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Long Gold And Short Semis Into Year-End? | Weekly Roundup — Transcript

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0:00Nothing said on Ford guidance is a
0:02recommendation to buy or sell any
0:03investments or products.
0:11All right, what's going on everybody?
0:12Welcome back to another roundup edition
0:14of Forward Guidance special edition cuz
0:18we got the man Tony Greer back in the
0:20house. Tony, always so fun to have you.
0:21I was saying right before we recorded
0:23that it seems like anytime we book in to
0:25come in, markets start falling apart.
0:27you were I think the last time we really
0:29did this was in was in last March. Um
0:31and marketers are were were falling
0:33apart and here you are again and the
0:35cues are down over five six%. Great to
0:37have you dude.
0:38>> Yeah it's great to be here man. Luckily,
0:40we were a little bit ahead of this one
0:41in the semiconductor space. But, you
0:44know, I to to even think that I had any
0:46clue what was going to happen in the
0:47last two days, you know, the up and back
0:50and the violent reversals, man, nobody
0:53sees this coming. You know, there's not
0:55really headline specific driven. We're
0:58just digesting the sort of
1:01>> pressure release of having the midterms
1:04behind us, you know, and getting the
1:05results we knew were coming.
1:08So, there's obviously a lot to it, man.
1:10You guys start wherever you want.
1:12>> Yeah. Well, uh, why don't we actually
1:14talk about your TG conference first? Um,
1:18because you're running that again, you
1:19know, give you give you the limelight a
1:21bit because I don't know, I'll be
1:22honest, that was like one of my favorite
1:23conferences I've ever been to last year
1:25and you're doing it again. We're going
1:26to be going again in February. But yeah,
1:27tell us a bit about it before we get
1:29into the thick of it. I'm so excited,
1:31Felix, because you know how smoothly it
1:32went last year and I actually had a
1:34notepad of all the kinks that I couldn't
1:36wait to work out and improve on and like
1:39we kind of got all that stuff done. I'm
1:42thrilled. I got Michael Howell. I'm
1:43planning his trip over from London now,
1:46you know, like some new blood in there.
1:48I'm psyched to have Paulo MRO there, you
1:51know, a really popular face on Thin Twit
1:53and Dave Colum and guys that are just
1:56going to, you know, just open up
1:58people's minds, you know what I mean?
1:59And and then, you know, we've got the
2:01we've got the fun pattern down in the
2:03background, you know, like we've got the
2:05vibe in Nashville. We've got a lot of
2:07special stuff that we're going to add to
2:09this conference that's going to be
2:10better than last year. And so, and we've
2:13sold a lot of tickets already. We're
2:15probably halfway full by now, which is
2:17awesome, you know. Um, so I can't wait,
2:20man. I can't wait to have you guys back.
2:21I'm honored that you're making the trip
2:23down again. Um, but I think that you'll
2:25be pleasantly surprised again like you
2:27were last year. This is going to be a
2:28great great crew. And then, you know,
2:30the returnees, man, you know, Grant
2:32Williams, Johnston, JD, Jared Dillian,
2:35you know, Duneberg. I mean, we got a
2:38great crew. The lineup is awesome.
2:41>> That'll be a good time, man. That was
2:42that was a blast last year. as usual.
2:44You know what I mean? I'm just pissed
2:46that we didn't come away with it with
2:47the obvious signal to sell gold,
2:50>> you know? Like we were all busy. Yeah.
2:52>> We were all so busy arm in- arm hugging
2:55each other with gold at 5,500 that we
2:57forgot to make sales, you know.
2:59>> Yeah, that'll that'll happen. That we're
3:02we're definitely going to make sure to
3:04now Now it's it's like you're playing
3:06mind games like do you contra the contra
3:08now? cuz now what one of the best things
3:11last year was just the quality of the
3:13people in your community that were there
3:14and I think you know obviously you come
3:16away with a lot from the speakers and
3:19everything you learn and hear there but
3:21but just the conversations you're having
3:22at lunch and breakfast and the side
3:24events was
3:25>> was fantastic. I was really impressed.
3:27So yeah, they're great people. We we had
3:30great people come out for this and you
3:31don't realize that they uh you know they
3:33all have great stories too, you know,
3:36and you go and you start hearing and and
3:37like I find myself digging into you know
3:40people's backgrounds be like wait a
3:42minute how did you wind up doing that
3:43you know like where did you where were
3:44you born you know and I so that just the
3:47organic conversations and networking you
3:50know make it worth the trip. I really
3:51do. I I'm a firm believer that the
3:54in-person experience is the new luxury
3:56item, you know, and it's only getting
3:58even more that way. And, you know, I was
4:00just down in Nashville for JD's
4:02conference and that plate that was
4:04packed. There wasn't room for another
4:06ass in another seat. And I mean, just
4:09same thing, you know, just great
4:10communal get together with like, you
4:13know, like-minded people trying to
4:14figure the world out. So, we can't ask
4:16for much more than that, can we?
4:18>> Nope. Get your tickets everybody. We'll
4:20put the link in the in the show.
4:22>> Thank you for that, guys. I really
4:23appreciate that.
4:25>> Of course, man. Happy to help some good
4:26people and and be there as well. So,
4:28it'll be fun.
4:29>> Um, all right, guys. No shortage of
4:31stuff to talk about. Markets are falling
4:33apart. Um, we had the midterms.
4:35Obviously, it's been a clearing event.
4:37Looks like a lot of hedges were rolling
4:39off yesterday and now the real move is
4:41getting started. Um, how are you guys
4:44thinking about it? Who wants to take it
4:45first? if you te
4:48>> Yeah. I mean, I like election stuff and
4:51a lot of people uh you know, they they
4:55don't want to mix politics and markets,
4:57but I think in this day and age, you
4:58have to more than ever. Um and we've
5:01seen that with the Trump presidency in
5:03spectacular fashion, I think. But, um
5:06so, so I I was expecting the blue the
5:08blue sweep, not quite necessarily to
5:11this this extent. Um, and the thing is
5:15is as always with markets, you can get
5:17things right and like there can be moves
5:19that you just don't even see coming. But
5:22the takeaway I had from yesterday's
5:24price action that I was writing to
5:26people was the so much of what I was
5:29seeing across the board told me there
5:32was a lot of positioning things in
5:33there. So you had like solar, which is
5:35obviously a dem trade up huge, you know,
5:37you had
5:38>> you had these huge rallies and things.
5:40You had huge short coverings, huge short
5:42squeezes, things that were crowded get
5:44smoked.
5:45>> But what I found myself thinking is like
5:49the indices were just trading right back
5:51into trend. You know, the the things
5:54that you'd expect to move with them kind
5:56of moved, but a lot of other stuff did
5:58too. And I didn't read too strongly into
6:01it. And then, you know, that you had the
6:03onslaught of the Iran stuff and there
6:05was just so much noise. Uh so I think
6:08like one of the funniest analoges is
6:11that if you two actually one the last
6:14Trump midterms 2018 uh this exact thing
6:17happened the S&P puked from day after
6:21midterms all the way to late December
6:23and it was like almost exactly the same
6:25thing that time he actually kept the
6:27Senate lost the house but kept the
6:29Senate um which which was you know a big
6:32L this year and the other one was if you
6:35flip the midterm
6:37uh election seasonality charts upside
6:40down and invert them.
6:42>> You know, the same charts that everyone
6:43was looking at this year and saying,
6:44"Well, why why isn't this working? The
6:45market completely defying normal midterm
6:47years." If you flip those, they all
6:49peaked early October,
6:52down, bounced down again, and basically
6:55into year end. So, my my idea there that
6:58we wrote about was this the the
7:01Democratic victory of some extent was
7:04was known. I mean that Trump's the most
7:07unfavorable president ever. And so
7:09really what the midterms represent are
7:12just the start of the uncertainty. What
7:14what's going to happen with data centers
7:15in Texas under the blue governor? What's
7:17going to happen with you know all the AI
7:20trade and capback spending and is there
7:22going to be a chip glut if all of a
7:24sudden there's a moratorium in 40 states
7:26against like there's just so much
7:28uncertainty you don't you can't price in
7:30in a day. And so for me, that's the
7:31biggest takeaway is like
7:33>> take whatever I think I know and
7:34discount it by probably 50% because
7:37we're probably gonna have a a
7:40um government shutdown threats and whole
7:43scramble again in a few months too. So
7:45there's a lot of weird [ __ ] to to
7:46contend with.
7:48>> Yeah.
7:49>> Yeah, there is. Man, you know, I'm
7:51trying to operate from a position of the
7:53bond market low is in in October, right?
7:57And I feel like I see a lot of response
7:59to that in the markets, but it's running
8:02into some headwinds also,
8:04>> right? Like the response to the low
8:06being in the bond market and the idea of
8:09being able to think about rates being at
8:12least peaked and maybe heading a little
8:14bit lower from here at some point is
8:17kind of predicated on the oil market as
8:19well, you know. So that that that twist
8:21in it is very difficult. But what we saw
8:23obviously like the the the messaging to
8:26me was that you know the the things that
8:28are appreciating lower rates are do want
8:31to rally like retail you know um if you
8:36you know um what was I going to say
8:38financials things like that financials
8:40quietly make a new all-time high
8:42yesterday right I'm sure they're off
8:44today in this complete slide but you
8:46know the equal weight S&P makes a new
8:48all-time high financials make a new
8:50all-time high you know you have three
8:52sigma rallies yesterday across
8:54transports, airlines, a lot of it gets
8:56reversed today. Um, but I'm trying to
9:00decide, you know, it's hard to see
9:01through the smoke screen of trying to
9:04call peace in Iran. And, you know, the
9:06idea that oil is going to go down 10 or
9:08$20 from here. Um, and I think if that
9:12does happen, that would be unbelievable
9:13for the markets. That'll be, you know,
9:15industrials will be bid only for a
9:16little while, and that'll be exciting.
9:18The miners will all come back to life
9:20and things like that.
9:21Um, but I do, you know, I think that
9:23there are some really high power trades
9:26to pursue from now to the end of the
9:28year. Like I feel like we are just
9:30finding a tradable direction this year,
9:34you know, like there have been so
9:35there's been such a crossfire. We came
9:37into the year and the you know the
9:39debasement trade was firing and then oil
9:42services took off when we nabbed Maduro
9:44and then semiconductors took off in
9:46April and went up 75% into SpaceX and
9:50then SpaceX capped the whole semi rally
9:53and then we had the peace talk you know
9:55like oil is down to $70 now we had that
9:58rally and it's like man like none of
10:00that was real you know like all all of
10:02that was all kind of head fakes in
10:03different directions and I feel like now
10:06with semis is backing off, oil holding
10:08its ground, gold holding above 4K. It's
10:12like, okay, those are the trades that I
10:14want to pursue. you know, I think semi,
10:16you know, the bubble, I've been talking
10:18about it and I finally made some money
10:20today on it with a big, you know, down
10:21move being short, but that chart just
10:25started to come undone, you know, and if
10:27this is going to be a real, you know,
10:29and we've got anthropic ahead a couple
10:31of weeks away from this now, you know,
10:33like
10:33>> they could be heaving this into a NASDAQ
10:36that's 5 10% lower from here
10:39>> by then or more,
10:41>> you know. So, so now how is that going
10:42to play in, right? like like you know
10:45you get so used to the idea of okay I'll
10:48wait until mid November to short things
10:50because anthropic is going to mark a
10:52sell the fact and it's like oh no we're
10:55November 6th and we're coming apart now
10:56or fifth we're coming apart now you know
10:58and it's like man this is really tough
11:00to wrestle with I think in the end we're
11:02going to learn though that natural
11:03resources and commodities are going to
11:05live through this and tech is just going
11:07to have to repric because it got so far
11:10over its skis so I'm kind of looking for
11:12that broadly speaking speaking to morph
11:15into the end of the year. You know, I
11:17can get excited about gold miners when
11:20number one, gold miners fill all of the
11:22gaps from the breakout on the way out to
11:2575. Fill them all the way down to 75 and
11:28then we get that little dip into 3950s,
11:323,800 in gold and right back to 40 4,100
11:36bid. That's a serious response to me.
11:40And that's the kind of dip that bottoms
11:42are often made of where you make a new
11:44low in a new, you know, new range low.
11:47There's no followth through seller and
11:49all of a sudden things start creeping
11:51back up into the range. Next thing you
11:53know, we've got liberals in charge
11:55again. And I think the gold market wants
11:57to say, "Look, if they're in charge
11:58again, that the basement trade is back
11:59on. We don't care what's going on in
12:01technology right now." So, I feel like
12:04it could be the kind of thing into the
12:05end of the year where, you know, the
12:07NASDAQ really comes off and the only
12:09thing that survives are like ENTP, gold
12:12miners, um, you know, industrials, basic
12:15materials, things like that. I could be
12:18wrong, but I feel like that's the trade
12:20that we're telling telegraphing for the
12:21last two months of the quarter.
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14:05Yeah, I like all that a lot. I I'm the
14:07same way, Tony. I've been looking the
14:08last couple weeks at these these random
14:10days of correlations between sectors and
14:12how that reacts and and just trying to
14:14think through what what does that tell
14:15me, you know, and we've had a couple of
14:17those sprinkles in the last couple weeks
14:18where you see bonds rally with equities
14:20lower. And, you know, there's even been
14:22a couple times where you've seen oil up
14:23and bonds rally at the same time. It's
14:25because you're trying to navigate this
14:26oil thing and the AI thing at the same
14:28time and how that nets out the economy.
14:30But it's like, hey, when I'm getting
14:31those clean reads, you know, right now
14:32we're in a leverage wash out and it's
14:35you're trying to piece through to the
14:36other side. But I think I think it's
14:38accurate when you mentioned 2018. I
14:40think that's been a a really good analog
14:42for me right now. But Q4 2018, you know,
14:44you have a you have a new Fed chair
14:45trying to navigate how to how the hell
14:47to talk in these press conferences. you
14:49had you know one one hike maybe maybe
14:52two based on this potentially false
14:54notion of a of a strong economy but the
14:57underlying is actually quite weak and
14:58then suddenly you see that reverse quite
15:00quickly after this you know big unwind
15:03we had like I think it was cues were
15:05like 20% down in 2018 and then we've
15:07just seen we saw the whole Fed pivot
15:09then um you know the the original PAL
15:11pivot was born then so I think there's
15:13yeah there's a lot to take in right now
15:15that the market's telling us
15:16>> the the one thing that I'm going to hang
15:18my hat on though. No matter what oil
15:20does is that you know bonds can back off
15:23etc. But that's a good low man. We're
15:25not going to see that price like people
15:26have to remember what a drawn out
15:28pronounced bond selloff that was you
15:30know like it landed in the historic
15:33tables for how long it lasted and that
15:36just makes me believe that the recovery
15:37is going to be that much longer. And
15:39that bottom that we saw in October, you
15:42know, I mean, we saw max max bearish
15:44sentiment. We saw the econ uh the
15:46economist cover. We saw, you know, RSI
15:49at like eight in bonds, you know, the
15:51long bond, and you were like, "Okay,
15:52man." Like, I don't know what's going to
15:54make it give, but it's going to give at
15:55some point. And that's to me like the
15:58most important thing. I'm trying not to
15:59let that out of my head because even if
16:00oil rallies like we're going to need to
16:03see like a sustained rally above $110
16:08for bonds to re to even approach that
16:10low, you know? So that that's like to me
16:12like I'm looking to buy the dip in bonds
16:15and I think in energy now the most
16:17interesting one of the more interesting
16:18trades I'm trying not to get memorized
16:20by the semi-ell off although you know
16:23everything is three sigma plus today you
16:26know and it's like man you know you
16:27can't even get a bounce today like there
16:29is not even like uh there's not even a
16:32muscle memory bounce today that's how
16:34you know that like this thing is like
16:36still rolling downhill
16:38um so that's scary because if we have
16:40the big T if we have MAG 7 back off
16:43another 10%. You know, now you got the
16:45S&P floundering below the 200 day and
16:48there could be some damage incurred at
16:50that point. But I'm really trying I'm
16:52hard trying hard not to get too index
16:55focused. Like Quinn said and like Felix
16:57alluded to, there's like there's so much
16:59crosscurrent trading going on that like
17:01a view on the S&P just kind of confuses
17:04me. I want to stay bullish in in basic
17:06materials and natural resources. I want
17:08to stay bullish in bonds. I want to stay
17:10bearish in tech. That's just a general
17:13idea for now. But man, it this this the
17:15down and back, the up and back down from
17:18today and yesterday like this. I can't
17:19wait to see how things close tomorrow,
17:22right? Because a rally right back
17:23tomorrow just to relieve some of today's
17:25oversoldness would not shock me, you
17:29know, and it's just uh you got to stick
17:32with the trades that are working and
17:33manage the living [ __ ] out of them.
17:36>> Yeah, that's that's all I've been doing.
17:38The thing with this is that there's, you
17:41know, we're watching the the AI and
17:44semis and tech just melt. You know, kind
17:47of small caps growthier stuff's taking
17:49part now, too.
17:51>> And there's still 80% chance of a hike
17:53in December, which is just like I don't
17:57think it's going to happen. But the
17:59thing is is I don't I don't think the if
18:02you recall back to 18 it's like the the
18:06market bottoms when that comes out
18:08basically. And you know we saw with the
18:10October hike they you know sent flurry
18:13of Fed speakers out to to talk the
18:16market down. They took October October
18:18was at 72. It went down to zero
18:21basically of percent chance of a hike.
18:23But that was the month before midterm. I
18:26mean what what incentive
18:28you know it seems like people kind of
18:30forgot I don't know how yesterday huge
18:33blue sweep and somehow the narrative in
18:35the markets forgot about what everyone
18:36was saying okay Trump's going to just
18:40like he has no incentive him and Bessant
18:42to prop this market he has the Democrats
18:44to point to he said 10 times on the
18:45campaign trail depression if the Dems
18:48win and then like Jem Carson's been
18:51saying that forever like super on the
18:53ball and then somehow Oh, yesterday
18:55everyone was like, "Clearing event.
18:57We're off. Sweet." Like, and it was
18:59like, "Wait a second. What's going on?
19:01How?" It was so strange.
19:03>> Don't Don't take hedges being rolled off
19:05as like real signal. I think that's the
19:07lesson.
19:08>> And somebody going toes up today, too,
19:10right? Without a doubt. Like, there's a
19:12leverage blow up on the tape. I mean,
19:13with this many three sigma moves back in
19:15the other direction, it's just another
19:17blowup, you know? And I'm not sure what
19:18led it. Well, this today's blowup is
19:20probably led by somebody that was long
19:22all technology and had a blowout, you
19:24know? Like yesterday's blow up could
19:26have been something different, you know?
19:28Like I'm not even sure what like I was
19:30getting so bullish yesterday,
19:33you know, like I'm I'm a guy that reads
19:35when there are there is a large number
19:39of large magnitude moves across sectors,
19:43right? Not just stocks, but sectors.
19:45That's usually a major tell. We had 14
19:48sectors yesterday in the S&P with two
19:50sigma rallies or more and five sectors
19:54with three sigma rallies including
19:56retail, finance, consumer discretionary,
19:58airlines, home construction, and broker
20:01dealers. And all of that completely
20:04reversed today.
20:05>> You know what I mean? And it's like
20:06whoa. Like like I have to like I'm
20:08literally dizzy right now because I'm
20:10the kind of guy that sees that and says,
20:12"All right, man. It looks like the
20:14market was just relieved of this
20:16decision about the midterms. It's such
20:19an obvious outcome that it's the most
20:21obvious like by the fact event, you
20:24know, that that's what it told us
20:25yesterday. And today it was like, yeah,
20:27it is by the fact event, but you've got
20:28this AI bubble that's bursting all over
20:30your face, you know, and I just feel
20:33like that could be one of the things
20:34that's going on. Like the stock market
20:37wants to go higher, but the, you know,
20:39the AI bubble is just like, no. and the
20:41capitalization. Now, we know if Nvidia
20:43is off 10% in a day, you know, the S&P
20:46is going to be down big. You know,
20:47there's almost nothing that you can do
20:49about that now.
20:50>> So, man, you know, I'm kind of
20:53like I said, I think tomorrow's close is
20:55going to be the most it's got to be the
20:57most important thing of all now. You
20:58know, do we retrace? Do we go out on the
21:01balls low? Which to me, the the
21:03semiconductor selloff, like it's nice
21:06that it's down 10% today and everything
21:08like that, but there's room, man. You
21:10know what I mean? Like there's the the
21:12socks the SM SMH is trading 455 down
21:15from the 600s. There's room to 350
21:18before there's support.
21:20>> Yeah.
21:21>> The old crypto chart.
21:24>> Crypto I tell you man, crypto looked put
21:26it this way. I can't even believe I'm
21:28saying this, but like crypto looks fine
21:30to me.
21:31>> You know, I hate the fact that it took
21:33another credibility hit with a $6
21:35billion hack. I mean that sucks, you
21:37know? Like I I feel bad for the people
21:40that are in it big when [ __ ] like that
21:42happens. I mean that really sucks, you
21:43know, and it takes the credibility out
21:45of the security, but I look at the chart
21:47and I'm like this thing like the my blue
21:50sky breakout is still intact.
21:52>> So I've got that position on. It's not,
21:54you know, I don't have a huge position
21:55because I'm a little bit scared of
21:56Bitcoin, but I've got that on and it's
21:58working. So I feel good about that. You
22:00know, my other ideas for the quarter in
22:02my quarterly report were long energy and
22:04long bonds and those were working. I
22:06clearly pointed out that semis were a do
22:09not touch up here, but man, you know, I
22:11feel like there's still room in the semi
22:13short and and like, you know, gold and
22:15gold miners now are a trade that I don't
22:17want to take my eye off. You know, we've
22:19gotten lulled to sleep in gold.
22:21>> You know, first it was gold sucks. Why
22:23isn't it going anywhere? And then it
22:25was, hey, gold's hanging in here pretty
22:26good. And then we made the new low and
22:28everybody threw the towel in and now
22:30it's 4,100 bid and now all the bulls are
22:32like, oh, we're back in business. All
22:34right, cool. Like that was that was
22:35nothing. Like I can live with that. And
22:37meanwhile, if you ask me, gold's doing
22:39exactly what the [ __ ] it's supposed to
22:40be doing and not really going anywhere
22:42while all hell is breaking loose, you
22:44know? So, like, I'm cool with my gold
22:46right now. I really am.
22:47>> Yeah.
22:47>> Yeah. We've been talking a lot about
22:48that recently around gold and Bitcoin,
22:50which are like they're they're assets
22:52that you can tell want to go higher.
22:54They're just getting hampered by just
22:55pretty [ __ ] liquidation like liquid.
22:57Yeah. By risk, by liquidity, by the tech
22:59thing, but you can tell it wants to go.
23:01And you just got to decide how do you
23:03want to navigate from A to B. Are you
23:04willing to just wait for the chop like
23:06you are right now or do you wait for for
23:08the confirmation? But it's clear it
23:09wants to go. The fundamentals are ready
23:11for it. You just got to get to the other
23:13side and and wait for that to happen.
23:15>> That that look below Tony that look
23:18below summer lows in gold reminds me of
23:20when you pointed out Bitcoin and in the
23:23summer and you said that's a good low
23:25right there when you have the the rec
23:27look below reclaim. It's like
23:30>> oddly similar chart
23:31>> saying dude we've we've seen that. I
23:33mean, that's a pattern I make a living
23:34on, you know what I mean? Like, you
23:35know, it doesn't always happen
23:36immediately. It's nice when it does. Um,
23:39but if you can have faith and confidence
23:41in just understanding the mechanism that
23:43that means, you know, you break a new
23:46range, you look into, you're essentially
23:48looking into a new room to see where all
23:50the action is, and all of a sudden
23:51there's nobody in there. You know,
23:53there's nobody that's like, I GOT 10,000
23:54TO GO DOWN HERE. YOU KNOW, IT'S like
23:56crickets. And so the market just goes
23:58back to doing what it was doing, which
24:00is, you know, consolidating within a
24:02range, looking for its next excuse to
24:05get on a bull market run in a secular
24:07bull market. You know, like I don't want
24:09to get I'm I'm I'm a, you know, I'm a a
24:11technician and a pattern recognition guy
24:13by nature, but I don't want to get
24:15bucked off the gold trade just because
24:17it's meandering through moving averages
24:20right now. You know, like if you' asked
24:22me two years ago like where do you think
24:24gold is going to be in two years, like I
24:26wouldn't have said 5k bid or four, you
24:28know, I probably would have just said, I
24:29don't know, you know, maybe it's up a
24:31little bit more from here, but you know,
24:32we've just had a couple of huge years,
24:34150% year in gold miners last year.
24:38Everybody piled in. That's why they
24:39can't get off their ass this year. Um,
24:42but I still think there's a real trade
24:43there. I still think that there's a real
24:44trade there, especially with the
24:46election results. I just don't know if
24:49it can live through this semi-bubble
24:50popping,
24:53>> you know?
24:53>> Yeah, I think it's I think it's still a
24:55little early stages, too. Like it's you
24:57know how whenever we see markets down,
24:59people always joke about, you know,
25:00rumors of a pod shop blowing up, but I
25:02think that's actually happening today.
25:03Like we've already got news from a while
25:06Capital is returning capital to
25:07investors. So like the multistrats are
25:09blowing up, but it's it's still the long
25:11short equity guys. Like it has
25:13>> it's all equity move. The bond market
25:14doesn't even care about this, right?
25:16like
25:16>> Yeah, exactly. So,
25:18>> bond market hasn't moved since the
25:20election. The bond market is standing
25:21like this since the election. Doesn't
25:23care about the election. Doesn't care
25:24about this market move barely at all. I
25:27mean, you know, Ra, you can make the
25:28case that bonds are a couple ticks
25:29higher with the risk off.
25:31>> That seems perfectly normal and they're
25:33still, you know, kind of within range.
25:35So,
25:36>> man, that's a sign of strength to me.
25:39>> Yeah,
25:40>> that that looks fine. And
25:41>> you could take that in either direction.
25:43One is that it's just going to remain
25:44isolated to the equity pods that are all
25:46blowing up right now. Or it's that this
25:48hasn't broadened out yet and that's the
25:50next leg from here is that it starts to
25:52broaden out. I mean, and that's where
25:53you got to keep keep your focus on on
25:55what assets you're excited about because
25:57yeah, you know, even though we're
25:58bullish bonds, bullish gold, those can
26:00get, you know, when you need cash, you
26:02need cash and that can happen
26:03regardless. And you got to have a plan
26:05for that. But, uh, yeah, that's kind of
26:08what I'm looking at.
26:09>> You guys have any thoughts on FX?
26:12And I don't really I really don't I use
26:15that kind of as my speedometer coin
26:17right now. And um the dollar is
26:19comfortably in this 98102 range for me.
26:22And you know I kind of I'm not going to
26:24I'm not going to sweat it unless it gets
26:25out of there.
26:26>> Unless feel unless Felix has any
26:28brilliant ideas, you should probably
26:29talk to Brent Donnelly about FX.
26:32>> No, I just What are you going What are
26:34you bringing? Wait. What are you
26:34thinking?
26:35>> Well, what's interesting to me is
26:38probably the most in FX and I don't I
26:40I'm similar to Tony. I don't trade it
26:42that often is how bullish the dollar's
26:44been, but yet strong the yen versus the
26:48dollar. So like when you look at DXY,
26:50it's it's pretty bull market stuff, but
26:53then USD JPY is like struggling at the
26:56200 underside retest.
26:58>> And I mean it's not a trade I I care to
27:00take that much, but I think it's um I
27:04think it's indicative of if you think
27:06about, you know, yen's usually a safe
27:08haven. bonds are bid, gold's forming a
27:10bottom. And I think it's helpful to like
27:13you said, what's going to be in vogue
27:14next few months? I mean, it does
27:16definitely doesn't look like the the you
27:19know, high beta momentum. It's it's kind
27:22of all the safety and
27:24>> and um for gold, you know, like the
27:27dollar does matter. And if if that's
27:29sort of petering out with
27:31>> growth petering out and inflation
27:33petering out like it's probably
27:35generally good that yields are have
27:37found their top you know in terms of
27:40>> the dollar's upward momentum. So I I
27:42think it's but yeah I don't have any
27:44strong trades there.
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29:27and I'll see you in London.
29:33I think what I'm looking at adjacent to
29:34that is the fact that
29:37the rates market is still pricing in
29:39hikes. Um, that feels kind of surprising
29:42to me. Like we still I was looking this
29:43morning, we still have the two-year
29:44that's above Fed funds. Um,
29:47>> imagine them hiking another hike in
29:49>> That's what I'm saying. Imagine they
29:50hike it like it depends what you think
29:53is really driving them to hike rates
29:55here. But if it is about AI buildout
29:57thing and the fact that you know the the
29:59top the top leg of the K-shaped economy
30:01is spending like crazy because equities
30:02have been so much higher, like both of
30:04those notions are being taken out. You
30:06you can make the argument that some
30:07aspects of the oil market like diesels
30:09have been having some demand destruction
30:11there. Like to me it's about we're
30:13quickly shifting towards a growth
30:14slowdown and we still have rate hikes
30:16priced in.
30:17>> Yeah. Yeah. That's Yeah. That's what I
30:21see too, you know, like we're we we've
30:23got the hikes priced in to battle the
30:25energy inflation which really
30:28historically shouldn't be a factor. You
30:32know what I mean? You know, like you
30:34know, if you think about it, I mean gas
30:36is dirt cheap still. dirt cheap on an
30:38inflationadjusted basis without a doubt.
30:41So, you know, when you think about it
30:43that way, it's like that shouldn't be
30:45causing that. I mean, that's why I don't
30:46think B bonds are definitely have the
30:48bottom in like no matter what inflation
30:50adjusted energy is cheap. The problem is
30:53you can't tell that to the farmer who's
30:56got to pay $750 for diesel and it
30:59doesn't work in his break even analysis
31:01anymore, you know? So, I kind of get
31:03that. And and the problem is though that
31:06like
31:08I don't know there's like there's like
31:10this false inflation. I don't know. I
31:12think it's like Jared said like there's
31:14the mind virus of we have this issue at
31:16the grocery store and really no issue in
31:20the in the markets, right? There's no
31:22real major CPI inflation. The last PPI
31:26inflation that came in a little bit hot,
31:28the bond market totally ignored. And so
31:30it's like man, you know, like we we're
31:32ra what are we hiking rates for now?
31:34Especially with this tech coming up
31:35coming off the way it is now. So I kind
31:38of agree that that that chances of hike
31:41in December are going to collapse if
31:42this continues at all. You know, un
31:45unless there's a total total down and
31:47back recovery in stocks, which I'm not
31:49seeing cuz the semi chart is now
31:51officially broken. Man, I don't know how
31:54they get another hike on the tape. I
31:56really don't.
31:58>> Yeah.
31:59>> What do you think? It's just classic
32:00Fed. I mean, it's just classic. Like,
32:02>> you can you can change the the commander
32:05of the institution, but you can't you're
32:07not going to change the institution.
32:09>> Can't change the stripes on a Tiger,
32:10right?
32:12>> How about how about speaking about those
32:14stripes, how about last week,
32:16>> Cororeweave credit is coming undone and
32:18Goldman Sachs comes out and says, "Now,
32:20we initiated with a buy core. It's fine.
32:24>> Don't don't ask questions."
32:25>> Yeah. Space SpaceX comes out, reports
32:29it's trading up a little bit to 140. JP
32:32Morgan comes out, $500 price target.
32:34You're like, what? $500? Like, why not a
32:37$200 or 250 price target? Like, give me
32:40a break. All that stuff is to keep this
32:42from happening.
32:43>> Well, you know what's so funny about
32:44that is, you know, the classic bank
32:46thing. You got the sell side saying buy
32:47and then you got the buy side. I just
32:49saw this this news just came a couple
32:50minutes ago, but it's saying a roughly
32:52$500 million portfolio of data center
32:54loans have been up for sale all at once
32:56in a rare auction that comes just days
32:58after a democratic sweep. So now you got
33:00you got the sell side saying buy these
33:01bonds and then meanwhile they're just
33:03all trying to liquidate.
33:04>> Well, that's why they're saying it
33:05because they got a trillion dollars of
33:07AI capex to sell you and they got an
33:09anthropic IPO to jam down retail's
33:12throats. I mean, think of think to get
33:15to get the SpaceX IPO off midsummer when
33:18semis are at in the stratosphere. They
33:20had to open up down to like 25k accounts
33:22at Fidelity. What are they going to have
33:24to do? Get to get the anthropic IPO out
33:26the door.
33:27>> Dude, Fidelity already said all you need
33:29all you need is like, you know, proof of
33:30proof of your last meal
33:32>> and we'll let you buy some [ __ ]
33:34anthropic. You know what I mean? Send us
33:36a P photo of you with your lunch.
33:38>> Yeah.
33:39>> And we'll get you some IPO.
33:42No, I'm serious, man. This thing I mean,
33:45imagine you're Dario Modi right now,
33:49right? The scout didn't work.
33:50>> I don't I don't know what they do.
33:53>> I think he just is I think what'll calm
33:55everything is if he just comes out one
33:57more time and says AI is going to kill
33:58every like then that then this is all
34:01done, right?
34:01>> Yeah. Then we're good.
34:02>> Just
34:03>> could you imagine they started that SCOP
34:05today,
34:07dude? I mean, they could have caused a
34:10market crash by doing that with the
34:12wrong timing on that SCOP about AI
34:14taking over the world. Well, we're
34:16crafting our response to the people's
34:18reaction to the AI catastrophe.
34:21>> Really? Well, how about we stop the
34:22catastrophe?
34:24>> Yeah.
34:24>> No, no, that's going to happen. It's out
34:25of our control. We're working on the PR
34:27release for after
34:29>> the catastrophe. We want to make sure
34:30that the stocks are in good shape, you
34:32know? And you're like, this is a comedy
34:33show, man. So anyway, they're getting
34:36justice today and semis are coming
34:37undone. S&P is making a new low as we
34:40speak. It's just getting started. I got
34:42a feeling tomorrow. I mean, semis look
34:44like they can they can leave another
34:46like gap or two on the chart here and
34:48just break away from those big golden
34:50arches that I've been talking about.
34:52Man, this I mean the thing took it spent
34:54a year consolidating
34:56almost, you know, from September to
34:58September
34:59with the with the SpaceX IPO as the
35:02cherry on top at the dead ball high. I
35:04mean, if that's that's as good a high as
35:06the bonds are a good low.
35:09>> I think the short I'm most annoyed that
35:11I missed was the obvious short all of
35:13Elon's companies when the Dems like
35:16they're like
35:17>> or or shorting all the Trump crypto
35:19coins.
35:20>> Yeah, true. Those things are down 30%. I
35:22was like, that was so obvious
35:23>> that it's unbelievable that he ran a
35:26crypto scam right from the Oval Office
35:28and made hundreds of millions of dollars
35:30right in everyone's face. And he's like,
35:32what? [ __ ] you.
35:33>> What's What's the What's the problem,
35:35man?
35:37>> What do you think we're do? What do you
35:38think we're doing here?
35:40>> You know what I mean? What do you think
35:41we're doing here? We're making money.
35:44>> How about Well, how about this? We were
35:46just talking about Elon Musk. How about
35:47How about at the level where Scott
35:49Galloway
35:50essentially says calls Elon Musk a
35:53traitor to America and compares it to
35:56the what the Rosenberg execution.
36:00>> Yeah, that was insane.
36:01>> That's
36:02the guy.
36:03>> Yeah, I used to listen to read a lot of
36:05Scott, but I don't really know what his
36:08kind of strategy is here right now.
36:10Felix, I got to tell you, Felix, I was
36:12at one of his presentations with my
36:15shiny book, waiting for him to sign it,
36:18and I got him to sign it. Yeah. Like I I
36:21literally I thought this when I read
36:22What's the book about the four big tech
36:24companies?
36:25>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
36:26>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The big
36:28>> Yeah. Like Yeah. Yeah.
36:30>> That book was brilliant. He won me over.
36:32He actually, you want to hear this? He
36:33actually had one of my tweets as his pin
36:36tweet for about three months.
36:39No [ __ ] And then after Jan 6th when he
36:43was like calling for these people to go
36:45to a goolog, I was like, "Bro, that
36:47whole thing was the biggest setup I've
36:49ever seen in my life." And he blocked
36:50me. So I I went from being a super fan
36:54getting his autograph. I had my tweet
36:56pinned. I had like a hundred screenshots
36:58like Scott Galloway pinned my tweet,
37:00man.
37:01>> And now now like he blocked me and I'm
37:03like I'm so happy about seeing this.
37:05like he's been an obvious
37:08>> like sort of activist in hiding under
37:11academia, you know, but calling Elon Mus
37:14that I think I thought was completely
37:15out of line. Completely out of line and
37:17he caught hell for it, too, that he
37:18deserved.
37:20But who knows, man.
37:21>> That's what sucks about our society at
37:22this juncture. The the division is just
37:26it's sad, man.
37:27>> The bull market never stops, right?
37:30>> The bull market and division.
37:32>> Well, they just keep
37:34>> Yeah. Yeah, they keep throwing these
37:35stories in your face that are so
37:37divisive that like every story is
37:39another level of like, you know,
37:40splitting groups apart, you know, like
37:43all the stuff, all the stuff that goes
37:45on in, you know, sports and all that
37:46[ __ ] But whatever. We're getting away
37:48from the markets now. I don't want to do
37:49that to you. I don't want to do that to
37:51you.
37:51>> So, from now to the end of the year, if
37:53you what's your favorite trade?
37:56>> I think it's gold. I think it's gold.
37:58Uh, and I think in agricultural
38:01commodities there's some some
38:03interesting stuff, but I'm a little
38:05nervous about this growth scare until
38:07the Fed gets off their horse. So, but I
38:10think gold can frontr run that. Like, I
38:11think gold can say
38:13>> I think gold can say, "Hey, you guys,
38:15you guys want to hike one more time? You
38:17don't? Let's see." But either way,
38:20growth
38:21>> in a tough spot. Yeah. Like
38:23>> I like that a lot. Like if you if you
38:24long gold and short semis which
38:26basically is what you're doing Tony like
38:27that feels just beautiful and and bonds
38:30too like yeah really like Yeah.
38:32>> Yeah. What do you think for that idea
38:34like that Felix
38:38>> I'm throwing in one more sector home
38:41construction.
38:43Don't sleep on that because in my
38:46opinion, man, the setup in those are
38:48this year they got the kitchen sink
38:50thrown at them, right? $7 diesel, 7 and
38:5412% more, seven or whatever, 7% mortgage
38:56rates, whatever.
38:58>> Um, and I'm looking at them and I'm
39:00like, they're unchanged on the year.
39:02Unched.
39:03>> That is crazy,
39:04>> right? And if you would have said, you
39:05know, one of those things, right? Okay,
39:08you wake up in the middle of the night,
39:09oil is $110, diesel seven bucks,
39:12mortgage rates are $7. Where are home
39:14construction stocks on the year? You'd
39:16be like, down 20, down 20%. And they've
39:18hung in and they have this beautiful
39:19flat bottom and they've really responded
39:22to the bond market bottoming like kind
39:24of on these times that catch me off
39:25guard when it's like, whoa, there's a
39:27big rally in home construction. So, I
39:29have that on my pad, too. And I feel
39:31like it could be a sneaky one that can
39:34avoid the semicolapse,
39:36you know, and and sort of live through a
39:39couple of other things going on with
39:41with energy moving around. So, I don't
39:43know. That's the thing that I've got my
39:44eye on between now and the end of the
39:45year.
39:46>> So, I longed a lot of housing stuff out
39:49of out of that kind of to play bonds
39:51because I didn't want to buy bonds and
39:53then I sold. They kept
39:56>> really nice pops. They kept going.
39:58They're kind of trade back. This is a
40:00good one for you because you're the
40:01master at getting entries on something
40:02you're stocking like XHB, ITB, whichever
40:05one of those, they're pretty similar.
40:06Like, how do you think about getting an
40:08entry in a chart that's popped pretty
40:11good off its lows? the the thesis and
40:13catalysts are probably still there for
40:15some time, but it's no longer like as
40:18easy, you know, where you so that's kind
40:21of like, you know, that that's what I
40:23coach people through is like how to get
40:25exposure when you want it and it's not
40:27really advantageous, right? And I use
40:30what's kind of like a threeprong effect
40:32where I have a bid below, right? The
40:35place that I'm happy to buy some. I have
40:37a sort of stop me into some up here
40:40above the market and then I have an egg
40:43timer alongside it that says if I don't
40:45get hit down here and if I don't get in
40:47up here I have to put 20% of the
40:49position on by the bell on Friday.
40:52>> You know, you know if you know it's
40:53something it's something you're saying
40:55now it's like
40:57>> you're talking about something that you
40:58want to buy, right? It's not something
41:00that you're feeling out. It's something
41:02that you've identified as an opportunity
41:04and you want to buy, but you want better
41:06prices, right? It's not something that
41:08like, okay, cancel this on approach,
41:09right? Like, it's coming my way. I don't
41:11want to buy it anymore cuz it's going
41:12down. It's like you're making a
41:13commitment for, you know, a period of
41:15time. But for me, that always works
41:17because,
41:19you know, I'm I'm like watching these
41:20three options, right? I'm watching my
41:22bid below. I'm watching me get stopped
41:24into maybe a smaller portion. Um, but I
41:27also got the clock ticking that's going
41:29to get me into some by Friday if I don't
41:31get any on the books, you know. So, that
41:32that's one way that I do it. And uh then
41:34you just keep adjusting that every day,
41:37you know, for another 25% piece. And
41:39then you just got to manage it once you
41:40get your position on, man. Just like
41:42everything else, you know, be prepared
41:43to pull the [ __ ] rip cord. Yeah,
41:46that's the only thing you could do in
41:47this tape right now. I mean, with with
41:48three sigma up, three sigma down days,
41:50I'm afraid to open up the market
41:52tomorrow.
41:54>> I'm afraid I wouldn't go home. I would
41:55go with a dollar of risk on tonight. Put
41:58it that way. Even though I've had a good
41:59semi call, I covered them into the
42:02selloff this morning. I took a chance
42:03trying to go long and got buried so fast
42:06my head was spinning. So, I'm like, I'm
42:08done for today.
42:09>> Let's see what happens tomorrow. And God
42:11knows what the hell that could be, man.
42:14>> Very true. No, I I like that. It's like
42:16you got to you got to try and find the
42:19least risky. you you know you always say
42:21there's risky prices you know good
42:23things bad prices bad things good prices
42:26>> you don't want yeah you don't want to
42:28always be piling into risky price trades
42:30you know some of the trade or at least
42:32if you are you got to identify it as
42:34that and have its own set of risk
42:36management parameters right I have a
42:39very different posture on the
42:40non-risisky trades than I do on risky
42:42trades I put on risky trades and my hair
42:44is standing up as soon as I have it on
42:45like you know I'm I'm like you know
42:47you're doing that nickels in front of
42:49the steamroll roller until it works,
42:51until the real breakout happens. You
42:52know, it was kind of like the same idea
42:54about I've gotten burnt a couple of
42:56times being short semis and then I put a
42:58position on and never saw the price
42:59again for a little while and I was like,
43:01"Oh, I think I got them,
43:03>> you know, and then was able to cover
43:04that." I and I covered in the pre-market
43:06at 5490, 485, 490, thinking those were
43:09good buys down 20 bucks. That's why
43:12that's why I got the beer muscles to buy
43:14it down at 460 again and lost money on
43:16that. I was like, "Get me the [ __ ] out
43:18of here.
43:19So yeah,
43:20>> it's kind it's kind of like fishing.
43:21Yeah. You know, you just you put the rod
43:23out there and see if you get a catch and
43:24then you get a live one and you're like,
43:26"All right, protect it. Protect it. Reel
43:28it in. Keep it tight." And
43:29>> Yeah. Yeah. It's like surfing, you know?
43:31You go out looking for good waves and
43:32you find one and you get capsized a few
43:34times, you're like, "All right, man. Get
43:36me out of here."
43:37>> You know, like I thought I was catching
43:38these. They're beating me up. I've been
43:40in that situation before, too, man.
43:44>> Yeah. Love it.
43:46>> Love it. Anything else, guys? I I think
43:49we covered a lot. There's There's
43:51Whatever we say today, by the time it
43:52airs tomorrow is probably going to be
43:53wrong. So
43:54>> yeah, exactly.
43:55>> We'll be right for five minutes, wrong
43:56for another 10. Like, yeah, who the hell
43:58knows?
43:59>> All right. So, one thing about here's
44:00here's here's like the classic setup,
44:03right? We open up the week.
44:06We open up the week with oil up at 105
44:10bucks or something, right? Trump starts
44:12the week.
44:14Peace negotiation number 37 coming
44:17online here. Iran want Hey guys, Iran
44:19wants to talk. Look at this. What do you
44:21know? Monday morning
44:23now. Oil sitting at its 200 day moving
44:26average right. We're relying on Captain
44:30[ __ ] who just cost us the whole House
44:32and Senate to come up to follow through
44:35on this being a a forthright, you know,
44:39idea of his that he and I ran are going
44:40to sit down at the table and really iron
44:43this [ __ ] thing out and fix it,
44:45right?
44:46>> If you believe that he's full of [ __ ]
44:48number 40th time, you got to be long oil
44:51here.
44:52>> No, I'm saying just be long it and risk
44:54$2. you know, the 200 day moving average
44:56is right below. Like, I'll be long I if
44:57I do anything like
45:00>> after the whole kurfuffle today, I will
45:01be long a little bit of crude oil going
45:03home and seeing if you know, Captain
45:05Courageous actually puts a peace deal or
45:07if we blow up another refinery over the
45:09weekend. Look at that. You know, like so
45:12that's the only thing that that's
45:12another thing that's on my mind.
45:14>> You know, I don't want to be like, man,
45:16we could have the guy just lost the
45:18House and Senate and we had a chance to
45:19fade him with crude oil in the 80s and I
45:21didn't do it. The guy's like over for a
45:23hundred this year and I didn't fade him
45:25when Crude oil was sitting in my lap. I
45:28don't know. Just just something I don't
45:29want to let go by without making a
45:31couple bucks on it. If it goes up $10
45:33tonight, that's all.
45:35>> Couldn't agree more, man. I'm I'm
45:37probably the biggest oil bowl in the
45:40>> east of the right.
45:41>> They're not They're not making it easy
45:43for you, though. They're not making it
45:44easy for you.
45:45>> But if you could make eye contact when
45:47it was $70 offered a couple months ago,
45:49he was hiding. He didn't answer his text
45:51messages. Nothing, man.
45:55>> Well, I I didn't even join it till till
45:58mid late summer.
45:59>> No, I know. I'm busting you balls.
46:01>> Yeah, I think I think he's just Yeah.
46:03No, but
46:04>> when you go into it, it's like exactly
46:06what you outlined, TG. It's like
46:08freaking you're just pulling up to the
46:11the donkey daycare and you're like,
46:13"What what shit's going to hit me in the
46:14face today?"
46:16And then you know six days later Pete
46:20Hagith removal headline yesterday I
46:22think that took oil down like 8% or like
46:25you just don't know. Yeah.
46:26>> Seriously that guy's expendable now,
46:29>> right?
46:30>> Totally expendable. We could we could
46:32pin the Iran war on him, kick him out,
46:34whatever. I mean this is this is comedy
46:37>> and and I think that's why the markets
46:39are so difficult, right?
46:40>> Of the course. Yeah.
46:41>> Yeah. Yeah.
46:42>> Yeah. Nobody wants to put size on oil
46:44because of that. It's a nightmare.
46:47>> That's what I mean. That's what I mean.
46:48I mean, you know, we've had this big
46:50pullback from the highs and diesel and
46:51the crack spread and stuff like that,
46:53but it's like, man,
46:55I don't, you know, I don't trust that
46:56it's over. I I don't trust that it's
46:58over. I don't trust that we're making
46:59peace with Iran. I don't I don't trust
47:01anything. The guy just lost midterms.
47:03He's like, I'm going to Israel.
47:06>> Okay.
47:08>> Yeah.
47:09>> Okay, cool. Cool. We'll take care of all
47:11the stuff that you left us with. It's
47:12fine.
47:14Yeah. Take your $7 billion that you just
47:16printed, too.
47:17>> Yeah. Yeah. No worries.
47:19>> God, no worries at all.
47:21>> All right, guys. That was a lot of fun,
47:22Tony. Always a pleasure to have you.
47:24Can't wait to can't wait to hang in
47:25person in Nashville. It's
47:27>> totally. You guys are the best. I'm
47:28honored to be on here. Thank you very
47:30much.
47:31>> Good stuff. Everybody, sign up for the
47:33TG Macco conference in February in
47:35Nashville.
47:36>> Hell yeah. Well,
47:38>> have a good weekend.

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