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Manga Population and Value Analysis (PSA 10 vs Raw) - Part 1 (One Piece TCG) — Transcript

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0:00Hello and welcome to One Piece of
0:02Insight. In today's video, I will be
0:04talking about the population and prices
0:06of mangas to see where we can find some
0:09value. This will be the first episode in
0:12a two-part series where I look at all of
0:14the mangas across all of the sets,
0:16compare them to SPS, and try to get a
0:18sense of whether or not they're
0:19overpriced, underpriced, or fairly
0:21priced. Now, as people who watch this
0:23channel may know, I don't personally
0:24collect mangas. I also don't personally
0:26collect PSA 10s, but it isn't possible
0:29really, I think, to talk well about
0:30mangas without also talking about PSA
0:3210s. So, we're going to be doing that as
0:34well. With that, as always, this is
0:36intended to be interesting and
0:38informative, but not financial advice.
0:40Let's jump right in.
0:52We'll start by quickly reviewing the
0:53typical population of different cards.
0:56So, today we're going to be focused on
0:57mangas, which typically have a
0:58population between 1,000 and 10,000 or
1:01in some cases even slightly more. This
1:03is obviously a really, really, really
1:05wide range of population, which is why I
1:07think uh this video is going to be
1:09pretty interesting to really try to
1:11tease out what the differences are
1:12between those different populations and
1:14how they should affect prices. SPS are a
1:16little bit less rare than that with
1:184,000 to 12,000. Then we have leaders at
1:218,000 to 25,000. And finally, we have
1:24altars with 6,000 to 35,000. So, while
1:27mangas on the whole are rarer than these
1:30other categories, there are many
1:32individual mangas that are going to be
1:33less rare than other cards from these
1:35categories, which I think is really
1:37interesting. So, when we talk about the
1:38mangas, we're going to be using a
1:40color-coded system to reflect one to
1:42five stars. So, something that's red is
1:45really bad. Something that's yellow, not
1:47very good. Blue is pretty neutral. light
1:49green is good and dark green is as good
1:51as it gets. One of the ways I'm going to
1:53use the color coding system is to talk
1:54about the population range. So, I broke
1:57this into very small, small, medium, and
1:59large. So, anything under 3,000 is a
2:01very small population for a manga.
2:03Anything between 3 and 5K I would say is
2:05small. Anything between 5 and 7 and 1/2K
2:08is medium. And anything above 7 1/2K,
2:10I'm going to characterize as large. The
2:13last thing we need to do before we can
2:14jump into the actual mangas themselves
2:16is talk a little bit about what graded
2:18card should cost. For the rest of the
2:20video, I'm going to compare the raw
2:22price of these mangas to their PSA
2:24values, and I'm going to look at the
2:26multiple to see whether or not I think
2:28the PSA version is overpriced,
2:31underpriced, or fairly priced relative
2:33to the price of the raw cards. And so
2:35for those who don't know, I created a
2:36chart where I went through and I looked
2:38at every single grade for all of the
2:40major graders and asked the question,
2:42how difficult would it be to earn these
2:44grades yourself and how much would that
2:46cost? And based off of that, how much of
2:48a premium should we pay for graded
2:50cards? And so for PSA, given all the
2:52price increases, the closing at value
2:54based grading, that actually has gone up
2:56a little bit and now is at 1.5 to 2.5x.
2:59An important caveat here though, the
3:01more expensive a card is, the lower
3:03multiple you want to pay for it. So if
3:05it's like a $10 card and it's going to
3:07cost $80 plus shipping and insurance to
3:10grade, no one's going to sell you that
3:12card for 2x or 4x. So paying 10x on a
3:16$10 card, like that's not terrible.
3:19Paying 10x on a $10,000 card, that's an
3:22absolute disaster because they didn't
3:23pay even remotely a fraction of that to
3:26get it graded, right? And what we've
3:27seen in our data is that on average uh
3:29PSA is giving a 10 between 80 and 90% of
3:33the time. That's tightened up a little
3:35bit uh over the last few months and I
3:37haven't had a chance to review that data
3:39yet. So I'm going to go ahead and assume
3:41about 80% given the tightening of
3:43standards around centering. So the way
3:44that translates to this video is I'm
3:46going to be giving a color coding to the
3:47multiples to say whether or not I think
3:49it's a really good deal or a really bad
3:51deal. We'll cover it as we move along.
3:53All right, let's talk about some cards.
3:54So, first we have the OPO1 manga. So, to
3:57level set here, there are some
3:59exceptions, but in a standard One Piece
4:00set, mangas appear to be one out of
4:02every three cases. So, by estimating the
4:06expected number of cases that have been
4:08opened using PSA and BGS graded data, I
4:11was then able to calculate an estimated
4:12population of these individual mangas.
4:14And so, that's the numbers that you're
4:15going to see up here. So, for OP1, it
4:18looks like there were around 5,400 of
4:20the Shanks mangas. It's currently going
4:22for $2,200 raw. So, you'll see that this
4:25is pretty expensive for the fact that
4:29Shanks is not a wildly popular character
4:31and the fact that this is like a medium
4:33print run size. However, given that it
4:36is first, that does make it more iconic.
4:38And so, it's hard for me to argue with
4:41this price because so much of the price
4:44is the function of that it's first. And
4:46I don't really know how to quantify
4:47that, right? So, will the market treat
4:49this as overvalued or undervalued? It's
4:51really difficult for me to say. And so
4:53that leaves me as putting it at fairly
4:54valued and just trusting where the
4:56market is. In terms of PSA 10s, the most
4:59recent sale for a PSA 10 on this was
5:015700, which was a multiple of 2.6. This
5:05I do not like. I think a multiple of 2.6
5:08is way too high to be paying for one of
5:11these cards. Now, I understand that
5:13there's an added complication for some
5:14of these very expensive cards, and that
5:16is that there are a lot of counterfeits
5:18out there. So, if you're buying a RAW
5:20card, uh, you are risking the
5:23possibility that it could be
5:24counterfeit. So, we should be paying
5:26extra for a graded card because it has
5:29been authenticated. I think the other
5:31thing that's probably happening here is
5:32because this card is so old, there are
5:35so few ungraded copies left in
5:37circulation that finding a raw one is
5:40much harder. And that means that people
5:43are just opting to pay more for the
5:44graded copies rather than try to find a
5:46raw one and grade it themselves. So I
5:50understand why the premium might be
5:51higher for this than for other things,
5:53but still I think 2.6 is is way too
5:55high. I would be much more comfortable
5:58around 2x here even given all the
6:00caveats uh that I mentioned. Moving on
6:02to OPO2, we have the Ace manga with an
6:05estimated population of 5300. So
6:07extremely similar to the Shanks. We have
6:09a price of 2,000 which is a little bit
6:11less than the Shanks. Uh I do think this
6:13card should be less than the Shanks even
6:15though it's a little bit rarer. I think
6:16it probably should be significantly less
6:18than the Shanks if I'm being honest. So
6:21while I put this as I think it's fairly
6:23valued, this does feel a little bit
6:25expensive to me. Uh if the Shanks is
6:27$2,200, this being 2,000, is Ace a
6:30little bit more popular than Shanks?
6:32Maybe. Neither of them personally are my
6:34favorite art, but they're both old. That
6:36makes them more nostalgic. So again,
6:38it's a little bit difficult for me to
6:40argue in terms of the PSA price. A PSA
6:4210 here is going for $3,200, which is a
6:45multiple of 1.6. I like this number way
6:48better uh than what we saw for the
6:49Shanks. And this still has a lot of the
6:51caveats that I mentioned for the Shanks,
6:53right? There are counterfeits out there.
6:55It's pretty old, so a lot of them have
6:56already been graded, and there aren't
6:58too many in circulation. So, I don't
7:00feel nearly as bad uh about buying a PSA
7:0310 at this price than I would at buying
7:05the Shanks at that price. Moving on to
7:07OPO3, we have the same population at
7:105,300. We have the SOA King manga. You
7:12know, no spoilers about who this might
7:14be. Um, but obviously $800 is very cheap
7:18for a manga of this population. Uh, and
7:22this age. Obviously, comparing it to the
7:24Ace, it's less than half the price. Even
7:26if you know who it really is, that
7:28person is still, you know, not nearly as
7:30popular of character as Ace. All that
7:33said, I think $800 for this is pretty
7:35reasonable given the print run of this
7:38and how much more expensive the other
7:40ones that came before it are, and
7:42frankly how expensive some of the ones
7:44that have come after it are. I'm not
7:46going to say that it's underpriced
7:48because again, I don't think there's a
7:49tremendous amount of demand for this
7:50manga, but I think it's fairly priced at
7:52$800. What I don't like though is the
7:54PSA 10 price because again, we have a
7:56multiple of 2.1x here, which I think is
7:59too high. So, I think that $1,700 uh for
8:03this is quite a lot for a manga that is
8:06probably not that desirable and could be
8:08had in a raw form for only $800. If I
8:11was going to pick up one, I would
8:12probably pick up the raw one. There's
8:14probably fewer counterfeits of these out
8:15there than there are of the shanks in
8:17particular. Um, but I would still be
8:19careful because there definitely are
8:21some out there. Moving on to OPO4, we
8:23have the Sabo manga. I have this at
8:255600, which is a slightly bigger
8:27population than the other ones. I have
8:29to say at $600, this to me looks like
8:32one of the best value mangas out there.
8:34I understand the Sabo is not like wildly
8:36popular, but like would you rather have
8:38a Sabo or a Soga King? I think I would
8:40personally rather have the Sabo. Um I
8:43also think the art on this is decent and
8:44I think the black and the gold looks
8:46really good with the manga panel. So at
8:48$600, this is one that I actually think
8:50is like a pretty solid deal. Um because
8:54if you compare this price um to the
8:56other mangas that are around this price,
8:59most of them are going to have a much
9:00much higher population and some of the
9:02ones that are more expensive uh with
9:04similar quality characters also have a
9:06much higher population. And so for that
9:08reason, I think this is a pretty solid
9:09value. You know, 2x is higher than I
9:12typically want to pay for a PSA 10
9:14multiple. However, given that this one
9:16is significantly cheaper, that's like
9:18less of a premium. So, as I said, when a
9:20card is cheaper, you would expect to
9:22play a higher multiple. And when a card
9:23is more expensive, you'd expect to play
9:25a lower multiple. And so, it doesn't
9:27strike me as like ridiculous here at
9:29$1,200. Um, I would probably still opt
9:32to buy the raw one, but $1,200 in a PSA
9:3610, I think, is a reasonable value for
9:38what this is. Moving on to OP5, subject
9:41I know that I am going to get hammered
9:43about in the comments, but I got to
9:44stick to my guns on this one. So, OP05
9:47because there were three mangas. I know
9:48I'm only showing two here because I only
9:50had space for two and nobody really
9:51cares about kid, but there are three
9:53mangas and each one I estimate has a
9:55population of around 4,200.
9:58Obviously, the big ticket item here is
10:00the Gear Five Luffy, which in my opinion
10:02is probably the second best looking of
10:04the mangas. I do like this card quite a
10:07bit. Um, that said, it's $10,000 raw and
10:12the population is 4,200, which is, you
10:15know, a small population for a manga,
10:18but not a very small population for a
10:20manga. You know, when we talk about the
10:21other mangas that fall into the
10:23categories of grails, they're going to
10:25be much much much rarer than this. And
10:28so, $10,000 for a card that's frankly
10:31not that rare makes me a little bit
10:33uncomfortable. I would also say too that
10:36I am getting increasingly worried that
10:38as we advance towards the end of the
10:40manga, we are going to see a Gear 6 and
10:43I don't know what is going to happen
10:46with Gear Five stuff when we get like a
10:49new more iconic final pose. Um, you
10:52know, my personal favorite of the poses
10:54are Gear 2. We'll talk about that when
10:56we get to that manga. Like that's the
10:58first time that Luffy ever transforms
11:00and nothing can ever take that away from
11:02it. Obviously, like Gear 5 is still
11:04going to be iconic because of what it
11:06means in the story. I'm not going to
11:07give too many spoilers, but like if
11:10there is a Gear 6, is this still going
11:12to be like one of the ultimate grails?
11:14I'm not sure. So, I put this in yellow.
11:18And that's less a reflection of I think
11:20that the market has priced it wrong
11:22because I just don't know. It's more of
11:24a reflection of me seeing there being a
11:26ton of risk around this card. And so for
11:29me, when something is highly risky, I
11:31would want to pay less to account for
11:35some of that risk. Obviously, you know,
11:37I don't play in this space, so you
11:40should take everything that I say here
11:41with a grain of salt. Like, I am not
11:43financially invested in these decisions.
11:44I don't own any of these cards because
11:47all of them to me uh are overpriced. Um,
11:51but this one in particular makes me
11:53nervous. I also think that looking at
11:55this from a PSA 10 perspective, $22,000,
11:592.2x is really high to pay for a PSA 10.
12:03Now, this is probably the most
12:05counterfeited of the mangas if I had to
12:07guess. So, I understand having to pay a
12:09premium for a version that's been
12:11authenticated, but a $12,000 premium
12:15does strike me as quite high. The law,
12:18on the other hand, I actually think
12:20seems like a little bit of a sleeper
12:21here. As I mentioned, 4200 is a pretty
12:23small population for a manga, Law is a
12:26pretty reasonable character, I really
12:27like the way that the purple looks with
12:29the panel. And while this is not like an
12:31amazing image of Law, I think it's
12:33better than the other one. And so, at
12:35only $1,350, you're getting a pretty
12:37rare card. Plus, if you want to buy it
12:39in a PSA 10, you're only paying a 1.6x
12:42multiple for $2,200, which again feels
12:45sort of right on the money to me in
12:47terms of what these cards should cost. I
12:49think that Law is probably the most
12:50undervalued of the OPO5 mangas and so it
12:53would be my recommendation for that
12:54reason. Moving on to OPO6, we have
12:56another really popular manga and I'll be
12:58honest, this is one that I also like as
12:59well. This one has a pretty big
13:02population. The population of this one
13:04is 7,900, which is much bigger than the
13:06ones that we've looked at so far. And
13:08despite that, it's in raw form going for
13:11$3,000, which is more expensive than
13:13either the Ace or the Shanks, which has
13:16a significantly smaller population.
13:18obviously still much smaller than the
13:20Luffy. Now, I know Zoro is wildly
13:22popular. I know that this is the only
13:24manga that Zoro's gotten so far.
13:25However, Zoro is going to get more
13:27mangas and this is a really big
13:29population. So, this is another one that
13:31I would be a little bit careful with.
13:33Again, I think it's cool. Obviously,
13:34Zoro manga should command a premium, but
13:36with such a large population to be so
13:39expensive,
13:41that makes me a little bit nervous. You
13:42know, in terms of the PSA price, I think
13:44a 1.7x multiple is reasonable here, but
13:47I still think it's really expensive at
13:505100. Just to talk through the math of
13:52this a little bit in terms of what the
13:54PSA multiple should cost. So, if you
13:57bought this card raw for $3,000 and you
13:59wanted to send it into PSA, because the
14:01expected cost of it coming back as a 10
14:03is going to be $5,100, you're going to
14:05have to pay for walkthrough, which is
14:06going to cost you $600 plus shipping,
14:09insurance, the hassle, all that sort of
14:11stuff. So, let's say it cost you $700 to
14:14get this graded, but there's not a
14:16guarantee that it's going to come back
14:17at 10, right? So, if we assume that 80%
14:19of these cards come back at 10, you have
14:22to factor that into the price in terms
14:24of the risk that the person who graded
14:26it is absorbing, right? So, that's worth
14:28like 600 bucks. So, now we're up to
14:301,300 bucks. Plus, then we have the
14:32authentication piece. I typically use
14:34like 10% as a benchmark that it's worth
14:37to pay for an authenticated card. So,
14:39that's another $300. So now you have a
14:42$3,000 card that's up to 4.6K. And so if
14:46you're paying like $500 more than that
14:49to basically compensate the person who
14:50went through all this work, that doesn't
14:52strike me as ridiculous, right? So
14:54unfortunately PSA has gotten so
14:55expensive that that's the type of math
14:57that we're talking about with these
14:58cards. So, you know, I think $5,100 is
15:02too expensive for this card because I
15:04think 3,000 is too expensive for the RAW
15:06card, but I don't think it's ridiculous
15:08for the PSA version specifically. Moving
15:10on to Ebo1. This is another manga that I
15:13do actually like. Part of the reason is
15:15because the population on this is so
15:16small. Even though there was only one
15:18manga in the set and it maintained that
15:20one in three pull rate. Because the
15:22print run for Ebo1 was so low, I'm
15:24estimating that there were only about
15:252,600 of these that were printed, which
15:28again is like significantly smaller than
15:31the year 5 manga and is going to be one
15:33of the smallest manga populations that
15:34we look at. I also think that Chopper is
15:37going to be really, really popular.
15:39There's some really good panels. Yes,
15:41they're going to make more Chopper
15:42mangas in the future, I think, but like
15:44this will always be the first, and this
15:45one is genuinely rare. And so, for all
15:47of those reasons, I think this is super
15:49desirable. And then factor in the fact
15:51that $4,000 is significantly less than
15:55the other mangas that are really, really
15:57rare. I liked this much better when it
15:59was like $3,000, but at 4,000, it
16:01strikes me as a fair price. Then when we
16:04look at the PSA 10 only having a
16:06multiple of 1.5, I think that's a very
16:09solid multiple. And so this is an
16:11instance where like again we just ran
16:12the math with the Zoro, right? So if we
16:14ran that same math with this chopper,
16:17like that's going to get us over $5,000.
16:19So this doesn't strike me as a
16:20ridiculous premium to pay for a PSA 10
16:22as opposed to doing it yourself. So, you
16:24know, of the two, given how many
16:26counterfeits are probably out there, I
16:27think I actually like the PSA 10. It's
16:29still very very expensive obviously, but
16:32I think given how small the population
16:34is and that it's a desirable character,
16:36I see the argument for this one far
16:38better than for most of the others.
16:39Moving on to OP07, we have Boa with a
16:42population of $6,800.
16:44Again, this is another like medium-siz
16:46manga print run. Boa here is around
16:48$2,000, which again is a fairly typical
16:51manga price. This is the same as the
16:52Ace. It's a little bit less than the
16:54Shanks. We have a 1.5 multiple here for
16:58a PSA 10, which I think is totally
17:00reasonable. So, you have a $3,000 PSA
17:0210. So, you know, I'd say this is fair.
17:06Um, I think that B is very popular. I
17:08think the art on this one is okay. You
17:10know, it's a mediumsiz print run with a
17:13mediumsiz price with a reasonably
17:14popular character. So, if you like it,
17:16that seems reasonable to me. Next up, we
17:18have OPO8. We have the manga with a
17:20population of 7,200.
17:23So, this is a pretty large population
17:25manga. It's also not a wildly popular
17:28card. I will be honest. I think is
17:30really cool. This is of course the only
17:32manga that I ever pulled. Um, you know,
17:34it was very, very pretty. Uh, but I
17:36don't think it's, you know, as pretty as
17:38some of the other cards, to be honest.
17:40So, I understand why this is only $500.
17:43Maybe the downside is limited a little
17:45bit by the fact that it's already pretty
17:47cheap, but like
17:49would I rather have a really awesome SP
17:52than this? I know I would personally. I
17:55think 1.75x
17:57uh here is pretty solid given that it's
17:59a less expensive card. I actually
18:01wouldn't be surprised if that price goes
18:02up a little bit since there probably is
18:05a relatively low percentage of these
18:07graded compared to other mangas because
18:09it's so much less expensive. So, I do
18:11think if you want to buy one, like
18:12picking up a PSA 10 at 870 strikes me as
18:15eminently reasonable. Next up, we have
18:17PRBO1 with a population of around 7,400.
18:21I have the same things to say here about
18:22the Nami. Basically, that I said about
18:24the Boa. It's a popular character with a
18:26pretty large print run. The print one in
18:28this one's a little bit larger than the
18:29Boa. I would say that Nami is maybe a
18:31little bit more popular than Boa.
18:32They're the exact same price at $2,000.
18:35The multiple for a PSA 10 is a little
18:38bit worse here. So, you're paying $3,600
18:41instead of 3,000 for the boa. 3600 I
18:44feel like is a little bit worse of a
18:45deal for this than 3,000 is for the boa,
18:47but it still doesn't strike me as
18:49ridiculous given that Nami is a really
18:50popular character. Okay, moving on to
18:52OP9, which I think is one of the most
18:54interesting sets. It's one of my
18:55personal favorite sets of all time. We
18:57have the Roger manga, which I will
19:00caveat to say that this is a very
19:01difficult poll rate to try to estimate.
19:03So, while you should take all of my
19:05estimates with a huge grain of salt
19:07because they are estimates and they are
19:08inherently flawed and will be wrong, the
19:12question is whether they're useful, and
19:13I personally do think they are useful.
19:16But take these really rare ones even
19:18more with that understanding. I'm
19:20estimating that the population of this
19:22is around 1,600, which would be the
19:24smallest one that we've looked at so
19:25far. I think there's a lot that's really
19:28iconic about this. Roger doesn't get a
19:30lot of cards. I think Bandai very
19:32deliberately keeps Roger kind of rare
19:34and special. And so I think the fact
19:36that like this is the gold manga. It's
19:40the only gold Roger. If they don't make
19:42another gold manga, I think this will
19:45retain its place at very high in Grail
19:47territory. And unlike the year 5 manga,
19:50this one is actually rare. And for me,
19:52that's the really big distinction here.
19:54you know, 4,200 versus 1,600, like the
19:58amount of demand that needs to exist for
20:00these cards is much much lower for this
20:03Roger to maintain its price than for the
20:04Gear 5 manga. So, while I honestly have
20:07no idea how to price a card this
20:09expensive, I'm going to go ahead and
20:10trust the market on this one. This has a
20:121.4x multiple for a PSA 10 right now,
20:15which, you know, again, this is a super
20:17expensive card, right? So, we would
20:19expect to see a lower multiple. Um,
20:21however, given all the concerns about
20:23authentication and forgeries, I think
20:25this is like a really good multiple for
20:27a PSA 10. But again, I'll be honest, I
20:29feel nervous even talking about cards
20:31this expensive because I would never buy
20:33them. And so, I don't want it to come
20:35across that I'm advising anybody else to
20:37buy them. I'm just trying to present the
20:39facts uh in case this is the market that
20:41you are in since lots of people are in
20:43that market, even if it's not mine
20:44personally. Moving on to the OP9 regular
20:47mangas. I actually like these quite a
20:49bit. So, there's two other mangas in the
20:51set that I did not have space for on the
20:52slide. You have the Buggy and the Teach.
20:55Uh, so I included the two most expensive
20:57here. Given that there were four in this
20:59set, even though OP9 had a pretty large
21:01print run, they have an estimated
21:03population of 3,150,
21:05which is pretty low by the standards of
21:07mangas. I think the Wano Black Cape
21:10Luffy is like one of the cooler forms of
21:12Luffy. You know, I think at $2,500,
21:15given that this is truly rare, I
21:17actually think this is a pretty solid
21:19price. I mean, if you're looking at the
21:21Ace at $2,000 with a population of like
21:2653 or 5,400, if you're looking at like
21:29the BOA at 2,000 with a population of
21:326,800, if you're looking at the Nami
21:34with a population of 7,400, this is only
21:36a little bit more expensive than that.
21:38And it's like half the population of
21:40many of those. And so for that reason, I
21:42actually think at $2,500, this one is
21:45like maybe a tiny bit slept on, uh, at
21:47least in RAW form. Now, the most recent
21:50sale was 2x RAW for a PSA 10, which I do
21:53think is a little bit high. The thing
21:55that's really annoying, frankly, about
21:56the price of $5,100,
21:59uh, which is the same exact thing that
22:00we saw with the Zoro, is that anything
22:02over $5,000 is going to put you into
22:04walkthrough territory for a PSA. Uh, and
22:08so by virtue of it being like $101 more
22:11expensive, it's going to cost $250 more
22:14to grade. That could be contributing to
22:16the multiple here. But overall, I think
22:18this is a pretty good value card for how
22:20rare it is and how sort of like
22:22important and iconic it is to the story.
22:24Next up, we have the Shanks at $1,600.
22:27Again, this is less expensive than the
22:28OP1 Shanks. Aesthetically, I like this
22:30one more than the first one, but you
22:32know, the first one being the first
22:34means a lot. I think that this is
22:36really, really low population. And so
22:38for $1,600, even though it is the second
22:42manga that we've gotten of Shanks, um, I
22:44still think that this is a pretty fair
22:46price for a manga that's this rare. A
22:48multiple of 1.7, you know, I'd like it
22:50to be a tiny bit lower, but I still
22:51think that's pretty solid. So $2,700 for
22:54a PSA 10 here, again, I think seems
22:56pretty reasonable. Moving on to OP10.
22:59Uh, this is the largest population that
23:01we've seen so far at 8,000. We have the
23:03Law manga here with a price of around
23:05$600. So, this is obviously one of the
23:08cheapest mangas. It's also one of the
23:09largest population mangas, so it's not
23:12surprising. I'm like a little bit
23:14surprised that it's not more expensive
23:15given that Law is a pretty popular
23:17character, but I also get that this is
23:19not like the most iconic piece of art of
23:22Law. Um, and so this feels pretty
23:25reasonable to me. This is like one of
23:27the ones that has tempted me in the past
23:29just because I am a law fan. But like
23:32given the population size, I certainly
23:34don't think it's like an amazing deal.
23:35You know, 1.8x multiple I think is fine
23:38here. It's like a little more than I
23:40typically like to pay, but given that
23:41it's a cheaper card, I understand the
23:44increase in the multiple premium. So
23:45$1,100 for this manga doesn't strike me
23:48as ridiculous either. Moving on to Ebo2,
23:51we have the Year 2 manga Luffy. This is
23:53my favorite of the mangas. I think the
23:55art on this is absolutely iconic. I
23:57think they nailed it with the smoke. I
23:59think this one just looks so cool. It's
24:01slightly larger population than the
24:03OP09. Um, but definitely is a small
24:06population for a manga. $4,500 is pretty
24:11high for a card of this rarity.
24:14Typically, the cards that are this
24:15expensive are lower print runs. You
24:18know, the Chopper was around 2,600. And
24:21that may not sound like a huge
24:22difference, but like I actually think
24:24the difference is pretty big. That said,
24:26I do think the art on this one is
24:27absolutely iconic. I don't think I'm the
24:29only one who thinks that. So, at $4,500,
24:32I think this is expensive, but I see the
24:36argument for this one. I would say, um,
24:39what I don't like is the multiple for
24:41the PSA 10. A 2.2x multiple on a $4,500
24:45card, in my opinion, is way, way too
24:48much. It should be in like the 1.5,
24:50maybe 1.7x range. Um, and with a card of
24:54this price, that ends up being a huge
24:56difference in price. Now again, this is
24:58another one that uh is likely to be
25:00counterfeited a lot, so I understand why
25:01people pay a premium here. But this does
25:04feel like the PSA 10 version has been
25:06hyped a little bit, and I wouldn't be
25:07surprised if it comes back down. But,
25:10you know, if you're thinking 5 years
25:12down the road, I do think this is going
25:13to be one of the most iconic mangas, so
25:15maybe it matters a little bit less.
25:17Moving on to OP11. Uh, so OP11 had the
25:20largest print run of a non-anniversary
25:22set uh that I've looked at. And I've
25:24looked at everything up to OP13. And so
25:27that because there was only one manga in
25:29the set left us with a population of
25:3110,000, which is frankly enormous by the
25:34standards uh of a manga. So this one is
25:38$1,500. And I have to say that like this
25:41is such a large print run. This strikes
25:44me as too expensive uh for something
25:46with 10,000. I mean, typically we see
25:48almost like a parabolic relationship
25:50between rarity and price where like if
25:54you have something and it's $100 and you
25:58have something else and the print run is
26:00half that size, you typically expect it
26:01to be more than $200, right? Because the
26:05rarer something gets, the higher and
26:07higher the price goes. This is like the
26:09opposite. So, we have like the OP9 Luffy
26:12card that was $2,500 with a population
26:15of a little over 3,000. I estimate that
26:17there's more than three times as many of
26:19these and yet this one is like more than
26:22half the price of that one and that
26:23strikes me as too high frankly. Now I do
26:26think that the OP9 Luffy is probably a
26:28little bit underrated at its current
26:30price. But even if that were to go up a
26:32little bit to like 3,000, I still think
26:34at half the price for three times the
26:36population, I think this is too
26:38expensive. This is a very large
26:40population for an SP uh let alone a
26:42manga. In terms of the PSA 10 price, a
26:451.7 multiple here I think is pretty
26:47fair. So like I think you could argue
26:49that this is reasonably priced as a PSA
26:5210. Um I still think it's too expensive
26:55frankly given the population. I would
26:56like to see this one in like the $1,000
26:58to $1,200 range raw and maybe like the
27:01$2,000 range in a PSA 10. And the last
27:04set we're going to look at today is
27:05OP12. And we have with this one a
27:08relatively underwhelming manga that has
27:10a really large population. And that's
27:12the Jewelry Bonnie with a population of
27:149,100,
27:16slightly less than the previous Luffy
27:19manga. But obviously Bonnie is a less
27:21popular character. And so this one's
27:23only going for $800. I also think given
27:25the population that this is way too
27:28expensive for Bonnie. If we're looking
27:30at a Sabo manga being like $600
27:35and it has, you know, slightly larger
27:37than half the print run of this, why
27:39would this Bonnie be $800? I don't
27:42really have a good explanation for that
27:44personally. Uh, so I think that this is
27:46overpriced. Like, it's almost 2,000 more
27:49than the I get that people like Bonnie
27:51more than they like, but like that
27:53additional population should hurt its
27:55price, right? So, to me, this should be
27:56like a five to $600 manga. Now, I will
28:00say this is a pretty low multiple to a
28:02PSA 10. So, I do think it's much more
28:04reasonable if you're looking to buy the
28:06PSA 10 because if this was a $500 manga
28:10with like a two and change X multiple,
28:12that wouldn't strike me as like
28:14ridiculous. So, I think that this is
28:17like a fair price to pay for a PSA 10,
28:19but I do think that the RAW version is a
28:21little bit expensive. That's all I have
28:23for today. As always, I hope you found
28:25this helpful. I'm sure many of you
28:27disagree with the takes that I made, so
28:29please be sure to push back in the
28:31comments. You know, I appreciate the
28:32engagement and love hearing your
28:34arguments to the contrary. You may very
28:36well convince me to adopt a different
28:37position. It's happened many times
28:39before and will happen again. Uh, if you
28:41did find the video helpful, please give
28:42us a like. And if you like this content
28:44and haven't already, please subscribe.
28:46We have our TCG Player affiliate link as
28:48well as our eBay storefront. No pressure
28:50at all, but if you do buy something
28:51there, we get a small commission, which
28:53helps us out a ton. So with that, as
28:55always, I appreciate your time and I
28:57will see you in the next

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