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Mi hija quiere entender el sistema financiero | Hernan Casciari | TEDxMontevideo — Transcript

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0:00Translator: Marcelo Papetti Reviewer: Maricene Crus
0:04I have a 13-year-old daughter.
0:07In 2012, during the financial crisis,
0:11when the stock markets crashed worldwide,
0:14she was five years younger, so she must have been eight or nine.
0:17We were watching the news.
0:19We were having lunch and watching the news,
0:22and a bald guy with a tie came up,
0:25an anchorman who always presented bad news.
0:28He's the one who broke the news about the tsunami and the plane that went down.
0:32And that day he said, "Breaking news,
0:35stock markets crashed worldwide."
0:37My daughter looked at me, like this, and I went pale.
0:41The guy went on and said, "Bonds' nominal prices went up
0:45due to the impossibility to sustain debt obligations."
0:48My daughter looked at me.
0:49(Laughter)
0:50"Investment banks collapsed," he said, "Shareholders are committing suicide."
0:54She opened her eyes wide and so did I.
0:57I obviously got scared because something serious was going on.
1:01My daughter Nina,
1:02who always asked me about tsunamis and planes that crashed -
1:06A tsunami was easy to explain: it's the epicenter of a thing in the sea,
1:10and then the Filipinos die - it's simple.
1:12(Laughter)
1:13She asked, "What's going on? Is it serious, dad?"
1:17And I realized I didn't have the slightest idea
1:20about how to explain to a child what was going on.
1:24An earthquake is easy to explain,
1:26but how do you explain a child the collapse of the financial system?
1:30It can't be explained, mainly because it's intangible.
1:33But since I'm very stubborn,
1:35and in my spare time I'm also a writer,
1:38I set out to do it and wrote a children's story.
1:43The following day, while watching the news,
1:46she asked me again,
1:47so I told her the story that I want to share with you now.
1:51I told Nina that once upon a time
1:55there was a very peaceful village
1:57and a man named Pepe, our main character,
2:00lived in the outskirts of the village.
2:03One afternoon, Pepe went for a walk and he felt thirsty.
2:07When he returned home, he opened a bottle of wine,
2:09and while he was drinking wine, he realized something,
2:12something that nobody had ever realized: there were no bars in the village,
2:17not a single bar.
2:19Pepe thought that if he opened a bar,
2:21he could make others happy by pouring them drinks,
2:25and that he could even make some money.
2:28He felt happy with the idea of opening a bar.
2:32That afternoon, his friend Moncho dropped by his place
2:35and gave him a great name for the bar.
2:38And everyone knows that when an idea gets a name,
2:41it begins to take off.
2:44Pepe made a list of what he needed to open the first bar in the village -
2:49Nina looked at me with her eyes wide open. The story was fine so far -
2:53Pepe realized he needed to buy tables, chairs, glasses, paint
2:57and a tethering post so his clients could tie up their horses
3:01and get into the bar.
3:03He did the math, and all of that should cost him around 10,000 coins.
3:07Of course Pepe didn't have 10,000 coins, because he was poor,
3:10but overnight he devised a way to get those 10,000 coins.
3:15He cut a thousand little pieces of paper,
3:18and he wrote on each one of them,
3:21"Coming soon: Pepe's Bar."
3:23He wrote that a thousand times.
3:25The following Sunday, after mass,
3:27he went to the village square in his best suit,
3:31and he told everyone there,
3:34"Dear neighbors, I'm opening a bar in the outskirts of the village."
3:38Everybody looked at him. Some said, "Great idea!"
3:41Pepe felt very happy with everyone's attention,
3:44and then he showed the thousand pieces of paper in his hand and said -
3:49I said to Nina, "This is important." -
3:52Pepe said,
3:53"Each one of these little papers costs 10 coins."
3:57The neighbors looked at him.
3:59"The person who buys one of these has to keep it
4:02because in one month, when I open my bar,
4:05I'll pay 12 coins for each little paper you give back to me."
4:11There were whispers all over the square.
4:14Moncho, who was the village fool, asked,
4:17"Wait Pepe! The little pieces of paper only cost 10 coins.
4:20Why would you give away two extra coins?"
4:23Pepe said, "It's not a giveaway, it is compensation.
4:26I'll compensate with two extra coins
4:29those who help me accomplish my dream of opening a bar."
4:33The mayor came up front and said,
4:36"It makes perfect sense! Well done, Pepe!"
4:40Ernesto, who was rich and knew about business, said,
4:44"I think it's a great idea."
4:46Father Ricardo, while pulling some coins from underneath his cassock, said,
4:51"That's a very Christian idea! I want some of your little papers."
4:57And everybody started buying Pepe's little papers.
5:01In such a simple way and in only one morning,
5:04Pepe got the money to open his bar.
5:06Pepe sold all 1,000 little papers among all neighbors.
5:10"I bought two," said Sabino, who was poor but optimistic.
5:13"I bought 36," shouted Quique, who was greedy and arrogant.
5:18Pepe returned home with 10,000 coins in his backpack
5:21and fell asleep thinking about his dream of opening a bar.
5:24The following day was a Monday, and Pepe traveled to town
5:28and bought wood to build a counter and bought some paint.
5:32He went back home and started working.
5:35He didn't set foot in the village square for the following four weeks.
5:40That means - I said to Nina -
5:42that Pepe had no idea about the disaster that was going to occur
5:46because of his little papers.
5:48At that point, I stopped the story,
5:50and I looked at my daughter to see if she was following it.
5:54It is important to check if children understand your metaphors,
5:57especially if it is a complex idea.
6:00She said, "Dad, this has nothing to do with what the bald guy said on TV.
6:04But it's fun. Go on!"
6:06(Laughter)
6:07So I went on.
6:08I told her what happened in the village during the first week.
6:13That Monday, the square was very crowded, much more than on an ordinary Monday.
6:19Many neighbors had spent the whole night
6:22cutting their own little papers
6:24because they had also realized that they had projects
6:28that they couldn't accomplish due to a lack of coins.
6:31Some little papers said,
6:32"Coming soon: Horacio's ice cream parlor."
6:36Other little papers said, "Soon: Carmen's beauty salon."
6:40And there were even little papers written by Moncho,
6:43with misspellings, that said,
6:46"By the end of the month, I'll get you to the Moon."
6:48(Laughter)
6:50Suddenly, people were climbing the streetlights
6:53so that other people could buy their little papers.
6:56They were climbing the water fountain to trade little papers for coins.
7:00Tuesday was even worse, and on Wednesday,
7:03it was so crowded that it was impossible to walk on the village square.
7:07The mayor, in order to keep order,
7:08had to facilitate a space in the Town Hall
7:12for the neighbors to gather
7:14and exchange the papers without destroying the square.
7:16That place was inaugurated Thursday
7:19and was given the name of "The Little Papers Hall."
7:22So by Friday, everyone who had a project
7:26had obtained the necessary coins, and they had started working.
7:30Horacio was buying milk, cream and ice for his ice cream parlor.
7:34Pepe was sawing wood for his bar.
7:38Carmen was sharpening scissors for her upcoming beauty salon,
7:41and Moncho had bought two skinny horses to get people to the Moon.
7:46(Laughter)
7:47In The Little Papers Hall there was only a group of neighbors left,
7:51the ones who had never thought about any interesting projects.
7:56The only thing these neighbors had
7:59were little papers made by other people.
8:02One of them, Ramón, complained out loud,
8:06"Gee!" he said,
8:07"Now I need coins for cigarettes, and I don't have any.
8:10A few days ago, I traded my last 10 coins for a little paper,
8:14and now I need to smoke."
8:16"Same with me," said Luis.
8:18"I want to go see a movie, but I can't."
8:20The complaints were getting louder until Sabino, who was clever,
8:25held his little paper in the air, and he said, "Let's see, guys.
8:28In three weeks, Pepe will pay 12 coins
8:32to whomever has this paper that I bought for 10 coins.
8:35I'm selling my little paper for eight coins right now!"
8:39Everyone looked at him and said, "Oh!"
8:42"It's a deal!" said Ernesto, who was rich but wanted to be richer,
8:45and he snatched the little paper from his hands for eight coins.
8:50Ramón and Luis also sold their little papers for less than 10 coins,
8:53and while one went looking for cigarettes and the other to the cinema,
8:57the other neighbors saw that this was a new way of doing business
9:01even though they had never come up with an original idea.
9:05Some of them got on the chairs and tables.
9:08They started offering all they had,
9:10and even Father Ricardo came sad from the church and said,
9:14"Dear friends, when Moncho was selling his little papers,
9:17I, as a good Christian, bought a few because he's a fool.
9:22Now, Moncho is selling them for 7 coins, and he says he'll repay 20 coins.
9:27But he's a fool, and he wants to get people to the Moon.
9:30I now need coins to fix the belfry,
9:33and nobody wants to buy his little papers."
9:36"Sorry, Father Ricardo," everybody said, "we can't buy them.
9:38That guy's never going to the Moon."
9:40So the downcast priest left with Moncho's little papers.
9:45That was the first time in many years
9:48that nobody would help him fix the church.
9:52And so the first week went on.
9:55I looked at Nina, and she told me,
9:57"Now it seems to me
9:59that this is starting to sound like what the bald guy said on TV."
10:03I said, "Of course! In the real world
10:06The Little Papers Hall is called 'Stock Market,'
10:09and the little papers have two names.
10:12In some countries they are called 'bonds.'
10:14In other countries they are called 'debt certificate.'
10:17The 12 coins that Pepe will repay when he opens his bar,
10:21or the 20 coins Moncho says he'll repay when he gets people to the Moon,
10:25are called 'nominal value bond.'"
10:28And Nina looked at me. "Ha!"
10:30(Laughter)
10:31The little girl understood. She was only eight years old!
10:34So I told her what happened in the village during the second week.
10:38Pepe's house no longer looked like a house,
10:40it looked like something else.
10:42There was a wooden bar in the dining room.
10:44The bathroom was divided in two: one for ladies and one for gentlemen.
10:48The walls were half painted in navy blue,
10:51and Pepe was thrilled with his progress.
10:57Since Pepe hadn't been to the village yet,
11:00he didn't know that everyone's life had turned into a huge mess,
11:03with little papers coming and going with different prices and owners.
11:07Even the mayor, after talking to his assistant,
11:12decided to jump on board.
11:14One Tuesday morning, the mayor spoke from the balcony with a megaphone:
11:19"Neighbors, the square was destroyed during the little papers' frenzy.
11:23I need to raise funds
11:25to repair the damaged streetlights,
11:28to repair the water fountain and to buy me a motorcar.
11:32From now on, I'm selling 1,000 government little papers."
11:37"How many coins?" asked Sabino.
11:40"No coins!" said the mayor,
11:42"My little papers cost one horse.
11:44When the water fountain and the streetlights are fixed,
11:47and I have bought me a motorcar, I'll pay two horses for each little paper.
11:52The government little papers are now for sale.
11:55Buy them before it's too late!"
11:57The mayor's little papers sold out in record time.
12:00Everybody in the village gave their horses to the mayor,
12:04and from that day on, all the chores were done on foot.
12:09In the meanwhile, the trading of little papers was still rising,
12:13and there weren't enough pencils to write down who owned what.
12:18Some little papers were very sought out, like Pepe's,
12:21who worked day and night building his bar.
12:25But other little papers were unwanted,
12:27like Moncho's,
12:29because his device for getting people to the Moon, for the moment,
12:32was only a wagon and two horses.
12:35Nobody believed that it'd ever take off.
12:39Ernesto, the rich neighbor
12:40who had bought many little papers during the first week,
12:44now wanted to get rid of Moncho's little papers.
12:48Since he also had Pepe's little papers,
12:50he came up with a great idea that he called "Ernesto's packages."
12:56These were packages with 100 little papers of all colors.
12:58For example, there were 10 of Pepe's little papers on top,
13:0220 Horacio's ice cream parlor little papers in the middle
13:05and 70 little papers of Moncho's lunar project
13:09at the bottom, where nobody would see them.
13:12By the following Thursday,
13:14Ernesto's packages were a huge hit among the neighbors
13:17who madly sought out Pepe's little papers or the mayor's.
13:21But Friday, Quique found out about the scam and said,
13:24"Beware! Be careful, neighbors!
13:26Ernesto's packages sometimes have Pepe's little papers or the mayor's on top
13:31and that's fine,
13:32but at the bottom there's plenty of Moncho's papers,
13:35and that guy is never ever going to get anybody to the Moon.
13:38So before you buy his package, seek my advice.
13:41I charge two coins for each piece of advice."
13:44(Laughter)
13:45From that moment on,
13:47every buyer consulted Quique before buying any package from Ernesto.
13:52Ernesto and Quique, who had been friends for many years,
13:56never spoke to each other again.
13:58This is what went on the second week.
14:01At this point, Nina was almost an expert in this matter.
14:05I explained to her that in the real world,
14:07the mayor's little papers are called "public debt securities."
14:12I explained her that Ernesto's packages
14:14are "collateralized debt obligations."
14:17And places like Quique's house, the place where all the neighbors go
14:21to find out if they should trust Ernesto or not,
14:23are called "investment banks."
14:26Then I told Nina that when the third week started,
14:31some of the projects were almost completed,
14:33while others were just getting started.
14:35Pepe's just needed to nail the tethering post
14:38so the horses could rest outside the bar.
14:42Horacio had managed to blend milk and fruits for the ice cream,
14:45and just needed to bring ice blocks from town.
14:49But Carmen was still looking for a nice venue for her beauty salon
14:53although she had dozens of sharpened scissors.
14:56And what can we say about poor Moncho?
14:59His horses looked sadder and skinnier,
15:02no matter how much he brushed them.
15:04It didn't look like his device would fly anytime soon.
15:09The neighbors that had Moncho's and Carmen's little papers were nervous,
15:13and they couldn't sell them to anybody
15:15until Quique came up with a great idea.
15:18He said, "Hey!
15:20If you still have Moncho's little papers, don't worry.
15:23I can sell you 'Quique's Peace of Mind' for those little papers."
15:28"What's that?" asked Sabino,
15:31who had a lot of Moncho's little papers.
15:33"Very easy," said Quique.
15:34"If you have Moncho's little papers,
15:36you pay me two coins every night until the end of the month,
15:39and if Moncho can't get people to the Moon,
15:42I'll pay the 20 coins Moncho promised."
15:45"Even if he fails?" asked everyone.
15:47"Even if he fails!" said Quique.
15:49"Great idea!" said Sabino.
15:52"That way we'll feel much safer,
15:55and we can buy more little papers from the village fool."
15:57"That's why I call it Quique's Peace of Mind," said Quique.
16:00And many neighbors began to pay Quique
16:04two coins every night to insure Moncho's project.
16:09Caught up in the frenzy of these new ideas,
16:13no one in the village realized
16:15that the mayor had neither fixed the streetlights
16:18nor the water fountain.
16:19He had only kept one part of his promise:
16:24he had fled the village in a motorcar.
16:29That's all he'd done.
16:33And the only horses left in the village were Moncho's.
16:37The mayor had taken all the other horses.
16:39The assistant, the mayor's right hand, who knew all about the scam all along,
16:45decided that nobody should know that his boss had left.
16:48And his idea was magnificent:
16:50he brought a blackboard into the Little Papers Hall,
16:53and he started grading each project from one to ten.
16:57He gave an eight to Pepe's Bar,
16:59a five to Carmen's beauty salon,
17:01and a seven to Horacio's ice cream parlor.
17:03He gave a two to Moncho's Moon vehicle
17:06and, as if it was no big deal,
17:08he gave a 9.5 to the mayor's village square renewal project.
17:14"What are those numbers?" asked Sabino.
17:16The assistant said,
17:18"Those are the probabilities of completion of each project.
17:21It's for you. I'm only trying to help."
17:25Which was what went on the third week.
17:27At this point, I explained Nina that in the real world,
17:31Quique's idea of offering peace of mind
17:35is called a "credit default swap."
17:38The assistant's blackboard, in which he graded each project,
17:42in the real world is called a "credit reporting agency."
17:45They sometimes get it wrong unintentionally,
17:48and they sometimes get it wrong on purpose.
17:50Since we were already on the fourth week,
17:53Nina asked me if Pepe had finally managed to open his bar,
17:57and I told her the end of the story.
17:59The end of the story goes like this:
18:01When the fourth week came along, and the month went by,
18:04Pepe got up very early, and he peacefully walked to the village.
18:08From a distance, you could see his bar facade
18:11shining with the brand new luminous sign.
18:13The bar was called "The Moon," as Moncho had suggested.
18:18Now he only had to wait for the neighbors to arrive,
18:21dying for a drink.
18:23Pepe walked the 10 miles to the village,
18:26nailing signs to every tree beside the road:
18:29"The Moon Bar. Open every night."
18:32Each time he nailed a sign, he would move back
18:35and stand proud staring at the sign.
18:39However, when he got to the village square,
18:43he couldn't figure out what was going on.
18:45He thought he had made a wrong turn, and that he was in a different village.
18:49It looked like a war had broken out.
18:53The streetlights and the fountain had been destroyed.
18:56There were no horses in the streets.
18:58The neighbors were walking in circles talking to themselves.
19:01"What happened?" Pepe asked Horacio as soon as he saw him.
19:05"Oh! Pepe!" said Horacio crying,
19:07"Oh, Pepe. Everybody went crazy with the little papers,
19:10with mine, Carmen's, yours, everyone's.
19:14All of a sudden, there were more little papers than coins.
19:18The mayor ran away. Later on, there were no more coins.
19:21Then the horses disappeared.
19:23The guys selling Ernesto's packages went broke.
19:25Quique's Peace of Mind resellers couldn't pay anyone,
19:29so they ran away during the night.
19:30We are ruined, Pepe."
19:32"And your ice cream project?" asked Pepe,
19:34"What about Carmen's beauty salon?"
19:36"My project was a fiasco," said Horacio,
19:38"There are no horses to go to town for ice, so the ice cream melts.
19:42Carmen doesn't have any customers.
19:44Everybody is pulling their own hair out. No one needs a haircut."
19:47Pepe was speechless. He couldn't believe what he'd heard.
19:51Then Horacio said, "Dear God, I need a drink."
19:56And Luis said, "Me too. My throat is dry."
19:58Sabino asked, "Pepe, did you open the bar you were building or not?"
20:03And many others approached him, asking about the bar.
20:06Pepe then realized that without horses
20:09no one could ever get to his bar in the outskirts of the village.
20:13He also realized he could never repay the 10,000 coins he had borrowed.
20:18Then he saw, in the middle of the square,
20:21Moncho.
20:24Moncho's two skinny horses were the only animals left,
20:28and they were pulling three wagons with two wheels each, like a train.
20:32Many neighbors were getting on the wagons,
20:35while many others were waiting in a long line.
20:39"Moncho," said Pepe, "where are all these people going?"
20:43And Moncho said, "Where do you think?
20:45To your bar! To The Moon."
20:47Pepe saw a sign hanging from the broken water fountain that said,
20:50"Moncho gets you to The Moon.
20:52Departure: one coin. Return: Free."
20:56"But Moncho," said Pepe,
20:57"did you know that everyone would lose their horses?"
21:00"No," said Moncho, "I only knew one thing:
21:03I know anyone can ride a horse to the bar,
21:06but no one can ride it home if they're drunk."
21:09"Since I don't drink, I thought I could take folks to and from The Moon."
21:14Then Pepe hugged Moncho.
21:16He got into the first wagon and shouted,
21:19"Everybody to The Moon! Drinks are on the house tonight."
21:23And everybody jumped in the wagons and clapped.
21:25Even Nina was happy, and she clapped at the end of the story.
21:30Then I told my daughter that she should be careful
21:33because in the real world,
21:35the stories about Pepes who want to open bars,
21:39or the stories about Monchos who want to get people to the Moon,
21:42stories that no one understands,
21:44are almost always projects
21:46that don't have happy endings as in children's stories.
21:51Because people like Quique, the mayor, Ernesto or the assistant show up,
21:57and they always ruin everything.
22:00But when one of these projects does work,
22:03I told my daughter,
22:05when something magical happens and those projects turn out fine,
22:10they are called "dreams,"
22:11and they are usually wonderful.
22:14(Applause)
22:21Thank you very much.
22:23(Applause)

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