martinlukkt - $WTI potential double top ｜ 7 Apr 2026 highlights — Transcript

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15. 1:59>> Mhm.
16. 2:01>> [music]
17. 2:06[music]
18. 2:12[music]
19. 2:18[music]
20. 2:29>> Good morning.
21. 2:31Good evening and good
22. 2:33afternoon everyone.
23. 2:35It looks like we're getting a
24. 2:37gap down today and I think it's I'm
25. 2:40going to
26. 2:41possibly
27. 2:42get stopped out from I think coin.
28. 2:47Maybe AEOI too.
29. 2:50Right after the open.
30. 2:52Oil doesn't
31. 2:55want to go down.
32. 2:57Now it's trying to
33. 2:59push higher
34. 3:01through the 120
35. 3:03level.
36. 3:05Will I remove my stop loss for the first
37. 3:0815 minutes?
38. 3:10Um
39. 3:12maybe occasionally.
40. 3:15But I think
41. 3:17not today.
42. 3:19Yeah, I think I'm just going to like
43. 3:21get my stops in and
44. 3:24going to get stopped out
45. 3:25from coin.
46. 3:28But still I'm looking
47. 3:30uh
48. 3:32I'm looking for the long setups, the
49. 3:34long ideas.
50. 3:36So maybe I will re-enter some of the
51. 3:39some of these names if it
52. 3:42provides me an entry.
53. 3:44So I found several like good looking
54. 3:47charts.
55. 3:48Uh this Q and this
56. 3:51SOLS looks
57. 3:53pretty identical inside day.
58. 3:57Uh
59. 3:591 month base above all the EMAs
60. 4:02pull back to the 50 EMA and now is
61. 4:06trying [snorts] to
62. 4:07break out.
63. 4:09I kind of feels like they like they in
64. 4:13there's a little bit of chop uh
65. 4:16for the oil
66. 4:18around 150 150 level
67. 4:21116
68. 4:24and uh indices is still
69. 4:28holding up okay.
70. 4:31So actually all of them are still above
71. 4:32yesterday's low
72. 4:35and above the daily 9 EMA.
73. 4:38So I got stopped out from Fastly
74. 4:40yesterday.
75. 4:42Fastly can pull back to the 50 EMA on
76. 4:45the
77. 4:46hourly chart.
78. 4:48Maybe even
79. 4:50to the
80. 4:51high 29s
81. 4:53around this
82. 4:54I think this will be a good
83. 4:57level to look at.
84. 4:59It's also at the daily daily 9 EMA.
85. 5:03And cryptos uh I think the close is
86. 5:07very important.
87. 5:10Can they hold above the EMAs and close
88. 5:12above it?
89. 5:13If they close below it
90. 5:15then
91. 5:16maybe there will be more downside or
92. 5:19maybe they need more time.
93. 5:22But if they can like
94. 5:24reclaim the 9 or the 21 EMA that will be
95. 5:28sign of strength.
96. 5:30Q and SLS is
97. 5:32uh opens
98. 5:34lower
99. 5:35opens red and uh
100. 5:38let's see whether they can take out
101. 5:39Friday high.
102. 5:41XOP is testing the anchor view app from
103. 5:44from from swing high again.
104. 5:47So I'm just going to follow the stop
105. 5:49on the on trip. Let's see where it would
106. 5:53it would takes takes me out.
107. 5:55EM and raw also got stopped out.
108. 5:57The spread of SOXS
109. 6:00pretty wide.
110. 6:03It is actually
111. 6:05very wide.
112. 6:07MSTR
113. 6:09pretty strong pretty strong compared to
114. 6:12coin and bit mine.
115. 6:15So, we're seeing some strength on oil
116. 6:17and
117. 6:18weakness
118. 6:20uh on the
119. 6:21the precious metals.
120. 6:24I only bought half size on SOXS.
121. 6:29I set a limit
122. 6:30limit order at around 7865.
123. 6:34Also got stopped out from
124. 6:37but the other stocks seems holding up
125. 6:39pretty well.
126. 6:41They got filled
127. 6:42from
128. 6:44Let's see.
129. 6:46Yeah, so at the same time there are lots
130. 6:47of
131. 6:49weak names there there is
132. 6:51the declining EMAs. Well,
133. 6:54most
134. 6:55XOPs
135. 6:57getting rejection
136. 6:59after hunting my stop.
137. 7:01Uh I'm just kidding, but uh yeah, I got
138. 7:04stopped out and then they
139. 7:06it's pulling back.
140. 7:08Fastly is
141. 7:10one a little bit
142. 7:13tight entry.
143. 7:15Hopefully it pulls back to the
144. 7:189 EMA on the 1-minute chart
145. 7:21or even the 5-minute chart.
146. 7:24Let's see where it can find support.
147. 7:27The first 15 minutes
148. 7:29uh
149. 7:30is choppy as expected.
150. 7:32The market continues to
151. 7:35continue slower.
152. 7:37Oh, I got stopped out.
153. 7:39But fastly right after it.
154. 7:42Some some
155. 7:44I'm going to
156. 7:46slow down a little bit.
157. 7:48Oop, fastly.
158. 7:50If I set my stop to off day,
159. 7:53it's actually
160. 7:55I'm not getting I'm not get stopped out
161. 7:58even to the 5-minute candle low.
162. 8:02I was a little bit too greedy and put it
163. 8:05a little bit tighter, but it looks like
164. 8:08I'm making a wrong decision.
165. 8:10Here we see set the end of the V web
166. 8:13from the
167. 8:16Wednesday low. I mean from Wednesday,
168. 8:18like this undercut
169. 8:20and rally candle.
170. 8:22NPS is
171. 8:24breaking out from the
172. 8:26end of the V web.
173. 8:28And video is still under
174. 8:3021 EMA
175. 8:32can close above the 9 EMA could
176. 8:36potentially
177. 8:38set up a like a breakout.
178. 8:42There's a tiny flag and then a
179. 8:45breakout to the upside
180. 8:47for the bull case scenario
181. 8:51given that the semis
182. 8:54sector strength.
183. 8:57MU is now rejecting at the
184. 9:0050 EMA.
185. 9:02NPS is rejecting at the end of the V
186. 9:05web.
187. 9:06Maybe
188. 9:09we need a little bit more time.
189. 9:12Or maybe we just
190. 9:13continues
191. 9:15going lower.
192. 9:17But it's coming close to the 9 EMA on
193. 9:20the daily.
194. 9:22And the leaders are holding up
195. 9:25quite nicely.
196. 9:27We'll see. Wow, what is this 5-minute
197. 9:29candle?
198. 9:31Yeah, a nice breakout on
199. 9:34the CF.
200. 9:35So CF still is good
201. 9:38kind of
202. 9:40tells the general market is
203. 9:43metals looks like they're
204. 9:45heading lower.
205. 9:48So, I think this shows a
206. 9:51good example step that many
207. 9:54many people are asking me how how did
208. 9:57you get
209. 9:58into the right stock every time.
210. 10:01But in reality, I
211. 10:04I didn't
212. 10:06I'm mostly wrong, actually.
213. 10:09But the 50-year MA 24-hour chart
214. 10:13is the key.
215. 10:15This chart looks very tight.
216. 10:18It's too illiquid.
217. 10:20And not the not
218. 10:22not the
219. 10:24leading sector,
220. 10:26I believe.
221. 10:29All right, so I got stopped out from
222. 10:32MicroStrategy, too.
223. 10:34I think that's
224. 10:36crypto is probably
225. 10:38heading lower.
226. 10:40Maybe I'm too early.
227. 10:43Maybe I'm just wrong.
228. 10:45Can we see the oil price going to 150?
229. 10:50That's been a long time. I think 150
230. 10:552008.
231. 10:57Maybe it's possible.
232. 10:59So, QN SOS are
233. 11:02are again failed breakouts.
234. 11:05So, buying big breakouts
235. 11:08today is
236. 11:10I mean, nowadays is is kind of hard.
237. 11:14Maybe buying now is better. But buying
238. 11:17the pullback into the
239. 11:19>> [snorts]
240. 11:21>> end of year up.
241. 11:22But now the spread of on on QN SOS are
242. 11:26much narrower.
243. 11:29I'm
244. 11:31I'm wondering wondering if it's
245. 11:34like are there are those market makers
246. 11:37skip skipping the first 15 or the 30
247. 11:41minutes of the trading hours?
248. 11:44Not sure the reason behind, but
249. 11:47the spread is
250. 11:49is clearly
251. 11:51much narrower than the first 15 minutes.
252. 11:54Q and spice is accuses slightly below
253. 11:58the 90 maze spice at the 90 maze.
254. 12:01I to be honest about the 21.
255. 12:05YSS is active and go free what?
256. 12:08From this
257. 12:10from the IPO high.
258. 12:13There's a little bit
259. 12:14extended from the 90 maze.
260. 12:16But I may I think it could be a buy if
261. 12:19the 90 maze
262. 12:21is a bit closer to the the current
263. 12:25price.
264. 12:26Oil is not slowing down.
265. 12:29Oil is breaking
266. 12:31breaking out into the new high.
267. 12:33I to be honest here.
268. 12:35Just did a
269. 12:3715-minute
270. 12:39and to break out.
271. 12:43So reentered the source and Q on the
272. 12:4615-minute breakout.
273. 12:49On the pullback the Q is
274. 12:52pulling back into the 90 maze and the
275. 12:54end of free what?
276. 12:56From the swing high
277. 12:58the all-time high.
278. 13:00I saw I was a simply
279. 13:03hourly 90 maze.
280. 13:05But I'm just treating it as a
281. 13:08a key
282. 13:10sympathy trade with the market.
283. 13:13You could say it's a breakout.
284. 13:15It's actually at a similar level
285. 13:17to the yesterday high.
286. 13:20Slightly below it.
287. 13:22And now come here comes the crypto.
288. 13:26Can this be a shakeout?
289. 13:29Can they
290. 13:30close above the 50 EMA on the 4-hour
291. 13:33chart?
292. 13:34NPIX
293. 13:38I think I'm going for the crypto instead
294. 13:40of NPIX. Although I really wanted to
295. 13:42enter NPIX, but the daily is at the end
296. 13:46of the what? It's slightly below it. I
297. 13:49believe
298. 13:50a pullback like if if it
299. 13:53breaks out
300. 13:55successfully, I wish there would be a
301. 13:57pullback and the 9 EMA can catch up
302. 14:00to the anchor VWAP.
303. 14:02If if this 1-hour
304. 14:05like hourly candle on on oil is the
305. 14:08reversal candle,
306. 14:10if this really is
307. 14:12the high of this move,
308. 14:14um
309. 14:16leave a comment maybe
310. 14:191 month 1 month
311. 14:21later like
312. 14:23come back in May and see what it is is
313. 14:25the real top.
314. 14:27But maybe maybe it
315. 14:29you maybe you would know 15 minutes
316. 14:31later and it starts going high.
317. 14:35Um this FIS
318. 14:37looks pretty good.
319. 14:39But it's a little bit
320. 14:41a little bit illiquid.
321. 14:43Like the 1-minute candle is is not a
322. 14:46candle.
323. 14:48Are you guys getting the same charts? Is
324. 14:50it I think I I've already bought the
325. 14:53market data.
326. 14:55Um Flock is pulling
327. 14:57is pulling back into the anchor VWAP.
328. 15:00Found support.
329. 15:02Yeah, I think if balance is is finding
330. 15:06some support,
331. 15:08the space and the satellite stocks are
332. 15:11becoming
333. 15:13the hottest sector right now.
334. 15:16Yeah, Flock
335. 15:17looks like it's the outlier.
336. 15:19The the out the outlier of this of the
337. 15:22whole group.
338. 15:24The Dow has already at the
339. 15:28near
340. 15:29near the high of day.
341. 15:31Waffle a little bit weaker.
342. 15:34Corning is also
343. 15:37at the high of day.
344. 15:39AEO I the same.
345. 15:41Fastly
346. 15:43looks okay.
347. 15:47Now it's okay is
348. 15:49again
349. 15:52getting rejected.
350. 15:54Pulling back
351. 15:56into the end of the web.
352. 15:58I'm just have
353. 16:00I'm having a feeling that it just stops
354. 16:01me out and then
355. 16:03and this will become the the first
356. 16:06higher low.
357. 16:08I'm sorry, the lower high. The first
358. 16:09lower high.
359. 16:11And then
360. 16:13running into the 50 EMA.
361. 16:16I'm just
362. 16:18random buying the 50-minute breakout. I
363. 16:21mean random.
364. 16:22I think that on the daily chart is is a
365. 16:24crap.
366. 16:26But I'm kind of anticipating the
367. 16:30the other category claim all of the
368. 16:32crypto.
369. 16:33When if the crypto really starts
370. 16:37turning up
371. 16:38and then maybe I'll add
372. 16:40I'll also end consider entering coin or
373. 16:43microstrategy.
374. 16:45Personally, I think that they like today
375. 16:47pulling back into the 9 EMA is a
376. 16:50is a good timing to
377. 16:54for the for the long entries.
378. 16:57Especially for the pullback buys.
379. 17:00Given that the leaders are doing well.
380. 17:06But I'm I'm more willing to like take to
381. 17:09take more attempts.
382. 17:11Maybe I'm a little bit too greedy.
383. 17:16Yeah, actually there are s-
384. 17:18more and more stocks uh
385. 17:21building some
386. 17:22ranges
387. 17:24near or above
388. 17:27the key EMAs.
389. 17:29But at the same time, the weak the
390. 17:30weaker ones the weak names are
391. 17:33are just rejecting.
392. 17:35Rejecting at the resistance and
393. 17:38continue slower.
394. 17:41It's really an interesting market like
395. 17:42it's
396. 17:44so polarized.
397. 17:46Oil is
398. 17:47grinding in 9 EMA on the
399. 17:504-hour chart
400. 17:52higher for just
401. 17:55for the past
402. 17:57two to three weeks.
403. 17:59There's a
404. 18:00pullback into the 50 EMA.
405. 18:03Why particularly
406. 18:05I pointed out this candle
407. 18:08maybe they
408. 18:09I think has a very small chance but
409. 18:12maybe
410. 18:14maybe the short-term top is uh
411. 18:18like this 1-hour candle is also the
412. 18:20first uh
413. 18:21the first hour of a of the 4-hour
414. 18:23candle.
415. 18:25And
416. 18:26and a fakeout like a
417. 18:29an attempt to push higher
418. 18:32into the new highs which it
419. 18:35slightly did.
420. 18:37A push higher and a failed breakout is a
421. 18:41one of the
422. 18:42one of the most the commonly commonly
423. 18:45seen
424. 18:46uh
425. 18:48commonly seen like a a telltale sign for
426. 18:51a double top
427. 18:53especially a
428. 18:54like a climax top appear on the left
429. 18:57side.
430. 18:58XON
431. 19:00Yeah, the weekly looks wonderful.
432. 19:04Daily or the hourly chart is
433. 19:07a little bit difficult
434. 19:09to find a
435. 19:10low-risk entry.
436. 19:12But now it's really interesting. There
437. 19:14are more 150 people
438. 19:17looking at a
439. 19:19muted stream.
440. 19:22They are not talking about anything, but
441. 19:23they are they are 150 150 people there
442. 19:26that
443. 19:27they they're watching, listening.
444. 19:30But I'm also just waiting, so
445. 19:33If I'm on the total down, are you tend
446. 19:34to sell more into strength?
447. 19:36Um
448. 19:38Yes, I agree.
449. 19:41Like oil now is actually at the
450. 19:43116 level that
451. 19:46Like this is the high of the this
452. 19:49breakdown candle, the reversal huge
453. 19:52[snorts] red candle.
454. 19:54As well as some of the some of the this
455. 19:56wicks
456. 19:57here
457. 19:58on the left side.
458. 20:00Like for
459. 20:02for short seller or for a long
460. 20:05like for
461. 20:07um
462. 20:08profit booking
463. 20:11it could be like it's a really important
464. 20:14level.
465. 20:15I don't think it will it will like
466. 20:18clear this
467. 20:19resistance easily.
468. 20:22Firstly, I got stopped out again.
469. 20:25Oh, SOS also got stopped out again.
470. 20:28Well, it looks like uh
471. 20:30market's heading lower.
472. 20:33And we're
473. 20:34probably going to get stopped out from
474. 20:35the
475. 20:36PMR and coin, too.
476. 20:40That's what I think I will
477. 20:42I'll have a 5%
478. 20:45drawdown like
479. 20:47or
480. 20:49for my whole portfolio.
481. 20:51If I get stopped out from PMR and coin
482. 20:55maybe even higher if the market
483. 20:57continues to go lower.
484. 21:00Well, the oil looks like it's
485. 21:03it's just snapping higher.
486. 21:06So, that's why it's really hard to
487. 21:09to short, especially on uh
488. 21:13uptrend. Like, do not short
489. 21:15any stocks
490. 21:17or just anything on an uptrend.
491. 21:20Or at least not
492. 21:22uh
493. 21:23being aggressive and
494. 21:26on a huge position sizing.
495. 21:29Um or I even size down
496. 21:32to below 0.3%.
497. 21:35I would say it's optional.
498. 21:38Sometimes I will, sometimes I won't.
499. 21:41And it also like depends on
500. 21:44on how much is the drawdown.
501. 21:47I think a 5% drawdown is
502. 21:49uh is okay.
503. 21:52Back to my style
504. 21:54and to my
505. 21:57number of trades and the
506. 22:00entry tactics.
507. 22:02I would [snorts] say 10% maybe.
508. 22:04Like, if I get a drawdown of 10% then
509. 22:07maybe I'll start to
510. 22:10take even smaller risk.
511. 22:13And see and no.
512. 22:15Oh, it's
513. 22:17it's at the 50-year bay.
514. 22:20Mm.
515. 22:22Slightly above the 9-year bay on the
516. 22:24weekly.
517. 22:26I don't know. Like,
518. 22:28maybe maybe.
519. 22:31I mean, given the like the
520. 22:33current
521. 22:35market
522. 22:36context, like the market is now
523. 22:38rejecting at the 21-year bay.
524. 22:41I think shorting at the 50-year bay is
525. 22:44uh
526. 22:45you can manage the risk pretty tight
527. 22:47there.
528. 22:49I I would use a like a smaller sizing
529. 22:52because the stock is a
530. 22:54a small cap and it it just gap up
531. 22:58a few days ago. So,
532. 23:00maybe there will be more news or like
533. 23:03like the catalyst coming in.
534. 23:06Yeah, always going.
535. 23:08I mean we are witnessing the history and
536. 23:11we're coming back in 5 years.
537. 23:14It will be one of the
538. 23:17special markets or like the
539. 23:20memorable markets.
540. 23:22Memorable market periods that
541. 23:26that we may
542. 23:27we may not
543. 23:29we may not see it see this again in the
544. 23:32next
545. 23:3310 years.
546. 23:34Yeah, the candle maker.
547. 23:37Candle making market.
548. 23:40IW Q
549. 23:42shooting at
550. 23:4431.
551. 23:46Mhm.
552. 23:48I don't know. Like
553. 23:50I would say for shorts is
554. 23:52um
555. 23:54like selling selling into weaknesses is
556. 23:57is very welcome.
557. 23:59It's welcome anytime.
558. 24:02But also like if you have already sell
559. 24:05some in the strength uh
560. 24:08on this on this candle or this candle,
561. 24:11then maybe you can hold a little bit
562. 24:13longer.
563. 24:14I have to wait for the close above the 9
564. 24:17EMA.
565. 24:19But for me like
566. 24:20for the shorts is like selling in the
567. 24:22strength is welcome anytime.
568. 24:25I don't know too. Like are you willing
569. 24:26to take the
570. 24:28um
571. 24:30not the losses, but like the giving up
572. 24:33the profits on of waiting it to close
573. 24:36above the 9 EMA.
574. 24:39Or you would choose
575. 24:41the potential profits on the
576. 24:43potential downside
577. 24:46which could be
578. 24:48maybe 20 or 30% more.
579. 24:50Maybe.
580. 24:52The power looks
581. 24:54looks great.
582. 24:56Actually this is
583. 24:57holding up so well.
584. 25:00It looks like a successful breakout.
585. 25:02So, I'm
586. 25:03I'm calling it a day here.
587. 25:06Uh
588. 25:07I think the close is pretty important.
589. 25:11Like if you're trading the long side,
590. 25:13you will want to see it
591. 25:15at least holding a 9 EMA.
592. 25:18And if you're trading the short side, a
593. 25:20close below the 9 EMA would be
594. 25:23favorable.
595. 25:25Would be ideal.
596. 25:26So, thank you guys for coming.
597. 25:29And see you in the next one.