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Market Mechanics Ep 8: Premium and Discount — Transcript

by Brad Goh (The Trading Geek) · 4,874 words · 744 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Full transcript

  1. 0:00One of the biggest reasons traders get
  2. 0:02trapped is because they buy too high and
  3. 0:06they sell too low. They see a bullish
  4. 0:08market and buy right after prices
  5. 0:11already moved to the upside. Or they see
  6. 0:13price going down and then they sell
  7. 0:15right into the lows.
  8. 0:17But smart traders understand premium and
  9. 0:20discount. They know when price is cheap,
  10. 0:23when price is expensive, and where they
  11. 0:27actually want to do business.
  12. 0:29Now, in this lesson, I want to show you
  13. 0:31how to add premium and discount, which
  14. 0:33is a very useful tool,
  15. 0:35so that you can trade with much more
  16. 0:37precision.
  17. 0:39Because finding a zone is one thing.
  18. 0:41Like what we covered in the previous
  19. 0:42lesson, it's easy to mark up supply and
  20. 0:44demand zones when you really understand
  21. 0:46the principles behind them.
  22. 0:48But knowing whether that zone is in a
  23. 0:51good part of the range is what separates
  24. 0:54average traders from precise traders.
  25. 0:58So, let's go through premium and
  26. 1:00discount. One of my favorite tool, which
  27. 1:01is so simple to use, I can't even
  28. 1:03believe that I'm dedicating a lesson
  29. 1:05towards these two because it's really
  30. 1:07that simple. I'm going to break it down
  31. 1:09step by step as usual. Right, so first
  32. 1:11of all, what are premium and discount?
  33. 1:13Right, premium and discount is a basic
  34. 1:15principle that can be used when we
  35. 1:16purchase goods and services and also in
  36. 1:19the financial markets. For example, when
  37. 1:23a laptop is on a discount,
  38. 1:25this means that it's cheaper than retail
  39. 1:27price. This also means that more people
  40. 1:30would want to buy that specific laptop,
  41. 1:32thereby there'll be an increase in
  42. 1:34demand for it.
  43. 1:36If you apply that same concept into the
  44. 1:38financial markets, you will know that
  45. 1:40when price is at a premium, ideally
  46. 1:43there's going to be supply. When price
  47. 1:45is within a discount range, ideally
  48. 1:48there should be demand. So now we can
  49. 1:50use
  50. 1:51premium and discount to decide when to
  51. 1:53buy low and when to sell high in order
  52. 1:55to make a profit from our trades.
  53. 1:58So, the premium pricing, which is pretty
  54. 2:01much above the 50% of the range itself,
  55. 2:05this is an area where price is
  56. 2:07relatively expensive
  57. 2:10within the range itself. And then the
  58. 2:11discount is an area where price is
  59. 2:14relatively cheap within the range.
  60. 2:16So, how you draw the premium and
  61. 2:17discount is to follow these three steps
  62. 2:20right here. But before I go through
  63. 2:22these three steps, I want you guys to
  64. 2:23copy my settings when it comes to this
  65. 2:26tool itself. Right, I'm going to show
  66. 2:28you guys where to get this tool. So,
  67. 2:29just go to TradingView, go to fib
  68. 2:32retracement, which is this one right
  69. 2:33here, click on it, and then you can just
  70. 2:36draw and your default one will probably
  71. 2:38look something like this, right? Looks
  72. 2:40very, very ugly. We don't want that. We
  73. 2:43want to change it to become premium and
  74. 2:45discount. So, what you want to do is to
  75. 2:47double click on it and then
  76. 2:49just copy my exact settings right here.
  77. 2:51Right, so whatever I have on the screen
  78. 2:52right here, just go and copy it over.
  79. 2:55You can just pause this video and do
  80. 2:56that right now.
  81. 2:58Now,
  82. 2:59let's talk about how to actually use
  83. 3:01them on the charts itself.
  84. 3:04Like I said earlier,
  85. 3:06premium and discount applies not just in
  86. 3:08the real world, but also in the
  87. 3:10financial markets.
  88. 3:11This means that when price is in a
  89. 3:13discount zone, which is below the 50%
  90. 3:15level, below the equilibrium level of
  91. 3:18the entire range,
  92. 3:20long positions are considered high
  93. 3:22probability. So ideally, we want to look
  94. 3:25for longs when price gets down to a
  95. 3:27discount pricing.
  96. 3:29When price is in the premium zone, above
  97. 3:32the 50% equilibrium level,
  98. 3:34short positions are considered high
  99. 3:37probability.
  100. 3:39This is how institutional traders, they
  101. 3:41sell high and they buy low. They wait
  102. 3:44for price to come down at a discount,
  103. 3:45then they scoop it all up. And then once
  104. 3:48price get up to a premium pricing, or
  105. 3:50when price is already in a premium
  106. 3:51pricing, they know that it's expensive
  107. 3:53right now, so they short it down.
  108. 3:56And how you use it is, like I said, just
  109. 3:59following these three simple steps right
  110. 4:01here.
  111. 4:02First of all, go and identify the market
  112. 4:04structure, right? Whether it's a bullish
  113. 4:06break of structure or a bearish break of
  114. 4:07structure. Once that's happened, then
  115. 4:10you can identify the swing low and the
  116. 4:12swing high, which is a swing range.
  117. 4:15Now, what you want to do is to just drag
  118. 4:16this premium and discount tool,
  119. 4:19just like this, from the swing low to
  120. 4:22the swing high, or vice versa. I'm just
  121. 4:26put that to my premium and discount and
  122. 4:27get this ugliest thing out of my way.
  123. 4:29So, yeah, you can see, that's how you do
  124. 4:31it, right? You pretty much just
  125. 4:33drag the premium and discount tool. Let
  126. 4:36me just show you guys
  127. 4:37it again. Let me just delete this.
  128. 4:39Right, just take the premium and
  129. 4:40discount tool, drag it from the swing
  130. 4:42low or to the to the swing high,
  131. 4:45or vice versa. It doesn't really matter
  132. 4:46like what order you do it in, right?
  133. 4:48Because
  134. 4:49you will come to the same conclusion
  135. 4:50that, okay, this is the entire range,
  136. 4:52above the 50% level, we are in a
  137. 4:54premium, below the 50% level, we are in
  138. 4:56a discount.
  139. 4:58So, this is where you will be able to
  140. 5:00know that if price is above the
  141. 5:02equilibrium, right? So, this is the
  142. 5:04equilibrium level, right? This middle
  143. 5:05line that you can see on the screen
  144. 5:07right now. If price is currently, let's
  145. 5:10say, somewhere around here, then we know
  146. 5:13that price is in the premium pricing.
  147. 5:15And we know that price will potentially
  148. 5:16go down even further, and this is where
  149. 5:18we can look for shorts and play the
  150. 5:20pullback
  151. 5:21until price comes down to the discount
  152. 5:23pricing. But the minute price comes
  153. 5:25down, goes below the equilibrium level,
  154. 5:28now price has officially entered into
  155. 5:30discount territory, which means that
  156. 5:33there's going to be demand at this area
  157. 5:34here. Right, so at any point of time, it
  158. 5:36could just reverse and head back up,
  159. 5:38continuing this bullish market
  160. 5:40structure.
  161. 5:42So, yeah, you basically use the premium
  162. 5:44and discount after you identify a swing
  163. 5:48range. Right, so you just place this
  164. 5:50tool on there, and then based on where
  165. 5:52price is currently at, you can determine
  166. 5:55the best course of action. So, if price
  167. 5:56is in a premium pricing, you ideally
  168. 5:58should look for shorts. If price is
  169. 6:00within a discount pricing, ideally you
  170. 6:01should look for longs.
  171. 6:03This is how you do it on a uptrend,
  172. 6:05right? On a bullish market structure.
  173. 6:08Now, let's look at a bearish market
  174. 6:10structure.
  175. 6:12Okay, so apply the same principles right
  176. 6:14here, right? So, we got price comes
  177. 6:15down, pulls back, and then goes down
  178. 6:17creating a bearish break of structure.
  179. 6:19This is the swing high and this is the
  180. 6:20swing low.
  181. 6:22So, in this case, we can just use our
  182. 6:24premium and discount tool once again,
  183. 6:26right? Drag it from the swing high to
  184. 6:28the swing low. Doesn't matter what order
  185. 6:30you do it can do it from the swing low
  186. 6:31to the swing high, or the swing high to
  187. 6:32the swing low. Doesn't matter. And then
  188. 6:35you put it all the way up there, and
  189. 6:36this is where we know that if price is
  190. 6:38above the 50% level, we should look for
  191. 6:40shorts. Price is within the 50 below the
  192. 6:4350% level, then ideally we should not
  193. 6:45look for shorts, right? Because this is
  194. 6:47just too early.
  195. 6:48So, in this case, what I've done is that
  196. 6:50I've combined supply and demand zones
  197. 6:52with the premium and discount concept.
  198. 6:55So, this is the swing low that led to
  199. 6:57the break I mean, this is a swing high
  200. 6:59that led to a break of structure, and
  201. 7:01using supply and demand, we know that
  202. 7:02this is the origin point of this
  203. 7:04imbalance move to the downside. So, that
  204. 7:06is where we can mark up a supply zone
  205. 7:08right there.
  206. 7:09So, in this case, ideally,
  207. 7:13I want to wait for price to come back up
  208. 7:15to a supply zone that is within premium
  209. 7:17pricing, then I look for shorts. Right,
  210. 7:19which means that if I see the same
  211. 7:20supply zone or another different supply
  212. 7:22zone happen somewhere within a discount
  213. 7:24pricing, just like this, it might be a
  214. 7:27little bit too early to look for shorts,
  215. 7:29because there's more room for price to
  216. 7:31pull back since price is still within
  217. 7:33the discount territory.
  218. 7:35So, in this case, I'm much better off
  219. 7:37just ignoring the supply zone within the
  220. 7:39discount pricing, because there's a very
  221. 7:40high chance that it's going to fail, and
  222. 7:42just waiting for price to come up to my
  223. 7:44supply zone that is within the premium
  224. 7:46pricing, within the premium range, then
  225. 7:48I look for shorts.
  226. 7:50Okay, so TLDR, bullish market structure,
  227. 7:54wait for price to enter discount zone
  228. 7:56before buying. Wait for price to come
  229. 7:58and mitigate a demand zone that is
  230. 8:00within the discount range, then look for
  231. 8:02longs.
  232. 8:03Bearish market structure, wait for price
  233. 8:05to enter premium zone before selling.
  234. 8:08Wait for price to come up and mitigate a
  235. 8:11supply zone within the premium range,
  236. 8:13then look for shorts.
  237. 8:16So, yeah, that's the theory for premium
  238. 8:17and discount. Like I said, I think it's
  239. 8:19super duper simple.
  240. 8:20I don't think
  241. 8:22it requires rocket science, right? I I
  242. 8:24think you can like master this with like
  243. 8:25five brain cells or something. So, yeah,
  244. 8:28it's very simple. Now, let's try to
  245. 8:29apply these onto the charts. Once again,
  246. 8:32just to reinforce your understanding of
  247. 8:34this concept itself. So, let me just
  248. 8:36remove all these drawings right here,
  249. 8:38and let's just go to like a random point
  250. 8:40in time. Okay, so let's just
  251. 8:43go bar replay and just go to like, you
  252. 8:45know, like let's say like right here.
  253. 8:46Okay? So, in this case, the first thing
  254. 8:49you want to do when you are trying to
  255. 8:51use this premium and discount concept is
  256. 8:53to determine when
  257. 8:55or where to place the tool. Okay, how do
  258. 8:57you know where to place the tool? Do you
  259. 8:58just place it right here? No. You want
  260. 9:01to find a swing range in which you plan
  261. 9:03to use this tool on.
  262. 9:05So, in this case, first step, always go
  263. 9:06and identify structure, right? So, in
  264. 9:08this case, I see that price is obviously
  265. 9:10bullish. How do I know that? I know that
  266. 9:12because price has just created higher
  267. 9:15highs, higher lows, higher highs, higher
  268. 9:16lows, and another higher high. So, this
  269. 9:19is where we can identify my bullish
  270. 9:20break of structure right here.
  271. 9:23And then with that in place, I know that
  272. 9:26the lowest point that led to the bullish
  273. 9:28break of structure, this is my swing
  274. 9:29low, so I can just map that out as my
  275. 9:32swing low right there. It's also a
  276. 9:33strong low since we're in a uptrend. And
  277. 9:36then this is my swing high, right? So,
  278. 9:40this is a weak high since we're in
  279. 9:42uptrend. So, we're expecting price to
  280. 9:44pretty much
  281. 9:46goes up, pulls back, goes up, pulls back
  282. 9:48create like a new higher low somewhere
  283. 9:50around here, and then continue going up,
  284. 9:52continuing the higher high and higher
  285. 9:54low dynamic because we are in a bullish
  286. 9:56market structure.
  287. 9:58And remember like what I mentioned
  288. 9:59earlier on,
  289. 10:00in a bullish market structure, you want
  290. 10:02to wait for price to enter discount zone
  291. 10:05before buying. Okay, so going back here,
  292. 10:07we have identified a swing high and a
  293. 10:09swing low, which is the first step. The
  294. 10:11second step is to drag the Fibonacci
  295. 10:13tool or the premium and discount tool
  296. 10:15from the swing low to the swing high.
  297. 10:18Right, so in this case, take my premium
  298. 10:20and discount tool right here, drag it
  299. 10:22from the swing low to the swing high
  300. 10:23just like this.
  301. 10:25Okay, so just by doing this alone, we
  302. 10:27know where exactly price is in right
  303. 10:29now. Okay, so this is where, like I
  304. 10:32mentioned, above the equilibrium level,
  305. 10:34this is your premium pricing. Below the
  306. 10:37equilibrium level, this is your discount
  307. 10:39pricing.
  308. 10:40And right now, look at where price is
  309. 10:42at. Price is somewhere at the 50% level.
  310. 10:46If we go back a few minutes before it,
  311. 10:49where price is at right now, you will
  312. 10:51see that this is
  313. 10:55very high up within the premium pricing
  314. 10:57itself. Which means that if today I want
  315. 10:59to look for longs to trade in
  316. 11:01continuation with this higher time frame
  317. 11:03bullish market structure,
  318. 11:05I should not be looking for longs right
  319. 11:06here.
  320. 11:07Because we are still quite high up
  321. 11:09within the premium pricing, and we could
  322. 11:11literally just be at the start of the
  323. 11:13pullback itself. Okay, that means
  324. 11:15there's more room for price to
  325. 11:16potentially drop into the discount
  326. 11:17pricing, and then once it does, then we
  327. 11:20can potentially look for longs to trade
  328. 11:22that new higher low.
  329. 11:25So in this case, if you want to trade
  330. 11:27counter trend, right, if you want to
  331. 11:28actually take advantage of the price
  332. 11:31action right now, what you can do is to
  333. 11:33look for shorts. Right, look for shorts
  334. 11:34to play the pullback to the downside.
  335. 11:37And just nice, the best time to look for
  336. 11:38shorts is obviously at the start of the
  337. 11:40pullback, and also when price is within
  338. 11:43the premium range, above the 50% level
  339. 11:46right here.
  340. 11:47So in this case, if you were to look for
  341. 11:48shorts, right, you can short it down,
  342. 11:50right, but
  343. 11:52understand that once price gets down
  344. 11:54into discount range, at any given
  345. 11:57moment, you could just shift bullish and
  346. 11:58price could just continue going up.
  347. 12:01Any moment, right, because this is where
  348. 12:03institutions are deeming price as cheap,
  349. 12:06so as a result, they're going to start
  350. 12:07looking for longs anytime right here.
  351. 12:10So now, let's go one step even further
  352. 12:12to apply what we just learned in the
  353. 12:14previous lesson, which is the supply and
  354. 12:15demand zones. So in the uptrend, ideally
  355. 12:18I want to be buying at demand zones.
  356. 12:20Okay, so downtrend, sell at supply zones
  357. 12:23because I'm expecting uh price to hold
  358. 12:25at all of these lower highs because the
  359. 12:27sellers are in control. In the uptrend,
  360. 12:29I want to buy at demand zones because
  361. 12:31price is going to be respecting the
  362. 12:33previous higher low. So in this case,
  363. 12:35I'm looking at this range right here,
  364. 12:37and let me just go back a little bit to
  365. 12:39where price was just now, and this is
  366. 12:41where I can try to map out every demand
  367. 12:44zone that I see on the screen right
  368. 12:45here.
  369. 12:45I always start from the extreme, right,
  370. 12:47so this is the range. Price goes up,
  371. 12:49right, so this could be a very obvious
  372. 12:51demand zone right here.
  373. 12:55Right, so just do the range method,
  374. 12:57right, I'll just mark this entire range
  375. 12:59over here.
  376. 13:00And then there's also
  377. 13:02another
  378. 13:04good oh supply and
  379. 13:07I'm just refine this a little bit.
  380. 13:09There's also another demand zone right
  381. 13:10here where price goes up, pulls back,
  382. 13:12and then goes up. Right, so this is
  383. 13:14another demand zone right here. And then
  384. 13:17there's another range right here, right,
  385. 13:19you see price consolidate a little bit
  386. 13:21and then goes up, right, so this could
  387. 13:22be another range. And then if I want to
  388. 13:24be even more precise, I can also draw
  389. 13:26this
  390. 13:27demand zone right here where price went
  391. 13:28up, pulls back, and then goes up. So in
  392. 13:31this case,
  393. 13:32notice how we have four demand zones on
  394. 13:35the screen right here. Okay, looks a
  395. 13:37little bit messy right now, but there's
  396. 13:39around four demand zones. And this is
  397. 13:42all using the range method. If I were to
  398. 13:43use the pivot method, which is just to
  399. 13:46draw the demand zone using the reversal
  400. 13:48candle, the pivot candle, it'd be a lot
  401. 13:50more precise, something just like this,
  402. 13:53this, and also something like this.
  403. 13:56Right, it's a lot more precise just like
  404. 13:58this.
  405. 14:00Yeah, but anyways, there's four demand
  406. 14:01zones on the screen. And you might be
  407. 14:03wondering which demand zones should I
  408. 14:06enter for longs? Right, like which is
  409. 14:07the demand zone in which I should be
  410. 14:10actually entering buy orders at?
  411. 14:13Well, this is where you combine this new
  412. 14:15concept of premium and discount.
  413. 14:17Remember, when price is within that
  414. 14:19premium, you don't want to enter for
  415. 14:21longs, right, because if you enter for
  416. 14:22longs, it's a little bit too premature.
  417. 14:24It is a little bit too early. So if
  418. 14:25that's the case, that automatically
  419. 14:27disqualifies this demand zone that is
  420. 14:29within the premium pricing, which is
  421. 14:31above the 50% level. So we can expect
  422. 14:33that demand zone to fail.
  423. 14:35And sure as hell, price did blast right
  424. 14:38through that demand zone, right, you can
  425. 14:39see price blast right through the demand
  426. 14:41zone, bang, disqualified, gone.
  427. 14:44What about this one right here? This one
  428. 14:45is within the
  429. 14:47discount pricing, right? So
  430. 14:50here's a pro tip for you guys.
  431. 14:52The more extreme the zone is within the
  432. 14:56range, the higher the probability.
  433. 15:00The higher the chance it's going to
  434. 15:02hold. What I basically mean by that is
  435. 15:04that
  436. 15:06this zone right here is the extreme
  437. 15:08zone, which is situated at the extreme
  438. 15:10swing low, is going to be much more high
  439. 15:12probability than like this low right
  440. 15:14here. I mean that this zone right here.
  441. 15:17Reason being, if you think back about
  442. 15:18market structure, which basically states
  443. 15:21that the previous low has to hold in
  444. 15:23order for price to remain bullish.
  445. 15:26So using that same definition, you will
  446. 15:28know that when price comes down to this
  447. 15:29extreme demand zone, it has to hold. It
  448. 15:32must hold in order for the bullish
  449. 15:34market structure to remain intact.
  450. 15:36Right, in order for price to just
  451. 15:37continue going up. So using that logic,
  452. 15:41the extreme zone is usually the most
  453. 15:43high probability.
  454. 15:46So in this case, this zone is much more
  455. 15:48high probability than this zone, and
  456. 15:50this zone is much more high probability
  457. 15:51than this zone. Because it's more
  458. 15:53further and deeper into the discount
  459. 15:55pricing, right, which means
  460. 15:57that there's a higher chance for this
  461. 15:58zone to work out compared to this zone
  462. 16:00over here.
  463. 16:01And sure,
  464. 16:03exactly just like what we thought, price
  465. 16:05came down to this demand zone, blast
  466. 16:07right through it. Okay, blast right
  467. 16:09through it, even though it was within
  468. 16:10the discount range.
  469. 16:12And then down price came down, blast
  470. 16:13right through this one as well, and then
  471. 16:15it came down to the extreme zone, the
  472. 16:17extreme demand zone.
  473. 16:18So I'm not going to talk about entries
  474. 16:19and exits because it's still way too
  475. 16:21early in this mentorship series. We're
  476. 16:22going to talk more about entries and
  477. 16:24exits later on. But for now, just
  478. 16:26understand that this is how you should
  479. 16:28be applying the premium and discount. In
  480. 16:31a bullish example like just like this,
  481. 16:33you want to find the low, the high, put
  482. 16:36the premium and discount tool, wait for
  483. 16:37price to come below the 50% equilibrium
  484. 16:40level, get into the discount pricing,
  485. 16:42mitigate some form of demand zone, then
  486. 16:45look for confirmation, then look for
  487. 16:47longs, and trade the upside.
  488. 16:50Okay, so
  489. 16:51once again, let's just see what price
  490. 16:52does next.
  491. 16:54Okay, price respected this zone,
  492. 16:56respected this zone,
  493. 16:58and then starts consolidating around
  494. 16:59here a little bit,
  495. 17:01right, starts consolidating around here
  496. 17:03a little bit, and then eventually it
  497. 17:04starts going up, and boom, going up
  498. 17:06there, and breaks structure, right, so
  499. 17:08it's going up there, creating another
  500. 17:10bullish break of structure to the upside
  501. 17:12right after it has mitigated our extreme
  502. 17:15zone that is within the discount
  503. 17:16pricing.
  504. 17:17Now over here, there's some form of like
  505. 17:19liquidity sweep, which is a concept that
  506. 17:20we're going to delve deeper later on,
  507. 17:23but you can see, in this case, this
  508. 17:25demand zone failed. This demand zone
  509. 17:27failed. Price gravitated towards the
  510. 17:29extreme demand zone
  511. 17:31because it's situated at the strong low,
  512. 17:34and it's also at the end of the discount
  513. 17:36range.
  514. 17:38So that's a bearish example. Now let me
  515. 17:40try to show you like uh No, that's a
  516. 17:42bullish example. Now let me try to show
  517. 17:44you like a bearish example.
  518. 17:47So once again, you can apply this
  519. 17:48concept across every single time frame.
  520. 17:51Okay, so I've just done it on the
  521. 17:5215-minute time frame. Now let me try to
  522. 17:54do it on the 5-minute time frame for you
  523. 17:56guys to see.
  524. 17:57Okay, so using this example right here,
  525. 17:59price is bearish, lower highs, lower
  526. 18:01lows, lower highs, lower lows. Right, so
  527. 18:03this is the most recent bearish break of
  528. 18:05structure, so I can just map that up.
  529. 18:08Which means that this is our swing high.
  530. 18:12And then this is our swing low.
  531. 18:16Okay, so now, what you can do is to
  532. 18:20actually
  533. 18:21map out your premium and discount,
  534. 18:23right, so that's the most obvious next
  535. 18:24step. Okay, so after you determine the
  536. 18:27trend direction, which is bearish, and
  537. 18:29you want to look for shorts,
  538. 18:31you want to identify your swing range,
  539. 18:32swing high, swing low. Once that's done,
  540. 18:34take out your fib retracement tool, drag
  541. 18:37it from the swing high to the swing low
  542. 18:38just like this, and bam, you got your
  543. 18:40premium and discount.
  544. 18:42So now, in a downtrend, we want to look
  545. 18:45for shorts
  546. 18:46when price is at the premium range.
  547. 18:49Okay, so I don't want to look for longs
  548. 18:50right here because this is where price
  549. 18:52is cheap. It's considered as a discount.
  550. 18:54So if I enter for shorts right here,
  551. 18:56it's a little bit too early. Okay,
  552. 18:58because there's more room for price to
  553. 18:59come up to within this premium pricing,
  554. 19:02and then start reversing and head back
  555. 19:04down.
  556. 19:06So in this case, let's just continue to
  557. 19:07see what price does, but before we do,
  558. 19:11let's say I want to look for shorts at
  559. 19:13using this trade idea here, where should
  560. 19:15I be looking for shorts? Ideally at some
  561. 19:17form of supply zone. Right, so once
  562. 19:19again, let's draw the supply zone. Okay,
  563. 19:21so always go from the extreme, this is
  564. 19:23the extreme supply zone. Right, this is
  565. 19:25the pivot candle that led to this huge
  566. 19:27imbalance move to the downside right
  567. 19:29there.
  568. 19:30And then there's another
  569. 19:32supply zone right here where price comes
  570. 19:35down, make a drastic pullback, and then
  571. 19:37goes down even further.
  572. 19:38And then another one right here. Let's
  573. 19:40refine it using the pivot candle, just
  574. 19:42like this.
  575. 19:44Just like this. Okay, so now there's
  576. 19:47one, two, three, three supply zones
  577. 19:49right here. Just nice, all of them is
  578. 19:51within the premium pricing itself.
  579. 19:54So like I said, the more extreme the
  580. 19:55zone is, the higher the probability, the
  581. 19:57higher the chance of it actually working
  582. 19:59out. Right? The more likely price is
  583. 20:01going to respect it. So if I'm judging
  584. 20:03these three zones right here,
  585. 20:06this zone right here, it has to hold in
  586. 20:09order for price to remain bearish.
  587. 20:10Right? Because that is literally where
  588. 20:12the last lower high is situated at. If
  589. 20:14price comes up there and take out the
  590. 20:15last lower high, this is where we have
  591. 20:18your market shift, which means then the
  592. 20:20trend direction is about to shift shift
  593. 20:22from bearish to bullish and right now
  594. 20:24the buyers are in control of price.
  595. 20:27So in this case, let's take a look at
  596. 20:28what happens next.
  597. 20:29Okay, so price mitigated this um second
  598. 20:32supply zone. It did not went up to the
  599. 20:34extreme.
  600. 20:35As you see that it consolidated a little
  601. 20:37around here a little bit. Right? Let's
  602. 20:38just continue to see what price does,
  603. 20:40continue to observe what price does.
  604. 20:42Okay, it seems like it's stuck in this
  605. 20:44consolidation here and nothing is
  606. 20:46happening whatsoever.
  607. 20:48Okay, cool.
  608. 20:50So in this case,
  609. 20:52what happened was that price came up
  610. 20:54there, mitigate this supply, right?
  611. 20:56Blast right through the supply because
  612. 20:58it was grabbing liquidity. Once again, a
  613. 20:59concept that we're going to delve deeper
  614. 21:01into.
  615. 21:02And I came up here, mitigate this supply
  616. 21:04zone right here and then reversed and
  617. 21:06caused price to hit all the way down
  618. 21:08here.
  619. 21:08All right. So in this case, this supply
  620. 21:11zone did does its job where there was a
  621. 21:13lot of sell orders that were situated at
  622. 21:14this area causing price to actually
  623. 21:17reverse to the downside. So if you were
  624. 21:19to look for shorts somewhere around
  625. 21:20here, you could have caught this little
  626. 21:22move to the downside right here.
  627. 21:24Right? But once again, going to delve
  628. 21:25deeper into entries and exits later on.
  629. 21:28So yeah, that's pretty much the premium
  630. 21:30and discount, right?
  631. 21:32Demand zone in discount, strong buying
  632. 21:35area.
  633. 21:36Supply zone in premium, strong selling
  634. 21:39area.
  635. 21:40Demand zone in premium, right? So let's
  636. 21:43say like this demand zone right here.
  637. 21:46Low quality. Most likely going to blast
  638. 21:48right through it.
  639. 21:49Or supply zone in
  640. 21:52um discount, low quality. Price is most
  641. 21:55likely going to blast through it.
  642. 21:57So you want to remember that the best
  643. 21:59zones, they are not just good zones.
  644. 22:01They are good zones that are located in
  645. 22:04the right part of the range.
  646. 22:06They are the demand zones that is within
  647. 22:08the discount range. They are the supply
  648. 22:10zones that is within the premium range.
  649. 22:14Okay? So that's how you use premium and
  650. 22:16discount, right? I think this is a very
  651. 22:18simple concept, so I don't want to like
  652. 22:20waste too much time on this.
  653. 22:22You can just apply this across all time
  654. 22:24frames, across all different market and
  655. 22:27asset classes and you will always be
  656. 22:29able to like just easily find a trade
  657. 22:32ideal once you start to really like
  658. 22:34combine these with supply and demand
  659. 22:35zones and market structure.
  660. 22:38So once again, to keep things simple,
  661. 22:40premium and discount helps you
  662. 22:41understand the value within a range,
  663. 22:43right? Whether it's actually worth it to
  664. 22:45actually look for shorts right now or is
  665. 22:47it too early? Or is it too late? Right?
  666. 22:50When is the perfect time?
  667. 22:51In a bullish condition, you want to buy
  668. 22:54in discount. In a bearish condition, you
  669. 22:56want to sell at premium.
  670. 22:59And once again,
  671. 23:00this is just one piece of the puzzle.
  672. 23:03You need to combine it with supply and
  673. 23:05demand zones, market structure and later
  674. 23:07on liquidity concepts, all of this
  675. 23:09stuff. When you do, this is where you
  676. 23:11can start entering trades with
  677. 23:13sniper-like position.
  678. 23:15All right? So yeah, I hope this got this
  679. 23:17concept has like really helped you guys
  680. 23:20you know, like get a little bit better
  681. 23:22understanding of how to analyze a blank
  682. 23:24chart, right? Because as traders, we
  683. 23:26want to make use of as many tools as
  684. 23:28humanly possible in our arsenal to just
  685. 23:31help us develop our trade ideal. To just
  686. 23:33help us determine our trade bias whether
  687. 23:35to look for longs and look for shorts.
  688. 23:37And honest to God, like this is one of
  689. 23:39my favorite tools to use of all time
  690. 23:42because it's so simple and most
  691. 23:44importantly, it is so effective.
  692. 23:47Like yes, 80% of the time, yes, like
  693. 23:50always it has never failed me, right?
  694. 23:52Basically like maybe only 20% of time it
  695. 23:55actually fails me, but like most of the
  696. 23:56time it works and it works ridiculously
  697. 23:59well. So yeah, just use this.
  698. 24:02Uh it doesn't just apply for swing
  699. 24:03range, you can also try to use it on
  700. 24:05internal range as well. You can also try
  701. 24:06to use it on the higher time frame,
  702. 24:07lower time frame. It's just like the
  703. 24:09context in which you're applying it will
  704. 24:12determine like
  705. 24:14what are
  706. 24:16the answer you can get from it, right?
  707. 24:18Basically, what I mean by that is that
  708. 24:19if you use the premium and discount on
  709. 24:21the daily time frame itself,
  710. 24:23what this does is that it can
  711. 24:25potentially tell you where price is
  712. 24:26going to move towards over the next few
  713. 24:28days.
  714. 24:29Compared to if you use the same tool on
  715. 24:31the 5-minute time frame, it can tell you
  716. 24:33where price is at right now and where
  717. 24:36price is most likely going to go within
  718. 24:37the next few minutes. Right? So it's
  719. 24:40like you can use this concept across all
  720. 24:42time frames.
  721. 24:44Just make sure that you are tailoring
  722. 24:46tailoring it and just make sure that you
  723. 24:48are managing your expectation when
  724. 24:50you're using it. Okay? Don't use like a
  725. 24:52premium and discount on the daily time
  726. 24:53frame while you're entering the trade on
  727. 24:55like the 5-minute time frame. Right?
  728. 24:58Like it just doesn't line up. You can't
  729. 24:59expect that, oh wait, price is within
  730. 25:02the premium pricing right now, so I'm
  731. 25:03just going to enter for a sell right
  732. 25:04here. No, that's just not how it works,
  733. 25:06right? So you want to combine your
  734. 25:08multi-time frame concepts, you want to
  735. 25:10combine the market structure, additional
  736. 25:13confluence as to just build your trade
  737. 25:16ideal so that you have more evidence to
  738. 25:19back up your trade ideal so you can have
  739. 25:21more conviction holding the trade
  740. 25:23itself.
  741. 25:24Okay? So with that being said, I look
  742. 25:26forward to seeing you guys in the next
  743. 25:28lesson. Cheers. As always, remember
  744. 25:30you're just one trade away.

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