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Market Predictions - Next 6 Months (Buyouts? Burnout? Corrections?) One Piece TCG — Transcript

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0:00Hello and welcome to One Piece of
0:01Insight. In today's video, I will be
0:04attempting to make sense of what is
0:05likely to happen over the next 6 months.
0:08So, for those who don't know, we have a
0:09slew of product releases coming out over
0:12the next 6 months in the One Piece TCG.
0:14Prices are already crazy. Are they going
0:16to go crazier? Are they going to fall
0:17down? Are we going to have a correction
0:19at some point? I don't inherently know
0:21the answers to these questions, but I
0:22thought it might be helpful to take a
0:23structured look at the next 6 months to
0:26see what we could figure out and see
0:27what questions we still have. So, with
0:29that as always, this is intended to be
0:31interesting and informative, but not
0:32financial advice. So, naturally, your
0:34first question is probably like if you
0:35don't have a crystal ball, why are we
0:37trying to predict what's going to happen
0:38over the next 6 months? I try to use
0:39this information to do strategic
0:41planning, to think about how I may want
0:43to prioritize resources, when I may want
0:45to purchase things, what things I want
0:46to purchase. I use it to identify buy
0:48and sell opportunities. I use it as a
0:50framework to evaluate events and also to
0:53learn when I end up being wrong, the
0:56reason why I was wrong, the direction in
0:57which I'm wrong. I want to tell a quick
0:59story from like a couple weeks ago. So,
1:01some of you may know, I made a video
1:03where I predicted what the prices were
1:04going to be for OP15 and I said that I
1:07thought that the Robin was going to be
1:09about $1,500 on release and then I
1:11thought that it was eventually going to
1:12fall down to a low of around $800 and
1:14settle somewhere in like the $1,000
1:16range. So, OP16 comes out and what is
1:18Robin at release? $650.
1:21So, obviously, that's wildly wrong from
1:24what I said was $1,500. But, my $1,500
1:27price was a mix of like what I thought
1:28comps were and also what I thought hype
1:31was going to be. So, now I have these
1:33two different heuristics. One is that
1:36this should probably be like at least an
1:38$800 SP, maybe $1,000, maybe even more.
1:42And then the other is never buy on
1:44release because prices always fall after
1:45release. And now in my mind, I have to
1:48square these two things. Had I not done
1:49the prediction, the only heuristic I
1:51would have had was never buy on release.
1:53And I would have said, "Well, if it's
1:55$650, it's going to continue to fall and
1:58fall and fall for the next few months
1:59and then I'll finally buy it, right?
2:01But, because I had done the analysis to
2:03say I think this should be an $800 card,
2:05when it hit $540,
2:07I decided to make the decision to buy
2:09because I felt that one of those
2:12heuristics had to be wrong and I thought
2:14it was more likely that the heuristic of
2:17don't buy when something was newly
2:19released was wrong rather than the comps
2:22being wrong about what that card is
2:23eventually going to be worth. So, I
2:24bought mine at $540 and now the card is
2:27up to 750, 800, 850 depending on, you
2:30know, when this releases. So, all of
2:32this is to say that like, no, my
2:34prediction wasn't right,
2:35>> [laughter]
2:36>> right? I thought there was going to be
2:37way more hype and it clearly went in the
2:39opposite direction. But, the reason that
2:41prediction was valuable was because it
2:43gave me the information I needed to say
2:44something's off here, something's
2:46different from what I originally
2:48expected. Why is it different and what
2:50decision should I make based on it being
2:52different? And so, based on that, I
2:54decided to buy at a much cheaper price.
2:56Had I waited, I would have had to pay a
2:58lot more. I also want to take this
3:00moment to go quickly on a rant. Uh as
3:03many of you who have purchased off
3:05TCGPlayer or eBay or other stores know,
3:08sometimes when you make a right decision
3:10and you buy things when something is low
3:12and then it goes up in price, you may
3:13magically find that your order was
3:15refunded, they lost the card, it was
3:17lost in the mail, whatever reason,
3:19right?
3:20I will be honest, I was prepared to be
3:22frustrated about this. I was coming up
3:23with arguments in my head of what I was
3:25going to say when they didn't send my
3:26card and then it came in the mail, both
3:28of them. The Robin that I paid $540 for
3:31and the Ace that I paid $214 for. And I
3:34was shocked and floored and deeply
3:35appreciative. So, rather than coming on
3:38here and saying negative things about
3:40vendors who don't send theirs, I wanted
3:42to give props to two vendors who really
3:44stood behind their word. They sold a
3:46card, you know, it went up in price and
3:47they sent it anyway because that was the
3:48deal they made. And like, in a world
3:50where it's become so incredibly
3:52difficult to trust people and in my view
3:55is sort of like poisoning the hobby, I
3:56just can't describe how much I
3:57appreciate that. So, mad props to Over
4:00the Top Games LLC as well as the lounge.
4:03I don't know anything about them except
4:04that I've made this one transaction, but
4:06like I would definitely buy from them in
4:08the future because they were good to
4:09their word and that means a ton. And all
4:12of this has had me thinking more about
4:13like, you know, we spend a lot of money
4:16on this hobby. We get to decide what we
4:18spend the money on and we get to choose
4:20to vote with our dollars. And I
4:22personally am just tired of spending
4:24money in directions where I just don't
4:28like their ethics. I was at GameStop
4:30today because
4:31uh we were stopped at a mall for some
4:33other reason and I really wanted a first
4:35partner collection, you know, the new um
4:37Pokémon set that came out and they had
4:39one for 60 bucks. And I was like, well,
4:41I you know, I still have my GameStop Pro
4:42account, so I have a $5 coupon and I
4:44have probably some credit for that. So,
4:46you know, that'll get it down to like 50
4:47bucks. So, I'll just buy it here even
4:49though it's overpriced.
4:50And the response that I got was, "Oh,
4:52well, if you want to use any of those
4:54coupons, you need to download our app
4:56and you need to do all these things."
4:57And like structures deliberately put in
4:59place so that people can't actually use
5:01the benefit they paid for and I was just
5:03done. Like, if you are going to so badly
5:06abuse the community and take advantage
5:08of us that like, you know, we paid for
5:10your pro membership and now we don't get
5:11to use it, like I'm done with you. I can
5:14spend my money at local game stores who
5:17build community, who are focused on
5:18players, who are doing great things
5:21rather than spending my money on sort of
5:22like these corporate overlords who don't
5:25care at all about the hobby, don't care
5:27at all about us, and want to squeeze us
5:28for every penny that we're worth.
5:30And honestly, I'm not going to judge
5:32anybody who makes any decision that they
5:34decide to make, right? If you want to
5:35buy from GameStop because it's
5:36convenient, that's fine. If you want to
5:38send your cards into PSA because they're
5:39worth more money and they're easier to
5:41flip, that's fine. But like these
5:43companies that are squeezing us for
5:44everything that we're worth and not
5:45giving back, I'm done with them. They're
5:47not getting any more of my money. And so
5:49that's all I wanted to say on that. So,
5:51apologies for the rant, but I, you know,
5:53I've I've gotten the sense from people
5:54in the comments that I'm not the only
5:55one who's feeling that way, so I just
5:57wanted to share. Okay, moving on to the
5:59actual content. Okay, so let's quickly
6:01talk through the product release
6:02schedule. So, you know, we just had OP16
6:05come out. It was not exactly like the
6:06biggest hit. It sounds like a lot of
6:08people are waiting for a second release
6:10to come. Obviously, the big elephant in
6:12the room is the OP17 release in August.
6:15Now, part of the challenge in figuring
6:17out what's going to happen over the next
6:186 months is because the anniversary sets
6:21usually released around the holidays, um
6:24it was much easier to be able to say
6:26like, well, historically One Piece has
6:29had a bull run during the holidays. Now
6:31that they've changed the release and
6:32they bumped it back a little bit, it's a
6:33little bit harder for me to know how
6:35much historical comps are going to be
6:36relevant here, but stick with me.
6:39Not only though do we have OP17, which
6:41is going to be an absolutely massive
6:42release, after that we then have, and
6:45they just announced this,
6:46EB05, which is going to be another
6:49Heroines Collection coming right on the
6:51heels of OP17. I cannot for the life of
6:53me understand why Bandai would do this,
6:56why they would take a moment where
6:57there's already tremendous hype and
6:58probably insufficient supply, and then
7:00they would release another set that is
7:02going to be incredibly hyped and
7:04insufficient supply
7:06all at the same time that they are also
7:08planning to release another card game in
7:102027. But, we're going to have to live
7:11with it because it's what's happening.
7:13And then, after that, we have a month
7:16later the OP18 release, right? We don't
7:19have any information yet about OP18, so
7:21I don't know if it's going to be a great
7:22set or if it's going to be a lackluster
7:23set, but all of that is to say there is
7:25a lot that is going to happen over the
7:26next 6 months, and that makes it
7:28particularly difficult to tell how long
7:30this bull run is going to last and when
7:33it is eventually going to end. So, to
7:34frame the conversation, I wanted to
7:36revisit something that we talked about
7:37in a previous video, which is to
7:38understand how different types of
7:40markets
7:42result in price changes across different
7:44categories within those markets. So,
7:45right now I think we're in a hot market
7:47and we will see everything go up when
7:49we're in a hot market. In particular
7:51though, the things that tend to go up
7:52the most are grails, mid to low tier
7:55cards, and I would also put slabs in
7:57that category as well. Now, what I'm
7:59about to show you is sort of like my
8:01rationalization of how I think these
8:03bull markets tend to go, but it's not
8:05scientific and obviously you could poke
8:079 trillion holes in it which I will do
8:10as well. So, I wanted to characterize
8:13what I see as sort of like the typical
8:15bull market run. It often starts with,
8:18you know, a few very wealthy collectors
8:20buying up really high priced grails and
8:22pushing the prices of those higher. That
8:24then sends a signal to the community to
8:25be like, "Hey, we're back. You know,
8:27cards are pumping." And so people then
8:29start to buy slabs, which is sort of the
8:31next level
8:32of interest that people spend a lot of
8:34money on. It's like the second most
8:35expensive thing people can buy. When you
8:37see slabs start doing well, then people
8:38want to get the chase cards. They want
8:39to grade them. They want to sell those
8:41slabs, right?
8:42Then this eventually trickles down to
8:44sealed because once the big valuable
8:46cards in the boxes go up in value, then
8:49the sealed inevitably is going to go up
8:50in value as well. And then finally, the
8:52last thing that we tend to see during a
8:53hot market is we see like mid and low
8:56tier cards start to pop off on a rolling
8:59basis. Essentially, the logic of all of
9:00this is, "Well, X category of card has
9:03gotten really really expensive lately.
9:04So, what's like X category of card,
9:07right?" I think a great example of this
9:09is like the 25th anniversary set, the
9:11premium Bandai one, the folder got
9:14really expensive and then people went
9:15looking around and were like, "What
9:17other sets are like that that should be
9:18expensive?" So, then you see the One
9:20Piece Film Red triple in price. You
9:21start to see some of the best
9:22collections and the Bandai Card Fest
9:25collections double and triple in price.
9:27And so, people having missed sort of a
9:30buyout of one set of card, then look and
9:32say, "Well, what's my next closest
9:33option? I want to buy it before that
9:35goes up in price as well." And so, that,
9:37I think, is where we are in the market
9:39right now. We are seeing these pockets
9:41of buyouts
9:43based on FOMO and people using the logic
9:46that if, you know, X card is this
9:47expensive, then Y card, which is pretty
9:49similar, should also be that expensive,
9:50right?
9:51I do that. That's what a lot of,
9:53frankly, my analysis is, is trying to
9:56look at one card and say, "Hey, you
9:58know, if this is this price and this
9:59population, and this card is very
10:01similar in a lower population, shouldn't
10:03that be at least the same price?" Right?
10:05So this is how we go through this like
10:06migration. Once we get through that hot
10:09market, then we move into like a
10:11consolidation, right? Which is where
10:12prices don't really go up, they don't
10:14really go down. We start to find like
10:16some level of normalcy. And then
10:18typically after that, when buying slows,
10:20if some people need to dump product,
10:22that's what then kicks off a correction.
10:24I've said this many, many times before.
10:25Corrections are an important and natural
10:27part of any market process. We shouldn't
10:29fear them. We should embrace them. If a
10:31market never corrects, it's a bubble and
10:33it's going to explode, right? So I think
10:35the fact that we saw a correction after
10:38the last bull run,
10:40uh and then we saw essentially another
10:42bull run happen after that, I think is
10:43like a good sign for the longevity and
10:45the stability of it. But that also does
10:47mean that there are going to be more
10:48corrections in the future, and we need
10:50to be prepared for those things. Okay,
10:51so here are my predictions. So the
10:53first, we have pre-OP17 hype. So for
10:55June and July, I think we're going to
10:57continue to see the rolling buyouts that
10:59we've seen targeting sealed, uh as well
11:01as mid-to-low tier cards as we sort of
11:03work our way through that cycle uh of a
11:06bull run. I also think, though, that
11:08we're going to start seeing some profit
11:10taking uh as people prepare for OP17.
11:13Like OP17 is the next big thing on the
11:15horizon. It's going to be expensive.
11:17People are going to want to dump a lot
11:18of money in it. People are going to
11:20prepare to buy out these big chase cards
11:22and try to get good deals, you know, as
11:23soon as they launch. So some people are
11:25going to be taking profits just so they
11:27can load up to be able to spend on 17.
11:29Inevitably, that's going to push some
11:30things down. I don't know exactly what
11:32it's going to be. I think, you know,
11:34most likely it will affect slabs,
11:36promo cards, things that have run up a
11:38ton
11:39in recent times. So, then we have the
11:41OP17 release in August and September.
11:44So, you know, the big things here is
11:45obviously OP17 is going to be renewed
11:48hype. We're going to see continue profit
11:50taking of some of the things that had
11:51been previously expensive. And I also
11:53think that we're going to see some
11:54people start to exit out of some
11:56specific products that may be sort of
11:59like overcome by better cards in OP17.
12:02Now, not knowing what's going to be in
12:03OP17, it's really, really hard to
12:05predict this. But right now, some of the
12:07most expensive cards in One Piece are
12:09because there is nothing that sort of
12:11trumps them. If we get cards that trump
12:13them in OP17, that could hurt their
12:14value. And so, if there's a sense that
12:18those are going to hurt their value,
12:20people might hedge and take profits just
12:23as a way to sort of mitigate their risk.
12:25And so, I do think some of that will be
12:27happening, but I do think that we'll
12:29continue to see growth. And I think the
12:30biggest thing here is that OP17 is going
12:32to drive more interest to the hobby. I
12:35think it's going to drive more
12:36collectors into the hobby. It's going to
12:38drive more media attention, which is
12:40going to drive even bigger money into
12:42the hobby in some sense. Some of those
12:44people are going to be really, really
12:45short-lived, but I do think some of that
12:47is actually going to be sustained
12:48growth, particularly on the player base
12:49side. So, for that reason, I do think
12:51this is going to be a good and a
12:52positive period for the game, but I do
12:54also think that it's going to be
12:55expensive. And I do think there are
12:56going to be some pockets that are going
12:57to get hit a little bit as people try to
13:00be able to buy into OP17. And then we
13:02have the EBO5 release. And I will be
13:04honest, I had written this slide one
13:06way, and then I saw about the EBO5
13:08release, and I had to completely redo
13:10the entire presentation because
13:11[laughter] it threw every assumption
13:13that I had about what was going to
13:15happen after OP17 out the window.
13:17So, what I thought was going to happen
13:19at first was we were going to see hypes
13:21for OP17 slowly start to dive down, you
13:24know, as we got reprints, as we saw how
13:26big the supply was, prices would fall a
13:28little bit, you you know, people would
13:30still, you know, get invested in it as a
13:32long-term hold, but particularly like
13:34singles prices, I think would come down
13:35a lot as we see more and more supply of
13:38that. Uh and I thought that this had the
13:40potential to be sort of like the end of
13:42the bull market, right? The people had
13:43sort of been saving up their hype for
13:45this, and then they had the release, and
13:47then they, you know, lost attention,
13:49moved on to something else, decided to
13:51take profits, whatever it may be. EBO5
13:53really throws a wrench in that
13:54assumption. And it's a little bit hard
13:56to tell which direction it's going to go
13:58because
13:59let's talk about EBO3, cuz this is the
14:01natural comp to try to understand what's
14:03going to happen for EBO5. You know,
14:04coming off the heels of OP13, EBO3 was
14:08so hot, you know, we had pre-order
14:10prices hitting $700, we had Rudy from
14:13Alpha Investments talking about how like
14:14this was the best One Piece set ever,
14:16you know, and that $700 didn't seem all
14:18that unreasonable given that it had all
14:20the heroines in it.
14:22And then ultimately,
14:24you know, the cards inside are pretty
14:25expensive,
14:26um but the boxes themselves are now at
14:29around all-time lows of less than $300.
14:32It's still a reasonably expensive set,
14:33but like
14:34it's like less than $50 more expensive
14:36than some of the lower-tier One Piece
14:38sets.
14:39And so, I think ultimately like the hype
14:41ended up being a lot more hype than sort
14:44of actual demand.
14:45What I think is going to be interesting
14:46about EBO5 is, number one, do we have
14:48the exact same hype again because we
14:50don't really learn our lesson from the
14:51first one,
14:52or do we see that EBO3 had this
14:55tremendous hype and then fell all the
14:57way down and people say, "You know what?
14:59I don't need to participate in that hype
15:00because I know it's eventually going to
15:01fall to like, you know, $275, $300, and
15:04I'll be able to get it much cheaper."
15:06The real question here though that we
15:08don't know, and the thing that I think
15:09is the biggest wild card, is do we get a
15:12Robin manga? Because I think we're going
15:14to get a Robin manga. I think the fact
15:17that they're doing this set is probably
15:18the reason we haven't gotten a Robin
15:20manga yet.
15:21And if we do,
15:23uh
15:24I think the hype is going to be real. I
15:25think that card is going to be very
15:26expensive and I could potentially see
15:28this being more valuable
15:30than EBO3 just because the Uta manga is
15:33kind of mid. Right? That's all super
15:34speculative. We don't know what's going
15:36to happen here. But I think the most
15:38likely thing is that you have sort of
15:40like the savvy buyers who are focusing
15:43on buying the dip on OP17 after the hype
15:46dies down. But then you also have sort
15:48of like the people who are newer into
15:50the hobby being really hyped about EBO5.
15:53I think the Robin manga could genuinely
15:54push prices higher, but at the same
15:57time, I thought that the OP16 Robin SP
16:00was going to be more popular because
16:01there's a lot of hype for Robin and then
16:03it wasn't. So, you know, maybe we end up
16:05seeing a Robin
16:07manga being less than we expected. It's
16:09really, really hard to say. So,
16:11all of that is to say that I think that
16:13instead of there being like a clear dip
16:15across all of the different categories,
16:17I think this will be more targeted. I
16:18think that OP17 particularly singles
16:20will go down uh during this period. I
16:23also think though that hype will
16:24continue into EBO5. People will be
16:26excited about the set, especially if
16:28there's a banger Robin manga in the set
16:31that may allow hype to continue to grow.
16:33Uh and then after that, I think we will
16:35see some consolidation. I think people
16:37will say, "Okay,
16:38>> [laughter]
16:38>> I've spent a lot of money. We've seen a
16:40lot of amazing things. The next few sets
16:42are probably just going to be pretty
16:44regular. Now may be a time to take some
16:45profits, take a little bit of a break."
16:48I don't think there's going to be a
16:48crash, right? Cuz I think the people who
16:50are coming in to the hobby for the first
16:52time are going to be buying some of
16:53these things. And I also think you're
16:55going to see people who are prepared to
16:57buy the dip expecting that there will be
16:58a dip. And that's why I think it's going
17:00to be consolidation rather than a
17:01correction during this period. And then
17:03we have what's probably the biggest wild
17:05card and that is the holiday season
17:07{slash} OP18. Now, as I've said
17:10previously, the holiday season has
17:11always been really, really good for One
17:13Piece. We've seen like big booms in
17:15prices. Now, that typically has been the
17:17result of having like really popular
17:19sets released before the holidays. You
17:21know, we had the anniversary sets. We
17:23also had PRB01 that was released really
17:25close to the holiday. I know that was my
17:27number one gift request on my Christmas
17:29list.
17:31And so, like it's really hard to know
17:32because on the one hand, you know, gift
17:35giving could be a boon to the hobby. But
17:37also, people tend to have less free cash
17:39during the holidays because they have to
17:40spend it on travel plans, buying people
17:42gifts, all that sort of stuff. So, that
17:44could be a reason why prices might go
17:46down. I think the biggest thing though
17:48here is that after we have the boom of
17:51OP-17 and EBO-5, I think people will be
17:54really confident that this is the end
17:56for a period of time, right? And so,
17:59there will no longer be a great argument
18:01unless OP-18 ends up being some crazy
18:04set that everyone is absolutely stoked
18:07for. Like, this will be like the clear
18:09consensus that it's time to take a break
18:11and it's time to look and see where the
18:13prices have fallen to, uh take some
18:15profits, cool down. And this is where I
18:17expect we'll start to see a correction
18:19at some point. Is it going to be during
18:21the holiday season? Is it going to be
18:23after the holiday season? I don't really
18:25know, but I think that like the
18:27excitement of OP-17 and EBO-5 will be a
18:31buoy for all prices in the market for a
18:33while, but I think once that ends, I
18:35think we could see prices start to
18:36correct pretty rapidly. Now,
18:39there's a lot of reasons why this might
18:41not be the case, right? We might see a
18:43correction earlier than this, right?
18:45Because people don't want to be the last
18:46person holding the bag. So, if the
18:48general conventional wisdom is that
18:50after EBO-5, prices are going to fall,
18:52when do you want to sell your card?
18:54Well, you probably don't want to wait
18:55until EBO-5 is done. You probably want
18:57to sell before then so that you,
19:00uh you know, don't try to sell at the
19:01same time everybody else is selling,
19:03right? And so, that can have the effect
19:05of sort of pushing these things to the
19:07left. Um and so, it's really hard to
19:09tell where or like this might start. Um
19:12I also do want to add two here that
19:13like, you know, this chopper is probably
19:16going to do really well early in the
19:18holiday season because the holiday
19:19season's going to remind it of the Santa
19:21Chopper. I'm sure someone's going to try
19:23to pump it and test sort of what its
19:24upward potential is. Like, don't play
19:26into that, right? The time to buy this
19:28chopper is like after the holidays when
19:30people think about it less rather than
19:32before the holidays. I would say the
19:33same thing with the gift collection that
19:35has a holiday association as well. I
19:37expect someone will try to pump that and
19:39that that will be more popular during
19:40the holiday season. Again, I suggest
19:42that you don't buy into that. You know,
19:44I think too that like in anticipation of
19:46people taking profits and corrections,
19:49if you have one of these cards that is
19:51pumped up like a ton of money, looking
19:53at you Treasure Rare Luffy particularly
19:55in a PSA 10, like trying to get out of
19:57that before these inevitable corrections
20:01come, I think it's probably a pretty
20:02good idea. I think that's pretty clearly
20:04overhyped. And then the reason that I
20:06have this Luffy Gear 5 in the slide is
20:08because I think that like there are
20:10going to be some questions posed about
20:12the existing slate of grails as we get
20:15new cards. The anniversary sets in
20:16particular I think are the biggest
20:18threats to these grails because
20:20based on what we've seen, they keep
20:21trying to up the ante. And if they
20:23successfully up the ante, that could
20:26just make this card more expensive than
20:28whatever we've previously had or it
20:30could lower the prices of the cards that
20:32we've previously had as someone says,
20:34"Well, I don't need this gold Roger. I
20:37want to take that money and I want to
20:39put it towards this
20:40platinum Bluefy." Whatever, right? So, I
20:44think there's some risk there and I
20:46think depending on what we see from the
20:47cards, I could see these correcting, you
20:49know, a little bit earlier as people
20:51take profits to try to get some of these
20:53new grails if they prefer them to the
20:55older ones. So, here's the big takeaway
20:57from all of this, right? I haven't even
20:59talked about Pokémon yet, but
21:01there [laughter] are going to be a crazy
21:02amount of demands on our money
21:05uh over the next 6 months. And frankly,
21:07something has to give, right? You know,
21:09we've already had a lot of hype, prices
21:10have gone up a ton. I don't know about
21:12you, but I've spent a lot more on cards
21:13than I normally do. Then we have EBO5,
21:16which is either going to be moderately
21:18expensive or extremely expensive, right?
21:20Then a month later we have OP 18, which
21:22like if you're a player of the game,
21:24even if it's not a huge set, there's
21:26probably going to be some power creep
21:27and you're probably still going to need
21:28it, right? And then all of this is
21:30happening at the same time that we have
21:31the Pokémon 30th anniversary set, and
21:34Pokémon is like the hottest it's ever
21:36been. You know, for those of us who are
21:38involved in many things, like that is a
21:39tremendous amount of demand on our
21:41money. And then also, yeah, the holiday
21:43season and all the associated costs with
21:45that. So like something has to give
21:47here. Either more money needs to come
21:49into the hobby, which it could, hype
21:50brings more money in. We've seen a lot
21:52of institutional money come in and that
21:54could continue to happen.
21:56Or,
21:57you know, people are going to need to
21:58take profits on things to free up
22:00capital to buy other things, which is
22:02why I think that we probably will see a
22:04rolling set of sort of like increases in
22:06prices as we see spikes and then sort of
22:08rapid decreases as people are trying to
22:10take profits. I do think that not being
22:12able to grade PSA value is probably
22:14going to free up some cash for folks to
22:17be able to spend on some of these
22:18things. So, I think that is one reason
22:20to think that maybe prices don't fall as
22:22quickly as they might have otherwise,
22:23but I do think that this is a concern
22:25that sort of needs an answer one way or
22:27the other. And I think it's going to
22:28have a significant impact on where the
22:29market goes over the next 6 months. So,
22:31just to quickly review, in case we do
22:33end up hitting a cold market at the end
22:35of the winter, uh, the actual cold meets
22:37the cold of the market, um, you know, I
22:40think the biggest losers are going to be
22:41slabs, right? You know, the things that
22:43have been bid up by a lot of sort of
22:44interest of people coming in from other
22:46things are going to be the first thing
22:47to lose value as people try to feel free
22:49up cash. Grails also tend not to do well
22:51in cold markets because they tend to
22:53have been bid up a lot during really,
22:55really hot markets. So, you naturally
22:57see a pretty big correction there. You
22:58know, mid to low tier cards, as we've
23:00gotten into those like second, third,
23:02fourth, fifth, sixth, fiftieth tier of
23:05card that people have started to buy up
23:07thinking, "Well, this is kind of like
23:08this version of this card." Right? Those
23:10are the ones that tend to lose a lot of
23:12value because they weren't necessarily
23:14carried by a lot of demand, right? They
23:16were carried by like speculator logic.
23:17And so, those lose a lot of value both
23:19in a stable market, but then really tend
23:21to lose a ton of value in the cold
23:22markets. I think the biggest winners in
23:26a cold market, not that there's any real
23:27winner, you know, sealed tends to be the
23:29most stable. It tends to lose the least
23:31prices. In some cases, it may even still
23:33go up depending on the product. You
23:35know, and then chase cards as well. And
23:36part of the reason is because chase
23:37cards I think lose value a little bit
23:39faster during a stable market, whereas
23:41some other things are still growing. You
23:43know, the logic here is that chase cards
23:45have a large enough population
23:48that there's not like continued demand
23:51to push the prices higher during a
23:53stable market.
23:54But, they also have a small enough
23:55population that they likely won't
23:58continue to fall because a lot of these
23:59things are like permanently in people's
24:01collections, and they tend to be less
24:03volatile than some of the either higher
24:05price cards or the lower price cards.
24:07So, I guess the real question is, what
24:09are my takeaways from this and like how
24:11am I going to prepare moving forward
24:14based on having gone through this
24:15thought experiment? Well, the first
24:16thing is I need to identify priorities
24:18and risk tolerances. Like I'm not going
24:20to be able to
24:22afford everything that's going to come
24:23out.
24:24And I need to be looking at my
24:25collection strategically and saying, you
24:27know,
24:28does it make sense for me to keep this
24:30card? Do I love it at the price that it
24:32currently is now? If I think that it has
24:35upward potential, maybe I want to keep
24:37it anyway like while a market is hot,
24:39but if I could better utilize that
24:42resources for something that I do
24:43actually love with all of this cool
24:45stuff coming out, maybe it is time to
24:46sell that, right? And so, that's the
24:48first thing that I need to do is take
24:50stock, figure out what my priorities
24:52are, and you know, what I'm willing to
24:54risk. Part of that means also taking
24:57profits where profits are useful to
24:59take, right? Whether it's to buy
25:00something else or to just take advantage
25:02of the big boom that we've all had over
25:04the last year. I think if you've been in
25:06this for a long time, even if you love
25:08it, like it's still really healthy to
25:10take some of those profits because, you
25:12know, these things could change, right?
25:14And I know that I'm paying more for
25:16cards now than I would have paid a year
25:18ago.
25:19And so ultimately taking some of those
25:20profits on things that have gone up is a
25:22hedge against what I'm spending now on
25:25other cards. You know, I would also say
25:26to you, I'm going to start saving money
25:27for OP17. I think it's going to be
25:29pretty big
25:31and it's going to be expensive. I also
25:32think that there will be a dip when OP17
25:34comes out, like, you know, whether it's
25:362 months, 3 months, however long in the
25:37future. Like, I want to be prepared to
25:39buy that dip if I wasn't able to get
25:41very much at a reasonable price when it
25:43first came out. I definitely don't want
25:45to overpay for EBO5. You know, again, it
25:48will be really interesting to see what's
25:49in that set
25:51and how much people are willing to pay
25:53for it. I'm worried about a Robin manga.
25:56I'm also worried if they do like all the
25:57Heroine Wanted posters or something,
25:59like that could also be devastating
26:01to people's budgets.
26:03But, I'm going to sit tight and I'm not
26:04going to overpay for those with the hype
26:07and I'm setting that expectation now.
26:09And then finally, I am expecting there
26:11to be a a correction. I don't know when
26:12it's going to be. I think if we're
26:14getting more than 6 months from now and
26:15it hasn't happened yet, that would be a
26:16little bit of a surprise to me, but, you
26:18know, anywhere in that time range is
26:20really, really difficult to say, but I
26:22want to be mentally prepared for when it
26:23comes. And again, this comes down to
26:25risk tolerance, right? Like, if I'm
26:26sitting on something that is worth way
26:28more now than it's worth to me, like,
26:31knowing that a correction could come in
26:32the future, like, I don't just want to
26:34wait and wait and wait and then miss my
26:35opportunity to cash in on that. So, I
26:37think this is what everybody needs to be
26:38thinking about if they want to think
26:39strategically about how to achieve their
26:42individual collecting goals. So, that's
26:43all I have for today. I hope you found
26:45this interesting. As I said in the
26:46beginning, I don't expect my predictions
26:47here to be right, right? I just intend
26:49this to be a thought exercise to help us
26:51think what might happen in the future
26:52and how we would react to it. If you
26:54disagree with my takes, if you have some
26:56insights about what you think is going
26:57to happen, please hit me up in the
26:58comments. I'd be really interested in
27:00hearing it and engaging about it. You
27:02know, if you found this video helpful,
27:03please give us a like. If you haven't
27:04already and you enjoy the content,
27:06please subscribe. You know, we also have
27:07our TCGplayer affiliate link. We have
27:09our eBay affiliate link. No pressure,
27:11but it does help us out a bunch. So,
27:14with that, as always, I appreciate your
27:15time and I will see you in the next one.

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