Lucid Looking at BANKRUPTCY Options ⚠️ is the RUMOR REAL │ Lucid Stock Analysis — Transcript

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1. 0:00What's going on? Welcome back to the
2. 0:01channel. So, today we're going to talk
3. 0:02to you about Lucid. I want to go over
4. 0:05what just came out associated to Lucid
5. 0:08and if there is any validity or not.
6. 0:11Before I get into any of that, make sure
7. 0:12you hit that thumbs up and with that,
8. 0:14let's get right to it. So, Lucid is
9. 0:16currently down 41.7%.
10. 0:18You are reading that correctly. In fact,
11. 0:21it is halted right now, the second halt
12. 0:23for the day.
13. 0:25Um, second one being due to volatility,
14. 0:27but absolutely insane day. There's a lot
15. 0:30of volume, about 85 million shares being
16. 0:32traded. High today of 576,
17. 0:36low so far of 237. So, there's a crazy
18. 0:41dip and I feel like a lot of people are
19. 0:42very hesitant about buying the dip
20. 0:45because of kind of the rumors around it
21. 0:48and surrounding it. And so, I'll kind of
22. 0:50go over some of the macro data and
23. 0:52whatever else, but I want to get right
24. 0:54to the rumor and that is bankruptcy. And
25. 0:58we already know Afonso very bearish on
26. 1:01Lucid and has been for a while now, but
27. 1:04oddly enough, I always like to give him
28. 1:06credit when credit is due,
29. 1:08he somehow knows his stuff. I got to
30. 1:10give him that. Somehow he has these
31. 1:12random connections with Rivian, Neo,
32. 1:15Lucid. He somehow knows the in for EVs.
33. 1:19And it looks like they did or Lucid's
34. 1:23kind of looking at options. So, chapter
35. 1:2611 or whatever else. And so, I just
36. 1:30wanted to kind of break it down. Uh, the
37. 1:32only reason why Lucid would be looking
38. 1:34at this if the PIF is pulling out or
39. 1:39kind of have told them that they're not
40. 1:41going to be paying anymore. Because in
41. 1:43order for a company to file a file
42. 1:46chapter 11,
43. 1:47the creditors itself would have to kind
44. 1:50of bring them to that, right? Uh, and
45. 1:53this is kind of I know I don't really
46. 1:54talk about my personal job and whatever
47. 1:57else, but
48. 1:58this is kind of my field of extra
49. 2:00of expertise. And so, ultimately, the
50. 2:04only creditor, because of now Lucid
51. 2:06hitting up that line of credit, is
52. 2:08technically the PIF, right? And so,
53. 2:12ultimately, when it comes down to it,
54. 2:14the PIF would have to be prompting this
55. 2:17Chapter 11 if
56. 2:19true. So, there's a lot of ifs when it
57. 2:22comes down to this. And then I know a
58. 2:24lot of bears are jumping up and down for
59. 2:27joy because they've been saying
60. 2:29bankruptcy 2026, bankruptcy 2027. And I
61. 2:34don't know. Uh so, I know, and I think
62. 2:36we can all agree that Lucid hasn't been
63. 2:39the best uh and whatever else, but
64. 2:43realistically, I think this rumor does
65. 2:45not make sense. If they had several
66. 2:48other creditors, then yes, I would give
67. 2:51some validity to this. But, if we even
68. 2:54look at their earnings and whatever, uh
69. 2:57anything else, they don't have debt.
70. 3:00Like, they have those 2030
71. 3:03uh notes, the convertible notes. They
72. 3:06also have just the line of credit, but
73. 3:09the only creditor in both of those
74. 3:10scenarios is the PIF. So,
75. 3:13unless things really did completely
76. 3:15deteriorate with the PIF,
77. 3:19there's no validity to this. Unless
78. 3:21maybe Silvio came on the scene and said,
79. 3:23"Hey, you know what? We're done unpaying
80. 3:26all this crap." Because
81. 3:28I always like to give you the good, the
82. 3:29bad, and the ugly. And as I've
83. 3:30mentioned, the PIF has put themselves in
84. 3:33a position that it's a win-win for them.
85. 3:35Lucid goes down, they win. Lucid goes
86. 3:38higher, they win. So, maybe Silvio kind
87. 3:41of ruffles some feathers, possibly. And
88. 3:44maybe this is where kind of they're
89. 3:46looking at this option. So, definitely a
90. 3:49lot of crazy stuff. And yeah, it's
91. 3:53really unfortunate. I know a lot of
92. 3:54people from the comments in my videos,
93. 3:58this is your one and only stock in your
94. 4:00portfolio. So, days like this,
95. 4:02absolutely insane and detrimental to
96. 4:08kind of your mental health and
97. 4:09everything. So, let me know your kind of
98. 4:11viewpoint on that and if there is any
99. 4:14true validity based on this or or
100. 4:16whatever else. This does kind of remind
101. 4:19me of way back in I think it was 2023
102. 4:22when rumors of Lucid going private, that
103. 4:24caused the stock price to go up like
104. 4:2680%. Ultimately, there was no validity
105. 4:29to that. It's kind of just went back to
106. 4:31where it was. So, possibly that might
107. 4:33happen as well with Lucid. So,
108. 4:35I don't want to say that this is a
109. 4:37buying opportunity
110. 4:38only because there's so much grayness,
111. 4:42right? So, let me know your thoughts on
112. 4:44that. But, aside from the crappy rumor,
113. 4:47the market's loving the data that came
114. 4:49out. So, ADP came in at 19.7.
115. 4:53We did have CPI a lot better than the
116. 4:56forecast and this is exactly what we
117. 4:58wanted to see because then that means
118. 5:00the likelihood of a rate hike is going
119. 5:03to diminish. So, right now we do have a
120. 5:0627.8% likelihood of a 25 basis point
121. 5:10hike by January and this has gone down
122. 5:13quite a lot. So, at the end of the day,
123. 5:15market's loving this.
124. 5:17And then we also do have a couple Fed
125. 5:19speakers and so far I don't think
126. 5:21anything speculative has really come
127. 5:23out. But, let me know your kind of
128. 5:25viewpoint on that. If I was Silvio, I
129. 5:29personally would do an interview ASAP if
130. 5:34this is fake and quash it. So, hopefully
131. 5:37that does happen.
132. 5:39So, I guess we'll know ultimately in the
133. 5:40next 24 hours if there is some truth to
134. 5:43this or not depending on if Silvio steps
135. 5:45up and and whatever else.
136. 5:48As far as shorts, I know a lot of people
137. 5:49will be kind of blaming shorts for all
138. 5:51this. They're only increasing 190,000
139. 5:54shares. And given the fact that there
140. 5:56was 80-something million shares being
141. 5:58traded before the halt, like
142. 6:00shorts aren't the problem today
143. 6:02whatsoever. But 36.3% of the free
144. 6:05float's being shorted works to be 62
145. 6:07million shares overall being shorted.
146. 6:09Options net premium's going down by 4.9
147. 6:13million. So, that really does signal
148. 6:15that there's actually some true fear and
149. 6:19hedging that Lucid's going to go down.
150. 6:21So, definitely
151. 6:23a lot of this data isn't the greatest.
152. 6:26There's no real point talking about
153. 6:28this, but even bulls are now assuming
154. 6:30that only $3 is pretty much on the
155. 6:32table. So, bulls definitely have fully
156. 6:34given up. On the secondary market, we do
157. 6:37have some transactions, some buying the
158. 6:39dip kind of occurring. So, anything with
159. 6:41the ask is a buy, anything with a bid is
160. 6:44a sell. Interestingly enough, this is
161. 6:46it. So, most of the volume is actually
162. 6:48coming from algorithmic trading, not
163. 6:50from institutions. Even on the dark
164. 6:53pool, only four transactions. So, all of
165. 6:55this price action is kind of AI feeding
166. 7:00off of this. So, this is kind of the
167. 7:03million-dollar question. Do you believe
168. 7:05this or not? That's ultimately what's
169. 7:07going to come down to, right? And I
170. 7:10think in theory you can make some pretty
171. 7:11good money swing trading it once it does
172. 7:13open. So, if it does have a dip to,
173. 7:15let's say, 250 or something like that, I
174. 7:17feel like that would be a pretty good uh
175. 7:20buying opportunity in my opinion, of
176. 7:22course. That's just would be for a quick
177. 7:24swing trade, but yeah, this is a crazy
178. 7:27rumor, and I don't think anyone's uh
179. 7:30going to sleep well tonight whatsoever.
180. 7:32But ultimately, as you can kind of see,
181. 7:35we are completely broken uh below all
182. 7:38the key pivotal moving averages uh
183. 7:40whatsoever. Even moving over to the 15,
184. 7:42like everything is just bad. So, uh if
185. 7:47there is any bears out there, I'm sure
186. 7:49our bearish analysts, I'm sure they will
187. 7:52be pouncing all over Lucid and amending
188. 7:55their kind of estimates and stuff like
189. 7:57that. We recently did have RBC, and that
190. 8:00was changing it from 10 to 7, so
191. 8:02downgrading, but
192. 8:04yeah, looks like the only bull is kind
193. 8:07of Morgan or not bull, but the only
194. 8:09accurate one
195. 8:10is Morgan Stanley. And as I mentioned, I
196. 8:12always like to give credit when credit
197. 8:14is due, and I've been covering Lucid for
198. 8:16a while, and back in the day, like
199. 8:20everyone was just in euphoria thinking
200. 8:22that Lucid was going to be the next
201. 8:23Tesla, but we did have Adam Jonas of
202. 8:27Morgan Stanley. It's recently switched
203. 8:29to some other individual, but previously
204. 8:31it was Adam Jonas, and he called out
205. 8:33Lucid. And honestly, he was accurate,
206. 8:37like on point. I know a lot of people
207. 8:39liked to hate on him, but he knew his
208. 8:42stuff. And looks like Morgan Stanley
209. 8:44still kind of knowing where Lucid is
210. 8:47going. So, let me know your thoughts on
211. 8:49kind of everything that's happening. Are
212. 8:51you buying the dip, or are you just
213. 8:54saying kind of peace out? I already know
214. 8:56leading into kind of where we are at
215. 8:59right now, like a lot of people just
216. 9:01wanted Lucid to spike just to get the
217. 9:03hell out of dodge. So, what's your kind
218. 9:05of viewpoint? One final thing, pop over
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224. 9:15appreciate all of you watching.