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Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro: Qual plano REALMENTE melhora a economia? — Transcript

by Breno Perrucho - Jovens de Negócios · 6,671 words · 1,064 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00These are Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro's
0:02plans for the next four years. And
0:04despite being more opposed than Daniel
0:06Vorcaro's "Overdue Bill" and "Offshore"
0:08on how to improve public finances, both
0:10have more measures that worsen the
0:12primary result than improve it. In the
0:15last video, we saw that Lula presented
0:17four measures that improve the primary
0:19result and ten that worsen it, while
0:21Flávio Bolsonaro had nine measures
0:23that improve the primary result and
0:25thirteen that worsen it. And
0:27surprisingly, it makes perfect sense,
0:30because to get votes, a candidate is
0:32obliged to promise new programs, more
0:34projects, increased funding, while at
0:37the same time needing to take unpopular
0:39measures to improve public finances.
0:42And then the consequence is that the
0:43list of promises is usually longer than
0:45the list of cuts. And then part of the
0:47hope lies in the measures that promise
0:49to make the GDP grow. But if I need to
0:52be frank, I'll tell you right now,
0:54almost half of these measures, both
0:56Lula's and Flávio Bolsonaro's, cost
0:58money. So the question is: will this
1:01growth pay for itself, or will the bill
1:03end up in your pocket? Let me give you
1:07the context of the problem so we are on
1:09the same page. Why are measures that
1:11stimulate GDP growth important? As
1:15we've already seen, if GDP increases,
1:17government revenue rises, which
1:19improves the primary surplus, reduces
1:21the rate of growth of public debt,
1:23attracts foreign capital, which makes
1:25the dollar cheaper, controls inflation,
1:27and allows the Central Bank to lower
1:29interest rates, further stimulating
1:30economic growth. Okay? The thing is,
1:34Brazil has proven itself in the last 15
1:37years to be a country with low growth
1:39compared to other emerging countries.
1:41From 2011 to 2025, Brazilian GDP grew
1:45by an average of 1.3%per year. And in
1:48the same period, for comparison, India
1:51grew by 6.1%per year, China by 6.4%per
1:53year, and Indonesia by 4.7%. And here
1:58on our side, to make it more similar,
2:00Chile grew by 2.7%per year and Colombia
2:02by 3.2%. The decade from 2011 to 2020
2:07saw such low growth that it was the
2:10worst decade for our economy in the
2:13last 120 years. If we were to continue
2:16at the pace we had in the 2011-2020
2:18decade, it would take us more than 300
2:21years just to reach the level of
2:23productivity that Americans have today.
2:26And speaking of productivity, the
2:28average Brazilian produces about 1/4 of
2:30what an American produces per hour of
2:32work, 2/5 of what a Japanese person
2:33produces, and less than half of what a
2:35South Korean produces. But it's a
2:38mistake to interpret this simply as
2:41Brazilians working little or being lazy
2:43. Think about it this way: if a
2:46Brazilian spends an hour transforming
2:48100 kg of ore into rebar, while an
2:50American spends the same hour designing
2:52a microchip that will be produced in
2:54millions of tons, which one produces
2:56more? The American. Do you know why?
2:59Because the added value of their
3:01production is much higher. In the total
3:03value of the chip, the raw material
3:05doesn't represent much, because what
3:08really matters is the knowledge inside.
3:11Ah, I get it, Brenão. It's just that
3:13the Brazilian economy is very dependent
3:15on commodities, right? I heard that 11%
3:18of our GDP comes from the primary
3:20sector alone. And you're right? The
3:22Brazilian primary sector represents
3:24much more of our GDP with those 11%than
3:27it does in the American GDP, where the
3:29primary sector only represents 2%. But
3:33there's an irony here: even with the
3:35American primary sector representing
3:37less than 1/5 of our GDP, its primary
3:40sector production is still three times
3:42greater than ours per year. Look at
3:45that. So the problem isn't really that
3:47we concentrate a larger share of our
3:49GDP in the primary sector than they do.
3:52What happens is that, on average, an
3:54American farm worker produces almost 14
3:56times more than a Brazilian, according
3:58to a survey by FGV. And it's not
4:00because Brazilian agriculture is
4:02backward. Our large agribusiness
4:04companies are among the most productive
4:06in the world. Okay, but what's the
4:08point? The problem is that besides the
4:10large Brazilian agribusiness companies,
4:13there are millions of workers on small
4:15farms, often having to use hoes and
4:18without access to credit, technical
4:20assistance, or machinery. Meanwhile,
4:23the average producer in the United
4:24States has a tractor with GPS, a
4:26combine harvester, insurance, access to
4:28cheap credit, and an agronomist helping
4:30them. So the access that the average
4:33American has to cutting-edge technology
4:35to increase their productivity is
4:37incomparably greater than that of
4:39Brazilians. But there's a reason that
4:41contributes to this difference. Pay
4:43attention. 70%of Brazil's GDP comes
4:47from services, commerce, food, and
4:50personal services, domestic services.
4:54While in the United States, services
4:57represent 77%of their GDP. Oh, hold on.
5:0170 versus 77 doesn't change that much,
5:03it's similar, right? No, it's totally
5:05different. You know why? Because the
5:07majority of Brazilians who work in the
5:10service sector are employed in
5:12traditional service roles. What is that
5:14? It's the supermarket cashier, the
5:17shop assistant, the waiter, the diner
5:19cook, the hairdresser, the cleaning
5:20lady. All of these are important jobs,
5:23but the value of their hourly work is
5:25worth significantly less. And in the
5:28United States, half of those working in
5:30the service sector are employed in what
5:31? Modern services. This includes
5:34sectors like technology, finance,
5:36engineering, consulting, and
5:38advertising, which have a much higher
5:40added value, while in Brazil only one
5:42in four people work in these types of
5:44modern services. Look at this: If
5:46Brazil had exactly the same sectoral
5:48division as the United States, our
5:50productivity would increase by 68%,
5:52driven mainly by the modernization of
5:54services according to FGV (Fundação
5:57Getúlio Vargas). But if each Brazilian
6:00sector were as efficient as the same
6:02sector in the United States due to
6:04widespread access to cheap,
6:06cutting-edge technology, our
6:07productivity would increase by 430%. In
6:12other words, Americans don't produce
6:14more because they are less lazy than us
6:15, but because they work longer hours.
6:17Americans produce more because they
6:19have more machinery, more technology,
6:21more training, less bureaucracy, access
6:22to cheap credit, and less informality.
6:25And on top of that, the American
6:27economy generates many more jobs
6:29precisely in the service sectors that
6:31produce the most value. And that's
6:33exactly where the measures of both
6:35candidates try to change things. So
6:37let's do a quantitative analysis of the
6:40proposals. If we filter here by Lula,
6:43look, Lula has 15 measures that
6:45directly impact the GDP, and of those,
6:4714 of them positively stimulate our
6:50country's GDP. Now, if we consider
6:52Flávio here, out of the 19 measures
6:55that he presented, 100%of them serve to
6:57positively stimulate the national GDP.
7:00But remember this: to be fair, a
7:02measure that impacts the GDP negatively
7:04, just like this one from Lula, does
7:06have a valid reason for its existence.
7:08For instance, if we look down here at
7:10this specific measure that hinders
7:11Lula's GDP growth, what are we going to
7:13see in the end? Reviewing aspects of
7:15labor legislation, right, which was the
7:172017 labor legislation. The objective
7:20of this measure is to change labor
7:22legislation to make conditions even
7:24less precarious for workers. This
7:26naturally has a cost for the employer,
7:28which is why it negatively impacts the
7:30economy. However, when this measure is
7:33granted, if it is accompanied by a
7:34corresponding reduction in business
7:36taxes to also benefit the side of the
7:37worker, then it might be considered to
7:39be a perfectly fair and balanced
7:40arrangement. Since it hasn't been
7:42disclosed, how would this be done? We
7:44can't know if it is or isn't. Because
7:46the plan doesn't even specify what
7:47these precarious conditions are that
7:49are included in this measure. And as
7:51we've already seen here in relation to
7:53Lula, of his 15 measures, six have a
7:55negative effect on the primary result,
7:57meaning they will have a cost to public
7:59accounts. And in Flavio's case, nine of
8:02his 19 measures worsened the primary
8:05result in some way. It also needs to be
8:08said that just because a measure
8:10negatively impacts the primary result
8:12today doesn't necessarily mean it's a
8:13bad measure. It's probably a measure
8:17aimed at spending money in the short
8:19term to stimulate economic growth. And
8:22then, in the long term, the return that
8:24the increase in GDP will bring in
8:25government revenue as a result of this
8:27measure will offset the cost. Does that
8:30make sense? But of course, there are
8:32measures that stimulate GDP and don't
8:34require any spending, right? And we're
8:36going to delve into all of them. Now
8:39let's start by clicking on side-by-side
8:42comparison, because then we can analyze
8:44measures that are on the same topics,
8:47sectors, or that are similar between
8:49the two candidates. And then, if by
8:51chance there's a candidate who talked
8:53about a topic and another didn't, it
8:54will appear here, for example, only for
8:56one of them, and for the other
8:57candidate it will say "no equivalent
8:59proposal in the plan." By the way, I
9:01created this entire website using the
9:03Hostinger AI builder, basically
9:04uploading the government plans and
9:06giving prompts about what I wanted it
9:08to show. You can analyze all the
9:10candidates 'measures by clicking on "
9:12see proposals." You can understand the
9:14profile of the public debt and assess
9:17how it has evolved over time. You can
9:19see what each candidate said in
9:21interviews so you're not only surprised
9:23by the government plan. You can even
9:25download the plan here if you click on
9:27"open full PDF." For example, this is
9:30Lula's plan. And if you want to be even
9:33more specific, if you scroll down, you
9:35can literally specify the segment you
9:37want to identify whether there were
9:39measures or not, such as entrepreneurs,
9:41workers, freelancers, investors. And by
9:45clicking, you'll see what measures each
9:47candidate took for each of these
9:48audiences. Regardless of who wins the
9:52election, folks, if you also do
9:54something like this—building a
9:55website creating something interactive,
9:57relevant, that truly delivers value to
9:59an audience—it can generate an extra
10:01source of income. And the only thing I
10:04did was give prompts here, which I made
10:06changes to, explaining what I wanted,
10:08to make the site very intuitive, just
10:10like I'm showing you. But honestly,
10:13this is just the tip of the iceberg.
10:16Hostger's BuildA allows you to create
10:18any idea you have, any type of website
10:20or page, without needing to know a
10:22single line of code. And then you can
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10:28sales page for your business, showcase
10:30your design portfolio, or whatever your
10:32creativity dictates. It's very easy to
10:35get access to Hostger's builder. You
10:37have 30 days to request a refund, so
10:38you can test it thoroughly. But for
10:40those subscribed to this channel,
10:41Hostger has decided to give a 10%
10:43discount on the EA Builder subscription
10:45. To do this, just click on the first
10:47link in the description and enter the
10:49coupon code "jovens," okay? So click on
10:52the link and let's monetize. Let's go
10:54back to GDP. Side-by-side comparison.
10:56First topic: infrastructure, state
10:58concessions. So Lula wants the new
11:01edition of the new PAC. PAC is a growth
11:04acceleration program, right? The PAC (
11:07Growth Acceleration Program) started
11:09back in 2007 and underwent several
11:11changes over time until it was renamed
11:13the new PAC in 2023. What Lula is
11:15promising is to combine money from the
11:18federal budget, state-owned companies,
11:20financing from public banks, and
11:22private investments to bring
11:24infrastructure investment projects,
11:26such as building highways and railways,
11:28creating power plants, improving basic
11:31sanitation, and housing; he also
11:34mentions investing more in health and
11:37education. Now, Lula doesn't specify
11:40how much he wants to invest or how much
11:42of that would come specifically from
11:45public funds, but he says that during
11:47his current term, the PAC has already
11:49invested over R $ 1.3 trillion. And now
11:52, if we turn our attention to Flávio,
11:54he is a bit more specific. He wants to
11:56invest 900 billion in infrastructure.
11:58In the end, it's very similar, isn't it
12:00? But the argument he uses is that he
12:02wants to reduce logistics costs, which
12:05represent 15.5%of our GDP, while the
12:07United States has costs that are almost
12:09half of that. And the way Flávio wants
12:11to do this is through, again, the
12:13creation of highways, railways,
12:15airports, ports, waterways, and also
12:17sanitation via public-private
12:18partnerships and concessions. So,
12:21whether it's Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro,
12:23short-term investment in any of these
12:25measures harms the primary result, but
12:28in the long term, in theory, if done
12:30correctly, this is done to pay for
12:32itself in the form of increased revenue
12:34provided by the GDP growth that this
12:37investment generated. Does that make
12:39sense? Okay? These other measures below
12:41—concessions, highways, reinvestments
12:43, privatizations—that have this tag
12:44of improving the primary result, we
12:46already talked about in the other video
12:47, so I'll skip ahead here, but the link
12:49to that video is also in the
12:50description. When you finish this, go
12:52there and watch it. Next topic: taxes.
12:55Here, Flávio, the reason is simple,
12:56right? To revise the tax reform and
12:58reduce the VAT, which was something
12:59done during Lula's government. Ah, so
13:01this measure here is basically to
13:03replace what Lula did. Yes, but more
13:05than that, it involves tax cuts, that
13:07is, reducing the size of the public
13:10sector, which harms government revenue.
13:12That's why it's here with the worst
13:14primary result, by the way. But wait,
13:15if it harms government revenue, how
13:17does it stimulate GDP? Well, very
13:19simple. If taxes are lowered in society
13:21, the prices of products and services
13:24end up going down as well. And then the
13:26purchasing power of Brazilians
13:28increases. And if the purchasing power
13:30of Brazilians increases, what will they
13:31do? They start consuming more. And the
13:34expectation is precisely that the
13:36increase in economic activity provided
13:38by the tax reduction will, in the long
13:40term, compensate for the reduction in
13:42revenue that would happen in the short
13:44term. It's natural that Flávio is
13:46raising this flag because reducing the
13:48size of the public sector is a liberal
13:50agenda that Lula mentioned in the first
13:52pages of his government plan as
13:54something he wants to combat above all
13:56else. The context of this proposal is
13:59that, with the approval of the tax
14:01reform enacted during the Lula
14:02administration, we now occupy the top
14:04position worldwide for the highest VAT,
14:07reaching an average of 30%, whereas
14:09countries within the OECD currently
14:11charge an average of 19%. In other
14:14words, the burden of taxes on the
14:16population with this tax reform is
14:18higher than justifiable, especially
14:20with Brazil's attempt to align itself
14:22with the OECD. Let's move on to the
14:25third topic: industrial policy and
14:27public credit. Now it was Lula's turn
14:29again. This measure, the New Industry
14:32Brazil (NIB), is the industrial policy
14:34of this current government, right? And
14:37what Lula wants to do is deepen this
14:38measure. So, in practice, this is the
14:41government choosing strategic sectors
14:44and giving them a boost to grow. How so
14:47? This means cheaper interest rate
14:49credit through public banks like BNDES
14:51and government purchases giving
14:53preference to Brazilian companies. But
14:55it also means, for example, a
14:57requirement for local production, that
14:59is, that a portion of what is used in a
15:01project be manufactured domestically.
15:03And then, secondly, in financing alone,
15:05the NIB reached around 860 billion in
15:07investment in this mandate from 2023 to
15:092026. And in fact, this strengthens the
15:11national industry and has the potential
15:13to generate employment and increase the
15:15country's productivity. But there is a
15:18downside: when the public bank lends
15:20cheaper than the market, the treasury
15:22collects the difference. And the
15:25requirement for local production can
15:27make the project more expensive,
15:29because sometimes using a national part
15:31costs more than if we import it. Does
15:33that make sense? So, investment to reap
15:36more rewards later. Next topic,
15:38long-term investment. Lula here wants
15:41to develop a capital market so that
15:43both works and companies are financed
15:45more with private money and less with
15:47public banks. One way to do this would
15:51be by enabling infrastructure
15:52debentures, which are basically debt
15:54securities that a company issues to
15:55finance a project and that we investors
15:57can buy. So, the logic of the measure
15:58is good, right? Instead of the BNDES (
16:02Brazilian Development Bank) stepping in
16:03and financing everything at subsidized
16:05interest rates, the private market
16:06finances infrastructure. Flávio, on
16:08the other hand, tackles the same
16:10problem, but instead of creating a
16:12financing instrument, he wants to
16:13reduce the risk for investors. So the
16:16proposal is to create stable rules for
16:18up to 20 years for large projects, such
16:20as railways, power plants, and mining,
16:22so that the contract doesn't change
16:24mid-project. In Brazil, tax instability
16:27means that projects, in general,
16:28sometimes need to be canceled halfway
16:30through because they ceased to be
16:32economically viable with the new rules
16:34that emerged. So this is the kind of
16:36thing that brings security and helps a
16:38lot. And there's something else too:
16:41the measure says that if the government
16:43revokes a license that was correctly
16:44granted, the state pays for the
16:46entrepreneur's losses. So, logically,
16:48it generates costs for the state, but
16:50it's security for the investor. Does
16:52that make sense? So, one is to increase
16:54the money available for investment and
16:56the other is to increase the confidence
16:58of those who invest, leading to more
17:00investment as a consequence. Fifth
17:02topic, bureaucracy. Only Flávio here,
17:04right, with what he calls regulatory
17:07repeal and bureaucracy cutting. What's
17:09the idea behind this cutting? The idea
17:12is to review and cut obsolete
17:13regulations and simplify the lives of
17:15those who want to open and run a
17:17business. In other words, in theory,
17:20it's about someone being able to open a
17:22business faster, cheaper, and easier.
17:24But the plan doesn't specify how it
17:26would do that. Because the ease of
17:28opening a company isn't just a
17:30presidential decision. Opening a
17:32company goes through all levels:
17:33federal, state, and municipal, right?
17:35And in the first stages, which are the
17:37federal ones, those are already very
17:38fast; it only takes a few hours to
17:40create a CNPJ (Brazilian tax ID); you
17:42do that online. But the complete
17:44registration process, which involves
17:46the commercial registry, involves
17:47issuing the operating permit, that
17:49alone, to open a small business, can
17:51take around 30 to 45 days, okay? So the
17:53slow part is usually at the state and
17:54municipal levels. So the federal level
17:56can't improve much more. Oh, so what's
17:58the point? What's the point is that he
18:00can recommend new practices for states
18:02and municipalities to apply, it depends
18:03on their goodwill, but it's worth
18:05saying that it's a measure that will
18:06contribute greatly to reducing
18:07informality, right? Think about it, the
18:10excessive bureaucracy in opening and
18:12maintaining a CNPJ (Brazilian tax ID)
18:14is an impediment that keeps small
18:15merchants, street vendors, or sellers
18:17from becoming regularized. But if they
18:20don't become regularized, then they
18:21don't have access to banks, they don't
18:23have access to credit, and the growth
18:24of their businesses is limited. Great.
18:27Sixth topic, agriculture. Let's start
18:29with Lula here. Expanded harvest plan
18:31and modernization of the countryside.
18:32So, the "Plano Safra"(Harvest Plan) is
18:34a government rural credit plan with a
18:36scheme of offering interest rates
18:37cheaper than those practiced in the
18:39market. There's a lot of Lula's [
18:41government] program that does exactly
18:43the same incentive, right? Which is
18:44cheaper interest rates than the market.
18:46And in fact, this can create the effect
18:48of boosting that sector, but if you
18:50have many markets that benefit from
18:52this, the very anchoring of the basic
18:54interest rate in the economy ends up
18:55losing value, right? What good is it
18:59for the SELIC to set interest rates at
19:0113.75%if the government actually has
19:03many plans to subsidize rates for other
19:05sectors, effectively bringing them down
19:07to 6%? What does the plan want to do?
19:10It wants to bring more irrigation,
19:12which is the recovery of degraded soils
19:13, strengthening BRAPA, right? BRAPA is
19:16the Brazilian state-owned agricultural
19:18research company that develops seeds,
19:20planting techniques, soil management,
19:22and was even responsible for recovering
19:24the acidic soil of the Cerrado, making
19:26it a mega-productive center. B. So,
19:29let's go, Flávio. Flávio also wants
19:32to invest in agriculture, but he's
19:33following a completely different path.
19:36How so? Flávio wants to expand crop
19:38storage capacity, he wants to expand
19:39rural insurance, he also wants to
19:41facilitate irrigation and stimulate
19:42national fertilizer production. Because
19:44he said that today Brazil imports most
19:46of what it uses. And he doesn't specify
19:48how he's going to do this. Probably
19:50what are we talking about? Exemptions
19:52from some taxes in the sector, the
19:53creation of some more accessible credit
19:55lines, not with subsidized interest
19:56rates, right? Flávio has several
19:58measures he wants to combat, including
20:00making credit easier to obtain and get
20:03approved. So all this, in theory, would
20:05help the producer to cover some costs
20:06and would allow us to stimulate the
20:08economic growth of agriculture. These
20:10two measures here, as you can see,
20:12worsen the primary sector, but they
20:14address exactly the problem of field
20:15productivity that we saw. Furthermore,
20:18both measures can help those thousands
20:20of small producers move from manual
20:22labor to formalization and gain greater
20:24access to credit to modernize their
20:26production. Sixth topic: small
20:28businesses and entrepreneurship. Let's
20:31go, Uncle Lula. Lula wants to continue
20:33expanding credit for micro and small
20:35businesses through guarantee funds,
20:37right? How does this guarantee fund
20:38business work? Basically, the
20:41government puts money into a fund that
20:42covers part of the bank's losses if the
20:44entrepreneur defaults. If the
20:46entrepreneur defaults and doesn't pay.
20:48And then, with this lower risk, the
20:50bank naturally agrees to lend more
20:52money and also at a lower cost. So in
20:54the end, it helps the entrepreneur have
20:56greater access to credit. Now, when we
20:58look at Flávio, in my first company,
21:00what he wants is a program that
21:02provides training to new entrepreneurs
21:03through the S system and credit
21:05concessions from Caixa Econômica
21:07Federal, which would become a kind of
21:08prosperity bank. In the last video we
21:11talked about that win-win scheme, right
21:12? Those who complete government
21:14training courses and keep their
21:15business accounts up-to-date have
21:16access to lower interest rates. This
21:19combination of training and access to
21:21credit is very good in terms of
21:23encouraging entrepreneurship. And I can
21:26say, without blinking, that there's a
21:28superior measure to Lula's on the same
21:30topic. For a very simple reason. What
21:32Lula wanted to do with this credit and
21:34productivity measure for small
21:35businesses is for the bank to give more
21:37credit, because it assumes part of the
21:38cost for the entrepreneur who can't pay
21:40, probably because the business went
21:41bankrupt. Now, what Flávio is doing is
21:45training new entrepreneurs so that they
21:47increase their chances of making their
21:50business successful and not even
21:52needing bank credit. In other words, he
21:55attacks the problem at its root, which
21:57is the low qualification of
21:58entrepreneurs. Now, seventh topic here,
22:00work and employment. One from Lula, two
22:02from Flávio. Let's start with Lula. Ah
22:03, this is that measure from Lula that's
22:05hindering GDP growth, right, to review
22:06the points of labor legislation that I
22:08already mentioned. So, I'll skip ahead
22:09here. But the curious thing is that
22:12Flávio defends practically the
22:13opposite. Why? Because Flávio defends
22:17negotiated agreements over legislation,
22:19which is when the company and the
22:20worker can directly agree on working
22:22conditions, as long as, of course, it's
22:24within the law, instead of being forced
22:25to follow a single rule. This isn't new
22:28, okay? This has existed since the 2017
22:31labor reform, and Flávio wants to
22:33protect this point. In other words,
22:36it's not a new measure, it's more about
22:38maintaining the flexibility for the
22:40employee and the employer to define
22:42working hours within the limits of the
22:44Constitution, agree on time banks,
22:46lunch breaks, among other things. And
22:49on these points, Flávio also has a
22:50second measure, which is to reduce the
22:52cost of labor. In this case, he means
22:54reducing the cost of labor with a
22:55formal employment contract. So, in fact
22:57, today a CLT (Consolidation of Labor
22:59Laws) employee can cost the company
23:01almost twice as much as their net
23:02salary. And the idea here is to have
23:05contracts with lower charges for young
23:07people aged 18 to 24 in their first job
23:09and for those over 50 who have been
23:11unemployed for at least a year. This
23:14would encourage the hiring of young
23:15people and older people who are having
23:17difficulty re-entering the job market.
23:19But of course, there's an elephant in
23:20the room here, right? A large part of
23:22the cost that employers have with
23:23workers comes from the social security
23:25contributions. So, Flávio doesn't say
23:27where he wants to reduce the cost, but
23:29if it's from the NSS, then that means
23:30reducing the revenue of the social
23:32security system, which is already
23:33running in the red and the deficit
23:35grows every year. I personally think
23:36that's not even the problem, okay? It's
23:39not about reducing social security
23:40revenue, because in the current format,
23:42where the economically active
23:43population supports disabled elderly
23:45people and the age pyramid is inverting
23:46—that is, there are increasingly more
23:48disabled elderly people to support than
23:50working people—man, at some point
23:51this whole thing is going to collapse.
23:54So this measure would only anticipate
23:57the inevitable. This will have to be
23:59reviewed at some point. Education and
24:01qualification, this is the eighth theme
24:02. Lula has two measures here. The first
24:06is to expand professional qualification
24:08through a platform with artificial
24:10intelligence that brings together job
24:12openings, courses, and career guidance,
24:14like a government LinkedIn. The second
24:17measure is to guarantee quality
24:19internet in schools, which according to
24:21the plan, 75%of schools already have,
24:24right? And on top of that, also bring
24:26fiber optics to the 11%of
24:27municipalities that still don't have it
24:29and expand 5G in rural areas. This
24:31certainly provides more opportunities
24:33in the long term for students. Good.
24:36Flávio also has two here. This first
24:38one, on technical education and
24:39qualification, is a partnership measure
24:41with companies. How so? So basically,
24:43it's so that those who train
24:45professionals are communicating
24:46directly with those who hire them. And
24:49in theory, this helps ensure that the
24:50workforce is adequate to the real
24:52demands of the market. In this same
24:54vein, Flávio also discusses creating
24:56the Escola Brasil por Elas, a free
24:58training program for women. He does not
25:00describe the details of how it would
25:02work, only that it would be a program
25:03integrated with S System courses and
25:05public-private partners. And this
25:07second measure from Flávio is to
25:09expand full-time daycare. And where
25:12there is a lack of public daycare spots
25:13, a voucher would be given to the
25:15family to enroll the child in a private
25:17accredited daycare. The reasoning here
25:19is that with guaranteed daycare, more
25:21mothers can work, more mothers can help
25:23the economy grow. So, that makes a lot
25:25of sense too. Ninth theme, technology
25:27and artificial intelligence. The
25:29proposal for both here is practically
25:30the same, okay? Basically, Lula wants
25:33to foster the cloud data center chain
25:35in Brazil, develop supercomputers, and
25:37accelerate the use of A in agriculture,
25:39healthcare, and the financial sector,
25:40but with conditions, right? Anyone
25:43wanting to install a data center here
25:45will have to use a portion of the
25:47construction chain for that data center
25:49, including reserving a portion of the
25:51data center's capacity for the
25:53Brazilian market, in addition to
25:54complying with certain environmental
25:56requirements, such as using renewable
25:58energy. Flávio wants to strengthen
26:02technology parks, incubators, and
26:04startups, bring companies closer to
26:06universities, and use government
26:08purchases to stimulate innovation in
26:10apps. How so? Basically, instead of
26:13giving money to new companies that
26:15emerge, he would buy their products or
26:17services directly. But the government
26:19is already the largest buyer of
26:20products and services from private
26:22companies in Brazil, okay? And there's
26:24a very well-known process for this to
26:27happen, called bidding. Bidding isn't
26:29necessarily a good thing, though, okay?
26:30Because in bidding processes, the
26:32winner is whoever sells the cheapest,
26:34and you know that whoever sells the
26:36cheapest is rarely the one with the
26:38best product or the most innovative. So
26:41, what about Flávio's proposal, man?
26:43Circumventing the bidding process,
26:44right? So that these technology
26:46companies can somehow have a direct
26:48path to sell to the government. He just
26:50doesn't say how that would work. Our
26:52topic is critical minerals. And this
26:54topic also has a lot of consensus
26:55between the two candidates. Both of
26:57them want to stop exporting raw ore to
26:59start processing that ore here in the
27:00country instead. For exactly the reason
27:02I told you at the beginning of the
27:03video, right? This type of critical
27:05mineral is used in batteries,
27:06electronics, and in the energy
27:08transition, like rare earths. And
27:09Brazil has the second largest reserve
27:11of rare earths in the world, second
27:12only to China. Remember I told you
27:14about the example of the mineral, the
27:15microchip? Man, that's it. Instead of
27:17selling the ore abroad and then paying
27:19100 times more to import the chip made
27:21from that ore, the idea is for us to
27:23produce it here and keep a larger share
27:25of the added value. Next topic,
27:27electricity. So, Lula wants to continue
27:29the massive investments in transmission
27:31lines, invest in batteries to store
27:33energy, and expand renewable energy
27:35sources. He said that during his term,
27:3731 MW entered the system, which is
27:40equivalent to two Itaipu dams. And he
27:42wants to use the Northeast as the stage
27:44for this growth, because the Northeast
27:46concentrates 70%of Brazil's wind and
27:48solar power generation. He wants to
27:50transform the Northeast into a hub for
27:52industries that consume a lot of energy
27:54, such as green steelmaking,
27:56fertilizers, and low-carbon hydrogen.
27:58Since most of this investment is made
28:00by private companies that win the
28:02auctions, this doesn't have a direct
28:04impact on public finances, which is
28:06good. Flávio, on the other hand, goes
28:08by price. Flávio wants to reduce taxes
28:10on energy and fuel and gradually reduce
28:12the CDE, which is a charge that comes
28:14in your electricity bill to fund
28:16subsidies to the electricity sector. Oh
28:18, how crazy is that? We pay electricity
28:20bills to fund a subsidy for the
28:22electricity sector. Wouldn't it be
28:24easier to simply not have to pay this
28:26thing and also not have the subsidy, so
28:28that things even out? Anyway, it's that
28:30game of moles, right, that I talked
28:32about in the video above about what the
28:34next president should do with Brazil.
28:36But anyway, cheaper energy reduces the
28:38production cost of almost everything.
28:40So it stimulates GDP, but reduces
28:42revenue, and a large part of these
28:43taxes is state-level, like the SMS. For
28:46this to work, it will also depend on
28:49the governors. In other words, Lula
28:51wants to increase the energy supply,
28:53and Flávio wants to lower the price by
28:55changing the tax. Both are very
28:58relevant and even complementary, so
29:00that the next candidate has the
29:01humility to learn from the other's plan
29:03. Let's talk about the environment here
29:05. Lula wants to continue the ecological
29:08transformation plan, which basically
29:10uses financial instruments to attract
29:12private money to sustainable projects.
29:15According to Lula's government plan,
29:17Brazil raised billions of reais with
29:19green bonds, and a program called
29:21Ecoinvest mobilized more than 141
29:22billion in private investment. And on
29:25top of that, he also wants to regulate
29:27the carbon market. Flávio, on the
29:29other hand, wants to change
29:30environmental licensing; he wants
29:32clearer rules, defined deadlines, and
29:34if the environmental agency doesn't
29:36respond within the deadline, the
29:38license is granted automatically. This
29:41is very good because today, projects
29:43are actually stalled for years waiting
29:45for licenses. So it greatly accelerates
29:47investment. Notice that both talk about
29:49the environment, but they have
29:50different objectives. Lula wants to use
29:52the environment as an investment
29:54opportunity. Flávio wants
29:55environmental regulations to be less of
29:57an obstacle to investment. So this
29:59shows the difference between Lula
30:01seeing the State as the main driver of
30:03economic growth and Flávio living up
30:04to the name of his party, which is a
30:06liberal party, which doesn't simply
30:07provide the right incentives for the
30:09market itself to develop the country.
30:12The 13th point, this one is good,
30:14foreign trade. What Lula wants is to
30:16consolidate Mercosur as the main
30:18platform for integrating economic
30:20activity in South America so that
30:22countries prioritize trading with each
30:24other. And part of that is also
30:26creating a South American energy
30:28integration market and diversifying
30:30trading partners. Flávio has two
30:32measures, this one of opening up trade
30:35so that we have more ease in importing
30:37foreign products, right? Brazilians
30:39have more access to machinery,
30:41technology, inputs, uh, products with
30:43higher added value, which today are
30:45very expensive and very difficult for
30:47us to increase our production. And if
30:49you've been following me for a while
30:50and you saw the video where I talked
30:52about what the next leader should
30:53prioritize, well, I talked exactly
30:55about this. I think it's a great move
30:56because importing cheap technology
30:58makes us produce more and also allows
31:00us to learn how the technology works,
31:02in case we want to replicate it.
31:03Remember I said that Americans produce
31:05more because they have more machines?
31:06So, reducing import taxes on some
31:08foreign products would help a lot with
31:10that. Flávio's second measure is to
31:12join the OECD and eliminate the IOF tax
31:14on foreign exchange. Let's go. The OECD
31:16is a group that mainly brings together
31:18developed countries, and there are
31:19governance and transparent standards in
31:21the management of these countries, and
31:23there is no such thing as federal
31:24entities in this country. And to join,
31:26we need to gradually eliminate the IOF
31:28tax on foreign exchange. Oh, what good
31:29news! But then there's that tax you pay
31:32when you buy dollars, or use your card
31:34abroad. Man, that greatly facilitates
31:36foreign investment, but it worsens
31:38public finances because the government
31:40loses that revenue. So, let's speak
31:43strictly personally now, okay? I
31:45personally think this is great,
31:47especially for those participating in
31:49the "Open Portfolio" classes, which are
31:51closed Zoom calls where I show my
31:52portfolio and investment strategy.
31:54Because every time we send money to
31:56invest abroad, it's 1.1%in import
31:58duties. If you want to travel, you
32:01won't invest, but you'll spend the
32:02money, you pay 3.5%, and if you want to
32:04bring the money back, it's 0.38%in
32:06import duties. So, eliminating these
32:09specific duties does not eliminate the
32:14necessity for you to know how to avoid
32:16that 30%tax on the dividends we receive
32:18when we decide to purchase an American
32:20asset. We buy a stock, an ETF, it
32:22distributes dividends to us, and we pay
32:2430%on what we earn. That's crazy. But
32:26you also pay 40%of the value of your
32:28assets if you die and leave your assets
32:30to your children. You might think: "Man
32:32, I can't afford to have a global
32:33portfolio." So, it is not because I
32:35display my investment portfolio on
32:37Carteira Aberta, investing my own money
32:39in practice and showing you how you can
32:40legally invest abroad to protect
32:42yourself against the devaluation of the
32:44real, while paying 0%tax on dividends
32:45from American assets you hold and 0%
32:47inheritance tax, that your children
32:49will be able to receive your entire
32:50estate in its entirety without any of
32:52the complications typically involved in
32:54the process. You don't give up anything
32:56by doing this. Anyone who doesn't know
32:57how to invest this way is crazy,
32:59they're paying unnecessary taxes to the
33:00United States. So I'm leaving the link
33:02below for you to sign up, because the
33:04next closed Zoom call is coming soon,
33:06okay? And it's a negligible price that
33:08will greatly benefit your life as an
33:09investor. Let's move on to the last
33:11topic, then. Last topic, housing. Only
33:13Flávio Bolsonaro was here. Why?
33:15Because he wants to resume the Casa
33:17Verde e Amarela program with a goal of
33:202.5 million homes and lower interest
33:22rates. But you're a smart person, you
33:23must have noticed that the name is very
33:24similar to "Minha Casa e Minha Vida"(My
33:26House, My Life), right? Because it is
33:28literally the same program; it was
33:29called Casa Verde e Amarela back in
33:31Jair Bolsonaro's time. Then Lula was
33:33elected, it went back to being "Minha
33:35Casa e Minha Vida," and now Flávio
33:36wants it to be "Minha Casa Amarela"(My
33:37Yellow House) again. It's basically a
33:39name dispute, okay? But it's a relevant
33:41measure, because building houses boosts
33:42the construction industry, employs many
33:44people, stimulates GDP and everything
33:46else, but naturally, subsidizing these
33:47works, right, for low-income families,
33:49has a cost for the government. So,
33:52Brenão, after two videos analyzing
33:53measures, several political videos you
33:55released on the channel, what's the
33:56verdict? Who did better here? Who are
33:59you going to vote for? Look, let me
34:00tell you something. I believe that
34:02economic liberalism is the best path
34:03for Brazil. Which doesn't mean I'm any
34:06political source and I'm clapping for
34:08any nonsense these guys say. So, man,
34:11zero attachment to either of them. I
34:13didn't vote for either candidate in the
34:14first round. Hey, Brenão, but don't
34:17you think there are more important
34:18things than the economy that should be
34:20taken into consideration? Man,
34:22absolutely, right? There are many
34:24important things, but I can't look at
34:26those things and say they're more
34:27important than the economy. Because
34:29think about it, the economic health of
34:31a country is what makes social programs
34:33viable, it's what makes tax increases
34:34possible, it's what makes improvements
34:36in education, health, and security
34:38possible. If the economy is well
34:40managed, brother, then the debate
34:42becomes whether we'll have the welfare
34:44state of Norway or the low-tax state of
34:47Switzerland. But today we can't achieve
34:50either. Let's be realistic here. And
34:52then the debate of, oh, the
34:53conservative is right, so, oh, the
34:55progressive is better. This kind of
34:57fight, you know, about other issues. To
34:58me, it's the same as you talking to
35:00your friend about buying an IAT when
35:02your income is 3,000 a month and your
35:04credit card bill is four. If you're
35:05going to buy IAT, man, Dilma already
35:07gave the warning, everyone's going to
35:08lose. And it's not that I don't have
35:09opinions outside of economics, it's not
35:10that I don't have other convictions,
35:11right? I have many. I just think it's
35:14fair to spare you them, because, in the
35:16same way that I wouldn't want to see an
35:19astrologer working on a NASA rocket, or
35:21I wouldn't want to see a child doing
35:23structural calculations for a building,
35:25man, I'm not going to bother you with
35:27my opinions on things I haven't studied
35:29much about. Everyone has the right to
35:31an opinion because of freedom of
35:32expression, okay? You can say whatever
35:34you want, you can post, you can share,
35:36man, great, do whatever you want. But I
35:37need to be realistic here. Some
35:39opinions are better grounded than
35:41others. And I make videos on these
35:44topics because that's where I believe I
35:46can help you with something about
35:48finance, investments, economics,
35:49business. Otherwise, it's not my area,
35:52brother. If you want to know about LGBT
35:55issues, abortion, things that are
35:56extremely sensitive, man, it's not my
35:59area. What I want to do is help you
36:01invest in the United States without
36:02paying dividend tax through an
36:04open-ended portfolio. So, if you're
36:06interested in learning this, great,
36:07I'll be happy to teach you. Just click
36:09here and sign up for the next class,
36:11which is coming soon.

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