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Market Deep Dive - What's Down, What's Not, and What's a Buying Opportunity? (One Piece TCG) — Transcript

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0:00Hello and welcome to One Piece of
0:01Insight. In today's video, we're going
0:04to be doing a deep dive into the market
0:06for booster boxes, SPs, promo cards, and
0:11graded cards. It's been about a month
0:12since we've last checked in on where
0:14prices are, so we're going to cover what
0:15has changed and what I think it means
0:17for the markets going forward. So, with
0:20that, as always, this is intended to be
0:22interesting and informative, but not
0:23financial advice. Let's jump right in.
0:25So, let's start by talking about the
0:26indexes for different categories. So, in
0:29previous videos, we've talked about what
0:30tends to happen when we have a market
0:32correction. And then generally, you
0:34know, between promo cards, SPs, and
0:36booster boxes, we tend to see promo
0:38cards fall the most, followed by SPs,
0:40followed by booster boxes. So, let's see
0:42if that's actually what happened. So,
0:44since July, SPs are down 15%. And this
0:47to me feels like a healthy correction
0:49amount. You know, SPs have been up more
0:51than 15% over the last several months,
0:53and so coming down 15% to me feels more
0:56like a natural correction rather than an
0:58indication that something is wrong with
1:00the market or they're less desirable
1:01than we expected. Booster boxes are down
1:04only 6%. Booster boxes have been much
1:06slower to move up than SPs, uh and
1:08they've been much slower to move down.
1:10You know, in general, I think we're
1:11seeing the same thing that we see across
1:12other card games, which is that booster
1:14boxes tend to be the most stable. You
1:16know, their growth isn't quite as
1:17explosive as individual singles, but
1:19they also tend to be safer, uh and they
1:21tend to correct more gently than other
1:23types of cards. And then finally, we
1:25have our promo cards, which are down
1:2727%. Now, this may seem like a lot, but
1:30given that like a lot of these promo
1:32cards increased massively over the last,
1:35you know, 3 to 6 months, I do think that
1:37this is pretty healthy. I think for a
1:39while we went through a process where
1:41everyone was trying to like pick what
1:44the next big thing was going to be. And
1:46like a lot of those things ended up
1:47being wrong, right? We're not seeing
1:49massive corrections across the board for
1:51every type of promo card, but
1:52particularly the ones that doubled or
1:54tripled in price over a short period of
1:55time, yeah, we're seeing major
1:57corrections there. We're going to do a
1:58deep dive into all of these, but I
2:00wanted to start by covering the basics
2:02just to see where we are. You know, in
2:04general, I would say that the market
2:05right now is in a pretty healthy place.
2:07I'm happy to see this correction. I
2:09think the fact that we're seeing a
2:10little bit of a correction even though
2:12we have a popular set in OP17 out right
2:14now is just showing that there's a
2:16little bit of market fatigue, right?
2:17Bandai has just been like full gas,
2:20non-stop. Every set since like OP12 has
2:23been incredible. Like the promo cards
2:26that are coming out have been
2:27incredible, right? Like, you know, I
2:29think we sort of assumed that there were
2:31going to be natural market ups and downs
2:33based on quality of sets like there are
2:34in Pokémon, but like if everything
2:37Bandai puts out is a banger, like
2:38they're going to need to find time for
2:39these corrections. So, you know, when we
2:41did our 6-month market prediction, we
2:43actually anticipated that there would be
2:45a slight pullback in advance of OP17 as
2:48people were freeing up cash to be able
2:49to buy stuff from OP17. So, I think
2:52that's basically what we're seeing here,
2:53and to me this all feels extremely
2:55healthy. But let's dig into the
2:56specifics. So, what I wanted to look at
2:58this month was when each individual card
3:00and booster box hit their peak versus
3:03where they are now and how much price
3:05change has occurred since that peak.
3:07Now, major caveat, our data only goes
3:08back to February, right? And I'm
3:10checking in on these things like once
3:11every couple weeks rather than every
3:12single day. So, this isn't likely to be
3:15the exact peak for this product, but it
3:16is the peak that we have tracked over
3:19this period of time. Okay, so let's
3:20start by talking about booster boxes.
3:22So, to me, there's a few different
3:24stories happening here. So, number one,
3:26we got to talk about OP01. So, OP01 blue
3:29bottoms and white bottoms hit their peak
3:31in May and March respectively. Now,
3:33these were some of the earliest movers,
3:35right? These saw massive booms during
3:37the first run-up last year. You know,
3:39people considered them to be
3:40underpriced. They increased in value
3:43multiple X,
3:45and then they sort of went flat for a
3:46long time, right? We have now seen the
3:49blue bottoms fall approximately $1,500
3:51from their peak in May, and the white
3:53bottoms have fallen $550 from their peak
3:56in March. You know, these are obviously
3:58substantial sums of money. I think part
4:00of what we're seeing here is that folks
4:03who got into this because they hoped it
4:06would be a rapidly appreciating asset
4:09have now said, "Eh, this feels pretty
4:11slow and pretty stable, and that's not
4:13what I'm looking for. So, I'm going to
4:15take some of this money and I'm going to
4:16buy other things that appear to be more
4:19rapidly growing, right? So, I actually
4:22even though OP-01 is not my favorite, I
4:24don't view this as an overly negative
4:25indicator for the future of these boxes,
4:27right? I think the natural course of
4:29things is that booster boxes go up in
4:31price slowly over time as more of them
4:34get opened, as they become more scarce,
4:37you know, as they become older.
4:39We had a lot of rapid appreciation over
4:41a short period of time. So, in order to
4:43actually get to a point of healthy
4:45stability, these boxes either needed to
4:47go down or they needed to trade sideways
4:49for a long time. We saw them trade
4:51sideways for a long time, and that made
4:52people think, "Eh, maybe this isn't what
4:54I want to be in." And that's caused them
4:56to go down. So, I'll be honest, I'm not
4:58sure whether I think this is a buying
5:00opportunity because,
5:02you know, we don't really have a great
5:03sense of like what the price of these
5:06should be given that these are the most
5:07expensive in their category, but I think
5:09if you are genuinely, you know,
5:11interested in keeping this in your
5:13collection for a very long time, like I
5:15think we could look back and say that
5:16this was a good opportunity to buy the
5:18dip.
5:19You know, I think another thing that's
5:21happening here across the board, if you
5:22look at the other boxes that haven't
5:24performed well since their peaks, you
5:26know, you have OP-03 down $234 from
5:29February, you have OP-02 down $130 from
5:32June. You know, a lot of these vintage,
5:36we'll call them vintage, they're not
5:37really vintage, but a lot of these older
5:38One Piece sets,
5:40I think we assumed or some people at
5:43least assumed that they were going to go
5:45up in price, and they were going to hold
5:47their price better than the newer sets
5:49because they were older and they had
5:51smaller print runs. And so, I think they
5:53bought them up to a certain level. And I
5:55think there's a few problems with that
5:57argument. Number one, you know, based on
5:59my estimates at least, print runs didn't
6:01significantly increase until we got to
6:03around OP011 uh with the exception of
6:05the anniversary sets, which have always
6:07had much bigger print runs, and the EB
6:09sets, which have always had much smaller
6:10print runs at least until EB03.
6:13So, they're not as scarce compared to
6:15like the more modern sets as like people
6:17might generally assume, but also like
6:19the card quality in general is just like
6:21a lot lower. And so, the sets that have
6:24done well have been the sets that in
6:26general have better card quality across
6:28the board, right? So, we've seen OP05 be
6:31like the most stable of the expensive
6:33boxes. Same thing with PRB01. You know,
6:35EB02 has done really, really well uh
6:38over that period of time, is down just a
6:39tiny bit cuz it has really good card
6:41quality. OP09 hit its peak in August.
6:45OP011 also hit its peak in August,
6:47right? These are boxes with huge chase
6:49cards in them. PRB02 doesn't have the
6:51huge chase. Uh you know, the Sanji manga
6:53is pretty good, but obviously not the
6:55same quality chase as OP09 or OP011, but
6:58it has a lot of density, right? It's a
7:00high-quality set. You know, OP06 as well
7:02has one of the higher expected values uh
7:05of the earlier sets. So, I think what
7:07we're seeing is that like there was a
7:09theory that the boxes that were going to
7:11be most expensive uh were the first
7:14boxes, and I think in reality we're
7:15seeing collectors preferring boxes that
7:17have higher-end chase cards. Now, is
7:20that because people are opening the
7:21boxes and that's creating more scarcity?
7:23Yeah, that's one possible explanation.
7:25But another possible explanation is that
7:27people now have a theory that these are
7:29the boxes that are going to be more
7:30popular, right? And that theory could
7:33eventually end up being wrong. So, it's
7:35really difficult to say. I think in
7:37general, like when we think about
7:40booster boxes, we should assume that the
7:41same thing is going to happen with them
7:43that has historically happened, right?
7:45Rather than trying to time the market,
7:47you know, buy good quality booster boxes
7:49and as they get older, they generally
7:52will appreciate because they will become
7:53more scarce. So, if you're looking to
7:55add any of these boxes to your
7:56collection that have fallen a lot over
7:58the short term, I would say if your goal
8:00is to keep it in your collection for a
8:01very long time, yeah, it could be a good
8:03opportunity to buy a dip. Um but if your
8:06goal is to just, you know, rapidly
8:08increase and make money on a short term
8:10basis, like I don't think this is the
8:12place to be. And honestly, I don't
8:14advise that as a strategy in general. I
8:16think that is a recipe for losing money
8:18long term in my opinion. The other major
8:20trend in booster boxes I want to talk
8:21about that actually ties into what we
8:23were just talking about is that like
8:25the newer sets and the less desirable
8:28sets, we've seen them slowly climbing.
8:30So, OP14, OP12, OP08 and OP10, you know,
8:35in particular 8, 10, and 12 are
8:36considered like three of the least
8:38desirable sets. They all hit their
8:40all-time high in August. And I think
8:42what's happening here is like they're
8:43sets that have not had a lot of hype,
8:45but just due to the natural trickle of
8:47supply and demand, of demand drying up
8:49because people are opening the boxes or
8:51they're moving them into their long-term
8:53collections, prices have gone up
8:55naturally. This is how markets are
8:57supposed to work for booster boxes. And
8:59so, I think continuing to see like slow
9:01continuous growth as boxes become older
9:04and more scarce, I think is really,
9:06really good. You know, OP14 as well, you
9:08know, I think we're finally seeing
9:09supply dry up for that, so we're seeing
9:11it move up. For OP15 and OP16, I think
9:14we're going to see the same thing
9:15eventually happen that we've seen for
9:17OP14. I think that's kind of
9:18counterbalanced by the fact that like,
9:20you know, playable cards become less
9:22expensive when there's a new meta, so
9:23the value of the contents of the box go
9:26down, so you're going to see a decrease
9:27in price even though supply is a little
9:29bit lower. But eventually collectors
9:30will drink up that supply and we'll see
9:32prices slowly start to increase again.
9:33So, let's talk about SPs. And I think
9:35SPs have been really, really interesting
9:37cuz while we have seen roughly that SPs
9:40were up,
9:41uh, you know, a decent amount over the
9:42last few months and then have fallen 15%
9:45over the last month, it's not been
9:47evenly distributed at all. The gains
9:49have not been evenly distributed and the
9:51losses have not been evenly distributed.
9:53So, you'll notice here
9:54>> [laughter]
9:54>> that there is only one SP that we're
9:57going to talk about that hit its
9:58all-time high in August. And that is the
10:01OP-04 Boa. And this
10:04is kind of a surprise. So, I'm trying to
10:06figure out what's going on here because
10:07the OP-04 Boa, when like all the other
10:10cards were booming, was just sort of
10:12trading sideways and actually going down
10:15a little bit, uh, over the 6-month
10:16period. And then suddenly, in like July
10:19and August, it started selling for much
10:22more.
10:23And so, like, it could be an anomaly,
10:26but I have thought for a long time that
10:28this is one of the most iconic cards,
10:31certainly one of the most iconic SPs.
10:32And I think if you're looking at the
10:34older stuff where like, in general, the
10:36card quality is lower, this is like one
10:38of the best cards from the first four
10:41sets. In my opinion, the best three
10:42cards in the first four sets are this,
10:45the Luffy leader from OP-01, and then
10:48the Shanks manga from OP-01.
10:50You know, the Ace manga you could argue
10:52maybe is on par with this. I think
10:54frankly that this is a more desirable
10:56card even if there's more supply of this
10:58than the Ace manga. I don't think too
10:59many people are going to argue with me
11:01about the Sogeking or the Sabo manga
11:03being more desirable than this. You
11:05know, there were no SPs in OP-01 to
11:07OP-02 and people didn't really like the
11:09OP-03 SPs, so like, you know, I think
11:11that if you're looking for something
11:13that's a little bit older and a little
11:14bit more settled, like, this makes a lot
11:16of sense to me. This is a card that's
11:18going to go in people's collections and
11:20it's going to stay there because it's
11:22really, really desirable. So, I think
11:23what we're seeing happening with this
11:25Boa could be very similar to what we
11:27were seeing happening with some of the
11:29booster boxes, right? Where we're just
11:30seeing the supply dry up, and that's
11:32naturally pushing prices up. It's not
11:34really speculation-based. It's like
11:35genuinely supply versus demand. You
11:37know, this is the card that I've always
11:39liked, so I'm inherently biased in
11:41thinking that this is like a good
11:42indication for a long-term growth for
11:43this card as opposed to it just being
11:45another random spike.
11:46But that's where I'm at. You know, uh
11:49the EBSPs
11:51are interesting. You know, this is a
11:53situation where I think that people were
11:54like trying to figure out the maximum
11:57value, and the market finally pushed
11:59back. Obviously, there's a lot of demand
12:00for these. They're relatively scarce
12:02compared to a lot of SPs. Um but for
12:05them to be so much more expensive than
12:07the other popular SPs, I think it's
12:09always been a little bit of a surprise
12:10to me. So, I'm not surprised to see a
12:12fairly significant pullback here.
12:14The other interesting thing that I
12:15wanted to point out here, as I was just
12:17talking about with the Boa, is that
12:20other than the Boa and the Nami from
12:22OP05, all of these cards are from OP09
12:26or later, right? You have EB03, OP14,
12:29OP09, you know, PRB02,
12:33uh OP13. So, I think in general, like
12:36there's an agreement that the best
12:39quality SPs have been coming in the
12:40later sets. So, I think this is a bit of
12:43a challenge, right? Because on the one
12:44hand, you have the highest quality cards
12:46being in the modern sets, but on the
12:49other hand, you also have the modern
12:50sets being a little more volatile
12:51because they're a little higher
12:52population. They haven't had as much
12:54time to actually like right-size their
12:56prices. So, you know, I do think that
12:59these make sense as like the most
13:00desirable SPs uh that we've gotten.
13:03Also, I think, you know, once I add OP17
13:05in here, we're going to have some of
13:06those on this list as well. Um but I do
13:08think it makes sense that these would be
13:10more volatile because they're coming
13:11from the newer sets. And that's part of
13:13the reason why I think maybe the Boa
13:14here is standing out a little bit as one
13:16of only two
13:18uh older cards that are actually on this
13:20list. You know, the OP05 Nami is down
13:23from its all-time high in February, but
13:25it's not down that much. Uh so again,
13:27you know, feels like maybe it's a little
13:29bit more of a stable card
13:31uh than some of these others. The other
13:32thing I would say here, too, is that
13:33we've also seen the more blue-chip SPs
13:36holding their value better, you know,
13:38like the Zoro, its peak was back in
13:40March, but it's only down $53 since
13:43March. So, like, even though that was a
13:45card that went up around 33% in a
13:47relatively short period of time, it
13:49hasn't come down that much because there
13:50just seems to be a ton of demand for
13:52that card, right? As opposed to the Ace
13:54Wanted poster, which is a card that I've
13:56always been skeptical that there's like
13:57a ton of true demand for,
13:59uh which has lost, you know, almost half
14:02its value since February. Um so, again,
14:05I think if you're trying to figure out
14:07whether or not something is actually a
14:08good buying opportunity to add to your
14:10collection,
14:11um
14:12asking the question of whether or not
14:14this is like a really blue-chip iconic
14:16SP
14:17uh versus like whether this is something
14:19that people speculate
14:21that they think people are going to want
14:23in the future is like the important
14:25distinction to try to understand here.
14:27All right, so, let's talk about promo
14:29cards. And the first thing you'll notice
14:30here is that there are no promo cards
14:32that hit their all-time high in August.
14:35This is probably not a shock because we
14:36saw promo cards absolutely boom over the
14:39summer. Another thing you might notice
14:40here, so, to take all of this with a big
14:42grain of salt, I only started tracking
14:44this in June, so, I don't have nearly as
14:46much data, so, you know,
14:48everything here is going to have hit
14:50their peak in either June or July. Um
14:52but there's a few things that uh really
14:56stand out here to me. So, the first is
14:57the 25th Anniversary set, which was the
14:59most expensive of the promo cards that
15:01we were tracking. Now, again, I'm
15:04biased. This is a set that I have never
15:06particularly liked that to me has always
15:08had the hallmarks of a pump and dump,
15:10and I think the fact that we've seen it
15:12lose just about half its value
15:15uh over a 2-month period
15:17reinforces my pre-existing assumption.
15:19It's really, really difficult to try to
15:22tease out what's genuine demand versus
15:25what's speculator demand. But I think
15:27there's a couple ways to do it. I think
15:29one is to
15:31when you hear people describe cards,
15:33like do they talk about it like this is
15:36the best art I've ever seen? Like I just
15:38absolutely love this card. I'm obsessed
15:41with it, right? That's how people talk
15:42about the Zoro. That's how people talk
15:44about the Boa Hancock. When I hear
15:46people talk about the 25th anniversary,
15:48people are like, "Oh, it's the first."
15:51Or they're kind of like mangas or
15:54they're like proto mangas, right? You
15:56know, people not speaking for themselves
15:58but putting words in the mouth of
16:00whoever they think is going to buy that
16:02from them at a higher price in the
16:04future. So that's one way to look at it.
16:06Another way to look at it is that when
16:08we do have these corrections, like
16:10things that have fallen a ton
16:14may be good examples of areas where the
16:16price is driven a lot by hype as opposed
16:18to by genuine connection, genuine
16:21desire.
16:23You know, like the blue bottoms, right?
16:25Having fallen $1,500. I'm not saying
16:27that like real authentic collectors
16:29don't want to have an OP01 box because
16:31it was the start of something amazing in
16:33their collection. Like absolutely they
16:34do, but if you're asking whether it
16:36should be like $5,500
16:39or $3,000,
16:41like some of that has to be bought up
16:43because people think they're going to
16:44sell it to somebody else in the future,
16:45right? And so like that's what I've
16:47always been a little bit skeptical about
16:49about the 25th anniversary.
16:51Now on the other hand, one that I was
16:53wrong about was the OP Film Red. I
16:56personally felt that this was a much
16:58better value, that you know, of course
17:01the art was subjective, but you were
17:02paying like a third of the price of the
17:0425th anniversary. That one has still
17:06fallen quite a bit, right? You know, it
17:08was $316 in June and down to $205. To
17:12me, because I like the set, it feels
17:14like a buying opportunity. But I also
17:15acknowledge that there could have been,
17:17you know, a pump and dump there as well.
17:19So, you know,
17:21obviously we're all blinded by our
17:22aesthetic preferences, right? But in
17:24general, I think if you're trying to
17:26stay safe out there, anytime you see
17:27something increase massively, just wait
17:30for it to come back down. Don't be
17:31afraid to miss out on something because
17:33there is always going to be something
17:35amazing for you to spend your money on.
17:38Let's talk about some cards that have
17:39actually been relatively stable over the
17:41last 2 months. So, you know, you have
17:42the OP Day Dallas card which hit its
17:44peak around $700 in June and it's only
17:46come down to $670.
17:48Now,
17:49before the promo cards went crazy, I
17:52think this was still like a $400 to $500
17:53card, right? So, it didn't go up as much
17:55as some of the others. Um, but I think
17:57the fact that it's only lost $30 to me
17:59says that like maybe there is more
18:00genuine demand
18:01um for this card. You know, I understand
18:03it's a very desirable card. It's one of
18:05those cards that maybe people put it in
18:06their collection uh and they're not
18:08letting go of it. You know, same thing
18:09with the second anniversary Luffy. So,
18:11this one's interesting to me because
18:12there was a lot of hype for this, right?
18:14I know I was talking about it, lots of
18:15other people were talking about it. It's
18:17a great card. It hit its peak at around
18:19$561 in June uh and it has fallen $71 to
18:24$490. So, obviously like that is a
18:27significant decline, but it's less than
18:28most of the other promo cards. And so, I
18:30do think again this is an example of a
18:32card that like probably had a little bit
18:35more demand because of the hype that
18:37people were putting around it. But like
18:38at the end of the day, most people don't
18:40really want to sell it because it is a
18:42really awesome card. So, this is another
18:43one of the cards on this list that I
18:45think long-term has some decent
18:47potential. A couple other cards I like
18:49on this list, the first anniversary
18:51collection. I'm not surprised that the
18:52first anniversary collection has come
18:54down a little bit because obviously it
18:56just like exploded over a short period
18:58of time and had a ton of hype. So, now
19:00that the hype has come down, some people
19:02are going to take profits. But I still
19:04think this is such a desirable set and I
19:05think the fact that the most popular
19:07Straw Hats are going for way more than
19:10the Robin at only $390, this still feels
19:13like a good value to me. Again, I'm
19:15biased both because I have it and also
19:18because it's like some of my favorite
19:19artwork in the game.
19:21Um
19:22but that's genuinely what I think is
19:24going to happen. Another card too that
19:25we've talked about a lot is the Santa
19:26Chopper. I think this is a super
19:28desirable card. Trying to figure out
19:30what it should cost is really, really
19:31difficult. I've come to terms with the
19:33fact that this is going to be an
19:34expensive card. I did think that like,
19:36you know, $250, $275 was too much. But
19:40now that it's fallen $155, I actually do
19:43think this is a pretty decent buying
19:44opportunity. Like, does that mean it's
19:46not going to fall further? It does not.
19:48But if I'm looking at it from the
19:49perspective of do I think it's more
19:51likely to be more than this, uh you
19:53know, 6 months or a year from now or
19:54less than this? I think it's more likely
19:56to be more than this. I think especially
19:58going into the holiday season, it's
20:00another card that's going to see some
20:01hype again.
20:02And so I actually do think that this is
20:04a really good buying opportunity for
20:06this card if you really want it in your
20:07collection for only $155.
20:10You know, some of these other cards that
20:11are not like wild standouts to me, like
20:14that have lost a lot, I'm not really
20:15shocked and I could see them falling
20:17further. You know, protein Luffy as he's
20:20referred, uh you know, the Bandai Card
20:22Fest one with all the meat on it, was
20:24$300 in June. It's lost half of its
20:26value. People forget that this was like
20:28a $5 promo card like a year and a half
20:30ago. Um this one is one that I sold uh
20:34at its peak because it just didn't
20:36really appeal that much to me and felt
20:38really overhyped. I don't know that I
20:39necessarily think that this is a buying
20:41opportunity, personally. Another one is
20:43the Gen Con Luffy, right? I think
20:45there's a decent number of these out
20:46there, but more importantly, there's
20:47like several different versions of this
20:49card with the same art. So like, even if
20:51you really like the art, there's like a
20:52lot of affordable ways to get it. And so
20:54I'm not surprised that this has lost
20:56quite a bit of value as well. So now
20:57that we've talked about the raw cards
20:59and the sealed product, I'm getting a
21:01lot of questions about slabs and what's
21:03happening in the slab market. Now, I I
21:05actually have the data to be able to
21:06tell you how much like um index for this
21:08lab market has fallen, but it's clear
21:10that slabs have fallen a ton. They have
21:12taken probably the biggest hit in the
21:14recent correction.
21:16Uh and so I've been trying to think
21:18about what the explanation is for that
21:20and I feel like I've come to an answer
21:21that I feel reasonably confident about.
21:23So, the first video I ever posted was me
21:26arguing that people are overpaying for
21:27PSA slabs based on how difficult it is
21:30to earn a PSA 10 for One Piece promo
21:32cards. And I created this chart that
21:35basically says how much of a multiple
21:36you should pay for each grade based on
21:39how much it would cost you to send in
21:41the card to actually get that grade back
21:43yourself. So, for starters, the reason
21:45why PSA multiples are higher than tag
21:4810s and CGC 10s is really because PSA is
21:51more expensive to grade with, not
21:52because it's any harder to get a grade
21:54from. The BGS 10 black label is the
21:56hardest to get, less than a PSA 9 seems
21:58to be the easiest to get and everything
22:00is relative in between. So, the reason
22:03I'm talking about this is because I want
22:05to talk about what I think is happening
22:06in the slab market. And so, we're going
22:09to look at a couple different examples.
22:11I think the graded cards are now
22:13returning to their benchmark ratios
22:16against the raw price of cards. So, I
22:19think that we have seen graded cards get
22:21overextended relative to their raw
22:24prices
22:25uh during the hype, particularly for
22:27really, really hyped cards and I'll show
22:29you what I mean. So, to do this, I I
22:31wanted to pick a card that I both am on
22:33the record not liking and also to pick a
22:35card that I'm on the record really
22:37liking to show that this isn't just like
22:39me cherry-picking like cards that I
22:41don't like,
22:42>> [laughter]
22:42>> right? Um so, first I wanted to talk
22:44about the treasure rare Luffy from OP08,
22:46which I am on the record for saying that
22:47I don't like and I thought was
22:49overvalued. So, in June, you know, we
22:51saw the PSA 10 of this card selling for
22:54$2,175,
22:56while the raw price was around $392.
23:00That is a 5.6 times multiple, right? We
23:03have an 83% gem rate here. So, people
23:05were paying almost six times as much as
23:08the raw card to get it in a PSA 10,
23:10despite the fact that, you know, eight
23:12times out of 10 when they submit it,
23:13it's going to come back a PSA 10, right?
23:16Our ratio suggests that you should be
23:17paying between a 1.5 and a 2.5 x
23:20multiple for a PSA 10 of any card with
23:23this type of gem rate.
23:25So, then in August, we have now seen the
23:27treasure rare Luffy fall to $660 in a
23:30PSA 10 and $220 raw. Now, obviously,
23:34like the raw card is down,
23:37uh, you know, almost 50% over that
23:39period of time, but the slab has fallen
23:42even more, and now we see a ratio of 3x
23:45as opposed to 5.6x, right? So, I think
23:48we saw a like a lot of pumping of the
23:51PSA 10 versions of this card, and now
23:53that it's cooled, we both seen the value
23:55of the card go down, but more
23:56significantly, we've seen the PSA
23:59version sort of return to the benchmark
24:02of what we think it should cost. To me,
24:043x for this is still quite high. I would
24:07still be in the 1.5 to 2.5 range. All of
24:11that said, though, I think this is much
24:12closer to what people should be paying
24:14for a PSA graded card than the 5.6x that
24:17they were paying back in June. Now,
24:19moving on to an example of a card that I
24:20absolutely love is the first anniversary
24:22Luffy, right? So, this is another card
24:24that was super, super hyped. In June, it
24:26was selling in a PSA 10 for $7,000,
24:30while its raw price at the same time was
24:31$1,394.
24:34So, this was a 5x multiple,
24:36uh, which is significantly more than we
24:37typically would recommend somebody
24:40spending on a PSA card. Now, this one is
24:42a little bit trickier because the
24:44treasure rare had an 83% gem rate, which
24:46is like basically standard for a One
24:48Piece card at PSA.
24:50This one, though, has a 55% gem rate,
24:52which is
24:53absolutely atrocious by the standard of
24:55One Piece cards. Like this is one of the
24:56hardest cards to grade that One Piece
24:59has ever printed. I have no idea why,
25:01but but that's consistently what the
25:02data shows. I think it has to do with
25:04the centering. The centering on these
25:05are absolutely atrocious.
25:07So,
25:08as a ratio, these should be more
25:10expensive than other One Piece cards
25:13relative to their raw cost. But we were
25:15still seeing a 5x multiple back in June.
25:17And even though the raw card has now
25:20only come down like $294 to $1,100,
25:24which is actually not that much of a
25:25correction, we've seen the PSA 10 fall
25:30to below half its value. And so now the
25:33ratio here is 3.1x, which given the low
25:36gem rate for this, I actually think is
25:37totally fair. Um and so like this is
25:40again an example to me of like these
25:43cards returning to like what their
25:46benchmark should be for a graded card
25:49versus a raw card. So, I think at, you
25:52know, $3,400,
25:54if you do like this card, like I think
25:57we might look back and say that this was
25:58a buying opportunity. But either way, I
26:00think both of these cards are telling a
26:01very similar story, right? where like
26:03yes, the raw card has gone down because
26:06the card was clearly over hyped for its
26:08period of time, but more significantly,
26:10we have seen the graded cards decrease
26:13and return to what would be a more
26:15normal multiple based on the raw price.
26:18So, what are my takeaways here? Number
26:19one, big increases almost always
26:20correct, right? So, anything that
26:22increases over a short period of time,
26:24like might it be picking up on a valid
26:26signal that something is undervalued?
26:28Absolutely, it might. But like chances
26:30are it's going to run higher than it
26:32should. And so like if you're buying at
26:34the top of that, there's always going to
26:35be some correction. So, anytime
26:37something goes up a lot, you got to
26:38expect it to pull back. You know, price
26:41corrections represent maturity. So, like
26:42all of this is really, really good,
26:44right? You don't want to live in a cycle
26:47of boom and bust, right? That means that
26:49it is primarily speculative as opposed
26:52to primarily collector based. And the
26:54way that these, you know, maintain
26:56stability over the long term is being
26:58primarily collector based. You know,
27:00times like this tend to show us
27:01fundamentals, right? So, this is a good
27:03time to look at the data and ask what
27:05has fallen a lot and what has fallen a
27:07little to try to understand like what is
27:09genuine demand versus what is more
27:11speculative demand. I also think that
27:13like one of the adages around sealed
27:15product is that sealed product that's 3
27:16to 12 months old tends to be the lowest
27:19risk, right? Because it's sort of the
27:20intersection of, you know, most of the
27:22supply has been consumed. Um
27:26but like it hasn't really registered as
27:28being scarce yet, right? If you're
27:30buying an older box that people already
27:32know is scarce or already know is
27:34desirable, you're going to pay a premium
27:36for it. Like if you're buying a
27:37relatively new box, you're probably
27:39going to be paying the least that it's
27:41ever going to cost somewhere in like the
27:433 to 12-month range from its release.
27:46So, to me if you are looking to add
27:48sealed to your collection, like that's
27:50that's typically what I try to target.
27:52And then finally, I've said this before,
27:54you know, we don't want to overpay for
27:55OP17, but also based on what I'm seeing
27:58from the prices, the bottom could come
27:59sooner than we expect. You know,
28:02obviously I did my predictions for OP17.
28:03I expected them to be pretty wrong.
28:06Particularly on the hockey SPs, I am
28:09very surprised at how low they've
28:12fallen. You know, the Zoro at one point
28:15yesterday briefly fell
28:17uh below $400, which to me was like
28:19absolutely shocking. Um so, I'm going to
28:23be showing you all my haul from
28:24Collect-A-Con next week, which does
28:26include uh quite a few of the hockey SPs
28:30uh because I found them to be a
28:32compelling value at this price.
28:34So,
28:35all of that is to say, like yes, we want
28:38to be careful for OP17, but like if
28:41everybody is assuming the prices are
28:43going to keep going down over time, that
28:45can actually create a buying
28:46opportunity, which is something that we
28:48also saw for OP16. So, you know, I think
28:50it's important to have your benchmarks
28:52of what you think something is worth and
28:54what you're comfortable paying with it,
28:56and then be prepared to act on it,
28:57right? I created that video to set
28:59benchmarks for myself, and then when
29:01things fell below that,
29:03I was willing to make the jump and buy
29:04it because that's what I felt
29:05comfortable with based on the comps. So,
29:07does that mean I'm going to be right? It
29:09doesn't, but that means I can live with
29:11the decisions that I've made because to
29:12me it was based on something that I feel
29:15reasonably confident in. So, that's all
29:17I have for today. I hope you found this
29:18helpful. As I said, I think this is all
29:20really, really healthy for the market.
29:22So, I'm excited to see what happens in
29:23the future. I hope you all got all the
29:25pulls you wanted out of OP17. I know we
29:27didn't, but we still had a great time at
29:28our pre-releases.
29:30Uh you know, if you're interested in
29:31picking up any cards, we have our TCG
29:33Player affiliate link. We also have our
29:34eBay storefront. You know, if you have
29:36any thoughts on the video, please hit us
29:38up in the comments. I am always happy to
29:40chat. You know, give the video a like if
29:41you found it helpful. Subscribe if you
29:43haven't already. And with that, as
29:45always, I appreciate your time, and I
29:47will see you in the next one.

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