YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → Market Mechanics Ep 15: How To Find Daily Bias

Market Mechanics Ep 15: How To Find Daily Bias — Transcript

by Brad Goh (The Trading Geek) · 7,727 words · 1,150 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00Before we start, let's be clear what
0:02daily bias actually means. Because this
0:04is one of those phrases where retail
0:06traders just love to throw around. But
0:09if you ask them what it actually means,
0:11they just stare blankly at you. So,
0:13here's the real definition of daily
0:15bias. Daily bias is basically where you
0:19think price is most likely to move in
0:21the next 24 hours and why. Now, notice I
0:26said most likely, not certainly. Because
0:29amateur traders, they try to predict the
0:30market. They think that the only way to
0:32make money in this market is to be 100%
0:35certain on where price is going to go
0:36next.
0:37That's false. Professional traders, on
0:39the other hand, accept uncertainty,
0:41manage risk, and execute their plan
0:44consistently.
0:46So, understand that trading isn't about
0:48predicting price like you're a freaking
0:50fortune teller.
0:51No, it's about putting yourself in
0:54trades where the odds are on your side.
0:57And that's what daily bias gives you. It
1:00helps you filter out the setups that are
1:01most likely going to work in your favor.
1:04Once again, not guaranteed, just higher
1:07probability. Because no matter how
1:09confident you feel, your bias is still
1:12your perception of the market, not the
1:14market itself, not objective reality.
1:18Which means that you can still be wrong
1:19no matter how many conferences or
1:21confirmation you have. But when you
1:23actually have a daily bias, here's what
1:25happens. You will know exactly where to
1:28buy, where to sell. You will know where
1:31the market is most likely heading
1:33towards next, and you will know when to
1:35execute. What is the perfect time to get
1:37in so you can limit your downside
1:40and have a humongous upside.
1:42And most importantly, you will know when
1:45to stay out of the market.
1:48So, remember this. Bias isn't a
1:50prediction. Bias is a plan plus an
1:54invalidation,
1:56which means this is what I would think
1:58would happen, and this is what needs to
2:00happen for me to admit that I am wrong.
2:03And listen, if you don't have
2:05invalidation, which is something that
2:07can falsify your trade idea, you don't
2:09have a bias. You have hope. And to me,
2:12hope [snorts] is just outsourcing your
2:14responsibility to luck.
2:16Because now you're not trading a plan.
2:18You're just praying that price does what
2:21you want, and price will go where you
2:23want it to go.
2:24And my friend, luck is not a strategy.
2:27So, now that you understand why daily
2:29bias is so god damn important, let me
2:31just enlighten you with my five-step
2:34checklist that I personally use to
2:36develop my daily bias. And like I said,
2:38it's very simple, it's repeatable, it's
2:41profitable. Anybody can use it. Any Tom,
2:43Dick, and Harry from even freaking
2:45Wyoming knows how to use these five
2:47steps, all right? If you are able to
2:48apply these five steps, I can triple
2:50guarantee you that you will be able to
2:52figure out whether you should buy or
2:53sell, and when is the best time to buy
2:55and sell. So, the first step is to mark
2:57the higher time frame trend. So, you
2:59stop trading in the middle of nowhere
3:01like a freaking clown. You stop trading
3:03any move that you see on the market.
3:05So, what you want to do, very simple, is
3:07to just limit your focus. That's what
3:09we're doing when we actually refine our
3:12range. So, when I'm looking at a chart
3:13just like this on a 4-hour time frame, I
3:15saw price is obviously going up, because
3:17price is creating higher highs, higher
3:19lows, and higher high. So, what happens
3:21is that the first thing I want to do is
3:22to identify my break of structure right
3:24here, because when I do that, I can
3:27understand that price is in the uptrend,
3:29and I can also identify the swing range
3:31I want to be trading within, right?
3:33Which is this swing low right here,
3:34which is the lowest point that led to
3:36this break of structure, and then this
3:37is the highest point that led to price
3:39starts pulling back. Okay? So, just by
3:42doing this alone, I found out what's my
3:444-hour swing high, my week high, and my
3:464-hour swing low, right? Which is my
3:50strong low, right? So, just by doing
3:52this alone, you can see how I pretty
3:53much limit my focus from like all of
3:55this random price action which is
3:57irrelevant and is is in the past to what
3:59price is doing right now in the present
4:02moment. Right, and this is the range
4:04that I want to be focusing on. So,
4:06before you talk about buyers, before you
4:08talk about liquidity or supply and
4:09demand zones or anything in general, you
4:11need to figure out one thing. Where are
4:14we inside a higher time frame range?
4:16Because if you don't know that, you're
4:17pretty much going to be making decisions
4:19blind. Right, so this is exactly why we
4:21actually map out the 4-hour range. Once
4:24again, very simple, just find the most
4:26recent swing low and swing high and
4:28that's your range. So, once you've
4:30identified your higher time frame swing
4:31range, now you want to ask yourself, are
4:34we trading at a premium, discount, or
4:36the middle? And here's what I mean,
4:38right? In order for you to answer this
4:40question, you need to use the premium
4:41and discount tool. So, you can just go
4:43on the TradingView, come here, go to fib
4:45retracement, and you can drag it from
4:48the swing low all the way up to the
4:49swing high, just like this. I'm going to
4:51show you the settings on how to set up
4:53this premium and discount tool on the
4:54screen right now, right? So, you can
4:56pause this video and just copy these
4:57exact settings. But once you copy these
4:59exact settings, you will have something
5:01just like this, and basically, you can
5:04see this gray box right here. This is
5:06price within the premium pricing. This
5:07is price at the top of the range. And
5:10then this means that price is expensive,
5:12okay? And then below here, this means
5:14that price is within the discount
5:16pricing, right? This is the bottom of
5:18the range, which means that price is
5:20cheap. So, this means that when price is
5:22in the premium pricing, I don't want to
5:24enter for a buy. I don't want to buy
5:26when things are expensive. I want to buy
5:28when things are at a discount, right?
5:30When price is down here, which means
5:31that when price is expensive, I'm
5:33looking for shorts, right? I'm looking
5:35to short somewhere around here, or I'm
5:37staying patient, staying out of the
5:39market until price comes to the discount
5:41and I start looking for buys, right? And
5:43then when price comes down to the
5:44discount, right below the equilibrium
5:46level, which is the 50% level, this
5:48means that price is cheap, right? So,
5:51now I'm looking for longs and now I can
5:53potentially trade the move to the
5:54upside. And when price is in the middle
5:56of nowhere, like you can see in the
5:58middle of this range right here, this is
6:01where most retail traders donate money
6:03to the market or donate money to people
6:05who actually understand what they are
6:07doing, right? Because when price is in
6:08the middle of nowhere just like this,
6:10it's chop. It's very difficult for you
6:12to identify your bias. It's price being
6:15indecisive, right? And this is where you
6:17will get picked up like multiple times
6:19because you really don't understand like
6:21what's going on in the market. So, my
6:22rule is very simple. When price is in a
6:24premium, above the equilibrium level,
6:27look for sell. When price is below the
6:29equilibrium, within the discount level,
6:31right? Within the discount zone, look
6:33for buys, okay? It's just like when you
6:35go to the supermarket, you want to buy
6:37when price at a discount. You don't want
6:38to buy stuff when it's expensive.
6:41And then in the middle, reduce risk,
6:43right? Or just don't trade until
6:45[snorts] price reaches an extreme zone,
6:47which is either within a discount
6:48pricing or a premium pricing.
6:51This one step alone will instantly clean
6:53up your bias, right? Because now you're
6:55not guessing direction. You are trading
6:57location. You know exactly where to buy
7:01or sell so that you can actually
7:04capitalize on the next move to the
7:06upside or to the downside. So, that's
7:08the first step, right? You can see just
7:10by doing this first step alone, I'm
7:11looking at this, I know that, okay,
7:13cool. Right now price is within the
7:14premium pricing. So, I want to look for
7:16shorts, right? At least short it all the
7:17way down until price comes down into the
7:19discount pricing. And then once price
7:21comes into the discount pricing, I'm
7:23going to switch my bias and look for
7:24longs, right? So, that I can trade the
7:26continuation of this move and this is
7:28where the internal structure starts
7:30shifting bullish and now it's aligned
7:31with the higher time frame structure and
7:34this is where you can expect price to
7:35create a new higher low for price to
7:37continue going up and take out this
7:38higher high and just continuing this
7:40bullish market structure.
7:42Now, step two is that you want to mark
7:44liquidity,
7:45AKA where the stop orders are. Right?
7:48So, once you have figured out whether we
7:50are in a premium and discount, the next
7:51question you should be asking yourself
7:53is where's the obvious money sitting?
7:56Because price doesn't move randomly. It
7:59move to where orders are, which is what
8:01we call liquidity pools. Right? Because
8:03remember, smart money need that fuel in
8:05order for them to push price in the
8:07desired direction. So, I'm not going to
8:09go through every single type of
8:10liquidity pool in this video. I've
8:12already done multiple videos on
8:13liquidity. You can find it on my
8:14channel. So, to keep things simple for
8:16this video, I'm just going to share with
8:17you the two main liquidity pools that
8:19you should be using
8:21>> [snorts]
8:21>> to unfollow daily buyers. The first
8:23liquidity pool is the prior day high and
8:25prior day low. Right? So, you go to the
8:27daily candlestick and what you want to
8:28do is to look at the previous day.
8:31Right? So, this is today candlestick.
8:33This is the previous day candlestick.
8:35Right? So, if I'm looking at this just
8:36like this, you can see when you look at
8:38this previous day candlestick, this is
8:40the highest point that price went to
8:43during the past 24 hours. And this is
8:46the lowest point where price went to
8:48during the past 24 hours. Right? So,
8:50it's literally just yesterday's high and
8:54low.
8:55Right? So, you want to draw a line just
8:57like this to mark that up. Right?
8:59Because when you do that,
9:01you are pretty much just identifying the
9:03magnets where there's a ton of stops and
9:07breakout traders where which are like
9:08just patiently sitting to like trade it.
9:11So, this was the candlestick that was
9:12formed yesterday, right? And if you look
9:13at the candlestick that was formed the
9:15day before yesterday, like this one
9:17right here, you will see that what
9:19happened was that price actually came
9:20down and swept the prior day low before
9:24pushing to the upside. Similarly, it did
9:26came down to sweep the prior day high
9:29before pushing to the upside as well.
9:31Right? So, let me just like change this
9:32color to red so you can
9:34clearly see what that looks like on the
9:36lower time frame itself. Okay, so if you
9:38go down to the 4-hour time frame, you
9:40can see what happened. This was the
9:43prior day high. Price went up there,
9:45swept the prior day high, started
9:46reversing. This, somewhere around here,
9:49this was the prior day low. Price came
9:51down here, swept the prior day low, and
9:53then started reversing. Right, so that
9:55is why we actually try to identify our
9:58prior day and high and our low because,
10:00like I said, that is where retail
10:01traders uh breakout traders they are
10:03looking to trade those zones and that's
10:05where they're placing their stop losses
10:07or they're placing their stop orders.
10:08Right, so we can expect some form of
10:10liquidity to be sitting at those areas
10:12right there. Now, the next type of
10:14liquidity pool is equal highs and equal
10:17lows. If you see two or three highs at
10:19the same time, that's not resistance
10:22level, right? That's a stop loss pool.
10:24Same for equal lows, right? So, in this
10:26example, price came down here,
10:28goes up,
10:29comes down, goes up, and then comes
10:32down, right? So, you can see equal lows
10:34right here. Guess what? There's a bunch
10:35of liquidity right here. Price is coming
10:37down here, sweeping the liquidity below
10:39these equal lows, and right now we are
10:40pushing to the upside. Right, same same
10:42thing right here. Okay, over here we got
10:44equal highs. So, now we can expect price
10:46to come up there, sweep those equal
10:47highs, and for price to go down even
10:49further. So, when you're doing this, you
10:51want to ask yourself one question. Which
10:53side has the most obvious liquidity to
10:55run first?
10:56Which means that if you are sitting
10:59within the premium pricing,
11:01and above us there's a clean prior day
11:03high just like this,
11:05plus equal highs, what do you think
11:08price wants to do? Obviously, if price
11:10want to go down even further, it has to
11:12come up there, sweep the prior day high
11:14liquidity, sweep the available liquidity
11:16above these equal highs, and then use
11:18all of this liquidity to fuel price for
11:20price to go down even deeper. Once
11:22again, it doesn't have to, right? But if
11:24it wants to create a huge move to the
11:26downside,
11:27this is the move that we are waiting
11:29for, right? This is the liquidity sweep
11:31that we want to see before we get
11:33confirmation that price is going to head
11:34down even lower. Now, similarly, if we
11:37are sitting within the discount pricing
11:39right here, and let's say below here
11:41there's like equal lows, okay? Equal
11:44lows, available liquidity right here,
11:46prior day low right here, liquidity here
11:47as well, then what can we expect, right?
11:50We can expect price to later on come
11:51down, sweep the equal lows, right? Sweep
11:54the prior day low liquidity, whatever,
11:57tapping into the discount pricing right
11:58here, and then starting to reverse and
12:00hit up. Okay, so here's a disclaimer.
12:03When you have a liquidity sweep, it
12:04doesn't mean that price is going to
12:07reverse massively straight away.
12:09Liquidity just means target. It means
12:12where price tends to gravitate towards,
12:14which means that price might come down
12:16here and sweep the liquidity below these
12:18lows right here, but it doesn't
12:20necessarily have to reverse. It can just
12:23continue going down even further.
12:26Because in this particular case, supply
12:28might be stronger than months, that
12:30there might be more sellers than buyers
12:32in the market, and sellers might still
12:34be in control of the market, so there is
12:36insufficient liquidity right here for
12:38price to actually reverse. So as a
12:39result, price is just going to continue
12:41bearish. But either way, you need to
12:43know exactly where the market is pulling
12:46to first, because this allows you to
12:49figure out your immediate bias, right?
12:50So you know exactly where price is going
12:52to go towards, gravitate towards the
12:54next few hours or so. So once again,
12:56step two is literally just marking up
12:58your prior day high and prior day low,
13:01and then you also want to mark up any
13:02sort of like equal highs and equal lows,
13:04because those are the price points where
13:06we can
13:07see there's available liquidity. And
13:09then based on that, you can decide which
13:11side is the most obvious magnet. Right?
13:14So over here, what I want to see ideally
13:16is for price to come down, sweep these
13:18highs before going down even further.
13:20Once again, doesn't have to happen,
13:22right? But that just gives me an
13:23additional like sort of sense on where I
13:26can expect price to give it towards
13:28next. Now, step three is the part that
13:30most people scheme and that is why the
13:32buyers keeps flipping every 15 minutes,
13:35right? That is why they don't understand
13:36what they're doing when they go on
13:38through charts. Step three is to figure
13:41out the story.
13:42It's to build a narrative. To understand
13:45the objective of price, which means to
13:47determine whether we are in a
13:48continuation phase or a reversal phase.
13:52Because at any given moment, price is
13:53only going to be doing one of two
13:55things.
13:56It's either in a continuation,
13:58right? Continuing the trend that was
14:00established.
14:01Or is in a pullback phase, right? Where
14:04price is pulling back so that later on
14:06it can continue with the established
14:08trend, right? So, in this particular
14:09case, price went up.
14:12Continuation, pullback. Continuation.
14:15And then now, which phase are we in? We
14:17are in a pullback phase, right? Price is
14:19just a bearish in the short term to
14:20facilitate the pullback.
14:23And then, the next phase is going to be
14:25the continuation phase again, right?
14:26Because the market move from imbalance
14:28to balance to imbalance to balance to
14:30imbalance again. That's the app and flow
14:33of the market. That's the heartbeat of
14:34the market. And here's the key.
14:37There are only two types of trend you
14:38need to understand.
14:40Pro higher time frame trend, which means
14:42that the lower time frame
14:44is aligning with the higher time frame
14:46trend. The lower time frame is moving in
14:48the same direction as the higher time
14:50frame. So, right now the higher time
14:52frame, the daily time frame was showing
14:53us that price is going up, right? So,
14:56right now, if I want to trade pro higher
14:59time frame trend, I want to be trading
15:01the continuation move to the upside.
15:03The second type of move is the counter
15:05higher time frame trend. That means
15:07you're trading against the higher time
15:08frame trend. So, in this case, higher
15:10time frame trend bullish, right? So, if
15:12you're trading against the higher time
15:14frame trend, that means we are bearish.
15:16We are bearish in the short term, right?
15:18So, this means that the lower time frame
15:21is moving against the higher time frame,
15:23right? Once again, this is just price
15:25shifting bearish in the short term to
15:27facilitate the pullback.
15:30So, the rule is if you are counter
15:31higher time frame, we are in a pullback.
15:34So, you want to trade in a pullback
15:35direction until it completes.
15:38If you are in a pro higher time frame
15:40trend, that means we are in a
15:41continuation. So, you want to trade with
15:44the trend.
15:45And here's a quick warning for
15:46beginners. I don't recommend you trading
15:49counter higher time frame trend
15:51and counter lower time frame trend.
15:53Because that's how you get chopped up
15:55and start revenge trading. What I mean
15:57by that is that when price is against
15:59the higher time frame trend, that means
16:00we are in this pullback phase right
16:01here.
16:02That is the lower time frame trend. You
16:04can see lower time frame trend is
16:06bearish, okay?
16:07Which means that if you trade counter
16:09lower time frame trend, you're going
16:11against the bearish lower time frame
16:13trend and you're trying to enter for
16:15buys when price is clearly bearish right
16:17here. So, what happens is that you try
16:19to enter for buy right here, you try to
16:20enter for a buy right here, and as a
16:22result, you're just going to be catching
16:23a falling knife. You are just trading
16:25counter everything, right? And that's
16:27just not going to be effective, right?
16:29Because you are literally trading
16:31against the lower time frame trend,
16:32against the higher time frame trend, you
16:34are literally going against the
16:35institutional flow of money. So, once
16:38again, beginner, even like advanced and
16:40intermediate traders, you're much more
16:42better off not trading both counter
16:44higher time frame and counter lower time
16:46frame. And here's the rule of thumb. You
16:48basically always want to be trading with
16:50the internal order flow. Right? So, if
16:52the internal order flow is bearish just
16:54like this, right? The lower time frame
16:55trend is bearish, you just want to
16:56continue trading this bearish move,
16:58right? Just continue shorting the market
17:00until price comes down to the discount
17:01pricing, right? Until price starts
17:03reversing. Once again, you want to trade
17:05what price is currently doing, not what
17:08you hope it would do. Like I can sit
17:10here and say, "Oh my god, please, please
17:13go up, man, so that I can enter for a
17:15buy."
17:16And then I enter for a buy. Well, that's
17:17me trading what I think the market will
17:20do, and that's not me trading what the
17:22market is actually doing right now. And
17:24I want to be trading what the market is
17:25doing right now, right? So, if the
17:27market is going down, you should be
17:28selling. If the market is going up right
17:29now, then you should be buying. As
17:31simple as that. And then, once price
17:33eventually comes down deep into the
17:34discount pricing, then you can look to
17:37trade reverses. Because the deeper price
17:40comes into the discount pricing, the
17:41more extreme the zone is, right? Maybe
17:43like this demand zone right here.
17:46The higher the chance price is getting
17:48to ready to turn at any given moment.
17:51Now, this video is about setting daily
17:52bias, not entries, right? Because bias
17:55tells you which direction to hunt in.
17:58And where price is likely headed towards
17:59next. But your entry model tells you
18:02when exactly to execute, how to execute.
18:06Right? So, I'll just give you like a
18:07simple rule of thumb for confirmation in
18:09a second. But if you want my full entry
18:11checklist, I will highly recommend you
18:13to check out my other videos my other
18:15tutorials in the Market Mechanics
18:16playlist below. Right? You can just go
18:18and binge watch the entire playlist, and
18:19I can guarantee you you will learn so
18:21much in that playlist alone. Much more
18:23than any 997 trading courses that you
18:25can buy online, okay? So, basically,
18:27just to keep things simple, if my bias
18:29is bullish, I only want to look for
18:31longs after price have a liquidity sweep
18:33and there's a market shift or a break of
18:35structure on the lower time frame,
18:37right? So, in this case, price is
18:39actually still bearish because price is
18:40creating lower highs and lower lows.
18:42So, let's say this is the last lower
18:44high. Right? So, now I'm not going to
18:46enter for a buy until price take out the
18:48last lower high, confirming to me
18:50there's a shift in structure. And that's
18:53after some form of liquidity sweep.
18:55Right? And when that happens, I got my
18:56market shift, then now I can immediately
18:58just jump in and look for longs and just
19:00trade the continuation. Because now I
19:02got confirmation that the internal
19:03structure, the lower time frame trend
19:05has officially shifted. If your bias is
19:08bearish, it's the exact same thing but
19:10flipped around. Right? So, instead, what
19:12you want to do is that you want to look
19:14at this right here. Right? Let's say
19:15price is coming up here mitigating this
19:184-hour supply zone. All right, cool.
19:20What I'm going to look for is for price
19:22to
19:23start shifting bearish in the lower time
19:24frame. So, this is the last higher low.
19:27Right? So, I want to see price take out
19:28the last higher low after sweeping some
19:30liquidity maybe like right here maybe
19:32even above like this equal highs right
19:33here. And then when that happens, then
19:36that time is that okay, right now price
19:37is shifting bearish, you know, we are
19:39going deeper into the discount pricing.
19:42Okay? So, in this particular case,
19:43right, you can see price did come down
19:46taking out the last higher low right
19:48here giving us the market shift that we
19:50need. Right? So, let's say we decide to
19:52enter for a sell. Once again, I'm not
19:55going to dive deep into entries and
19:56exits in this video just going to like
19:58show you the example itself. So, once
20:01you enter for a sell right here, right,
20:03you got the entry confirmation whatever
20:04whatever and what you can do is to place
20:07a stop loss at a price point that
20:08invalidate that trade idea. Right? For
20:10me it's most likely going to be at this
20:11swing high. If it's uptrend, right, if
20:14I'm trading the reversal, it's going to
20:15be below the swing low.
20:17And for your take profit, you want to
20:19make sure that you only pick one target,
20:21right, which is step four. All right?
20:23Step four, take profit, just pick one
20:27target. Once again, this is where so
20:29many people mess up because they mark 10
20:30different targets, right? They want to
20:32set that take profit right here. They
20:33will also want to exit here. They also
20:34want to exit all the way down here,
20:36right?
20:37That's not how you do it. Okay? When you
20:39do that, what happens is that you're
20:40going to panic and you're going to
20:42manage the trade
20:43different ways at different price
20:45points. So, you only need one target for
20:48your daily bias, right? Because bias is
20:50not where price can go. Bias is where
20:53price is most likely to go next. So,
20:55when you're setting your take profit,
20:57you want to ask yourself, what's the
20:58most logical magnet from where price is
21:01right now? Like like where's the next
21:03price point where price is going to
21:04gravitate towards next? So, to me there
21:06are three mag decks that I really care
21:08about. The first one is the prior day
21:10high and the prior day low. Like I said,
21:11it's literally just yesterday high and
21:14yesterday low, right? Because that's
21:15where liquidity is sitting at. So, what
21:17you can potentially do is that you can
21:18target the prior day low just like this.
21:21The second sort of place to take your
21:23take profit is to actually ask yourself,
21:25what is the opposing zone, right? So, if
21:29we are in a premium pricing just like
21:30this
21:31and we are looking to short at a supply,
21:33I'm going to be taking profit at the
21:35next demand zone.
21:36Okay? If you are in discount pricing and
21:39we are looking for longs, right? Then
21:41I'm going to be taking profit at the
21:42next supply zone, right? So, what's the
21:44opposing zone where I can expect some
21:46form of reversal, some form of opposing
21:50um participants to enter into the
21:51market. And then the third place where
21:53you can place your take profit is an
21:54unfilled imbalance, okay? If there's a
21:57clear inefficiency, price tends to come
22:00back and fill it up, right? So,
22:01imbalance is basically when there's a
22:03gap in price. Like for example, in this
22:04case right here, big bullish candlestick
22:06over here. And if you look at the
22:08candlestick after the big bullish
22:10candlestick low right here, you can see
22:11there's a gap just like this and this is
22:13what we call the imbalance. Once again,
22:15not going to dive too deep into this
22:16concept. I already done a video on this.
22:17It's in the liquidity concepts lesson,
22:19right? So, you can go and check that
22:20out, right? But this could be another
22:22place to place a take profit, right? At
22:23this imbalance right here.
22:25So, once again, just don't overthink it.
22:27Basically, you just want to target the
22:28opposing side. If you are entering for a
22:31sell at a supply zone, you target the
22:32next demand or the next swing low or the
22:34prior day low. If you are entering for a
22:38buy at a discount pricing, right? You
22:41want to target the next supply zone or
22:44the next swing high.
22:47As simple as that, right? So, in this
22:48case, if I enter for buy right here
22:50because price maybe mitigate this demand
22:52zone right here and it's discount within
22:54the discount pricing, I'm going to be
22:55targeting the next 15-minute supply,
22:57which is right here. And as you can see,
22:59literally price went there, started
23:01reversing and heading down. So, one
23:03target, one direction, now you actually
23:06have a plan.
23:07The last step, step five, is to define
23:10invalidation,
23:11right? Once again, this is the part that
23:13separate traders who have a plan from
23:15traders who who just cope. Because a
23:17real bias is not just I think it's going
23:20to go up. No. A real bias includes the
23:22line in the sand that says, "If this
23:25happens, then I'm wrong." So, here's the
23:28mindset that I want you to steal. Good
23:30traders think about their next move.
23:32Great traders think about their next
23:34five move. And the consequence of the
23:37consequence of the actions. Right. So,
23:40they are literally just thinking about
23:42what could possibly go wrong. And they
23:44are like literally like just playing out
23:46the different scenarios in their head
23:48before they actually enter for the trade
23:49itself, before they actually confirm the
23:51daily bias. So, your job is very simple.
23:54Just finish this one sentence.
23:57My bias is wrong if X happens.
24:01You can fill up X with whatever you
24:02want. So, give you an example. If my
24:06bias is bullish, then my bias is invalid
24:09if price breaks and hold below my key
24:12level. Not just a wick, but a real break
24:15and acceptance. And in this case, if my
24:18bias is bearish,
24:20then my bias would be invalid if price
24:23came up here
24:24and hold above this key level right
24:27here.
24:28Okay? So, once again, cannot be a
24:30candlestick wick break, it must be a
24:32reclaim and acceptance. So, here's the
24:35discipline rule that will save your
24:36account and save you from making stupid
24:38decisions and make stupid mistakes and
24:40incur unnecessary losses. If my bias is
24:43invalidated, I reset my bias. Okay, so
24:47if price actually go up there, take out
24:48this high right here, boom. I'm
24:51reevaluating what the market is doing
24:52right now. I'm not going to be imposing
24:54my will onto the market. I'm not going
24:56to be revenge trading. I'm not going to
24:58be doubling down. I'm not going to make
24:59back the loss. No. I accept the fact
25:02that I am wrong.
25:03And I reread the market. I reevaluate
25:07the situation.
25:09Once again, if you don't have some form
25:11of rule just like this to invalidate
25:13your bias, to invalidate your trade
25:14idea, then you don't have a bias.
25:17You have hope.
25:18And hope is outsourcing your
25:21responsibility to luck.
25:23And luck is not a strategy, my friend.
25:26So, those are the five steps to actually
25:27develop a daily bias, right? So, let's
25:29just play price forward to see what
25:30price does next. Okay, eventually price
25:32comes down here, right? Come down into
25:34the discount pricing. Okay, once price
25:36comes under discount pricing, we can
25:37expect price to start reversing, right?
25:39But then, we don't want to enter for a
25:41buy until price take out the last higher
25:43low, right? Because right now we are
25:45technically still bearish, right? So, if
25:46you want the price to start shifting
25:47bullish, we need to wait for price to
25:49take out this high right here. And
25:51eventually price take out the high, and
25:52right now we are shifting bullish. So,
25:53right now this is where the internal
25:56structure, the internal order flow, the
25:57lower time frame trend is aligned with
25:59the higher time frame trend. Internal
26:01trend bullish, higher time frame trend
26:02bullish, and now you can trade in
26:03continuation with the higher time frame
26:05structure. As simple as that. All right,
26:08let's quickly go through another
26:09example. This time on Bitcoin chart. As
26:12you can see on the left-hand side, I got
26:14a chart. On the right-hand side, I
26:15actually got a trading plan. Once again,
26:17the cool part about Edge Flow is that
26:19one of the features is called Edge,
26:21which allows you to actually build your
26:23trading plan on there. And you can
26:25actually review your trading plan,
26:26actually like analyze the charts while
26:29having a trading plan right next to you,
26:31right? So, that's that's a cool thing. I
26:32thought that it'd be pretty cool to
26:33actually use my software to actually
26:35showcase this strategy to you. Anyways,
26:38let's dive into it, right? So, Bitcoin
26:40obviously bearish right now. Price is
26:42creating lower highs, lower lows, lower
26:44lower lower low, whatever, right? So, if
26:46I'm looking at it just right there, I
26:47can see the first step is to mark my
26:49higher time frame swing range and my
26:51premium and discount, right? So, swing
26:53high, swing low, okay? This cannot be
26:55swing low yet because price is not make
26:57like a decent pullback. Yeah, I want to
26:58see price make like a significant
26:59pullback. Once price make like a
27:01significant pullback just like this,
27:02boom, swing low forms. Swing high, swing
27:04low, next take out premium discount
27:06tool, premium discount, boom, then then.
27:10And now we know that price has entered
27:11into the premium pricing. This is where
27:13we can start looking for shorts, right?
27:15And the next question I ask myself is,
27:17okay, where's the available liquidity?
27:19Right? Where's the Friday high, the
27:20Friday low, and is there any equal highs
27:23and equal lows? So, what I want to do
27:24now is to go to the daily time frame to
27:26find the most recent daily candle, which
27:29is this one right here. Friday high,
27:31Friday low. So, ideally I want that to
27:33get swept. Go back down to the 4-hour
27:34time frame and ask yourself whether
27:36there's any like equal highs and lows
27:37nearby, right? So, in this particular
27:39case, there is price goes down, push
27:41back, comes down, push back, and it goes
27:43down. So, there's not really like equal
27:45highs and equal lows, but if you guys
27:47watch the liquidity lessons, you will
27:48know that this means that there's
27:50available liquidity sitting above those
27:51highs right there. Okay? So, later on
27:55let's see what price does next, okay?
27:56Later on price came down here. You can
27:58see, it swept the Friday high. Once it
28:00swept Friday high, it started reversing
28:02into like this demand right here, then
28:03started going up. So, if you're a
28:05scalper or intraday trader, you could
28:07potentially look for nice shorts right
28:08here the minute price swept the Friday
28:10high. Okay? But, in this case, that
28:13doesn't really matter, right? Because
28:14what we saw was price going up even
28:16deeper into the premium pricing
28:19to actually sweep the available
28:20liquidity above all of these highs right
28:22here. So, the next step is to ask
28:23yourself whether we are in a
28:24continuation phase or a pullback phase,
28:26right? It's to build the narrative, it's
28:27to build a story. So, obviously we see
28:29that price is obviously in a pullback
28:31phase since price have shifted bullish
28:32in a short term to facilitate the
28:34pullback. So, what we want to do is we
28:36want to continue buying, right? Continue
28:38buying, continue trading this internal
28:40order flow until price comes into, you
28:42know, deeper into the premium pricing,
28:44maybe come all the way up here to this
28:46extreme supply, or even like this next
28:48supply zone right here. Right? So, I
28:51personally would keep on buying buying
28:53buying buying buying until price reach
28:54here. Once price reach here, I'll stop
28:56buying and I'll start to re-evaluate the
28:57situation to start looking for
28:59reversals, right? To see when price is
29:01shifting bearish, and that is where I
29:03want to, you know, trade in that
29:04direction itself. Right? But, let's
29:06continue to play price forward and see
29:07what price does next. Internal structure
29:09continue bullish, right? And what
29:11happens is price came all the way up
29:13there and swept the available liquidity
29:15above the previous swing high. Once
29:18again, not going to dive too deep into
29:20entry and exits in this video. I just
29:21want to show you how to really like find
29:24out your daily bias, right? And you can
29:25kind of see like my thought process
29:27while I'm looking at this move right
29:28here. So, at this point of time, price
29:30swept this swing high. Actually, I just
29:32realized that is actually equal highs
29:33right here. Price went up, pull back,
29:35goes up, pulls back. Equal highs, ladies
29:38and gentlemen, right? So, price went up
29:40there, swept the available liquidity
29:41above the equal highs. Right now, yes,
29:43also came very deep into the premium
29:45pricing, and we are also
29:47potentially done with the pullback
29:49phase, right? Right now, price might get
29:51enough liquidity to cause price to start
29:53heading down next. Right? So, if you do,
29:56right? What you can do is look for extra
29:58confirmation, your market shift, or your
30:00liquidity sweep, whatever. When that
30:02appears, start shorting the market down
30:04because now the market is reversing and
30:05heading bearish. And then, what you want
30:07to do is to pick one target, right?
30:09Place your take profit at like the next
30:11opposing demand zone, or the next swing
30:13low, right? Maybe like somewhere down
30:15here, or even all the way down here. And
30:17then also, what's your invalidation,
30:19right? You need to define that.
30:20So, to me personally, if price actually
30:23go up there and take out this high right
30:25here, the protected high which have
30:26swept liquidity, you know, just does
30:28this,
30:29then I know we are shifting bullish,
30:31right? My bias is no longer bearish. My
30:33bias is wrong if price actually
30:36take goes up there and take out this
30:38116K level right here, right? So, let's
30:41see what happens next.
30:42All right, price continued dumping,
30:43right? So, since price did not went up
30:45there and take out this high right here,
30:47our bias is valid, we are bearish, and
30:49right now we are indeed shifting
30:51bearish. Right now, the lower time frame
30:52is turning bearish, and it's aligned
30:54with the higher time frame as as well.
30:56So, this is where you can start to see
30:58this is potentially the new lower high
30:59that is being formed in this bearish
31:00market structure, and it can potentially
31:02target this next zone right here, right?
31:05And let's watch what price does next.
31:06Price will then continue coming down
31:08here, chop a little bit, come down,
31:10smash our TP right here. We didn't set
31:13TP, but like you get the point, right?
31:14That's how you pretty much develop and
31:17trade your daily bias itself. Very, very
31:19simple, okay? You can see I pretty much
31:21did that in less than 5 minutes. Like I
31:23said, five steps, 5 minutes, one trade
31:26plan, one strategy. Literally as simple
31:29as that. No need to complicate things.
31:31Now, I know you're super excited to go
31:33out there and try this strategy and make
31:34some money, but before you do, I want to
31:37call out the five mistakes that make
31:39people inconsistent
31:41even when they have a strategy just like
31:42this, right? Even when they technically
31:45know what to do.
31:46And once again, I'm saying this from
31:47experience, right? Because over the past
31:48few years, I've coached thousands of
31:50traders. And inside the 1% club, I've
31:53had hundreds of students go on to become
31:55six-figure funded traders. Recently,
31:57there was a student who got 850k in
31:59funding, and right now he's on the way
32:00to scaling to a million dollars, right?
32:02So,
32:03basically, coached a lot of traders, I
32:05have a lot of knowledge and experience,
32:06and to me, what's funny is the ones who
32:08stay stuck usually aren't missing some
32:11secret entry model, right? Because
32:13they're getting the same exact
32:14information as the people who go out
32:16there and win.
32:17But the people who stay stuck, they are
32:18sabotaging themselves with the same few
32:20mistakes every single week, right? They
32:23do the same over and over again,
32:25and they expect different results. They
32:27play stupid games, and they win stupid
32:29prizes, right? So, let me show you the
32:31five most common, biggest mistakes ever.
32:34The first mistake is that they try to
32:36find a daily bias a 5-minute timeframe.
32:38When you start off with the 5-minute
32:40timeframe, you'll realize that there's a
32:42lot of noise, right? There's a lot of
32:43price going up, down, sideways, you
32:45know, a lot of random volatility, and a
32:48lot of like BS, right? So, what happens
32:50is that you end up reacting to every
32:52single move right here,
32:54trying to guess where price is going to
32:55go next in the next 1 second, instead of
32:57planning out your daily bias, right? So,
32:59don't do that. When it comes to your
33:01daily bias, always go from the higher
33:03timeframe first. You only use the lower
33:04timeframe like the 5-minute for entries,
33:07for execution. Mistake number two is
33:11you have a feeling, okay? We all know
33:13that trader where when you ask him, "Yo,
33:15bro, why did you enter for buy?" Then he
33:16say, "Oh, well, I I feel bullish."
33:19Feelings aren't a framework, all right?
33:21Emotions aren't a strategy.
33:23End of the day, real bias requires you
33:26to follow a plan just like this.
33:29Requires you to figure out a target,
33:31requires you to figure out a
33:33invalidation.
33:35If you cannot say your bias in one
33:37sentence, you don't have one, right? So,
33:39for example, for me personally, when I
33:41was looking at this just like this, I
33:43know that, okay, my bias is bearish.
33:45Because right now price has came into
33:48the premium pricing, swept the available
33:49liquidity, and the internal structure is
33:51shifting bearish. That's it, right?
33:53That's it. Mistake number three is
33:55trading mid-range chop, right? When
33:58you're trading in the middle of nowhere
33:59just like this, middle of freaking
34:01Wyoming, right? Not at the extreme zone,
34:03not at the premium pricing, not at the
34:04discount pricing, when price is in the
34:06middle of nowhere, right? When price is
34:08just choppy, going sideways,
34:10once again, you're going to fall victim
34:12to a lot of fake outs, a lot of
34:14indecisiveness in the market, right? And
34:17it's just unprofitable, right? Just
34:19remember that the most profitable trades
34:21are only taken at the extreme, either at
34:23the premium or the discount pricing. If
34:25it's mid-range, if it's consolidating,
34:27if it's sideways, it's either you stay
34:29out of the market completely and wait
34:31for price to come up to the extremes.
34:34Or, if you do want to trade this, reduce
34:36your risk, right? Use like a smaller
34:38position size. Mistake number four is
34:41changing bias after every single
34:43candlestick. Oh, price is shifting
34:45bullish right now? Okay, cool. I was
34:47bearish just now, but I guess not,
34:49right? I'm no longer bearish because
34:50there's this big bullish candlesticks
34:52right here.
34:53That's not how you trade, right?
34:54Remember, your bias only change when
34:57your invalidation is hit. When this rule
35:01appears, then you can tell yourself to
35:03re-evaluate the situation of the market,
35:05to change your bias. Okay, but if you're
35:08switching your bias every single minute,
35:09every single time, because every single
35:11candlestick move, then what happens is
35:13that you're going to be over trading,
35:14you're going to be revenge trading,
35:15you're going to be chasing trades,
35:16you're going to be trading with your
35:17emotions. And when you do that, you're
35:20no longer trading the market, you're
35:22trading your mental well-being. You're
35:24trading your belief about the market.
35:26And the final step is the biggest one.
35:28Is not trusting your bias.
35:32Now, listen.
35:33If you've done your research, you've
35:35done your preparation, you've done your
35:36analysis, you've done the work to
35:38actually develop your bias, why would
35:41you not trust it?
35:42Well,
35:43because you're incompetent.
35:46Someone has to say that, right? Someone
35:48has to say that you ain't
35:50When you have never gathered enough
35:52trades to know if your bias process
35:54actually works, you tend to second-guess
35:56everything.
35:57Remember, you don't build trust in your
36:00system by shouting affirmations in the
36:02mirror. I am good. I am profitable. I am
36:04profitable. I am
36:06I I can develop my bias. No, is you
36:08can't build trust by affirmations or
36:10manifestation or visualization.
36:12You build trust in your system by
36:15gathering so much data that is
36:18unreasonable not to understand your
36:20edge.
36:21Because conviction comes from
36:23confidence.
36:25Confidence comes from competence. and
36:28competence comes from consistency.
36:31Okay, let me repeat that. It's a loop.
36:34Consistency breeds competence,
36:37competence breeds confidence, and
36:39confidence breeds conviction,
36:42which allows you to trust
36:44>> [snorts]
36:44>> in your trading strategy, which allows
36:45you to trust yourself.
36:48So, if you are inconsistent with your
36:50actions, you will never have conviction
36:52in your trading strategy and in
36:53yourself, which also means you will
36:56never have consistent profits.
36:59As simple as that. So, here's my
37:00challenge for you, right? Take this
37:02trade plan right here, and I want you to
37:04commit to something just like this.
37:07Commit to one bias checklist just like
37:10this for the next 30 days.
37:12And when you do that, I want you to
37:14track the outcome of every single trade
37:16that you take after reviewing this trade
37:19plan. Right? Whether your bias was
37:21right, whether your bias was wrong. And
37:23if you was right, why why didn't it work
37:25out? If it was wrong, why didn't it work
37:27out? And after these 30 days, at the end
37:30of these 30 days, review every single
37:32trade outcome.
37:34Trust me, you will get so much
37:36information from these 30 days than your
37:38past few years of trading. Because
37:40remember, the best information about
37:42your trading isn't found in trading
37:44videos, isn't found in trading books,
37:46isn't even found by listening to me. The
37:48best information about your trading is
37:50your trading.
37:53Okay, let me repeat that. The best
37:55information about your trading is your
37:57trading.
37:59If you want to get better at trading,
38:01you have to review your trade.
38:04Because when you do that, you can find
38:05out what works and what didn't works,
38:07and you can do more of what works and
38:09less of what doesn't.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of Market Mechanics Ep 15: How To Find Daily Bias by Brad Goh (The Trading Geek), generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 7,727 words across 1,150 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to choose a caption track available on the video.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, caption language selection, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.