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Market Deep Dive - Will Prices Keep Falling? One Piece TCG — Transcript

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0:00Hello and welcome to One Piece of
0:02Insight. In today's video, I will be
0:04checking in on our market indexes to do
0:06a deep dive on whether or not I think we
0:08are nearing the bottom of the correction
0:10or whether cards and booster boxes still
0:12have further to fall. So, with that, as
0:14always, this is intended to be
0:15interesting and informative, but not
0:17financial advice. Let's jump right in.
0:19So, let's first start by talking about
0:20our indices. So, we had the SP index
0:24falling 3% over the last month, the
0:26Booster Box index falling 4% over the
0:29last month, and promo cards falling 2%
0:32over the last month. Now, if you watched
0:33our video last month, you would know
0:35that this is a significant slowdown in
0:37the decrease in prices. We had much
0:40sharper falls from July to August than
0:42we did from August to September. But we
0:44can see the market is still bleeding uh
0:46across all indices. So, I think on the
0:48one hand, it's kind of negative to see
0:50that the market is still declining, but
0:52on the other hand, seeing such a sharp
0:54slowing in velocity of declines made me
0:56ask the question, does this mean that
0:58we're getting close to the bottom and we
1:00might start to see gains again soon? So,
1:02in order to try to break down this
1:04question, I wanted to have a few
1:06different hypotheses of what I thought a
1:08market that was about to hit the bottom
1:10might look like. So, those hypotheses
1:12are I think blue chips will stabilize
1:15first, right? The reason a market will
1:17stabilize is because at a certain point
1:19collectors will say that price is too
1:21cheap. Now is the time for me to buy it
1:23and they will jump in and that will
1:25create a price floor which will
1:26eventually stop the prices from going
1:28down and hopefully cause prices to go up
1:30again. That is most likely going to
1:32happen with the best cards first, right?
1:34Because those are the cards that the
1:35collectors are keeping an eye on to see
1:37if they hit a price that they really
1:39want to buy at. The next thing that I
1:41think would likely happen if we were
1:42nearing the bottom is we would see
1:44recently hyped cards correcting the
1:46most. So essentially what would be
1:48happening is that the market is
1:49continuing to find pockets where things
1:51have been overvalued and correcting
1:53those things. And we would expect that
1:55things that had were hyped many many
1:57months ago would have finished
1:58correcting and have reached their
2:00natural floor whereas things that got
2:01hyped up much more recently might still
2:04be falling more because they had gained
2:05more over a shorter period of time. And
2:07finally, I think we would expect to see
2:09vintage or in the case of One Piece,
2:10just, you know, the older sets stabilize
2:13before the newer sets. And the reason is
2:15because markets tend to hit a bottom
2:16when collectors step in and say, "Enough
2:19is enough. I'm just willing to buy these
2:20at this price." So, we would expect that
2:22the cards that are disproportionately in
2:25the hands of collectors who are less
2:28willing to sell them would stabilize
2:30first because there's less incentive for
2:32them to sell their cards when they hit a
2:35lower price. So, if you think about like
2:36the timeline of people opening cards,
2:39selling cards, collecting, we would
2:40generally expect vintage cards to have a
2:43higher percentage of their total cards
2:45already in the hands of collectors.
2:47Whereas newer cards, maybe they're
2:48getting opened in packs, maybe they're
2:50being graded, you know, maybe they're
2:51being traded from one person who opened
2:53it and didn't really want it that much.
2:55And so, if we see a sign that people who
2:57are hard collectors who've been in this
2:59for a while are saying, "Eh, it's not
3:01worth it to me to sell at that price."
3:02That is another mechanism that can cause
3:04the floor to stabilize, which is why I
3:06think vintage cards would likely
3:08stabilize before the newer stuff. And
3:10this is actually what we're seeing in
3:11Pokemon right now. Now, there are some
3:13other reasons there, too. Mostly has to
3:14do with population, but I think there's
3:16some evidence to believe that this would
3:17likely happen when we are about to hit
3:18the bottom. Okay, so let's dig into each
3:20of these. So, first we're going to look
3:22at the question of whether blue chip
3:23cards are stabilizing first. So, if we
3:26look at SPs, I decided to break SPS down
3:29into categories of over $800 and under
3:32$800 as a way to assess sort of like
3:34what are the most desirable of the SPS
3:37and see if there's a difference in the
3:38amount of price movement over the last
3:40month. And the SPs that were over $800
3:43have been stable over the last month.
3:45So, this is the type of thing that I
3:46think we would expect to see if we were
3:48nearing the bottom of the market, right?
3:50you know, you have your ebo3 SPS, you
3:52have your OP14 Zoro, you know, your Gum
3:55Gum Giant, your like most expensive SP
3:58cards sort of stabilizing in price,
4:00whereas some of the less desirable cards
4:02that are still very desirable, but less
4:04desirable than the most desirable ones
4:06continue to fall because people have not
4:09stepped in to buy those yet. And so,
4:11what we saw here is that the under $800
4:13cards are actually still down 5% over
4:16the last month. This is exactly what I
4:18would expect to see if we were hitting
4:19the bottom of a market, right? And that
4:20the correction was about to stabilize.
4:22So, let's talk about promo cards and see
4:23if we're seeing the same thing there.
4:25And again, we're seeing a very similar
4:27narrative. Now, major caveat, all these
4:30things have small sample size, right? I
4:32think in particular, the promo card
4:33selection is a relatively small sample
4:35size. These are relatively small
4:36differences, so we don't want to read
4:38into them too much. But I think promo
4:39cards are generally telling the same
4:41story that SPs are telling, which is
4:43that the most desirable promo cards, the
4:46ones that are over $300 in our index are
4:48only down 2%, whereas the ones that are
4:50under $300 are down 4%. You know, again,
4:54the way markets tend to work is that
4:56when you have a huge boom, first the
4:58most expensive cards go up, and then
5:00people look at the less expensive cards
5:01and say, "Well, this seems like a really
5:03good value compared to that other one."
5:05And then they pump that up. But then
5:07when money leaves the market, the first
5:09things that leave are the less desirable
5:10cards, right? And so we are still seeing
5:13more correcting happening on the less
5:15desirable under $300 promo cards than we
5:18are seeing on the $300 and up promo
5:21cards, which again is consistent with
5:23the narrative we would expect to see if
5:24we were nearing a bottom. Now, booster
5:26boxes, on the other hand, are telling a
5:27different story entirely. I looked at
5:29the over $500 set and the under $500 set
5:32and booster boxes over $500 are down 4%
5:35over the last month while booster boxes
5:38under $500 are down 1% over the last
5:40month. Now, this has been mainly driven
5:43by the OP1 booster boxes, both the blue
5:46bottoms and the white bottoms losing a
5:48significant percentage of their total
5:50value over the last several months and
5:52over this month in particular. Um, but I
5:55would say in general we are seeing these
5:57like less desirable vintage boxes that
5:59have less expensive chase cards in them
6:01continuing to fall month after month,
6:04whereas we're seeing sort of more
6:05stabilization and even growth in some of
6:07the later sets that have more desirable
6:09cards in them. So this is sort of the
6:11opposite of what you would expect to see
6:13if we were reaching the bottom of a
6:14market. And so my verdict here is that
6:16this is super mixed, right? You know, on
6:18the card side, I think we are seeing the
6:21most desirable cards holding their value
6:22a little bit better than the less
6:24desirable cards, right? That could be an
6:25indication that we're nearing the
6:27bottom. But then on the other hand,
6:28we're seeing the more expensive booster
6:31boxes, continuing to correct more,
6:34showing that people are still taking
6:36profits on those as opposed to stepping
6:38in and saying enough is enough. This is
6:40cheap enough for me to buy. So our next
6:41hypothesis that I wanted to test was the
6:43idea that recently hyped cards would be
6:46correcting the most, right? So that if
6:48we think about like cards run up, they
6:50hit their peak and then over time people
6:52start to try to rightsize that to figure
6:54out what the card should actually be
6:55worth. Generally speaking, the more time
6:58they've had to do that, you would expect
7:01those prices to be more stable, right?
7:03So, if a car jumped to $500 back in
7:05January and folks had 8 months to try to
7:09figure out what that price was, we would
7:11expect that the price now would be
7:12changing less because there was more
7:14time to figure out what the value of
7:15that should be. Whereas something that
7:17spiked in July where they've had less
7:20time to figure out what that price
7:21should be, we would expect that to be
7:22more volatile, right? Because folks are
7:24still figuring it out. There's still
7:25more room for correction. We saw a more
7:27sizable increase over a shorter period
7:29of time. So, let's see if that's what we
7:31see in the data. So, first looking at
7:33SPS, the way that I tried to measure
7:35this is I looked at when each card hit
7:39their peak and then I bundled them into
7:41the cards that fell over the last month
7:43and the cards that went up over the last
7:45month. And I looked at where their
7:47average peak price was to see if we
7:50could see a difference in terms of how
7:52long a card has been correcting for. And
7:55interestingly, we found the opposite of
7:57what the hypothesis would suggest, which
8:00is that cards that went down over the
8:02last month hit their peak significantly
8:05earlier than the cards that went up over
8:07the last month. So for cards that were
8:09falling on average, they hit their peak
8:13price during the last boom in late
8:15March, which means that they have had 6
8:17months to correct and they are still
8:20falling. whereas the cards that are
8:22going up are the ones that hit their
8:25peak in mid June on average. So this is
8:28really interesting because this is the
8:30opposite of what I was expecting to see
8:31here. And so it raises the question of
8:34why are these cards that hit their peak
8:36so long ago still falling? And why are
8:39cards that hit their peak relatively
8:41recently going up? But before I get into
8:43why I think that might actually be
8:44happening, let's check in on booster
8:46boxes to see if we're seeing the same
8:47trend. So in the world of booster boxes,
8:50we are actually seeing the exact same
8:51thing. So booster boxes that are
8:54currently falling hit their peak on
8:56average in late April, whereas booster
8:58boxes that are currently rising hit
9:00their peak in September. So we are
9:03seeing two different pieces of movement
9:05in the booster box market. We are seeing
9:07boxes that are continuing to rise and
9:09hit their all-time highs. And then we
9:11have a series of boxes that are
9:12continuing to fall and have been falling
9:15for quite a while. Okay. So what's
9:17actually happening here? So my thought
9:19is that this looks like anchoring,
9:22right? This suggests that we are not at
9:23the bottom. This is exactly the opposite
9:26of what you would expect to see if we
9:27are at the bottom. So anchoring is when
9:31a community or a person has an
9:34expectation of what a price of something
9:36should be. So if you think that a price
9:39for something should be $600 and you see
9:41it for $300, you're going to think,
9:43"Wow, what a great deal, right?
9:46But let's say somebody else comes into a
9:48market a year later after that product
9:50has crashed and sees it for $300.
9:53They're not going to think it's a great
9:54deal at $300, right? Because $300 is the
9:58first price they ever saw. So what we
10:00think of as a good deal or a bad deal is
10:03relative to the set price that we have
10:05in our mind of what we think something
10:06is worth. And so what I think is
10:08happening here is that we had a bunch of
10:11people who came into the market, you
10:13know, at the end of 2025, early 2026.
10:16They bid up the prices of these things.
10:18They set an anchor point of what they
10:20thought these things should be worth,
10:22right? So if we're talking about like an
10:24OP1 blue bottom booster box, you know,
10:26their anchor point may have been like
10:28$5,300. So anything under that price,
10:30they were going to buy up and they were
10:31going to support because they considered
10:32it to be a good deal. But here's the
10:35thing, markets are gaining and losing
10:37people all the time. So between, you
10:40know, late 2025, early 2026, and then
10:43summer of 2026, a lot of those people
10:46probably left the market. They stopped
10:48paying attention. They did something
10:49else. And so when people started taking
10:52profits, there weren't as many people
10:54there to look at that and say, "Hey,
10:55this looks like a bargain to me. I
10:57should buy this up." But then we had a
10:59lot of new people that came in when
11:01there was hype in the summer. And so
11:05those folks may have been hyped about a
11:07certain set of cards, but when they came
11:09in and if OPO1 blue bottoms were $4,500
11:12at that point or $4,800, they looked at
11:15it and said, "Okay, well, I guess $4,800
11:17for that box is a fair price, so I'm not
11:20going to buy it unless it becomes a
11:22great deal." Right? So instead of
11:24creating that floor, those new entrance
11:26said, "Yeah, I'm going to wait until
11:28it's a good deal before I buy it." And
11:30so it continues to fall. And so I think
11:32what we're seeing here is that a new set
11:35of people came in or renewed focus from
11:38people who had been out of the market
11:39for a while came in in the summer. They
11:41bought up a certain set of things and
11:43they're not necessarily willing to sell
11:46the things they bought because in their
11:47mind, they're worth what they paid for.
11:49But at the same time, those folks are
11:51also not willing to buy a lot of these
11:54cards or booster boxes that were much
11:56more expensive earlier in the year
11:58because that's not their set point,
12:00right? By the time they entered the
12:02market, those things were already
12:03significantly cheaper. So, they have
12:04much more room to fall. So, what does
12:07this mean in terms of the market? So, I
12:09think number one, it means that we are
12:10likely not at the bottom. Right? If we
12:12are seeing these products continuing to
12:14fall, I don't know what's going to stop
12:17them from falling until the people that
12:18are currently in the market think that
12:20the price has gotten too low. But also
12:23on the other hand, these cards and
12:25booster boxes that have gone up a lot in
12:27the summer, if something happens and
12:29those people leave the market, then
12:31there's opportunity for them to fall as
12:33well. And a new crop of people might
12:35come in and buy up some things, but are
12:36they going to buy up those things
12:38thinking that they're a great deal?
12:40Probably not, right? So, I think this is
12:42an indication that there's going to be
12:43more volatility in the market moving
12:45forward as, you know, we see more people
12:48come into the game and remain settled.
12:50As we've seen people exit to deal with
12:52Pokemon, you know, I think once the
12:54Pokemon 30th anniversary fades, we might
12:57see more of those people coming back and
12:58saying, "Whoa, I sold my blue bottom
13:01when it was $4,800 because I wanted to
13:03take some profits. Now it's $4,000. I'm
13:06going to buy that back because that
13:07seems like a good deal now that I'm done
13:08with all this Pokemon stuff, right?" So,
13:10like I don't think this means that this
13:12is going to go on forever, but I do
13:13think it's an indication that
13:15particularly for the subsets of cards
13:17and booster boxes that have continued to
13:19rise or have fallen much more slowly and
13:22hit their peaks in the summer, there is
13:24more opportunity for those to fall over
13:26the coming months. And also, we have not
13:28yet seen necessarily the bottom um of
13:30these things that have peaked many many
13:32months ago. So, the last hypothesis I
13:34wanted to test was the idea that vintage
13:36stabilizes first, right? So, this is
13:38basically suggesting that the older a
13:40card is, the more time it has had to
13:42land in a genuine collector's
13:45collection. And so, in order for it to
13:47reenter the market, they have to be
13:49willing to sell it, which means that
13:50chances are they're not going to sell it
13:52as a loss because they bought it because
13:53they wanted it, right? And so, that's
13:55something that can help to create floor
13:57and stability so that the market can
13:59then go back up at the end of a
14:01correction. And so what we would expect
14:02to see is that cards that are older and
14:04have had more time to land in the hands
14:06of collectors should be more stable than
14:09the cards that are newer and are still
14:10finding their long-term homes. And so
14:13when we look at SPS, uh, we don't see
14:15this actually. So for SPS, I broke it
14:18down into OP1 to OP9 and then OP10 to
14:22OP16 to see if there was a difference in
14:25how much prices changed over the last
14:27month for these specific cards. And the
14:29answer was that there was near perfect
14:31par between both of them. Right? So the
14:33OP1 to OP9 cards fell 1% and the OP10 to
14:36OP16 cards fell 1%. Which says to me
14:40that like this is probably not a primary
14:43mechanism that is deciding where the
14:45market is going right now. The more
14:47important mechanism is probably what we
14:49just talked about in terms of like new
14:51people coming in and having different
14:53anchoring points for what these cards
14:55should actually be worth, right? You
14:57know, it's really really interesting
14:58because One Piece like hasn't been
15:00around that long and prices went up so
15:02incredibly fast. It's not to say that
15:04those prices weren't justified, but just
15:06that there isn't a long enough track
15:07record to know what these things should
15:09actually cost. So, if you're coming into
15:11the market for the first time, you might
15:13be a little bit hesitant to buy
15:14something that you think is very
15:15expensive because there isn't
15:16necessarily a great track record, right?
15:18So, would I be surprised if after seeing
15:20a massive like overpricing of certain
15:23items that we then see an overcorrection
15:26where things actually fall below what
15:28they should be worth? No. I expect that
15:30is what's going to happen, right? It's
15:31going to take us a little while to
15:32triangulate what these prices should
15:34actually be. Now, before we jump into
15:36the booster boxes, I will say that I did
15:37not include the promo cards in either
15:40this analysis or the previous analysis.
15:42And the reason is I just didn't have
15:43enough data. You know, for the monthly
15:45analysis, I'd only been tracking it for
15:47a few months, so it wasn't nearly as
15:48meaningful. And for the vintage versus
15:51older, uh, most of the promo cards that
15:54I have are more on the vintage side, and
15:56so it was wildly imbalanced. Okay, so
15:58booster boxes. So again, you know, we
16:01would expect the OP1 to OP9 booster
16:03boxes to be more stable than the newer
16:05ones, but that's actually not what we're
16:06seeing. It's the opposite, right? So
16:08again, I think this is an indication
16:10that we are not near the bottom, but I
16:11think this is also showing that this is
16:13not the primary mechanism that's
16:15determining price right now. Now, that
16:17said, there is something really
16:18interesting happening in booster boxes
16:20right now, which is that the booster
16:22boxes that are doing the best are
16:24actually kind of the opposite of what
16:27you would expect. So, as I said,
16:28typically like our most blue chip
16:31prospects tend to do really, really well
16:33during a downturn, whereas like the less
16:36desirable products tend to fall a lot
16:38more. But we're actually seeing the
16:39opposite in booster boxes. You know, the
16:42OP8s, OP10s, OP12s, like those boxes
16:46that have been like languishing in like
16:48the 200 to like $225 range have now hit
16:51a pretty solid floor of like $240,
16:54almost $250.
16:56You know, you see OP14 going up, you see
16:58OP15 going up, OP16 going up. Like all
17:01of those booster boxes are coalescing
17:04around a floor of around $250.
17:07And so what I think is interesting here
17:09is that, you know, again to the point of
17:11anchoring, like the people who are
17:12currently in the market, who haven't
17:14been in the market for a long time,
17:16they're coming in with an expectation
17:18that like new booster boxes are over
17:20$200. So, they're looking at these older
17:24booster boxes that were around $200 and
17:26saying like, "Well, if a new booster box
17:28that I want to buy is going to cost
17:29$200, why wouldn't I just buy this
17:31vintage one instead?" Right? Even if the
17:33card quality is a little bit lower. So,
17:36I think that like the experiences that
17:38these folks are having are creating an
17:40anchoring effect that makes the lower
17:42price booster boxes seem like they
17:44should be at a floor of around between,
17:47you know, 225 to $250,
17:50which I think is really, really
17:51interesting. I also think that another
17:54takeaway from this is that we've seen
17:56OP7 booster boxes now fall below $300,
17:59which is below where I expected that
18:01they were ever going to fall. If you're
18:03looking at the question of like, do I
18:05want an OP08 or like an OP10 booster box
18:08for $250 or do I want OP7 for like $290?
18:13I personally would rather have OP7. I
18:15understand that the print run is
18:16probably double the size of those other
18:18sets, maybe even more, but it's like
18:20such a more desirable set. I think that
18:22that's probably too low, right? So, I
18:24think you have like multiple different
18:25anchoring points happening at the same
18:27time here that sends a signal to people
18:29that both like lower-end booster boxes
18:32should still be $250, but also like OP7
18:35is going to continue to fall all the way
18:37down to that price. Like, that just
18:39doesn't make sense. You know, in my
18:41mind, one of the most reliable ways to
18:43get a good value on something is just to
18:46buy it at MSRP when it comes out and
18:48then watch it rise over time as it
18:50becomes more scarce. Obviously, that
18:52hasn't been possible in One Piece sealed
18:54booster boxes for a very long time
18:56because they've been too expensive. But
18:57like when we see these boxes, you know,
19:00normal boxes hitting their low prices of
19:02like $160, $170, like I think the
19:06expectation now is that those boxes are
19:07eventually going to hit a floor of 250.
19:09And if we look at OP7, you know,
19:11comparing it to the other anniversary
19:13sets, OP13's 450, OP9 620, OPO5 is
19:17like,25, right? Like, do we think it's
19:20going to stay at $290? No. Might it be
19:23cheaper than OP13? Sure. But like, do I
19:26think it's going to be at least $350 a
19:29year from now? Absolutely, I do. So, to
19:31me, of all the boxes, that seems like a
19:33really good deal. Um, but I do think
19:35there is stability that's happening in
19:37the booster box market on sort of the
19:38low end of the market, which is really
19:40interesting to me. Okay, so what's my
19:41verdict on this? Well, I think preop10
19:44just ran too hot and is still
19:45correcting. I think people came into the
19:47market and they were like, "Oop, have to
19:50have it." Bought those prices up
19:51incredibly highly. And then based on how
19:54expensive OP1 was, people started
19:56saying, "Well, OP2 is basically as old.
19:58A OP3 is basically as old. OPO4, you
20:01know, almost as old." Like pretty
20:03similar print run, so we should just buy
20:05all of those. And then those massively
20:07increased in price over a short period
20:08of time. And now they are trying to
20:11figure out what that price actually
20:12should be. Like I think it's clear that
20:14people were overpaying for those for a
20:15while. You know, if you're looking at
20:18the question of would I rather have an
20:19OP7 box for $290 or an OPO3 box for
20:24$500, I think most people would probably
20:26rather have the OP7 box. So, I think
20:28that's part of the challenge these
20:30vintage boxes are going to continue to
20:32have. So, I expect that they will
20:34continue to fall over the near term uh
20:37until they hit, you know, what is a
20:38reasonable bottom. I'm also going to say
20:40something here that I think is probably
20:42pretty controversial and that there's a
20:44pretty good chance that I'm going to be
20:45wrong about, but like if I were to make
20:47a bold prediction, I think there's a
20:4950/50 chance that OPO1, at least the
20:52white bottoms, ends up falling below
20:54OPO5 in price uh and over the years may
20:58actually fall below several other boxes.
21:00I think that as time goes on and as we
21:03have seen these prices correct for the
21:06OP1 booster boxes, like the shine is
21:09sort of off this idea that like the
21:12number one is always going to be the
21:14most desirable. Like I think of the
21:15early sets, OP5 is clearly the most
21:17desirable even though it has a larger
21:19print run. And so like I think that the
21:22white bottoms at least are likely to
21:24fall below OP5 at some point in the
21:27future. Do I think it's going to happen
21:28in like the next few months? No, but
21:31like if we're, you know, looking ahead
21:32three years, I would be not surprised at
21:35all if OP5 was more expensive than OP1.
21:38So, for me, that's not a box that I own.
21:41It's not a box that I want to own. It
21:43still feels overpriced to me personally.
21:45Again, I don't have a lot of data to
21:47back this up, right? So, it could very
21:49easily be wrong. you should definitely
21:50take it with a grain of salt, but this
21:51is just sort of like the gut feeling
21:53I've had looking at the way that these
21:55prices have eroded for OP1 over the last
21:57several months while they've remained
21:58much more stable for OP5, PRBO1, EBO2,
22:02Ebo1, you know, some of these more
22:04desirable other sets. And then the last
22:07thing I want to say here is that the
22:08fact that the vintage sets are
22:11correcting could eventually lead to a
22:14rebalancing of the newer sets, right?
22:17Because the name of this game is trying
22:19to look across all the products and say
22:21like relative to how good this product
22:24is compared to other products, what
22:27should this be priced compared to other
22:29products? Right? So if everything goes
22:31up 200% then people are going to look at
22:33the things that haven't gone up 200% and
22:35say, "Hey, that seems like a really good
22:36deal." If everything falls 50%, then the
22:39things that haven't fallen, people are
22:40going to look at that and say, "Hey,
22:42that hasn't fallen. That seems like it
22:44might be too expensive." And so like
22:46these boxes that have done really really
22:48well, if these boxes that are doing less
22:50well continue to erode significantly,
22:53that could cause people to start looking
22:54at these other booster boxes and asking
22:56if they're overpriced. So I don't know
22:58if that's going to happen, but I do
22:59think it's something to keep in mind. Uh
23:01if these prices continue to erode in the
23:03future, ultimately the market is going
23:05to seek to find a balance across all of
23:07the different products, both in sealed
23:09and singles. If the price of a booster
23:11box goes up, then the singles inside
23:13also have to go up. If the singles
23:14inside go up, then the booster box price
23:16eventually goes up, right? Like finding
23:18balance across all of these products and
23:20across sets is the name of the game in
23:22trying to figure out what prices are.
23:23And so when there's movement in one side
23:25of a market, you have to assume that
23:27that movement can also be contagious to
23:29another part of a market. Okay, so
23:31what's my overall takeaway from this?
23:32Well, the first is the good news. So
23:35far, it seems like the pace of the
23:36correction is slowing, right? People are
23:38not dumping product, which is really,
23:40really good. I'm not expecting there to
23:42be a crash, right? People are making
23:44decisions about what they want to be in
23:46and what they want to pay for certain
23:48things. Obviously, as we've talked about
23:49previously, there are a lot of other
23:51things happening right now. There's the
23:52Pokemon 30th anniversary. There are lots
23:54of new games that are coming out. It's
23:56understandable that some money might get
23:58pulled out of One Piece and be put into
24:00something else. I don't think that's a
24:02problem. I think a lot of it will
24:03eventually come back. Um, but I think
24:05it's important to understand that like I
24:07don't think we are near the bottom yet,
24:09right? there's more opportunity for
24:11prices to continue to erode in a bunch
24:13of different places. And so if you're
24:15deciding what to do in this market, my
24:18advice as always is to figure out like
24:21what you value something at, right? Look
24:23at diverse comps to try to figure out
24:25what a fair price is and then if it
24:27falls below that price, then act on it,
24:29right? It's going to be extremely
24:31difficult for any of us to try to catch
24:33when the bottom of the market could be.
24:35The bottom of the market could be
24:36tomorrow despite all of these signals,
24:38right? because everything is incredibly
24:40complex. And so like rather than trying
24:42to time the market, think about like
24:44what your goals, what your objectives
24:46are, what you really want, what you
24:48really care about. Like those are the
24:49only things you can control. And so as
24:51long as you're doing that, I think
24:52you're going to be happy with the
24:54decisions that you make. But you know,
24:55if you are one of those people who's
24:57looking for like the absolute bottom, to
25:00me, at least right now, the evidence is
25:01saying that we aren't there yet. So
25:03that's all I have for today. I hope you
25:04found this interesting. As always, I'm
25:06really interested to hear what your
25:08thoughts are, where you agree, where you
25:09disagree, you know, how are you
25:11interpreting this data? Are you seeing
25:13different signals? When do you think
25:14that the correction is going to end? And
25:15we're going to start with a hot market.
25:16Again, you know, I love hearing
25:18everybody's feedback. You know, if you
25:20are interested in picking up any cards,
25:21we have our TCG Player affiliate link
25:22and our eBay storefront. Uh, you know,
25:25if you buy through us, we get a small
25:26commission, which helps us out a ton.
25:28So, thank you for that. And with that,
25:29as always, I appreciate your time and I
25:32will see you in the next

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