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Market Round-Up Nov 6th 2026 — Transcript

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0:01[music]
0:20>> Okay everybody, welcome to the latest
0:21market roundup podcast and as usual
0:24we're going to start with the gold
0:25chart.
0:26This is the gold monthly candle chart
0:28and it's it's on the log scale here
0:31and this is the gold forecast chart that
0:35we've been following for a while now.
0:36You'll see this chart in the roadmap
0:38section of the website which I've just
0:41updated actually. So all of the charts
0:43in the
0:44roadmap section of the website
0:47they've all been they've all been
0:48updated along with the summary notes
0:50that that go with them.
0:53So what we've got here is the
0:56by now well-known cup and handle pattern
0:58for gold that projected the price
1:00through the wedge that's been forming
1:03ever since the
1:06peak there back in 1980 if I put it on
1:08the line chart. Bear in mind we're on
1:10the monthly chart here.
1:11That's the monthly line chart and you
1:13can see the critical resistance that we
1:14broke through and we acknowledge that
1:17resistance there when we hit the
1:21the Fibonacci well it's not Fibonacci
1:23number one is it but it's a full
1:24extension of the
1:27of the move.
1:29So you start off all the way down here.
1:32That's your first anchor point down here
1:34at $250 or so then your second anchor
1:37point is up here
1:39around about $1,900 and then the third
1:41anchor point for the Fibonacci extension
1:44tool
1:45is down here at around about just over
1:47$1,000 and then that projects your
1:50Fibonacci levels
1:52from
1:53from that and upwards.
1:55So the 0.618 extension was around about
1:58the $2,000 level we broke out of.
2:00We
2:02encountered the one
2:04um extension, the full uh extension
2:07there at around about $2700
2:10and then we got the 1.618 and 2.618
2:12extensions, which on the monthly basis
2:15we were very
2:16just about almost exactly on the uh
2:182.618 extension there at five and a half
2:20roughly five and a half thousand just
2:22little bit below that.
2:24And
2:25as we became extremely extended there,
2:28we'd suggested
2:30that a long and deep correction was the
2:32likely outcome.
2:34And when we add the three-year moving
2:35average and the Ichimoku cloud on there
2:37as well, we get added context that tells
2:38us that we're in a bull
2:40phase above both of those things
2:43and that if we come down to test the
2:44three-year moving average, it's
2:46currently at $3370
2:48and the Fibonacci support level is
2:50around 3000s.
2:52Excuse me. Hate it when that happens.
2:54Around about $3700.
2:56Um so
2:58somewhere in that ballpark, 33 to $3700
3:01is kind of acting as a bit of a magnet
3:03at the moment and we have dipped below
3:05$4000 at one point and we're back
3:08uh just a fraction above $4000. So
3:10you know, we we're kind of there or
3:11there abouts. We went down to $3800 and
3:14and something. And I've said before that
3:16anywhere below $4000 for gold and $55
3:19for silver is perfectly reasonable price
3:22level to be accumulating for the long
3:24term or if you're a stacker.
3:26Uh and for trading um of course we use
3:28our five-star trading
3:30uh methodology,
3:32uh SRS trading methodology and so for
3:34that we need to get a clear basing
3:36pattern and then a breakout from that
3:38base
3:39from which we can uh enter trading
3:41positions.
3:42Now moving on to silver
3:44and silver um has broken back below the
3:47$55 to $57 level that was acting as
3:50support. If I put it on the weekly
3:52chart, you can see and I put the candles
3:54on, you can see we tested that $55 to
3:57$57 level back in July and then we were
4:00testing it in October before finally
4:02breaking through and down below that.
4:05So that brings into focus this sort of
4:07Fibonacci support level and the edge of
4:10the arc here which
4:11likely to be anywhere around about $46
4:13$47
4:15that that sort of figure and we've
4:16already been very close to that. So
4:18as I say anywhere below $55 or even
4:20better anywhere below $50 would be
4:23fine for longer term accumulating and
4:26again we need some sort of basing
4:28pattern to form here before we can
4:31enter a trading setup. So one possible
4:35example of that that I'll just
4:37illustrate for you would be
4:39here.
4:41If we get a base forming below that red
4:42line we've already had it as support now
4:45we've had it as resistance in August.
4:48If we come back test that red line and
4:50then then pull back a little bit and
4:51then finally break out sometime next
4:53year
4:54then that and it doesn't have to be late
4:56next year the whole thing could happen
4:59on a on a shorter time frame of course
5:00you can you know this is just a
5:03a very broad brush
5:04example of
5:06how the breakout might occur but we just
5:08need to wait for some sort of
5:09confirmation of a basin here
5:11and then a breakout so it's going to be
5:12somewhere in the high 60s or low 70s
5:15where we would
5:16be thinking potentially about a five
5:18star
5:20continuation pattern SRS
5:23continuation pattern.
5:26Okay gold versus the S&P is really
5:28useful for us because it's the capital
5:30rotation chart or it's one of the major
5:32capital rotation charts and it's
5:34behaving much as we might have hoped
5:37in that the rotation
5:39is continuing to take place away from
5:41stock markets and towards gold because
5:44for the last
5:4510 years or more in fact the stock
5:47market hasn't made any progress against
5:48gold or priced in gold and in fact since
5:51the low in 2021
5:54we are putting in a series of putting in
5:56higher lows
5:58for the
5:59for the ratio
6:01which means that gold is gaining
6:02momentum against the S&P
6:04and the final confirmation of that would
6:06be
6:07if and when we break out through that
6:09red line. Let's pop it on the line chart
6:11again for you
6:12um and zoom back out to show you the
6:151980 top. And you can see 1980
6:19uh joins very nicely to 2011 there and
6:23then onto 2020 January 2026 or
6:27in fact it was
6:29well it was Q1 of 2026 anyway whether it
6:31was January, February or March the ratio
6:33the ratio peaked in Q1.
6:35Um
6:36pop the candles on.
6:39We can see that it
6:40it peaked anywhere between there's a
6:43couple of peaks there one in January.
6:45It was
6:46rising again in February and there was
6:48another peak there in March so
6:50the ratio peaked and then it's pulled
6:52back. That means gold is underperforming
6:54the S&P so we're now looking for some
6:55sort of a
6:57a rebound. We could move it a little bit
6:59lower with gold underperforming the S&P
7:01a little bit more but it needs to
7:02rebound after or above about 0.48
7:06on the ratio.
7:08Moving on to gold versus Nasdaq.
7:12I'm focusing here on the more important
7:14signals that are coming out of the
7:15charts and so um
7:17um
7:19then let's just show you this gold
7:20versus Nasdaq chart because
7:23it's bouncing on important support and
7:25uh whilst I'm talking to you I'm just
7:26putting the 48 month moving average on
7:28there as well because uh
7:29we have that on some of these charts.
7:33Uh that's the four year moving average.
7:34So you can see that we are back down
7:37just below the four year moving average
7:39at the moment testing the Ichimoku
7:40cloud, some horizontal support and that
7:42rising red support line. So
7:45um gold is
7:47and fortunately has bounced off that
7:49level which is good. Could we needed it
7:51to
7:52um and
7:54if we're right about the capital
7:56rotation process then over time although
7:58there will be ups and downs over time
8:01we're looking for a pattern like this to
8:02form as we had back in the early 2000s.
8:05Yes there were some big pullbacks where
8:06the Nasdaq outperformed gold. And we had
8:08a period here between 2002
8:112005 where
8:13gold did not outperform the Nasdaq. But
8:15you can see
8:16from you know from 2000 all the way up
8:19to 2012 there taken as a whole gold
8:21outperformed the Nasdaq.
8:23So that's what we're looking for
8:25to start
8:27you know we're looking for the growing
8:28evidence to show that that's
8:30the case here.
8:32We look at now the
8:35silver versus Nasdaq chart.
8:38Similar sort of thing doesn't really
8:39tell us anything that the previous chart
8:40didn't tell us just that we are getting
8:42a
8:44steady and gradual increase in momentum
8:47upwards which means that silver is
8:49starting to gain momentum versus Nasdaq
8:52overall.
8:53Now looking at the mining indices this
8:55is SILJ and we've got a trade set up
8:59there for you for Silver Juniors and
9:01we've got the entry
9:04the profit limit and the stop loss all
9:06there. This is a trade idea
9:08suggestion
9:10and so that's all set up for you there
9:12you can
9:13make of that what you will but the idea
9:15is that in any correction the price
9:18should not fall below the
9:20the red line there
9:23and in fact we've got the stop loss all
9:24the way down below the black support
9:26line so we've got almost a six to one
9:28reward to risk that should play out over
9:30a number of years it's not going to
9:31happen overnight of course.
9:34Looking at the GDX chart for gold miners
9:37and GDX also looking pretty strong
9:40actually the miners have been holding
9:43holding up relatively well
9:45during this pullback the ratios versus
9:48the metal have been holding up.
9:52Of course that may change at the drop of
9:54a hat if we get a market meltdown and we
9:56may see these pullbacks coming all the
9:58way back to test support levels but here
10:01we are with GDX versus gold and the
10:03point to note here is that we're forming
10:05a base
10:06and
10:07all of this is kind of noise in the
10:09bottom of this base. What we're looking
10:11for is a signal
10:12and
10:14you know, it's it's a case of the signal
10:15and the noise. There's lots of noise in
10:17here and if when we break out above
10:18these double red lines, then that'll be
10:20a signal because we'll be breaking out
10:22above clear overhead horizontal
10:24resistance and the chart going up means
10:27that GDX is outperforming gold. So we'll
10:29get a signal on a breakout through here
10:32that GDX is intent on outperforming gold
10:36and that would be in the context of a
10:39bullish phase for the
10:41for the sector.
10:44Moving on now to other charts that give
10:46us added
10:48information. So let's have a look at
10:49these silver miners ETF actually. That's
10:52SIL and that one
10:55is also
10:57just bouncing at the moment. It's below
11:00a declining
11:02me just
11:04put the
11:06the 36 month moving average back on
11:08here.
11:11It was below a declining
11:139 10 11 12 month moving average, but the
11:1536 month moving average
11:17is still rising and we're above the
11:18Ichimoku cloud.
11:20And you can see very clearly a deep
11:22correction there from somewhere around
11:24about the 120 mark and we've been all
11:26the way down to around about 70. So
11:28it's too early to say that the
11:30correction is over at this point. We
11:32haven't got any evidence to
11:35to say that we can be confident about
11:36the correction being over.
11:38But we've got GDXJ here and we've got
11:40two trades for the GDXJ ETF. That's the
11:45junior gold miners.
11:46And trade number one is
11:48we're we're in profit with this one.
11:50We're sort of
11:51between a third and a half of the way
11:53through that trade.
11:55And trade number two had the same entry
11:57level, but much higher profit limit
11:59and a much lower stop loss just
12:01depending how long you want to be
12:03in that particular trade. Both of them
12:05are going to be pretty long term though.
12:07We came very close to hitting the profit
12:10limit on trade number one.
12:12Very very close. Um,
12:14a little bit annoying, but that's the
12:16way it goes sometimes. Um,
12:18perhaps we could have had our profit
12:20limit just a few pennies lower, but
12:23that's the way it goes.
12:24Uh, trade number two as well is is there
12:27and you can see the um
12:30the entry levels,
12:32the entry price, 84 86
12:35was the entry price. The profit levels
12:37were 158 and 300 respectively and the
12:40stop losses were 63 80 and 45
12:43respectively. So we'll see how those
12:44trades play out over time.
12:48Now the gold silver ratio is really
12:50helpful to us at the moment because
12:53we've got a rising wedge pattern
12:56and the rising wedge broke to the
12:57upside, which they do do sometimes.
12:59Rising wedges are known for being
13:01bearish, but sometimes you get these
13:02upside breakouts and they can
13:06end up being false breakouts and when
13:08they are, price starts to move in the
13:10opposite direction, it can be quite
13:12swift. So again, we're waiting for a
13:14signal here and we had a one signal was
13:17given when we broke out above that
13:18resistance line and the signal was
13:21to not be bullish
13:22on gold and silver just yet and because
13:25a rising gold silver ratio is not really
13:27what you want in a reliable
13:31bullish phase.
13:32So if this little pattern here
13:36can zoom in a little bit more onto the
13:38sub daily time frame if you want to and
13:39maybe look at it on the four hour time
13:42frame, you can see there's a little bit
13:43of a flag pattern building out here.
13:46So waiting to see see which way that
13:48flag breaks, any kind of movement below
13:51around about 77.6 and that will be
13:55most likely to trend downwards and any
13:57movement above about 80.6 and that's
14:00likely to
14:02to certainly be testing this zone above
14:04that stretches all the way up to around
14:05about 84 and a half. So
14:08it's
14:09we're not in a position at the moment to
14:11be able to say
14:13in with with confidence that the
14:14correction is
14:16Um, we need to get a definitive upside
14:19break from this little flag pattern or a
14:21definitive downside break.
14:23Um, and really we can't say too much
14:25with any level of confidence in a
14:28bullish sense until we get back within
14:30this pattern and below that former
14:32resistance line.
14:34Okay, SIL versus Silver.
14:37Um, I'm going to zoom out now onto the
14:38monthly time frame just to show you that
14:40um the SIL index during this correction
14:43has actually been moving up versus
14:45Silver. So the miners have been um
14:47performing well um versus Silver and
14:49SILJ also has been holding up at these
14:52quite high levels versus Silver and it
14:54looks like it's wanting to break through
14:55the upper resistance zone there.
14:58So Silver Juniors are poised
15:01potentially to to do really well here
15:04and it's perhaps an early indication of
15:06an impending
15:08bullish resolution, but um it's just a
15:10little bit too early to have a high
15:12degree of confidence on that.
15:14Silver Juniors versus the S&P. Well, we
15:16had the breakout uh quite a while ago.
15:19Um, it was back in
15:21June of 2025 or July roundabout there
15:24and we got the breakout and we're now
15:25we're forming some sort of consolidation
15:27pattern for Silver Juniors versus the
15:28S&P, but we're now above the 36-month
15:32moving average and we're to all intents
15:34and purposes above the Ichimoku cloud as
15:36well. So that's
15:37all pretty bullish indications for
15:39Silver Juniors versus the S&P.
15:41And looking at the HUI index as well,
15:44yeah, well that one
15:46became very extended and has been
15:48pulling back and it would have made
15:49perfect sense if it came all the way
15:50down to test the
15:52support line there. That hasn't happened
15:54yet and I just have to keep repeating
15:56that we can't have a high degree of
15:57confidence that everything is going to
15:59be rocketing upwards to the moon just
16:01yet until we get some confirmation from
16:03things like the
16:05gold silver ratio for example.
16:08Now moving on to the next charts that
16:10give us some added information here. Um,
16:12I suppose looking at platinum futures is
16:14is useful because uh platinum does have
16:16periods of outperformance versus gold
16:19um but that's not the case at the
16:20moment. I'll show you that chart in a
16:23minute, actually, the platinum gold
16:24ratio. But if I just put the um
16:27I want the 48 month moving average on
16:29here.
16:30If I can just pop that on.
16:33Uh the platinum chart is coming back to
16:37um
16:38to back test
16:40the
16:42or has been coming back to back test
16:44these lower support levels and um would
16:46make a lot of sense if we back tested
16:48the edge of the arc there somewhere
16:49around about 1250
16:51or $1,300. We haven't quite dipped that
16:53low yet.
16:54Uh so time will tell
16:56whether or not we get a back test, full
16:58back test like we did back in 2001 as
17:00the capital rotation event was
17:02unfolding.
17:04Um we could be
17:06at that
17:07comparable point um now.
17:11Platinum versus gold
17:13is not breaking out. So you know as
17:15always you know we can use these ratio
17:17charts to tell us which of two
17:19instruments we should be favoring. And
17:22if the two instruments that you're
17:23comparing is platinum and gold, then um
17:27gold is the favored metal at the moment
17:29until we break out through the moving
17:31average in the Ichimoku cloud, at which
17:33point
17:34we can have a higher degree of
17:36confidence that the platinum is going to
17:38be in favor.
17:40Uh looking at palladium now and
17:41palladium
17:42uh
17:43has had a
17:44harsh back test all the way to the
17:47um support line. We broke out through
17:49it, moved up to resistance, then
17:52as you know as you'll see illustrated in
17:54the knowledge base,
17:56when you break out from these down
17:58trending resistance lines, you kind of
18:00jump upwards and if you fall back down,
18:03you're going to fall to a level that's
18:04lower than the point when you broke out.
18:07So that was the case here and so this
18:09red resistance level is the all
18:10important level now. So around about
18:131768 for palladium futures, that would
18:16be where the market becomes um
18:18structurally much more bullish.
18:22Looking at copper futures and we've got
18:24a trade, of course, in copper and we're
18:26going through a
18:30a meaningful correction at the moment.
18:33This rising wedge has
18:36broken down to the downside. We're now
18:38testing
18:42sort of the 12 month I've got the 48
18:43week moving average on here, but it's
18:45approximately the 12 month moving
18:46average.
18:48We're testing that coming down towards
18:50the top of the weekly Ichimoku cloud as
18:52well, so we want to stay above that
18:54to remain bullish just because of
18:56breaking down from a wedge like this
18:58doesn't automatically mean it's going to
18:59come all the way down
19:01to $5 again, although it may it may do.
19:05You can't rule that out.
19:07And that was our entry point around
19:08about $5. The stop loss is at 3.99 and
19:11the profit limit is $8 on that.
19:14So that trade will be left to play out,
19:17of course, and the GlobalX Copper Miners
19:20also
19:22breaking down from this symmetrical
19:24triangle pattern [clears throat] and may
19:26come back to back test the support line
19:31here. There was a potential entry on
19:32this trade
19:33on a breakout and that is still the
19:35case, so I've got this
19:37trade
19:38idea, you could call it, just waiting to
19:40be
19:42sort of utilized, but we haven't we
19:44haven't broken out yet. We've got to get
19:46to that entry level. That hasn't
19:47happened yet, so there's no entry. There
19:49has been no entry on the GlobalX Copper
19:51Miners ETF, but on a confirmed breakout
19:53here, if and when that happens, then
19:57then that would be a
19:59either a trade idea or an SRS post
20:02potentially.
20:03The copper index, United States copper
20:05index fund, same sort of thing. We've
20:07been saying that
20:10a smaller correction within a larger
20:13ongoing bull market was likely
20:15and that's
20:17that's sort of taking place at the
20:18moment and we're not going to be
20:21all out bullish on uh until this chart
20:23breaks out. Let me just
20:25zoom it out a bit. There you go. Copper
20:28versus the S&P.
20:30And you can see as the capital rotation
20:32event took hold in late 2001 2000 early
20:352002
20:37the copper chart started skyrocketing
20:40versus the S&P and um we need to see the
20:43same thing happen again uh in order for
20:45us to go
20:47all guns blazing with with copper.
20:49That's not been the case yet, so we're
20:51going to just hold our horses until
20:53until that happens.
20:55Copex versus um copper, so it's the
20:59copper miners versus copper.
21:01Um they've been
21:03gaining strength and gaining momentum
21:05and we're in a consolidation box here at
21:06the moment awaiting the next significant
21:08move. Copex versus the S&P
21:12well it's in the early stages of a
21:13breakout
21:15pullback uh at the moment um subjective
21:19just how you draw that support and
21:20resistance line.
21:22Could be something a little bit like
21:23that, so you could say that we're back
21:25testing the uh back testing the breakout
21:27above the moving average above the
21:28Ichimoku cloud.
21:30Uh so that's still um a bullish
21:33correction.
21:34It's so on a short time frame time frame
21:37you would be bearish, but on the long
21:38time frame you would be
21:40uh potentially bullish on that.
21:42Copper versus gold oh sorry copper
21:44miners versus gold I should say.
21:46Uh we haven't got the major breakout
21:48that we're looking for on that
21:50either, but it will be very clear
21:53if and when it does happen and that's
21:54really going to help us to have the
21:55confidence that we would like
21:57if we want to be um
22:01more you know significantly more bullish
22:03on the on the sector.
22:05Okay moving away from copper now and
22:07moving on to uh nickel futures.
22:10Uh nickel futures bouncing on important
22:12support there, so I'm focusing on this
22:14area here around the moving average, the
22:16green resistance line and the horizontal
22:18black dashed resistance lines, so we get
22:21nickel futures pushing through around
22:22about 19,000
22:24um US dollars per ton then that would be
22:27where I would be getting much more
22:28bullish.
22:29Tin Futures,
22:31back testing um
22:33I mean I've drawn that line there. It's
22:34only got two touches
22:36you know the
22:37peak there back in 2022
22:40and the back test um earlier on this
22:43year.
22:44But it's a potential pivot line and we
22:46could
22:47see a resumption of a bullish
22:50trend
22:51from roughly this
22:53point actually but only time will tell
22:55on that. But overall it's still bullish
22:56above the moving average
22:59above the Ichimoku cloud. So long term
23:01it's still in a bullish configuration.
23:04Um as is aluminium or aluminium
23:07um
23:08you're across the other side of the pond
23:09to me.
23:10Um
23:11pretty much of a cup and handle pattern
23:12actually that. Um it's got that sort of
23:15look to it. Um big base, big upside move
23:19then a smaller
23:21pattern I think a smaller pattern
23:23developing here but the the level to
23:25[clears throat] watch is that red red
23:27line there. So somewhere around about
23:28three and a half thousand US dollars.
23:31The VanEck Steel ETF just undergoing a
23:33correction at the moment but it's still
23:35in a bullish
23:37um setup above the moving average and
23:39above the Ichimoku cloud. So when you're
23:41below them
23:43like on the left hand side here
23:45you can see that this is all bearish
23:46stuff and when you're above them
23:49um it helps with the bullish evidence.
23:51Yes we are above the moving average in
23:53the Ichimoku cloud here but we we hadn't
23:55sort of
23:57it was unconvincing let's say let's put
23:59it that way. Whereas now we've got some
24:00very clear horizontal breakout lines.
24:02We've broken through them. So we can put
24:05it in context and say that we as long as
24:07we're above those that moving average
24:09then
24:10we can remain pretty bullish on it
24:12longer term.
24:13Zinc Futures I thought would probably
24:15come back for a more significant
24:17pullback and at the moment we're in our
24:19third month of price just consolidating
24:22still at the moment. And WisdomTree Zinc
24:24is also in its third month of pullback
24:28um correction whatever you want call it,
24:29but within a set within a a bigger
24:32picture of um bullishness.
24:35Zinc versus gold instantly as well has
24:37been doing pretty well after its big
24:39breakdown last year. There's a big
24:42reversal and so zinc has been
24:45redeeming itself, shall we say, um
24:47priced in gold.
24:49Uh rhodium um some kind of flag pattern
24:52there
24:53by the looks of it and any move through
24:56around about $1,200
24:58would see us being much more bullish on
25:01rhodium.
25:02Iron ore um nothing exciting about the
25:05iron ore chart at the moment. The
25:07Invesco DB Base Metals fund is behaving
25:11just as you would expect really. It's in
25:14the top right hand corner of this
25:16arc pattern that that built out. Uh
25:18we're consolidating.
25:21I think the next
25:23significantly bullish phase really will
25:24start above the 26 uh $26 level, $26.18
25:29I've got on there, but once we start
25:31clearing above that the target would be
25:33somewhere near $40 or at least the first
25:35target would be anyway.
25:37Uh uranium's had a terrible time of it.
25:39Not so much the metal itself. The metal
25:41itself here, uranium spot price is doing
25:44just fine holding above $90, but the
25:47uranium miners really got whacked hard
25:51um pulling all the way back from
25:53somewhere in the mid 60s or even
25:56in into the opposite well yeah the mid
25:5860s I think it's somewhere around about
25:5962 63 somewhere around there [gasps] um
26:02and we've fallen all the way down to um
26:05well we're at 32 at the moment, but we
26:07were at one point
26:09um a little bit lower than that, so
26:1250% drop um all the way down to
26:14important support. There's some
26:15horizontal support there. We've got the
26:19um
26:20three sorry I beg your pardon got the
26:22four year moving average there. We've
26:23got the Ichimoku cloud just a little bit
26:25lower down on that support line
26:27um so we need to see a reversal pretty
26:32Let's see how this candle closes out at
26:33the end of the month, but I've adjusted
26:35the arc here
26:36to
26:37um
26:39pull it outwards in time, which
26:40effectively
26:42although it keeps the same target price,
26:43it pushes the target um time out closer
26:47towards 2029
26:49I would I would say probably we may need
26:51to extend the arc out a little bit
26:52further if the arc pattern indeed
26:55continues to prove itself as valid.
26:57Uh Uranium versus Gold little bit of an
26:59up move today
27:01um but
27:04it's not it's I mean what we're looking
27:06for here is the Uranium Miners to break
27:08out versus Gold and clearly
27:10um Uranium Miners [clears throat] have
27:11not broken out versus Gold, so until
27:14they do uh Gold is the um is the choice.
27:18Uh Uranium versus Silver oh sorry
27:20Uranium Miners versus Silver
27:22uh it's bounced where it needed to uh
27:25just a little bit um off support there
27:27um but there's nothing there's no
27:29breakout um we need to get the ratio
27:32back above the moving average in the
27:33Ichimoku Cloud
27:35uh and ideally through this declining
27:37resistance line before we can get really
27:39excited about uh Uranium Miners.
27:42Uranium Miners versus Gold and Silver
27:43Miners GDX versus GDXJ
27:46um still in a decline still in this
27:49wedge pattern indicative of something
27:52um quite big and impressive happening
27:55um in the next year or two
27:57I would suggest but we can't take that
27:59as being guaranteed but it does suggest
28:02that um we could see something quite
28:03exciting happening
28:05um in the not too distant future in
28:07other words a big upwards move for
28:09Uranium Miners versus Gold and Silver
28:11Miners
28:12uh and also the Uranium Miners versus
28:14the S&P
28:15sitting on very important support there
28:18on this rising expanding
28:21um pattern that we've been building out
28:23for about six years now.
28:25Uh Uranium Miners versus Uranium the
28:27Metal um all the way back down at low
28:30valuations so all the way down here the
28:33miners are
28:35uh low valuations versus the metal.
28:37Um so you could view that as a region of
28:40opportunity I suppose but uh
28:43we need more evidence of course. Uh
28:45sugar um
28:47well sugar's been doing uh pretty well.
28:49They had a
28:50good two or three months there and uh
28:52got all the way up to the target level
28:54on that uh that red support uh well
28:58red resistance line um
29:01not till we break through that can we
29:02say that the target is $26 or so and not
29:06till we break out to around about $28
29:09could we uh really consider um a high
29:12confidence trade.
29:14And but that is waiting in the wings for
29:16us uh at some point in the future if if
29:18it unfolds that way.
29:20Soybean futures uh remains within this
29:23arc or cup pattern
29:25slowly being guided up towards 1500
29:28um
29:31cents that is uh 1500 cents per bushel I
29:34think that is the unit of measurement.
29:36Uh corn uh futures
29:40uh not doing anything very exciting at
29:41the moment. It's still just um
29:46yeah we've had well a sort of upwards
29:47move down up down is there's no nothing
29:50sort of tradeable there nothing that you
29:51can
29:52sort of hang your hat on.
29:54And to cream corn fund again uh there's
29:56nothing we can do in terms of
29:59suggesting a you know a bullish outlook
30:01on that until we pass through that red
30:02circle or wherever the
30:05wherever that red circle happens to be
30:07if we have a breakout above that uh
30:09black resistance line there. So that's
30:10that's the line that we've got our eye
30:12on.
30:13Um
30:14let's get rid of that blue line cuz it's
30:15not not really helping very much. Uh
30:17wheat futures
30:19hit the first target level having
30:21bounced off support now um there's
30:23nothing
30:24we can
30:25be positive about until we get a break
30:27through that target level and then that
30:29will open up the technical pathway to
30:31the second target.
30:32Could be quite a long way in the future
30:34though.
30:35Uh oat futures um
30:37false breakout um, from that
30:40uh, consolidation pattern. We got a big
30:42move to the upside and then it just
30:44flamed out and came back under the
30:46under those resistance lines and it's a
30:48reminder that as long as you're below
30:49the Ichimoku cloud you don't have all of
30:51the weight of evidence behind you and
30:53uh, it wasn't something that we
30:54considered putting the SRS. The chart
30:56itself is not a five star SRS setup.
31:00It's a little bit messy to be honest and
31:02not uh, doesn't inspire confidence.
31:05Cotton futures again another fairly
31:07messy chart. A lot of these soft
31:08commodities charts are highly volatile
31:11and
31:12don't lend themselves very well to the
31:14SRS five star trading system. But what I
31:17can say is that until we break out
31:19through around about $94 per pound for
31:23cotton futures then um, there's not
31:25really anything
31:27particularly bullish about that um,
31:29about that chart.
31:31Coffee futures um, nothing we can do
31:33with that either in terms of suggesting
31:35a trade at the moment. It would need to
31:36break out upwards through about $3.91
31:41that kind of area. We're a long way off
31:43that at the moment. Cocoa futures well
31:46that doesn't surprise me. We've had a
31:48a dead cat bounce you could call it.
31:50We've hit resistance at the three year
31:52moving average in the Ichimoku cloud and
31:54we're getting rejected. So
31:56the most likely path for that would be
31:57all the way back down to support
31:59um,
32:01and in any case the the point at which
32:03we would start getting bullish again is
32:05on a breakout above those double green
32:07lines which uh, clearly hasn't happened
32:09yet.
32:10Uh, rice futures is to all intents and
32:13purposes at the target. The target being
32:16$18.58 sorry $80.85
32:19um, we're at 18.25 at the moment. So
32:22that's good enough for me um,
32:25where wherever you draw that
32:26black dotted line it's open to
32:28interpretation and it's also very
32:30subjective but
32:32um,
32:34expecting it to hit that solid black
32:35line is
32:37uh, Uh it's asking a bit too much but
32:39um, we're we're within a few cents of
32:41the target. So that would be if you
32:44happened to be trading that, that would
32:45be your profit taking spot.
32:47Um and not until we break out above
32:49about $19
32:5150 would would that be the
32:54um a renewed trading opportunity.
32:57Um Invesco DB Agriculture Fund.
33:00Well that one is right on support at the
33:02moment. Um
33:05it's
33:06it
33:07kind of broke out there. In fact it did
33:09did break out if you drew it like like I
33:11had it with a resistance line there.
33:13That was a breakout and it was a false
33:15breakout and
33:17came back down to
33:19support. So it that trade stop that
33:22trade idea stopped out.
33:25Um if you were
33:27using that particular trade idea. Now
33:29we're right on support
33:31um and
33:34it's tricky now isn't it to to get a
33:36clear breakout level. It's not a five
33:37star setup although it's bullish. It's
33:40above the Ichimoku cloud and it's just
33:42resting on the three year moving
33:43average. So it's still keeping its sort
33:46of overall bullish structure but in
33:48terms of trying to pick a trade on that
33:50I suppose if you took an entry now you'd
33:52set your stop loss somewhere around
33:53about $25
33:55and your profit limit
33:57um probably somewhere up here. Um
33:59similar to where I've got it on that
34:00trade setup there
34:02which which was somewhere around about
34:0332 or so.
34:06The Tokheim Agriculture Fund um didn't
34:09break out there but what it has done
34:11it's given a very clear
34:13resistance line um little bit like the
34:16gold to S&P ratio actually. Uh we've got
34:18a very clear resistance line there and
34:20the breakout would be somewhere in the
34:21region of $28 just a little bit above
34:24$28 and that would be a a potential
34:26trading opportunity there with a stop
34:29loss somewhere down near 20
34:31what would it be 26
34:35and a half somewhere around there.
34:36Profit limit around 33.
34:39Uh Lithium um not bullish at all. Put it
34:41on the weekly time frame. There's
34:42nothing bullish about that at the
34:43moment.
34:44Live cattle futures.
34:47Well, there's something bullish about
34:48live cattle futures regardless of what
34:50the price is doing.
34:51Um but it looks toppish to me.
34:54Um I think that one
34:55is on the slide. It got a
34:58it's almost like a tilted head and
34:59shoulders top sort of pattern. So that
35:02one's one to,
35:04as I've said previously, um to avoid for
35:06now
35:07um until that
35:09becomes um
35:13until it becomes more positive, which it
35:15which it just isn't at the moment. That
35:16looks like a topping pattern to me. I
35:17mean, we are still above the three year
35:18moving average in the Ichimoku cloud,
35:20but it's just that structure um doesn't
35:22inspire confidence.
35:24Um
35:25the Invesco DB agri in
35:29say that again, the Invesco DB Commodity
35:30Index Tracking Fund
35:32is above the um Ichimoku cloud and the
35:35moving average and above the breakout
35:37lines there.
35:38Pulling back uh on a back test, but
35:41overall um I don't have any major
35:43concerns with that one.
35:45Um it's still heading in the overall
35:47general direction that we would expect
35:50um albeit with corrections along the
35:52way.
35:53The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures uh
35:56chart is also consolidating and
35:59correcting and these consolidations and
36:01corrections can last
36:02many many months um but overall that
36:05doesn't stop you
36:07you know being bullish as long as you
36:09remain above key support levels um key
36:13you know former resistance lines which
36:15are now support lines. So in other
36:17words, as long as we remain above that
36:18red line there um
36:20then that's not um it's not a major
36:22breakdown
36:23um in terms of the overall
36:26trend and direction.
36:28Uh the Thomson Reuters CRB Index also
36:31big upside move there um from the
36:34breakout point. The profit limit was
36:37reached no the profit limit the measured
36:38move was reached around about $390
36:41and then um can we put it down on the on
36:44the weekly time frame there
36:46um if we're going to get a measured
36:47another measured move
36:51um
36:53the target would probably be somewhere
36:54around about 480 or so but the pattern
36:56that's building out at the moment is a
36:58little bit
37:01uh difficult to discern to be honest I'm
37:04not quite sure
37:07what this is going to end up being
37:10um
37:12I don't know
37:14quite what sort of a technical chart
37:15pattern is forming there at the moment
37:16it looks looks very volatile
37:19um
37:20right now
37:21uh oil
37:23I'm going to zoom right out on the oil
37:24chart because I'm just going to repeat
37:26what I've been saying
37:27for
37:30a couple of years now actually is that a
37:31breakout from this yellow triangle
37:34wedge
37:35uh suggested a test of the target zone
37:37was going to happen and that's happened
37:39a couple of times in fact
37:41um and now
37:43you know we are trapped in this
37:44correction consolidation box this orange
37:46box that stretches from
37:48around about 112 dollars all the way
37:50down to
37:51around about 70 dollars or so
37:54and we're going to be bouncing around in
37:55that until
37:57um in our view anyway or in my view and
38:00I think Pat's view as well we get an
38:02upside breakout and we believe that
38:04upside breakout is the most likely
38:07outcome
38:08and that oil will move to 200 dollars
38:11plus um subsequently
38:14but um
38:15for the time being all of that is on
38:17hold and uh you can't um
38:20take an oil trade until
38:22um
38:24well
38:25I won't say you can't take an oil trade
38:26I mean depending if you're using the TNS
38:29um and are trend following or whether
38:32you are
38:34um trading it um but the next trade SRS
38:38type trade
38:39would come on a breakout uh probably
38:41somewhere around about 117 118 dollars
38:44something like that
38:45um
38:48so we just have to let this play out, is
38:50is basically what I'm saying.
38:52Oil versus gold is um
38:56slowly tracking to the upside. We've got
38:57a break a bounce off the um
39:00sort of support area here. Of course, we
39:02had the false breakdown during COVID
39:04when oil went to
39:05um [snorts]
39:06negative
39:08values
39:09effectively. Um and the oil-to-gold
39:12ratio now is bouncing to the upside. Um
39:14so
39:15I think the target is probably going to
39:17be this this area here around about
39:190.037
39:21ish.
39:23The um chart for diesel is interesting
39:26because unlike the oil chart that has
39:28had confirmed monthly breakout and it's
39:30back testing at the moment. So the idea
39:32is that we get the back test
39:34um and continue to track upwards
39:37mirroring the sort of percentage moves
39:39that we've seen a number of times in the
39:40past actually. It wasn't just there
39:42where we saw that kind of move. Of
39:44course, we saw it down here as well
39:46uh and we saw that kind of move
39:48here as well from this low point up to
39:50here.
39:51So
39:52these sorts of percentage moves aren't
39:55uh unusual.
39:56Um.
39:58So having had the confirmed breakout um
40:01the expectation is for diesel
40:04to resume its upwards trend in the not
40:07too distant future. Uh the coal chart
40:10pulling back at the moment um
40:13interesting to see where that one closes
40:14out the month because at the moment it's
40:16defining that as a sort of a
40:18a test of the horizontal resistance and
40:21um a false breakout through that
40:23declining resistance line. So
40:25until we get a clear break above 158 as
40:27I've said previously, then um you can't
40:30be
40:31confidently uh bullish for the longer
40:33term.
40:34And the VanEck Oil Services ETF is
40:36coming back for a back test of that
40:38horizontal support. Um so we'll see if
40:41that holds on a monthly closing basis.
40:44And the XL
40:46E chart um is
40:49well it got to about two thirds of the
40:51way towards the target, and now we're
40:53having another one of these
40:55harsh back tests, a little bit like we
40:57or harsh corrections a little bit like
40:58we did back in uh March uh to May of
41:02this year, I think it was.
41:03So XLE is
41:05volatile, but it has been moving
41:06strongly to the upside, of course. XLE
41:09versus gold.
41:11Um,
41:12that's the XLE gold ratio,
41:16um, and
41:19well, as you can see, it's been chugging
41:20to the upside throughout 2026. Now we're
41:23getting a
41:24pullback um over the last month or so,
41:27or the last
41:28couple of weeks at least.
41:29And so again, it's a case of watch and
41:32wait and see if it can reverse and move
41:34up to resistance there.
41:37The XOP chart, uh also very clear
41:40breakout, back test, uh
41:42strong move to the upside after the back
41:44test,
41:45and now another um
41:47correction taking place at the moment as
41:49we speak.
41:51EQT Corporation, that's one of those
41:53natural gas plays, remains above the the
41:56three and four year moving average, or
41:57certainly above the four year. Just
41:59testing the three year moving average
42:00there at the moment.
42:02Um, and it's above the Ichimoku cloud.
42:04So as long as this back test, whatever
42:06this is that's going on at the moment,
42:08as long as it holds above approximately
42:1044, then then it'll be okay.
42:13The US dollar index is starting to show
42:16a little bit more strength here, and if
42:17we get above about 102
42:20102, 102.
42:222, 102.3, that sort of area,
42:25then that's going to look um more
42:28bullish,
42:29which would be a little bit of a
42:30headwind short term for precious metals,
42:33but um in the long term, of course, you
42:36can see the US dollar index over the
42:38last
42:3910 years plus, 15 years has gone up, and
42:42so has gold.
42:44So a rising US dollar index does not
42:46stop gold going up
42:48or silver, of course.
42:50Um, the euro dollar chart is back
42:52testing having broken out. Full back
42:55test pretty much of the breakout. And
42:58the Swiss Franc versus the US Dollar
42:59showing a little bit more strength here
43:01over the last week or so.
43:04And got the breakout, pullback and now
43:06it's just sort of bouncing upwards a
43:07little bit, but the Swiss Franc
43:09um is
43:10much much stronger than the US Dollar of
43:11course as we know it's been tracking
43:13upwards versus US Dollar for decades
43:16now. The British Pound versus US Dollar
43:19is forming some sort of little flag or
43:21pennant pattern following the breakout
43:23that took place back in um
43:27the early part of uh last year actually
43:29it was.
43:30The Aussie Dollar versus the US Dollar
43:33is consolidating after its breakout and
43:36the Canadian Dollar versus the US Dollar
43:38hasn't done anything bullish yet. It's
43:40not broken through uh resistance so that
43:42remains
43:44um weak versus the US Dollar. Japanese
43:46Yen
43:48versus the US Dollar remains weak and
43:50the Indian Rupee versus the US Dollar is
43:53also weak just showing a little bit of
43:56um strength here over the last couple of
43:58months but nothing that is changing the
44:01overall structure of the chart at the
44:02moment but if we have a move above
44:06the indicated level there then that
44:08would be
44:09very very bullish indeed.
44:10Uh so the Euro versus the British Pound
44:13has been dropping like a rock
44:16um which means the Pound has been
44:18outperforming the Euro but it's going to
44:19be interesting to see what happens when
44:20it hits the support level at around
44:22about 0.82.
44:26Uh the S&P 500 looking at stock markets
44:28now of course have had some
44:30interesting price action over the last
44:32um
44:34few days and I'd said that anything
44:36below around about 7 and a 1/2 thousand
44:39uh starts to raise some questions and we
44:42are now at 7,382
44:44as I'm recording this. I'm actually
44:45recording this just before the
44:47uh market closes on Friday. I should
44:49have said that at the start actually I'm
44:51not going to be around
44:52um on Saturday so I'm
44:54going to upload this um
44:56tonight.
44:58Um, so the market's not quite closed
45:01yet, but yeah, we're back below that
45:03green support line now, so it's starting
45:05to raise some serious questions
45:09around
45:10around the stock markets. So that will
45:12be watched very closely next week. The
45:15equal-weighted index um
45:17interesting
45:20um wick developing on that weekly candle
45:23there
45:24and on the monthly candle as well
45:25actually, so
45:27S&P volatility
45:29um well
45:31it actually spiked upwards quite a lot
45:33yesterday
45:34which was Thursday the 5th of November.
45:37It's just pulling back a little bit at
45:38the moment.
45:39Um
45:41nothing too dramatic at the moment, but
45:43just worth keeping an eye on that.
45:46Nvidia bouncing a little bit today um
45:49but
45:50let me just zoom in
45:54zoom in a little bit. Sorry for the
45:56cartoon animations, but
45:59it adds a little drama, doesn't it? Let
46:00me just get rid of that.
46:02Um
46:03yeah, so
46:04Nvidia built out a rising wedge pattern
46:07from which it's um
46:09broken down. Um
46:11could put this on the daily chart
46:13perhaps. Probably works better on the
46:14weekly, back to the weekly.
46:16Um and you can see that we're just about
46:17to emerge from the bottom of the weekly
46:19Chimoku cloud there. Um so that's not a
46:22good looking
46:23chart for Nvidia and
46:26depending how that develops next week
46:28it could
46:30could escalate um quite quickly. Now
46:33this is an interesting chart. It's
46:34Nasdaq versus the S&P
46:36and
46:38drawing your attention to this because
46:39in a capital rotation event
46:42um the Nasdaq underperforms the S&P
46:44typically. Um the
46:47huge tech companies tend to
46:50lead the decline if you like and you can
46:53see this huge decline took place during
46:55the last couple of rotation event
46:57And you would expect something similar
46:59on this occasion if we were to get a
47:01couple of rotation event and it's just
47:02starting to break down
47:04through rising support lines and if we
47:06get a breakdown through that red line at
47:08the bottom there
47:10um
47:11in the next week or two then we'd have
47:12some much more serious issues.
47:15Nasdaq 100
47:17on its own chart is
47:21just starting to show some signs
47:23actually breaking below um the uptrend
47:26support. Um the uptrend support's a
47:29little bit subjective where you put
47:30that.
47:31I've got it as a green line on there but
47:33um
47:33you get the idea that potentially we are
47:36starting to see a a bit more of a
47:38meaningful breakdown on the on the
47:39monthly time frame there.
47:41Dow Jones um [snorts]
47:43not convincing. It tried to break out
47:45and failed and we're back within the
47:47pattern here.
47:48So the Dow Jones again we would get some
47:51serious
47:53um problems if we start to break down
47:54below about 48,000 I think.
47:57Um the Russell
48:00down on the weekly time frame and you
48:01can see it's just
48:04very close to to breaking down below
48:06that rising support line there. So
48:08again not quite a convincing breakdown
48:11yet but something to watch very
48:13carefully. The Japanese Nikkei has
48:15broken
48:16uh below some
48:19again that looks like a topping pattern
48:20on there. Um that looks like a
48:23fairly convincing weekly defined
48:24breakdown on the monthly chart. Also
48:27that monthly candle doesn't look very
48:29clever does it? So
48:30um
48:32yeah not not great for the Nikkei to um
48:37to put it uh to put it mildly and the
48:39the UK FTSE keeps trying to break
48:41through this resistance level. I'll put
48:43the line chart on there.
48:45Got that resistance area which is around
48:47about 11,000 and it's failed to break
48:48through it again. Broke down below the
48:50rising red support line, back tested it
48:53to a T and now we're getting rejected
48:56from that. So again some early
49:00warning signs perhaps. The Hang Seng, we
49:02never really went bullish on that one
49:04because
49:05it failed to break out through the black
49:08and the red resistance lines. So if you
49:10scroll back through the
49:11market roundups over the last year or
49:13so, you'll know that we've not been able
49:14to be bullish on the Hang Seng. And the
49:17Straits Times Index,
49:19well that's starting to fall like a like
49:22a rock, isn't it? It's fallen from
49:24nearly 6,000 to just above 5,000 at the
49:26moment. So
49:2910 15 well 15% drop I suppose that is,
49:32something like that.
49:34And
49:36if we were to break below what is that
49:39roundabout 4,900
49:45call it
49:464,900 if we get down to 4,900 or lower
49:48then that starts to look
49:51pretty dangerous on the Straits [snorts]
49:53Times Index. That's the Singapore stock
49:55market by the way. And the KOSPI, the
49:57South Korean Index is almost back down
49:59at
50:01all the way down at the support level
50:02that I'd said was quite likely to be
50:04tested. That'd be a 55% drop.
50:07And somewhere roundabout
50:095 4,000
50:12what would it be 4,250 something like
50:14that.
50:16The SSE Composite Index, the Chinese
50:18stock market is also dropping.
50:21Hit the
50:23horizontal resistance level.
50:25And if you look at the Xtrackers Harvest
50:27CSI 300 China A-Series ETF
50:31we hit the target that we previously
50:33identified
50:35and we've been dropping ever since. So
50:37there's nothing
50:38nothing you can do with that and
50:41not really
50:43worth playing the Chinese stock market
50:44anyway because it's been perpetually
50:47pretty much perpetually underperforming
50:48gold. This is the Chinese stock market
50:51versus gold and that's just not not a
50:53good look.
50:54The ASX 200 Australia
50:58is actually just bouncing off that blue
51:01support So, um,
51:03whilst all the other,
51:05um,
51:06stock indices are looking awful, this
51:08one's getting some, um, getting some
51:10love here
51:12and is holding on to its support level.
51:15Nasdaq emerging markets, uh, again I'd
51:18said that until or unless we break out
51:21through that upper black line, then
51:24there's no, um, nothing to be bullish
51:25about. That red circle there is where we
51:27would need to break through to be
51:29bullish. We've We've hit the target.
51:32So, that was a profit taking area and we
51:34now would need to move through that
51:36black line there
51:37to be, um,
51:39to have a renewed bullish outlook.
51:42But, uh, the opposite is happening.
51:44Nifty 50, um, also getting some positive
51:48price action there, bouncing off the
51:51four year moving average and the
51:52Ichimoku cloud. So, that one's that
51:54one's holding on okay.
51:57It wouldn't be unless it fell If it
51:59falls below about 22,000,
52:01then we could have some more major
52:03concerns, but that's not not happened.
52:06The TSX Composite Index, um,
52:10well,
52:11that one's leveling off after meteoric
52:14rise. I would probably suggest that
52:16that's a little bit exhausted at the
52:17moment and at the very least is due,
52:20um, a little bit of a more meaningful
52:22correction.
52:23Um, the
52:25um,
52:27this ratio is European stocks versus US
52:30stocks.
52:31So, if we pass through these
52:34coloured areas, then you would move into
52:36European stocks, but at the moment
52:38that's not the case.
52:39And we've got Stocks Europe 50 versus
52:41the S&P here,
52:43which is still in the no area, um, which
52:45means,
52:47you know, US stocks are still favoured.
52:51Okay, crypto now and we're going to go
52:52onto the weekly time frame
52:54with the 50 week moving average.
52:57Um, just adjust that for you.
52:59Okay, so crypto total market cap, um,
53:02has been rejected at
53:05uh, resistance there. We were trying to
53:07push through a horizontal resistance
53:08level. We got rejected and we're pushing
53:11back down at the moment. So, for the
53:12time being, can't be
53:14um
53:15having a renewed
53:17it's not possible to have a renewed
53:18bullish outlook on crypto total market
53:20cap.
53:21And uh
53:22crypto total market cap excluding
53:24Bitcoin and Ethereum, it's the same
53:26story. Nothing different.
53:28Um Bitcoin also it's the same story. So,
53:30Bitcoin itself
53:32came up to test um important resistance.
53:34We got above the 50-week moving average,
53:36so we started to
53:37suggest that there were some um slightly
53:40increasing bullish signs, but we did say
53:42that we need to be above about 93,000 or
53:44so before we can
53:46have a um a significantly higher degree
53:48of confidence that we're entering
53:50a more meaningful
53:52bullish phase. That's not happened
53:54and in fact we've been rejected so far
53:56from that level.
53:58Uh so it's you know it's not possible to
54:00be longer-term bullish on Bitcoin at the
54:03moment.
54:04Uh same sort of thing for Ethereum and
54:06we've hit um
54:08a resistance level here and we've been
54:09rejected.
54:11Um
54:12Bitcoin dominance is going sideways
54:14still, so there's no alt season. Uh when
54:17Bitcoin dominance plunges, that's when
54:19you get the um
54:23that's when you get alt season. Uh it's
54:25it's when um
54:27the alt coins
54:29um kind of benefit, if you like, from
54:32the capital flows in the market.
54:34Bitcoin versus Nasdaq
54:37um
54:38well that's kind of holding holding its
54:40own at the moment, Bitcoin versus
54:42Nasdaq.
54:43And it it's been plunging of course,
54:46but at the moment Bitcoin Nasdaq
54:49um is
54:51uh is just hanging on to that horizontal
54:53support level.
54:55Total two versus Bitcoin, no no news
54:57there. It hasn't broken out, so the alt
54:59coins are not breaking out versus
55:00Bitcoin and Bitcoin versus gold
55:04it got rejected at that red resistance
55:07level which has been developing
55:09and there's only a couple of touch
55:11points on that but
55:12based on the evidence of the other
55:14charts it's I think it's reasonable to
55:16draw that as a resistance level
55:19so that if we
55:20come back to to test it at some point in
55:22the future then we'll know that that is
55:24likely to be a resistance
55:26horizontal or near horizontal resistance
55:28level
55:30but again
55:32it's just starting to drop a little bit
55:33at the moment so that means gold is just
55:36starting to show a little bit of
55:38relative strength versus bitcoin
55:40and bitcoin versus silver
55:43has been moving up quite strongly and
55:45outperforming silver
55:46but it's within a rising channel and a
55:49rising channel after a big drop like
55:51this
55:52is
55:54generally not a good thing because what
55:56usually happens is that you get
55:59you know what I'm going to do here don't
56:00you
56:02you usually get continuation breakdown
56:04so what we'd be looking for is if we do
56:06break below that lower red support line
56:09we'd be looking for a big
56:11fall for bitcoin versus silver
56:17and and of course if we break above the
56:19black dashed line then that scenario
56:21would be
56:22removed and you'd be looking for a
56:24retest of that upper red line there
56:25which would mean bitcoin outperforming
56:27silver so again we're
56:29in a situation where we're waiting for a
56:30clear signal
56:32total three versus bitcoin so again
56:34altcoins versus bitcoin
56:36and that [clears throat] hasn't broken
56:37out to the upside so there's no
56:39confirmed alt season because it hasn't
56:41broken out
56:46and
56:47just going to move on to others versus
56:49bitcoin
56:50so again
56:51another way of looking at altcoins
56:53versus bitcoin and again it hasn't
56:55broken out so there's no alt season at
56:57the moment so still waiting for a signal
57:00one way or the other
57:02now we've got crypto total market cap
57:04excluding bitcoin ethereum and stable
57:06coins and again it's a case of a
57:08breakdown
57:10testing overhead resistance and pulling
57:12back again. So, it just confirms that
57:14same story.
57:15Stable coins market cap
57:18uh is plunging actually at the moment.
57:20So,
57:21quite sure
57:23um what that might imply, but it's uh
57:25it's not it's not good look, is it?
57:27There's no support in here. This this
57:29rapid rise up here
57:32did so without any pause, without any
57:36price action to to
57:39to break the pattern. There's no there's
57:40no
57:41there's no support in there that I can
57:42see. So, um that is
57:45looking
57:47ominous, I would say. Um hot eight
57:50broke out
57:51uh and is now doing a full back test of
57:54the breakout. Um so,
57:57see if that
57:58holds or not, but uh at the moment it's
58:00in a
58:01steep decline. Um [snorts] hot eight
58:04versus Bitcoin is also in a steep
58:05decline having had a
58:08very strong upside run,
58:10breakout through this declining channel.
58:13Um but that run came to an end and uh
58:15now with
58:17retracing all the way back down by the
58:19looks of it to uh probably somewhere
58:20near where where the support is.
58:23Okay, Bank of America, that's quite a
58:25big drop there from
58:27uh what was it? 65 down to 49.
58:30And Bank of America versus gold
58:32is not looking good if I put it onto the
58:34monthly time frame.
58:37[clears throat]
58:38It's Bank of America versus gold. And
58:40you can see what happened before the
58:42financial crisis back in 2007.
58:45Um prior to that in 2005 and six the
58:47chart had broken down. So, Bank of
58:49America priced in gold broke down before
58:52the financial crisis.
58:54And um of course we've seen this rounded
58:56top pattern and Bank of America again
58:58broke down versus gold back in well
59:012023, 2024.
59:03And here we are in 2026 and the chart is
59:05still
59:06uh looking weak and trending downwards.
59:09And I would say if we break below that
59:10red support line,
59:12then that is likely to enter a more sort
59:14of dramatic downward plunge.
59:18So that's what the technical chart
59:19suggesting. The Baltic Dry Index and
59:21Baltic Dry shipping costs are
59:24holding excuse me holding up at these
59:28more elevated levels compared to where
59:30they were back in
59:32early 2025. We've sort of seen a
59:34roughly a tripling of the
59:37of the prices.
59:39The iShares 20 plus year Treasury Bond
59:41ETF doesn't look great does it? It's
59:44multi-decade support there which is
59:45broken and if I just
59:48bring the chart up a little bit like
59:49that you can see what's been going on.
59:51We had this parabolic rise
59:53then a plunge and we've broken down
59:55below the multi-decade support.
59:58Look like a bit of a back test going on
1:00:00there.
1:00:01Put the candle chart on, the line chart
1:00:05trying to back test the broken support
1:00:08but structurally that is
1:00:12not good.
1:00:13As long as we're below those two red
1:00:15lines that looks pretty pretty poor
1:00:19bearish.
1:00:20The VanEck High Yield ETF is also weak
1:00:24and broken down
1:00:26below that sort of support area.
1:00:29Um
1:00:31tricky sort of
1:00:32technical chart pattern to analyse that
1:00:33but it's not to my mind at least not
1:00:36not very bullish.
1:00:38The civilian unemployment
1:00:40chart is
1:00:43has been slowly tracking to the upside
1:00:45and then
1:00:46more recently just going sideways so we
1:00:48can keep an eye on that because when it
1:00:50moves upwards strongly
1:00:52I haven't got the recession indicator on
1:00:53here at the moment but when it moves
1:00:54upwards strongly it ties in with with
1:00:57recessions.
1:00:58The
1:00:59excuse me the 10 year yield
1:01:01or
1:01:03the US government bonds 10 year yield
1:01:05this pattern here broke to the upside.
1:01:08Does a little bit of a pullback here at
1:01:09the moment but what I would say about it
1:01:11is that we've had a 40 year downtrend
1:01:13for the 10 year yield. You can it here.
1:01:1640 years going down. We had a false
1:01:18breakdown and an upside breakout,
1:01:21which suggests very much like the late
1:01:231960s over here when it happened.
1:01:26Um
1:01:28we've got the
1:01:29the breakout here,
1:01:31sideways consolidation and then up it
1:01:33went.
1:01:34And we've got the same thing here,
1:01:35breakout, sideways consolidation.
1:01:38Um a move above 5.3%
1:01:40would, to my mind, open up a pathway to
1:01:44somewhere between 7 and 8%
1:01:47the two-year
1:01:48market implied 10-year yield.
1:01:51Um that one's also
1:01:54um broken out to the upside. The 10
1:01:56minus the two,
1:01:58which is sometimes known as the yield
1:01:59curve inversion.
1:02:02Tell you what, I will I'll put the
1:02:03recession indicator on here.
1:02:06Um
1:02:08this is the yield curve. Hang on a
1:02:10second. I've just got to get rid of
1:02:13that table.
1:02:15I can.
1:02:17Um
1:02:21get rid of that.
1:02:23Uh
1:02:28sometimes it works, sometimes it
1:02:29doesn't. Hang on a second.
1:02:34Should be
1:02:37something on there that allows me to
1:02:39remove the table and it's not showing at
1:02:40the moment.
1:02:42Oh, there it is.
1:02:44My fault.
1:02:45Right.
1:02:46Um
1:02:47so
1:02:49the 10-year yield minus the two-year
1:02:51yield or the yield curve inversion, when
1:02:53it interacts with the zero line there,
1:02:55having fallen below it and then starts
1:02:57to rise,
1:02:58tend to get some sort of
1:03:01crisis,
1:03:02recession,
1:03:03dot com bust recession, GFC
1:03:06recession.
1:03:07Over here we've got repo liquidity,
1:03:10COVID small recession.
1:03:12Um so curious that
1:03:15we We
1:03:17seen a an official recession, but we've
1:03:19certainly got plenty going on that
1:03:22fits the crisis um criteria.
1:03:26Multiple wars, geopolitical and economic
1:03:28shocks,
1:03:30all that kind of stuff.
1:03:31Um and
1:03:34I think that's about it for this market
1:03:36roundup podcast. There's keeping an eye
1:03:38on some of these ratio charts. For
1:03:40example, things like GDX versus
1:03:43um
1:03:44USO and oil um because we saw a
1:03:47breakdown there for the miners versus
1:03:50oil.
1:03:51Um
1:03:52we've got
1:03:54and just put this on the weekly time
1:03:55frame as well.
1:03:57Um
1:04:00Yeah, so we
1:04:02you know, we saw the upwards breakout
1:04:04for miners versus oil and then the
1:04:06rotation away from
1:04:08precious metals miners towards energy
1:04:10and oil. And this kind of volatile
1:04:13pattern that's built out here has been a
1:04:14bit of a breakdown and we're going to
1:04:16have to see how the month closes out,
1:04:18but uh
1:04:21clearly there's been an upwards tick for
1:04:23the precious metals miners versus energy
1:04:26and oil.
1:04:27Um but so that warrants keeping a close
1:04:30eye on
1:04:31um
1:04:32very clear sort of breakdown and
1:04:35kind of a back test going on at the
1:04:36moment, so we want to see how that
1:04:37resolves. So we'll keep on top of that
1:04:40over the next few days and weeks as well
1:04:42into next week.
1:04:43Okay, um that's it for this market
1:04:45roundup podcast. Um hope you got some
1:04:47value out of all of that and we'll be
1:04:50back with more again in a week's time,
1:04:52but uh
1:04:53for now, goodbye. Have a great weekend.
1:04:56>> [music]
1:05:01[music]

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