martinlukkt - Watchlist rules, AVWAP, $GLD $SLV shorts and more - 12 Mar 2026 — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:24Hey, hey, hey.
2. 1:27I want
3. 1:40you.
4. 1:43Feel
5. 2:04like
6. 2:08I'm
7. 2:29Good morning, good evening and good
8. 2:31afternoon everyone. So how are you guys
9. 2:34doing from the past few days? So on the
10. 2:37Monday gap down the cues gap down into
11. 2:41the
12. 2:43um last Tuesday low
13. 2:47spy and IWM at the
14. 2:52150 EMA. So I
15. 2:55covered um the SOXS
16. 3:00near the open. I mean I think right
17. 3:03after the open
18. 3:06somewhere like 4770ish
19. 3:09area
20. 3:10also
21. 3:13also call up at the open near the low or
22. 3:18also the last Tuesday low and SNTK the
23. 3:22memory name shorts I covered it uh
24. 3:25covered them a bit late after the first
25. 3:29close above the hourly 9 EMA. So around
26. 3:33555 area for SNDK
27. 3:36and Western Digital and CK also
28. 3:39somewhere near the 9 EMA. And I I
29. 3:43covered gold on Friday and silver on
30. 3:49Monday
31. 3:51after they close above the 9 EMA as I've
32. 3:57um stressed it multiple times. So if it
33. 4:01close above the 9A then I'm I'm out.
34. 4:05Yeah. And then on Tuesday
35. 4:08I entered
36. 4:10um this D on the pull back to the EPS
37. 4:16low area.
38. 4:18So actually my plan is to pull back into
39. 4:20the 9 EMA. So around 141.
40. 4:24Yeah 141 area. And then I entered it at
41. 4:27the one minute breakout. I didn't wait
42. 4:29for the five minute because uh the fivem
43. 4:31minute candle is too wide and I bought
44. 4:34the one minute breakout and it stops me
45. 4:36out and later it found support near the
46. 4:42previous like the low of the EP day. I
47. 4:47didn't I missed the five minute
48. 4:49breakouts but I waited uh waited for the
49. 4:54I believe the anchor three were reclaim
50. 4:57and then it pulled back to the um 15 EMA
51. 5:02one minute chart and then for the
52. 5:05reclaim of the 9 EMA. I think the
53. 5:08definitely the better entry will be at
54. 5:10the 138 139 area. That will be the best
55. 5:15but I missed it. And I think it is very
56. 5:18bullish as it found support in a very um
57. 5:22sharp recovery
58. 5:24and this is a stock that I'm closely
59. 5:27monitor um after the earnings.
60. 5:31I think that yesterday u I mean Tuesday
61. 5:34is a really good shakeout day
62. 5:38and I entered a lab as well but I got
63. 5:41stopped out on Tuesday.
64. 5:43Yeah, I think on this candle but I got
65. 5:46stopped out the late day. I also um
66. 5:51bought NAPS on Tuesday
67. 5:55on the breakout of the previous candle
68. 5:57high like this is the 95 uh level
69. 6:02and I sold them all into strength
70. 6:04yesterday
71. 6:06because
72. 6:08first is that I don't quite like the
73. 6:10yesterday's action so I decided to like
74. 6:14sell one um sell one of them like for
75. 6:17for my longs the Dell and Napas
76. 6:21and then I choose selling the Napas into
77. 6:23strength because it's coming closer to
78. 6:25the previous high level and and that's
79. 6:28the the gap up. I got quite lucky on the
80. 6:31gap up and then I think there's also a
81. 6:33pretty decent gain. Then I took it off,
82. 6:36but it definitely still um stay in my
83. 6:39radar and I'm looking forward to buy buy
84. 6:42into the weakness if there's any
85. 6:44pullback or if the market improves
86. 6:48and because this market look um
87. 6:51really feel stock has a strong follow
88. 6:54through to the upside just very few. So,
89. 6:58I'm I'm willing to sell more into good
90. 7:00strength
91. 7:02unless the market improves
92. 7:05and I'm still looking for this golden
93. 7:07silver short. I think today could be a
94. 7:11maybe.
95. 7:13But yeah, I don't have don't have that
96. 7:15much um ideas to focus on today. So,
97. 7:19trying to give a
98. 7:22give an update to you guys. And this the
99. 7:24for the shorts like I've always said I'm
100. 7:27looking forward to the pull back into
101. 7:28the declining EMAs.
102. 7:31So Wednesday because
103. 7:34um Tuesday I don't don't quite like to
104. 7:36close and the
105. 7:39the defensive sector started to lose the
106. 7:42moving averages show some weakness and
107. 7:46IWM showing relative weakness on
108. 7:48Tuesday.
109. 7:50So I decided to take some shorts on the
110. 7:52Wednesday.
111. 7:54And there I I al also don't see much
112. 7:56long
113. 7:57long setups, long ideas
114. 8:00that's viable right now. So IQ at the 9
115. 8:05EMA our GTI is 21
116. 8:09at the back after the I think it's 70%
117. 8:1470 74% down from the highs and the STS
118. 8:20is um the end of VWAP from the swing
119. 8:24high as well as the this uh the swing
120. 8:28high too they're really lining up
121. 8:30together and put this from the anchor V
122. 8:36at the swing high on the 5th of March.
123. 8:41So, it's the swing high of the bounce
124. 8:43and
125. 8:45it stays under the 21 year maybe for
126. 8:47quite a while and I think the the length
127. 8:51of the base is almost there.
128. 8:55is good enough for another down leg or
129. 8:58maybe an up leg because like crypto is I
130. 9:03think it's going it's can you can it's
131. 9:06it's going somewhere like it can go both
132. 9:10way holding a nine trying to
133. 9:14break out from the 21 EMA and after all
134. 9:17the gap ups and gap downs we're still
135. 9:19inside this range
136. 9:22we haven't gone anywhere yet since early
137. 9:25February or you can say since November
138. 9:29last year
139. 9:31but still within this range. So more and
140. 9:33more leaders uh closing below the 9, the
141. 9:3721 and even the 50 day. Maybe it's too
142. 9:40early to say
143. 9:43but uh the market is definitely
144. 9:46deteriorating.
145. 9:48This do is um the only new new leader
146. 9:54that I found recently
147. 9:58pops up on my radar.
148. 10:00Next is having the how many green candle
149. 10:06it built
150. 10:0812 consecutive green candle.
151. 10:11That's pretty amazing.
152. 10:13None of them is still inside the range.
153. 10:16Maybe it's building an inside week.
154. 10:19MP also looks pretty tight and GME
155. 10:23actually looks
156. 10:25looks was quite bullish. Somehow it
157. 10:28keeps building higher lows throughout
158. 10:30the February and March.
159. 10:34Interesting.
160. 10:36Alente is now on a um pretty important
161. 10:40level
162. 10:41above the weekly nine but below the
163. 10:44weekly 21 and the 21 is trending down
164. 10:49and my feel will be leaning towards the
165. 10:52bearish sign
166. 10:54that it builds a lower high and then
167. 10:57gets rejected
168. 10:59given the market weakness.
169. 11:02The crypto names looks weaker than the
170. 11:05crypto
171. 11:07itself.
172. 11:09Wonder if this is
173. 11:11there's a sign or not. Oops. It's like a
174. 11:17just missed the entry. If you
175. 11:21put the micro shreddy chop ups and downs
176. 11:26is no how to how to set it like to put
177. 11:29it to flip it.
178. 11:32uh to flip it around. Yeah, I think
179. 11:35that's the word to flip it around. It's
180. 11:38actually looking pretty bullish.
181. 11:42Looks like breaking up from this
182. 11:45in the range
183. 11:47and near the 9 and 21 EMA, isn't it? On
184. 11:50a strong uptrend, pull back to the 50
185. 11:53EMA. Found support
186. 11:56and now it's trying to break out on the
187. 12:009 21 EMA.
188. 12:02All the crypto names are
189. 12:05near the nine. Some are under the nine,
190. 12:07some are above the nine.
191. 12:11But the stocks are weaker than the
192. 12:13crypto.
193. 12:14This is pretty interesting. And semi uh
194. 12:18semis sector is rejecting at the 21 EMA.
195. 12:21So now it's bouncing into the declining
196. 12:2421 and it found resistance. Now it's
197. 12:26gapping down and no stock is also gets
198. 12:29rejected at the
199. 12:32weekly 9 EMA too and the stop for silver
200. 12:36is a little bit too wide.
201. 12:38Hopefully can have a have a bounce into
202. 12:42the
203. 12:4386. Okay, it's bouncing into 86. That
204. 12:47will make the entry better.
205. 12:50And uh for the only long uh Dow, I'm
206. 12:55going to hold it uh until it hit my
207. 12:58stop.
208. 13:00So, I'm ready to give up this this chunk
209. 13:03of profits to trying to hold it as long
210. 13:07as possible.
211. 13:09I really think of shorting the micro
212. 13:11strategy, but I know that um it requires
213. 13:16a lot of buying powers. it it cons it it
214. 13:19consumes a lot of buying power if I'm if
215. 13:22I'm doing a shorts on a MSDR or even
216. 13:27take a long on the MSTC
217. 13:31and I already have hood so
218. 13:34I decided to like save some buying power
219. 13:37for the gold and silver shot and also
220. 13:41the arc to wanted to short the arc the
221. 13:45RK
222. 13:46also pretty decent like a bare flag or a
223. 13:50wedge higher bounced into the 50 and 150
224. 13:54EMA and now it's falling closing below
225. 13:57the 9 and 21. Today is a gap down. Yeah,
226. 14:01I think the pull back to just now is a
227. 14:04really good entry entry point. I do have
228. 14:08some shorts exposure. So I think it's is
229. 14:10it's okay.
230. 14:13EP stands for episodic pivot.
231. 14:17Either you can go um you search it on
232. 14:20Google or just
233. 14:22um take a look on the
234. 14:24on my interviews on trading line. A lot
235. 14:28of traders have covered
236. 14:30uh EPS.
237. 14:32I just I just entered I entered gold and
238. 14:35silver shot just now.
239. 14:38I'm mainly using the 4hour time frame
240. 14:39for my decision making. So gold is
241. 14:43finding rejection at the the first like
242. 14:47kind of the lower high the previous
243. 14:49swing high and also
244. 14:53trying to lose the
245. 14:55another swing high anchor V what and
246. 14:59silver is similar and crypto is actually
247. 15:02looking pretty good for now.
248. 15:05Wonder would this be a shake house for
249. 15:07the
250. 15:09crypto names because the crypto like
251. 15:12Bitcoin and Ethereum are looking pretty
252. 15:14good on a lower time frame. Uh daily
253. 15:16chart is still
254. 15:19it is
255. 15:21yeah they're riding the 9 EMA
256. 15:24still trying to push above the 21
257. 15:28hourly time 4 hour time frame is getting
258. 15:31higher lows above all the EMAs. It's
259. 15:34actually looking pretty good.
260. 15:36LR is building a pretty pretty good
261. 15:40flag. Weekly chart also looks it's
262. 15:43looking like a couple of handle. This
263. 15:46base is uh yeah we have volume picking
264. 15:49up building higher lows but the earnings
265. 15:53is next Thursday
266. 15:56and it's a little bit too choppy.
267. 15:59This MAC is going straight up. This red
268. 16:03wire is also looking pretty decent. So
269. 16:06most of them are just drones. I think
270. 16:08the drones or the
271. 16:12this is a space
272. 16:14space equipment.
273. 16:16So it's like satellite stuff. Yeah.
274. 16:19Always talking about talk about Tesla.
275. 16:22Oh, sorry not Tesla. Nvidia.
276. 16:25If it if Nvidia couldn't reclaim the
277. 16:29weakness of uh for today the
278. 16:32if it confirms it is the first lower
279. 16:35high since this earnings earnings pop
280. 16:40I mean the pop before the earnings. So
281. 16:42it's a wick off spring and a fake outs
282. 16:46to the upside
283. 16:48on the weekly chart. also
284. 16:51it's now falling under the 9 EMA already
285. 16:54and a lot of the mega cap names are
286. 16:58not looking good. So Tesla is also under
287. 17:01the EMAs
288. 17:02getting a rejection yesterday.
289. 17:06Microsoft
290. 17:08in a strong downtrend.
291. 17:10Apple just um at the 150 EMA again and
292. 17:15the the
293. 17:17um the 9 21 and 50 EMAs are now trending
294. 17:22down Microsoft falling back after they
295. 17:26bounce into the 50 EMA.
296. 17:29Meta under all EMAs
297. 17:32Google to TSM at the 50. I think all the
298. 17:37semi names are the 50 and for oil
299. 17:41I think after the this exhaustion like
300. 17:45like a exhaustion gap
301. 17:49on Monday now it's a reading higher lows
302. 17:53finding support at the 9 EMA I think the
303. 17:56next rejection is probably 105 level
304. 18:01I think there will be a higher high
305. 18:03probability of oil founding have found a
306. 18:08top at the second attempt on the upside
307. 18:12after the Monday
308. 18:15Monday flush. I think 105
309. 18:19maybe even 110
310. 18:22105
311. 18:23the previous swing uh swing high level.
312. 18:27I think the crypto is starting to break
313. 18:30out. Um yeah, but I'm not going to trade
314. 18:33this one. This one
315. 18:36still under the still still under the 50
316. 18:38EMA and uh still trending down. The 50
317. 18:43EMA is still trending down. It could be
318. 18:46tricky here like given that the crypto
319. 18:49stocks is showing too much rel relative
320. 18:53weakness.
321. 18:54Um, feel free to ask any questions
322. 18:59later in the in the stream like under
323. 19:01the stream recordings
324. 19:03and you can also you can always refer to
325. 19:05the
326. 19:07to my Twitter like the the post on DTR
327. 19:12like the interview on trader line
328. 19:15etc. So some sometimes I
329. 19:19um the answer will
330. 19:22be already there and I will answer some
331. 19:25I will answer some questions are the the
332. 19:27good ones if I have any time. I don't
333. 19:32write journal anymore.
334. 19:36I only have an Excel to
335. 19:40um to record my trace. Sometimes I will
336. 19:43still um write down some evaluations or
337. 19:47takeaways or there some mistakes that
338. 19:50I've made but it's not like a in a daily
339. 19:55basis or like a market update or a
340. 19:58market the fuse
341. 20:01on the markets or the trading ideas for
342. 20:05the coming days or weeks.
343. 20:08I did the journaling in the earlier
344. 20:12stage maybe two to three years ago. So
345. 20:16back then I'm writing
346. 20:18a journal entry every day but I
347. 20:22gradually just um lose the habit. I
348. 20:27didn't find a
349. 20:29really good
350. 20:32like a really good
351. 20:34usage case or an end goal to to utilize
352. 20:39AI in my trading.
353. 20:42And also my myself, I'm not I'm not
354. 20:46really into AI. I'm not really good at
355. 20:49AI, but I try to like um to use AI to to
356. 20:56build in daily
357. 20:58daily updates of the previous
358. 21:02of the previous strong yeah a strong a
359. 21:05leading sectors for the previous trading
360. 21:07day. But I think it doesn't work that
361. 21:11well.
362. 21:13Sometimes they are um putting stuff in a
363. 21:17wrong in the wrong sectors in the wrong
364. 21:20industry. Sometimes they are giving
365. 21:23different results when I'm asking them
366. 21:25again
367. 21:27and sometimes they're
368. 21:31um referring to the wrong the wrong
369. 21:33news, the wrong data source
370. 21:37and I'm not good enough to like fix all
371. 21:39the bucks and uh to drill it to drill it
372. 21:43down. And for my for my trading routine,
373. 21:47I will look at all the sectors and all
374. 21:50the stocks in my watches every day like
375. 21:52no matter whether
376. 21:54even if I have an AI like a good AI or a
377. 21:57good program or etc like to help me
378. 22:01helping me to to find or list out the
379. 22:05the strong sector. I'm I was still
380. 22:09flipping through my watch list the
381. 22:10sector watch list etc.
382. 22:14And I think like doing the scans and
383. 22:16managing my watch list is actually
384. 22:20providing me more and more accurate more
385. 22:23comprehensive insights than just a
386. 22:25summary table
387. 22:27or just a ranking from from AI.
388. 22:32I'm really open to like using AI to
389. 22:36elevate my trading, but uh I'm still
390. 22:39trying to find an an area that the AI
391. 22:44can can really deliver a strong edge
392. 22:47where it really improves my
393. 22:50my daily routine, my like or or any part
394. 22:54of my trading. So, um, for my
395. 22:58performance, I'm up around 40% year to
396. 23:01day, I think. I I'm not checking it like
397. 23:05daily.
398. 23:07Not sure about that, but it's like
399. 23:09around that level. I think leader list
400. 23:12is um
401. 23:14I did the potent scan
402. 23:17in the morning like Hong Kong time. So
403. 23:19it's after the market closed after the
404. 23:22after after hours of the market like
405. 23:25when the things aren't moving
406. 23:28and I found that it's the best time for
407. 23:31me to do the scans and to go through the
408. 23:34charts and finding the trade ideas for
409. 23:37the next day because the market is not
410. 23:40moving and then I can be the most
411. 23:43rational and not get influenced by the
412. 23:47by it takes up and order it or it takes
413. 23:51down from the market.
414. 23:54So I think
415. 23:56nearly all of my
416. 23:59stocks in no matter leading or mediocre
417. 24:02or the lacking watch list are from the
418. 24:05scans.
419. 24:07So CF like CF is the recent one. So I
420. 24:11when I did the scans
421. 24:13I go I'm just going going through it one
422. 24:16by one and CF I added it yesterday.
423. 24:23So it's on it's like a
424. 24:26fertilizer
425. 24:28fertilizer stocks because rising up
426. 24:32because of the Iran
427. 24:34the war in Iran and normally like the
428. 24:38stocks that I'm addicted added from the
429. 24:42watch list no matter it's like a
430. 24:44postance watch list or a premarket watch
431. 24:47list or even the leader watch list will
432. 24:50be
433. 24:51putting in the leading sector because
434. 24:54the scanners is scanning for the
435. 24:57strongest stocks in the in the current
436. 24:59market. And
437. 25:02yeah, for the leading the leading watch
438. 25:04list, um my current approach or the
439. 25:08rules that I'm using right now will be
440. 25:10the will be the stock is above the 50
441. 25:14EMA.
442. 25:15So, I'm only using the 50 EMA as like
443. 25:19for the easier interpretation.
444. 25:23and the 50 needs to be above the 150.
445. 25:27So two rules or first rule is the stock
446. 25:30the price is should be above the 50 EMA
447. 25:34and the second is the 50 EMA
448. 25:37needs to be above the 150 and the
449. 25:40lacking watch list is completely
450. 25:43opposite
451. 25:45just flipping the rules in the leading
452. 25:47watches
453. 25:48around. So the price the stock needs to
454. 25:51be under the 50 EMA and the 50 EMAs is
455. 25:56under the 150 EMA
456. 25:58and for mediocre watch list it's just
457. 26:01every anything in between. So some most
458. 26:04of like I think most of the time is the
459. 26:06stocks is above uh um somewhere between
460. 26:10the 50 and the 150 and most of them
461. 26:14they're in between the 50 and 150 and
462. 26:16then I put it into the mediocre watch
463. 26:19list.
464. 26:21Actually, I changed the rules quite
465. 26:24quite a lot since I build the three meg
466. 26:29watch lists,
467. 26:30but I'm just trying to keep them as
468. 26:33simple as possible because I'm flipping
469. 26:36through the daily chart. So, I want the
470. 26:38rules should be on only based on the
471. 26:41daily chart
472. 26:43and I wanted to involve as
473. 26:47as less as possible for the as less EMAs
474. 26:50as possible. I don't want to like
475. 26:51compare all EMAs to figure out which
476. 26:55stocks that I'm which watch list that I
477. 26:59should should I put it put the stocks in
478. 27:02and also that just that's just my
479. 27:06approach
480. 27:07because
481. 27:09I think a pull back into the 50 EMA is
482. 27:12still a like it's a really good
483. 27:15a good watershed
484. 27:18or boundary for that I still do shorts
485. 27:22if the stocks pull back into the 50 EMA
486. 27:24on the downtrend. And on the flip side,
487. 27:26I would I would look for I may look for
488. 27:28the long side if the stocks pull back to
489. 27:30the 50 EMA on an uptrend. So any stocks
490. 27:32above the 50 EMA that I'm I should be
491. 27:35only looking for the long side. So the
492. 27:38watch list is cooperating with my
493. 27:40trading style, the entry style,
494. 27:43etc.
495. 27:45If you're using the like 21 EMA
496. 27:49only like for the pullbacks, you can
497. 27:52like categorize
498. 27:54only above the 21 EMA for the leading
499. 27:58watch list for your convenience.
500. 28:01So for example, GFS up it will be
501. 28:04downgraded to the mediocre if it closes
502. 28:07below the 50 and above the 150 and SEC2
503. 28:13is going to be downgraded
504. 28:15pretty soon. Yes, I rarely set alerts
505. 28:18because most of the stocks that I'm
506. 28:21interested in I will be putting it into
507. 28:23the main watch list.
508. 28:26So for example for AK
509. 28:29case
510. 28:30like I wanted to take the shorts around
511. 28:32like the gap if it bounces back near the
512. 28:35gap level 7275
513. 28:38that will be a great spot to short
514. 28:43and
515. 28:45I think I don't need the alert if I'm if
516. 28:48I already put it put the stocks that I
517. 28:50wanted to trade that I wanted to focus
518. 28:52on into the watch list that I can can
519. 28:55really see it the what's the movements
520. 28:59and what's the recent price but
521. 29:02sometimes I do set the alerts though
522. 29:04like for if I for like a price target
523. 29:10like for example if I'm
524. 29:13if I'm short like I'm shorting IQ now
525. 29:17maybe I'll set a price target at uh
526. 29:20maybe at this like 30 at the low 30 area
527. 29:24for this previous swing low level
528. 29:28to to remind me that I I I should
529. 29:32definitely sell some into the cover some
530. 29:35into the weakness
531. 29:37by just occasionally
532. 29:40do that. How do I exactly know that the
533. 29:44stocks is breaking out on a certain day?
534. 29:48I don't know.
535. 29:50I think no
536. 29:52no one no one knows when will be the
537. 29:55exact exact time exact exact candle
538. 30:00exact one minute candle that the stock
539. 30:03is really breaking out but there's a lot
540. 30:06of different
541. 30:08um different factors that you should
542. 30:10considering such as like the I think the
543. 30:13most important one is the general market
544. 30:16for example yesterday or like the day
545. 30:19before
546. 30:20The Q is at the 50 EMA under the 50 EMAs
547. 30:23and the EMAs are trending down on a
548. 30:25downtrend.
549. 30:26Spice is weaker. IWM is even weaker. So
550. 30:30any breakouts on to uh at on tomorrow on
551. 30:34yesterday is would definitely have a
552. 30:37lower win rate. We definitely have a
553. 30:40higher chance of of a fake out with
554. 30:43something like rocket lap.
555. 30:46So it's like basing
556. 30:48is going sideways for nearly for a month
557. 30:50and a half. So we'll take the breakdowns
558. 30:53of yesterday's taken out on the Tuesday
559. 30:56high like no
560. 30:59at first like is from its own chart is
561. 31:02still like the EMAs are the nine is
562. 31:05still below the 50 definitely and it's
563. 31:08at the 50 EMA
564. 31:11and it shows
565. 31:13a lot of rejections at the 50 EMA. with
566. 31:16the market weakness
567. 31:18and the second one
568. 31:20is the sector like the sector strength.
569. 31:23So are the what is what are the others
570. 31:26um other stocks in the same sectors
571. 31:30doing?
572. 31:31So something like OMD as yesterday is
573. 31:33also
574. 31:35not a good day to enter the long side.
575. 31:39The EMA is a trend starting to trend
576. 31:41down. It is at the
577. 31:45end anchor V from the swing high. Also
578. 31:48it shows
579. 31:50this candle and this candle is showing
580. 31:52huge distribution.
581. 31:54So like the third factor will be the
582. 31:58like technically are there any signs of
583. 32:01distribution of accumulation
584. 32:04and also relative strengths etc. out
585. 32:06there or is it is it building higher
586. 32:09lows and also weekly chart I also love
587. 32:12looking at the weekly chart too so I
588. 32:15really don't like
589. 32:17NDS
590. 32:18the weekly candle of the or of last week
591. 32:23huge rejection
592. 32:25and closes very very weak but all in all
593. 32:28I think the most important factor is
594. 32:30definitely the market like the general
595. 32:32market itself
596. 32:33like if the market is
597. 32:36is down 2%. Rarely there will be any
598. 32:39stocks that is breaking up and having
599. 32:40followed through.
600. 32:42So some some charts left MP looks really
601. 32:45good yesterday and now it's falling
602. 32:48back. I made a lot of mistakes like uh
603. 32:52buying a breakout on when the in when
604. 32:54the general market is not doing good
605. 32:56back in 2021 and 2022.
606. 33:00So that's really the the lesson learned
607. 33:02and only after you're getting stopped
608. 33:05out
609. 33:07a lot of the times then you then you
610. 33:10will eventually learn learn the lesson.
611. 33:13How often do do I update my watches
612. 33:15every day?
613. 33:17So the market's bouncing at the 250
614. 33:21EMA on all indices.
615. 33:24really interesting spot here whether
616. 33:28we can find support or not.
617. 33:31A lot of the stocks are still
618. 33:34are still at the beginning of a
619. 33:36breakdown. It's not even extended yet.
620. 33:40No matter the large caps or the midcap,
621. 33:45even the small caps too. So just to see
622. 33:49if like if the market is gapping down
623. 33:52into the 150 EMA while like IQ is having
624. 33:58a flush
625. 34:00to the downside maybe on on this candle
626. 34:02or this candle right here then
627. 34:05I'll be having more conviction that the
628. 34:08market could find support on the
629. 34:12150 EMA here.
630. 34:14Now I'm a little bit skeptical.
631. 34:18I will also look for more like further
632. 34:21follow through to the downside. I think
633. 34:23there will be a higher high chance.
634. 34:26But this is only day one for Tesla,
635. 34:29day one for TSM, day one for Google, day
636. 34:33one for Meta,
637. 34:35maybe day two for Amazon.
638. 34:38And that was super strong. Somehow I I'm
639. 34:42winning a 50/50 pick. I sold Naps and
640. 34:46then keep it down and that's the
641. 34:49reversal from the crypto.
642. 34:51So actually the the crypto stocks is the
643. 34:55leading indicator for the crypto itself.
644. 34:59That's pretty interesting.
645. 35:01Why EMA not SMA? Because
646. 35:04because E is a
647. 35:07better alphabet.
648. 35:10E is the fifth alphabet
649. 35:12and S is
650. 35:15definitely S ranks
651. 35:17ranks um later in the alphabets alphabet
652. 35:22tier list, right? A B CDE E. I know the
653. 35:26sequence
654. 35:28pretty well. Yeah, that's true. S stand
655. 35:31for and E stand for excellent.
656. 35:33Exactly.
657. 35:35Maybe give a little bit respect to the
658. 35:36SMA like stand for simple. Uh no, simple
659. 35:40is actually the one. Um stands for
660. 35:42stable. Stable.
661. 35:44Why metal short?
662. 35:47Um
663. 35:49so I think some of you have has listened
664. 35:52to this to this already, but I'm going
665. 35:55to repeat it again.
666. 35:57So I think the the parabolic top off on
667. 36:01the late January like on this candle
668. 36:03here is u is the end of the metals move.
669. 36:07So a lot of So there are a lot of like
670. 36:11technically
671. 36:12weekly candle huge volume like the
672. 36:16largest volume ever.
673. 36:18I don't don't know how many times
674. 36:22uh compared to the normal volume.
675. 36:25So it's trading at the largest volume
676. 36:28candle. It's like twice volume than the
677. 36:31previous week. And actually the previous
678. 36:34week is also one of the highest volume
679. 36:35week ever.
680. 36:37So this weekly candle and as well as the
681. 36:41this reversal
682. 36:43huge reversal to the downside is uh I
683. 36:47believe it will be the end of the move
684. 36:50and that's the
685. 36:52foundation of the of this trade idea
686. 36:56and
687. 36:58after parabolic top like a really I mean
688. 37:03it's a top for at least a quarter for
689. 37:06for more than a year. For example, back
690. 37:09in 1980, like after it pops up, it falls
691. 37:14under
692. 37:15it dips for 50%.
693. 37:18In
694. 37:213 months, I think this example's
695. 37:24illustrated pretty well. After the first
696. 37:27flush uh first refer uh reversal
697. 37:31from a parabolic top,
698. 37:34usually
699. 37:36there will be a retest into the 9 EMA
700. 37:39and sometimes it will be stronger such
701. 37:42um like this this um this example back
702. 37:45in 1980.
703. 37:48It tries to build a higher low, trying
704. 37:52to break out from this range and then
705. 37:54forms a lower high and then it
706. 37:58gradually lose the 9 EMA, close below
707. 38:01the 9 EMA and then riding the 9 EMA
708. 38:04down. So there are lots of examples
709. 38:08like it's not exactly the same but they
710. 38:10are like rhyming. It rhymes.
711. 38:13But definitely like for gold if uh I
712. 38:16think
713. 38:17comparing to itself will be the
714. 38:21will be the the best ones. Even if you
715. 38:25zoom out for a longer longer time frame,
716. 38:28you can see after the you can if you
717. 38:30consider this is the first leg down and
718. 38:33then it gradually
719. 38:35recover from this uh from this base
720. 38:38breaking out and then builds another
721. 38:41you can see you can say it's a cover
722. 38:44handle pattern or VCP. So it gets really
723. 38:47tight here. It looks really good to the
724. 38:50upside and it has uh two to three weeks
725. 38:55a
726. 38:5615% around 15% move and it rejected
727. 39:01right at the previous
728. 39:04swing high level previous resistance
729. 39:06level and then it start a
730. 39:10two-year downtrend. I think Bitcoin the
731. 39:13move this this base here is also a
732. 39:15little bit similar. This one is not a
733. 39:17parabolic move but
734. 39:20um if you believe this is the top like a
735. 39:23really a top uh of a
736. 39:27how much is that 1,600% move from the
737. 39:30lows then after the first leg down then
738. 39:34that's the second attempt and this this
739. 39:37attempt actually takes out the previous
740. 39:38high
741. 39:40trying to break out like this looks a
742. 39:43pretty decent flag bull flag and is
743. 39:45trying to break felt and set up another
744. 39:48uptrend, but it felt
745. 39:50and riding the 9 year May down.
746. 39:53Another one is like this false fagan
747. 39:56fagen is uh back in 2021
748. 40:00parabolic top. So there's two attempts
749. 40:04on um setting up for for higher but it
750. 40:07fails. like here it looks like it's a
751. 40:09really really good looking bull flag
752. 40:13but eventually fades
753. 40:16although this pullbacks like after the
754. 40:18after closing below the nine losing the
755. 40:209 EMA it only reaches the 50 EMA and
756. 40:23then it has a
757. 40:26se like a one one year like nine months
758. 40:31base or
759. 40:33stage three base before the the stage
760. 40:37H4.
761. 40:38This one did didn't give this this the
762. 40:43higher lows the second attempt
763. 40:46to the upside.
764. 40:48But you can also see after it really
765. 40:50finds the top here and then it's going
766. 40:52to riding the nine down. Is it better to
767. 40:55wait for the declining nine in a bounce
768. 40:58to entry? Um that's no right or wrong.
769. 41:01Like this is this is the that's the
770. 41:03tradeoff. If you like if you don't wait
771. 41:06for it, close below the nine, then you
772. 41:09will have a higher chance of of getting
773. 41:11stopped out
774. 41:13like you can found support on the nine
775. 41:15and then bounces back. But if you wait
776. 41:18for the pullback um after the declining
777. 41:21to close below the nine and the nine
778. 41:22starts declining,
779. 41:24sometimes you don't get the entry and
780. 41:27sometimes it's just going straight down.
781. 41:31either you miss the entry or it doesn't
782. 41:35give you the give you an entry. So it
783. 41:38depends on your risk appetite, your
784. 41:42profit cushions,
785. 41:44your style, even your the confection
786. 41:49of the on the trade. I think the only
787. 41:53thing that it defines whether trade is
788. 41:56like a I don't want to put put it that
789. 41:59simply so never mind.
790. 42:02Yeah, there's no there's no right or
791. 42:04wrong. No, I rarely use the news.
792. 42:08I don't trade the news. I don't have the
793. 42:11I don't kept the maximum sizing for each
794. 42:14positions. But if I'm trading like if
795. 42:17I'm having losing streaks, not getting
796. 42:21tractions, then I'm defin definitely
797. 42:23would trade smaller,
798. 42:25how can I make sure I don't miss the
799. 42:27optimal pip?
800. 42:29You have to accept it.
801. 42:31At least I accept it because
802. 42:34sometimes you miss then you miss.
803. 42:38And if I think like certain
804. 42:42opportunities is really really really
805. 42:44really good, then you probably won't
806. 42:48going to miss it. Swing high or swing
807. 42:50low for at web. Um,
808. 42:55so for example, I'm using the swing
809. 42:57highs for the resistance.
810. 43:00That's what I'm that's what I usually
811. 43:03do. Like for resistance, I'm using the
812. 43:07swing high. For support, then I'm using
813. 43:08the swing low.
814. 43:10But but actually not like it's about
815. 43:13where like the price of um the price
816. 43:17relative to the end of Ve.
817. 43:20So for as
818. 43:24staying under under the angle VWAP. So
819. 43:28any angle of VWAP will be the
820. 43:29resistance. Even if I'm
821. 43:33putting it anchor VW up here, like if
822. 43:36I'm putting an anchor VWAP at the swing
823. 43:39low and the price is still under the VW
824. 43:42web and it's it's also a resistance and
825. 43:45it actually
826. 43:47makes this short
827. 43:51better because it's it's under all the
828. 43:54ends.
829. 43:56No matter where you anchor the anchor
830. 43:58field at they are the resistance. None
831. 44:01of them act as a support. So I think
832. 44:04it's not about how where you anchor it
833. 44:06is about where the price like is the
834. 44:09price above or below it. And I I love
835. 44:13using the swing highs more. If a stop
836. 44:17is8% using 35% of the position size will
837. 44:22be 43%.
838. 44:26I think there's also a consideration for
839. 44:29for gap risk if you are trading
840. 44:34if you're trading an ATR stock such as
841. 44:36like FU.
842. 44:38Fut is is looking fine, but
843. 44:42something like if you're trading like
844. 44:44the 10 cents, the ADR holdings like
845. 44:47that, this the this kind of a stocks has
846. 44:50a higher risk of keeping a gap up or a
847. 44:52gap down, then I'm not willing to risk
848. 44:57that much on the stocks that has a like
849. 45:01have a has a higher
850. 45:03risk of being gap down or gap up. you
851. 45:06can say like get brisk in in nature by
852. 45:10nature. So definitely like something
853. 45:13like the small caps especially the micro
854. 45:17caps
855. 45:18I'll be sizing sizing
856. 45:23I'll be sizing down like I will be more
857. 45:25cautious about of my sizing because it
858. 45:28they has a they have a higher chance of
859. 45:31of gapping down even though like it's
860. 45:34not gapping down 10% or 20% it's not a
861. 45:38huge gap down 5% gap down will will be
862. 45:41like devastating.
863. 45:44So generally I limit my like the
864. 45:46positions that I took will be around 25
865. 45:50to 30%.
866. 45:51I think the what I found the most
867. 45:54impactful
868. 45:56I believe will be the will be the
869. 45:59process of understanding yourself
870. 46:02like really knowing
871. 46:04who you are and I'm at the beginning of
872. 46:07the journey I um
873. 46:10I used to set the stop pretty wide like
874. 46:14around 5 to 8%
875. 46:17then I come across Christian is set and
876. 46:22then I set the tighter stop like I try
877. 46:25to set around 3 to 5% stop and gradually
878. 46:30after I tighten my stop I found it um I
879. 46:35found I'm pretty used to or pretty
880. 46:38feeling pretty pretty good about using a
881. 46:41type stop and getting stopped out often
882. 46:44but I can get a larger position dice
883. 46:49into a into winning position
884. 46:53and I don't have like that much of a
885. 46:56half feeling when I'm getting
886. 47:00constantly stopped out
887. 47:02and after realizing it and then I
888. 47:06started to
889. 47:08explore whether I can even like further
890. 47:12tighten my stops.
891. 47:14So reduce the my stops to the to the
892. 47:18below 2% to below 3%.
893. 47:21And that's where like I think that's is
894. 47:24probably 2024.
895. 47:27I think it's 2023 to 2024.
896. 47:31And that and my performance starts
897. 47:35lifting off like during the your
898. 47:38learning phase. You will you'll come
899. 47:41across a lot of different um different
900. 47:46style or approach from different traders
901. 47:49and the interesting thing is most of
902. 47:52them are trading training differently
903. 47:55like
904. 47:56the entry style is is a little bit
905. 47:59different. The stop settings are a
906. 48:02little bit different.
907. 48:04Even the stop picking is a little bit
908. 48:07different.
909. 48:08And back then sometimes I'm just going
910. 48:10to like copy them
911. 48:13doing exactly what what they wrote in
912. 48:16the books, what they share in the
913. 48:18podcast.
914. 48:20But eventually I'm just like I'm just
915. 48:23throw them all away.
916. 48:25Maybe not all like throw most of them
917. 48:27away.
918. 48:29I think the most important thing is
919. 48:31finding your own style and you already
920. 48:33know what
921. 48:35is your biggest edge like like the edge
922. 48:38that only you
923. 48:41possess.
924. 48:43It's okay to like copy other traders
925. 48:45approach at the beginning but gradually
926. 48:48you need to like evaluate whether this
927. 48:51um this style suits you or how can you
928. 48:54fine-tune
929. 48:56and just tweak it a little bit to makes
930. 48:59it more suitable for you. Train SC
931. 49:02settings is uh available
932. 49:05on the
933. 49:08DDR post. You can go look you can look
934. 49:11at them on the on Twitter and also the
935. 49:15interview videos.
936. 49:17But there a it's been quite a long
937. 49:19stream and I think that's it for today.
938. 49:22Thank you guys for coming and
939. 49:26we'll see you in the next