Market Mechanics Ep 30: Trading High Impact News — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Most traders do not lose on news days
- 0:02because news is random. They lose
- 0:05because they treat news like a casino.
- 0:08That's it. They see the volatility, they
- 0:10see the big candles, they see price
- 0:12moving so fast and they think that that
- 0:14means opportunity. But in reality, this
- 0:17right here is not a clean trading
- 0:20opportunity. It is a risk event.
- 0:23Okay, so a lot of times when a high
- 0:26impact news release, be it NFP or FOMC
- 0:30or CPI, right? What tends to happen is
- 0:33that price tends to either move up or
- 0:35down by 100 pips. Like for example, in
- 0:38this case.
- 0:39Before the news comes out, price tends
- 0:41to consolidate in a tight range just
- 0:43like this where there's a lot of
- 0:44uncertainty in the market as the market
- 0:47prepares for the upcoming release of the
- 0:50news itself, right? So, this is where
- 0:51price tends to be a little bit choppy
- 0:53right here.
- 0:54And a lot of time, a lot of retail
- 0:56traders, what they do is that they just
- 0:58wait for the news to come out and then
- 1:00when price starts going down, they
- 1:01immediately start entering for a sell.
- 1:03And then sometimes it work out. And if
- 1:06it work out, good job for you. Sometimes
- 1:08it doesn't work out, right? Price starts
- 1:09going up. And sometimes what can even
- 1:12happen is that price comes down and then
- 1:14goes up straight away by 100 pips,
- 1:16causing you to get stopped out, causing
- 1:18you to get trapped in this
- 1:20manipulation.
- 1:21All right.
- 1:23That's what tends to happen. When major
- 1:25news drops, the spreads will widen,
- 1:27liquidity will start disappearing, and
- 1:29price can spike both ways. That's like
- 1:31the danger of trading news. The market
- 1:34might sweep both swipes, right? Might
- 1:36sweep sell-side liquidity and buy-side
- 1:38liquidity and then later on, then price
- 1:41will actually move in a particular
- 1:42direction. Which is why my best advice
- 1:45for people who want to trade news is to
- 1:47just don't trade news. All right, that's
- 1:49it. Just don't. Okay, just don't. I've
- 1:51learned that this the hard way. I've
- 1:52lost so much money trying to trade news
- 1:54in my first year of trading. And the
- 1:56thing is, yes, you might make some money
- 1:58here and there, right? But it's not
- 2:00sustainable. And if you do make money
- 2:03from trading news, it's a bad thing
- 2:05because you pretty much just reinforce
- 2:07the behavior of trading news. And then
- 2:09you tend to repeat what you got rewarded
- 2:11for in the past. So, you now you're
- 2:13addicted to trading news. And next time
- 2:16your luck runs out, market manipulation
- 2:18takes place, and you lose a lot of
- 2:20money.
- 2:21But then now you get addicted to the
- 2:22pain of losing money trading the news.
- 2:24And then now you continue trading news.
- 2:26And then next thing you know, you blow
- 2:28your account. Right? So, please, for the
- 2:30love of God, do not try to trade news
- 2:33because it is honestly just a gamble.
- 2:36Yes, there are certain strategies out
- 2:37there like, "Oh my god, what if I just
- 2:39place like a buy stop order right here
- 2:41and then like a sell stop order right
- 2:43here and then whatever direction price,
- 2:45you know, go to, I'm I'm going to get
- 2:47triggered into that trade." All of this
- 2:49trade, but end of the day,
- 2:51trading the news is just gamble. All
- 2:53right. So, yeah, that's pretty much it.
- 2:55Thank you for watching this. No, I'm
- 2:56just kidding. But yeah,
- 2:58I believe that your job as a trader is
- 3:01to understand the news. Okay? Like you
- 3:03still need to understand news because
- 3:05news is why price move the way it move.
- 3:08Technicals show you how price move. News
- 3:11tells you why price move.
- 3:14So, you don't need to be some macro
- 3:15expert, you don't need to have a PhD in
- 3:17economics, you don't need to memorize
- 3:19every economic release.
- 3:21You don't need to try to predict the
- 3:23headline. Your job is simply to know
- 3:26what the news are and where the
- 3:29landmines are.
- 3:30All right? So, it's like when the news
- 3:32are occurring and then you can avoid
- 3:34trading those times itself.
- 3:38And once again, if you ignore
- 3:39fundamentals, what tends to happen is
- 3:41that you might get caught in a move that
- 3:43makes no sense through the lens of a
- 3:45setup alone. What I basically mean by
- 3:47that is that technical wise, like right
- 3:48now if we are looking at this price
- 3:50action over here, price is obviously
- 3:51bullish, right? Price is obviously
- 3:53bullish because of the market shift over
- 3:54here. Price is creating higher highs,
- 3:56higher lows, and you might be tempted to
- 3:58look for a long position somewhere
- 3:59around here. Or you might have already
- 4:01been in a long position somewhere around
- 4:03here and you place a stop loss below
- 4:04these lows right here. So, your
- 4:06technical trade idea, your technical
- 4:08analysis is telling you that price is
- 4:09going to go up, right? What can possibly
- 4:11go wrong, right? And then later on at
- 4:14around 8:30 p.m. Singapore time,
- 4:18non-farm payroll comes out and it
- 4:20stopped you out just like this. You can
- 4:22see the trend direction of the market
- 4:23just reverse 180 just because of a news,
- 4:30just because the fundamentals of GU has
- 4:33changed.
- 4:35So, if you were not aware of the news,
- 4:37if you not you were you were not aware
- 4:38that, you know, there's news at 8:30
- 4:40p.m., then guess what?
- 4:42You would have been stopped out and you
- 4:44would have no idea why you got stopped
- 4:45out.
- 4:46So, it's important for you to understand
- 4:48what this news is, right? Like what does
- 4:50non-farm payroll means? All right, what
- 4:52does CPI actually means? Understand
- 4:55the definition of each one of these news
- 4:57and how it affect price and then also
- 4:59understand the time in which those news
- 5:02tends to
- 5:03appear, right? The date and time. And
- 5:04then try to avoid those those periods
- 5:07itself.
- 5:08Which is what we're going to go through
- 5:09in the next part itself.
- 5:11Like I said, the goal of high impact
- 5:13news is not to gamble on the release of
- 5:16the news itself. It's to know when the
- 5:19risk is getting elevated, when slippage
- 5:21is increasing, when the liquidity is
- 5:23getting lesser, how to protect your
- 5:26capital and avoid getting trapped by the
- 5:28volatility you were never prepared for
- 5:30in the first place. Avoid getting
- 5:32trapped in this market manipulation. So,
- 5:34that should be your mindset when
- 5:35approaching news. Right? So, in the next
- 5:38section, in the next segment of this
- 5:40video, I'm going to show you how to
- 5:41handle all of that inside Edge Flow
- 5:43using the economic calendar. So, you can
- 5:45actually see the landmines before you
- 5:47step on them.
- 5:49All right? So, with that being said, let
- 5:50me show you how to use the economic
- 5:51calendar inside Edge Flow to filter what
- 5:54matters,
- 5:55plan around high impact releases, and
- 5:57avoid treating news like a gambling
- 5:59event. So, on Edge Flow you can find a
- 6:01news and economic calendar feature here
- 6:03just by clicking news. And this is where
- 6:05you will be able to see all the news
- 6:08that is coming up for the day, for
- 6:10tomorrow, for next week, for next month,
- 6:12this month, so on and so forth, right?
- 6:14And this is literally all the news that
- 6:15is available right now in the market.
- 6:18And this is really like a daily landmine
- 6:20map, right? This is where you want to
- 6:22see, okay, when are the high impact news
- 6:24coming up? And then this is where I
- 6:25might want to trade around it. I might
- 6:27want to avoid trading it completely.
- 6:29Uh this is where you can scan for news
- 6:32that is related to the currencies on
- 6:34your watch list, right? You can just
- 6:35filter it to like the currencies that's
- 6:36on your watch list right here. You can
- 6:38even filter it by impact level, right?
- 6:40So, if you only want to see high impact
- 6:41news, it will only show you high impact
- 6:42news, uh so on and so forth. You can
- 6:44even filter it by categories right here.
- 6:47When you come in here, the first thing
- 6:48you must do is to really just going to
- 6:49filter it by like the currencies that
- 6:51you want to be trading, right? The
- 6:53currencies that you're already trading
- 6:54on your watch list, right? So, whether
- 6:56that's EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, whatever. So,
- 6:59in this case, like say I'm trading
- 7:01um EUR/USD and I'm trading GBP/USD, I'm
- 7:04trading GBP/JPY as well, and I'm also
- 7:06trading the Canadian dollar, right? This
- 7:08is where I'll just select these currency
- 7:10pairs so I only look at the high impact
- 7:12news that is related to these currency
- 7:14pairs, right? Anything outside of those
- 7:16are just noise.
- 7:17And then this is where, like I said, you
- 7:19just want to focus on the high impact
- 7:20news. All right? So, you can see this is
- 7:23the time that is at right now. It's
- 7:24around like 2:13 a.m. UTC right now. And
- 7:28then the next news that is coming out is
- 7:30the Japanese
- 7:31yen news of the three-month bill
- 7:33auction, but it's like a low impact
- 7:34news, so it's kind of like irrelevant.
- 7:37Yeah, but like this is where you can
- 7:38kind of know, all right, cool.
- 7:41This is where I'm at and these are the
- 7:42news that is coming out next and these
- 7:44are the news that has already passed.
- 7:46Right? And I only want to focus on the
- 7:48high impact news that is relevant to my
- 7:50watch list. Right? So, maybe I can just
- 7:52filter it out. And then this is where I
- 7:53can just see, okay, at this time, at
- 7:567:00 a.m. later on, retail sales is
- 7:58going to come out for GBP.
- 7:59At 1:30 p.m. later on, personal income
- 8:04is going to come out for USD.
- 8:07Right? Like I said, there's no point
- 8:09reading every single low impact, medium
- 8:12impact news on here. You just want to
- 8:15focus on the high impact news.
- 8:18And the cool part about Edge Flow is
- 8:20that we also have a calendar view. And
- 8:22once again, I I don't know why that
- 8:23there's no other news provider that does
- 8:25this, right? But I was like, "We need
- 8:27this feature because this is something
- 8:29that forex traders like to look at." Is
- 8:31to just know exactly on the day that
- 8:34they are trading which uh is there going
- 8:36to be any high impact news, right? So,
- 8:38at the first glance you can see, okay,
- 8:40today is there high impact news. If
- 8:42there's a red outline just like this,
- 8:44that means there's a high impact news on
- 8:45the day. If there isn't, that means
- 8:47there's no high impact news. And then
- 8:48based on this you can also find out,
- 8:50okay, on this day itself, how many high
- 8:52impact news are there and how many
- 8:54medium impact news, how many low impact
- 8:56news are there going to be happening on
- 8:58the day itself, right? So, once again,
- 9:00when you have this calendar view, this
- 9:03allow you to see at a high level which
- 9:05days are loaded with high impact news.
- 9:08This helps you plan ahead and be extra
- 9:10cautious. Like for example, if I see
- 9:12tomorrow is going to be like a red
- 9:13folder, then this is where I will know,
- 9:15okay, tomorrow there's going to be high
- 9:16impact news. Let me go and find out what
- 9:18time are the high impact news coming
- 9:20out. And then maybe I want to be trading
- 9:22around those times itself.
- 9:24Another example is if you are trading a
- 9:26platform that doesn't allow you to hold
- 9:28positions through certain news events,
- 9:31this makes it obvious which days you
- 9:33need to manage your risk title, which
- 9:35days you need to close your positions
- 9:37early before the news come out, uh which
- 9:39days you could like just trade around
- 9:41the news itself, right? So, this is a
- 9:42very cool feature that we have, the
- 9:44calendar view here.
- 9:46Now, the thing about trading news is
- 9:47that if you have any experience trading
- 9:48news, you will know that news candles
- 9:52are designed to spike both sides, right?
- 9:54So, a lot of times when a high impact
- 9:55news comes out, price goes up by 100
- 9:57pips, and then later on price comes down
- 9:59by another 100 pips because of market
- 10:01manipulation. Which also means that if
- 10:03you don't have a system that is
- 10:05specifically tested for news, you
- 10:08shouldn't be trading news at all. Right?
- 10:10Because remember, we are not here to get
- 10:11lucky. We're not here to gamble.
- 10:13You are trading the news without
- 10:15understanding the news that's going to
- 10:16come out. It's like you trying to get a
- 10:18lottery ticket and praying that you are
- 10:20going to be winning the lottery. Okay?
- 10:23We are here to get consistent. We're not
- 10:25here to get lucky.
- 10:27And here's a huge part when it comes to
- 10:29discipline that we have inside Edge
- 10:31Flow. Right? This news feature here,
- 10:33what we can give you is the ability to
- 10:36block trading
- 10:38when there's a high impact news. So, if
- 10:40you click on this button right here,
- 10:42the block trading settings, this is
- 10:44where you can turn on the toggle
- 10:46on
- 10:47the ability to block trading for high
- 10:49impact news in your watch list. Right?
- 10:52So, it's pretty much just going to be
- 10:53scanning the currency pairs that you
- 10:54have on watch list, and it's going to be
- 10:56blocking trading
- 10:58when there's a high impact news that is
- 11:00related onto the currency pairs on your
- 11:02watch list if you turn this on.
- 11:04Okay? So, once again, this means at any
- 11:06point of time, if there's a red news
- 11:07event that affects the currency pairs
- 11:09that you're going to be trading, Edge
- 11:11Flow will literally stop you from
- 11:14entering trades during that window.
- 11:17And this is where you can set a block
- 11:18window.
- 11:20The default state is probably like 15
- 11:21minutes, right? But you can set it to 5
- 11:24minutes, 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 60
- 11:26minutes.
- 11:27And then you can also set the block
- 11:28behavior, right? Whether you want it to
- 11:31block trading before the high impact
- 11:32news or after the high impact news, or
- 11:35block trading before and after the high
- 11:38impact news.
- 11:39Once again, completely up to you, right?
- 11:41I would recommend you to at least put it
- 11:44at 15 minutes before and after high
- 11:46impact news.
- 11:47Okay? And then once done, you can just
- 11:49hit save.
- 11:50When you do this, what happens is that
- 11:52it prevent you from getting wiped out,
- 11:54right? It prevent you from, you know,
- 11:56getting trapped in unpredictable move in
- 11:58the market. It prevent you from getting
- 12:01into the
- 12:03insane volatility that tends to happen
- 12:05when a high impact news come out. Which
- 12:07means that you don't enter right before
- 12:09the spread start widening and liquidity
- 12:11start disappearing. You don't get wicked
- 12:14out from slippage and random volatility,
- 12:17and it won't rage click a revenge trade
- 12:19after you get taken into the trade
- 12:21itself.
- 12:22The key point here is this
- 12:24ability to block trading before and
- 12:27after high impact news, it's simply a
- 12:29mechanism for Edge Flow to protect you
- 12:31from impulse. Protect you from getting
- 12:34trapped in move that you shouldn't be
- 12:35part of.
- 12:37Once again, it's not trying to make you
- 12:38trade more. It's trying to keep you
- 12:39alive and disciplined so your edge can
- 12:42actually play out.
- 12:45All right. So, now let's talk about how
- 12:47to actually trade news. Okay? Because
- 12:48there are simply just three ways that
- 12:51you can trade news. There's only three
- 12:53options. And for majority of the traders
- 12:55watching this, I would advise you to
- 12:57stick to option A, which is avoid it
- 12:59completely.
- 13:01Right? Doesn't matter whether you are
- 13:02beginner, intermediate, or advanced
- 13:04trader,
- 13:06it's always some sort of gamble if you
- 13:08trade the news. Because what happens is
- 13:10that the news can come out saying that,
- 13:12okay, it's a good news, right? And good
- 13:13news means US dollar is probably going
- 13:15to go up.
- 13:16But then,
- 13:18it can still go down because of market
- 13:20manipulation.
- 13:21Right? That is where you hear the the
- 13:23the quote, which is quite renowned Wall
- 13:25Street, which says, "Buy the rumor, sell
- 13:28the news."
- 13:29Right?
- 13:30Buy the rumor, sell the news. Okay? It's
- 13:32the exact same thing right here because
- 13:35a lot of times the news has already been
- 13:37factored in, right? Which means you tend
- 13:38to see the move happen before the actual
- 13:40news come out, right? So, even though US
- 13:42dollar is good,
- 13:43but when the news comes out,
- 13:46US dollar actually start dumping.
- 13:49So, lots of market manipulation right
- 13:51here. So, for majority of the traders
- 13:53out there, I'll just highly recommend
- 13:54you to just avoid it completely, which
- 13:56means you don't open new positions
- 13:59during that window where the news is
- 14:00coming out, like 15 minutes before and
- 14:02after news.
- 14:03And then after the news came out, you
- 14:05want to wait for the volatility to
- 14:06settle, maybe 30 minutes to 60 minutes
- 14:08after the high impact news comes out.
- 14:10Once the structure start becoming much
- 14:12more clearer, this is where you can
- 14:13continue trading.
- 14:15Okay? So, option A,
- 14:17perfect, the best option for majority of
- 14:18the traders out there.
- 14:20Now, option B,
- 14:21only trade if already in position. All
- 14:24right. So, let's say you enter a trade,
- 14:27you know, you enter for a buy on EUR/USD
- 14:302 hours before high impact news comes
- 14:31out.
- 14:32And during a like during the high impact
- 14:34news coming out, price haven't hit your
- 14:36TP, price haven't hit your stop loss
- 14:37yet, so you have no choice but to
- 14:39actually hold the position past the
- 14:41news.
- 14:42If that's the case, what should you be
- 14:43doing? Well, you could reduce risk,
- 14:46right? Maybe you want to close a portion
- 14:48of the position before the news actually
- 14:50comes out.
- 14:52Or maybe you want to move your stop loss
- 14:53to break even. Right? Once again, if
- 14:55rules allow you to do so, if the price
- 14:57action allows you to do so.
- 14:59And you just want to make sure that you
- 15:00don't widen stops emotionally, right?
- 15:03The last thing you should be doing is
- 15:04before a high impact news comes out, you
- 15:06start like widening your stop loss
- 15:08because you don't know which direction
- 15:10price is going to go.
- 15:12Right? So, if you're not already in the
- 15:14position, highly recommend you to stick
- 15:16to option A, like I said, just avoid the
- 15:19high impact news release completely and
- 15:20just trade after it.
- 15:22And then next, we got option C. Okay?
- 15:24Option C is to trade post news only.
- 15:28If you are more of an advanced trader,
- 15:31more of an intermediate trader with some
- 15:32experience under the belt, you know,
- 15:34you've been trading the news, you have
- 15:35been exposed to the volatility of the
- 15:38high impact news for a few years, for a
- 15:40few months, you kind of understand like
- 15:42what the price action will be like after
- 15:44a high impact news release, then this is
- 15:46where you can consider option C, which
- 15:48is trade after the high impact news
- 15:50release.
- 15:52Trade the price action after the high
- 15:55impact news release. Because what tends
- 15:57to happen is that when the high impact
- 15:58news gets released, this is where you
- 16:00get all of this unpredictable move,
- 16:02right? Price goes up, down very
- 16:04dangerously.
- 16:06But after the high impact news comes
- 16:07out, this is where
- 16:09the market starts coming down. The
- 16:11market starts to update itself based on
- 16:14the new information that was presented
- 16:15during the high impact news. All right.
- 16:17This is where the market start becoming
- 16:18more rational.
- 16:20So, what you want to do when you're
- 16:21choosing option C is to let the spike
- 16:23happen, right? Let the news event, you
- 16:25know, comes out and become incredibly
- 16:27crazy. Let all the noise fade away,
- 16:30right?
- 16:31And then you want to wait for some form
- 16:34of liquidity sweep, some form of
- 16:36structure reclaiming itself, some form
- 16:38of structure shift,
- 16:40or even like price returning to a point
- 16:41of interest that you want to be entering
- 16:43the trade on.
- 16:44And then you can just execute your
- 16:45normal plan from there.
- 16:47Yeah. This is where you can just
- 16:48continue doing your technical analysis
- 16:50process, you know, map out your charts,
- 16:52determine where is the the best price
- 16:53point that you want to enter the trade
- 16:55on. Uh this is where you can just do
- 16:56your technicals, you know, like this is
- 16:58where it's safe to do that because the
- 17:00market has already taken into account
- 17:02the new information.
- 17:04So, those are the three options. Like I
- 17:06said, for majority of the traders out
- 17:07there,
- 17:08I would just recommend option A. Like
- 17:10it's just not worth it, right? It's just
- 17:12not worth to like, you know, gamble here
- 17:14and there because your goal here is to
- 17:16last
- 17:17in the game long enough so you can
- 17:19actually win consistently. Your goal
- 17:21here is not to hit like one lucky
- 17:23jackpot and just stop trading for the
- 17:25rest of your your life. No, it's to just
- 17:27make sure that you are consistent. Just
- 17:29make sure that you focus on survival
- 17:31rather than, you know, these big wins,
- 17:33you know, these boom and bust cycle
- 17:35where you make a lot of money, you lose
- 17:36a lot of money, you make a lot of money,
- 17:37you lose a lot of money, which is quite
- 17:39simply just not uns- it's just
- 17:41unsustainable.
- 17:44Now, here's what not to do, right? So,
- 17:45here's a little quick checklist right
- 17:47here.
- 17:48You shouldn't be placing a random market
- 17:49order because it feels bullish.
- 17:51You shouldn't be sizing up it to make it
- 17:53worth it. You shouldn't move your stop
- 17:55loss wider because the spread is crazy.
- 17:57And most importantly, you shouldn't
- 17:58revenge trade if you get wicked out.
- 18:02Okay? The last thing you want to do is
- 18:05you are in a position before the high
- 18:06impact news release, you get stopped out
- 18:08because of the high impact news release,
- 18:10and you start getting angry at the
- 18:11market. Now, you you start revenge
- 18:14trading. Now, you start trying to make
- 18:15back the money that you've lost. Now,
- 18:17you start trying to get back at the
- 18:18market.
- 18:19It's not worth it, trust me. Been there,
- 18:21done that.
- 18:23Yeah, remember, you want to trade the
- 18:25reaction, not the headline. Okay? Like
- 18:27if you're trading news, you want to
- 18:29trade the market's reaction to the news,
- 18:32not the news itself. Like I said
- 18:34earlier, the news can be good, but the
- 18:36currency that is related to the news can
- 18:38still start dumping because the market's
- 18:41reaction is all that matters. The
- 18:43market's reaction is what drive
- 18:45the price action of the market. It's the
- 18:47sentiment that actually drive price.
- 18:50It's not really like the fundamentals
- 18:51itself.
- 18:53Professionals don't need to trade every
- 18:54day, right? Remember that.
- 18:57They don't wake up thinking, "How can I
- 18:58force a trade today?"
- 19:00They wake up thinking, "How do I protect
- 19:02capital and wait for clean market
- 19:04conditions?" Because like I said
- 19:06earlier, this game is not about
- 19:08thriving. Before you can think about
- 19:10thriving, you need to think about how to
- 19:11survive.
- 19:13Longevity is the name of the game.
- 19:16And high impact news is one of the
- 19:18fastest ways to donate money if you
- 19:20treat it like entertainment. If you
- 19:22treat it like gambling. If you treat it
- 19:23like a casino.
- 19:25And that is why in Edge Flow, we have
- 19:26you remove temptation by baking our
- 19:28rules into the trading system so you are
- 19:30not relying on willpower when volatility
- 19:34spikes, right? That is what like this
- 19:36block trading function is for, right? Is
- 19:38to make sure that
- 19:39we prevent you from making stupid
- 19:41decisions. We prevent you from getting
- 19:44trapped in unfavorable market
- 19:46conditions.
- 19:48Last but not least, just remember that
- 19:50news isn't your edge. Your rules are.
- 19:53Use the economic calendar here to avoid
- 19:55the landmines. Let the volatility pass.
- 19:58Let the noise pass and then execute when
- 20:00conditions are normal again.
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