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Matt Hougan Just Said The UNTHINKABLE About Bitcoin & Ethereum! [2026 New Prediction] — Transcript

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0:00For 7 years, not one big institution
0:02asked Bitwise for a long-term Bitcoin
0:04forecast. Then, in a single year, a
0:07dozen did. National advisor platforms,
0:09large wealth networks, and investment
0:11committees overseeing trillions of
0:12dollars, all asking for the same thing,
0:14a return assumption they could set next
0:16to stocks and bonds. That kind of demand
0:19never shows up on a price chart, and
0:20[music] in early October, the chart
0:22turned ugly. Between October 5th and
0:249th, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about
0:27$680 million, and Ethereum funds lost
0:31another 540 million. AI stocks wobbled,
0:33a big tech listing got pulled, and the
0:35fear spread to every corner of the
0:37market. Matt Hogan is the chief
0:39investment officer of the crypto asset
0:41manager Bitwise, the firm that fielded
0:43those requests. In two fresh
0:44conversations, [music] he laid out what
0:46institutional money is doing underneath
0:48the headlines, where he thinks Bitcoin
0:50is heading, and why Ethereum sits at the
0:52center of the next part of this cycle.
0:54In this video, we're breaking down the
0:56flow numbers the headlines skip, the AI
0:58scare that has every investor on edge,
1:00the long-range Bitcoin target Bitwise
1:02has put in writing, and the rebuild of
1:04Wall Street's plumbing that is happening
1:06on Ethereum. Now, let's begin.
1:08>> Yeah, I'm I mostly think it's following
1:09price on a day-to-day basis. It it
1:12follows nuances in the options. When you
1:14see that across the curve move on a
1:16single day, uh there's usually something
1:19funky going on on the other side. It's
1:21hard to say exactly what that funky
1:22thing is on the other side. If you see
1:24sustained large outflows over multiple
1:26days, you and I have talked about this,
1:29but the actual reporting onto an
1:31individual day is a little bit uh
1:34variant. You really should look at these
1:36on 5-day flows uh to get a feel for
1:38what's going on.
1:40To be sure,
1:41we've had a few days of outflows across
1:43the whole ecosystem, across Bitcoin,
1:45particularly across ETH, across some
1:47other assets. So, there has been a cool
1:49down of investor flows, but I would
1:52describe it as that, a little cool down
1:54after some really strong inflows. And I
1:56think we'll be we'll be back to the
1:58inflow trade before long.
1:59>> I agree. And so there's one of the lead
2:01stories here. JP Morgan estimates 50
2:03billion has flowed into crypto this year
2:05as momentum improves into Q4. I think
2:08they put it at, you know, annualized,
2:09they think it'd be 65 billion or so.
2:12That's a much more compelling statement
2:15than what ETFs did on a daily or weekly
2:18or even monthly basis at this point.
2:20First of all, do you think that's an
2:21accurate number? And you know, where is
2:22that flowing?
2:23>> Yeah, I thought that was a great a great
2:25article uh and a great note from JP
2:27Morgan. I mean, they were combining ETF
2:29flows and implied derivative flows and
2:31corporate purchases. They were really
2:33looking at institutional capital moving
2:35into crypto.
2:36And I think a lot of the media thinks it
2:38only moves in via ETFs. Obviously, as an
2:41ETF issuer, I wish that were true. But
2:43in fact, it moves in through ETFs,
2:46through corporate purchases, through
2:48derivatives exposure. And JP Morgan was
2:51aggregating that up. I think the most
2:53important chart in that article, if you
2:56panned down, you would see the flows
2:59sort of year by year. And what you want
3:01to do is compare 2026
3:04over 2022.
3:06And what you can see is uh while the
3:08flows have come down from sort of the
3:10the the glory days of ETF launching,
3:13they're up significantly cycle over
3:15cycle. And to me, that's the real
3:16important point. Like you really have to
3:18compare where we are now versus where we
3:20were in the last cycle. And you can see
3:22that on that basis, we're two, three,
3:25four X. It's a much more institutional
3:27market. And to me, that was the big
3:29takeaway of that report.
3:33>> That JP Morgan note landed on October
3:368th. And the pace it describes is still
3:38only about half of 2025's record of
3:40roughly 130 billion dollars. JP Morgan
3:44also widened its count to include
3:45private corporate treasuries, private
3:47miners, and government-linked buyers. In
3:49the first half of the year, the buying
3:51came mostly from strategy and from
3:53crypto venture funding, while the ETFs
3:55were a drag with heavy outflows in May
3:57and June. In the third quarter, ETF
3:59flows and futures positioning turned
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5:00back to the video. The weekly numbers
5:02fill in the rest of the picture. In the
5:04week ending October 2nd, US spot Bitcoin
5:06ETFs took in about $241 million, their
5:10third straight week of inflows. And
5:12BlackRock's fund alone pulled in roughly
5:14$450 million. Then, the October 5th to
5:179th week flipped to the outflows you saw
5:19in the headlines. On October 9th itself,
5:21the Bitcoin funds were back to a small
5:23net inflow of about $21 million.
5:25Corporate buying never stopped, either.
5:27Strategy's filing on October 5th showed
5:30another 334 Bitcoin added, taking the
5:33company to 848,000
5:35coins at an average cost of about
5:37$75,440
5:40each. All of this happened with the
5:41market under real pressure. On October
5:4312th, Bitcoin traded around $83,000,
5:47about 34% below its all-time high of
5:49$126,080.
5:51And Ether sat near $2,540,
5:55roughly half of its August 2025 peak. It
5:57also came almost exactly a year after
6:00the worst night in crypto history, when
6:02about $19 billion of leverage positions
6:05were wiped out on October 10th and 11th
6:07of 2025. So, if the big money hasn't
6:10left, the next question is who it is and
6:12what it looks like from inside the firms
6:14that control it.
6:15>> Yeah, and and I'll just tell you
6:16anecdotally on the road, I've spent much
6:18of the last month going to conferences,
6:20large wealth conferences, wirehouse
6:22conferences. And I will say the the the
6:24attitude has really shifted. Uh Bitcoin
6:27has become uh really mainstream, right?
6:31You're no longer looked at it anyway
6:33like the guy with horns on your head. I
6:34mean, you have Morgan Stanley launching
6:37ETFs, you have Wells Fargo putting
6:38Bitcoin into models. I suspect that that
6:412024 number will be eclipsed during this
6:44cycle pretty significantly in terms of
6:47inflows. I've never felt sort of the the
6:50normalized feeling of Bitcoin as I have
6:53over the last month at these wealth
6:54platforms.
6:55>> Yeah, I even feel that anecdotally like
6:57with friends, family, and other people.
6:59I think maybe crypto or, you know,
7:01they're certainly not they're certainly
7:02not like ask me about hyperliquid.
7:05>> Right.
7:06>> But at Bitcoin I think it's definitely
7:07just a part of the mainstream
7:08conversation. And I think it's for a
7:10long time.
7:11>> Yeah, but it's really remarkable. I
7:13mean, the other day BlackRock put out a
7:14note about AI agents using Bitcoin as a
7:17store of value and no one blinked,
7:20right? I mean, that would have been like
7:22a fantasy dream. Think of that in 2022.
7:25Think of that in 2018. It'd be
7:27completely absurd. You'd get excited if
7:30they muttered the word Bitcoin even if
7:32it was followed by something like is a
7:34worthless technological experiment.
7:36You'd be like, at least they said it. Um
7:39and now they're talking about AI agents
7:41saving in Bitcoin.
7:42Uh it's it's really it's crazy.
7:47>> Two of those examples come with hard
7:49dates. Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin
7:51fund, ticker MSBT, started trading on
7:54April 8th, making it the first major
7:56Wall Street bank to launch its own
7:58Bitcoin ETF at a fee of 0.14%.
8:01And the BlackRock paper, titled The
8:03Machine Native Economy, came out on
8:05September 22nd. It drew on simulations
8:08where AI agents were asked which assets
8:10they would use. And they mostly picked
8:11stablecoins for payments and Bitcoin for
8:14long-term savings. BlackRock was careful
8:16to say these were model responses, not
8:18real transactions. The surveys back up
8:20the mood shift. A Bitwise and VettaFi
8:22survey of US financial advisors found
8:2432% allocated to crypto in client
8:27accounts in 2025, up from 22% the year
8:30before, and the highest reading in the 8
8:32years the survey has run. And there is a
8:34lot of room left. At a Bitwise event in
8:37September, about 2/3 of the roughly 400
8:40wealth managers in the room said they
8:41still had no crypto in client portfolios
8:44at all. That is the buyer who hasn't
8:46shown up yet. If you want to see which
8:48kind of money is moving each day, the
8:50ETF flows, the corporate treasury
8:52buying, and the stablecoin supply, I
8:54track all of it in the Crypto Nutshell,
8:56my free 5-minute daily email. No spin,
8:59just the numbers that tell you who's
9:00buying straight to your inbox. Click the
9:02first link in the description, enter
9:04your email, and you're in. But every one
9:06of those portfolios has the same fear
9:08hanging over it. And it has nothing to
9:10do with crypto.
9:11>> I think that's I think that's fair.
9:13Although I think some of that
9:14underperformance is those five or 10
9:16names sucking capital out of the other
9:18names more so than Yeah, more so than
9:21than poor economic performance or poor
9:23economic earnings. I would guess if you
9:25looked at the overall earnings of the
9:26S&P 500, they may have tell a different
9:28story than performance. We felt that so
9:30acutely in crypto, where AI was sucking
9:33capital out of crypto for a while. And
9:35that definitely contributed to the last
9:37bear market cycle. So, I think there's
9:39an element of that in it as well. But,
9:41of course, you have to be a little bit
9:43worried about it. You have to play the
9:45game in your head of what happens if
9:46that crash happens.
9:48As crypto investors, we should ask what
9:50happens if that crash happens. I think
9:54in the end it ends up with Bitcoin doing
9:57exceptionally well.
9:59But, there might be a little hiccup in
10:00the middle.
10:01But, I see no signs that we're rolling
10:03over. Right? There's no
10:04>> I am in that the
10:06bad news is good for crypto, good news
10:08is good for crypto phase, which I you
10:10know, I don't I don't I'm sometimes
10:11uncomfortable with, but that you know,
10:13we
10:14went up when everything else is kind of
10:16breaking down. You know, gold is
10:17breaking below key levels and while
10:20Bitcoin is breaking above it, the stock
10:21market, like I said, it's kind of all
10:23over the place and Bitcoin's doing its
10:25own thing as it tends to do in these
10:27cycles. So, I think
10:28you know, you've got the debasement
10:29narrative could send it. If stocks
10:32continue up, that could help it. You
10:34know, I'm just not in a place where I'm
10:35particularly worried about Bitcoin after
10:37it just finally broke out.
10:39>> Totally agree. I described it the other
10:41day to someone as a choose your own
10:42adventure novel where every choice leads
10:45on the same page at the end, which is
10:47with Bitcoin's price higher.
10:51>> The concentration he's describing is
10:53easy to measure. By the end of
10:54September, the 10 biggest companies in
10:57the S&P 500 made up close to 40% of the
11:00whole index. That is how a handful of
11:02names can drag everything else around.
11:04And the cracks in that trade showed up
11:06in early October. On October 8th, a
11:08Financial Times report said OpenAI's
11:10annualized revenue was around $50
11:12billion, roughly 20 billion less than
11:15the figure investors had been given a
11:17month earlier. Part of the gap came down
11:19to how revenue was counted, Nasdaq fell
11:211.25% that day. Nvidia lost 2.9% and AMD
11:263.9% and Oracle 5.5%. The next day,
11:30Fermus, an Nvidia-backed data center
11:32company, pulled a listing worth about
11:34$5.5 billion after investors balked at
11:37its price. The scoreboard shows how
11:39lopsided it got. Through mid-October,
11:41the Nasdaq was up around 16% for 2026,
11:44while Bitcoin was down around 5% for the
11:47year. The next conversation with wealth
11:49industry veteran Rick Edelman was
11:51recorded on September 9th during the
11:53third-quarter rally and before the
11:54October shakeout. Keep that timing in
11:56mind because Bitwise was asked straight
11:58out whether its number had changed.
12:00>> Well, it's starting to, right? I think
12:02the answer to that is that old quip that
12:04in the the short term markets are voting
12:06machine and in the long term they're a
12:08weighing machine.
12:09In the short term, look, crypto is also
12:12a cyclical industry. It goes through
12:13booms and busts. In the first half of
12:16this year, it was in a classic crypto
12:18bear market cycle with prices retreating
12:21from new all-time highs, falling about
12:2350% top to bottom, and that was all that
12:25the market could pay attention to,
12:27right? They were solely focused on that.
12:29Underneath the surface, the fundamentals
12:31were improving and you and I talked
12:32about that. The regulation was
12:34improving, the revenue generation was
12:35improving, the real-world applications
12:37were improving, but there is this meta
12:39narrative that was drowning it out. And
12:42actually what we've seen over the last
12:44uh five or six weeks is that that
12:48narrative has turned, right? People have
12:50become bullish on crypto. Bitcoin is up
12:5325 or 30% from its low. Uniswap has
12:56almost doubled from its low. Hyperliquid
12:59is trading at new all-time highs. Some
13:02of these assets are up 100% plus. So,
13:05actually the market has started to
13:07recognize this fundamental shift, but
13:09it's very early. I think it's a classic
13:11example where the fundamentals improved,
13:14but sentiment was still negative, and
13:16that kept the price down. But, I do
13:18think it's changed. I think we're moving
13:19into a bullish cycle and I expect uh
13:22eventually we'll outrun the
13:23fundamentals.
13:24But, we're not there yet. So, there's
13:26still opportunity for investors.
13:28>> Bitwise has said in the past uh what it
13:30believes its uh price prediction is for
13:32Bitcoin. Have you revised that number?
13:35>> No, we still think I mean, our long-term
13:37price prediction is 1.3 million by 2035.
13:40I personally think that's conservative.
13:42I think there's easy math that backs
13:43that up. And I sort of challenge people
13:46to challenge that math. Um
13:49I think it'll be higher at the end of
13:50the year. I don't know that we'll get
13:52back to all-time highs this year. It
13:53takes a while for these things to
13:55percolate. But, I do think we're going
13:56to see billions of dollars of inflows. I
13:58think there's concern about debasement.
14:00I think it's a very bullish setup.
14:05>> That number comes from a report Bitwise
14:07published on August 21st, 2025. The 1.3
14:10million-dollar figure is the base case,
14:12built on Bitcoin compounding at about
14:1428% a year. The bull case is about 2.97
14:18million. The bear case is about $88,000,
14:21not far from where Bitcoin traded in
14:23mid-October. And the math he says people
14:25should challenge is mostly about gold.
14:27When the report came out, Bitcoin's
14:29market value was roughly 9% of gold's.
14:31The base case assumes that share climbs
14:33to about 25% by 2035. Measured from
14:36around $83,000, the 1.3 million target
14:40works out to roughly 15 times. For
14:42comparison, the same report assumed US
14:45large-cap stocks return about 6.2% a
14:47year and gold about 3.8%. Gold has had a
14:51rough stretch of its own, too. On
14:52October 5th, gold futures settled around
14:55$4,157
14:57an ounce, nearly 22% below their record
15:00close of $5,318
15:02from January 29th. The asset people ran
15:05to for safety has been in a drawdown, as
15:07well. Bitcoin is only half of Bitwise's
15:09case, though. The other half runs
15:11through a network most investors still
15:13think of as just another coin.
15:15>> Look, I think that what the world has
15:16woken up to is the fact that blockchains
15:18are the best tool for moving financial
15:21assets that's ever been created. And
15:23just to put a fine point on that before
15:25we talk about the opportunity, Rick, you
15:27know this,
15:28if I were to send money via JP Morgan
15:32uh to Australia, it would take a couple
15:34of days and the fee would be $40 or $50.
15:37For those days, I'd wear the risk of US
15:40Australian dollar FX risk. Uh maybe it
15:44would bridge over a weekend. It could be
15:465 days before it gets there.
15:48>> If it's a holiday like this past week.
15:50>> It could be yeah, you could easily get
15:52to 5 days. And that's a bank with
15:54300,000 employees and offices in 50
15:56countries.
15:57Uh on Ethereum, I can move a stable coin
16:00in a second for less than a penny. And
16:02it has no employees, no offices. Not
16:04like it's not like incrementally better,
16:06it's like the postal service versus the
16:08mail service. And the same is true for
16:09stocks. If I buy a stock on you know,
16:13through my brokerage account, it settles
16:15T plus one day.
16:17If I buy a tokenized stock on Solana, it
16:19settles T plus one second. Um actually
16:22settles fa- you know, faster than that.
16:24Uh
16:24it's just infinitely better. These are
16:26better tools. And I think what we're
16:27seeing in the data is the world is work-
16:30waking up to that. What does that mean?
16:31It means stable coins, which are digital
16:33dollars printed on a blockchain, have
16:35gone from zero to $300 billion over the
16:37last handful of years. And every major
16:40financial firm, whether that's uh Stripe
16:43or Visa or the largest banks in the
16:45world, is positioning to play in the
16:46stable coin market cuz
16:48the Citibank says it's going to $4
16:50trillion over the next 4 years, right?
16:52Huge ramp. And then on tokenized stocks,
16:55those have been growing 6 or 700% a
16:57year. I think it's the fastest growing
16:59entity in finance. You have things like
17:02the chair of the SEC saying all stocks
17:04will be on chain in the next couple of
17:05years. This is a huge upgrade. So, these
17:08are massive trends with multi-trillion
17:10dollar addressable markets. And they all
17:13sit on blockchain assets. So, all of
17:16those tokenized stocks and tokenized
17:18bonds and tokenized dollars are moving
17:21over Ethereum and Solana and Tron and
17:25Avalanche and XRP. They're all using
17:27Chainlink, which is a crypto asset, to
17:30find out information in the world.
17:32They're all being traded against one
17:34another on Uniswap, not in traditional
17:36FX houses. And I just think a lot of
17:39investors have decided they want to be
17:41on this sort of internet era upgrade of
17:44the financial system and invest behind
17:46it. And that means owning those
17:49protocols that are powering it, and then
17:51owning the crypto equities like
17:53Robinhood and Coinbase that are
17:56embracing this and moving their business
17:58forward.
17:59Um it's the fastest growing thing in
18:01finance. I think it's a really big deal.
18:06>> Close to half of that market sits on
18:08Ethereum. According to DeFi Llama data,
18:10around 145 billion dollars of
18:13stablecoins live there. Circle's USDC
18:16alone is around 74 billion dollars. That
18:18City figure has a range behind it. In a
18:20September 2025 report, City raised its
18:232030 forecast to a base case of 1.9
18:26trillion dollars and a bull case of 4
18:28trillion. And estimated stablecoins
18:30could be moving around 100 trillion
18:32dollars a year in payments by then. And
18:34the SEC chair, Paul Atkins, said in a
18:37Fox Business interview in December 2025
18:39that he expects US financial markets to
18:42move on chain in a couple of years. The
18:44biggest corporate ether buyer is
18:45positioned for exactly that. Bitwise
18:48said on October 12th that it holds 6
18:50million 28,946
18:52ETH, about 4.9% of the total supply,
18:55after adding 12,532
18:58more in the week to October 11th.
19:00Roughly 84% of those coins are staked,
19:02earning yield from the network. Hogan
19:04has run the numbers on what that does to
19:06the size of the market Ethereum can
19:08serve.
19:09>> Well, yeah, absolutely. It benefits them
19:10in terms of access to markets like that
19:1224/7 365 on a global basis, but it also
19:16benefits investors. If you think about
19:17Ethereum as a platform on which, you
19:21know, you can issue stable coins or
19:23issue tokenized assets, that's only so
19:25interesting if it's just focused on
19:27crypto. Crypto's a $2 trillion market.
19:29If you start to bring stocks on chain,
19:31there's a $150 trillion of stocks. You
19:33just 75x
19:35the scale of volume that can be traded
19:37through something like Uniswap. You just
19:3975x
19:40the scale of the market that can be
19:42borrowed on a DeFi platform like Aave.
19:44And that's just stocks. If you do it for
19:46bonds, it's actually 150x, right? So,
19:49we're talking about massive expansions
19:51of the market that crypto and DeFi can
19:54serve. And that's one of the reasons
19:56you're starting to see prices pick back
19:57up after a a long cold winter.
20:01>> Number two, institutional adoption.
20:05>> Yeah, I mean, it's very real, right?
20:07Over the last month alone, we saw $3.4
20:10billion flow into Bitcoin ETFs. We saw
20:13$1.7 billion into Ethereum ETFs. We saw
20:17hundreds of millions of dollars into XRP
20:19and Solana, Hyperliquid, and Chainlink
20:22ETFs.
20:23Um, institutional adoption is real. A
20:26thing that sticks in my mind, Rick, and
20:28you actually deserve a fair amount of
20:29credit for this, is when you and I
20:31started doing these calls a few years
20:32ago, remember how long we talked about
20:35getting off zero? Maybe getting to 1%?
20:38Yeah. Right? A thing that people haven't
20:40reflected is it's true that more
20:43institutional investors are allocating
20:45to the space. That's absolutely true.
20:48But the amount they're allocating is no
20:50longer maybe 1%. We're now seeing in
20:54capital market assumption reports from
20:56large wealth managers two to upwards of
20:597%
21:01into that space. And to say something
21:04blunt and obvious, 2% is twice as much
21:07as 1%
21:09and 7% is seven times as much as 1%. Uh
21:13it's a game-changer in terms of the
21:14amount of assets that can flow in. I
21:16think we'll see tens of billions of
21:17dollars into ETFs in the coming months
21:19as wealth managers really go on online.
21:25>> Those floor numbers were from the late
21:26summer stretch. October looked very
21:29different. Between October 5th and 9th,
21:31US spot Ethereum ETFs lost about 542
21:35million dollars, their biggest weekly
21:37withdrawal since January. And
21:38BlackRock's Ether Fund accounted for
21:40about 477 million of it. Fund money is
21:43cyclical. It pours in on rallies and
21:45pulls back on scares. The allocation
21:47shift he describes is easier to pin
21:49down. Since January 2026, Bank of
21:52America's advisors have been cleared to
21:54recommend allocation of 1 to 4% for
21:57suitable clients across Merrill and its
21:59private bank. Each step up in those
22:01policy ranges applies to every client
22:03account the policy covers, which is why
22:04this money moves slowly but arrives in
22:07size. So, what does all of this add up
22:09to for someone holding through weeks
22:11like these?
22:14Put both conversations together and you
22:16get one picture. The price is voting on
22:19fear. A hard week of outflows, an AI
22:21scare, gold in its own drawdown, and the
22:24anniversary of the worst liquidation
22:26crypto has ever seen. The plumbing
22:28underneath keeps getting built anyway.
22:30JP Morgan counts tens of billions of
22:32dollars flowing into crypto so far in
22:342026. [music] Strategy holds 848,000
22:38Bitcoin. Bitmain is closing in on 5% of
22:41all Ether. Morgan Stanley runs its own
22:43Bitcoin fund and close to half of the
22:45world's stablecoins sit on Ethereum.
22:47None of this guarantees a smooth path.
22:49Fund flows can stay negative for weeks.
22:51Bitwise's own bear case sits around
22:5488,000 dollars. So, even a firm this
22:56bullish plans for long, painful
22:58stretches. If the AI trade breaks hard,
23:00crypto could get dragged lower before
23:02anything else happens. And Hogan did not
23:04put a price on ether in either
23:06conversation. So, be careful with anyone
23:08quoting you an ETH target in his name.
23:10But, the type of money in this market
23:12has changed. It moves through investment
23:14committees, model portfolios, and
23:16allocation policies. That money builds
23:18positions over years and then holds
23:20them. When the people with the most
23:22research behind them keep adding while
23:23the headlines are at their worst, that
23:25is worth [music] paying attention to. If
23:27you want to keep track of that money as
23:29it moves, the flows, the treasury buys,
23:31the stablecoin numbers, and what they
23:33mean for your portfolio, I break it down
23:35every day in the crypto nutshell, my
23:37free 5-minute daily email. Click the
23:39first link in the description, enter
23:40your email, and you're in. Anyway, guys,
23:42that's all we have for today. Thanks for
23:44watching, and I'll see you all in the
23:45next video.

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