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LIVE TRADING - How He Made $40,000+ Trading using OrderFlow (Full Masterclass) — Transcript

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0:00The world's best traders use this one
0:02thing, order flow. And today, a multi
0:04seven figure verified trader is going to
0:07show you exactly, step by step, and
0:10simplify the process of trading order
0:12flow.
0:13>> In the month of May, I made $203,000
0:15using just these concepts. No matter
0:17what order flow tool you use or how you
0:19view the market, this is what forms a
0:22market, and this is how candlesticks
0:24form. This is how line charts form. This
0:26is how a market moves up or down.
0:28Whether we talk about cars, watches,
0:30stocks, this is the driving factor of a
0:32market. If I trade without order flow,
0:34I'm trading blindly. I need to see this
0:36because it gives me confidence that I'm
0:38on the right side of the market with the
0:40right participants that I'm looking to
0:41trade with.
0:42>> Carmine Rosato teaches you exactly how
0:45to trade order flow, no matter what
0:46trading style you trade.
0:48>> This will give you a reason why the
0:50market may reject, a reason why the
0:52market's consolidating [music] there.
0:53And then point number three is one of my
0:54favorites, and a lot of I know like ICT
0:57traders or smart money concepts will
0:58love this one. It's just a snow
0:59>> to the strategy that you trade, whether
1:02it's ICT, smart money concepts,
1:04Fibonacci, supply and demand, it does
1:06not matter. Order flow will make your
1:08trading better.
1:09>> If you use order flow, and I'm a firm
1:11believer of this, no matter what trading
1:13strategy you use, ICT, smart money
1:15concepts, Fibonacci, supply demand, any
1:17trading strategy, if you can implement
1:18order flow with that strategy, you'll
1:20get better risk reward ratios, and
1:22you'll take better high quality
1:23confirmations with that strategy.
1:25>> Not only does Carmine teach you step by
1:27step and make it easy to trade order
1:30flow, he will then show you it traded
1:32live during New York session, so you can
1:34watch an elite trader trade candle by
1:37candle, showing their execution, their
1:39management, and their take profit.
1:41>> We're going to pull back again into
1:42these 87s, and we hold it.
1:45But what I want you all to keep an eye
1:46on, and this is what made me click the
1:48buy button.
1:50Following this.
1:51>> Was on all of this on Chart Fanatics
1:53YouTube right now.
1:55Welcome everyone back to Chart Fanatics,
1:57the channel for all the very best
1:59trading strategies and concept
2:01breakdowns with the best traders in the
2:02world. Talk here with today we have our
2:04first ever part two already on Chart
2:06Fanatics by popular demand cuz people
2:09wanted to know a deep dive and a
2:11masterclass into order flow trading. So,
2:14there's only one person for the job and
2:15that is the one and only a verified
2:17seven-figure trader, the founder of
2:19Investor Trade, Carmine Rosato.
2:21>> Thank you, Riz.
2:22>> I'll say your last name right.
2:23>> Rosato, yeah.
2:23>> Rosato, yeah.
2:24>> You can call me Riz.
2:25>> Yeah, people were saying, "You know
2:26you've made it when you only are known
2:28by your first name." And that's it.
2:30But man, it's a pleasure to have you
2:31back. I appreciate you coming back as
2:33well. And you know, as I said, the the
2:34comments on the last one, people loved
2:36it. People loved the the low volume
2:38node. However, a lot of people did want
2:40a deep dive purely into order flow,
2:43right? And how to understand that.
2:44>> So, let's give them the basics. I think
2:45like a lot of people get very
2:47intimidated with order flow. They see
2:48that, they think it's noise, they see
2:50all this complex stuff when in reality
2:52it's very simple once you dumb down just
2:55the basics of the driving mechanics of
2:57the market and how the market is very
2:59similar to an auction. And when you
3:01understand an auction, that's an edge in
3:03short-term trading and being able to
3:04read the order flow in a simple way can
3:07be relatable to no matter what trading
3:09strategy you use. And I feel like a lot
3:11of people say that they don't need order
3:12flow and I'm good with just candlesticks
3:14alone, but if you use order flow and I'm
3:16a firm believer of this, no matter what
3:18trading strategy you use, ICT, um
3:21fair smart money concepts, Fibonacci,
3:23supply demand, any trading strategy, if
3:25you can implement order flow with that
3:26strategy, you'll get better
3:28risk-to-reward ratios and you'll take
3:30better high-quality confirmations with
3:32that strategy if you can add a layer of
3:34order flow to your confirmations.
3:36>> Definitely. And definitely. And I you
3:38know, even just the insight we got on
3:39the last episode, you know, showed
3:41showed that really and showcased that on
3:43a high level. But then today I think the
3:45people are going to really have their
3:46eyes opened and just as you said, seems
3:48complex on the surface, but really if
3:49you You understand what it's
3:50representing, it can be very very simple
3:53and complement your trading massively.
3:54>> Right. So, I really want to dive into
3:56just the basics so anybody with any
3:58strategy can use this as an extra layer
4:00of confluence in their trading. So,
4:03we have to first understand what drives
4:05a market or what makes up a market. Now,
4:08in today's day and age, technology has
4:10taken a complete change in the markets
4:12and with technology, we have a bunch of
4:14different softwares and tools on the
4:15computers that just give us the same
4:18information that we could have had if we
4:20had no computer back in the '80s or back
4:23in the '90s when uh people were trading
4:25in the pits. So, the concepts are
4:26relatable, it's just technology's giving
4:28us information in a different way. So, I
4:30want to dumb it down and get into that
4:32information with new technology based on
4:35the concepts of old school trading back
4:38in the pits without even charts. So,
4:39regardless of any market, any stock,
4:42forex, futures, penny stocks, options,
4:45there's going to be a buyer and a seller
4:48to every single transaction.
4:50In the industry, everybody says that
4:52there's more buyers and sellers, there's
4:53more sellers and buyers, but that's
4:55completely false. In a market, there
4:56could be only one buyer and one seller
4:58and for them to come together, that's a
5:00completed transaction.
5:01>> Mhm.
5:02>> We could have multiple buyers, multiple
5:03sellers, but for a transaction to get
5:04completed, a buyer has to come to a
5:07seller to complete a transaction.
5:10On top of every transaction, there's
5:12going to be either a limit order
5:15or a market order.
5:17And there can never be
5:18two limit orders, there can never be two
5:20market orders. A limit order, a market
5:22order has to hit a limit order for a
5:24completed transaction to occur. Now,
5:27it's very important to understand
5:28there's multiple different participants
5:30in the auction and this has to do with
5:32bids and asks in the market. Now, let's
5:36talk about the first participant, which
5:38is a passive participant. This is seen
5:41as someone who is placing a limit order
5:43on the order book. They are adding
5:45liquidity to the market. So, if
5:46someone's placing a limit order on the
5:48market, they are wanting to buy that
5:51stock or that instrument for a specified
5:53price or better. Let's say Apple is
5:55trading at $100 and I'm willing to pay
5:58$90 for it. I place a limit order to buy
6:03on the bid.
6:04I'm placing a bid at call it $90.
6:07>> Yeah.
6:08>> Now, flip this and let's say now we're a
6:11seller.
6:12We want to sell Apple stock trading at
6:14$100. We're specifying we want to sell
6:16it on the ask or people call this the
6:20offer.
6:20>> Mhm.
6:22>> For call it $110. So, there's two
6:24different participants. When we're
6:25passively buying, we are buying on the
6:28bid. When we are passively selling, we
6:29are selling on the ask.
6:31Now, flip this, there's going to be
6:33aggressive
6:35participants.
6:36And these are market orders.
6:39So, a market order, essentially, if you
6:41are looking to buy something, you are
6:43buying on the ask.
6:46And if you're selling something, you are
6:48selling
6:49on the bid.
6:51>> Interesting.
6:51>> So, for a completed transaction to
6:53occur, we have to have a limit order
6:56hitting an aggressive market order.
6:58Someone's passive in the market and for
7:00that transaction to get complete, an
7:01aggressor has to come and hit that
7:03passive order.
7:04When we place limit orders, we're buying
7:06on the bid, selling on the ask. When
7:07we're placing a market order, if we're
7:09buying, we're buying on the ask and
7:10selling on the bid. So, think about
7:12this. If we are an aggressive
7:13participant in the market for us to buy,
7:16we have to buy from somebody
7:20who is selling on the ask. A buyer hits
7:23a seller. If we are looking to sell
7:25something, we sell on the bid to
7:27somebody who is buying on the bid. For
7:30every transaction, there's an aggressor
7:32and then there's a passive participant
7:33in terms of a market or a limit order.
7:35And this is very crucial. This is the
7:37basics to an auction because
7:40no matter what order flow tool you use
7:41or how you view the market, this is what
7:44forms a market and this is how
7:47candlesticks form, this is how line
7:49charts form, this is how a market moves
7:51up or down. Whether we talk about cars,
7:53watches, stocks, this is the driving
7:56factor of a market. So, passive
8:02aggressive
8:04sell on
8:07bid
8:09buy on ask
8:13buy on
8:15bid
8:16sell on
8:18ask
8:20All right, so now how we relate this to
8:23how we can gain an edge in the market is
8:24let's act like you own a house
8:27and Riz is selling his house
8:30and he listed it on the market and he
8:32has an asking price
8:35of $100,000.
8:37Carmine comes by.
8:39Carmine's in the market to buy a house
8:42and Carmine
8:44says Riz, that's too much money for that
8:46house.
8:46>> Mhm.
8:47>> I'm willing to buy your house at
8:48$90,000. Carmine is bidding now.
8:52>> Yeah.
8:53>> for $90,000.
8:56Two things could happen. Riz says no way
8:58and Carmine has to say, all right Riz,
9:00you know what? I take your $100,000
9:02offer. What that does is if you stay
9:05firm to your asking price, you are
9:07placing a passive order cuz you're
9:09adding liquidity to the market, you're
9:10adding a house for sale in the market.
9:13You are selling cuz you are asking to
9:15sell and Carmine comes along and he's
9:17buying to your asking price.
9:20Flip this a little bit. Now,
9:22Carmine's not willing to pay $100,000
9:25and Carmine wants to buy for $90,000.
9:27Riz, you have your house listed for 3
9:29months, you can't sell it. You say, you
9:30know what Carmine? I'm willing to hit
9:32your bid at $90,000. Now, Riz hits my
9:35bid at $90,000. The market theoretically
9:38moves down because now the the
9:40transaction got occurred at a lower
9:42price, and Riz essentially
9:45sold to me on the bid because I was
9:48bidding for that house passively at
9:50$90,000. That was the price that I was
9:52willing to pay.
9:53>> Got you. Yeah.
9:53>> And we relate this to the market. In
9:55simple terms, this is just one
9:56transaction, but in the market, there's
9:58thousands and millions of transactions
10:00on a daily basis, and we can use this to
10:02our advantage, whether we're looking to
10:04capitalize in the market down or looking
10:06in the market to the upside with this
10:08information alone.
10:09>> Mhm.
10:10>> So, now we relate this to the
10:12transactions of any stock, any
10:13instrument in terms of price. We have,
10:16call it Apple stock just for simple
10:17terms, $100, $99, $98, 101, 102. This is
10:22the order book, which shows every single
10:24passive order that someone is either
10:27looking to buy or sell on the market.
10:29So, right now, the market's currently
10:30trading 101 by 100, meaning it's offered
10:33or it's asked at the 101, and it's
10:35bidding for 100. For price to
10:38theoretically move up, what would have
10:41to occur here is we would need
10:42aggressive participants buying on the
10:45ask
10:46over nine contracts. So, let's just say
10:4910 hit the market. What that would do is
10:51is it would bring the market up to trade
10:53101.
10:55We would remove the nine, and one extra
10:58would make this 12 if nobody adds or
11:01pulls to the market.
11:02>> Mhm.
11:02>> And this is the driving factor of the
11:04market is we would need aggressive
11:06participants. It could be hundreds,
11:08thousands of contracts to aggressively
11:10hit all the passive sellers asking to
11:13sell for the market to move up, and we
11:15would need all the aggressive sellers
11:17selling on the bid, call it 10 + 17 + 8
11:21is 35 contracts. Let's just say 40
11:24contracts hit the market right here. It
11:26would remove all these bids and bring
11:28the market down $3 or three points in
11:31this example. And this is the driving
11:33factor. So, in the market, it's safe to
11:35say that there could be more aggressive
11:37participants than passive participants.
11:40But, it's not safe to say that there are
11:41more buyers than sellers because at
11:43every single transaction, a buyer is
11:45hitting a seller. So, our job in the
11:47concepts of order flow is to kind of
11:49pinpoint who is aggressive in the
11:51market. Because aggressive is what gives
11:53us the intention. You can't fake orders
11:56that hit the market, but you could fake
11:58orders that don't hit the market, which
11:59could be in the form of a limit order.
12:01So, a lot of people say there's
12:02spoofing, and I'm going to show
12:03everybody examples on my charts in a few
12:04minutes. But, you can see spoofing
12:07occur, and you could use that to your
12:08advantage, and you'll see that in the
12:09trade example that I'm going to show.
12:11But, the main concept to the strategy is
12:13understanding who is aggressive in the
12:15market, and who has an agenda to bring
12:17it up or down, and then essentially
12:19follow their footsteps. We can also use
12:21it to our advantage by seeing a lot of
12:23aggressive participants in the market.
12:25And if so many traders are aggressive,
12:27but the market doesn't budge, it would
12:29be very safe to say that somebody is
12:30passive in the market, and that's where
12:32support or resistance forms. So, support
12:35and resistance forms just simply by more
12:38passive sellers at that level or more
12:39passive buyers at that level. If there's
12:41not enough aggressive participants,
12:43aggressive buyers to take us above
12:44passive sellers, the market's going to
12:46resist there, and that's why a
12:47resistance level actually forms.
12:50All right. So, there's three main ways
12:51we can relate this to a candlestick
12:53chart. Number one is let's say we see
12:55the market rally up, and it comes to a
12:58level of resistance in this area right
13:00here.
13:01And as the market's rallying up, we see
13:03a very large seller sitting here, call
13:05it 1,000 contracts at whatever price
13:08this is right here. If the market's
13:09rallying up, and we only see, call it,
13:11900 contracts hitting the seller at
13:141,000, then the market will start
13:16pulling back as there's a wall of
13:18selling activity there. And this is
13:20where we look to capitalize on a quick
13:22short-term pullback.
13:23>> Hey guys, I hope you're enjoying this
13:25episode so far, and don't forget we send
13:28every single strategy breakdown for
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15:37let's get back to the episode.
15:38>> Similarly, the market's rallying up and
15:42then we pull back down. On this
15:44pullback, if there's a significant
15:46amount of buyers, call it 100 contracts,
15:48and only 90 contracts sell here,
15:52then the market will be forced to bounce
15:54and rally up, and this is where we're
15:56looking to capitalize on the order flow.
15:58>> Mhm.
15:58>> Now, with the order flow, it's not
16:00really important to watch it at every
16:01single price at every single minute,
16:03tick by tick, day by day, second by
16:05second. It's important to watch it at
16:07levels of interest because you want to
16:08gauge the volume patterns around
16:10whatever level of interest, and that's
16:12why I think it's really good for any
16:13trading strategy to implement this
16:15>> Mhm.
16:15>> because if you have your levels of
16:16interest, regardless of how you trade,
16:18you can get much better entries and take
16:21higher quality setups with better
16:22risk-to-reward ratios.
16:24>> And you can have more confidence behind
16:25you.
16:26>> Way more confidence. In fact, once you
16:27trade order flow, you're never not going
16:29to trade order flow. I don't know any
16:30order flow trader that goes through it
16:32and then goes back because once you
16:34understand that this is the driving
16:35factor of the market, it is a complete
16:37game changer in your trading.
16:39So, now point number two
16:41would be, let's say we see the market
16:43rally up, and now we're coming into our
16:45level of resistance, and we see a lot of
16:49aggressive buying volume come in here.
16:52Thousands of contracts, thousands
16:53hitting the market, taking liquidity
16:55away and hitting every single passive
16:57seller selling on the ask. These are
16:59aggressive buyers buying on the ask to
17:02passive sellers who are selling on the
17:04ask.
17:04>> Mhm.
17:05>> Tons of buying volume comes in, but the
17:07market does not move anywhere. This is a
17:09very good indication of absorption, and
17:12the market would then be forced to pull
17:14back as well. When there's a lot of
17:16volume coming through, and we could even
17:18draw this to the downside. Let's see if
17:19the market's selling off.
17:22And we come into our level of support.
17:25And as we come into the level of
17:26support, there's tons of selling volume
17:28here, but
17:30the market cannot sell off. In fact,
17:32there's even more selling volume here at
17:34the level of support than there was that
17:37dropped the market severely to the
17:38downside. Now, we have more volume here
17:41than we did when the market dropped, but
17:42the market is not going down. This is a
17:44very good indication that somebody is
17:47buying here passively and absorbing all
17:50the selling volume and it's a good to
17:52follow their footsteps and look for a
17:53possible bounce to the upside. So,
17:55that's called absorption when there's a
17:56lot of aggressors or aggressive
17:59participants coming in the market, but
18:01no follow through. It's a very big red
18:02flag.
18:03>> Movement movement's not taking place.
18:04>> Exactly. And you could really only see
18:05this through the order flow. You could
18:07kind of see it off of a smaller time
18:08frame candlestick chart, but you're not
18:10going to get the accurate details as you
18:12would by reading the volume coming in.
18:13>> You know what I mean? You can try and
18:14guess, but there won't be confidence and
18:16you'll see that.
18:17>> Exactly. Exactly. This will give you a
18:18reason why the market may reject or a
18:20reason why the market's consolidating
18:22there. And then point number three is
18:24one of my favorites and a lot of I know
18:26like ICT traders or smart money concepts
18:28will love this one. It's just a simple
18:29stop run or stop hunt.
18:31>> Mhm.
18:32>> Now, in terms of order flow, why these
18:33occur is let's say we see the market
18:35coming down again
18:37and
18:38we then consolidate here for quite some
18:40time and we build volume. This
18:42consolidation in this range right here
18:44would be safe to say that there's some
18:45type of trader looking to um accumulate
18:49or get into a larger position because
18:50you need to do so on periods of
18:52consolidation.
18:53>> Yeah.
18:54>> In fact, in the market when a larger
18:56participant has an agenda to to join the
18:58market and get in long or short, he
19:00needs to buy when other people are
19:01selling and he needs to sell or they
19:03need to sell when other people are
19:04buying.
19:05>> Yeah.
19:05>> So, for them to get in with a larger
19:08position, they need others to sell
19:10because again, if they're selling,
19:11they're buying from them. They can't buy
19:13when everybody else is buying and they
19:14can't sell when everybody else is
19:15selling.
19:16So, as the market's selling off here and
19:18we consolidate, there's going to be
19:20plenty of examples that I'm going to
19:21show you all in a bit where the market
19:23consolidates and builds volume near a
19:25low or rallies up and it builds volume
19:28near the high.
19:29>> Mhm.
19:30>> This does not typically typically
19:32indicate a low or a high is in. So, in
19:35terms of volume, a low or a high is
19:38formed when there's a lack of liquidity.
19:40>> Mhm.
19:40>> When there's consolidation, there is a
19:42lot of liquidity there. So, this is why
19:44stop hunts occur is when the market then
19:46breaks down and how many traders enter
19:49this short when it breaks down a period
19:51of consolidation for the market to
19:52eventually rally up
19:55and stop them out and then it continues
19:56moving up in their direction. Or
19:59they take the market short here,
20:01eventually it breaks out, stops them
20:03out, and then eventually reverses on
20:05them and they could have made money if
20:06they weren't in that stop hunt.
20:08>> Yeah.
20:08>> These levels of stop hunts essentially
20:11are periods of
20:13illiquidity or periods of a rejection of
20:16a longer time frame participant stepping
20:18in the market and this would validate a
20:20valid low or a valid high forming in the
20:22market. And this is crucial to stop run,
20:24stop hunts
20:25because they indicate the market is not
20:28agreeing with prices being this low and
20:30in terms of an auction, the only way the
20:32market could go is the opposite
20:34direction to attract other participants
20:36as it's moving in that direction.
20:38>> Mhm.
20:38>> So, now that we see these concepts
20:40visually on the whiteboard and we drew
20:42it out, let's talk about it on the
20:43charts so everybody can kind of put
20:45these concepts together.
20:47Now, there's three main tools that I use
20:49and again, everybody sees these tools
20:52and they are not complex once you
20:54understand the concepts that I just
20:56explained on the whiteboard and you
20:58understand what you are watching for.
21:00Every single order flow tool shows you
21:01the same information just visually in a
21:04different way and it will always relate
21:06to these points that I just went over on
21:07the whiteboard. So, if anybody ever gets
21:09lost or confused, these points on the
21:10whiteboard are going to be identical to
21:12what I'm explaining, just different
21:14visually.
21:14>> Yeah.
21:15>> So, on my charts right here, we see
21:17what's called a depth of market. And I
21:19think this is one of the most important
21:20tools in terms of order flow and in
21:22terms of reading the tape because it
21:24gives us so much information that we
21:26cannot get off of a chart alone.
21:29>> Mhm.
21:29>> The most important thing that we're
21:30going to see here is every single
21:32passive order on the market will be
21:34displayed as a limit order, which I'm
21:36currently highlighting in the dark red
21:38columns. What this indicates is every
21:41single passive order at specific prices
21:44that hit the market. So, at 56.47,
21:47there's 29 contracts someone's looking
21:49to passively sell or asking to sell at
21:52that price.
21:52>> Mhm.
21:53>> Now,
21:54you want to go to 56.50, up here,
21:57there's 113 contracts offering to sell
22:00at 56.50.
22:02Flip this now to the bid side, the blue
22:03column, there's eight contracts looking
22:06to buy at 56.46.
22:08And then there's 33 contracts looking to
22:10buy at 56.45 and 3/4. These are passive
22:14orders on the order book. Now, for a
22:17completed transaction to occur, let's
22:19say there's 13 aggressive buyers come
22:21in, they're hitting all these 13 sellers
22:23on the ask.
22:24>> Yeah.
22:24>> 21 buyers come in, they're hitting all
22:27these at the 50 at the 56.46 and 1/2s.
22:30Now, let's say a thousand contract order
22:32comes in. We would wipe away this guy
22:34and we wipe away everyone leading up to
22:36a thousand with the concept of nobody's
22:39adding liquidity to the market.
22:40>> Yeah.
22:41>> This can be seen completed transactions
22:44in terms of a volume profile. So, a lot
22:46of traders use volume profiles.
22:48Probably the second most important tool
22:49in terms of reading the order flow
22:51because this shows completed
22:53transactions. You can't spoof
22:55transactions that get completed.
22:57>> Mhm.
22:57>> So, this is a volume profile and this
22:59splits buy versus sell data. 20
23:02contracts, somebody sold, aggressively
23:05hit the bid, passively bought. 49
23:07contracts, somebody aggressively bought,
23:10and somebody passively sold, and so on.
23:12In terms of the volume profile, it shows
23:14completed transactions.
23:16And then we're going to see delta, which
23:17I'm going to go over in a bit. And then
23:19we have a session volume profile, which
23:21just adds the two columns. We see 69
23:23contracts here. If you add 20 and 49,
23:25that equals 69. That's total volume.
23:27>> Yeah.
23:28>> Now, the second thing, this is the solar
23:30system chart that everybody gets very
23:32confused with.
23:34This is I would say where I find 70% of
23:36my trades come from. A heat map, because
23:39what I love about it is it shows not
23:41only current data, but it shows
23:43historical data. Let's say I go to the
23:44bathroom. I walk out of my office, and I
23:46miss something to occur. Well, I could
23:48go back and see historical data, which
23:50has happened 10 minutes ago at a
23:51specific price. Versus the depth of
23:53market is kind of only showing me
23:55information or new information that's
23:57occurring right now.
23:58>> Yeah.
23:58>> So, in this example, what a heat map
24:00shows is the price will be all the way
24:02to the right.
24:03And any large red, orange, colored line
24:08under price indicates a passive order on
24:12the order book. So, here we see this
24:14orange line at the lows. And if I just
24:16hovered over it, that means somebody is
24:18bidding for 70 contracts at 5638. So,
24:22there's a passive buyer looking to buy
24:24at 5638, 70 contracts. Could be one guy,
24:27it could be 30 guys.
24:30Now,
24:31also highlighting over the bubble, what
24:34the color indicates which side of the
24:36market is on. Red is obviously sell,
24:38green is obviously buy.
24:39>> Yeah.
24:40>> But now we had 70 passive buyers at the
24:435638s,
24:45there was only 61 contracts that
24:47aggressively sold into the 71 buyers
24:50here. Guess what happened? The market
24:52went up, because there wasn't enough
24:53aggressive participants to overtake the
24:57passive buyers buying there. And that's
24:59where support forms. Where this is where
25:01we look to gain the edge off the market
25:03trying to bounce to the upside.
25:05>> Of course.
25:05>> Now, I also have a footprint chart.
25:07Again, same information, just visually
25:09different.
25:10I have it's a custom footprint chart
25:12that I created and it's just three
25:14different things that it shows me. And
25:16column number one is going to show me
25:17total volume for that bar. So, the top
25:20of the bar we see 84. That just
25:22indicates that at 57.97 and 3/4, this
25:25price right here, there was 84 total
25:28volume. And why this is important is
25:30because this will show me on this
25:32histogram
25:33there's not much volume being transacted
25:35here at the high, which is a very good
25:37reversal indication.
25:39>> Mhm.
25:40>> The second column shows me delta, which
25:42is just shows which side of the market
25:44is more aggressive. So, if a delta is
25:47blue or a delta is positive, it
25:50indicates that there are more aggressive
25:52buyers hitting the market.
25:54>> Mhm.
25:54>> And if the delta is red, it indicates
25:56there's more aggressive sellers than
25:59there are buyers at that specific
26:00prices. So, delta shows me who or which
26:03participant at that specific price is
26:06more aggressive. And this is significant
26:08because I really only care about who is
26:11aggressive in the market because this is
26:13where it shows completed transactions
26:15occurring at that price. And then column
26:17number three is just a picture of the
26:18volume profile, and there's specific
26:20patterns that I look for such as like a
26:23B shape or a P shape in terms of the
26:25structure of the volume. Here we can see
26:27a B shape, which just indicates that
26:28buyers or sellers are present um based
26:31on the structure of the volume being
26:33transacted.
26:34>> Mhm.
26:34>> Now, going into the first trade, this
26:36was um
26:37on May 9th, and I do want to say that in
26:39the month of May I made $203,000
26:42using just these concepts. Keeping it
26:44very simple, focusing on quality setups,
26:47and maintaining high risk to reward uh
26:49ratios. This trade was a 4 and 1/2 to
26:51one realized risk reward ratio. It was
26:5420 ES contracts and a $20,000
26:58profit. Now, what we're going to see
27:01here and the game plan for this I
27:02highlighted was as long as the market
27:05rejects 5714 supply
27:08and the lower high is placed, I am a
27:10bear and I want to look to place shorts.
27:12>> Yeah.
27:13>> Now, how I started this whole lesson off
27:16is that you can use this with any
27:17strategy, supply demand. If you want to
27:19use this to any ICT terms or any type of
27:22smart money concepts, Fibonacci's. This
27:25is just an added layer of confidence and
27:27an added layer of conviction. So, in
27:29this example we have the market at this
27:30level of supply. I wanted a lower high
27:32to be placed and I got short 5706
27:35going for about a 12-point target, 12 to
27:39about 22-point target to the downside.
27:42Now, here's our first rejection of the
27:43level of supply and directly after this
27:46the market placed three different higher
27:48lows and I took two trades off of these
27:51lower highs being placed. I want to show
27:53you all how we can get confirmation off
27:55of this rejection.
27:57So, looking at the heat map again, no
27:59reason to overcomplicate it. We see a
28:01thicker line at the top. That just means
28:04there is a thick wall of passive sellers
28:06sitting here. Think of it as resistance.
28:08>> Yeah.
28:09>> I highlighted that there's 111 contracts
28:12to sell cuz it's on the ask at 5710,
28:16which is this price right here.
28:19Someone is looking to passively sell
28:21directly under this level of supply
28:23>> Mhm.
28:24>> that we just rejected right over here
28:26at 5710,
28:28which is this right here,
28:30111 contracts at 5710.
28:34The market rallies up and there's
28:36aggressive buying denoted by this large
28:39green bubble which just indicates
28:40aggressive buyers hitting the ask and
28:44buying from someone who is selling on
28:46the ask.
28:48The market, this to me is a good
28:50confirmation because this indicates 77
28:54buyers hit at 5710. You can see this in
28:57the volume profile right here. There was
28:5977 aggressive buyers, but there was 111
29:03uh passive sellers. So, there was less
29:06aggressive buyers than there were
29:08passive sellers forming the wall of
29:10resistance here. And to me, when there
29:12is a
29:13influx or more passive sellers at a
29:16level than there are aggressive buyers,
29:18this is a very good signal that the
29:20market in the short term wants to
29:21quickly pull back. And this is where I
29:24find an edge in looking to capitalize
29:26and placing risk for a bearish position.
29:28Here on the candlestick chart, we could
29:30see the rejection. We could see my entry
29:32over here around 56 5706.
29:35And this is a good entry. The market
29:37pulled back. It dropped about
29:3914 points or so, and it missed my 84s
29:42target down here. I didn't scale out of
29:43this trade, and I exited this trade for
29:45break even.
29:46Few minutes later, the market revisits
29:48this 5710 level, places another lower
29:52high, and sellers appear again, and I
29:54take another entry short 5706. And this
29:57trade eventually hit my first target,
29:59and then hit my second target at the
30:01lows. And to the same thing that we're
30:03going to see here, there's aggressive
30:04buying. We could see a volume by time if
30:06you want to use that.
30:08We could see this large passive seller
30:10that was sitting here, and we know that
30:12there's a lot of aggressive buying
30:14denoted by this large green bubble. Yet,
30:16there's a passive seller sitting here
30:18forming a wall. If these aggressive
30:20buyers cannot take the market above this
30:22passive seller, the market's only going
30:23to have one choice in an auction, and
30:25that's to advertise prices much lower.
30:27The market is a mechanism to just
30:29advertise price. So, the way I look at
30:31the market is it's just a mechanism
30:33that's saying, "Hey, is this a good
30:34price? Is this a bad price?"
30:36And if it's a bad price, the market's
30:38going to facilitate trade. If it's a
30:39good price, it's still going to
30:40facilitate trade. So, our job is to look
30:43for the advertising um components or the
30:46advertising opportunities where the
30:47market maybe might not agree with that
30:50for a reversal or may agree with it for
30:52a continuation move.
30:53>> Yeah.
30:54>> And then directly after this aggressive
30:56buying came in at the highs and that
30:57large passive seller was sitting there,
30:59we could see a lot of red bubbles coming
31:00in and people see say that oh, if it's
31:03easy as just spotting a red bubble, then
31:05everybody would be millionaires. And
31:07it's with context is important. This is
31:09just indicating that the guys are
31:11trapped at the highs. There's a seller
31:13sitting here and there's aggressive
31:14follow-through to the sell side by the
31:16red bubbles bringing the market much
31:17lower.
31:18>> Mhm.
31:19>> And then on the footprint chart, we
31:20could see the same exact thing. We want
31:22to look for a lot of aggressive buying,
31:24which is denoted by the large positive
31:26delta.
31:27Aggressive buying with no
31:28follow-through. If somebody's buying,
31:30who is selling? It's the passive seller.
31:32And then the market rejects and sells
31:33much lower. Uh and that was that. And
31:36then this is where I was able to get
31:37short. Seller's present, resisting the
31:39market again,
31:41capitalizing on this move down. And we
31:44talked about this in the last Chart
31:45Fanatics episode with the CLC rule,
31:47context, location, confirmation.
31:48>> That's right.
31:49>> It's very important and I think why a
31:50lot of traders get intimidated with
31:52order flow is because they don't know
31:53how to use it the right way or they're
31:55looking for the wrong things.
31:56>> Mhm.
31:57>> There's going to be tons of bids and
31:59asks. There's going to be tons of
32:00aggressive large volume coming in. But
32:03what's important is where that is being
32:04transacted, the location of the move,
32:07and the context of the market. Is it in
32:09an uptrend? Is it in a downtrend? Are we
32:10consolidating? And then most
32:12importantly, we could get our
32:13confirmation from this. Now, what I'm
32:15trying to get here is that if you look
32:16here, there's technically
32:18a larger passive seller sitting here by
32:20this line right here.
32:21>> Mhm.
32:22>> But the market rallies up and the market
32:24essentially just holds this and
32:25consolidates. This is not a bearish
32:28indication. This indicates the market's
32:29accepting this move.
32:31Versus the market coming off to this
32:33lower high where it originally rejected.
32:35And now the offers appear here with
32:37significantly more
32:39aggressive buying hitting the passive
32:41selling. And now directly after that the
32:43market sells off. So, context, location,
32:46confirmation is important. I see a lot
32:48of traders blindly going after this.
32:50They see bids, they see asks, they see a
32:51lot of volume coming in. And they
32:53automatically make the assumption that
32:54the market's going to move in the
32:55direction they think it's going to head.
32:56>> Mhm.
32:57>> Context, location, confirmation is
32:59significant. And it has to be done at a
33:02level of interest.
33:03>> Mhm.
33:03>> You're going to see tons of bids. Look
33:04at this example. The market was selling
33:06off, lower lows and lower highs. You see
33:08a bid here.
33:09Fills, market continues to sell off. A
33:12bid here, fills, market continues to
33:15sell off, and so on and so on.
33:17>> Yeah.
33:17>> The CLC rule is important. This was in
33:19the middle of the range. This was not at
33:20a level of support or demand. This was
33:22just
33:24uh traders actively looking to place
33:26orders. We don't know the real agenda
33:28behind why bids or asks are getting
33:30placed. This could be a seller looking
33:32to cover out of a short position. This
33:34could be a new buyer looking to get into
33:36a long position.
33:36>> Yeah.
33:37>> We don't know. This is where context,
33:39location, and confirmation is
33:40significant. And if you look at the two
33:42differences here, look at the first time
33:44the market comes up into this offer, we
33:46basically hang out.
33:47>> Mhm.
33:48>> Versus this time, we come into this
33:49offer, look at all the aggressive
33:51selling coming in thereafter, and that's
33:53when we have the continuation to the
33:54downside.
33:55>> Yeah.
33:56>> And this was a $20,000 profit. Now, this
33:59trade
34:00a $35,000 profit. This is my biggest
34:02trade year-to-date. Um so far. This was
34:0430 ES contracts. My risk was
34:06standardized around $4,500,
34:09and this was an 8:1 risk-to-reward
34:11ratio. Why I love order flow is because
34:13I'm getting in before the move with the
34:16best risk-to-reward ratio, with a high
34:18probability of the market moving in my
34:20direction if I'm correct on the
34:21analysis.
34:22So, what we're going to see here, and
34:24the plan was
34:25watching the previous day's low at 5846.
34:30The market's going to sell off into the
34:32previous day low, and we're going to see
34:34buying activity, and I take the market
34:36long.
34:37Another very important point to
34:38understand in the market is when a level
34:40is super clear, or a lot of traders are
34:42watching a specific level that every
34:44single bot every single trader can see,
34:47the reliability of it working is going
34:48to be slim. So, in this example, we can
34:50see a clear level of resistance in the
34:52pre-market that I've highlighted right
34:53here on multiple different tests.
34:55Theoretically and usually, the market
34:57likes to break these levels to pick up
34:59liquidity because they know a lot of
35:00traders are either going to short that
35:02move or their stop losses are going to
35:03be placed above that.
35:04>> Yeah.
35:05>> So, my thesis was to long a pullback
35:07under the previous day's low targeting
35:10the very clear level of resistance.
35:13Levels that are obvious, levels that my
35:1490-year-old grandmother could draw on
35:16her charts because they're so easy to
35:17see are not going to be reliable, and
35:19they're good levels of liquidity where
35:21the market may want to head towards.
35:23In this example, I got long 5844
35:27for a 30-point target and four points
35:29worth of risk. That was about a 10 to 1
35:31um
35:32plan versus the reward ratio.
35:34Now, what I'm going to show is the
35:34candlestick charts. We're going to see
35:35two We're going to see four 1-minute
35:37candles. 1 2 3 and 4 here.
35:41Let's look at the order flow as the
35:43market's breaking the previous day's
35:45low.
35:45As it's breaking the previous day low,
35:47we see a lot of aggressive selling
35:49volume come into what I highlighted as
35:51the previous day low as the purple line.
35:53As it's breaking the previous day low,
35:56there's signs of accumulation. Remember,
35:59a lot of aggressive selling, we break
36:01the low, and the market hangs out here
36:03for about 2 minutes time building
36:05volume.
36:06As I stated earlier when I was drawing
36:08on the whiteboard, when the market
36:09builds volume at a low or builds volume
36:12at a high, it's a very good chance that
36:14there's accumulation happening there,
36:16but there's a very good chance the
36:18market needs to break in this example
36:19the low to pick up liquidity, show
36:23there's a lack of interest as the the
36:25breaking down for then the market should
36:27reverse. So, a very good reversal signal
36:29is if you see a lot of volume at a
36:31higher low, let the market break the
36:34higher low. And in this example, we're
36:35going to see the low break.
36:38It already broke the previous day low,
36:39but we're going to break this
36:40consolidation low.
36:43And this now is once it broke, we see
36:46the bids filling.
36:48We see the aggressive selling coming in.
36:50We see the high volume come in.
36:52We see the volume tail. This shows you
36:54there's a lack of interest. And if
36:55there's a lack of interest, this is
36:56where reversal comes
36:58at these prices, and the market breaks
37:00the previous low, and automatically
37:02reclaims it. If you're a candlestick
37:04trader,
37:05yes, you can enter when the market
37:06breaks the low and we see a really large
37:08green bullish engulfing candle. But that
37:11might make you get long up here at the
37:1253s, 52s. Versus, I got long down here
37:16at the 44s, when the order flow
37:19indicated that there's a lack of
37:22market moving down and continuing lower.
37:24Um because we can see this little bit of
37:26a volume tail, we see the accumulation,
37:29we see the volume the bids filling, and
37:31we see a failed breakdown under the
37:32previous low.
37:34This is good enough confirmation for me
37:35to get long. I'm not getting long up
37:38here, waiting for the market to move up.
37:40I'm getting long when the order flow
37:41tells me to get long.
37:43Directly after this, kind of putting all
37:45the concepts together here.
37:47Directly after this stop run hunt,
37:49right? We can see the bids filling a lot
37:51clearer here. We see all these passive
37:54bids getting hit by the aggressive
37:55sellers.
37:57Directly after this, the market reclaims
37:59back up.
38:00Then we pull back, and there's still
38:03bids here, 58.47,
38:05bidding.
38:06Think of this as a floor. Think of this
38:07as a support level.
38:09>> Mhm.
38:09>> The market's trying to move down here,
38:11but it cannot because there's a passive
38:13buyer
38:14basically
38:15supporting price and resisting it from
38:16going lower.
38:18We can see this off the candlestick
38:19chart. And again, this is why a lot of
38:21traders say, "I don't need the order
38:22flow to see this.
38:23But you will know why the driving
38:26mechanics are supporting the market.
38:29If you don't use the order flow, we
38:30could see it's supporting these the
38:31previous day low very very well. That's
38:33totally fine. But by the time you enter
38:35off the candles moving up, you're going
38:37to get such a late entry.
38:39Versus getting long at the order flow
38:42when it tells us to get in at that
38:43moment. Now,
38:45directly after this, we see four
38:47different attempts. 1 2 3 four different
38:50attempts of supporting the previous day
38:52low again, and we're going to see the
38:54same exact thing. The bids supporting
38:56the move after just gives more
38:57conviction. Like you said earlier, the
38:59order flow gives us more conviction. It
39:01gives us more satisfaction that buyers
39:05are here and we're following the
39:06footsteps of the buyers. It's not If I
39:09trade without order flow, I'm trading
39:10blindly. I need to see this because it
39:12gives me confidence that I am on the
39:14right side of the market with the right
39:16participants that I'm looking to trade
39:18with.
39:19We could see it supported well here,
39:20supported well here, supported well
39:22here, and supported well here on four
39:24different times giving me more
39:26conviction that this move was going to
39:28work out. And again, this was my biggest
39:29profit of the year so far, $35,000,
39:33and an 8:1 realized risk reward ratio.
39:37Now,
39:38here's another setup.
39:39And this, similarly to a stop run stop
39:42hunt, and we're going to combine all the
39:44the concepts that I've gone over so far.
39:46This was a $31,000 profit, about a 7:1
39:49risk reward ratio.
39:51And this was longing the market on a
39:53pullback and looking to take profits at
39:56this low volume node. I'm not sure if
39:57anybody watching this has seen my last
39:59episode on low volume nodes.
40:00>> I'm sure they have, yeah.
40:01>> But um this target right here was based
40:03off of a low volume node. If you haven't
40:05seen that video, I'd recommend going and
40:06watching the previous Chart Fanatics
40:08episode.
40:09Now, this is where people say order flow
40:12is BS because there's spoofing.
40:15Spoofing happens. Spoofing is
40:16technically illegal, but you can see
40:18this with the order flow, and this will
40:20give you an advantage.
40:22So, this was before the market opened
40:24up, and we're going to see some pretty
40:26thick passive buyers under the
40:27pre-market lows.
40:29Now, what we're going to see here is at
40:326026,
40:34we see 1,300 contracts.
40:37At 6022, we see 1,000 contracts,
40:41complete outliers in the data. And
40:43again, we could see this by these
40:44thicker lines or darker color lines.
40:46This is the whole concept of passive
40:48buyers or passive sellers.
40:50Now, what's interesting here, and this
40:52is why don't pay much attention to
40:54passive orders that do not get filled,
40:57because in this example, the market's
40:59going to sell off, and these orders were
41:01pulled, and they were not filled. Well,
41:03Kamikaze, how do we know that? If we
41:05were to look at the volume profile at
41:066026,
41:08there wasn't 1,000 contracts that got
41:09transacted here. There's only 400.
41:12If we were to really zoom in on this, we
41:14would see that this red red line there
41:16pulled, and he never got filled.
41:18Similarly, we see this red line just
41:19disappear right here, and no volume
41:22being transacted in terms of 1,000
41:24contracts at 6022. So, these orders were
41:27pulled, they were not filled, and this I
41:29guess is why people don't like order
41:30flow is because they say it could be
41:32spoofed, but in the previous examples,
41:34you can't spoof completed transactions,
41:36you can only spoof limit orders. But
41:37when you could see spoof limit orders,
41:39you could use that information to your
41:41advantage. So, despite those bids
41:43spoofing,
41:44the market still held to this after the
41:46market opened. So, here's a 9:30 open
41:49right here.
41:50>> Yeah.
41:50>> The market pulled back and held 6026
41:53well. It held 6022 very well. And we
41:56actually supported where these previous
41:58bids that never got filled were. So,
42:02that's a little bit of a red flag or
42:03something that doesn't look organic or
42:05doesn't look natural to the market's
42:08auction.
42:09The way I view the market is that I'm
42:10looking for things that are not organic,
42:13things that are don't look like a normal
42:15trader could do, that looks kind of fake
42:18or artificial to a market's auction. And
42:20anything unusual is something to keep
42:22your eye on
42:24in terms of an edge.
42:25So, the market held that level despite
42:28those bids pulling and not filling. And
42:30that was kind of like, why is that to
42:31me? I don't know why at that moment, but
42:34directly after that the market began to
42:36rally and we bid it much higher. We
42:38could see that on this rally up.
42:39>> Let's take a break for a minute there,
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44:09today.
44:10Now, let's go back to the episode.
44:12Here's what it looks like on a
44:12candlestick chart. Here's our 9:30 open.
44:15Here's the market pulling back and
44:16holding 6026, 6022, and it supported it.
44:20Now, at this moment, this is not
44:21anything that I'm taking a trade off of.
44:23But, directly after the market rallies
44:25up and something significant forms on
44:27the order flow at 6040.
44:30On this rally, 6040 forms a new level of
44:32interest, and I was watching for a
44:34pullback into this level to target
44:37that low volume node uh at the 6060s,
44:40which was the target from the drop to
44:42the downside. Now,
44:44on these 6040s, why that was a level of
44:46interest was significant buying volume.
44:48So, kind of putting the pieces of the
44:50puzzle together. And another way that I
44:52view the market is as a storyteller, and
44:53our job is to read the story the
44:56market's telling us before it tells us
44:58the story in its entirety. And if we can
45:00use context clues and put different
45:02pieces of context together, we can use
45:05those context clues to our advantage and
45:07form hypothesis of where we think the
45:09market's going to head.
45:10On that rally up, looking at the order
45:12flow,
45:14we see significant amounts of buying
45:16volume here, significant amount of
45:18buying volume even here, and even a low
45:21volume node in this footprint range
45:23right here, 6041,
45:26all the way down to about 6034s. Just
45:28significant positive delta or
45:31significant buying volume as the
45:32market's rallying, and this was directly
45:34after the market bounced off those bids
45:37that never got uh filled and then
45:39pulled.
45:40So, what I was watching for, again, a
45:42period of consolidation. When the market
45:44consolidates, it's best to let the
45:46market stop run or stop hunt, break that
45:49period of consolidation, and then
45:51reverse to the upside. So, the scenario
45:54that I was watching for was a break
45:55under the consolidation
45:58a low at 6036. If it could hold,
46:00[snorts]
46:00I would then play longs targeting this
46:02upside level of the low volume node.
46:05Now,
46:06what we're going to see here is 6036.
46:08This is the consolidation range that we
46:10see right here.
46:12Eventually breaks. Here's the
46:14consolidation range. We could see it off
46:15the the heat map. Breaks it.
46:18And we see the bids filling. We see the
46:21passive buyer
46:23getting bought from somebody
46:24aggressively selling here.
46:26Not only does it fill, but it traps
46:28sellers. Think about this.
46:30If traders are seeing this pattern, a
46:31lot of traders call this like an H
46:32pattern.
46:33>> Mhm.
46:34>> Where they they'll short the market
46:35under the H. If a lot of traders are
46:38getting short, come on, how do we know
46:39they're getting short? Well, if you look
46:41at the order flow, you see a lot of
46:42trades hitting the bid. For a trade to
46:44hit the bid, somebody has to sell. So, a
46:45lot of traders are getting short here,
46:47and they are selling to somebody who is
46:49passively buying.
46:50>> Yeah.
46:50>> You're not going to be able to see that
46:51passive buyer if you're looking just at
46:53a candlestick chart.
46:54>> Yeah.
46:55>> And then directly after that, the market
46:57basically reclaims this previous low. It
47:00supports it here, and then you see all
47:02the aggressive buying volume step in
47:05after all that um action that went down.
47:08Looking at the footprint, we see the
47:09level of interest. We see the level of
47:12low volume right here. So, again, even
47:14applying the old concepts of low volume
47:15nodes
47:16>> Mhm.
47:16>> from the previous Chart Fanatics
47:17episode, this low volume node held.
47:20Also, on top of that, we see a delta
47:22outlier. You could kind of could see it
47:24right here of 222 contracts inside of
47:27this low volume node after the market
47:29broke the stop hunt, and then we rally
47:31up. That positive delta indicates
47:33there's more aggressive buyers trying to
47:35lift the market higher.
47:37And this was the best opportunity. It
47:39was the smallest risk. I got long here
47:43at the 5037s. I didn't wait for the
47:45market to break this high right here. I
47:47got long at the low here because it
47:50offered the smallest risk, highest
47:52reward, and the best opportunity. It was
47:55a small three points worth of risk for a
47:58potential 23 points to the upside.
48:01When the order flow tells me when to
48:03enter, I enter. I do not rely on a
48:05candlestick chart to tell me when to
48:06enter. And I think this is such an
48:08important concept that traders have to
48:10realize is candlestick charts skew your
48:12risk to reward ratio. Yes, they may give
48:15you a higher probability of the market
48:18moving in a direction, but with order
48:20flow you can really get precise entries
48:22before the market moves.
48:24What I mean by that is a lot of traders
48:26wait for a 5-minute candle to close or
48:28like a 3-minute candle to close. Fine,
48:30if you have a strategy around that.
48:31Another thing that I do want to say is
48:33that there's no right way to make money
48:34in the market. You could use any
48:35strategy, anything. At the end of the
48:36day it's what works for you, every
48:38individual trader.
48:40But, if we were to wait, let's just say
48:41for a 5-minute candle to close. My
48:44defense to that is what does time or
48:46what does a candle closure have to do
48:49with price?
48:50Price tells us what's happening right
48:52now. Time tells us what happened 3
48:56minutes ago, 5 minutes ago. We want to
48:57know what happened right now. So, let's
48:59just say I got long when the 5-minute
49:01candle closed in this level right here.
49:04I'm long theoretically right here. What
49:07that would mean is it I if I place my
49:09stop loss where my analysis is wrong, I
49:12would have to place it at this low right
49:14here. So, let's act like this is my risk
49:16box. This is how much I'm risking if my
49:18stop loss hits.
49:19Now, let's talk about reward. If I'm
49:21long here, my reward is these 60 60 60
49:2560s. Now, my reward box is this. My
49:28reward box isn't even bigger than my
49:30risk box. So, this is what I mean by
49:32skewing risk to reward. By waiting for a
49:34candlestick closure or waiting for let's
49:37just say a break, just skews our risk to
49:39reward because we saw the buying
49:41activity here. Let's get in when we see
49:43the buying activity. Let's not get in
49:45when we see a 5-minute candle close cuz
49:47that doesn't give us a lot of
49:49information that we're going to use to
49:50our advantage.
49:51Now, later the market pulls back
49:54and this is what I call market structure
49:56demand. A very good concept is if you
49:58see the market sell off, consolidate,
50:00and then rally up, the period of
50:02consolidation, and this is even
50:04validates what I said earlier on the
50:05whiteboard. On the periods of
50:07consolidation, you want to see that stop
50:09hunt. You want to see that stop hunt.
50:10You want to see it break that low,
50:12indicating that a low is in.
50:14>> Mhm.
50:14>> So, here we have the period of
50:15consolidation. We have a drop. We have a
50:18base, and then we have a rally to the
50:19upside. This period of consolidation now
50:22becomes a level of interest. Call it
50:24around 6044.
50:26The market pulls back into this level of
50:27interest.
50:28And at this moment we see six
50:30consecutive red candles to the downside.
50:32>> Mhm.
50:33>> In terms of technical analysis, the
50:34market just placed a lower high. It's
50:36putting in lower lows, and a lot of
50:38traders would consider this very bearish
50:39in terms of a trend.
50:41Especially that, call it, we just broke,
50:43let's just say a trendline as well.
50:44>> Yeah.
50:46>> When you understand the driving
50:47mechanics of the market, this period of
50:48consolidation, there's going to be
50:50buyers factored in there. This is our
50:52context. This is our location. Now we
50:54can look at our confirmation as
50:57look at this aggressive seller,
50:58aggressively selling, hitting the bid to
51:00somebody who is passively buying here.
51:02>> Mhm.
51:03>> The market then bounces. If the selling
51:04cannot take out the passive buying, then
51:07the market will have to bounce and rally
51:10to the upside.
51:11And even going into the order flow, we
51:14see the selling volume.
51:15There was 258 contracts to sell here.
51:18>> Mhm.
51:18>> Yet the market could not even sell off.
51:21Directly above it, look, 100 contracts,
51:23149 contracts, 217 contracts. There's
51:26significantly more volume at the low
51:28than there was on the volume on the sell
51:30off. Yet despite the high volume here,
51:32the market cannot move down because
51:34there's a larger passive buyer
51:36supporting the market, and this is where
51:37support comes in, and this is where the
51:40reversal happened.
51:41>> Just go back to that last where you see
51:42um each of these uh bubbles.
51:45In terms of time wise, how are they
51:47being presented? As you see at the
51:48bottom there, we can see that actually,
51:50you know, per
51:51uh vertical column
51:53>> Right.
51:53>> is a minute.
51:54>> Right.
51:54>> So, you're seeing, you know, this is why
51:56you're able to get these precise entries
51:58quite and being able to move quite
51:59quickly is cuz you would be taking that
52:02information
52:03in real time.
52:05>> Correct.
52:05>> And then, you know, as price starts to
52:07move away after seeing that the there's
52:09aggressive sellers weren't moving the
52:11price any lower, you're then able to
52:12capitalize thereafter.
52:14>> Correct. So, this happened
52:17at 11:27 in probably like 45 seconds.
52:20>> Yeah.
52:20>> And then the next minute opened, this is
52:2311:28.
52:24>> Yeah.
52:24>> So, I mean, this happened maybe in like
52:25a 15-second period.
52:27>> Mhm.
52:27>> Right? So, the the objective here is to
52:29not get in long just because you see
52:31this action.
52:32>> Yeah.
52:32>> The reaction after the fact is what's
52:34crucial. And after the fact, the market
52:36bounced and aggressive buying stepped in
52:38thereafter.
52:39>> Mhm.
52:39>> So, I mean, there's no time frame in
52:41terms of the volume. The volume is
52:42coming in now.
52:43>> Yeah.
52:43>> And a lot of people always ask me like,
52:44"Camon, what time frame chart do you
52:46use?" And when I'm confirming my setups,
52:49I don't use a time frame chart. I'm
52:50using what I call the time frame of the
52:52now.
52:52>> Mhm.
52:53>> And the now, what I'm really mean by
52:54that is the volume that's coming in
52:55right now. You can't classify that to a
52:58time, 5-minute, 1-minute. It happened at
53:0011:27 and 45 seconds. That's what was
53:03happening in that moment in the now when
53:05it occurred.
53:06>> Cuz it's easy to look at this chart and
53:07think, "Oh, you know, you've got in
53:09late."
53:09>> Right.
53:10>> But then, that's not the same as a chart
53:12pattern, so that's not getting in at the
53:14high.
53:15>> It's actually just getting in where that
53:17volume is.
53:18>> Mhm.
53:18>> If we were then to compare to the
53:201-minute chart or the 5-minute chart,
53:21it's actually a much more better entry.
53:23>> Correct. So, if you were to just look at
53:25this candlestick chart here, right? This
53:27This occurred at 6040.
53:29>> Mhm.
53:29>> And a bounce, the aggressive buying came
53:31in at the 41s, 42s, 43s, and even 44s.
53:34>> Yeah.
53:35>> If we were to look at a candlestick
53:36chart, right?
53:37Here's the 40s. Here's the 41s. Here's
53:40the 42s. Here's the 43s.
53:42>> Mhm. Versus, let's just say a lot of
53:43traders would wait maybe for the 47s.
53:46>> Yeah.
53:46>> 48s, fine, good entry, nothing wrong
53:48with that. But now going back to the
53:50risk box, right? This getting long at
53:53the 42s, 43s, what this enables me to do
53:56is my reward box is significant. This is
53:58how much if my target hits up here.
54:00>> Yeah.
54:00>> Versus my risk box is going to be very
54:02small.
54:04Now you could get a later entry, call it
54:05at the at the 47s or 50s. Now your risk
54:09box is here.
54:10>> Yeah.
54:11>> And your reward box is still there.
54:13>> Yeah.
54:13>> As long as it makes sense in terms of
54:14risk to reward you should take the
54:15trade, but I like get This is how I'm
54:17able to get eight to one, 10 to one risk
54:19to reward ratios. Yes, my win rate might
54:21be a little lower, but my risk to reward
54:24takes care of it and risk to reward is
54:25more important than win rate.
54:27>> Mhm.
54:27>> A lot of traders focus on high win rate
54:29strategies or high risk to rewards. High
54:32risk to rewards are more significant
54:34than win rates.
54:35>> Mhm.
54:36>> I had a 30% win rate a 33% win rate two
54:40weeks ago and I still came out the week
54:42green. Like if if you focus on risk to
54:44reward ratios and not win rates, the
54:46wins will take care of themselves if you
54:48protect your losses.
54:49>> Yeah.
54:50>> Um and then even going back to the
54:51footprint you could see the negative 258
54:53delta there.
54:54Similar to we see the 258 here. It's the
54:56same information just a different tool.
54:58So we see 258 here.
55:00That means somebody aggressively sold,
55:02but despite all this selling volume
55:04here, somebody is buying this and
55:06supporting the market and then it
55:07bounces thereafter.
55:08>> Yeah.
55:08>> So that's our indication of the market.
55:11Now this trade
55:12>> Uh
55:13>> was two different setups. The first one
55:15off the supply is going to be a $3,300
55:17loss.
55:18Another thing, if you look at all my
55:20setups, my risk is around the same
55:22dollar amount. I think it's important,
55:23we talked about this in the last FinTwit
55:25episode, keep the risk consistent.
55:27>> Um
55:28>> This was a $3,300 loss. The next trade,
55:31and this was a rejection off of supply.
55:33The next trade was a $25,000 profit, 7.6
55:37risk to reward ratio. Same thing
55:39shorting the level of supply. It's just
55:41this time I timed it properly versus the
55:43last time I didn't time it properly. So,
55:44the loss is significantly lower than the
55:47win and this is a crucial aspect not
55:49even in terms of strategy, but in terms
55:50of risk to reward ratio.
55:52But talking about this, let's go over
55:54the plan.
55:55So, the plan here was to short a strong
55:57pop into 5670 to 5700. I am looking to
56:02be a seller for a move down targeting
56:045640 which is a level of demand.
56:06The market rallies up into this level of
56:08supply and I get short at the 5677s
56:11with a five point stop loss at the 82s
56:14going for about a 27 to 32 point target
56:17to the downside. Really good risk to
56:19reward ratio.
56:21The market comes up and here's I find my
56:23first entry short when it rejects this
56:25level of supply. And again, you can use
56:27candlestick charts to get your
56:29confirmation signals. But order flow
56:31gives me the reason why the market can
56:33potentially reject.
56:35For footprint charts, this is a pattern
56:36that I look for. It's called the P
56:37shape. It's when we see a lot of volume
56:39being distributed at the high and then
56:42the market sells off. In this example,
56:44we can see a lot of volume being
56:45transacted here.
56:47And the bar before this, we can see a
56:48lot of aggressive buying transacted
56:49here. Now, similarly to what I said
56:51earlier, if there's a lot of volume at a
56:53high, this usually indicates a high is
56:55not placed. While that is true, there
56:57are opportunities for quick short-term
57:00scalping opportunities. So, even despite
57:02there being high volume here in the
57:04terms of the volume bulge of the P.
57:06Right? Everybody can see that P here?
57:07High volume then a drop.
57:10Despite high volume at the high, in
57:12terms of a low or a high being placed,
57:15you want to see a lack of volume.
57:18being transacted. But in terms of a
57:21quick short-term pullback,
57:23going for a quick scalp, high volume is
57:26a good indication that traders are
57:27trapped. So, a pattern that I look for
57:29is when there's a lot of aggressive
57:31volume coming into the market, but no
57:33follow through. Here we can see a lot of
57:35aggressive buying,
57:36a lot of aggressive buying, a lot of
57:38aggressive buying up here, followed by
57:41aggressive selling denoted by this
57:43negative seven or 872 seller,
57:46>> Mhm.
57:46>> denoted by this negative 329 delta here
57:49as well.
57:50So, we see the trapped buyers, we see
57:51the aggressive sellers, I take the
57:53market short. We could even look at the
57:55heat map for this. We can see the market
57:57come up and similar to those wins that I
57:58showed you before, this looks identical,
58:00right? We see the passive seller sitting
58:02here.
58:02>> Yep.
58:02>> We see the aggressive buying, we see the
58:04market stall out and consolidate.
58:06>> Mhm.
58:06>> Directly after this, we see some selling
58:08volume, selling volume, and even more
58:11selling volume. This to me, once this
58:13structure breaks right here, once the
58:15market breaks this consolidation, is a
58:17good enough confirmation signal to get
58:18short here. It's at a level of supply,
58:20right? If this was in the middle of the
58:21range,
58:22>> Yeah.
58:22>> it's not as significant.
58:23>> Exactly.
58:23>> But, it's at a level of interest,
58:25whether it's a 50% fib that people look
58:27at or some type of fair value gap or
58:29supply zone, resistance level. This is
58:32at a level of interest.
58:33>> Mhm.
58:33>> Once the structure broke, this is a good
58:35enough confirmation to get short. 73s,
58:37put my stop at the 76s. That'll be three
58:39points worth of risk right there.
58:41Happens in a minute period. If you look
58:43at a 1-minute chart,
58:44by the time you wait for the candle to
58:46drop, you know, you might be getting in
58:47at the 71, 70, 69s.
58:51Fine, but now your risk is much more and
58:53your reward is going to be minimized.
58:55>> Mhm.
58:56>> So, this entry I got short a little
58:57late. I got short at the 70s. Totally
59:00fine. Stop above the highs.
59:02I eventually stopped out of this trade
59:03for a loss once the high of day was
59:05tested and broken.
59:07Now,
59:08we could argue, like I said earlier,
59:10there was high volume at the high,
59:12and this would indicate that the high
59:13would be broken at some point. A very,
59:16very good concept is if there's high
59:18volume at the high, it's very likely
59:21that high to be broken again at some
59:23other point in the future. And if
59:26there's high volume at a low,
59:28it's very likely the market to break
59:29that low at some point in the future.
59:31Here we could see the high volume
59:33indicated by the P-shape
59:36and indicated by the volume profile that
59:40is shown right here.
59:41So it's indicating that some point the
59:43market may want to impulsively break the
59:45high.
59:46So now the second trade, this was the
59:47$25,000 profit, the 7.6 to 1
59:50risk-to-reward ratio, was I got short
59:52again at the 77s at the 82s. So despite
59:55the first trade where I entered short
59:57here at the 70s, now I re-entered again
1:00:00at some other price much higher cuz I'm
1:00:03short, so this just offers less risk and
1:00:06more reward cuz now we moved further
1:00:07away from my target.
1:00:10I think it's important if anybody ever
1:00:11stops out for a loss, don't throw your
1:00:13analysis out the window. Maybe you just
1:00:15mistimed the market. Maybe you were a
1:00:16little too early. A lot of people take a
1:00:18loss and they call it a session and they
1:00:20walk away or they think they're
1:00:21completely wrong.
1:00:22You can be wrong, you may have just
1:00:24mistimed it. Maybe a few minutes later
1:00:26the market will eventually agree with
1:00:27your analysis if you're patient enough
1:00:29to wait for more confirmation.
1:00:31So here we see the impulsive move up
1:00:35around 11:15. And what this looks like
1:00:36on the candlestick chart is 11:15 is
1:00:39right here. We can see it by this larger
1:00:41upper wick right here. That's that
1:00:43impulsive move that you see right here.
1:00:44So high of day was swept, high of day
1:00:46was broken, it was done on heavier
1:00:48volume. This is why we see an upper wick
1:00:50cuz it was immediately rejected. And
1:00:52then directly following this, we see the
1:00:54same structure that we saw earlier. We
1:00:56saw the market consolidate, and as it
1:00:58broke this consolidation is where I got
1:01:00short at the 5677s.
1:01:02Now we've left the volume tail here
1:01:05compared to earlier.
1:01:06We didn't we had the high volume there.
1:01:09Now a few minutes later the market swept
1:01:11the high. This is where traders see the
1:01:13stop runs or you know how many traders
1:01:15got stopped out of this big wick right
1:01:17here. There was so many traders that
1:01:19probably got stopped out of this and we
1:01:21can see that with the order flow.
1:01:22Now, we have the volume tail,
1:01:24and now we have the structure breaking.
1:01:26You know, you're not going to be able to
1:01:27see the structure
1:01:29on a 1-minute chart, right? You might
1:01:31see it right here, but it's not as clear
1:01:32as it is on this order flow right here.
1:01:33>> Yeah, of course.
1:01:35>> And on top of this, we see another P
1:01:37shape. But now, look, this P shape was
1:01:39not transacted at the high. Here, we
1:01:40have the lack of volume at the high.
1:01:42>> Mhm.
1:01:42>> Now, we even have a little bit of lack
1:01:44of volume at the top of the P, and now
1:01:46we have aggressive sellers denoted by
1:01:49this. Aggressive sellers denoted by
1:01:52this.
1:01:52>> Mhm.
1:01:53>> Trapped buyers by buyers buying at the
1:01:56high inside of supply. Remember, the
1:01:57reason why supply is there is because
1:01:59there's origin location of a lot of
1:02:01selling activity. Now, the market's
1:02:03revisiting this. If whoever formed that
1:02:05supply zone, or whoever was selling here
1:02:06in the past, whether this level formed a
1:02:08day ago or 2 weeks ago,
1:02:11these traders were buying this. They are
1:02:13buying aggressively to somebody
1:02:14passively selling. We could say that
1:02:16it's possible that whoever's buying
1:02:18this, denoted by all this blue buying
1:02:21volume, is buying from whoever formed
1:02:23this supply level here with an agenda to
1:02:26bring the market to the downside.
1:02:27>> Yeah.
1:02:28>> And if you want to use a trend line,
1:02:30like again, you could use extra
1:02:32confluence to whatever trading strategy
1:02:34you use, trend lines, whatever.
1:02:36Yes, I I sold when the trend line broke,
1:02:38but I didn't use a trend line to enter
1:02:40the setup. I entered the setup when the
1:02:42order flow had this P shape. We were at
1:02:44this level of supply when the buyers
1:02:45were trapped, and we even see a P shape
1:02:47directly a few minutes later as well.
1:02:50Now,
1:02:51um this is the last trade. This was a
1:02:53$27,000 profit, significantly sized
1:02:55down. But look, 8:1 risk-to-reward
1:02:58ratio. It was only on seven ES
1:02:59contracts.
1:03:00>> Yeah.
1:03:00>> Depending on your broker, I mean, some
1:03:01brokers, the margin requirement's $400 a
1:03:03contract. So, theoretically, this trade,
1:03:05in terms of margin, only cost $2,800 out
1:03:08of my account to make a $28,000 profit.
1:03:11Highly leveraged instruments, futures,
1:03:12but with highly leveraged comes high
1:03:14risk. My risk stays around the same.
1:03:17And this the market sold off into a
1:03:19level of demand and I take the market
1:03:20long.
1:03:21Now,
1:03:23this is going to blend all the concepts
1:03:24together.
1:03:26What I was watching for was 4875, which
1:03:28was a level of market structure demand.
1:03:30The market was supporting at this level
1:03:32and I wanted to pull back into this for
1:03:34the market to eventually bounce. What
1:03:36happened is I got long at the 75s going
1:03:39for about a 40 to 50 point target to the
1:03:41upside.
1:03:42>> Mhm.
1:03:43>> Here's the market structure level of
1:03:44demand. Like I said earlier, the market
1:03:47just sells off, consolidates, and then
1:03:49rallies up, the period of consolidation
1:03:52is crucial.
1:03:53I mark it as a level of market structure
1:03:55demand.
1:03:563 hours later, or excuse me, 6 hours
1:03:58later, the market revisits this level,
1:04:00bounces, I take the market long, and I
1:04:03sell as the market's moving up into
1:04:05strength.
1:04:06Now, the reason for this was let's look
1:04:08at the depth of market. The level of
1:04:10interest is at 50 or 4875
1:04:13to about 4870.
1:04:164875 is right here.
1:04:18We're going to see,
1:04:20as I've been explaining all this podcast
1:04:22so far, aggressive selling hitting
1:04:24hitting a bid. And this could have been
1:04:25a good entry, honestly, right here. And
1:04:28this probably would have been a losing
1:04:29trade if I took this first set up at
1:04:319:43. But what I want to highlight here
1:04:34is as the market's selling off,
1:04:36there's significant selling volume. 919
1:04:40contracts hitting the bid, zero hitting
1:04:42the offer, giving us a negative delta of
1:04:45-919
1:04:46at 4870.
1:04:48We can see it by the large selling
1:04:49volume, 4870, and keep in mind their
1:04:52level of market structure demand is
1:04:534875.
1:04:55If this was at a random price point in
1:04:57the middle of the range, it's not as
1:04:58significant, but it's coming into a
1:04:59level of market structure demand.
1:05:02Despite this order flow, nothing
1:05:04indicates right here, with this selling
1:05:06right here, the market's going to
1:05:07bounce.
1:05:08Nothing indicates that the market may
1:05:11want to move up, and this is what it
1:05:12looks like on a candlestick chart. Just
1:05:13continuous lower lows and continuous
1:05:15lower highs.
1:05:17Nothing here sparks my interest just yet
1:05:19and this is why context is key.
1:05:21Directly after this activity of 919
1:05:24contracts getting 4870.
1:05:27Directly after this the market sweeps
1:05:29and breaks the low.
1:05:30Now we see the volume tail. As I said
1:05:32earlier, a good sign of a low or high
1:05:35being placed is when there's a lack of
1:05:37liquidity or a lack of volume at that
1:05:39lot lower high. So now few points here.
1:05:42The market's at market structure demand.
1:05:44We're seeing the negative delta or the
1:05:46aggressive selling. We're seeing the
1:05:48passive bids filling. We're seeing the
1:05:50market sweep that low and automatically
1:05:53reclaim. And 30 seconds later, this is
1:05:569:43:30
1:05:57at 9:44, even a little before that,
1:06:00there's a bid right here. If I were to
1:06:02zoom in you could see a larger thicker
1:06:04passive buyer getting hit by a larger
1:06:06aggressive seller hitting the bid.
1:06:08Now this looks great from from risk on.
1:06:10Market structure demand, all this volume
1:06:12activity and this would enable us to
1:06:14have
1:06:15five points worth of risk, eight points
1:06:17worth of risk for a potential of a 50 to
1:06:1970 point rally to the upside as that was
1:06:22our nearest target.
1:06:23Looking at the delta footprint we can
1:06:25see the same thing occurring here.
1:06:26First arrow is the strong selling. You
1:06:28can see the strong selling here. And
1:06:30then directly after that the low was
1:06:32broken.
1:06:33You can see the low breaking right here
1:06:34and then the aggressive buying step in
1:06:36there after and then the pullback right
1:06:38here holds this
1:06:41and holds this right here as support
1:06:44right here. So now whoever is
1:06:46transacting this
1:06:47Think about this, right? We don't know
1:06:49if somebody hitting the bid is opening
1:06:51up a new long position. We don't know if
1:06:53they're opening up a new sell position.
1:06:55We don't know if they're covering. We
1:06:56don't know if they're opening to buy or
1:06:58opening to closing to sell.
1:07:01But we do know is there's an unusual
1:07:02amount of volume here and an unusual
1:07:04amount of volume here.
1:07:06If the market's at this level of demand,
1:07:08it would be safe to say I would be
1:07:09leaning more towards this is a potential
1:07:10buyer.
1:07:11>> Yeah.
1:07:12>> It could still be a buyer buying on the
1:07:14bid here and the buying aggressively on
1:07:17the offer here.
1:07:18What I mean by that is there's selling
1:07:20volume here and a lot of people would
1:07:21think this is selling. Yeah, but
1:07:22somebody had to passively buy to all the
1:07:25selling volume.
1:07:26>> Mhm.
1:07:27>> The market bounced and now we're seeing
1:07:28all the aggressive buying here
1:07:30and it's supporting these levels very,
1:07:33very well indicating that this is a good
1:07:35sign that somebody is buying the market
1:07:38or whoever is transacting here could be
1:07:40a buyer. And as I said earlier, like at
1:07:42this moment, I don't know if this is a
1:07:43seller. I don't know if this is a buyer,
1:07:45but directly after this, this is giving
1:07:48me clues that contextually I'm putting
1:07:50pieces to the story together together
1:07:53that this is a potential level of
1:07:55interest and a potential buyer and I
1:07:57want to put risk on around these levels
1:07:59and then the market bounces. And if you
1:08:00look at my entry, my entry is here. My
1:08:02entry is now waiting for this trend line
1:08:05right here
1:08:07to be broken. I'm not entering here. I'm
1:08:09entering here when the order flow's
1:08:11telling me to enter.
1:08:12>> Yeah.
1:08:13>> Still a good entry here. Nothing wrong
1:08:14with that. But now I'm long if I'm
1:08:16waiting for a trend line to break at the
1:08:184905s.
1:08:19Versus I got long at the 4870s.
1:08:22>> Mhm.
1:08:22>> Mhm. That
1:08:23>> Besides you said you will because you
1:08:24keep your risk static as well. That
1:08:26makes a massive difference because it
1:08:28allows you to take more size by keeping
1:08:30the risk the same.
1:08:32Whereas as you would have to reduce your
1:08:33size with the risk being the same if
1:08:36your entry was later waiting for that
1:08:37confirmation based on the technical
1:08:38pattern.
1:08:39>> Exactly. So, let's just say I waited for
1:08:41the technical pattern and I waited for
1:08:42like this trend line to break.
1:08:44Well, if I'm long, call it at, I don't
1:08:46know, the 4900s,
1:08:48right?
1:08:49And I theoretically if I'm long when the
1:08:51trend line breaks the 4900s or 4890s,
1:08:54theoretically I would have to place my
1:08:55stop loss at the low for me to be
1:08:57incorrect on this analysis. For a valid
1:08:59stop loss placement, it has to be placed
1:09:01where your thesis would be proven wrong.
1:09:02>> Mhm.
1:09:03>> If I'm wrong when the market breaks this
1:09:05downtrend line,
1:09:07I would put put my stop loss under the
1:09:08low because that was the only point that
1:09:10I theoretically would be incorrect on
1:09:12this if it revisits that.
1:09:14That just means I would have to reduce
1:09:16my size to make this risk fit even if
1:09:19I'm keeping the risk consistent.
1:09:21Versus entering down here, I could enter
1:09:24call with
1:09:25bigger size because my risk box is super
1:09:28small.
1:09:29>> Mhm.
1:09:29>> And this is how you dynamically change
1:09:31your position size relative to the risk.
1:09:34And exactly what we just said. You know,
1:09:36if I waited for the 5-minute candle to
1:09:38close, I essentially would If I waited
1:09:40for the 5-minute candle to close, I
1:09:42would get in where I exited some of this
1:09:44position.
1:09:45I wouldn't be getting in where I did. I
1:09:47don't want to be getting in where I
1:09:48would exit at my target waiting for a
1:09:495-minute candle to close. And that's the
1:09:51concept of
1:09:53waiting for the order flow to tell you
1:09:55when to enter, not waiting for a
1:09:56candlestick chart to tell you to tell
1:09:58you when to enter. It maximizes your
1:10:00risk to reward and it gets you in at
1:10:01that right moment with a higher
1:10:02probability of the market moving in your
1:10:04direction.
1:10:04>> And again, you know, to your point is
1:10:06based off context. So, you've And this
1:10:08is the question I was going to ask you,
1:10:09you know, based on all the trades that
1:10:11you've shown
1:10:12uh both on the last episode and this
1:10:13episode, one thing I didn't highlight on
1:10:15the last one, which I think is very
1:10:17important, is you're doing your market
1:10:19prep beforehand. So, you're creating
1:10:21your your thesis, your bias, your story
1:10:23and context
1:10:25already when coming into the market.
1:10:26You're identifying your levels, you're
1:10:28identifying where the potential for or
1:10:32where you're looking for those buyers or
1:10:33sellers to interact, where you're
1:10:35already interested. So, it's not a case
1:10:36where it's like chaotic and you're just
1:10:38jumping on what's the order flow saying
1:10:40and then basing it off that.
1:10:42You're doing your preparation before
1:10:43coming to the market using, you know,
1:10:46both your your technical levels, but
1:10:47then also the order flow.
1:10:49Marking that out and then once price
1:10:51gets there, then your job essentially is
1:10:53to check what that interaction and the
1:10:56auctions are place.
1:10:57>> Right. And then just react accordingly.
1:10:59I mean the main thing really for the say
1:11:02the novice trader or the traders who are
1:11:03looking to incorporate this, the biggest
1:11:05thing I would say, you know, based off
1:11:07what I've observed, is that they will
1:11:09just spend the time to train themselves
1:11:11to react faster.
1:11:12>> Correct. I Everything's about reaction.
1:11:14So, it's not prediction, it's reaction.
1:11:16And in the market, you have to react to
1:11:18the information that market's providing
1:11:19you if you're short-term trading.
1:11:21>> Mhm.
1:11:21>> This is for short-term trading.
1:11:22>> Of course, yeah.
1:11:23>> Um when you see something, you have to
1:11:24react. You can't fear for anything. A
1:11:26lot of traders are too scared to lose
1:11:28money. They're too scared to click the
1:11:30buy or sell button because they're
1:11:31fearful of the unknown.
1:11:32>> Mhm.
1:11:32>> And in the market, no one knows what's
1:11:34going to happen next. But you will know
1:11:36the patterns you look out for, and the
1:11:37patterns will give you a higher
1:11:39probability of the market moving in your
1:11:41direction. I never wake up and know if
1:11:43I'm going to make money or lose money,
1:11:45but I wake up and know the setups that
1:11:47I'm looking for.
1:11:47>> Yeah.
1:11:48>> And my job is to look for those setups
1:11:49because I know I've built a system
1:11:51around those setups that give me a
1:11:53higher probability of extracting profits
1:11:56in the market and and building my edge
1:11:57around it.
1:11:58>> Mhm.
1:11:58>> And a lot of traders struggle in the
1:12:01market because they cannot react. They
1:12:03think, "Oh, am I reading this right? Or
1:12:06is this the right assumption to make
1:12:07here? Or
1:12:08>> Yeah.
1:12:08>> I
1:12:09I'm a little scared that I'm a little
1:12:10too early to this. And you can't do
1:12:12that. You just have to fire and fire and
1:12:14attack. And you have to control the
1:12:16controllables. And the controllables are
1:12:18your risk and your plan and your
1:12:19strategy.
1:12:20>> Yeah.
1:12:20>> The uncontrollables are where the
1:12:21market's going to head and where the
1:12:24where what how other participants are
1:12:26perceiving price action at that given
1:12:28moment. So, yeah, reaction is
1:12:29everything. A lot of traders try to
1:12:31predict, and that's where the the losses
1:12:34should be avoided are.
1:12:36>> Mhm.
1:12:36>> And you have to just react to what the
1:12:39market's providing cuz if you react,
1:12:40you'll get in now and you won't get in
1:12:42later skewing your risk to reward.
1:12:43>> Exactly. And back to your point in terms
1:12:45of context and and location,
1:12:47like once you understand the auction and
1:12:49and the theory that we went over in
1:12:51terms of the uh real estate property,
1:12:53right? So, when you know you're not
1:12:54ideally looking to buy at high when
1:12:57price is expensive, you're already
1:12:58you're looking for those buying
1:13:00opportunities when prices are low. And
1:13:02then taking that context and keeping
1:13:04that in mind, I mean, it's very
1:13:05important is like that's something you
1:13:06can control as a trader is making sure
1:13:09to try and transact around that model.
1:13:12So, that when you get to those low
1:13:14points and those areas that you've
1:13:15marked out and you've done your
1:13:16preparation
1:13:17before starting your actual trading,
1:13:20now it's making sure to stay disciplined
1:13:21to that, knowing what you're looking out
1:13:23for when that takes place, and then
1:13:25reacting and taking action accordingly.
1:13:28So, having a process versus, you know, I
1:13:30think what people do is they look at
1:13:31this and think, "Oh, you can, you know,
1:13:33see the orders, so you can transact
1:13:35anywhere." And it's moving fast. Versus
1:13:37that bit is universal as a trader is
1:13:39having that context.
1:13:40>> Correct.
1:13:41>> Having that plan, you know, under
1:13:43trading from the correct areas versus
1:13:46anywhere.
1:13:47Um, one thing I would like to ask you
1:13:48before we wrap up in terms of for those
1:13:50who are going to be taking this lesson
1:13:52and and taking sort of this, you know, A
1:13:55to Z
1:13:55guide of of order flow,
1:13:58uh, what should they be looking out for
1:14:00as, say, hurdles or things that might be
1:14:02a bit tricky to begin with that maybe
1:14:05there's some common practices or certain
1:14:06things that you can let them know of so
1:14:09that they can, you know, have a bit more
1:14:10of a smoother or at least know that,
1:14:12"Okay, this is going to be a hurdle,
1:14:13but, you know, once you overcome that,
1:14:15it's going to become a lot easier."
1:14:16>> Yeah, so number one, I would definitely
1:14:18form this to your strategy. Like,
1:14:20combine this with whatever strategy you
1:14:22use to give you an extra layer of
1:14:24confluence and confidence.
1:14:26Um, this is just an added layer to
1:14:28confirming trades and finding where
1:14:30buyers and sellers are.
1:14:32Number two is that don't look at every
1:14:34single order at every single price at
1:14:36every single second of the market. This
1:14:38is where number one, your brain's going
1:14:39to get fatigued. Number two, you're
1:14:41going to feel like you're all over the
1:14:42place cuz you don't know what to look
1:14:43for. It's just looking for the market to
1:14:46present unusual activity at your levels
1:14:48of interest and you act upon that in
1:14:50terms of passive aggressive buyers,
1:14:52sellers, the speed of the tape, the
1:14:54volume tail, the high volume. So, do
1:14:56that around your levels of interest
1:14:58first as a beginner so you could kind of
1:15:00filter out what's going on in the noise
1:15:03in the middle of the ranges instead of
1:15:04just having to look at it at your levels
1:15:07of interest.
1:15:07>> Yeah.
1:15:07>> Another massive thing that tremendously
1:15:10helped and I even still get better to
1:15:11this day. Like I would say I'm a better
1:15:13order flow trader than I am now than I
1:15:15was 3 years ago. And I'm a better trader
1:15:17now than I was in 2019. You know, so
1:15:19it's it's throughout the years your
1:15:21brain is like
1:15:23it's it's muscle memory. So, you start
1:15:25seeing different patterns and I wake up
1:15:27every single day with confidence in my
1:15:29trading because I know the patterns that
1:15:32I should be looking out for that will
1:15:33make the probabilities in my favor to
1:15:35make profits in the market. I don't wake
1:15:37up guessing. I don't wake up have a bias
1:15:40of oh, I think the market's going to
1:15:41sell off cuz there was just some news
1:15:43that happened last night. I know that
1:15:45what I'm looking for, it's my job to
1:15:47spot that and when I spot it, I put risk
1:15:49on without fearing. A really good thing
1:15:52that helped me and I still do it to this
1:15:54day. In fact, when I do this
1:15:56for some reason I trade so much better
1:15:58the following week is throughout the
1:16:00days, I do this on weekends, is I review
1:16:02the data from the previous week.
1:16:04>> Mhm.
1:16:04>> So, I'll look at trades that I took
1:16:06last week and I'll even look at trades
1:16:08that I didn't take. I'll see maybe the
1:16:09market came to my level of interest and
1:16:11I'll go back and replay the order flow
1:16:13in real time.
1:16:14>> Mhm.
1:16:14>> And I'll see what can I spot here that
1:16:16maybe I missed in real time because
1:16:17maybe my mind was clouded and I had a
1:16:19bias.
1:16:19>> Mhm.
1:16:20>> Maybe I wasn't reading the market
1:16:21properly or maybe I thought something
1:16:22was going to occur and it blinded me
1:16:24from what was going on right now.
1:16:26So, going back and reviewing what
1:16:29happened, how you traded it, how you
1:16:31could have traded it and and
1:16:33simulating the order flow in terms of a
1:16:35market replay. Like I know TradeZella
1:16:37has a market replay feature in terms of
1:16:39candlestick charts, but
1:16:40>> But platforms that I use for order flow
1:16:42give sophisticated,
1:16:43real-time, second-by-second, exact
1:16:46volume patterns
1:16:47um in terms of market replay that I can
1:16:50go back. Maybe I missed something. Well,
1:16:52I'm going to go back and learn. And
1:16:54maybe I took a good trade, I want to go
1:16:55back and see what I saw and how I saw
1:16:57it. And I'll go back if I take a losing
1:16:59trade and I'll say, "All right, this was
1:17:00such a dumb decision, but I didn't
1:17:02recognize it in that moment because I
1:17:04thought something was going to occur."
1:17:05When I do that, I approach the following
1:17:07week with so much confidence and it just
1:17:10naturally forces me to trade better and
1:17:11I always have a better trade week when I
1:17:13review my data and review the order
1:17:15flow, and I always learn something new
1:17:17in terms of the current market
1:17:18conditions. Market conditions are always
1:17:20changing. So, being able to go back and
1:17:22review your data is crucial to stay on
1:17:24top of things and to stay on top of
1:17:27adapting to when the conditions change.
1:17:29You know, some patterns are going to
1:17:30look differently. Like, I'll look for
1:17:31trapped buyers if the market's very flat
1:17:34or consolidating. Versus, I'll look for
1:17:36a volume tail when the market's very
1:17:38volatile.
1:17:38>> Yeah.
1:17:39>> So, different patterns will show up in
1:17:41different market conditions. And you
1:17:43have to know the market conditions
1:17:44you're trading in to fit those patterns
1:17:46to make it work in a high probability
1:17:47setup.
1:17:47>> In that time, yeah. So, what do you
1:17:49suggest in terms of like if people were
1:17:51going away from this
1:17:52to start with, is it a good exercise, do
1:17:55you think, for them to take what they
1:17:56currently use on a technical basis
1:17:59and then go and look at those same
1:18:00trades on the order flow as a as like
1:18:03step one? So, they can get used to how
1:18:06does that look? What What is it
1:18:08representing on the order flow? And
1:18:10then, again, like continue to do that,
1:18:11as you said, like reflect on your trades
1:18:13consistently. And then, I guess, slowly
1:18:16start to look at the order flow in real
1:18:18time.
1:18:19So, you're picking up on what its
1:18:20characteristics are.
1:18:21>> Absolutely. Yeah, I could look at any
1:18:22successful trader and look at their
1:18:24strategy. They have success with it.
1:18:25Don't change anything when you find
1:18:26success. But I could I would high I
1:18:30would very much agree with that I can
1:18:33they could find more pinpointed entries
1:18:35and avoid trades that are, I guess you
1:18:38could say known to lose before you enter
1:18:39it.
1:18:39>> Yeah.
1:18:40>> Just by confirming it with the order
1:18:41flow. You'll see trades that like maybe
1:18:43something in the order flow didn't agree
1:18:45with your entry and if you saw that you
1:18:46would have never taken that setup and it
1:18:48would have avoided a loss.
1:18:49>> Yeah.
1:18:50>> Uh it would have helped you avoid taking
1:18:51a losing setup. So yeah, another big
1:18:53thing that I did
1:18:55and with certain platforms they offer
1:18:57market replays.
1:18:58Uh but what I really did I have files
1:19:00back from 2019 on my computer at home.
1:19:03I would record my screens every single
1:19:05day and I would go back, speed it up,
1:19:07slow it down if you don't have access to
1:19:08a replay feature. And I it's funny I
1:19:11just nostalgic I went back and look at
1:19:12my replay and my trading's the same as
1:19:14it was in 2019 and 2020. Nothing's
1:19:16changed cuz the concepts don't change
1:19:17about the market's auction. All the
1:19:19same. But being able to go back and see
1:19:21and review the data helps tremendously
1:19:24and that's how you learn and that's how
1:19:25you speed up the learning curve. And I
1:19:27would also recommend like I have a eight
1:19:29video series on my channel
1:19:30>> Yeah. Yeah.
1:19:30>> about order flow. It's like order flow
1:19:32from the beginning the basics to more
1:19:34advanced concepts on my channel. That's
1:19:36a very good starting point to understand
1:19:37like the tools and everything that we've
1:19:38went over in kind of more of a concise
1:19:40way as well.
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1:21:40giveaway every single week. Now, let's
1:21:43get back into the episode. Okay, so
1:21:44briefly, I just posted uh something new
1:21:47in the intraday commentary tab.
1:21:50Basically watching 67
1:21:52uh 14-ish
1:21:55represents Friday's low volume node.
1:21:57Also represents Thursday's high.
1:22:01Um I don't know if you all remember, but
1:22:03the selling that we saw there at like 67
1:22:0514
1:22:06also aligns with like uh the pre-market
1:22:09high from Thursday as well.
1:22:11Combined with Friday's low volume node.
1:22:14Combined with large delta
1:22:17from the rollover Friday at the close.
1:22:20So, at the open I am watching if this
1:22:22thing wants to pop. I kind of want to
1:22:23gauge the
1:22:25the market around uh
1:22:276714
1:22:29to 672122.
1:22:31And then to the downside, I'm watching
1:22:33the 67 uh 66
1:22:3587s 88s. Market's going to open here.
1:22:39>> [music]
1:22:40>> Those are two main levels.
1:22:42>> [sighs and gasps]
1:22:44>> Um
1:22:46everything now since FOMC is out of the
1:22:48way, since triple witching, Opex,
1:22:51whatever you want to call it, um is out
1:22:54of the way also, this could be, you
1:22:57know, the start, not saying today, but
1:22:59maybe later in the week,
1:23:00you know, some profit taking to occur,
1:23:03maybe some euphoric volume for then the
1:23:06market to reverse.
1:23:07But now that major economic um
1:23:11events are over with, especially
1:23:13rollover, and especially FOMC,
1:23:17this could possibly be the start of, you
1:23:19know, some volatility picking up,
1:23:21hopefully,
1:23:22which is something that we definitely
1:23:24want to see.
1:23:26Um so now just, again, be patient.
1:23:30I have alerts set at my levels, so I'm
1:23:32really going to only want to be trading
1:23:33around my levels. For those who did uh
1:23:35join the Academy webinar last night,
1:23:38you know, we talked about the equation
1:23:39of where plus when and why equals a
1:23:42trade. Where is our level of interest,
1:23:45right? When we have a level of interest
1:23:47combined with confirmation at our level
1:23:48of interest,
1:23:50that's when we're going to have the best
1:23:51trades, and that's when we're going to
1:23:52have the
1:23:53um
1:23:54equation kind of be validated.
1:23:57So my where right now is 6714,
1:24:00672122-ish.
1:24:02And then to the downside, my where is
1:24:056688, 6687. So two main levels I'm
1:24:08watching price action around if the
1:24:10market comes into it. Uh but until that,
1:24:13I got to be patient for the market to
1:24:14hit my levels. If anybody has any other
1:24:16levels or anything that they're
1:24:17watching, you know, when you see
1:24:18confirmation, you see a trade around it,
1:24:20take it, right? Don't hesitate. When
1:24:23your plan comes into fruition and when
1:24:25you see an opportunity, you take the
1:24:26trade.
1:24:27Don't wait for Carmine to say he's
1:24:29watching this or watching that cuz
1:24:31Carmine could be wrong as well, right?
1:24:33The best analysis is always going to be
1:24:34your own analysis.
1:24:39I know I've been saying this every time
1:24:40I come on voice chat, but um I'm still
1:24:43working on the systems to to do the live
1:24:45stream
1:24:46um so you guys can see the screen while
1:24:48I'm talking. So, if I ever need to
1:24:49explain something, it'll be there for
1:24:51you to see.
1:24:52It's coming. I'm working on it. It's
1:24:54just there's a bunch of back-end things
1:24:56that
1:24:58some members don't have access to it
1:25:00right now. And again, I can't do it if
1:25:01not everybody has access to it. And I
1:25:03haven't figured out a way to automate
1:25:05existing members into that.
1:25:07I'm working on it, believe me. But, it
1:25:09will be very beneficial for you all to
1:25:10see the screen as well.
1:25:12So, I'm explaining something, it's a
1:25:14visual for you to just bounce to the
1:25:15screen and look at.
1:25:24So, pretty much directly in the first 3
1:25:26minutes, the market's been pretty bid.
1:25:29Meaning it's supporting these upside
1:25:31prices and every tick higher is being
1:25:33supported by larger bids stepping into
1:25:35the market.
1:25:47Tesla ripping.
1:25:55I guess it's a good time for me to check
1:25:57my position on that.
1:26:00Tesla's up over 2% today. It just broke
1:26:02above the pre-market high and last
1:26:03week's high.
1:26:06Uh as far as Nasdaq levels, I really
1:26:08don't have much. I mean, we have the
1:26:10all-time high from Friday 30 points away
1:26:13on the Nasdaq, and 30 points is pretty
1:26:14much nothing on the Nasdaq.
1:26:17There's no supply.
1:26:19Um somebody mentioned to me
1:26:21[clears throat] that we have a 45-minute
1:26:22level of demand.
1:26:24I rarely use that time frame, but that
1:26:25time frame is valid on a 45-minute.
1:26:28Both the Nasdaq and the S&P have bounced
1:26:31off of a 45-minute level of demand
1:26:33overnight. And it is supporting this
1:26:35market here.
1:26:38Oh, yeah, that long-term is looking very
1:26:39nice right now.
1:26:41Portfolio.
1:26:44The best thing that I did was I bought
1:26:46the 2X ETF of Tesla.
1:26:48So, if Tesla's up 2%, I'm up four over
1:26:504% right now on this long-term.
1:26:53Still holding that trade strong.
1:27:03Kind of like this pullback here on ES
1:27:05for a quick little five-point, six-point
1:27:07rally up into the 14s.
1:27:09I like how this pullback's holding on
1:27:11pretty aggressive selling.
1:27:14It's pulling back right into the first
1:27:15minute period of consolidation.
1:27:18And it's being supported here. Um and we
1:27:20have yet to test that upside level. So,
1:27:22that upside level could be a magnet
1:27:23here.
1:27:25Uh it's a small little
1:27:26meat on the bone type of setup because,
1:27:28you know, that level of interest is only
1:27:31six points away, but
1:27:36VIX
1:27:37>> [sighs]
1:27:40>> moving down.
1:27:43Yeah, I kind of like this S&P to go test
1:27:45that 14s to 16s right now.
1:27:49This pullback is similar to the
1:27:51scenarios that we saw last week where we
1:27:53pulled back, it's done on aggressive
1:27:55selling, and it's holding. So, let's see
1:27:57if this range continues to hold.
1:27:59Just for a quick pop up into the 14-16s.
1:28:03Right, if the market moves up and then
1:28:04pulls back and or consolidates on
1:28:07aggressive selling, but that holds and
1:28:09supports the market and continues to
1:28:11consolidate,
1:28:13usually is a very bullish indication
1:28:14just for a quick little little more
1:28:16upside.
1:28:19We also have a failed P shape as well.
1:28:21It once was a clear P and now it's kind
1:28:23of developing, which just shows that
1:28:25those sellers
1:28:26on the footprint lacked the downside
1:28:29continuation.
1:28:37I just got alerted on something.
1:28:39Kind of stock is this?
1:28:42Holy
1:28:44I just got alerted on B O X L. It's up
1:28:47380% today. What the hell is that?
1:28:53I don't even remember setting an alert
1:28:55on that. I think that I I think I set an
1:28:56alert on this back when I was trading
1:28:57penny stocks in like 2017.
1:29:02If that's even a thing. I don't even
1:29:04remember
1:29:06B O X L up 390% today.
1:29:12All right, I'm watching this pullback
1:29:13here on ES. Let's see if we hold above
1:29:15the opening print. We're we're
1:29:17supporting the opening print pretty well
1:29:18right now.
1:29:21If this could hold the open, I might
1:29:22take a stab at it going for the 14s.
1:29:26Doesn't look like it's holding it
1:29:27though.
1:29:29B O X L, that is insanity.
1:29:33Does anybody know if you could see when
1:29:35you set an alert on TOS? Like I want to
1:29:37know when that alert was set.
1:29:48Opening uh holding the open right now.
1:29:51Let's see if we can start catching a
1:29:52little bit of a bid off of it.
1:30:02So, main thing I'm watching for now is
1:30:03just if aggressive buying could comes
1:30:05in.
1:30:06I'd look to enter these 08s, 09s
1:30:08targeting the 15s, 16s.
1:30:14But I want to see the aggressive buying
1:30:15come in first.
1:30:21I just like all the selling here
1:30:22supporting the market. It's holding
1:30:24above the opening print. We've yet to
1:30:25test the upside levels.
1:30:29All right, I'm trying this at the 08s.
1:30:30I'm going to be going for the 15, 16
1:30:33target first and then I'll target the
1:30:3519s. I'm going to put my stop tight.
1:30:36It's two points under the low of day.
1:30:39I mean it's under the low of day, two
1:30:40points above my entry.
1:30:43This is just saying that the upside
1:30:44level is going to be a magnetic force to
1:30:46price. We're seeing a lot of selling on
1:30:48this pullback.
1:30:49We're holding above the opening print.
1:30:51We just consolidated at the low and
1:30:53we've yet to test the upside price. So,
1:30:55it's worth a two-point risk for me.
1:30:57Two points super small for an
1:30:59eight-point, nine-point target to the
1:31:00upside.
1:31:02It's like a four and a half to five R.
1:31:08It held that opening print significantly
1:31:10well
1:31:12on aggressive selling.
1:31:21Strong block order just came in right
1:31:23there for the sell side.
1:31:25Strong at bid trade just came in at the
1:31:2608s.
1:31:29Pretty heavy volume on that.
1:31:39And it's holding pretty well, which is
1:31:41good to see.
1:31:42You know, it could just support that
1:31:43thesis of a passive buyer here.
1:31:45Let's see the high of day being taken
1:31:46out now. I would really love to see the
1:31:48high of day.
1:31:50Here we go, going for that high.
1:31:56Come on, strong pop up into the 15s,
1:31:5816s.
1:32:01I'd love to see this have success above
1:32:03the high.
1:32:05I would not want to see this fail to
1:32:06break the high of day on this action
1:32:08that we're seeing here.
1:32:22Tesla is still up. It's up 3% right now.
1:32:26Let's see a high strong high of day
1:32:28break come here on the ask. Come on.
1:32:30Break that high of day strong and an
1:32:31impulsive pop up into the target.
1:32:36Here we go. High of day being tested.
1:32:38So, the main thing that I'm watching for
1:32:40here is just aggressive prints hitting
1:32:41the offer.
1:32:43And then as the market breaks the high,
1:32:45I want to see stronger bids on the
1:32:47passive side of the market supporting
1:32:49the breakout. I would not want to see
1:32:51it, let's just say it break the high and
1:32:53then come back into the range and
1:32:54selling come in.
1:32:58All we're going for is a target up into
1:33:00the 50s.
1:33:04And broke the high and it's moving back
1:33:05into the range.
1:33:08I'd like to see a more aggressive break
1:33:09than that. Come on.
1:33:14You got this buyers.
1:33:17Tesla up over up over 3% now. It's
1:33:20testing 440. Pretty insane.
1:33:24Nasdaq has yet to break that all-time
1:33:26high, that Friday high at the 24888.
1:33:30It's again still 30 points away.
1:33:32S&P test a new high of day up into the
1:33:3413s. All we need is a strong pop into
1:33:36the 15s, 16s. I'm going to get out of
1:33:37this trade. Depending on the break, it's
1:33:39going to be dependent on my scale.
1:33:41Maybe scale 50%, 75%, or 100% depending
1:33:45on how strong it is coming into the
1:33:47target or how weak it is coming into the
1:33:49target.
1:33:53At this point up over 2R on the setup,
1:33:55but has yet to hit target.
1:34:02Here's 13's offering.
1:34:0614's to 16's. I'll make it a general
1:34:08range. 14's to 19's is where I'm looking
1:34:10to exit this trade dependent on how
1:34:12strong the pop is. All right, into the
1:34:1314's. 400 lots hitting the offer here.
1:34:16It's failed to break above it. 421 on
1:34:19the offer at the 67 14's.
1:34:22No sign of trading above it.
1:34:26Stop's now adjusted to break even.
1:34:31Have yet to exit at the target at the
1:34:3314's.
1:34:34Honestly going for a little bit more.
1:34:36This thing has a little more juice up.
1:34:38Uh we've yet to test that
1:34:41Thursday high.
1:34:43And I've yet to test the low volume
1:34:44node. We're just tethering it with it
1:34:46right now.
1:34:48But technically 14's target did hit. I'm
1:34:50just going for a little bit more on
1:34:52this.
1:34:58I want to see 15 16's.
1:35:10Stop is adjusted to break even, however.
1:35:14Trade's currently up 3R.
1:35:20You look at the offer side, there's 421
1:35:22hit the offer at the 14's. Zero hit the
1:35:24bid.
1:35:25So there is a passive sell order that's
1:35:27stopping the market and stopping the
1:35:29aggressive buying from breaking above
1:35:30it. We need to see a strong break above
1:35:32it to validate this into our 15 16's
1:35:34target.
1:35:42The buying's really trying up here,
1:35:43which is a good sign to see. We don't
1:35:45want to see this buying fail, I'll tell
1:35:46you that.
1:35:48The buying is really trying to stick
1:35:49here and it's really trying.
1:35:56Would not want to see this fail.
1:35:59I just had a Oh, 1280 on the offer. You
1:36:01see that? 1280 sitting on the offer
1:36:03here. Here's the 14s. Here's the 15s.
1:36:06All right, looking to scale out here on
1:36:07a sign of strength. First sign of
1:36:09weakness, I'm looking to get out of this
1:36:10trade. There's a zero print sitting at
1:36:11the 14s.
1:36:12Zero print sitting at the 14s.
1:36:15Supported, filled.
1:36:18Strong pop up. I'm exiting this trade
1:36:19here. 15 16s.
1:36:23Here we go.
1:36:32Here's 15s.
1:36:38322 delta at the 15s.
1:36:47I'm looking to get out of this trade
1:36:48here.
1:36:49Strong pop. Come on. Give me one more
1:36:51pop. One more impulse.
1:36:57I don't want to get greedy with this
1:36:58though.
1:36:59There is high volume forming here on the
1:37:01new current footprint bar.
1:37:03You know, so if the selling comes in,
1:37:04this could form into a P.
1:37:06I don't want to get greedy with this.
1:37:10I want to see 15s bid.
1:37:16Here we go. 15s.
1:37:2115s 15s. Come on. Bid. Bid. 16s. 16s.
1:37:31Strong volume's coming in, man.
1:37:35I don't want to exit this just yet.
1:37:36Strong volume's coming in.
1:37:43All right, I'm out 15s. I'm out.
1:37:46I'll take my seven points on two on two
1:37:48points of risk.
1:37:49I'm out of the 15s.
1:37:52This thing definitely has a little more
1:37:53strength, but
1:37:55I'm taking my four R on that.
1:37:59I'm not going to get greedy with it. You
1:38:00know, this thing could go to the 19s,
1:38:0120s.
1:38:04I don't want to get greedy with it.
1:38:06Nice little four R in the first 20
1:38:08minutes.
1:38:09And here it goes. Can't look at where
1:38:11it's going to go now after.
1:38:14The buying is definitely strong,
1:38:15however.
1:38:17Ah, look at that.
1:38:20The buying's strong. We're forming zero
1:38:21prints to the upside. There's strong
1:38:23blue positive delta as the market's
1:38:25rallying.
1:38:30Nice trade in the first 20.
1:38:32All that thesis was, ready? Simple. Ah,
1:38:35look at this freaking thing.
1:38:38There's the 19s. Here would have This
1:38:40would have been my final target here,
1:38:41these 19s. Ah.
1:38:45If anybody is in long, definitely I
1:38:46would highly recommend de-risking and
1:38:49scaling out at least some here at these
1:38:5119s. This thing could go break the
1:38:53all-time highs, but taking some profits
1:38:55off and scaling out would be a good move
1:38:57here at these 19s.
1:39:00Shoulda, woulda, coulda, right? An extra
1:39:01four points would have been nice, but
1:39:04I'll take that four R all day long.
1:39:07Um all right, so this thesis was simple,
1:39:09ready? Market opened up,
1:39:11right? In the first three minutes,
1:39:14first three minutes of the market being
1:39:16open, we were significantly bid, right?
1:39:18And then looking at the order flow
1:39:20in the first three minutes,
1:39:23we were significantly bid, and then
1:39:25around 9:31 there was a little tiny
1:39:28pullback. I'm talking two points, two
1:39:30and a half points,
1:39:32at 9:32.
1:39:35Around 6707,
1:39:38call it 6707, it was a pullback 9:31 for
1:39:4130 seconds, time.
1:39:44Then the market pulled back around 9:36
1:39:47to 9:40 and we held the open print.
1:39:51Right? So, on the footprint chart, I
1:39:53have it coded to the open.
1:39:54We held the open and from that period of
1:39:579:35 to 9:40, 9:41, there was a
1:40:00significant amount of selling volume
1:40:01coming in and holding on the pullback.
1:40:03This is why it's important to review the
1:40:05data because last week
1:40:07there were so many setups in the past
1:40:09few weeks where the market rallies, it
1:40:10pulls back, and on that pullback, we
1:40:12were aggressively
1:40:14hitting the bid and the market was not
1:40:16selling off. So, not only did we have a
1:40:18passive buyer with that analysis because
1:40:21there was a ton of aggressive selling
1:40:22and the market was not selling off. We
1:40:25were holding VWAP.
1:40:27We were holding today's open price. I
1:40:29mean, today's open was 6706.
1:40:31It held it perfectly. And we were
1:40:33holding on the passive sell buying at
1:40:35VWAP and without the upside level being
1:40:38touched, which I used that upside level
1:40:40as a magnet and another piece of
1:40:42confluence uh to take this long. So,
1:40:45I mean, again, as I stated before, too,
1:40:48this was a setup where what was
1:40:50not a 10-20 point target. This was small
1:40:53risk getting in and putting our risk at
1:40:55the open price, right? When we got long
1:40:57at 6708,
1:40:59we were putting our stop under the lower
1:41:00day, which was two points, right? So,
1:41:03long at the 08s targeting the 15-16s,
1:41:07that's a 4R.
1:41:08Right? It doesn't equate to a lot of
1:41:11points, 10, 12, 15 points that we're
1:41:13normally going for, but when we had two
1:41:15points of risk and our stop where we
1:41:17going to invalidate this trade being so
1:41:19tight, we could go in with larger size
1:41:21and adjust to fit a two-point stop loss,
1:41:24right? Technically, if our average stop
1:41:25loss is four, five points, we can go in
1:41:27with double the size on a trade like
1:41:29this cuz our risk is super small.
1:41:31Right? So, being able to adjust and
1:41:33saying, "Hey, all right, maybe I'm only
1:41:34going for an eight-point target here."
1:41:36That's fine. I could double my size cuz
1:41:39my stop loss is only two points away.
1:41:41And yeah, eight points might not be a
1:41:42lot, seven points might not be a lot,
1:41:44but when you double your size, that's
1:41:45technically 14 points or eight or 16
1:41:47points on your normal size.
1:41:50So, adjusting relative to the risk is
1:41:52crucial, especially in a market where
1:41:54the ranges haven't been
1:41:56significant.
1:42:00And
1:42:01uh
1:42:03you know, playing a scenario like this.
1:42:04This This was a trade that appeared
1:42:07multiple amounts of times in the past
1:42:09few weeks, and if it wasn't for me
1:42:11reviewing the data that I did yesterday,
1:42:13I I don't know if I would have had the
1:42:15confidence to take a setup like this.
1:42:17But, multiple things aligned and and
1:42:19that was pretty much it.
1:42:22Nasdaq has not hit all-time high yet,
1:42:24eight points away from it.
1:42:26Tesla up 3 and 1/2%. I don't want to
1:42:28keep looking at my portfolio cuz when
1:42:30you look at your portfolio, it's always
1:42:32a good time to sell it.
1:42:34But, I'm just going to do it.
1:42:39Very nice. Up close to 7% right now.
1:42:46Does that trade make sense?
1:42:49Before we look for another setup. Did I
1:42:50Does everybody understand that trade?
1:42:59Okay, cool. Yeah, it's it's super
1:43:00simple.
1:43:02Jericho does not understand it. So, all
1:43:04it was was the opening print.
1:43:06The market pulled back from 9:35 to
1:43:08about 9:45, call it, with aggressive
1:43:11selling. But, the market was not selling
1:43:13off. It remained bid, which means
1:43:15somebody is passively buying it, similar
1:43:17to what we saw the past 2 weeks on every
1:43:20single pullback. Specifically, I'll tell
1:43:22you the what day it was.
1:43:24Uh I think it was like a Thursday, and I
1:43:26kept taking the market short. Yeah, it
1:43:28was on uh 9/11, actually.
1:43:31Every single pullback was met with
1:43:33aggressive selling that wasn't selling
1:43:35the market off lower.
1:43:38And that to me was a very bullish sign,
1:43:41which indicated for me today to try a
1:43:43long, holding VWAP, holding the opening
1:43:46print. Aggressive selling, which just
1:43:47means a passive buyer was supporting the
1:43:49market, and we have yet to test the
1:43:51upside level of supply, so I was using
1:43:52that as a magnet. Four points of
1:43:54confluence there.
1:43:57Where do I see zero prints? I see zero
1:43:59prints at uh
1:44:01on the uh on a volume profile. I look at
1:44:03on my depth of market, it's it's easier
1:44:05for me to see them.
1:44:07So.
1:44:08This long thesis is over with. I'm I'm
1:44:10I'm not interested in longing this at
1:44:12this moment. You know, the the it
1:44:14fulfilled our target hit.
1:44:16The 16s to 19s hit. We're actually
1:44:18rejecting the 19s very well.
1:44:21Uh so right now, in terms of another
1:44:22setup, I'm I'm going to be patient. Let
1:44:23just the market develop a little bit
1:44:25more.
1:44:28And also, if anybody uses a footprint,
1:44:31there was a perfect B-shape there as
1:44:32well on the 9:39 footprint.
1:44:35Right? We look for B uh B-shapes.
1:44:38Perfect B-shape down there as well. So,
1:44:40five points of confluence there.
1:44:44Um somebody asked, "There was a plus
1:44:461,500 lot delta at 13s, 14s when I got
1:44:49out. Would that have made any difference
1:44:51to you holding the position?" Um you
1:44:53know, maybe if I'm a little more patient
1:44:54with this, but
1:44:56when my risk is two points, and I'm in
1:44:59with the size that I'm in, I can't
1:45:00afford
1:45:02not getting out when my target hits like
1:45:04this, because any sharp pullback,
1:45:07whether that's two points, three points,
1:45:09right? Any quick little pullback, number
1:45:11one is going to diminish my profits, and
1:45:13number two is going to skew up my risk
1:45:15to reward. Right? Think about it. Like
1:45:17if my stop loss is two points away, a
1:45:19sharp pullback, and like this is a mild
1:45:23example,
1:45:24a a pullback might come two, three
1:45:26points, and that's wiping a 1R away from
1:45:28me right there. So, for me
1:45:31technically stating I should have been
1:45:33remaining in this if the 13s, 14s held.
1:45:37I think how you pronounce your name is
1:45:38Aryan.
1:45:40Sorry if I mispronounce it. I honestly
1:45:41hate when people mispronounce my name.
1:45:44So, I'm sorry if I ever botch anybody's
1:45:45name, but
1:45:47um technically speaking
1:45:50as long as the market remains above that
1:45:51large delta, there's no reason to be out
1:45:54of this trade, but for me with how I was
1:45:56in and how I confirmed it
1:45:58when when my target hits for this
1:45:59specific setup because it was like not a
1:46:01lot of meat on this bone, I I got to get
1:46:03out because again a pullback is going to
1:46:05diminish my RR.
1:46:07But, yeah.
1:46:09It's still strong. Like I mentioned when
1:46:10I got out, this thing
1:46:12has strong buying. It's just that I
1:46:15don't have the patience for it and I
1:46:16can't have the patience for it on this
1:46:18specific setup.
1:46:21Nasdaq right near all-time highs.
1:46:23>> [sighs]
1:46:37>> I had a FedEx ringing my doorbell.
1:46:40I ordered a new iPhone on uh last week
1:46:44and I freaking wasn't home on Friday to
1:46:46sign for it.
1:46:47And uh they rang my doorbell. I knew I
1:46:49had to go answer that.
1:46:54Look at this thing. It's still remaining
1:46:55bid.
1:46:56It's still very, very strong.
1:47:01Anybody still in this? Anybody still
1:47:02holding runners? I'm curious.
1:47:04At least some of the position still on?
1:47:07Man, Tesla up 4%.
1:47:10Sheesh.
1:47:23All right, market's going to open here
1:47:24shortly. Uh main thing that I am
1:47:26watching for today is this 6672
1:47:30all the way down to about 6660
1:47:32level of interest, which just represents
1:47:35yesterday's number one close, number two
1:47:38highest amount of volume, and number
1:47:40three previous day high. So, three
1:47:42points of confluence right there. Also
1:47:44have view up in the middle of it. Um so,
1:47:48watching for a pullback into this for
1:47:50any type of of buying activity
1:47:52uh where I'm going to look to get long.
1:47:55To the upside, if the market does rally,
1:47:57uh 6687
1:47:59has been a tough key level of resistance
1:48:02the past few sessions. I don't know if
1:48:03you all remember that from uh
1:48:05last
1:48:10September 16th, last two Tuesdays ago.
1:48:14Uh it's just been a key level that the
1:48:16market has kept resisting and
1:48:18supporting. And now, overnight off PCE
1:48:20data, we've hit this level uh and
1:48:23resisted it pretty well. So, if the
1:48:24market could break above it, hold above
1:48:26it, I'm going to be looking for longs
1:48:28targeting 6700, 6705 for some type of
1:48:31continuation. And I don't really want to
1:48:33start turning bearish just yet until
1:48:36like the 6650s
1:48:38uh
1:48:38and below or are broken because
1:48:41there's two larger drops to the downside
1:48:44from yesterday's sell-off
1:48:46that got bought up. So, it's very safe
1:48:48to say that we're going to have buyers
1:48:49that are factored in here at the 40s, at
1:48:52the 45s, the 35s from this drop to the
1:48:55downside. So, I would be very cautious
1:48:58shorting a drop
1:49:00uh still above this level
1:49:02come today.
1:49:04But, again, as always, have a plan,
1:49:07follow a plan. The market is a mechanism
1:49:09that is constantly providing us new
1:49:11information, and it's our job to read
1:49:14this new information and, you know, go
1:49:15with the flows of the market. So, let's
1:49:18see what's going to happen here.
1:49:20We're going to open up in about a
1:49:21minute.
1:49:21>> [sighs]
1:49:25>> Market is now open.
1:49:28Large bids now filling at these lows
1:49:30directly at the open.
1:49:34So, it's probably going to be a volatile
1:49:36one.
1:49:51So, ideally now need to see a reclaim
1:49:53back above uh 6672, 6675 to validate any
1:49:58long thesis. I don't know really right
1:50:01now with this structure and information
1:50:02if this is a buy the dip scenario. This
1:50:04may be let the dip
1:50:06rally, let buyers, you know, try to
1:50:09attempt the bounce, and then once they
1:50:11prove strength to the upside, then can
1:50:12look to follow their footsteps.
1:50:21Okay, so now we're reclaiming back above
1:50:23those 6676s.
1:50:25This is where it becomes very
1:50:26interesting to me cuz we're seeing these
1:50:27buyers at the low fill with all these
1:50:30bids. We're seeing the aggressive buying
1:50:32coming in on the footprint, and now
1:50:33we're bouncing off this level of support
1:50:35here. So, this is looking very good to
1:50:36go break the 6687s,
1:50:3888s. I'm going to be looking for a
1:50:40pullback into the 6675s.
1:50:446675s a sharp pullback to get long.
1:50:53And this thing's [snorts] just going
1:50:53vertical.
1:50:55I need to enter on a pullback. I can't
1:50:57enter on this on this rally here.
1:51:00Oh, well, perfect bounce off the level.
1:51:03There's no confirmation just yet. It's
1:51:05just a vertical move up.
1:51:13Need to see a pullback. There's also a
1:51:15zero print sitting at the 74s.
1:51:25Valid zero print sitting at 6674.
1:51:36>> [sighs]
1:51:37>> Here goes to break these pre-market
1:51:38highs. If it hits the target first, then
1:51:40this pullback is going to become, you
1:51:42know, less of a high-quality setup for
1:51:43me.
1:51:47Wow, just a straight vertical move up.
1:51:54Directly at our level of interest.
1:52:01I mean, that's 20 points right there in
1:52:035 minutes, 4 minutes, not even.
1:52:0620 points in 4 minutes.
1:52:14And here comes the pre-market highs.
1:52:166690.
1:52:20>> [sighs]
1:52:21>> Insanity.
1:52:23I I can't so the issues that I have with
1:52:26now longing a a significant rally like
1:52:28this, right? If I'm long here at the
1:52:306686s, number one, I'm longing near the
1:52:32pre-market highs. Number two, where am I
1:52:34going to place my stop? If I'm long here
1:52:36at 6686, for me to be incorrect on this
1:52:38setup, my stop would have to be under
1:52:40the 7472s.
1:52:42So, that means my risk would be about 12
1:52:44points if I enter this setup right now.
1:52:46So, in terms of confirmation, it's
1:52:48great, but in terms of risk to reward,
1:52:49longing after an extended move without a
1:52:51pullback for me is just not something
1:52:53that's super ideal.
1:52:57Look at this thing. It's just non-stop
1:52:58bidding, bidding, bidding.
1:53:00Uh this is a good setup if anybody isn't
1:53:02long off the key level.
1:53:04I mean, perfect bounce off of
1:53:06Perfect aggressive buying.
1:53:57All right, so basically what I just
1:53:59posted in the Discord is that if we
1:54:00break these pre-market highs at 6690 and
1:54:03we do go up to our target at the 6700,
1:54:066705s first without pulling back and
1:54:09filling the zero prints which formed at
1:54:116674.
1:54:14All right, zero prints that did fill or
1:54:16did form at 6674 and a half.
1:54:19Want to mark these on my charts now. If
1:54:21we pull back first
1:54:24without filling these zero prints, let's
1:54:26go here.
1:54:28All right, valid zero print 6674 and a
1:54:30half.
1:54:31Um
1:54:33if we pull back before breaking the
1:54:34pre-market highs,
1:54:36I will then look to long this pull back
1:54:38into those zero prints at the 75, 74s.
1:54:41If we do break the pre-market highs,
1:54:436690, and we do hit 6700, 6705, and then
1:54:47sellers appear, if that occurs first
1:54:49before the zero print fills, I'll look
1:54:51to reverse this rally targeting the zero
1:54:53print. All right, we all know how strong
1:54:54the zero prints are. They act like
1:54:56magnetic forces for the market.
1:54:58Um there is a valid one at 6674 from
1:55:01this rally, so
1:55:03we're building a lot of volume near
1:55:05these highs.
1:55:08Right, value is trying to get accepted
1:55:10much higher.
1:55:15So, when we see consolidation like this
1:55:19uh it's indicating that the market is is
1:55:21accepting these higher prices, which
1:55:24then makes me more inclined to want to
1:55:25be long in a pullback. You know, if a
1:55:27sharp sudden pullback would come back
1:55:29into this level uh this to me and fill
1:55:31the zero print would be a good little
1:55:32long opportunity to go target the high
1:55:34of day.
1:55:36So, it's really dependent on does this
1:55:37high get taken out? Does the pre-market
1:55:39highs break?
1:55:41Do we pull back first?
1:55:42But, I would say probably the first
1:55:44thing is going to happen where we're
1:55:45going to break these pre-market highs.
1:55:50Pre-market highs exactly is 90
1:55:5790 and a quarter.
1:55:58Pre-market highs.
1:56:01Excuse me, 90 and a quarter.
1:56:08All right, so
1:56:09now that we did break the pre-market
1:56:11highs, my analysis is shifting a little
1:56:12bit since the market's not pulling back
1:56:14to speculate that a pullback's coming.
1:56:17And I can speculate that if a pullback
1:56:18does come, it's likely to go fill the
1:56:19zero print sitting at the 6674s.
1:56:22Uh now that the pre-market high is taken
1:56:24out, so now my analysis is shifting not
1:56:26for a trend short, but more for a
1:56:28pullback short. Uh because a relief
1:56:30needs to come to fill those zero prints.
1:56:34So, let's see. We just filled this
1:56:35offer. Now, the selling pressure is
1:56:36coming in.
1:56:40And especially that value is shifting
1:56:42higher.
1:56:44Uh this isn't necessarily a trend, so to
1:56:46speak. This is necessarily a little more
1:56:49of a quick little relief to go fill
1:56:51those zero prints.
1:56:53Also, yesterday's close is around 6692,
1:56:57which is right where we're hitting,
1:56:5966.91.
1:57:00So, yesterday's settlement right around
1:57:02there.
1:57:07All right, so what's in my head right
1:57:07now is mainly just now observing for any
1:57:09type of either A, buyers to become
1:57:11trapped, C any or B any type of
1:57:14absorption,
1:57:15or C any type of strong aggressive
1:57:17selling to go for that quick little
1:57:19pullback.
1:57:20It's just a little difficult to short
1:57:21this pullback because of how strong and
1:57:23aggressive the buying is, but
1:57:26there hasn't been one relief pullback
1:57:28yet.
1:57:29Value is shifting higher.
1:57:34Maybe we looked to long a quick pullback
1:57:36and say that 6700 needs to trade first,
1:57:396700, 6705s.
1:57:43All right, this previous level right
1:57:44here that we have.
1:57:47Maybe this needs to trade first.
1:57:53So, I'm even going to shift my analysis
1:57:55towards
1:57:57not even shorting this upside since the
1:57:59value is shifting higher, right? We know
1:58:01value is shifting higher by looking at
1:58:02the profile, volume's developing.
1:58:05I would even look to be long and now a
1:58:06pullback into 6686,
1:58:09all the way down to 6680s about
1:58:13Uh if we pull back into this, this is
1:58:14going to be my line in the sand for that
1:58:16downside move. So,
1:58:19looking for a pullback into 6686,
1:58:2685s
1:58:28and under
1:58:30uh to get long targeting 6700,
1:58:346705.
1:58:36If these 86s
1:58:39and 85s are broken,
1:58:43I favor more drop to fill the zero print
1:58:47at 6674.
1:58:50That's my plan.
1:58:54So, looking along these 6686s
1:58:57to like 82s,
1:58:59just a general range right here.
1:59:03Uh if we pull back into this and hold,
1:59:04I'm going to be looking for a long
1:59:06targeting 6700.
1:59:08Right? We're kind of not going after the
1:59:10zero print. If the market does break
1:59:11this level at 6686 and fails to support
1:59:15it, I favor that zero print filling.
1:59:18I favor that zero print filling if the
1:59:20market fails to hold
1:59:22of this level right here.
1:59:29Or holding it, large bid just came in
1:59:31here.
1:59:32Large bid just came in.
1:59:36Another large bid just came in.
1:59:39All right, we're seeing these bids fill.
1:59:40I'm going to be looking for a long here.
1:59:43I'm going to be looking for a long here
1:59:44at these 86s, 87s.
1:59:49I'm going to be looking for a long here
1:59:50at 6686,
1:59:5187s.
1:59:54Bids filling, holding this level,
1:59:55pulling back.
1:59:57Upside levels still haven't triggered.
2:00:02It's going without me.
2:00:04The pull back the the entry was at the
2:00:0586s, 87s.
2:00:08Not here at the 92s, right? Cuz we're
2:00:09targeting If we're targeting 6700,
2:00:12that's eight points of target right
2:00:13there.
2:00:146705, that's 13 points of target. For me
2:00:17to place my stop loss on this, it's got
2:00:18to be under the 85s.
2:00:20Here it goes without us. Mm.
2:00:28Look at that revival. Look at that
2:00:30rebound right there.
2:00:32That was the trade right there.
2:00:38That was the trade right there.
2:00:45That was the setup right there.
2:00:48I wouldn't even mind at this rate a
2:00:49pullback into 6690, 6688 to try another
2:00:54long.
2:00:5990s to 88s, I wouldn't mind a pullback
2:01:01into that.
2:01:03I don't think we're going to get it.
2:01:05But, the entry was down there.
2:01:11See what happens when a quick second
2:01:13a quick second
2:01:15of not entering could do to a position.
2:01:21What the heck was that?
2:01:24See what happens to a quick second, what
2:01:26that could do to a position.
2:01:31Insanity, right?
2:01:37Give me a pullback into the 90s.
2:01:43See what happens with a a split-second
2:01:46decision of not entering could do to a
2:01:48position
2:01:50in short-term trading.
2:01:57And value is shifting higher again.
2:02:10That was the setup right there.
2:02:12You know, you'd be sitting very pretty
2:02:13if you long that pullback into the 86s,
2:02:1682s.
2:02:17You'd be sitting very pretty up here.
2:02:19Trading near the high of day with all
2:02:21this consolidation, all this aggressive
2:02:22buying.
2:02:35Okay, so now we're pulling back into
2:02:36this range.
2:02:38We do have consumer sentiment coming out
2:02:39in less than 10 minutes here.
2:02:45Let's see what happens if these 90s bids
2:02:46fill here.
2:02:48Right directly under this, we have a
2:02:49significant level of high volume sitting
2:02:51at the 90s 89s.
2:02:53And directly under that, we have those
2:02:5486s that just supported the market on
2:02:56that pullback. Let's see what happens
2:02:57here at these 90s.
2:03:02The most amount of selling that we've
2:03:03seen so far has been here uh at this
2:03:06high a day and the market is still
2:03:07holding.
2:03:09I would like to see these 90s fail
2:03:10though.
2:03:11I would like to see these 90s fail.
2:03:15All right, these bids that are sitting
2:03:16here.
2:03:17And then we even have this activity of
2:03:19where those bids kept appearing down
2:03:21here at these 87s, right? We see this
2:03:23bid appears, bid fills. Bid appears, bid
2:03:26fills. These 86s 87s. So, even a deeper
2:03:29pullback into the 90s to 86s I would
2:03:32like.
2:03:37Got to follow my rules, right?
2:03:40One of the worst things that we could do
2:03:41as traders is bend our rules just one
2:03:43time to make money. It might give you
2:03:44that instant gratification to make
2:03:46money.
2:03:47And you might feel good in that moment.
2:03:49But breaking habits and instilling bad
2:03:52habits is detrimental to our trading.
2:03:55You know, doing something one time and
2:03:57getting rewarded on it subconsciously
2:03:58rewards our brain thinking that's the
2:04:00right decision.
2:04:02I just can't do it.
2:04:08I need I would love to see these 90s
2:04:10bids fill, but
2:04:12it's just not doing it.
2:04:14All right, we see these 90s right here?
2:04:18Value shifting. We're holding above
2:04:20yesterday's settlement.
2:04:23We're seeing the buying activity at the
2:04:2586s.
2:04:26We're seeing the bids fill. We still
2:04:28have unfilled levels at the
2:04:30set 6705 6700s.
2:04:35We do have 5 minutes until consumer
2:04:37sentiment, though.
2:04:41Less than 5 minutes until consumer
2:04:43sentiment.
2:04:45Break this low. It's I just want to see
2:04:47the reaction under this low right here.
2:04:49Right? Under this previous little drop
2:04:51consolidation low.
2:04:54As we come into a major market event,
2:04:55however, like consumer sentiment,
2:04:58the volatility doesn't pick up. I got to
2:05:00wait until after consumer sentiment.
2:05:02It's a gamble holding into the news like
2:05:03this or data.
2:05:07I think that trade before is a really
2:05:08good example of how
2:05:11thinking too much or waiting to enter
2:05:14in the matter of seconds can completely
2:05:16influence
2:05:18a trade on you or not.
2:05:21And that's the reality of short-term
2:05:23trading. You know, thinking too much, a
2:05:25split-second hesitation can make or
2:05:28break a trade.
2:05:29It really could.
2:05:36We're going to look at these two bars,
2:05:38right?
2:05:40On the footprint chart, the most amount
2:05:42of selling we've seen here
2:05:45has been on these two recent bars right
2:05:48here.
2:05:49All right, we can see that also on the
2:05:50heat map. We can see a significant
2:05:52amount of red selling as the market's
2:05:54pulling back.
2:05:55This was the same exact trade that I
2:05:57took earlier this week on Monday where I
2:05:59took the market long in the first few
2:06:00minutes
2:06:01uh as it was pulling back on aggressive
2:06:03selling. We're seeing all the aggressive
2:06:04selling here holding on a pullback. This
2:06:06could be the sign of a passive buyer.
2:06:08And with all the context that I've been
2:06:09explaining so far, it really does fit
2:06:12the whole theme of a buyer is active
2:06:13here.
2:06:15It's going to just suck uh if the 6700
2:06:186705s trade first
2:06:21cuz that would just complete this whole
2:06:22thesis and complete the whole trade.
2:06:262 minutes until consumer sentiment,
2:06:28however.
2:06:31I don't like opening up or initiating a
2:06:32trade into a high impact data like this.
2:06:36Right? Because think about it. If I'm
2:06:38long at these 90s, 92s,
2:06:40and we're just hanging out here right
2:06:41before consumer sentiment, if the
2:06:43consumer sentiment leads to a negative
2:06:45reaction in the market, it
2:06:47is a gamble, right? It could lead to a
2:06:49positive one and the market just
2:06:50absolutely skyrockets and it makes me
2:06:52money.
2:06:53Or it could absolutely dump on me and it
2:06:54has no control of me getting out of that
2:06:56trade at the price I want to pay.
2:06:58And that's a gamble in my opinion. Is
2:07:02being in a position where
2:07:05there's
2:07:06a 50/50 outcome in terms of
2:07:08uncontrollable event in the market.
2:07:14Ah, it stinks seeing this thing at the
2:07:16high.
2:07:18But
2:07:19if anybody is ever in a position and
2:07:22uh
2:07:25they see that volume is building higher,
2:07:28volume is building lower, that means
2:07:29that move is accepting those lower or
2:07:31higher prices. It is a very good sign to
2:07:34either A, you know, long a pullback or a
2:07:37short a rally, depending on the context,
2:07:40and that more upside or more downside is
2:07:43likely as the market is accepting those
2:07:45higher or lower prices. In this example,
2:07:47we've seen that as the market's breaking
2:07:49out, we're seeing the pullbacks hold
2:07:51from buying, we're seeing the passive
2:07:53selling,
2:07:54um or the passive buying, and
2:07:57we're seeing the value shift
2:07:59significantly higher as the market's
2:08:00breaking out. So, it's a very bullish
2:08:03sign. This is kind of why I'm
2:08:05leaning towards that. 30 seconds until
2:08:07consumer sentiment.
2:08:235 seconds.
2:08:25I hope it pulls back and not rallies.
2:08:296700 is the target.
2:08:32If anybody is in long off these 6700s,
2:08:35yeah, there you go.
2:08:38Here's our target, 6700.
2:08:406705, if anybody's still in long.
2:08:45Good area to de-risk yourself.
2:08:49I mean, it's going to be a long shot
2:08:50here, but
2:08:52even a pullback into the 90s to 86s, I
2:08:54would look to enter another long
2:08:57or enter a long.
2:09:00And that's going to be my old That's
2:09:01going to be my line in the sand. If
2:09:03those 90s to 86s are broken,
2:09:06I would then flip my thesis and flip my
2:09:08analysis for downside and look for a
2:09:11short targeting that zero print.
2:09:21So, my new line in the sand is 66
2:09:24uh 90
2:09:26to 6686.
2:09:29We'll be watching if this holds.
2:09:34If this fails, we'll be looking for
2:09:38shorts to target that zero print at 74.
2:09:47So, now we're going to break those 90s
2:09:48in this bid right here.
2:09:52Selling really is increasing. Let's see
2:09:54if this holds. This is going to be key
2:09:55here, these 90s to 86s.
2:09:58It's an old key level. It's where we're
2:09:59seeing passive buying today.
2:10:02It's where these bids are appearing.
2:10:04It's where there's the most amount of
2:10:05selling here. It's just going to be
2:10:07significant moving forward.
2:10:10Large selling delta here.
2:10:131600 delta sitting at the uh 90s.
2:10:25>> All right, so now we're breaking
2:10:29this level pretty aggressively.
2:10:32And now I'm I'm way more inclined to go
2:10:34fill that zero print at the 67 66 74s.
2:10:38The selling is just building, it's
2:10:39expanding. There's large negative delta
2:10:42here. I'm going to be looking for a pop
2:10:44back up into those 86s 90s now to short
2:10:46into. I'll have to target the 74s.
2:11:05Looking for a short up into 66 86 and
2:11:08it's just not going to give it to me.
2:11:10Look at this sell-off, man. Holy.
2:11:16Well, zero prints are filled.
2:11:19Not yet. Not yet.
2:11:22They are not filled yet.
2:11:31All right, I'm even looking to short
2:11:32these 80s here.
2:11:36We can pop into these 80s.
2:11:3980s 84s.
2:11:41Targeting the 74s.
2:11:46We can pop into these 80s 84s.
2:11:51I would target them the 74s.
2:11:57All right, I'm short here off the 80s 80
2:12:00and a halves.
2:12:01Short off the 80 and a halves going for
2:12:02a 74 to 72 target.
2:12:07I'm short here.
2:12:09Stop loss is above the 84s.
2:12:28>> Zero prints still aren't filled. 74 and
2:12:301/2s have not been filled.
2:12:33We just got a strong reaction, strong
2:12:35offer just filled there.
2:12:38Strong offer filled on that pop.
2:12:42Still haven't filled the 74 and 1/2s.
2:12:47Remains unfilled. We came one tick away
2:12:48from it.
2:12:56Back at the 80s again. Let's see if the
2:12:58seller steps in.
2:13:05Here we go.
2:13:07Just targeting the 74.5s
2:13:09to 72s, which is today's open.
2:13:1273s.
2:13:16Three points worth of risk for about an
2:13:18eight-point reward. Here's the 74 and
2:13:201/2s just filled.
2:13:2274 and 1/2 zero print filled. Stop gets
2:13:24adjusted to break even now.
2:13:30I did not get an exit there.
2:13:33The zero print did fill.
2:13:3674 and 1/2s.
2:13:38Give me a second chance there.
2:13:46Just didn't give me an opportunity to
2:13:47exit down here.
2:13:50I'm going to be taking 75% of this off
2:13:53at the 74s.
2:13:5675% of it is off.
2:13:58I'm in small size now. Going for a 72
2:14:01open price.
2:14:06Bid is filling down here.
2:14:09Selling is strong and aggressive.
2:14:12I'm only in six more contracts. Stops to
2:14:15break even on the remainder.
2:14:19Stops break even on the remainder.
2:14:28Here we go.
2:14:30Strong flush.
2:14:31>> [sighs]
2:14:31>> Uh today's opening print is the 73s. I
2:14:33thought it was the 72s. Here's some
2:14:35strong continuation down. I mean, we're
2:14:37right near the low of day. Could this
2:14:38thing break out break down under the low
2:14:40of day?
2:14:42Here's the 73s.
2:14:44Here we go. Here's a strong breakdown.
2:14:46The selling's building.
2:14:48Here we go.
2:14:5072s. Here's a new low of day coming up.
2:14:54I'm out. I'm all out. 71s.
2:14:57All out. 71s.
2:15:00Nice little scalp. Uh the thesis for
2:15:02this was simple. This thing is still
2:15:04weak. I'm just uh it's a little too
2:15:06close to comfort for it down here. It's
2:15:08at a level of support. I don't want to
2:15:10get a little greedy with it. The whole
2:15:12thesis was for the zero print to fill.
2:15:14Filled perfectly.
2:15:15Um so, this trade was very simple,
2:15:17right? Looking at the heat map here,
2:15:20all this morning we were looking for
2:15:21longs. We saw the acceptance much
2:15:23higher.
2:15:24It eventually did break out. Uh we had
2:15:27the zero print that was under price at
2:15:286674 on the candlestick chart. The
2:15:31market did break out and hit our target
2:15:33at 6700, 6705. That validated the long
2:15:37thesis. There was plenty of
2:15:38opportunities, and I know uh some of you
2:15:41right here, I see,
2:15:42took long at the 85s,
2:15:45took long at the 89s. So, I see a lot of
2:15:47you
2:15:48um
2:15:50did get long on that. Unfortunately,
2:15:51just my hesitation made me miss that
2:15:53slightly, and it didn't make sense in
2:15:55terms of RR. Target hit. Long play long
2:15:58trade fulfilled. Then the market dumps,
2:16:00breaks the line of sand.
2:16:02It breaks the line of sand at the 86s,
2:16:04validating weakness there, right? On top
2:16:07of the weakness, we have exhaustion
2:16:08prints if you look at the footprint at
2:16:10the high of day.
2:16:13Exhaustion prints are factored in at the
2:16:15high of day, which indicates selling is
2:16:17very strong.
2:16:19Market breaks the line in the sand,
2:16:20which is the 86's, and then going down
2:16:22to a smaller timeframe,
2:16:24adjusting the level to 6680. What 6680
2:16:27represented was this large offer on the
2:16:30heat map.
2:16:31Right, the market rallied into this
2:16:32large offer, confirmed the weakness,
2:16:34confirmed the break of the line in the
2:16:35sand, confirmed that we have the
2:16:37exhaustion at the high of day,
2:16:40confirmed that the market may want to go
2:16:41revisit the zero print.
2:16:45Offer fills down here on the heat map.
2:16:46We could see it by this uh large red
2:16:48line indicating strong trap uh buyers on
2:16:51this rally up. On the footprint chart,
2:16:53we could also see the P shape, which is
2:16:55what I refer to as trapped buyers,
2:16:56giving me enough confirmation to get
2:16:58short there at the 80's, putting my stop
2:17:00loss above the 83's, which is this
2:17:03little consolidation range right here,
2:17:05which is also the um
2:17:07close of this
2:17:09strong drop 1-minute candle right there
2:17:12as well, a market specifically on my
2:17:14charts right here.
2:17:15Small risk, three points worth of risk
2:17:18for a minimum six to eight points
2:17:20reward. This trade, I believe I closed
2:17:22out like a 3R,
2:17:24which is a very good R, could have been
2:17:26a little more if I held.
2:17:28Offer filled.
2:17:30Double top here at this offer. On the
2:17:32footprint, we could see another P shape.
2:17:35And then we could see a clear rejection
2:17:37on two 1-minute bars at this green box
2:17:39up here at 6680 to fill the zero print.
2:17:42I love zero prints so much. They are
2:17:44just magnetic forces to the market where
2:17:46likes to gravitate towards uh to provide
2:17:49a fair opportunity for other
2:17:50participants to transact in. So,
2:17:53sick day.
2:17:54Um
2:17:55Much needed setup there
2:17:57after missing that morning rally. I
2:17:59mean, that morning rally would have been
2:18:01a a a nice one.
2:18:04But I think that goes to show you to not
2:18:07FOMO into a move, right? I could have
2:18:09easily FOMOed into a move. I could have
2:18:11easily chased the market long. I could
2:18:13have easily just got in cuz I missed the
2:18:15move and wanted to make money on it.
2:18:18But I tried to keep my cool as best as
2:18:20possible and wait for another
2:18:22opportunity.
2:18:24In in I guess you could say hindsight, I
2:18:26mean
2:18:27a great entry would have been at the
2:18:28rejection of this. A great entry would
2:18:30have been much higher cuz that would
2:18:31have been a bigger reward to fill the
2:18:33zero print at the 74s and less risk.
2:18:37But when an opportunity presents itself
2:18:39and you have to take it and that's why I
2:18:41love shorting pops when large offers
2:18:44appear or large trapped buyers appear,
2:18:46right? In this example, we could see the
2:18:48market try to rally up. It Context is
2:18:51fitting. Context, location,
2:18:53confirmation. The context of this move
2:18:55was we broke the line in the sand. Our
2:18:58upside target hit. We see the selling
2:19:00pressure come in, right? At the highs,
2:19:02the most amount of selling pressure was
2:19:03right here.
2:19:05Context is there. Location of this move,
2:19:076680, was where this offer appeared.
2:19:11Confirmation, trapped buyers. We could
2:19:13see it on the footprint. We could see a
2:19:14large green aggressive trades hitting
2:19:17the offer, filling this passive seller.
2:19:20If a large amount of volume comes in
2:19:22aggressively and we cannot overtake this
2:19:24wall of passive selling, this is a very
2:19:26good indication the market may want to
2:19:28go down. Add context and location, we
2:19:30had that downside zero print that filled
2:19:32giving this more validation. Truthfully,
2:19:35if we didn't have that zero print,
2:19:37I don't think I would have taken this
2:19:38trade, but I just know how reliable they
2:19:40are and how the market likes gravitating
2:19:41towards them. So,
2:19:44that's it. I don't really see any other
2:19:46opportunities at this moment, so I'm
2:19:48just going to continue to be patient and
2:19:51that's pretty much it.
2:19:54What I really like to look for
2:19:57>> [snorts]
2:19:57>> is once the weakness is confirmed, once
2:20:00the context is in my favor, and once
2:20:02we're at a good location, a good
2:20:04confirmation signal for me is that what
2:20:06I like to see here. I mean, we see it on
2:20:07two different times on the heat map,
2:20:10right?
2:20:11We see the market rally. I love shorting
2:20:13the pops because it offers better risk
2:20:15to reward. If I short on a pop, I'm
2:20:18basically getting in further away from
2:20:20my target, which makes my reward wider.
2:20:23And if it's moving further away from my
2:20:25target, it makes my stop loss tighter,
2:20:27giving me a better risk to reward ratio.
2:20:29What I like seeing is on the pops, the
2:20:31offers filling when the context fits.
2:20:34And large aggressive buying, right? On
2:20:36this bubble right here, we could see 357
2:20:38contracts hit this offer and the market
2:20:40couldn't rally higher.
2:20:42Same thing we see over here, around the
2:20:4588s. We see this offer appear,
2:20:48large aggressive trades hitting the
2:20:50offer, and then an immediate dump after
2:20:52that. And again, context fitting that
2:20:54gave me the indication that the market
2:20:56would want to go fill that zero print.
2:20:58So, I keep selling off. I can't look at
2:21:00where it's gone. The whole trade idea
2:21:02was for the zero print to fill, but
2:21:05I think that's going to be it for me
2:21:06today.
2:21:07Uh hope you all got some value out of
2:21:09this session and learned something.
2:21:10There was good opportunities, in my
2:21:12opinion, both sides.
2:21:14Um unfortunately, wasn't able to catch
2:21:17both sides, just one side, but still
2:21:19grateful for that, and that's what
2:21:21happens when you follow your system and
2:21:22take trades based off your playbooks.
2:21:24So, I'm going to end it.
2:21:26Simple playbook. Uh and I'll post a
2:21:28review later in the Discord. Peace out,
2:21:31everybody.
2:21:32Look at this move. Just keeps dumping.
2:21:37Think a good point to mention here is
2:21:38that you cannot look at where the
2:21:40market's gone after you've exited the
2:21:43trade, right? You have to look at did
2:21:45you follow your plan? What happens after
2:21:47your plan is fulfilled is a new trade
2:21:50idea. It's a new thesis. It doesn't fit
2:21:51that trade thesis that you entered off
2:21:53of. For example, yeah, it sucks seeing
2:21:55the market drop another 30 points from
2:21:57my entry here. Yeah, I could have made
2:21:59so much more money. But, my plan wasn't
2:22:01for this bigger move. My plan was for
2:22:02just a quick little sell-off down.
2:22:05Right? So, where a lot of traders,
2:22:07including myself, get stuck up on is
2:22:09that they see the move after they've
2:22:11exited the trade and they think, "Hey, I
2:22:13should still be in this." Or, "Hey, I
2:22:15could have made X amount of dollars
2:22:16more." While, yes, that is natural and
2:22:18true and valid, you have to look at it
2:22:20as, "Hey, was there an opportunity after
2:22:23my original thesis played out to
2:22:25possibly re-enter to then capitalize on
2:22:27this move." Right? Have to look at it as
2:22:29a new trade idea versus a trade idea
2:22:32uh that is continuing from your thesis
2:22:34that already validated and played out.
2:22:37Uh that's just the way that I look at
2:22:38it.
2:22:39So, market's going to open here in about
2:22:403 minutes.
2:22:41Um
2:22:43Did you all see my pre-market plan video
2:22:45I posted in the Discord?
2:22:48My main level for today is going to be
2:22:506716 level.
2:22:53Um for me, if the market does not even
2:22:55attempt to go for it and we straight off
2:22:59the bat break under yesterday's low,
2:23:02break under these pre-market lows, that
2:23:05in itself for me is going to be another
2:23:07indication of of weakness
2:23:10and likely to go fill out the 6677 level
2:23:13of demand. Now, I don't know how that's
2:23:14going to play out, if it's going to play
2:23:16out. But, a sign of of weakness for me
2:23:18is if the market does not even attempt
2:23:20to go for that 6716 level.
2:23:23And maybe right off the bat we see a
2:23:25strong sell-off under these pre-market
2:23:27lows, the 6697s, the 6690s.
2:23:30Uh that in itself is a sign of weakness
2:23:33where I would then look for shorts
2:23:34targeting the 6677s
2:23:37all the way down to Friday's low around
2:23:39the 6657s. So, larger level, larger
2:23:42range, going to be key support here as
2:23:45well.
2:23:46And then the upside bullish plan is if
2:23:47the market does rally and break above
2:23:49the 6716s,
2:23:51um obviously looking to long that to
2:23:54target the 66 or 6731s
2:23:57where the market put in a higher lower
2:24:00high at yesterday. So,
2:24:04remember always just our job is to not
2:24:06predict where the market's going to go.
2:24:08The way I look at the market is number
2:24:10one, have the levels of interest, and
2:24:12number two, once the levels of interest
2:24:14um
2:24:16are traded at, gauge how the market's
2:24:18reacting at them, gauge what the market
2:24:21uh or gauge the volume around it. Are
2:24:23buyers aggressively entering? Are buyers
2:24:26not aggressively entering? Are sellers
2:24:27trapped? Are sellers just drilling into
2:24:31the bid?
2:24:32Right? So, have levels of interest,
2:24:34doesn't matter how you draw the levels
2:24:35of interest, and then get confirmation
2:24:37at the levels of interest. And again, it
2:24:39doesn't matter how you get the
2:24:40confirmations there. So, no matter what,
2:24:43just have a plan, follow that plan, and
2:24:44and manage your risk uh
2:24:47accordingly. So, market's going to open
2:24:49here in 10 seconds.
2:24:50Uh I always reset my depth of market, if
2:24:52anybody uses a depth of market, directly
2:24:54at the 9:30 open. I reset it.
2:25:00And good luck.
2:25:02Let's see what the market does. Pretty
2:25:04strong buying directly at the bell.
2:25:06Valid zero print sitting at the 6707 and
2:25:09a halfs.
2:25:10Zero print did form at the and now
2:25:12filled. 07 and a halfs.
2:25:17So, really gauging price action. 6706s
2:25:20my level, and then to the downside, the
2:25:226697s to 91s.
2:25:25So, till that trades,
2:25:27everything is going to be a little bit
2:25:28more noisy to me. Another thing that I
2:25:30do want to say is looking back at my
2:25:32data since I was not around to trade
2:25:34yesterday, I spent some time when I got
2:25:36to my computer to kind of review a lot
2:25:38of my setups recently. I cannot tell you
2:25:41all
2:25:42the amount of the the good setups that I
2:25:44take are so crystal clear in terms of my
2:25:48playbooks, in terms of my setups. And
2:25:51majority, I would say 80% of the losing
2:25:53trades that I take,
2:25:55I can't tell you why I took that setup
2:25:58looking back at it, reviewing it. And
2:25:59that goes to show you that if we are
2:26:01forced to take setups that are
2:26:03repeatable, that are based off the
2:26:05patterns in our playbooks, we
2:26:07automatically put ourselves in the
2:26:08position to take great setups where the
2:26:11odds are in our favor for that trade to
2:26:12work out. And the trades that we enter
2:26:14based on what we think is going to
2:26:15happen, or based on what we want to see
2:26:18occur, are the setups that are going to
2:26:20lose or have a higher probability of
2:26:22losing before entering. And I think
2:26:23that's crucial and very important.
2:26:29In one of the academy webinars, I want
2:26:31to say 2 weeks ago, I talked about and I
2:26:33gave them all homework in the academy
2:26:34saying, "Review your data, review your
2:26:37entries, replay the trades, and see if
2:26:39you could find common similarities." And
2:26:42by me practicing that exercise
2:26:43yesterday,
2:26:45and I'm I'm I'm big into this,
2:26:48you'll be able to spot the dumb
2:26:51decisions you make, and you'll be able
2:26:52to spot the losing trades and find
2:26:54common similarities. A lot of my losing
2:26:56trades, and these are probably the most
2:26:58frustrating trades, are the ones where
2:27:00you cannot even explain why you're
2:27:02taking that setup. It doesn't fit any of
2:27:05your criteria other than what we
2:27:07perceive the market to do based on what
2:27:10we want to see.
2:27:13It's so crucial.
2:27:19Also, a question. Do you guys like the
2:27:21pre-market plan videos that I post? Are
2:27:24they helpful? Do you guys go through
2:27:25them?
2:27:26Or would you rather just a text plan?
2:27:35Another thing is that at 9:45 we have
2:27:38PMI data and at 10:00 a.m. we have
2:27:40consumer confidence. So, it's the last
2:27:41day of the quarter and the last day of
2:27:43the month.
2:27:44So,
2:27:46prior or
2:27:47post this data,
2:27:49post coming into end of day,
2:27:51I would be a little surprised to see
2:27:52kind of a lackluster session. I would be
2:27:55not surprised to see a little bit of a
2:27:58volatile one post 10:00 a.m. data.
2:28:02Uh and again going into the close
2:28:03because last day of the quarter
2:28:05and uh
2:28:08last day of the month as well. And
2:28:10September's statistically usually a a
2:28:12more of a red month.
2:28:14>> [snorts]
2:28:23>> So, I just posted an intraday
2:28:25commentary. I mean, it's kind of the
2:28:26same thing that I've been saying on
2:28:27voice.
2:28:29Uh with the intraday price action so
2:28:31far, it's definitely leaning more
2:28:32towards the the the bear side.
2:28:35Um but to make any type of analysis, I
2:28:39would need to see what the market does
2:28:40under these 6697s,
2:28:436691s.
2:28:46So, definitely leaning more towards the
2:28:48bear side with this intraday price
2:28:49action.
2:28:51But, too early to say anything until the
2:28:546697s, 91s do break. Now, in previous
2:28:58market conditions, and I haven't done
2:29:00this recently just because I feel like
2:29:03I it's not something that I've noticed a
2:29:05a repeatable pattern around, but in
2:29:07recent market conditions, what I would
2:29:08normally do is
2:29:10let's say we had a key level below
2:29:11price, right? Let's just say we're
2:29:13looking to short. We have a line of
2:29:14least resistance, meaning if 6696 does
2:29:17break, that's going to lead to a
2:29:1920-point sell-off into the level of
2:29:20demand on the price, right? Let's just
2:29:22say that
2:29:24that is what's going to happen. Just
2:29:25throwing out a scenario there.
2:29:27In different market conditions, what I
2:29:29would normally do is say, "All right.
2:29:31I know if 6697 could break,
2:29:34it's going to lead to further sell-off.
2:29:36So, what I would like to do is get short
2:29:37before that level breaks if the selling
2:29:40is there. Meaning, let's just say we
2:29:41short this pop here 6703.
2:29:44I'm getting in before the move cuz I'm
2:29:46seeing selling before the move. And I
2:29:48know if that selling continues here and
2:29:49I'm short 6703, if it does go break that
2:29:526697 level, number one, I'm in before
2:29:54the move. Number two, my risk reward is
2:29:57going to be much better. And number
2:29:58three, if the move does start to
2:29:59amplify, I'm in way above price where
2:30:03it's just going to validate our original
2:30:05thesis under the 6697s.
2:30:08Uh giving us more of a reward and better
2:30:11confirmation to get in at a higher
2:30:13price. Um
2:30:14I've used I used to do that so many
2:30:16times in different market conditions.
2:30:19But I feel like in these conditions,
2:30:20it's really just being patient for your
2:30:22levels to hit and uh gauging what the
2:30:25market does at them.
2:30:27Nasdaq hitting yesterday's high,
2:30:30filling the gap
2:30:33on uh QQQ.
2:30:38Almost there.
2:30:40Let's see what those equities I posted
2:30:41in the pre-market plan are doing.
2:30:42Nvidia, not much.
2:30:45Apple, not much, still in the middle of
2:30:46the range.
2:30:48This S&P, I mean, on on a 1-minute
2:30:50chart,
2:30:52I mean, on the tape, it looks like every
2:30:53pop from 9:36 on has been shorted into.
2:30:56So, maybe somebody's building into a
2:30:57downside position.
2:30:59Maybe somebody's looking to reload on
2:31:01these pops, but it seems like around
2:31:02this 6703, 6702 level. Looking at the
2:31:06heat map specifically and even the
2:31:07footprint, looks like somebody's
2:31:09shorting these pops pretty aggressively.
2:31:126703, 6704.
2:31:16We got data coming out in 5 minutes, so
2:31:18expect a little bit of a volatile
2:31:19reaction around this 9:45 mark.
2:31:23And then another initial reaction at
2:31:2510:00 a.m.
2:31:29And here's another pop, but just I don't
2:31:30know, to me it looks like somebody
2:31:33is
2:31:35Let's see if this fails. Uh just seem
2:31:37seems to me like somebody is maybe
2:31:39selling these pops. 6703, 6704, 6705.
2:31:45I'll post the screenshot in the intraday
2:31:46commentary.
2:31:51Just posted an intraday commentary, uh
2:31:53basically what I'm explaining.
2:31:55Nothing to act upon. I'm just noting
2:31:58that
2:31:59every single time the market has tried
2:32:00to move up, it's been
2:32:02whacked by a seller.
2:32:05Nothing aggressive, nothing major,
2:32:07nothing significant. It's just
2:32:09what the only event we've seen so far
2:32:11since the market's been open.
2:32:14Now, if this develops and you know,
2:32:15breaks that 6797,
2:32:1791 level, then you know, that will
2:32:20provide a a piece of context and a clue
2:32:22if that does come into fruition. If it
2:32:24doesn't, then it's you know, nothing
2:32:25nothing relevant for me in my analysis.
2:32:31Zero print at the 6706 and a half? No,
2:32:33there is not. I don't see one.
2:32:36No valid zero print so far.
2:32:38There was one earlier, but it failed.
2:32:42Yes, I mean, look at this. Another pop
2:32:44that is kind of
2:32:45attempting to fail here.
2:32:47And then on the footprint as well, I'm
2:32:49going to post the screenshot of this.
2:32:53Every single time that the market goes
2:32:55for a high on the footprint,
2:32:58um news coming out in a minute.
2:33:01If anybody is in a position,
2:33:03I know it's not major high-impact news,
2:33:05but it's probably going to lead to a
2:33:06volatile reaction.
2:33:09Um
2:33:10if anybody's ever in a position as we
2:33:12get closer to major data,
2:33:14just be cautious with it. You know, it's
2:33:16a gamble holding at the data if the
2:33:17market's close to your entry.
2:33:20For example, if I'm long, let's just say
2:33:226703,
2:33:246704, and I know 20 seconds before news
2:33:27or data, we're trading at the 05s, 06s,
2:33:29and I'm only in two, three points of
2:33:30profit,
2:33:32I don't know, most of the time I'm
2:33:33dumping that trade and not holding into
2:33:34data because I find it to be a gamble.
2:33:36The market could aggressively sell off,
2:33:38negatively react to the data, and just
2:33:40screw our position, you know? So, if
2:33:42anybody is in a position prior to data,
2:33:44just understand that if your risk is
2:33:46accepted and the market is kind of far
2:33:49away from your entry, then holding into
2:33:51it is
2:33:52a little more of a
2:33:54I don't want to say gamble, but it's a
2:33:56little bit more of a protective,
2:33:58higher probability gamble.
2:34:01But if we're close to entry,
2:34:03you know, it's it's
2:34:06it's a little more of a higher risk
2:34:08gamble,
2:34:09I guess you could say.
2:34:11>> [sighs]
2:34:13>> The major economic data is going to be
2:34:15uh 10:00 a.m. consumer confidence.
2:34:17>> [sighs]
2:34:20>> Nasdaq hit yesterday's high and has
2:34:21bounced off it perfectly.
2:34:24Nasdaq hit yesterday's high, uh actually
2:34:27no, I missed it by like three points.
2:34:30Nasdaq yesterday high, 24737.
2:34:34I'm sorry, not yesterday's high.
2:34:37Thur- uh Friday's high, I'm sorry.
2:34:40Friday's high actually is
2:34:4244s, 24744, which we did hit
2:34:46perfectly right now. So, Nasdaq is
2:34:48finding a bid above yesterday's high or
2:34:51Friday's high,
2:34:5324744.
2:34:58After reviewing a lot of my data, one
2:35:01thing that I have in my mind that I
2:35:02really want to start implementing more
2:35:04is that
2:35:05just cutting out BS trades and cutting
2:35:08out
2:35:10lower probability setups based on where
2:35:13my experience thinks
2:35:15the the going to head, based on
2:35:18where I want to see the market go.
2:35:20You know, the way I look at it is that
2:35:22for me it's better, right? You're going
2:35:24to see me be very picky with setups
2:35:26moving forward. I really am going to try
2:35:28to hone in on this and be very strict
2:35:30with it.
2:35:32Um and not only, you know, benefit my
2:35:35trading, but also show you all
2:35:39the benefits of being very selective and
2:35:41picky with your setups and how well it
2:35:42will do.
2:35:44The way I look at this, and this is kind
2:35:45of what's justifying it, is that
2:35:48if I take, let's just say one setup
2:35:50during the whole week, which is probably
2:35:52not going to be the case. I'm just
2:35:54throwing something out there, right? And
2:35:56that one setup gives me 20 points, 25
2:35:58points.
2:36:00For me, I'd rather take one setup than
2:36:02take 10 trades in a week and only come
2:36:05out with 20 points, right? Have a Have a
2:36:0715-point winner, another 10-point
2:36:09winner, have a 5-point loser, 6-point
2:36:12loser, 3-point loser.
2:36:1410-point winner, right? And then at the
2:36:16end of the end of the week, you know,
2:36:17despite having 10 trades, it still comes
2:36:19out to 20 points, 25 points. For me, I'd
2:36:22rather take one 20-point winner than
2:36:24take take 10 trades that, you know,
2:36:28at the end of the week come out to a net
2:36:2920 points. And by doing so and by being
2:36:32more selective
2:36:35and not trading what you want to act
2:36:37upon, it'll help with that. And that's
2:36:38something that I really want to work on
2:36:40moving forward and cleaning up my losses
2:36:42essentially. I want to clean up the
2:36:44losses that are not good in my trading.
2:36:53Okay, so pretty nasty rejection here.
2:37:05Pretty nasty 5-minute rejection.
2:37:08It's still going with the thesis that
2:37:10every single time the market tries to
2:37:12move up, it it fails.
2:37:14You know, it's it's still occurring.
2:37:16That previous rally was a little higher,
2:37:19but it's still going with the thesis of
2:37:21you know, somebody could be actively
2:37:22selling all these pops. It's kind of
2:37:24just how I'm viewing it and reading it
2:37:26at this moment.
2:37:3110 minutes until consumer confidence.
2:37:43I mean, this the selling is definitely
2:37:45coming in pretty aggressively here.
2:37:47You can see it building. You can see the
2:37:49tape speeding up.
2:37:50You can see a lot of trades hitting the
2:37:51bid.
2:37:52You can see a lot of red.
2:37:56Uh remember what I said in my pre-market
2:37:58plan. If
2:37:59a confirmation or piece of context for
2:38:02me in itself is a lack of an attempt to
2:38:04go test the 6716s.
2:38:06And we've kind of seen the lack of the
2:38:08attempt at it so far.
2:38:15And that wouldn't be a good sign if
2:38:16these buyers cannot go test
2:38:18these uh 6716s.
2:39:02I just posted a screenshot in intraday
2:39:03commentary.
2:39:04Um this to me is a chop zone. Right? So,
2:39:07where the market's hanging out
2:39:09under the 16s but above the 6697s,
2:39:13this to me is a chop zone. This to me is
2:39:15a level that
2:39:17I don't want to be trading in the middle
2:39:18of this, right? This is a forming a
2:39:21balance. This is forming picking up
2:39:23liquidity. This is forming let's pick up
2:39:25orders. This is forming
2:39:27not continuate not having continuation.
2:39:30This is forming
2:39:32stop hunts. This is forming
2:39:34just
2:39:36not ideal price action in the middle of
2:39:38range that I just highlighted here.
2:39:40So, until we can break under the 97s or
2:39:43above the 16s,
2:39:45that's really what I want to see and I
2:39:46want to hone in on that.
2:39:51That will [clears throat] be where the
2:39:52best opportunities are going to come
2:39:53from.
2:39:54In the middle of it, we're not going to
2:39:56go anywhere. You know, until we can
2:39:57break out of the extremes,
2:40:00the highs and the lows,
2:40:02you know, this move is just not going to
2:40:03go anywhere. So,
2:40:05under the 97s to 91s,
2:40:08giving it a little breathing room under
2:40:09the pre-market lows,
2:40:11and then above the 6716s, the large
2:40:13delta.
2:40:18Yeah, to me post 10:00 a.m. data,
2:40:20another failed attempt
2:40:22as a large sweep order just came in. I
2:40:24was just going to say another failed
2:40:25attempt at going for 67 16s post 10:00
2:40:29a.m. data is a sign of weakness for me
2:40:31and I'm going to be going with that
2:40:32ladder bearish scenario uh to target
2:40:356677 demand.
2:40:41If another failed attempt post 10:00
2:40:43a.m. data does not go for that level
2:40:45above
2:40:47and or another valley gets sold into.
2:40:52Selling is definitely building.
2:40:54>> [sighs and gasps]
2:40:57>> The one thing I am a little fearful of
2:40:58is that this may be a scenario where
2:41:0010:00 a.m. data comes in
2:41:02and this thing just continues to drop
2:41:03and leaves us, you know, behind.
2:41:07It's definitely one fear in my mind at
2:41:08this moment is that,
2:41:10you know, the selling is building. We
2:41:11have 10:00 a.m. data coming out in 4
2:41:13minutes.
2:41:15But, I mean, it's building prior to this
2:41:16data and maybe the data comes out and
2:41:18this thing just dumps and for those who
2:41:20did not enter,
2:41:22it's kind of going to leave us in the
2:41:23dust
2:41:25and leave us behind.
2:41:27It's definitely one fear in my mind.
2:41:35VWAP from FOMC level at September 17th
2:41:37has been providing support and
2:41:39resistance at multiple occasions since
2:41:41then. Could be more bullish bearish
2:41:42line.
2:41:45Seffy, Seff, if you could send a
2:41:47picture, that would be great. If you
2:41:48could send a screenshot.
2:41:53Okay, well, now here comes some buying
2:41:54coming in.
2:41:56This is directly at our 6697 level, as
2:41:59well.
2:42:032 minutes until consumer confidence.
2:42:07This is kind of why you do not want to
2:42:09trade in the middle of the range.
2:42:12I mean, even playing the lower portion
2:42:13of the range, right, 6697.
2:42:16All right, the market just bounced 10
2:42:17points off of that.
2:42:21But, playing in the middle of it
2:42:25is a little questionable.
2:42:29A minute until data.
2:42:33Nasdaq still holding the previous day
2:42:35high, 24744.
2:42:40>> [snorts]
2:42:40>> 20 seconds.
2:42:45Pretty interesting to see the book super
2:42:46thin on the bid side
2:42:49and super thick on the ask side. Super
2:42:51thick on the sell side,
2:42:53but super thin on the bid side. I mean,
2:42:55the current thickness, it just thickened
2:42:57out.
2:42:59A lot of the thickness on the on the
2:43:01sell side is like 60 contracts, 40
2:43:03contracts, but on the buy side it's like
2:43:0520 contracts. It's like half the
2:43:06thickness
2:43:08on the bid side.
2:43:12Yeah, the the offer side is definitely
2:43:14significantly thicker than the bid side.
2:43:24One thing I am noticing is we are
2:43:25rejecting on the heat map this large
2:43:27size of offers that kind of pulled as we
2:43:30got closer to news. So, I mean,
2:43:33let's see how how this reacts to 6710,
2:43:366712.
2:43:38This could be another pull and slam
2:43:39scenario. Um
2:43:42we did pull from the 10:00 a.m. data of
2:43:45these offers here at 6710, 6711.
2:43:51Just got alerted on Nvidia. Let's see
2:43:53what Nvidia is doing.
2:43:59Nvidia is starting to break out.
2:44:03Nvidia is breaking out above that 184
2:44:05level that I talked about in the
2:44:06pre-market plan.
2:44:09A lot of buying volume coming in here on
2:44:11ES, and it's kind of just stalled and
2:44:13out.
2:44:19Nvidia breaking out. Look at this
2:44:20Nvidia.
2:44:23I'm going to be keeping an eye on this
2:44:24to support the overall market.
2:44:30Did Nasdaq get above VWAP?
2:44:32Nasdaq did get above VWAP.
2:44:40All right, looks like the S&P is in
2:44:41route to the 6716 level.
2:44:46Large offers just appeared here on ES.
2:45:00>> Trying to get filled at the 09's short.
2:45:03Did not get filled.
2:45:06There's a P-shape forming here. There's
2:45:08a pull and slam offer filling
2:45:10at these 10's and 12's.
2:45:13I tried to get filled short at the 09's,
2:45:14just unsuccessful.
2:45:17Now we're moving back under the open
2:45:18price. If we have success back under
2:45:21these
2:45:22uh 07's, 06's, this is going to most
2:45:25likely turn into a revisit of the 6697
2:45:27level.
2:45:29If we can break under these 06's, 05's.
2:45:33I'm sorry, 06's, 07's.
2:45:36There's a P-shape at the high. There's a
2:45:37lot of trapped buyers at the high. The
2:45:39bidding was significantly thinner prior
2:45:42to this 10:00 a.m. data. To me, this is
2:45:44a
2:45:45something that I'm looking to uh
2:45:48play to the downside here.
2:45:51Nvidia is breaking out above a very
2:45:53clear resistance level, which if that
2:45:55fails, it's going to support this
2:45:56bearish thesis as well. As you was, I
2:45:58can't short these 04's now. I had an
2:46:01order at the 09's that just did not
2:46:02fill.
2:46:06Here it comes.
2:46:12Man, the selling is super heavy.
2:46:18Would've been sitting nice if I was
2:46:20short at the 09's.
2:46:24I put a limit order out there, just did
2:46:25not fill.
2:46:33There's a perfect P-shape at the high.
2:46:39And there there's a pull and slam there
2:46:41as well. I would consider that a pull
2:46:43and slam.
2:46:46Not the prettiest pull and slam.
2:46:57Let's see if we if we reject these 06s
2:46:5907s on this pop right here.
2:47:02If we come into these 06s 07s and
2:47:04rejects,
2:47:07um
2:47:09I don't mind an entry up here if it
2:47:11rejects these 06s 07s.
2:47:13Targeting the 96 low day.
2:47:28Just give me a little more of a lift. I
2:47:30would love to short into a little more
2:47:31of a lift.
2:47:33You know, getting short here at these
2:47:3403s 04s is fine, but my stop would have
2:47:36to be at the 08s
2:47:3909s.
2:47:42And that's like five points of risk for
2:47:43a
2:47:44>> [sighs]
2:47:46>> eight-point reward.
2:47:51To me, this is confirmed weakness. To
2:47:53me, this is strong selling. To me, this
2:47:55is a revisit of the 97s level {slash}
2:47:58pre-market lows.
2:48:00Uh it's just if you haven't got an entry
2:48:02short, it's hard to chase it down here
2:48:03at the lows. If anybody isn't short,
2:48:05this looks very very nice.
2:48:10For anybody that is in short, this looks
2:48:12very nice for a low of day break.
2:48:24Really, what's in my head right now is
2:48:26watching
2:48:27and this kind of goes against what I
2:48:28said earlier about not trading in the
2:48:30middle of this range.
2:48:32But just looking at the most recent
2:48:33price action, that rejection at the
2:48:35highs was a very strong and aggressive
2:48:37one.
2:48:38So, I mean, if we come back into today's
2:48:40open, which is sitting at the 6706's.
2:48:44And it fails, it would just show that
2:48:46the sellers at the high are also selling
2:48:49and continuously putting pressure on all
2:48:52the pops up higher. So, ideally, I would
2:48:55like to see a pop up into the 6706's
2:48:57that fails to short into.
2:48:59I think a lack of that for me is going
2:49:01to be a little difficult to enter here
2:49:03in terms of risk to reward. Because if
2:49:05we come into the 6706's and it fails,
2:49:10um I would then look to put my stop
2:49:11above the 08's 09's. So, that would give
2:49:14me three four points of risk. And then I
2:49:16would then conservatively look to target
2:49:18the lower day,
2:49:19which would be 10 points away.
2:49:22So, it would give me like a three R
2:49:24plus. And that's conservatively.
2:49:28Big if statement, you know, with the big
2:49:29if is that if if we pop into it, it
2:49:32needs to reject.
2:49:35That's just kind of what's in my head at
2:49:36this moment.
2:49:38And this would kind of be applying my
2:49:40OHLC rule.
2:49:44So, here's the 06's now. 06's did trade.
2:49:4806's did trigger.
2:49:52Another thing as well as if the market
2:49:53does bid back above the 06's and 07's,
2:49:57this would invalidate that thesis that I
2:49:59just mentioned.
2:50:00Completely would invalidate it.
2:50:07Which now looks to be the case.
2:50:10I'm filled at the 06's now. I have not
2:50:12taken an entry yet.
2:50:13Watching, but I have not entered.
2:50:16To me now, this is not looking bearish.
2:50:19You know, if the sellers at the high of
2:50:20day,
2:50:21which rejected the market significantly,
2:50:23and this is this also validates why it's
2:50:25not appropriate to chase, right? Even
2:50:28though I was getting great confirmation
2:50:29down there, this is why it is not
2:50:31appropriate to chase the market at all,
2:50:33and this is why I'm against it
2:50:35completely. Is that if I did chase the
2:50:37market because I wanted to enter this,
2:50:39even though getting great confirmation,
2:50:41it didn't make sense in terms of RR, it
2:50:43does not make sense to take the trade,
2:50:45right? If I was short at the 03s, 04s,
2:50:49my risk was too high, and I'm
2:50:50essentially shorting into the low,
2:50:53where my reward was not fitting my risk.
2:50:56So, just because the RR
2:50:58did not make sense, it made me void or
2:51:01avoid the earlier short.
2:51:03And now as we pop, it's coming back up.
2:51:07Where we saw the sellers earlier at the
2:51:09high of day, we're now revisiting this,
2:51:11kind of invalidating that those sellers
2:51:13are also strong.
2:51:15Because if they were strong, we wouldn't
2:51:16have a revisit of this level.
2:51:20And also going back to my most original
2:51:22point where I posted in the intraday
2:51:23commentary,
2:51:25it
2:51:26initiating a trade in this range is is
2:51:29always going to be a lower probability
2:51:31in the middle of the range.
2:51:33Could we take something? Absolutely. But
2:51:35is it always going to be lower
2:51:36probability until it moves outside? Yes.
2:51:40That range that I highlighted in the
2:51:41pre-market plan.
2:51:42I mean, not in the in the intraday
2:51:43commentary.
2:51:45So, that's a great example of me not
2:51:47entering, despite getting good
2:51:49confirmation, me not entering because of
2:51:51my risk to reward. And imagine then I
2:51:54chased the market because I wanted to
2:51:55get in just because the confirmation
2:51:57made sense,
2:51:58and I voided and and did not put any
2:52:02influence on my risk to reward,
2:52:05I would be screwed right now. And that's
2:52:07why you always got to think about your
2:52:08RR before entering, even if your
2:52:10confirmation is great, right? Because if
2:52:12I was short at the 09s,
2:52:15I would have been fine. I would, you
2:52:16know, I'm I'm break even right now.
2:52:18Maybe I would have gotten out at break
2:52:20even. Maybe I still would be in the
2:52:21trade. But if I shorted at the 03s, I'd
2:52:23be significantly under water.
2:52:26And that's why always put an influence
2:52:29on your risk to reward first.
2:52:33Because at 1 minute I was watching to
2:52:35take the market short.
2:52:38And after a no fill, I wasn't
2:52:39comfortable chasing the market. And
2:52:41that's a very important lesson for
2:52:42anybody that does look to chase.
2:52:45It is not good to chase.
2:52:51I hate to say it now, but
2:52:53when in doubt, zoom out.
2:52:56Right? When in doubt, zoom out. Zooming
2:52:58out, I'm going to post another
2:52:59screenshot of this
2:53:01in intraday commentary.
2:53:06When in doubt, zoom out. We're in the
2:53:07middle of this range.
2:53:12Look what I just posted in intraday
2:53:13commentary.
2:53:15When in doubt, zoom out, right? Zooming
2:53:17out, we could get so caught up in these
2:53:19fluctuations, but zooming out, we're
2:53:21still in the middle of this range.
2:53:23Now,
2:53:24there will be a point where we break out
2:53:26of this range today. I would
2:53:28I would be very surprised to see the
2:53:30market hang out in the middle of this
2:53:32range that I just posted here. I would
2:53:33be very, very surprised. So, there will
2:53:36be a point that the market does break
2:53:37out of it.
2:53:39The question that we don't need to
2:53:40answer is when, where, and why.
2:53:44Right? We don't know when it's going to
2:53:45happen. We don't know where it's going
2:53:46to happen, up or down. And we don't know
2:53:48what's going to be the cause of it, of
2:53:50the why. We don't know if buyers are
2:53:52going to step in. We don't know if
2:53:52sellers are going to step in. Right?
2:53:54Could we get in early? Absolutely.
2:53:56Right? If I was short earlier at 6709
2:53:58where I was,
2:53:59where I was trying to get short,
2:54:03part of that thesis was in speculation
2:54:05that if those sellers that I saw at
2:54:06those at those highs, if they were valid
2:54:09and they were strong, it would take the
2:54:10market out of that range, which is why
2:54:12my target, if I was in that trade, would
2:54:14have been under the range.
2:54:17So, there will be a point where we do
2:54:18break out of this range, right? Maybe
2:54:20you see confirmation to take the market
2:54:21long here. Sure, if it fits your setup,
2:54:24go for it. You know, maybe go target the
2:54:2516s instead.
2:54:28But, initiating something in the middle
2:54:30of the range at some point will work
2:54:32today.
2:54:33But, at any point in the first hour that
2:54:34we've seen so far did not work out.
2:54:38At some point it will break out, right?
2:54:40Like getting long here, we might look
2:54:41back at it later and say right now is a
2:54:43good point to get long. That we're
2:54:45eventually going to go break the 16s.
2:54:49There will be a point where in the
2:54:50middle of the range
2:54:52it's a good opportunity to get long or
2:54:53short that eventually takes us out of
2:54:55that range.
2:54:57That's a risk that needs to be accepted
2:54:59and that is a probability that needs to
2:55:02be determined before entering the setup,
2:55:04if that makes sense.
2:55:06Right? We're not going to stay in the
2:55:07range forever.
2:55:10Did that make sense? Like there will be
2:55:12a point and you're going to hear you
2:55:14say, "Oh, Carmine said not to trade in
2:55:15the middle of the range. Oh, Carmine
2:55:17just opened up a position in the middle
2:55:18of the range."
2:55:20There will be a point where the market
2:55:21does move out of this range that I just
2:55:23posted and I'm highlighting on my on on
2:55:25this on the charts.
2:55:28The question is when, where, and why?
2:55:31And it shouldn't be us up to us to
2:55:33determine that.
2:55:35Oh, I got to answer a phone call really
2:55:37quick. I mean, one sec. I'm going to go
2:55:38on mute.
2:55:44All right, I'm back. Yeah, like somebody
2:55:46just said, right? It's a good analogy.
2:55:47Even a broken clock is right twice a
2:55:49day. Exactly. So, there will be a point
2:55:51where
2:55:53at some point into day when the market
2:55:55does go eventually break down under the
2:55:57range or above the range, there will be
2:55:59a point where it initiates that. And
2:56:01while that could be an excellent
2:56:03opportunity to enter,
2:56:05out of the market being open for 55
2:56:07minutes so far,
2:56:09every opportunity so far has been
2:56:10short-lived
2:56:16in terms of moving us out of the range.
2:56:21That's a good analogy though. Even a
2:56:22clock is is wrong twice a day.
2:56:27It's so true.
2:56:38And that also goes to show you how
2:56:40dynamic the auction is as well.
2:56:43How
2:56:47you know
2:56:49one minute I was looking for a short at
2:56:51the 6709s.
2:56:53Market drops 10 points and all of a
2:56:55sudden I'm just completely voiding
2:56:57both the long and the short.
2:57:00And that goes to show you how dynamic
2:57:02the auction is.
2:57:03And why in my opinion it's so important
2:57:05to never be married to an idea or a bias
2:57:08that you have the ability and the
2:57:09capability to switch
2:57:11from let's trade this to no trade this
2:57:13or let's long this to let's short this
2:57:15in a matter of seconds when the market
2:57:17provides that opportunity to do so.
2:57:20This is mainly speaking for short-term
2:57:22trading. You know, if you're going for
2:57:24trend trading, it's a little different.
2:57:26But in terms of like short-term trading
2:57:27going for quick seven 10 points scalps
2:57:31I I think that's a vital attribute or I
2:57:34know that's a vital attribute.
2:57:38And regardless of if anybody's trend
2:57:40trading, scalping
2:57:42high frequency trading, there has to be
2:57:45a strong
2:57:48awareness of risk to reward.
2:57:53It is such a crucial aspect and I would
2:57:55I have a lot of confidence in saying
2:57:56this like just based on the interaction
2:57:58with a lot of members.
2:58:00It seems like 90% of the members in here
2:58:02properly manage their risk properly.
2:58:06Like for everybody that's in a losing
2:58:07streak and a rut, everybody that sends
2:58:09me their trades that they want me to
2:58:10look over
2:58:12I do see a lot of traders do manage
2:58:14their risk properly and I think that's
2:58:15that's one thing that if anybody can
2:58:18learn from this,
2:58:19that is the most important thing. And I
2:58:21I I got a lot of confidence in saying
2:58:23that I see a lot of members properly
2:58:25manage their risk, which is
2:58:28a very another another very important
2:58:30attribute.
2:58:31Is I don't really see a lot of traders
2:58:33have larger losses in here.
2:58:37Which is good. You know, that's that's a
2:58:39good positive first step.
2:58:45Trump is speaking at 11:00.
2:58:48What is he speaking on? Is it
2:58:50economic policy? Is it What is it about?
2:58:54If I was short there at the 09s like I
2:58:56was trying to,
2:58:58I most likely would have got out of that
2:59:00trade at break even.
2:59:02>> [clears throat]
2:59:08>> Nobody knows why he's speaking in the
2:59:09morning. He said he was going to send
2:59:10nuclear submarine to Russian waters.
2:59:12Interesting.
2:59:15Let me see. Are we sure he's 100%
2:59:17speaking?
2:59:22Tell you what, also look at the Nasdaq.
2:59:24That thing is just uh
2:59:26That's the definition of balance right
2:59:28there. Nasdaq chart.
2:59:34Tuesday.
2:59:37PMI,
2:59:39consumer confidence.
2:59:41Tomorrow we got ISM data.
2:59:47Next week there's really no news, which
2:59:48is good.
2:59:52Department of war. Okay. So, that could
2:59:54be a major market
2:59:56event, especially if it's on war.
3:00:06The easier setup, and this is kind of a
3:00:09prediction, this is not like valid trade
3:00:11off of,
3:00:12but just based on the structure in the
3:00:14market
3:00:15in my opinion the easier setup would be
3:00:17the upside move. I think the downside
3:00:19would the downside structure
3:00:22if this breaks under 6697
3:00:25is just not
3:00:26super clear to me as much as if this
3:00:29thing breaks out to the upside would be.
3:00:32But I don't know it's it could go either
3:00:34way.
3:00:36Nvidia is really now breaking out. That
3:00:39Nvidia chart
3:00:41so clean.
3:00:46Yeah, nothing yet, guys.
3:00:49>> [snorts]
3:00:49>> I got nothing that I'm comfortable
3:00:50putting risk risk behind.
3:00:53Um a thing that I talk about
3:00:56in the academy, I'm not sure how many
3:00:58people are in the academy and how many
3:01:00people are in the uh just Discord only
3:01:01here, but
3:01:03in the academy the and if you're in this
3:01:05you know exactly what I'm talking about,
3:01:06but there's a lesson in the course
3:01:07videos where I talk about
3:01:10imagine you have one bullet left in your
3:01:12in your sniper and you got to take the
3:01:14shot. Right? Are you making sure that
3:01:17everything's aligning for you to hit
3:01:18that shot? It's a clear shot.
3:01:21Right? If you got that one bullet left.
3:01:24And think about that in terms of the
3:01:25market meaning if you got one trade left
3:01:28are you making sure does everything
3:01:30align? Are you making sure your setup is
3:01:32there? Are you making sure is it clear?
3:01:35Is it part of your training? Is it part
3:01:36of your playbooks?
3:01:38Acting like you have one shot left and
3:01:40is that shot going to be worth your
3:01:41while?
3:01:43If it is it's trade you got to take. If
3:01:44it's like ah I don't know it's not super
3:01:46clear. I'm a little worried about this.
3:01:49I'm not a fan of the location of this.
3:01:52I'm not a fan of these things then it's
3:01:54a shot you shouldn't be taking. So act
3:01:56like you got one bullet left.
3:02:06So here we go. Now, breaking under
3:02:0966.97. This is going to be a crucial
3:02:11reaction.
3:02:20I just put a poll in intraday
3:02:22commentary. I'd like you all to vote in
3:02:23that, what you guys trade the most of.
3:02:26ES, spy, NQ, QQQ, or do you guys trade
3:02:29other equities like
3:02:30uh and options on Apple, Amazon, Nvidia,
3:02:32Tesla. What do you guys trade the most
3:02:34of? I'm just curious.
3:02:36Just put a poll in the uh intraday
3:02:38commentary.
3:02:41So, now we've just broken under
3:02:44the intraday low. We have yet to break
3:02:46under the pre-market low.
3:02:48Uh but, this is kind of now validating
3:02:50our bearish thesis.
3:02:52Uh it's important to see if the
3:02:53continuation is going to be here
3:02:55or if the market fails under this range.
3:02:57You know, it's It this is so far been a
3:03:00balanced day. So,
3:03:04now we're finally seeing that extension
3:03:06under these lows. It's It's crucial to
3:03:08see if this continues or this fails to
3:03:09continue.
3:03:15And this is kind of why I've extended my
3:03:17level down to 66.91.
3:03:20It's giving it a little breathing room
3:03:21under the pre-market low.
3:03:25All right. This is kind of why I've
3:03:27given it a little breathing room is
3:03:28because of the session so far been has
3:03:30been relatively balanced. And we want to
3:03:33question We want to We want to answer
3:03:34the question of is this a valid break
3:03:36under this range or is this a valid fake
3:03:38out?
3:03:43So, carefully watching price action
3:03:44here.
3:03:46The Nasdaq is definitely relatively
3:03:48stronger, nowhere near the intraday low.
3:03:52Holding above the pre-market low.
3:03:59Vix is really not supporting this
3:04:00downside move, either.
3:04:02We're kind of seeing a B shape down here
3:04:04on the footprint. Let's see if we move
3:04:06back into this range. If we start moving
3:04:07back into this intraday range, this
3:04:10could have this the potential of being a
3:04:12major fake out
3:04:14and then upside reversal.
3:04:16Let's watch a reclaim back above 6700
3:04:18here.
3:04:20Let's see if this can reclaim back above
3:04:226700.
3:04:30All right, if this can break and hold
3:04:32back above 6700, I really
3:04:35would indicate this is a failed
3:04:37breakdown under the pre-market lows.
3:04:42I do have a buy order ready to go.
3:04:45Just have not clicked the button yet. I
3:04:46want to see a a strong break above 6700.
3:04:56I just like how we broke and moved back
3:04:57into the range.
3:04:59I'm trying this at the 99s. I'm long at
3:05:02the 99s.
3:05:04My stop's going to be under the 96s
3:05:06and I'm going to be going for a 6710
3:05:096712 high of day first target and then
3:05:12I'll target the 16s above that.
3:05:16Uh I like this failed breakdown under
3:05:18the lows. I like the reclaim of this
3:05:20range.
3:05:21If the buying volume steps in,
3:05:24we also see a B shape at the lower day.
3:05:27The buying volume can step in here
3:05:30and really build. It'll put the pressure
3:05:32to everybody who is basically trapped in
3:05:34the middle of this range. So,
3:05:37this is going to be about a
3:05:39>> [sighs]
3:05:39>> four to four to one R
3:05:41with my entry down here at the 99s.
3:05:45And then if this can reclaim here above
3:05:476706,
3:05:49which is today's open,
3:05:51this is really going to validate this
3:05:52move and I would have a very
3:05:55uh strong confidence of us testing the
3:05:5816s level if this can reclaim the 06s.
3:06:0406s 07s
3:06:06All right, nice B shape at the lower
3:06:08day.
3:06:09Now, I feel very confident above 6706,
3:06:12which is today's open.
3:06:15If I could see 6706 bid,
3:06:17I would really really like this setup.
3:06:21A lot of trades are hitting the offer,
3:06:22which is something that we want to see.
3:06:25Vix did not really support that downside
3:06:27move either.
3:06:29And we have the relatively weaker name.
3:06:32Right? The relatively weaker name, which
3:06:34was Nasdaq below yesterday's lows.
3:06:37ES breaking the lows is the relatively
3:06:39stronger name. So, if it's the stronger
3:06:41index, it should hold the level of
3:06:43support. Here's the 06s. Here's these
3:06:4606s. It's going to be crucial to reclaim
3:06:48back above today's open print now.
3:06:506706
3:06:54ES the stronger name did find support
3:06:56right at yesterday's low.
3:06:59Need a reclaim above the 06s.
3:07:05Here we go. 06s strong reclaim above it.
3:07:08Here we go.
3:07:096710 6712 is my first target on this
3:07:13setup. 6710 to 6712 higher day is my
3:07:17first target on this setup. It's
3:07:19rejected this market once, twice, three,
3:07:21four times here. Here's the 6710s.
3:07:25First sign of weakness, I'm going to be
3:07:26looking to exit 75% of this trade. I'm
3:07:29going to hold some runners up into the
3:07:3016s. Larger offer is appearing here at
3:07:336710. 490 contracts.
3:07:38We have rejected this market multiple
3:07:40times, so 75% is going to be coming off
3:07:43here
3:07:44at these 6710s.
3:07:49On a strong break of this, 65 or 75% of
3:07:53it is coming off at the 60 710s.
3:07:58260 on the offer now. It's getting
3:07:59thinner. There's trades are hitting the
3:08:01offer so aggressively here.
3:08:04875 delta on the offer.
3:08:07I don't want to be playing games with
3:08:09this. So, strong pop, 75% is coming off
3:08:116710.
3:08:13Right, we've rejected this market
3:08:14multiple times here in today so far.
3:08:19Massive size hitting the offer at the
3:08:206710s. There was 600 contracts on the
3:08:23offer there. Now we have a positive
3:08:26delta of 881 there.
3:08:376709s.
3:08:40>> [clears throat]
3:08:43>> Right, multiple rejections here.
3:08:46So far in today at 6710.
3:08:50Multiple rejections.
3:09:00Usually this consolidation here is a
3:09:02good sign. If you look at every other
3:09:04time that we've rejected 6710 so far in
3:09:06today, it's kind of hit it, rejected
3:09:09immediately. Here we've hit it and kind
3:09:11of consolidating
3:09:13a little near it. So,
3:09:16to me this means that the market is
3:09:17trying to figure out and is potentially
3:09:19accepting these higher prices at these
3:09:21levels. Right, every single time we've
3:09:23come at the 6710, it's hit it and
3:09:26immediately rejected. Now we're hitting
3:09:28it and kind of consolidating and
3:09:30building value at these higher prices,
3:09:32which is a very good sign for bulls.
3:09:39Okay, 6706 here is
3:09:42the open price.
3:09:44Could start developing into
3:09:46if this supports the market,
3:09:50this could be the pullback that holds if
3:09:51the 6706's are are found as support.
3:10:00Really wouldn't want to see it start
3:10:02offering under it and significantly
3:10:04under it.
3:10:11Remember, somebody has been actively
3:10:13selling on the pops so far intraday.
3:10:17Which is why the first target was 6710
3:10:196712.
3:10:21Somebody has been actively selling every
3:10:23single rally and every single pop
3:10:25higher. If this can have success, it
3:10:27could really be the expansion that we're
3:10:29looking for for continuation. But until
3:10:31then, it's going to be difficult until
3:10:33we overturn the 6710's.
3:10:36There's been multiple tests and multiple
3:10:38rejections of this so far intraday.
3:10:43We are still holding the 6706's though,
3:10:47which is a very good sign for this
3:10:48pullback to hold. And we are
3:10:50consolidating near these highs, which
3:10:52again is also another good sign
3:10:55of the market accepting these higher
3:10:56prices.
3:11:01Here we go, 6710 again.
3:11:056710 is again.
3:11:0875% of this trade is off here, 6711.
3:11:15Really now just going for a higher day /
3:11:176716 final target on this.
3:11:21That's really the final target is a
3:11:22higher day,
3:11:246713 to 6716
3:11:27key level.
3:11:29Another rejection. Look at that. Look at
3:11:31that rejection of the 6710's and another
3:11:33thicker offer sitting there, 427
3:11:35contracts.
3:11:37411 contracts. 6710 and a quarter now.
3:11:42Nasdaq is above the higher day and it is
3:11:44holding above the higher day slash open
3:11:46print as well.
3:11:48You know, for this continuation to work
3:11:50up into 6716, we we need to see the
3:11:526710s continue to bid.
3:11:55Right?
3:11:56Not going to go straight up as much as I
3:11:58would love it to do. So, but I don't
3:12:00it's you know, you got to sit in
3:12:01pullbacks and gauge it. The market
3:12:03pulled back into today's open perfectly
3:12:05and held it as support.
3:12:07Market's not always going to move
3:12:08straight up into our target every single
3:12:10time.
3:12:12There is definitely significant order
3:12:13flow activity appearing here though at
3:12:156710.
3:12:18Even I'll go to a 1-minute chart now.
3:12:20It's just significantly
3:12:236710 is just multiple rejections.
3:12:28So, can't get too bullish or can't
3:12:30expect continuation until we bid that
3:12:32level. We have yet to bid that level.
3:12:40So, I mean, we already got 12 points on
3:12:42three points worth of risk.
3:12:44So, we already achieved the 4R. I mean,
3:12:46now really for this setup we're going
3:12:47for 17 points on on three points of
3:12:49risk. It's almost a 6 to 6 to 1R.
3:12:55If this thing does eventually hit the
3:12:5616s.
3:12:57>> [sighs]
3:13:01>> I'm only in 25% of this though.
3:13:09It could very well reject these 10s.
3:13:11It's let's not throw that out of the
3:13:12window. You know, let's not throw it out
3:13:14of the window cuz Carmine's in long that
3:13:17we might reject to these 6710s. It's
3:13:19it's a possibility. And like I said,
3:13:21until we bid the 6710s,
3:13:23that's honestly a likely scenario. We
3:13:26need to bid 6710.
3:13:30So, let's not throw it out of the window
3:13:31because
3:13:33uh
3:13:33Carmine was Carmine's long, right? You
3:13:35have to always remain objective.
3:13:38You always got to remain objective and
3:13:40if I was not long, yes, this is
3:13:41rejecting the 6710s very well.
3:13:44Absolutely.
3:13:47Look at this. Look at this activity
3:13:49here.
3:13:536710
3:13:58I would love to see a strong break up
3:14:00above it, but
3:14:03we'll see what happens.
3:14:06Nasdaq is holding today's open print
3:14:09perfectly.
3:14:11Yeah, look at that. It's holding the
3:14:12opening print very well. Here's the 11s.
3:14:15Let's go for a new high of day on ES
3:14:16here.
3:14:17This would be very nice if we could get
3:14:18a new high of day.
3:14:20Look to scale out another 10 above the
3:14:22high of day above the 13s and hold
3:14:2510 15 more percent into the 16s and
3:14:27that'll be it for this trade.
3:14:31Give us a new high of day.
3:14:36A lot of volume building here on the
3:14:37footprint. A lot of volume building here
3:14:39on the heat map.
3:14:43>> [clears throat]
3:14:46>> Uh listen, I I hate holding runners, I
3:14:47do.
3:14:53Come on, give me a new high of day.
3:14:55Give me a new high of day into the 16s.
3:15:00Vix just did not support that downside
3:15:02move at all. While the S&P was just
3:15:04selling off aggressively, Vix was
3:15:06holding Vwap perfectly. I have Vix
3:15:08inverse, so
3:15:09Vix was rejecting Vwap on a normal
3:15:12uh Vix perfectly, which just did not
3:15:14support that thesis at all.
3:15:16Here we go. Here's a new high of day
3:15:18here.
3:15:19First sign of weakness above these 13s
3:15:21into the 16s, I'm getting out of this
3:15:22trade.
3:15:24First sign of weakness above these 13s
3:15:26and 16s, I'm getting out of this trade.
3:15:29Probably should have looked to scale
3:15:30some out there on the high of day break,
3:15:32but I did not.
3:15:35You know, the market is still relatively
3:15:36balanced.
3:15:38So, this is going for a a target at the
3:15:4016s means we're going to move out of the
3:15:41balance.
3:15:43My confirmation of the low was we're
3:15:44going to stay in the balance.
3:15:48Ah, maybe I should have scaled out some
3:15:49more there at the high of day.
3:15:58I should have also realized that the 13s
3:16:00above this high of day is yesterday's
3:16:02close, yesterday's settlement.
3:16:08Should have definitely looked to scale
3:16:09more above that. But, I mean on the size
3:16:11that I'm in with my 25% an extra two
3:16:14points isn't is not that significant,
3:16:15you know.
3:16:20Is that is Is that exhaustion at the
3:16:22top? That is not exhaustion. Uh I mainly
3:16:24look for exhaustion where
3:16:26there's at least three plus ticks of
3:16:30no volume on one side of the market.
3:16:34All right, if we can get to see the 13s
3:16:35again, I'm going to scale out some more.
3:16:37And then hold very small size for the
3:16:3916s breakout.
3:16:43What's crazy is that like this is what I
3:16:44was talking about earlier is like the
3:16:46original plan is long and above the 16s.
3:16:49So, I mean if this thing does hit those
3:16:5016s, this can validate our original
3:16:52thesis. But, there was just an
3:16:54opportunity much lower to get long that
3:16:56I saw.
3:17:00There's 900 contracts sitting at 6715.
3:17:06900 contracts sitting 67 uh 6714 and
3:17:093/4.
3:17:11900 contracts sitting there.
3:17:14Let's see if we go after that.
3:17:19Is Trump speaking right now?
3:17:22Is that what's going down?
3:17:25Is Trump on the mic?
3:17:28Or no, not at all.
3:17:31He just said Carl is trading really
3:17:32good, he likes it.
3:17:34>> [laughter]
3:17:34>> That's pretty funny.
3:17:42How I determine exhaustion, and this
3:17:44might be different from anybody else you
3:17:45you learned it from, you know, on the
3:17:47internet than anybody else follows, but
3:17:49for me, how I classify exhaustion
3:17:52is if I'm if I see three ticks of price
3:17:55where at a higher low, there's no signs
3:17:58So, at the high, let's call it. If I see
3:18:00no trades on the bid
3:18:02for three ticks or more at a high, I
3:18:04consider that exhaustion.
3:18:06At a low, if I see three ticks or more
3:18:09of no volume on the offer side, that to
3:18:12me is exhaustion. That's how I classify
3:18:14it, which is probably different than a
3:18:16lot of traders classify it, but that's
3:18:18just what I look for.
3:18:20Is if I see three ticks of of no trades
3:18:24on the bid at a high,
3:18:26and three ticks of no trades on the
3:18:28offer at a low, to me that's exhaustion.
3:18:34We saw this last
3:18:41Friday. We saw this Friday after the
3:18:4310:00 a.m. data.
3:18:47Also, it cannot be done from data.
3:18:50It has to be done
3:18:52outside of data. We had data at 10:00
3:18:53a.m., and I think the exhaustion prints
3:18:55came in at like 10:20 or something like
3:18:57that.
3:18:58But if it gets done directly at 10:00
3:18:59from the data, I don't consider it
3:19:01exhaustion. I consider it a data-induced
3:19:04exhaustion, which for me is not
3:19:08part of something I look for.
3:19:11I don't look at I don't look at CBD or
3:19:13anything like that.
3:19:17For me, I mean, for you it could it
3:19:19could work out well. For me, I'm I don't
3:19:21really look at that often.
3:19:24You know, if you have a pattern behind
3:19:26it, sure.
3:19:27Nothing wrong with it.
3:19:29So, that 900 lots offered I was sitting
3:19:32at the 14s, he did pull. He is no longer
3:19:35there.
3:19:41He pulled at the 14s.
3:19:46There's no longer a 900 lot offer there.
3:19:52CVD divergence? Yeah, I don't really
3:19:54look at CVD.
3:19:56Not that I don't mind it, it's just that
3:19:58I don't really have a system or like a
3:20:00playbook or a pattern built off of it.
3:20:04If I did, not I would, you know, but I
3:20:06don't. And that's not anything wrong
3:20:08with it.
3:20:11This is why I keep holding runners, you
3:20:13know?
3:20:14I mean, an extra few points, it's going
3:20:16to pay a decent
3:20:17a good amount.
3:20:19But, I mean, I've already achieved a 4R
3:20:21and I'm these runners are trying to make
3:20:23me achieve a 6R.
3:20:24Is that getting greedy with it?
3:20:27Might be a little bit.
3:20:29You know, I've already achieved a 4R on
3:20:31this trade.
3:20:39Runners decrease your life expectancy.
3:20:42As in I really despise holding runners
3:20:44and I know a trader would disagree with
3:20:47that.
3:20:49But, I despise holding runners.
3:20:55If I'm achieving a 4R in 30 minutes
3:20:58time,
3:20:59you know, holding runners
3:21:01is it really something [clears throat] I
3:21:02should consider?
3:21:07All right, we move back under these 06s,
3:21:09I'll cut these runners.
3:21:12What's crazy is that if we cut if we
3:21:13move under the 06s and the runners are
3:21:16cut to 25% of trade,
3:21:18that's still going to be a 2R if I cut
3:21:20those runners. On the just the runners,
3:21:22that's not including the 4R on the 75%
3:21:24we already took off.
3:21:26Which is the beauty of having a good
3:21:27entry, you know, the creativity and the
3:21:30breathing room you're enabled in a trade
3:21:32if you have a great entry.
3:21:34You know, cutting the 25% of runners at
3:21:36a 2R
3:21:38is still a good payday on just the
3:21:40runners.
3:21:44Let's see. Let's see if these runners
3:21:45are going to pay.
3:21:55Yeah, the entry was simple. The entry
3:21:57was the market was extremely balanced in
3:21:59the first hour.
3:22:01Right, we were going to test
3:22:03the 6697 level, which was our pre-market
3:22:07level of interest, 6697.
3:22:10We broke under the 6697s,
3:22:12and while we broke it, the Nasdaq, which
3:22:15was the weaker index, was holding its
3:22:17low. It was putting in higher lows.
3:22:19On top of this, the Vix,
3:22:22which I don't use often, but I have it
3:22:24on my charts, was rejecting VWAP,
3:22:27which supports that it's not supporting
3:22:29the S&P from selling off.
3:22:31On top of this, at 10:30, we broke under
3:22:33the balance range low and the pre-market
3:22:36low and failed to build volume under
3:22:39these pre-market lows here and these
3:22:41intraday lows.
3:22:42On top of that, as the market was
3:22:44breaking the low
3:22:46around 10:40 Eastern time,
3:22:51as we broke the intraday low,
3:22:53on the footprint, there was a B shape.
3:22:57And on the uh heat map, there was a
3:23:01rounding pattern where we rallied up,
3:23:04pulled back, and held this drop base
3:23:07rally structure.
3:23:08So, there was just multiple signs of
3:23:10confluence indicating that this was a
3:23:11potential fake break down.
3:23:16I may cut these runners here now.
3:23:19Let's see how we reject or resist this
3:23:22uh 6706 level.
3:23:25It's at VWAP also.
3:23:27It's in the middle of the range.
3:23:30You know, I highly doubt we're going to
3:23:33stay in this range today. I would I
3:23:35would have a lot of confidence that
3:23:36either we're going to break out and hit
3:23:37the 16s or we're going to sell off and
3:23:39break the intraday low.
3:23:41You know, I don't think we're going to
3:23:42stay in this range today. It's just
3:23:45not something that I would I would say
3:23:46is likely.
3:23:49My entry was at the 99s.
3:23:55Yeah, I longed the pullback
3:23:58when the market put in this bottoming
3:24:00pattern
3:24:01uh at these lows. It basically had this
3:24:03bottoming pattern. We had strong
3:24:05aggressive buying coming in.
3:24:07And uh I wanted to see a break above the
3:24:086700s as soon as the buying volume
3:24:11stepped in.
3:24:12Uh I longed to the 6699s.
3:24:16All right, now this thing's selling off.
3:24:20I'm uh
3:24:23I just dumped this trade here.
3:24:28I just dumped the runners all out of
3:24:30this trade. Solid setup.
3:24:34Yeah, I got no business holding these
3:24:35runners anymore.
3:24:36It's breaking under the opening print.
3:24:39This is really I I know traders are
3:24:41going to disagree with this, but it's
3:24:42based off my data and my analysis.
3:24:45Stop holding runners. You know, runners
3:24:47for me, if I'm achieving a 4R in 10
3:24:49minutes,
3:24:50I was risking three points and I made
3:24:53a little over 12 points on this trade.
3:24:55In in 10 minutes time, 15 minutes time,
3:24:58holding runners for a 6 plus R is just
3:25:02based on my data, it doesn't it doesn't
3:25:04give me that extra advantage.
3:25:06But, excellent setup. mean, long at the
3:25:0999's and taking profits at the 11's
3:25:12on three points of risk.
3:25:16So,
3:25:18all right. I think that is going to be
3:25:19it for me today.
3:25:21I'm going to do a one and done. It's
3:25:22already now approaching close to 11:30.
3:25:25Uh and we're in the middle of this
3:25:26range.
3:25:27Uh does anybody have any questions
3:25:28before I hop off here?
3:25:31Does anybody have any questions before I
3:25:32hop off here? I'm new here.
3:25:35When you enter I couldn't tell when you
3:25:36entered the trade. Uh I entered when the
3:25:38market failed to break down under the
3:25:40balance range. So, it failed to break
3:25:43under today's low.
3:25:44It reclaimed today's low and held
3:25:46today's low as support pretty well. This
3:25:48was around 10:41
3:25:50to about 10:44 Eastern time that we
3:25:53transacted that way where we had broken
3:25:55under today's intraday low,
3:25:58reclaimed back into the range, and while
3:26:01we were reclaiming back into the range,
3:26:02there was a B shape on the footprint.
3:26:04There was the pullback holding, and
3:26:07there was large aggressive buying volume
3:26:08stepping in. And those were my
3:26:10confirmation points along with the Vix
3:26:13not supporting the downside move.
3:26:15And I was targeting 6710 to 6712
3:26:19because 6710 to 6712 was where the
3:26:22market had rejected
3:26:24I don't know, like six or seven
3:26:25different times intraday.
3:26:28Now, in hindsight, we could have applied
3:26:30the same exact thing right here.
3:26:32Right? In hindsight, the market broke
3:26:33above the high of day and failed.
3:26:36So, in hindsight, we could have said,
3:26:37"Let's short the high of day." And where
3:26:38I put my target could have been a good
3:26:40initiation for a downside move.
3:26:44I will post a replay. I'll post a
3:26:45recording of this for anybody that
3:26:47wasn't on the live stream, and I'll post
3:26:49a recording of this so you could see my
3:26:51screens,
3:26:52and
3:26:53uh
3:26:54you'll have the replay to go back and
3:26:56see, all right, what exactly was I
3:26:57watching at this moment?
3:27:00You'll see exactly where and why and
3:27:01when I entered. I'll post it a little
3:27:03later on. Now, moving forward, what I
3:27:06would leave you all off with and if I
3:27:07was still trading this
3:27:09uh would be the latter scenario of now
3:27:11if we break under the 97s and it resists
3:27:13it and it rejects it, this is going to
3:27:15be the downside move that we're talking
3:27:16about.
3:27:18Uh so, just be cautious of the 6697s,
3:27:21the 6690s.
3:27:23I would just be very cautious around it
3:27:25and watch price action around it again.
3:27:28So, see you all tomorrow. Peace out,
3:27:30right?
3:27:31Enjoy the uh rest of your day. All
3:27:32right, so this context that is set up,
3:27:34it was on September 2nd was the week
3:27:36prior to this. The market, this is a
3:27:38daily chart, had broken above the
3:27:41previous all-time high at 6508.
3:27:45And this is a scenario, and again, this
3:27:47is another playbook to add to your
3:27:48context or add to your uh system, is
3:27:51this is what I call look above and fail
3:27:53scenario. When the market has an
3:27:55all-time high, an all-time low, a
3:27:57resistance level, a support level, and
3:27:59we break that level,
3:28:01especially on increasing volume, yet
3:28:05fail to close above that level or in
3:28:07fact break back under that level, this
3:28:10is a very good sign for a reversal, a
3:28:13very good sign the market is not
3:28:14accepting this move, and a very good
3:28:16sign in this context that lower prices
3:28:18are going to be very likely. So, going
3:28:20to a smaller time frame chart such as a
3:28:2230-minute, we could see this level
3:28:24marked out where the market had broken
3:28:25above it, it failed to close above it,
3:28:28and the following session we saw a
3:28:30significant amount of red, aggressive
3:28:32selling to the downside, indicating that
3:28:34this is a look above and fail scenario,
3:28:36which again is a sign of weakness. Now,
3:28:39we have the market opening up on Labor
3:28:41Day, which is Monday, September 1st. It
3:28:43was a half day, nothing significant, but
3:28:46zooming out, we could see the market
3:28:47basically consolidating in this tight
3:28:50range right here, which I call the
3:28:52balance range low. Now, Tuesday happens,
3:28:55this is the first full trading session
3:28:57of the week, and the market in this
3:28:59pre-market session begins to
3:29:00aggressively sell off combining with the
3:29:03context of the look and above and fail
3:29:05scenario. Now, we aggressively move
3:29:07lower and the market is selling off
3:29:09about 90 points or so. And now I'm going
3:29:11to add my levels that I had on my
3:29:12charts.
3:29:14Again, here's the failed all-time high
3:29:15breakout. Here's the sell off, and the
3:29:18market is now selling off about 90
3:29:20points in a pre-market session with
3:29:23essentially zero relief or zero signs
3:29:26the market wants to bounce.
3:29:28Here's the pre-market session selling
3:29:30off, and now we're selling off into this
3:29:32level of demand on a 2-hour chart at
3:29:346389 with elevated volume. When I see
3:29:38the market sell off on elevated volume
3:29:41into a level of interest, not only do we
3:29:44have a level of interest, which is this
3:29:452-hour demand zone at 6389,
3:29:48but we also now have elevated volume at
3:29:51the level of interest. So, this goes to
3:29:52show you that we have a level of
3:29:55interest pre-existing, and now the
3:29:56elevated volume shows that there is
3:29:59interest at this level of interest, and
3:30:02this is something that I now need to
3:30:04keep my eye on significantly and watch
3:30:06price action around.
3:30:08So, in the pre-market plan, the main
3:30:10thing that I was watching for here was
3:30:11after that sell off overnight, I'm first
3:30:14looking for a relief bounce at this
3:30:16level at 6389 demand, and then I would
3:30:19look to target the the levels of upside.
3:30:21And again, this was such an important
3:30:23key level of demand.
3:30:25In the intraday commentary, this is kind
3:30:27of where I update my thoughts throughout
3:30:28the day via text commentary. Uh this is
3:30:31essentially like the live trading room
3:30:32in Invest the Trade. Uh it's all done
3:30:34via text.
3:30:35Uh elevated volume here again at this
3:30:37level.
3:30:38And zooming in to August 21st, there was
3:30:42larger sized buying around 6380 from
3:30:45August 21st, which was a few weeks ago.
3:30:48This was the nearest level of strong
3:30:49volume that I have from the tape. So,
3:30:51zooming in here we could see this
3:30:53elevated volume which was getting
3:30:55transacted around 6385
3:30:576384 from August 21st.
3:31:02So, now going to August 21st, what makes
3:31:04this even more significant now is August
3:31:0721st was where this level of demand
3:31:09essentially formed from. Here we have
3:31:11the 21st, here we have the 20th. And
3:31:14this was the period where the market
3:31:16consolidated in this range followed by
3:31:19an aggressive rally to the upside
3:31:21indicating this is a level of demand and
3:31:23on the 2-hour chart starting at 6389
3:31:26and even a 30-minute at the 6373s.
3:31:29So, now just to reiterate all the
3:31:30points, we're selling off without a
3:31:32relief in the pre-market plan into this
3:31:35level of interest with elevated volume.
3:31:38Now, that's our pre-planned scenario,
3:31:40our pre-planned context. This is where
3:31:43now the live trade is going to come into
3:31:44the effect to understand what happened
3:31:46when the market was open. And just to
3:31:49understand also a little bit in depth,
3:31:52the market's going to sell off and I get
3:31:54long at the 6390s going for a 15-20.5
3:31:58point target having a 6-point stop loss.
3:32:01Again, this is where I got my 3 and 1/2
3:32:02to 1
3:32:03um
3:32:04risk-to-reward ratio.
3:32:06So, now I'm going to play the tape here
3:32:07and let's get into this live replay
3:32:09because there's a couple key points that
3:32:11made me click this buy button here. So,
3:32:13what we're going to see now in this live
3:32:15replay is the market is going to
3:32:18sell off and we could see in the start
3:32:20of the market, this is the first 5
3:32:21minutes, we're going to sell off into
3:32:23the 6389 level. And off the footprint
3:32:26chart, which you could see as this top
3:32:27left platform, we're going to see a lot
3:32:29of red there which just indicates the
3:32:31market is selling off into this level of
3:32:33demand with a lot of selling.
3:32:36Now, fast forwarding this a little bit
3:32:37more,
3:32:38what we're going to see down here is
3:32:40what I call and this is a playbook that
3:32:41I talk about in the Invested Trading
3:32:43Academy,
3:32:44>> [snorts]
3:32:45>> is what I call a B shape. And not only
3:32:48did the market now break under the
3:32:50pre-market low. Where my cursor's at,
3:32:51the market is breaking the pre-market
3:32:53low in a level of demand. If the market
3:32:56ever breaks a low or breaks above a
3:32:58high, similar to what I just showed
3:33:00above all-time high, and fails, and it
3:33:02reclaims back into that range, that to
3:33:05me is a very good reversal signal. So,
3:33:07right now the market is breaking under
3:33:09this pre-market low where we saw it had
3:33:11the elevated volume in the pre-market
3:33:14with aggressive selling volume. You
3:33:16could see it by the red bubbles
3:33:17indicating trades hitting the bid and
3:33:19all the red tape hitting on the
3:33:20footprint chart. And what we're going to
3:33:22see here now, I'm going to speed this up
3:33:23a little bit. So, this is going to be 2x
3:33:25speed. Is we're going to see the market
3:33:27essentially build volume near this low,
3:33:30and now we're going to reclaim back into
3:33:32the range above those pre-market lows
3:33:35that formed down here where my cursor's
3:33:37at. Right now we're starting to see
3:33:39aggressive volume coming in, and now
3:33:41we're reclaiming back into the range.
3:33:43Keep in mind, if I pull up the Discord
3:33:44here, on August 21st, where that level
3:33:46of demand came from, this is where that
3:33:48volume came from around 6385. So, now we
3:33:51see volume inside from a previous
3:33:54session, a level of demand, which again
3:33:56is why that level of demand
3:33:58uh formed.
3:33:59So, now playing this replay,
3:34:02we're going to see the market try to
3:34:03rally up here, right? And now we're
3:34:05going to pull back again, and we're
3:34:06going to build volume around 6384.
3:34:09You're going to see me zoom in here. I'm
3:34:10going to speed it up, and watch the
3:34:12volume build here near the low of day.
3:34:14It's building at the 84s. We could see
3:34:16the heat map kind of building volume. We
3:34:18try to rally. We pulled back into the
3:34:2084s again.
3:34:22Try to rally right there, watch. We're
3:34:23going to pull back again, and now we see
3:34:26heavy volume developing here at the low,
3:34:28and we kind of see this rounding pattern
3:34:31at 6480 or 6384 6485, and again the
3:34:35market's reclaiming into this range. So,
3:34:37speeding up this replay even more,
3:34:40we're going to pull back again into
3:34:41these 87s and we hold it.
3:34:44Now, what's very important here is I'm
3:34:45going to speed it up is the market's
3:34:48going to lift and we leave another B
3:34:50shape on the footprint chart. But, what
3:34:52I want you all to keep an eye on and
3:34:53this is what made me click the buy
3:34:55button.
3:34:56Following this was on this pullback
3:34:58right here.
3:35:00I'm going to screenshot this so you can
3:35:01see it a lot better. On this pullback
3:35:03right here, we see high volume on the
3:35:05footprint. We see high volume on the
3:35:07footprint and a lift, which gives us
3:35:08that B. And now we see a lot of
3:35:10aggressive selling here with a bit
3:35:13appearing and now we're going to see the
3:35:14market lift. If I were to zoom in on
3:35:16this day, this is a flag right here.
3:35:18This is a perfect wedge or flag,
3:35:21whatever you want to call it, where the
3:35:22market basically consolidates and what
3:35:25made it more valuable or reliable was
3:35:27there's a lot of aggressive selling and
3:35:28then the market's going to lift. So,
3:35:30watch this occur here in real time. I'm
3:35:32going to play this replay for you all.
3:35:34We're going to aggressively rally and
3:35:35aggressively lift. Boom, right there.
3:35:38Now, this range, 63-87, is something now
3:35:41I'm watching for the market to pull back
3:35:43into because we're spotting these
3:35:45buyers. If the market pulls back into
3:35:46these buyers and supports these buyers,
3:35:49that's a very, very bullish sign. So,
3:35:51the market's going to lift. And watch
3:35:53what's going to happen here. We're going
3:35:54to pull back. All right, so now what
3:35:55we're going to see here is the market's
3:35:56going to pull back into
3:35:59this high volume on the footprint.
3:36:02And we're going to pull back into, which
3:36:03again, you can't really see this from
3:36:05the chart, which is what I like and kind
3:36:06of makes it more reliable.
3:36:09We're going to pull it back into this
3:36:10range right here.
3:36:12At the 88-87s.
3:36:14And this is also the range of this high
3:36:15volume right here.
3:36:17On the footprint chart.
3:36:18And watch, you're going to see as I get
3:36:20in long, you're going to see this open
3:36:22P&L start to be active, which shows that
3:36:24I have an open position. Let's fast
3:36:26forward this. We're going to dip down
3:36:28and you're going to see me get long the
3:36:2990s right here. So, we dip, it holds
3:36:31this volume.
3:36:32It holds this activity on uh Bookmap.
3:36:36Right? You see all this activity right
3:36:37here. This right here
3:36:42is where I'm getting long right about
3:36:45now. So, now I'm in long
3:36:48at the 90s. My stop loss is up below the
3:36:5084s where the high volume is at the low,
3:36:53and I'm going to target the 6405s,
3:36:56which is just a pre-market high. The
3:36:59real reason for entering this trade was
3:37:01this buying right here on that flag
3:37:02holding. That selling that lifted the
3:37:04market there holding, which indicated a
3:37:06passive buyer, and the volume on the
3:37:08footprint also holding. Keep in mind,
3:37:10this is at a level of demand
3:37:12with a 90-point sell-off without any
3:37:14relief. I was just going for a quick
3:37:16relief bounce, and breaking under the
3:37:18pre-market low, and now holding it as
3:37:20support once we reclaimed back into the
3:37:21range. Those were the main pieces for
3:37:23this setup, and I'm in this trade long.
3:37:25Now, truthfully, a better confirmation,
3:37:27I'm going to fast forward this year.
3:37:30A better confirmation is going to be a
3:37:31revisit of this level. Watch what
3:37:33happens here when the market pulls back
3:37:34into this.
3:37:36A very good sign, this is what I call
3:37:38passive buying.
3:37:39Passive bids entering the market is when
3:37:42the market pulls back into this level
3:37:43where there's strong bids. You can see
3:37:45it here on the on the book map down at
3:37:46the bottom at the 6387s.
3:37:49We hold this level of bids, and the
3:37:52market lifts aggressively. Us holding
3:37:54this orange line, which is a passive
3:37:55buyer, is very bullish, and even right
3:37:57here is an excellent point to enter,
3:37:59putting your stop loss under the low.
3:38:02And then from there, it was just game
3:38:04over. The market rallies. We lift even
3:38:06higher. I'm still in this trade, and now
3:38:08I'm looking to get out at the first sign
3:38:10of weakness. It blew past my target. So,
3:38:12what I do is is I have a target in mind.
3:38:14If it just blows straight past my
3:38:16target, I'm not getting out there. I'm
3:38:17getting out on the first sign of
3:38:18weakness. So, we're going to see here,
3:38:20speeding this up, as soon as I start
3:38:21seeing a little red come in, right
3:38:22there, I get out of this trade, and that
3:38:25was a 289 points on the S&P. You times
3:38:27that by 50 a contract.
3:38:30Uh, and that was the setup. It continued
3:38:31to rally on me, and I could have made X
3:38:33amount of dollars more, but I had a
3:38:34plan, followed my plan, and that was it.
3:38:36It was a simple trade that lasted 10
3:38:37minutes uh, with a significant profit.
3:38:40And that's the beauty of having a
3:38:42repeatable setup. And just to reiterate
3:38:44these points, all it was was the support
3:38:47that we saw come down here around the
3:38:506387s.
3:38:51It held as support. I took it long
3:38:53there.
3:38:54More bids were filling, right? We see
3:38:56this orange line filling down here. Um,
3:38:59and I think it was good that you could
3:39:00see my execution so you could see, all
3:39:01right, as soon as I see this, I'm
3:39:02clicking the buy button. I'm not waiting
3:39:04for the market to lift. I'm not waiting
3:39:06for it to, you know, have a lot of
3:39:07aggressive buying. I'm getting in when I
3:39:09see this confirmation. And if it wasn't
3:39:11for those other points, again, just
3:39:13reiterating them,
3:39:14large aggressive volume breaking under
3:39:16the pre-market low, right? Look at all
3:39:18this elevated volume here.
3:39:20At a level of demand after a 90-point
3:39:22sell-off without any relief, reclaiming
3:39:24the range, bids filling, aggressive
3:39:27buying coming in, the B shapes on the
3:39:28profile, just validated this trade, and
3:39:31that was pretty much it. It's just a
3:39:32simple setup. It's repeatable. It comes
3:39:34down to repeatability. If you can have a
3:39:36setup that's repeatable, you have a
3:39:38setup that is going to make you money in
3:39:40the long term.
3:39:41And that was it for this trade. So, if
3:39:42you learned anything from this, if you
3:39:44want me to make more videos like this,
3:39:46let me know.
3:39:46>> Now, again, Carmine, really appreciate
3:39:48you being with us today and, you know,
3:39:50diving deep into this and it definitely
3:39:51opened my eyes even to a better
3:39:53understanding. And same with everyone at
3:39:55home, drop a comment with your biggest
3:39:57takeaway from this episode. Any
3:39:58questions for your favorite to drop them
3:40:00in the comments below. Me and Carmine
3:40:01will take a look at those. But, to
3:40:03Carmine's point, links for Carmine's
3:40:05channel and his other socials will be in
3:40:07the description below. So, if you're
3:40:08looking at doing an even deeper dive
3:40:10and, you know, as he said, extra steps
3:40:12beyond this, go check out that order
3:40:14flow series on Carmine's channel right
3:40:16now. But, hit like, hit subscribe. Other
3:40:19episodes are on screen, and this has
3:40:20been Chart Phenix. Take care.

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