watch the game. I
42:36don’t watch any football matches to
42:39then make an emotional decision, like:
42:42"Should I enter this game now or not?"
42:45Instead, I always try to find a
42:48mathematically rational path, of course
42:50with bankroll management and the like,
42:53to see why this has a mathematically
42:56provable edge. And as long as it
42:59doesn’t have that, I don’t play.
43:03But the nice thing about it is that I
43:05can always explain why it has an edge.
43:10And if you can’t explain it, then in
43:13the end, you can only put it to the
43:15test with a sample size. Yes, that’s
43:19also the case with tipster programs. A
43:21tipster program says, "Play this
43:22because I tell you to," but it
43:24doesn’t provide you with exactly
43:25where the fair odds lie or how likely
43:27it is. Which bookmaker is actually
43:29offering value above this price?
43:30Instead, it’s just: "I think I know,"
43:33blah blah blah, and you’re just
43:35supposed to play that opinion. Then you
43:39will realize with a very high
43:41probability—if the fair odds aren’t
43:44provided, the market is ignored, and
43:47it’s not a real value price—that
43:50after thousands of bets, it all turns
43:52out to be just smoke and mirrors. Well,
43:58it's not enough that I was in the green
44:01once a month, or that I just look at,
44:04uh, 30 bets here; we are talking about
44:06thousands of bets here. That is, for
44:10example, something that is super
44:12interesting: that many of these
44:13loudmouths who were here have suddenly
44:15all disappeared from the market again.
44:17Have you ever noticed that? Today a
44:19betting program comes out. Half a year
44:21later, it's gone for good. Yeah, the
44:26answer very likely lies in the fact
44:29that, ultimately, it wasn't enough to
44:32generate profits here, especially to
44:35generate profits for my community. Yeah
44:39, and now you can ask yourself the
44:46question, uh, where do you see yourself
44:49? Do you see yourself in that category?
44:52Oh, I think a little bit of gut feeling
44:53, I'll just try it out. I'm a fan of
44:55trying a little bit here, trying a
44:57little bit there. Um, and, um, how are
45:01you doing with that? I would be
45:03interested to know. Write it in the
45:04video description for me. Yeah, are you
45:07in the red, are you in the green? Yeah,
45:09you are welcome to talk a little bit
45:11about the topic if you want. Or do you
45:14already see yourself more in the
45:16category of, I'm not leaving anything
45:17to chance anymore. I don't care about
45:20the game, who plays against whom. I am
45:23looking for a mathematical way where I
45:26can work with betting odds in a
45:28predictable manner and use them to my
45:31advantage and also understand where the
45:34bookie makes mistakes. I also
45:37understand how to find these situations
45:39. If you see yourself more in this
45:41group, then feel free to write that
45:43down for me, or perhaps you're saying,
45:45wow, I'm still in group 1 and I'm
45:46actually sick of it. Yeah. Um, I
45:50actually want to get into group 2. Well
45:53, ultimately, from my perspective, you
45:55have two options here on how to get
45:57from group 1 to group 2. One option is
46:00the hard way. The hard way is that you
46:03go ahead and say, "Um, yeah, I want to
46:05teach myself this, and I'll just try
46:08writing a bit on ChatGPT or Claude or
46:11wherever, and just ask them if they can
46:14somehow help you." And then you will,
46:18unfortunately, yeah, um, not get the
46:23right answers. Yes, we have that too.
46:25We also use ChatGPT, for example, very
46:27often when it comes to complex
46:29representations, like we do. e.g., um,
46:31having to solve situations—whether
46:34it's parlay bets that we need to hedge
46:37one after another, or whether it's
46:40basic surebets and how to hedge them—
46:42and you often have the problem where
46:45you just say: "Oh, I'll just write to
46:48ChatGPT, it knows everything," even
46:51though ChatGPT. e.g., unfortunately
46:53gives you wrong answers here. We have
46:55this every time when, for example, I
46:58develop a tool or calculator for my
47:00community, then I say: "No, you
47:02calculated that wrong." It says: "Ah,
47:04yes, I'm sorry, yes, you're right.""Yes
47:06, I calculated that incorrectly.""Ah, I
47:08will adjust that right away, because I
47:09was of the opinion blah blah blah."
47:10That means it then fantasizes here or
47:13often interprets situations into it
47:16that aren't true at all. And that is
47:20fatal if you then place absolute trust
47:24in an artificial intelligence, then
47:27because of that, for example, apply
47:30these strategies—whatever they look
47:33like for you—and then ultimately end
47:36up going home as a loser. And we see
47:41that, for example, permanently in these
47:44Zoom calls too, um, that you still need
47:46this human oversight here. You need
47:49this human control to see if the
47:51calculations are correct, if the
47:53formulas are right, if the logic behind
47:55it is correct. Yes, if I'm doing
47:58surebetting, for example, I also have
47:59to understand what I'm doing here. Yes,
48:02if I bet on all possibilities, do I
48:03understand all the betting variants?
48:05Does ChatGPT even understand that
48:06correctly? The betting variant as such,
48:09and or you just take the other path
48:14here and let someone show you. Yes, we
48:16do that together, for example. Come to
48:18me at the Sports Betting Academy, the
48:21largest educational platform in the
48:23context of sports betting in Europe,
48:25and awarded 14 times over the last 7
48:27years. So, if you ever need a
48:32educational platform that has been
48:34established on the market for many
48:37years and has already accompanied
48:39thousands of participants, and really
48:42just Google me, Google the Sports
48:45Betting Academy, Google my name, Google
48:48Daniel Winterholzinger. For over 25
48:52years, I have only done sports betting.
48:55Every day for 25 years now. Yes. and
49:01have been teaching it for 8 years now
49:04with the Sports Betting Academy. So, if
49:08you really need a contact person who
49:11truly knows this industry and won’t
49:14just promise you the moon or sugarcoat
49:17things, someone who takes player
49:20protection seriously and is socially
49:23committed to preventing losses while
49:26also showing you ways to responsibly
49:29beat this industry, then get in touch
49:32with me. Yes, because here you need
49:37knowledge. That means you get skills
49:40and competencies from me; to be able to
49:42implement what we are discussing right
49:44now, you need competencies. It’s
49:47simply not enough to just have a little
49:50bit from here and a little bit from
49:52there; I have to understand the
49:54connections in all areas. And if I want
49:57to apply the topic of, let's say,
50:00surebetting, I have to think about so
50:02many things. I have to understand, how
50:04do I find the bets? Which bookmakers
50:06are there? How can I hedge that? Can I
50:08hedge that with a bookmaker versus
50:10another bookmaker? How could I hedge
50:12that bookmaker against, for example,
50:14betting exchanges or other platforms,
50:17yes, where I suddenly have to hedge in
50:19foreign currencies. How do I calculate
50:22the whole thing, for example? Yes, um,
50:24who supports me in this? Is there
50:28anyone at all who supports me? And
50:31these are all the things that we can
50:33offer you. Yes, that means we train
50:35this together, practice it together, do
50:37it together. So, if you are interested,
50:40let's talk. Yes, there is a link from
50:43me in the video description. We can
50:45just have a casual, no-obligation chat
50:46via Zoom. Why not take this chance? You
50:49have watched this video up to this
50:51point now. If you are still with me in
50:54this video, yes, then I invite you.
50:57Let’s just talk once. The others,
50:59they all switched off earlier. Most
51:01people don't even get to this minute.
51:03Most, 90%, will not hear what we are
51:06talking about right now. And that’s
51:09why I want to get to know you
51:11personally. I want to help you. I want
51:14to show you how it can be done
51:16differently. And take this chance.
51:20Let’s talk to each other; it
51:21doesn’t cost a thing yet. Yes,
51:23let’s just have a no-obligation chat.
51:25I would just be really interested, how
51:29did you find me? Why are you actually
51:33interested in the topic the way we
51:35operate, how are you currently doing it
51:38, and how are you getting on with it?
51:40And that is something I would really
51:43love to know. And if you say afterwards
51:44that it’s not for you, that’s
51:46totally okay. Yeah, that means there's
51:48no pressure. That means if we have a
51:49conversation, there's absolutely no
51:50pressure. But I also want to show you
51:54or bring along a few examples of how I
51:56do it or how we do it in the community,
51:58and maybe it’s something where you'll
52:00say, "Hey, I’d like to be part of
52:01that, I want to be involved, I’d like
52:03that too." Yes, but just take a look at
52:07it; you have nothing to lose. You’ve
52:09already won by watching this video and
52:12getting a different perspective on
52:15sports betting from me. And yes,
52:18that’s what I wanted to discuss with
52:20you today in this really very, very
52:22extensive video, which has certainly
52:23gone on for a long time. And I want to
52:26say a huge thank you for watching until
52:28now, and I wish you all the very best
52:31from the bottom of my heart when it
52:33comes to sports betting, so that you
52:35don't lose all your money. With that in
52:37mind, take the chance and reach out to
52:40me. All the best and see you in the
52:42next video. Bye, cheers.

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