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Linear vs. Exponential: AGI Has Arrived But Oil, Bonds and the Fed Oh My — Transcript

by Jordi Visser · 9,480 words · 1,347 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00Let's get to work. Um, it's Friday,
  2. 0:02September 11th, 25 years ago.
  3. 0:06Uh,
  4. 0:08I lost my best friend and the best man
  5. 0:11at my wedding. Uh, tonight I am going to
  6. 0:14go out with some other friends. So, I'm
  7. 0:16going to talk about that briefly, but I
  8. 0:18just wanted to uh say I'm thinking for
  9. 0:20everyone that lost someone in in there
  10. 0:23or remembers that day as something as
  11. 0:26tragic as it was for me. Uh I uh thank
  12. 0:30everyone for reaching out after I kind
  13. 0:32of relayed that story a few weeks ago
  14. 0:35when I was still in Maine. So we're
  15. 0:37going to go through linear verse
  16. 0:38exponential thinking. Uh oil bonds and
  17. 0:41Fed. Oh my. I'll continue on this thing
  18. 0:43of if you're paying attention to oil
  19. 0:46bonds and the Fed, uh you're in a linear
  20. 0:49world and you need to focus on AGI has
  21. 0:53arrived. That should be the big news
  22. 0:54story of the week. It shouldn't be
  23. 0:55whether bond yields were up 10 basis
  24. 0:57points, whether oil was up $10, whether
  25. 0:59the Fed might goes from 65% to 85%. Uh,
  26. 1:03AGI has arrived. Uh, I'm going to go
  27. 1:05through Astra. I'm going to give you
  28. 1:07guys some podcast to get up to speed. I
  29. 1:09am going to show you how to build a
  30. 1:10trading system using it and especially
  31. 1:13for your kids. I created a subscriber
  32. 1:16video uh this week after I built one
  33. 1:19myself. I'm going to go through what I
  34. 1:21did, what you guys can do, uh, how you
  35. 1:23can attach an AI agent to it using Mumu,
  36. 1:27Robin Hood, Interactive Brokers, you
  37. 1:30three, reach out to me. I'm trying to
  38. 1:32help your people be able to do what I'm
  39. 1:36going to show and connect it in there so
  40. 1:38that they can start building systems,
  41. 1:40even if it's paper trading at this
  42. 1:41point. The amount of entrepreneurial
  43. 1:43success people will have by being able
  44. 1:45to do this will blow them away. It will
  45. 1:46empower them significantly. Of course,
  46. 1:48there's bad news. Robin Hood, we'll go
  47. 1:50through a question that I get asked all
  48. 1:52the time, which is hard to answer for
  49. 1:55people. How to value Ethereum and the
  50. 1:56crypto ecosystem. So, uh, Christopher
  51. 2:00Shawn Kaitton. Shawn Kaitton who worked
  52. 2:02at Caner. I'm sure there's people that
  53. 2:04over the years had, uh, met him. This is
  54. 2:06a photo of him on a July 4th. Uh, very
  55. 2:11big manquan person. And here is his name
  56. 2:15down here. Tonight I will be going out
  57. 2:17with these three guys. Um that's me.
  58. 2:20This is almost 40 years ago now. That is
  59. 2:22a photo of Shawn at my wedding.
  60. 2:26Uh so again for people who remember this
  61. 2:29day uh in the emotional way that I do I
  62. 2:33am thinking about you linear visser
  63. 2:36labs. Again you have to make a decision
  64. 2:39which side of this you want to be on. If
  65. 2:41you're worried about oil bonds and
  66. 2:43rates, again, I'm going to keep saying
  67. 2:45during these years, the economy cared
  68. 2:47about oil bonds and rates. That all
  69. 2:50changed beginning in 2008. That is when
  70. 2:53the exponential world took off because
  71. 2:55of the release of iPhone the year before
  72. 2:58and because transfer payments started to
  73. 2:59grow and the government really started
  74. 3:00to take up its debt. This is when we
  75. 3:03exited this point and this started and I
  76. 3:06went to Silicon Valley in 2013. I'll get
  77. 3:08through that again as I've talked about,
  78. 3:10but this is the world we're in and this
  79. 3:12is the world that has been making money
  80. 3:14since 2008. You wanted to be in the MAG
  81. 3:167. So, I figured by now people would
  82. 3:19have learned their lesson about caring
  83. 3:20about where oil was, where rates were,
  84. 3:22where all this stuff was, other than
  85. 3:24again, I get it traders. But on a day
  86. 3:26where we had higher than expected core
  87. 3:29inflation yesterday, we had higher than
  88. 3:31expected PPI, the probability the Fed
  89. 3:34went up, crude oil went through, the war
  90. 3:36is getting worse, and over the two days,
  91. 3:39as of when I started doing this, the S&P
  92. 3:41was up slightly. So, how do these things
  93. 3:44actually matter if they don't matter? So
  94. 3:47again, the news is focused on this. This
  95. 3:50is a linear world. These are things that
  96. 3:52mattered when housing and autos were
  97. 3:54driving the economy. AI capex is driving
  98. 3:56the economy. And as I showed last week,
  99. 3:59it is not at all rate sensitive. Uh the
  100. 4:01Fed rate hike odds surged to 90%.
  101. 4:07Jackson Hole from Timuros. I think this
  102. 4:10the reason I put this in there is the
  103. 4:11market is testing you, Warsh. This is a
  104. 4:14double dog daring you. This is straight
  105. 4:16schoolyard. The market is fighting with
  106. 4:19wars and bessent which I think is just
  107. 4:21great because more importantly I think
  108. 4:23people should be looking for ways to
  109. 4:24make money on the linear on the
  110. 4:26exponential side. But again that's just
  111. 4:28me. That's why I'm doing these videos
  112. 4:30because I think you guys are here either
  113. 4:32to at least know what's happening in
  114. 4:34that part of the world but also some of
  115. 4:36you want to make money on it. Uh the
  116. 4:38third mandate moderate long-term
  117. 4:40interest rates for the Fed. Just always
  118. 4:41keep this in mind that Trump clearly has
  119. 4:44got Bessant to be fighting the market in
  120. 4:46a way that Trump would fight the market
  121. 4:48participants and Worsh isn't fighting
  122. 4:51people but at the same time he was
  123. 4:53chosen by Bessant and Trump and they
  124. 4:57don't want rates higher. So we'll see
  125. 4:58what happens. Uh Besson's upsized
  126. 5:01buybacks get hit. So he goes to six
  127. 5:03billion and the market immediately sells
  128. 5:05off again. Good news hit with bad news.
  129. 5:10So that means the market's acting badly,
  130. 5:12but the S&P's up over the two days. Is
  131. 5:14it talk time to talk about plan B? If
  132. 5:17this doesn't work, they'll just cut
  133. 5:18long-term issuance outright.
  134. 5:22I mean, Besson is trying to be as
  135. 5:24obnoxious as possible. Um, I am the
  136. 5:26House now. Underscore his level of
  137. 5:28engagement on economic policymaking in
  138. 5:30Japan where he has coordinated with
  139. 5:32Japan finance minister again why
  140. 5:34fighting the government is the best
  141. 5:36trade. He's speaking out against the
  142. 5:39Bloomberg terminal bros. The arrogance
  143. 5:42stuff is coming out for the week. The
  144. 5:45S&P
  145. 5:47we're holding the 50-day for now.
  146. 5:49There's nothing much going on. Again,
  147. 5:51this looks more like a flag formation
  148. 5:53after a big high. We had this one here,
  149. 5:56then we went sideways, then we went up
  150. 5:57again. As I mentioned last week, we're
  151. 5:59barely up since June 2nd. So unless the
  152. 6:02economy is going to fall off and
  153. 6:04earnings are going to fall off, as far
  154. 6:06as I'm concerned, we can keep doing this
  155. 6:08for a while. But if you look, we did
  156. 6:10this rip and then pain here. We did this
  157. 6:14rip and then pain here. Guys, I showed
  158. 6:17this with Nvidia. Get used to the fact
  159. 6:19that when this just rips, it's going to
  160. 6:20rip for three days just when you're
  161. 6:23feeling like it has no chance of
  162. 6:24ripping.
  163. 6:26Here are the facts. Revisions this week
  164. 6:2932 up there. This is the 20week average
  165. 6:32of revisions.
  166. 6:34Here's PMI. The leading indicators are
  167. 6:36doing great. HYG relative to IEF, the
  168. 6:40proxy that I'll use real time and the
  169. 6:42one that I care the most about as an
  170. 6:44overlay rel instead of spreads. Two, the
  171. 6:48S&P had a huge ripper week. HYG up
  172. 6:52relative to EF, meaning as bonds are
  173. 6:54selling off, HY is not. Here it is
  174. 6:57overlaid with the S&P. If you go back
  175. 6:59and look at this in 2022 when the Fed
  176. 7:01was aggressively raising rate hikes as
  177. 7:02the S&P was going down, this was going
  178. 7:05down despite rates going higher. So
  179. 7:07again, the proxy for the equity market
  180. 7:09with credit completely fine. And as I
  181. 7:11said last week, bond va's not moving,
  182. 7:13junk spreads aren't moving. Uh any part
  183. 7:17the inflation expectations via tips not
  184. 7:20moving like the market is saying h we
  185. 7:22don't really care about what's going on.
  186. 7:24But the aida and the emotion in people
  187. 7:26is AI thematic portfolio. My portfolio
  188. 7:30uh breaking above the 50-day today.
  189. 7:32We'll see if it can get going. Um we're
  190. 7:35still doing the low V consolidation
  191. 7:38here, but we've already broken the
  192. 7:4050-day on what I consider the most
  193. 7:41important part, which is my 10 name
  194. 7:43concentrated one of the 10 names that I
  195. 7:45feel are the best by different
  196. 7:48groupings. So, if you guys haven't done
  197. 7:51it yet, I'd go look at it because it
  198. 7:53broke above the 50-day and it's getting
  199. 7:55close to the August highs.
  200. 7:57The names are all acting well. Bitcoin,
  201. 8:01well,
  202. 8:02flag
  203. 8:04range trading, Ethereum
  204. 8:08break, we'll see if it can continue.
  205. 8:09Broke broke back in before today's
  206. 8:11close. Uh, but again, I've said it
  207. 8:13before, I think Ethereum should be
  208. 8:14outperforming Bitcoin when we're
  209. 8:16actually in the bull market. uh because
  210. 8:17the ecosystem and the network effect
  211. 8:19should be the critical thing because the
  212. 8:20agentic side especially with Astra and a
  213. 8:24huge week for Ethereum over Bitcoin
  214. 8:27breaking out again to the highest level
  215. 8:29since January.
  216. 8:31Bessent warns nothing else would matter
  217. 8:33if China wins the AI race. There is no
  218. 8:35day after tomorrow if China wins this.
  219. 8:37Why would we fight the AI trade and why
  220. 8:40would you fight the bond side? Go with
  221. 8:43what he's saying. you don't have to go
  222. 8:45buy bonds because that to me is not a
  223. 8:47good idea. But I do believe fighting the
  224. 8:49AI trade is a bad idea. So again, do you
  225. 8:52want to be a linear side of my V or do
  226. 8:54you want to be the exponential side? You
  227. 8:56guys make the choice. But again, this is
  228. 8:59the big news of the week. We've talked
  229. 9:01about AGI. We've heard about AGI. Jensen
  230. 9:03Yuang, the godfather of AI, said AGI has
  231. 9:06arrived with Astra.
  232. 9:09The moonshot's portfolio covered it well
  233. 9:11and again 100,000k
  234. 9:15is what basically Astro was trained on.
  235. 9:17The next model is four times the size
  236. 9:20and behind that the Vera Rubins. Why
  237. 9:23fade this guys? Why? Why? The IQ is
  238. 9:27going through the roof and we're doing
  239. 9:28things unthinkable. So it was trained on
  240. 9:32100,000. They say research agents are
  241. 9:34now generating 3.1 workdays for every
  242. 9:36human workday. They hit the Navier
  243. 9:39Stokes
  244. 9:41challenge which mathematicians have been
  245. 9:44trying to do for a long time by using
  246. 9:4610,000 AI agents working in parallel for
  247. 9:4888 hours. So we hear about the agents
  248. 9:50working together on the negative side.
  249. 9:51This is then solving some of the world's
  250. 9:53greatest problems which have huge
  251. 9:55implications for physics and as I'll
  252. 9:58show huge implications for the PE of the
  253. 10:00S&P 500 going up five years. Compute can
  254. 10:02increasingly be converted into
  255. 10:04intelligence. Intelligence can be
  256. 10:05multiplied into thousands of agents. So
  257. 10:07again, more compute, higher
  258. 10:09intelligence, more intelligence, more
  259. 10:11agents. We're at the critical point
  260. 10:13where this is where we were in October
  261. 10:18of last year. We reached the point of
  262. 10:20high enough IQ to move into the second
  263. 10:22side. Those agents can be put at
  264. 10:25problems like the Navier Stokes which
  265. 10:27get us closer to curing drug disease at
  266. 10:29a mass scale solving problems for energy
  267. 10:32solving all physics pro like we start
  268. 10:35getting into the things that it's all
  269. 10:36built on and that's where we are now the
  270. 10:39agentic side means a big change and
  271. 10:42that's why I talk about crypto so much
  272. 10:44it's why I talk about other parts which
  273. 10:46we'll go through but we need more
  274. 10:48compute for that and we are nowhere in
  275. 10:51the compute side so we need a lot of
  276. 10:53GPUs and that's why GPU prices just
  277. 10:56refuse to go down.
  278. 10:58Now the way GDP changes more people plus
  279. 11:01more capital plus higher productivity.
  280. 11:03That's what the formula has always been
  281. 11:05on. But with AI a new possibility shows
  282. 11:08up. We have the human labor. Same thing
  283. 11:10up here. We don't need more people
  284. 11:11though because we now have digital labor
  285. 11:13and we actually have accelerating
  286. 11:14productivity because we not only have
  287. 11:16more of these to replace these but as I
  288. 11:17showed these work at three to five times
  289. 11:19this. This is my whole if you just take
  290. 11:22weekly hours, go through the economy for
  291. 11:24human beings, you add in the lunch
  292. 11:27breaks, the smoking breaks, the flirting
  293. 11:29breaks, and everything else that goes on
  294. 11:31and the daydreaming and not working.
  295. 11:33Just go back to um the office and go see
  296. 11:36how much time was wasted. Agents don't
  297. 11:38do that. They have no need for that.
  298. 11:40They also have no emotions from a
  299. 11:41trading side, which I'll get through.
  300. 11:42The old constraint on GDP was ultimately
  301. 11:44the number of humans and the
  302. 11:46productivity of their time. The new
  303. 11:48constraint may increasingly become
  304. 11:50compute, energy, and our ability to
  305. 11:51deploy intelligence. The reality is GDP
  306. 11:54productivity already is accelerating.
  307. 11:56It's seen through profit margins at this
  308. 11:57point. Forget the economist trying to
  309. 12:00figure this out. The model of GDP is
  310. 12:04wrong. You can't say that GDP, the index
  311. 12:07created in the 1930s to measure
  312. 12:09industrial production, is the right
  313. 12:12metric to be using to say productivity
  314. 12:14is not higher. Think about it.
  315. 12:15Productivity is an output of GDP. GDP
  316. 12:19doesn't count IP. G GDP doesn't count
  317. 12:21lots of things. That's why we change it
  318. 12:23all the time. It doesn't know what's
  319. 12:25happening. Navier Stokes importance. I'm
  320. 12:28not going to take you through all this.
  321. 12:29The reason I wanted to show this is
  322. 12:31because Navier Stokes, which I knew
  323. 12:34nothing about until two days ago, but I
  324. 12:36spent a lot of time, as I always do,
  325. 12:37when I hear something that they say is
  326. 12:39really important from a physics basis
  327. 12:41because it gets us closer to
  328. 12:44solving things in energy,
  329. 12:45transportation, compute, manufacturing,
  330. 12:47again, efficiency, medicine, climate,
  331. 12:49and more. But more importantly, I've
  332. 12:51talked about this, the PE of the market,
  333. 12:54which is is not here, but I want you to
  334. 12:56think about it. The economy gets bigger
  335. 12:58because of science break breakthroughs.
  336. 13:01So the total economic size gets bigger.
  337. 13:04More energy, more transportation, more
  338. 13:05compute, more manufacturing. Go spend
  339. 13:08time on why that's the case. Again, we
  340. 13:11get to a point where the TAM gets bigger
  341. 13:14at the same time that corporate duration
  342. 13:17gets shorter. This is terminal value. So
  343. 13:20we've already gone through this episode
  344. 13:21for
  345. 13:23software companies. We're kind of going
  346. 13:25through it already in hardware with
  347. 13:27Nvidia trading at such a cheap PE.
  348. 13:29Multiples are going to compress because
  349. 13:31terminal value, the ability to know when
  350. 13:33a company will have a cliff of their
  351. 13:36earnings no longer growing. And that's
  352. 13:38all it takes. Because once AI disrupts
  353. 13:41your business and your earnings are no
  354. 13:42longer growing, where should your
  355. 13:44multiple be? Should it be one? Where
  356. 13:47should it be if you're not growing
  357. 13:48anymore? That'll be a question that's
  358. 13:50going. And I know human beings won't
  359. 13:52want to buy anything that's not growing.
  360. 13:53So you're left in a situation that's
  361. 13:55there. Now if they're not growing, the
  362. 13:57only way they want it is the usefulness
  363. 13:58of the community and things like that.
  364. 14:00Again, it gets back into crypto. It gets
  365. 14:01into a mindset change which is happening
  366. 14:04with younger people. It's never going to
  367. 14:05happen with older people, but older
  368. 14:07people will get recycled with the newer
  369. 14:09people. So this is something important
  370. 14:11to think about because solving Navier
  371. 14:13Stokes leads to the ability of having
  372. 14:16and I'm just going to go through that.
  373. 14:17You can read all the different parts of
  374. 14:19what this means. I just want you to know
  375. 14:21it means better turbines, better
  376. 14:22aircraft, better cooling systems, better
  377. 14:25ships, better reactors, better
  378. 14:27batteries, industrial products, and
  379. 14:28more. Things just get more efficient. It
  380. 14:31changes everything. If you want to go
  381. 14:33read more about the people who know
  382. 14:36what's coming and then let their
  383. 14:38economist translate into what's coming,
  384. 14:40go to the economists who actually see
  385. 14:42the data. Most economists have no idea
  386. 14:45what models are coming up. The
  387. 14:46anthropicus economists do. So go read
  388. 14:49their economics team. I know everyone's
  389. 14:51going to read the Goldman Sachs one. I
  390. 14:53know everyone's going to read the Morgan
  391. 14:54and Stanley one. I know everyone's going
  392. 14:55to read all these different ones and
  393. 14:56they're going to listen to the rate
  394. 14:57forecast and they're going to go through
  395. 14:58this and I'm arguing that none of that
  396. 15:00matters because it's all linear thinking
  397. 15:02and that is the truth from my side. The
  398. 15:05truth Greg Brockman from OpenAI spoke.
  399. 15:08He's a boring guy but if you want to go
  400. 15:09listen to the interview it's only 20
  401. 15:10some odd minutes 24 minutes to be exact.
  402. 15:13On there he gives a description of what
  403. 15:16Astra is. So Astra AGI is here. He talks
  404. 15:20about it. I highlighted the different
  405. 15:22things you can go. He describes OpenAI's
  406. 15:24direction as merging chat. That is the
  407. 15:26one that almost everyone uses at this
  408. 15:27point with agents. Almost no one uses
  409. 15:29this with desktop. Almost no one uses
  410. 15:31this. Codeex, no tools, no applica. All
  411. 15:35of this in one place. So you can now use
  412. 15:37Astra in this way. So I've been talking
  413. 15:40about the fact that Grockbot allows you
  414. 15:41to use agents. Well, guess what?
  415. 15:44It's not the same user face. It doesn't
  416. 15:46look like a fun video game with your
  417. 15:48little agents running around, but you
  418. 15:52can use agents in this as they did. And
  419. 15:54that's where this all changes. And I
  420. 15:56will get into a little bit of this when
  421. 15:57we get into a trading system side. Uh
  422. 16:00image models, everything along those
  423. 16:02lines in one system. This is the
  424. 16:04critical point for you, for your
  425. 16:05children, for everyone who wants to get
  426. 16:07better, who wants to follow on the path
  427. 16:09of me spending all of my time on AI,
  428. 16:12wants to use it for work, wants to use
  429. 16:13it to build things, wants to have an
  430. 16:15entrepreneurial mindset, and wants to be
  431. 16:17empowered. So, if you don't like your
  432. 16:18job as an accountant, if you don't like
  433. 16:20your job in any kind of knowledge work,
  434. 16:22this is the point where you want to
  435. 16:23start paying attention.
  436. 16:25Greg Brockman, we're really trying to
  437. 16:27empower the individual to make it so
  438. 16:28that you can have superpowers, you can
  439. 16:30accomplish more. And I think that really
  440. 16:31trying to benefit people, empower
  441. 16:33people, build tools that can really help
  442. 16:34you in your daily life. That's what this
  443. 16:36thing does. So I did this on the video
  444. 16:40series. So for those of you who are
  445. 16:41subscribers who've never watched the
  446. 16:43video series, if you have access to it,
  447. 16:45um I did a five six-part video series
  448. 16:49which is all about develop developing an
  449. 16:51AI entrepreneurial mindset. For those of
  450. 16:53you who are not subscribers, this is
  451. 16:55where I would start is I would get these
  452. 16:58and basically be in the position and
  453. 17:00have your kids go through it. I think
  454. 17:02this is critical especially for 15 year
  455. 17:04olds and above. Let's say 15 to 24. I
  456. 17:08also think it's very important for
  457. 17:09people that don't like their jobs at
  458. 17:11this point. But anyone who wants to
  459. 17:13develop a new mindset to ask, to find,
  460. 17:16to build, to test, to fail, to learn, to
  461. 17:18adapt, to repeat. This is all what I'm
  462. 17:20going to show you in the new video,
  463. 17:22which is about how to build something
  464. 17:25from scratch and use the tools without
  465. 17:27needing any coding. I did 90% of the
  466. 17:31work for the first save, if not 100% of
  467. 17:33the work, but 90 plus% of the work and
  468. 17:36AI can do the rest. Um, and I talk about
  469. 17:38that in the video. It's an hour and a
  470. 17:39half video. It does a combination of
  471. 17:42walk you through slides to explain what
  472. 17:44I'm doing and then go to the place where
  473. 17:45the prompts all the prompts you're going
  474. 17:47to get all it's 14 different prompts you
  475. 17:51will have this thing and you're just
  476. 17:52opening something that I built that I
  477. 17:54saved on GitHub. So this will bring
  478. 17:57empowerment you will feel a sense the
  479. 17:59same way I did when I started to use AI
  480. 18:01in a really big way with code two years
  481. 18:03ago. I immediately felt like I had a
  482. 18:06superpower. It gave me agency to build
  483. 18:09my own business which is what I started
  484. 18:11guys. So the YouTube and all of that
  485. 18:12came after I took Python and after I was
  486. 18:14able to manipulate AI in a way through
  487. 18:17very basic stuff but know that the
  488. 18:19models were going to get better to where
  489. 18:21verbally I could just say this and I
  490. 18:22didn't need to speak as I like to say in
  491. 18:24the video. Coding to me was Chinese. I
  492. 18:28could not understand it and so I had to
  493. 18:30have other people translate for me. I
  494. 18:32don't need that anymore and it leads to
  495. 18:33entrepreneurship and you want to be an
  496. 18:35entrepreneur right now because of that
  497. 18:37duration of corporate moes that I
  498. 18:39mentioned. If you work for a company
  499. 18:41that company will be in trouble. So I
  500. 18:44would say the majority of you work for
  501. 18:46companies that need to fire people not
  502. 18:49because hey we're using AI and our
  503. 18:50business is thriving. They need to fire
  504. 18:53people because they're under pressure.
  505. 18:54And they're under pressure because AI
  506. 18:56can do these things all the time. And I
  507. 18:58know that because I'm doing it that way.
  508. 19:00Astra is the most dangerous AI model
  509. 19:02right now. I'm getting into something
  510. 19:03here. These came out and this is what
  511. 19:06triggered me on a journey on Monday,
  512. 19:08Labor Day of this week. Yes, Labor Day
  513. 19:09on a holiday. I was going through, I
  514. 19:13just worked out and I started on the way
  515. 19:14back, I saw all these things and I
  516. 19:16immediately went back and said, "Whoa, I
  517. 19:17want to build some alpha strategies.
  518. 19:19This is cool." Now, I've built alpha
  519. 19:21strategies before, but when I read
  520. 19:23through these, this was completely
  521. 19:25different. And so I uploaded these, got
  522. 19:28the explanation, I uploaded this, I
  523. 19:30uploaded this Jane Street intern openly
  524. 19:32shows on Reddit, but all of this stuff
  525. 19:35to me, got uploaded into chat GPT. And
  526. 19:39you'll be shocked if you just take my
  527. 19:41computer screen, take your snipping
  528. 19:42tool, if you're on a uh a ThinkPad or a
  529. 19:46Microsoft thing, you know that think
  530. 19:48that snipping tool. If you don't, just
  531. 19:50go in search snipping tool, take a a
  532. 19:53snapshot of it, and then go stick it
  533. 19:55into chat GPT and say, "Can you rebuild
  534. 19:57this?" Now, if you don't have Astra,
  535. 19:59it's not going to work the same way.
  536. 20:00Astra is part of the bigger package, but
  537. 20:03I think most people at this point have
  538. 20:05some access to it. If you don't, you can
  539. 20:07find out how to get access to it. Astra
  540. 20:09ran six AI agents on my trading account.
  541. 20:11Probe was one of them. Prism was one of
  542. 20:12them. Again, this is why I said this is
  543. 20:14basically the same thing as
  544. 20:17Grock. I put $500 in, $5,100 in the pot
  545. 20:20by the morning. Now, I could care less
  546. 20:23about these back tests and people making
  547. 20:25money. I don't care. And that's one of
  548. 20:26the things I go through. The great thing
  549. 20:28about a back test is it should fail most
  550. 20:31of the time. And to build an AI trading
  551. 20:33desk,
  552. 20:35the system is designed to reject almost
  553. 20:37everything. This is what I love most
  554. 20:38about this
  555. 20:40ideas
  556. 20:42found. So, thousands of ideas every day.
  557. 20:45This is the critical way to getting to
  558. 20:47something that works is the filtering
  559. 20:49process. Look at it. Many many ideas 99%
  560. 20:53rejected.
  561. 20:55The the balance of the 1% makes it
  562. 20:57there. Then it gets 90% of those get
  563. 20:59rejected. By the time you get to the
  564. 21:00end,
  565. 21:02you have models. Now again, if you're
  566. 21:04wondering how, let's say this here is
  567. 21:08Millennium
  568. 21:09deciding, and I saw this firsthand with
  569. 21:13my hedge fund or the hedge fund that I
  570. 21:15worked at that closed down. Okay, we
  571. 21:18like this, we don't like this, we want
  572. 21:19this, we don't want this. They go
  573. 21:21through and they're looking at ideas and
  574. 21:22they're looking at data to support it.
  575. 21:24It's some back test because they can't
  576. 21:26see the actual people and what went on
  577. 21:28on a daily basis. They can get daily
  578. 21:30returns, but they don't see what
  579. 21:31responded, what happened in their space,
  580. 21:32whatever the case. They're just trying
  581. 21:34to minimize the chance. So, they have
  582. 21:35their own process. Everyone who's
  583. 21:37figuring out who to hire people to get
  584. 21:39returns has it there. If you use AI and
  585. 21:42then you get one and you get two and you
  586. 21:44get three and you get four and you
  587. 21:46combine them all together and they're
  588. 21:47all uncorrelated, you're basically
  589. 21:49creating a mini multistrat. So, again,
  590. 21:51for anyone who wants to build not only a
  591. 21:53trading desk, but wants to build a
  592. 21:54system,
  593. 21:56you can do that. You really can because
  594. 21:58the agents can replace the humans on the
  595. 22:00trading side and I'm telling you the
  596. 22:01lack of emotion will be better. They
  597. 22:04will develop the skill set that's there.
  598. 22:06I believe for most human beings like I
  599. 22:09showed that V where everything changed
  600. 22:11as of the great financial crisis. We're
  601. 22:13at another kind of point of the
  602. 22:14exponential cycle. So what you learned
  603. 22:16over the past 10 years is not going to
  604. 22:18be as helpful as responding today.
  605. 22:20That's why I think momentum becomes a
  606. 22:22dominant factor and why I wanted to go
  607. 22:24do something my own. So one of the edges
  608. 22:27that I still think human beings have is
  609. 22:29on those ideas side
  610. 22:32what I did is wanted to build a
  611. 22:33technical system of when to buy things
  612. 22:34with inside the thematic portfolio. So
  613. 22:37for those of you who've asked for these
  614. 22:38things who've looked for trading signals
  615. 22:40who take the technical side with all of
  616. 22:42the data I give you and then want to
  617. 22:44look at the ratings and be like well
  618. 22:45this thing said buy. No thing doesn't
  619. 22:48tell you what to do. Yes, it'll give you
  620. 22:50some number of what it believes is a buy
  621. 22:53signal without any kind of a really deep
  622. 22:56algorithm. What I wanted to do is go
  623. 22:58back test things and just say okay based
  624. 23:00on what has happened over the past 5
  625. 23:03years, 10 years, nine years, what's in
  626. 23:06trend, what's resetting. So I created
  627. 23:08what is basically out of trend resetting
  628. 23:11coiled trending structural trend sign
  629. 23:14and this is all based on my belief of
  630. 23:16what's happening in the market. So, I've
  631. 23:17talked to you guys about market
  632. 23:18structure changing. I've had lots of
  633. 23:20conversations with the biggest mutual
  634. 23:21funds and hedge funds in the world about
  635. 23:23this. They seem very interested in how
  636. 23:25market structure is changing. They don't
  637. 23:27know why in their head, but they
  638. 23:30understand that it is changing because
  639. 23:32it's getting harder to make money in a
  640. 23:35consistent way without getting out of
  641. 23:39stuff ahead of time. So, it's making it
  642. 23:42more challenging because I believe
  643. 23:44what's going on is you're later to
  644. 23:46things then they get so far overbought
  645. 23:49they make perfect sense and like I did
  646. 23:51with the AI trade. I used what had
  647. 23:54happened because I believe the critical
  648. 23:56thing is select the hundred stock
  649. 23:57universe. So, take my hundred names. I
  650. 23:59believe those hundred names are going to
  651. 24:01benefit from the AI buildout over the
  652. 24:03next five years. The infrastructure
  653. 24:04needs, the compute needs, that is a
  654. 24:06capex trade. Those are the names that
  655. 24:08are going to benefit. Now, I think most
  656. 24:11of them will do what they've done. 80
  657. 24:13plus% are above the 200 day moving
  658. 24:14average with their 200 day moving
  659. 24:15average pointed upward. Great. I think
  660. 24:18overall that's going to create alpha.
  661. 24:20That's a structural bull market. I don't
  662. 24:22think you're going to get what you saw
  663. 24:23in the first quarter again. So, like
  664. 24:24I've said before, I don't think people
  665. 24:25should expect Micron to go back to to do
  666. 24:27a 5,000 from here over the next year,
  667. 24:29another five bagger. Do I think uh
  668. 24:312,000's possible, 1,800, 1,700? Let's
  669. 24:35say 1,600. We're at a,000 right now. you
  670. 24:38wouldn't take 60% on the name even
  671. 24:40though it was a 12 bagger before. Um, I
  672. 24:42think it's going to be really hard to
  673. 24:43find those names because like I said,
  674. 24:44multiple compressions coming. So, I
  675. 24:46think it's great that the multiples are
  676. 24:47compressing for Nvidia and Micron. I
  677. 24:49just don't think you're going to be able
  678. 24:50to make money on them the oldfashioned
  679. 24:51way of being in there and they go up all
  680. 24:53the time. I think most days they'll be
  681. 24:55either down or flat. Uh, and at the end
  682. 24:57of the year, maybe 5% of the rally, the
  683. 25:00days will be the rallies you need to
  684. 25:01miss. And if you miss those five days,
  685. 25:03you miss the whole move. So what I did
  686. 25:05is I said rate of change matters. What I
  687. 25:07care about is the structural uptrend and
  688. 25:09then I'm looking for a resetting. This
  689. 25:11is what the midcycle slowdown was. This
  690. 25:13is when I got out of micron way before
  691. 25:15the top. Then after that's happened I
  692. 25:18want to see coiled on deck. Now to do
  693. 25:20that I used ATR. That's what started
  694. 25:22this whole thing. Average true range
  695. 25:24which I've talked about. Um it's part
  696. 25:26it's a major part of the model. So's
  697. 25:28rate of change get coiled. Then there's
  698. 25:31an ignition. What's the initial point?
  699. 25:32what treats a breakout and then we're
  700. 25:34trending again. So, I'm looking for
  701. 25:36structural bull markets. When things get
  702. 25:38overdone, I want to basically be out
  703. 25:41based on rate of change and then I want
  704. 25:43to wait for them to reset. And I'm
  705. 25:44looking constantly for ideas within the
  706. 25:46space that way. I think you guys are
  707. 25:48going to enjoy it. This is the theory
  708. 25:50behind it. I'm not going to read you
  709. 25:51guys because it's just resetting some of
  710. 25:53the things I said,
  711. 25:55but the back test looks great. So, I'm
  712. 25:57I'm going to give you the end result
  713. 25:59signals on that. At the same time,
  714. 26:03I did a subscriber video. Like I said,
  715. 26:05it's basically on the theme of a
  716. 26:07treasure hunt. Uh, this is everything
  717. 26:09that comes in it. So, you know, you're
  718. 26:11going to get code, you're going to get
  719. 26:13prompts, you're going to get a research
  720. 26:14log, tools, this because it's all on
  721. 26:15GitHub. I put the whole thing in GitHub.
  722. 26:17Yes, you guys don't know what GitHub is.
  723. 26:19I'm going to show you in a second. I
  724. 26:21also built in Socrates mode for you. So,
  725. 26:24again, this is what you're going to be
  726. 26:26able to do. So, subscribers who are at
  727. 26:27this level, you're going to get access
  728. 26:28to it. use it. Here's what GitHub is. If
  729. 26:31you don't know, and I use that Chinese
  730. 26:33analogy for my life having data
  731. 26:36scientists, I needed them to basically
  732. 26:38be able to go into GitHub, which is a
  733. 26:40library of code. So, you don't have to
  734. 26:42reinvent the wheel. I go through this
  735. 26:45and show you how you can go in there and
  736. 26:47if you're an accountant, show me aic
  737. 26:50code accounting so I can be get
  738. 26:52superpowers in accounting so I can
  739. 26:54develop my own skill of knowing how to
  740. 26:56use a AI to be able to do more
  741. 26:59accounting work for my company without
  742. 27:03needing to lose my job. How do I use AI
  743. 27:05to do this? How do I help them? All of
  744. 27:07these things or how do I go set up my
  745. 27:09own business? Whatever. But this gives
  746. 27:11you coding in so many different things.
  747. 27:13It is not just the finance side, but I
  748. 27:15use the finance because back testing
  749. 27:17something I think everyone wants.
  750. 27:19Everyone wants a treasure hunt. They
  751. 27:21want to think that they've created
  752. 27:22renaissance. They've created all this
  753. 27:24stuff. And believe it or not, guys, you
  754. 27:26can have a trading system that can make
  755. 27:28you money going through the thing that
  756. 27:31you do. And you can keep coming up with
  757. 27:32new eyes, new ideas, new ideas, new
  758. 27:34ideas by listen to Stan Duck Miller. Go
  759. 27:37read a book on a chartered technic
  760. 27:39technical analysis. Use Demark. I don't
  761. 27:41really care. Whatever it is, go listen
  762. 27:43to someone who's made money over time
  763. 27:45and take the little parts they want and
  764. 27:47create your own strategy. You can make
  765. 27:49money in it. And again, it may not be
  766. 27:51scalable to run it at a multistrat in
  767. 27:53big size with a billion dollars, but
  768. 27:55there's plenty of strategies that you
  769. 27:57can do. And I believe AI can continue to
  770. 27:59find new strategies at small levels.
  771. 28:01This is one of the things with
  772. 28:02tokenization. You can do crypto as well.
  773. 28:05So, as long as you have good data, you
  774. 28:06can go through it. So, it starts with a
  775. 28:07question. We go to GitHub. We had our
  776. 28:11own idea. We test it, tried to break it.
  777. 28:14This is actually what happened in the
  778. 28:16video. And then we learned how to fail.
  779. 28:18And this is the golden side. You're
  780. 28:19basically learning how to fail and then
  781. 28:21restart and go through it again. When
  782. 28:24you find one that works, this shows you
  783. 28:26all the ways to kind of go through the
  784. 28:28promise, go through the progress using
  785. 28:30AI. It will take you through so many
  786. 28:33levels that are hard to do or hard to
  787. 28:36learn on your own. So, I think you guys
  788. 28:38will enjoy it. I uploaded it this week.
  789. 28:40Again, for people at Robin Hood, for
  790. 28:42people at Mumu, for people at
  791. 28:43Interactive Brokers, this will allow
  792. 28:46people to do what I have here, come up
  793. 28:48with their own trading system, and then
  794. 28:51they can upload it, and you guys can
  795. 28:52show them how it can be an agentic
  796. 28:54trading system on a paper trade. So,
  797. 28:56they can see if it works for whatever
  798. 28:57period they want. They can then upload
  799. 28:5910 more. And that way, they're
  800. 29:01increasing the probability. If you have
  801. 29:0210 different ones running at the same
  802. 29:04time with $100 in each or $50 in each,
  803. 29:07well, now you've got kind of a little
  804. 29:08mini multistrat of different strategies
  805. 29:10going on at the same time, you're
  806. 29:12starting to get empowered and you're
  807. 29:14starting to build something. And more
  808. 29:15importantly, your brain will start
  809. 29:16changing because you're developing an
  810. 29:18entrepreneurial mindset. So again,
  811. 29:21you'll see
  812. 29:23me as a pirate in the video. This is a
  813. 29:26different version. Um, but again, this
  814. 29:29is what it's going to take you through.
  815. 29:30This is where the Robin Hood Mumu, if
  816. 29:31you haven't seen it, again, these
  817. 29:33companies offer a Gentic side. So, I
  818. 29:36know the people at Mumu. I've already
  819. 29:37spoken to them. I want to find ways to
  820. 29:41get you guys to get empowered on this
  821. 29:42and do this stuff on your own. Here's
  822. 29:44the Aentic trading set from Robin Hood.
  823. 29:47Mumu launches Agentic Investing. They've
  824. 29:50been doing this really since April 23rd,
  825. 29:52but I had a meeting with them last week.
  826. 29:53continue to be more advanced on this in
  827. 29:55my opinion in terms of trying to do this
  828. 29:59allowing paper trading going through it
  829. 30:01giving you the API the data prices so as
  830. 30:04long as you go in and open an account
  831. 30:06with them you're going to have access to
  832. 30:08their data so you don't need to use
  833. 30:09Yahoo Finance and their data they're
  834. 30:11telling me is far better than Yahoo
  835. 30:12Finance you guys can go see on your own
  836. 30:14and of course Interactive Brokers has
  837. 30:16had this for some time too this is as of
  838. 30:18June of 2026 so you will learn you will
  839. 30:20build you advance and then you can plug
  840. 30:22it into a trading platform. It's pretty
  841. 30:24cool. I'm doing it with my stuff and
  842. 30:28hopefully I'll be able to give you guys
  843. 30:30a a look at this in the way that they
  844. 30:32have it from the paper trading side. So,
  845. 30:33I'm not going to end with this. I will
  846. 30:35show this for you guys. And again, find
  847. 30:37a GitHub code project that exists that
  848. 30:40could help an accountant begin to
  849. 30:41incorporate AI, how to do their job.
  850. 30:43First, let me know how many you find. I
  851. 30:45found at least 13 relevant GitHub
  852. 30:46projects that could help an accountant
  853. 30:48start incorporating AI into real-time
  854. 30:49accounting flows. A few of them are
  855. 30:51particularly strong for the message
  856. 30:52you're building. You don't have to wait
  857. 30:54for someone to build AI for accountants.
  858. 30:56It's already being built on a public
  859. 30:57GitHub. So again, don't be an AI victim.
  860. 31:01Find, build, experiment, learn. Everyone
  861. 31:03can do this. If you're young and you
  862. 31:05just started at an accounting firm, I'm
  863. 31:07telling you, spend the time on the
  864. 31:09weekend going through this and then see
  865. 31:11if they will let you use it. At a
  866. 31:13minimum, you will know where everything
  867. 31:15is going. Sundar Pachai, if you don't
  868. 31:18learn how to orchestrate agents now,
  869. 31:19you'll spend 2027 catching up to people
  870. 31:21who started today. That is the truth.
  871. 31:24Microsoft plans data center pushed
  872. 31:25triple its computing power. I remember
  873. 31:28people were saying the AI trade was the
  874. 31:30reason it petered out was because
  875. 31:31Microsoft's I mean this just never
  876. 31:33stops. Demand for Astra is really
  877. 31:35unprecedented. 6.2 million views.
  878. 31:39They're running out of space for it
  879. 31:41already. Now, this is an important one.
  880. 31:43These are the H100s.
  881. 31:46And I just want to take you back to the
  882. 31:48Michael Burries, the Jim Chanos's, and
  883. 31:50all the people that said on the
  884. 31:51accounting side, this is the thing
  885. 31:53you'll never get. So for all those guys
  886. 31:55that said this depreciation is a risk
  887. 31:59and the reason it's a risk is because
  888. 32:00there's no chance the those
  889. 32:03prices will go higher. You have to
  890. 32:05depreciate those. And saying this is
  891. 32:07going to last for more than three years
  892. 32:08is ridiculous, especially when the
  893. 32:10technology is getting so much better.
  894. 32:11The technology is getting better.
  895. 32:13Reubens are far better than the H100s.
  896. 32:16H100 rental prices are almost at the
  897. 32:18same level as they were three years ago.
  898. 32:20Think about that, guys. They're at the
  899. 32:22same price. We weren't talking about
  900. 32:24them making it for six years. We were
  901. 32:28talking about Yeah. How can you build in
  902. 32:30They're unchanged in three years. So,
  903. 32:33this again gets into the fact that the
  904. 32:35demand is insatiable. I'll say it every
  905. 32:37single time. By now, there's a normal
  906. 32:40aging process of chips. They should at
  907. 32:42least be down whatever say 10%. They're
  908. 32:46unchanged maybe 20%. The normal rate of
  909. 32:49what people would have thought is down I
  910. 32:51don't know 40% 50% by this time in three
  911. 32:53years and they're almost the same level
  912. 32:55and scarily they've actually gone
  913. 32:57higher. Every depreciation scale assume
  914. 32:59assumes a chip to sold lose only loses
  915. 33:01value. The market is playing paying up
  916. 33:03for it instead. So its rental price is
  917. 33:05up 22% on the month.
  918. 33:10I take you back to Gavin Baker one month
  919. 33:12ago.
  920. 33:14His core point was that the market was
  921. 33:16assuming GPU rental prices would
  922. 33:18steadily fall. Again, this was a month
  923. 33:19ago. You see what it's doing this month.
  924. 33:21Instead, older GPUs were holding their
  925. 33:23value far better than expected. In some
  926. 33:25cases, rental prices were actually
  927. 33:26rising. Exactly what we just saw. What
  928. 33:29he said was, and this is the critical
  929. 33:31point, this changes the financing
  930. 33:33debate. So this is about how much debt
  931. 33:38the hyperscalers will need. The cash
  932. 33:41flow estimates for the hyperscalers in
  933. 33:43cloud in his opinion are way too low
  934. 33:46because of this situation. If cloud
  935. 33:48providers generate much more cash from
  936. 33:50repricing their existing compute. So
  937. 33:52again, think of this side as you buy
  938. 33:56tomatoes at $2
  939. 33:59and the ability to sell tomatoes has now
  940. 34:02gone up to $20. That is the compute
  941. 34:05side. So the compute side is using these
  942. 34:09GPUs to what you can sell to people
  943. 34:11because the demand for the end compute
  944. 34:13is so large when it comes out of the
  945. 34:15data center that the chips that were
  946. 34:17bought to go in the data center have not
  947. 34:19had their prices fall yet. So the
  948. 34:21margins get really really high because
  949. 34:24what they get to do is repric the
  950. 34:25compute when the contracts end. So if
  951. 34:28they if they bought these at $2 and
  952. 34:31let's say the compute was at $3 and now
  953. 34:33compute prices are at $6, but they're
  954. 34:35still using and the demand for the $2
  955. 34:37ones is still there based on the fact
  956. 34:39that people were willing to pay $3 for
  957. 34:41them. So they get to reset their compute
  958. 34:43which was set at $3 to $6. This could
  959. 34:47remove hundreds of billions of dollars
  960. 34:49of expected credit needs. So again,
  961. 34:51whether or not you agree with it, the
  962. 34:53market is depreciating GPUs, the rental
  963. 34:55market is not, that's the issue. And so
  964. 34:58when you look at Nvidia and you look at
  965. 34:59the hyperscalers, there is a way that
  966. 35:01this can turn into not needing as much
  967. 35:03credit and free cash flow going up. And
  968. 35:05like I've said before, they have
  969. 35:07tremendous amounts of not only demand,
  970. 35:11they have cap they they have a capacity
  971. 35:12shortage and Microsoft just reiterated
  972. 35:14that this week. Now, Paul Tudtor Jones
  973. 35:17put out a, you know, a negative piece on
  974. 35:21AI. This is not the first time he's gone
  975. 35:23through it, and this is not a negative
  976. 35:24pace on the technology. He and I have
  977. 35:26exchanged emails, uh, over the past
  978. 35:28month. I think his, you know, he's
  979. 35:31legitimately
  980. 35:33engaged with people trying to figure out
  981. 35:34what's going on. And what's happening is
  982. 35:38shocking. And again, that's how fast
  983. 35:40things are moving. Greg Jensen warned AI
  984. 35:43may need to kill people before
  985. 35:45regulation is kickstarted. If you didn't
  986. 35:47see Iranian hackers shut down a UK power
  987. 35:50plant. Boston Scientific striker drop on
  988. 35:52fallout from cyber attacks. So the cyber
  989. 35:54attacks were so bad for Boston
  990. 35:56Scientific that they had to reduce their
  991. 35:58earnings forecast. Anthropic discloses
  992. 36:01the fourth AI hacking incident involving
  993. 36:03Opus 4.6.
  994. 36:06Anthropic says Iran used its American AI
  995. 36:09model to target US Navy warships. So,
  996. 36:11this is not all positive on AI and I
  997. 36:14believe that this hacking situation will
  998. 36:16continue. It's one of the reasons why
  999. 36:17I'm very positive on crypto as well
  1000. 36:20because I think AI leads to not trusting
  1001. 36:22anything and it will not stop the
  1002. 36:24earnings. It will not stock
  1003. 36:25productivity, but it will hurt smaller
  1004. 36:28businesses and smaller companies that
  1005. 36:30can't protect themselves. So, the cyber
  1006. 36:34side is increasing dramatically. I've
  1007. 36:36heard personally many many places uh
  1008. 36:38through conversations about hit uh about
  1009. 36:41hackings in bitcoin related wallets and
  1010. 36:43all kinds of things uh not on the chain
  1011. 36:46so the chain is safe but the apps that
  1012. 36:49are on top for everything have become an
  1013. 36:52issue now way put this out again we're
  1014. 36:55starting to see the AI adopters again
  1015. 36:58earnings grow so I think you're going to
  1016. 37:00keep saying the profit margins go higher
  1017. 37:03and again I showed this last week I'm
  1018. 37:04going to say it Again, the market has
  1019. 37:06never been cheaper or at least in the
  1020. 37:09last 30 plus years with the PEG ratio
  1021. 37:12down here. So, everyone who's negative
  1022. 37:14goes, "Yeah, but this is peak uh
  1023. 37:16earnings." Well, revisions are still
  1024. 37:19going higher and we haven't even got to
  1025. 37:22a point yet where this is falling and
  1026. 37:23profit margins usually start to come
  1027. 37:25over first. So, we're It's not like
  1028. 37:27we're getting anywhere on this. If
  1029. 37:29profit margins are going higher, guys, I
  1030. 37:32don't know how if expenses don't need to
  1031. 37:34go higher. I I like again we're at the
  1032. 37:36productivity boom point. So I wrote this
  1033. 37:39paper this week. We're going to move
  1034. 37:40into the crypto section again very soon.
  1035. 37:43You guys are seeing this now. About 30%
  1036. 37:45is now crypto because this is in a bull
  1037. 37:47market and this is where I want to focus
  1038. 37:48my attention. So I wrote this on what I
  1039. 37:50believe is the most important conversion
  1040. 37:52in the world. The Robin Hood convergent.
  1041. 37:54Robin Hood is basically the epicenter of
  1042. 37:57AI
  1043. 37:59crypto macro nexus. It is a trady
  1044. 38:03company that has been somewhat involved
  1045. 38:06in crypto but not making a ton of money
  1046. 38:07on it relative to its other businesses.
  1047. 38:10And it's an agentic company. So you guys
  1048. 38:13should read this for the subscribers who
  1049. 38:15got it. Uh and for the institutions that
  1050. 38:18are getting this uh but won't be at some
  1051. 38:22point soon unless you're subscribers.
  1052. 38:24Um, again, I'm starting to go through
  1053. 38:27this in in a very big way, and you
  1054. 38:29should go read about Robin Hood because
  1055. 38:30it is your entree into understanding how
  1056. 38:33to start thinking about it from an
  1057. 38:35earnings perspective. The chain is now
  1058. 38:37earnings. Bernstein sees 31% upset for
  1059. 38:39Robin Hood as fees top Salana.
  1060. 38:43Robin Hood chain fees record 6 million
  1061. 38:45in daily fees. Robin Hood chain has only
  1062. 38:47been live for two months and it's
  1063. 38:48already starting to rerate the onchain
  1064. 38:50market. Arbitum, which is basically the
  1065. 38:53app on top of it, surges 7.87% on Robin
  1066. 38:56Hood chain. Boom. Uh, Arbitron. What are
  1067. 39:00they? Oh, see, here's the news. You can
  1068. 39:03go see it. Now, if you want to go see if
  1069. 39:05Tradfi is covering it, Arbitron Wall
  1070. 39:07Street Journal did not match any news
  1071. 39:09results. Shocking. You're not going to
  1072. 39:11learn anything from anyone unless you
  1073. 39:13come to me uh from the Trady
  1074. 39:16perspective. You can go to CoinDesk. You
  1075. 39:18can go to crypto which are great places
  1076. 39:19for this but I'm looking at it from the
  1077. 39:21angle of merging the three of them tradi
  1078. 39:24plus AI plus crypto which I think is
  1079. 39:26critical especially for Robin Hood the
  1080. 39:29AI agent site is the most important side
  1081. 39:31uh if you didn't see they strike a deal
  1082. 39:33with crypto.com the merge is continuing
  1083. 39:37you want to be long stuff that looks
  1084. 39:39like this is the pers like I said last
  1085. 39:42week if you don't know what pers are
  1086. 39:44please go pay attention tokenized stocks
  1087. 39:47we continue to move forward on this.
  1088. 39:51Robin Hood spoke at the Goldman Sachs
  1089. 39:53technology conference
  1090. 39:55and here's the five big takeaways.
  1091. 39:57Aentic trading is going mainstream. This
  1092. 39:59is from Robin Hood. So this is from
  1093. 40:00Vlad, a hedge fund in your pocket. Well,
  1094. 40:02I'm showing you guys how to do that.
  1095. 40:04Robin Hood chain is about global
  1096. 40:05financial infrastructure. Yes, it is
  1097. 40:07tokenization.
  1098. 40:08I believe if you have an advantage, if
  1099. 40:10you get into tokenization ahead of
  1100. 40:12everyone on the Trady side as they start
  1101. 40:14to jump into this, which they will
  1102. 40:16because they will need to make alpha,
  1103. 40:18you're getting in front of the hordes of
  1104. 40:20money if the Clarity Act goes through.
  1105. 40:23And it's not a given that it won't go
  1106. 40:25through and I'll be in DC in two weeks.
  1107. 40:27I'm hopeful that by then they've already
  1108. 40:28solved this, but
  1109. 40:30the Clarity Act has huge implications
  1110. 40:32from a spike perspective for this and
  1111. 40:34from an institution of credibility with
  1112. 40:36pension funds and things like that. So
  1113. 40:38there's catalysts coming up. Robin Hood
  1114. 40:40wants the entire financial relationship.
  1115. 40:42Trading, crypto, retirement, banking.
  1116. 40:44This is really critical, guys.
  1117. 40:45Prediction markets are a gateway
  1118. 40:46product. The bigger message. Robin Hood
  1119. 40:48is evolving from a brokerage app to AI
  1120. 40:51native tokenized financial platform
  1121. 40:53bringing it sounds a lot like Apple to
  1122. 40:56me. NASDAQ invests 100 million in
  1123. 40:58Kraken, eyeing the 2027 launch of
  1124. 41:01tokenized stock trading. Everyone's
  1125. 41:03preparing. US Bank test stable coins.
  1126. 41:07Visa stable coin card business is
  1127. 41:08exploding. European banks plan to launch
  1128. 41:11a euro stable coin on Ethereum. This is
  1129. 41:12all this week, guys. Coinbase says clear
  1130. 41:15US crypto rules are coming with or
  1131. 41:16without Senate approval. Brian Armstrong
  1132. 41:18said the Clarity Act is ready to get a
  1133. 41:20yes vote. Patrick Wit said the same
  1134. 41:22thing. The probabilities for this year
  1135. 41:26of getting it through are still below
  1136. 41:2820%. But that doesn't mean they can't
  1137. 41:30get a yes vote. So, this is where I'm
  1138. 41:32going to bring you to the final part.
  1139. 41:33William
  1140. 41:35Mogayier
  1141. 41:36gave a TED talk. I think this was 2014,
  1142. 41:392015, could be 2016.
  1143. 41:43Um, no, no offense to William or Bill.
  1144. 41:46He's very boring. I love finding boring,
  1145. 41:48smart people. Um, because that means
  1146. 41:50people don't listen to him. I highly
  1147. 41:52recommend everyone goes listen this in
  1148. 41:54TED talks. It's as usual 17 minutes.
  1149. 41:57This is again a decade ago. him talking
  1150. 41:59about Ethereum and the important of
  1151. 42:01Ethereum and the importance of the
  1152. 42:02blockchain.
  1153. 42:06He did this a long time ago. Give me an
  1154. 42:07assessment on how correct his vision was
  1155. 42:09in what's happening today. He was 8 to
  1156. 42:1110 on direction but closer to 510 on
  1157. 42:13specific information which I think both
  1158. 42:15of those is good to get something
  1159. 42:16especially when when crypto has had so
  1160. 42:18much regulatory problems to actually
  1161. 42:20have an ability of guessing where things
  1162. 42:21were going to be and to get an eight out
  1163. 42:23of 10 on direction, five out of 10 on
  1164. 42:25specific is still good. where he was too
  1165. 42:27aggressive was removing the intermediary
  1166. 42:29and this is Robin is a perfect example.
  1167. 42:32I think this is the way to go through
  1168. 42:34it. He didn't know about stable coins.
  1169. 42:36The biggest thing he didn't see was AI
  1170. 42:39agents and this ironically they may
  1171. 42:42finally make his thesis work. That's the
  1172. 42:44whole point. When you listen to this, I
  1173. 42:46want you to connect AI agents to it.
  1174. 42:48This is the way I bring you guys alpha.
  1175. 42:50This is the way that you learn about
  1176. 42:52this and you get the connection of AI
  1177. 42:53agents because everything that he said
  1178. 42:56was assuming humans would use this. It's
  1179. 42:58not for humans.
  1180. 43:02This is what his original vision was. He
  1181. 43:04was a peer-to-peer guy. He was a Napster
  1182. 43:05guy. He talks at item. I'm going to go
  1183. 43:08through some other things because he
  1184. 43:09gives the best talk on valuation for
  1185. 43:11crypto. And I've been asked by so many
  1186. 43:13people inside and outside of crypto how
  1187. 43:15to value it. What happened instead? said
  1188. 43:17the middleman stayed in but AI and
  1189. 43:19crypto merge is changing it. So the AI
  1190. 43:21side is different from this. It is
  1191. 43:24critical for the success. It speeds
  1192. 43:26things up. So here's the other one. This
  1193. 43:28is now about 10 months ago. Ethereum's
  1194. 43:31endgame.
  1195. 43:33How to value Ethereum.
  1196. 43:36He talks about his experience in the
  1197. 43:381990s and that's critical to this. Now,
  1198. 43:42I don't know a lot of tech people from
  1199. 43:44the 1990s who are still involved in the
  1200. 43:47market. They either made too much money,
  1201. 43:49they blew up, and they moved to
  1202. 43:50something else. It's been a young
  1203. 43:51person's game since the iPhone came in
  1204. 43:54for the most part. But there are people
  1205. 43:55that were around. And his point is, we
  1206. 43:58don't know how we we don't know how to
  1207. 44:00value Ethereum. It's a new model the
  1208. 44:03same way there was a new model when we
  1209. 44:04had to figure out how to value the
  1210. 44:06internet. And at first, it was eyeballs.
  1211. 44:08Had nothing to do with earnings.
  1212. 44:10This will get into my experience with
  1213. 44:12Amazon as we go through. Then revenue
  1214. 44:14finally started to matter in here. Then
  1215. 44:16SAS metrics came, but that's a long
  1216. 44:18time. That's 25 years before the metrics
  1217. 44:21came up. There was no SAS metrics. And
  1218. 44:23that's his point. So here they are.
  1219. 44:27Now it's about other things. So with
  1220. 44:29Ethereum and for all of crypto, there
  1221. 44:32will be revenue. There are network
  1222. 44:34effects. There's flow of money. And this
  1223. 44:35is what I talk about all the time.
  1224. 44:38There's ecosystem value, there's
  1225. 44:39productive assets, there's so many
  1226. 44:41things and it's programmable. You have
  1227. 44:43to go listen to this both podcasts. Just
  1228. 44:46listen to it. If you don't believe at
  1229. 44:48that point, it's fine. But then I want
  1230. 44:49you to go back to Amazon
  1231. 44:52in 1997 when it was a lowly online
  1232. 44:55bookstore to where it is now. Not now.
  1233. 44:58This is 2013. The reason I'll tell you
  1234. 45:00why I put this up there. So from here to
  1235. 45:02here,
  1236. 45:0427,000%
  1237. 45:07Ethereum right now from its lows is up
  1238. 45:10about 3,000%.
  1239. 45:13I really do believe we're going to see a
  1240. 45:15similar number at a similar time where
  1241. 45:17someone who's in Tradfi is finally going
  1242. 45:19to give up and say, "I don't understand
  1243. 45:21how to value this thing." I didn't
  1244. 45:22understand how to value Amazon at this
  1245. 45:24point. I was a macro person focused on
  1246. 45:26oil. I had made most of my money trading
  1247. 45:29on being either bearish or bullish oil
  1248. 45:32being bearish or bullish Brazil, China,
  1249. 45:34whatever. That was the places that I
  1250. 45:36made money. My best year was 2008 and
  1251. 45:39that was being short the US financial
  1252. 45:42system being what I was called as a
  1253. 45:44perma bear and being along emerging
  1254. 45:45markets and along commodities in a super
  1255. 45:48cycle.
  1256. 45:49I didn't understand this. And so when
  1257. 45:52this went back during the great
  1258. 45:53financial crisis, I figured for sure
  1259. 45:54this would go to zero because it didn't
  1260. 45:56make money. Well, it not only didn't,
  1261. 45:58but it came back faster. And when it
  1262. 46:00broke out, every single time it looked
  1263. 46:02head and shoulders, I can remember this
  1264. 46:04one. I showed it recently. It was
  1265. 46:05breaking down during the EU crisis. Went
  1266. 46:07right back up. Guys, its PE never ever
  1267. 46:12was below 100. It didn't even have a PE
  1268. 46:14for most of this. So, I went out to
  1269. 46:16Silicon Valley and say, "How can this
  1270. 46:17work?" I went to Singularity University.
  1271. 46:19That's when exponential started for me.
  1272. 46:21That's when my mind changed. That is 12
  1273. 46:23years ago. That is why I can talk about
  1274. 46:24crypto. That's why I'm using AI because
  1275. 46:26I know you're fading the inevitable.
  1276. 46:30When did Amazon finally reach a point of
  1277. 46:32having a PE
  1278. 46:34Tada. Below 100 for at least two
  1279. 46:36quarters.
  1280. 46:38Not till 2017, 2018. It wasn't until
  1281. 46:422018 that it finally broke below for two
  1282. 46:44quarters in a row. Again, most of the
  1283. 46:46time before that, it didn't even have
  1284. 46:48earnings. You had to measure it on
  1285. 46:50eyeballs. Yes, truthful. So, when you're
  1286. 46:52trying to figure out how to value crypto
  1287. 46:54by the time it gets to the point where
  1288. 46:56it's no longer a ridiculous price,
  1289. 47:00you've already lost 27,000%
  1290. 47:03in 2013. I never wanted to make that
  1291. 47:05mistake again. For you mutual fund
  1292. 47:07people, for you people on the hedge fund
  1293. 47:09world, don't make the same mistake with
  1294. 47:10crypto if you still want to be involved
  1295. 47:13in markets from a bull market
  1296. 47:15perspective. That's my take on the
  1297. 47:18situation. He wrote a he has a new book
  1298. 47:20coming out, Trust Shift. I believe trust
  1299. 47:22is worth a significant amount of money
  1300. 47:24and I believe Ethereum is the trust
  1301. 47:26model. So you guys can just go through
  1302. 47:28it if you listen to his two things. Love
  1303. 47:30to hear from you, but I would do that.
  1304. 47:33AI makes trust an economic asset. I'm
  1305. 47:36100% sure that the blockchain needs
  1306. 47:39every real world asset to go on there to
  1307. 47:41keep its value. Trust is becoming an
  1308. 47:42issue. It is absolutely something to
  1309. 47:44measure things on. And anyone who wants
  1310. 47:46trust, it's going to have to go on
  1311. 47:47Ethereum. It has to final two slides. I
  1312. 47:51will be in DC. This is the presentation
  1313. 47:54I'm giving to a variety of people in DC,
  1314. 47:57not just crypto people, congressmen, the
  1315. 47:59whole thing. The time mismatch. So if
  1316. 48:01you want to join me, Freedom Tech DC
  1317. 48:032026, September 23rd, 22nd, and 23rd, I
  1318. 48:07will be down there Monday night, Tuesday
  1319. 48:08night, Wednesday night, coming back
  1320. 48:10Thursday. Happy to meet up with people
  1321. 48:13that are there in DC if I have the time.
  1322. 48:16The Bitcoin Policy Institute's been
  1323. 48:18great on this. I will be a pub key with
  1324. 48:20them. This is one of the slides I will
  1325. 48:22be showing which again this is
  1326. 48:23tokenization. This is the bridge between
  1327. 48:25the digital world over here and again
  1328. 48:29the linear V, the exponential V, the
  1329. 48:32linear V. If you want to stay over here,
  1330. 48:34it's great. But this tokenized world is
  1331. 48:36coming. You're going to cross the bridge
  1332. 48:37at some point. Why not take a little
  1333. 48:39mini jump over here and start spending
  1334. 48:41your time here? And the Wall Street
  1335. 48:43Journal had Bitcoin's overlooked
  1336. 48:45promise, freedom. Again, for everyone
  1337. 48:47who lost someone or was affected by 911.
  1338. 48:51Uh, I'm thinking of you. It's a 24 25
  1339. 48:54year anniversary
  1340. 48:56of an emotional day for me. It tires me
  1341. 48:58whenever this day comes up to think
  1342. 49:00about. I am grateful for knowing Shawn
  1343. 49:02and I'm grateful for you guys watching
  1344. 49:04me every week. Uh, hit the subscribe
  1345. 49:06button, reach out, do whatever, but most
  1346. 49:08importantly, hug the ones you love today
  1347. 49:10and I'll see you guys next week.

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