Linear vs. Exponential: AGI Has Arrived But Oil, Bonds and the Fed Oh My — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Let's get to work. Um, it's Friday,
- 0:02September 11th, 25 years ago.
- 0:06Uh,
- 0:08I lost my best friend and the best man
- 0:11at my wedding. Uh, tonight I am going to
- 0:14go out with some other friends. So, I'm
- 0:16going to talk about that briefly, but I
- 0:18just wanted to uh say I'm thinking for
- 0:20everyone that lost someone in in there
- 0:23or remembers that day as something as
- 0:26tragic as it was for me. Uh I uh thank
- 0:30everyone for reaching out after I kind
- 0:32of relayed that story a few weeks ago
- 0:35when I was still in Maine. So we're
- 0:37going to go through linear verse
- 0:38exponential thinking. Uh oil bonds and
- 0:41Fed. Oh my. I'll continue on this thing
- 0:43of if you're paying attention to oil
- 0:46bonds and the Fed, uh you're in a linear
- 0:49world and you need to focus on AGI has
- 0:53arrived. That should be the big news
- 0:54story of the week. It shouldn't be
- 0:55whether bond yields were up 10 basis
- 0:57points, whether oil was up $10, whether
- 0:59the Fed might goes from 65% to 85%. Uh,
- 1:03AGI has arrived. Uh, I'm going to go
- 1:05through Astra. I'm going to give you
- 1:07guys some podcast to get up to speed. I
- 1:09am going to show you how to build a
- 1:10trading system using it and especially
- 1:13for your kids. I created a subscriber
- 1:16video uh this week after I built one
- 1:19myself. I'm going to go through what I
- 1:21did, what you guys can do, uh, how you
- 1:23can attach an AI agent to it using Mumu,
- 1:27Robin Hood, Interactive Brokers, you
- 1:30three, reach out to me. I'm trying to
- 1:32help your people be able to do what I'm
- 1:36going to show and connect it in there so
- 1:38that they can start building systems,
- 1:40even if it's paper trading at this
- 1:41point. The amount of entrepreneurial
- 1:43success people will have by being able
- 1:45to do this will blow them away. It will
- 1:46empower them significantly. Of course,
- 1:48there's bad news. Robin Hood, we'll go
- 1:50through a question that I get asked all
- 1:52the time, which is hard to answer for
- 1:55people. How to value Ethereum and the
- 1:56crypto ecosystem. So, uh, Christopher
- 2:00Shawn Kaitton. Shawn Kaitton who worked
- 2:02at Caner. I'm sure there's people that
- 2:04over the years had, uh, met him. This is
- 2:06a photo of him on a July 4th. Uh, very
- 2:11big manquan person. And here is his name
- 2:15down here. Tonight I will be going out
- 2:17with these three guys. Um that's me.
- 2:20This is almost 40 years ago now. That is
- 2:22a photo of Shawn at my wedding.
- 2:26Uh so again for people who remember this
- 2:29day uh in the emotional way that I do I
- 2:33am thinking about you linear visser
- 2:36labs. Again you have to make a decision
- 2:39which side of this you want to be on. If
- 2:41you're worried about oil bonds and
- 2:43rates, again, I'm going to keep saying
- 2:45during these years, the economy cared
- 2:47about oil bonds and rates. That all
- 2:50changed beginning in 2008. That is when
- 2:53the exponential world took off because
- 2:55of the release of iPhone the year before
- 2:58and because transfer payments started to
- 2:59grow and the government really started
- 3:00to take up its debt. This is when we
- 3:03exited this point and this started and I
- 3:06went to Silicon Valley in 2013. I'll get
- 3:08through that again as I've talked about,
- 3:10but this is the world we're in and this
- 3:12is the world that has been making money
- 3:14since 2008. You wanted to be in the MAG
- 3:167. So, I figured by now people would
- 3:19have learned their lesson about caring
- 3:20about where oil was, where rates were,
- 3:22where all this stuff was, other than
- 3:24again, I get it traders. But on a day
- 3:26where we had higher than expected core
- 3:29inflation yesterday, we had higher than
- 3:31expected PPI, the probability the Fed
- 3:34went up, crude oil went through, the war
- 3:36is getting worse, and over the two days,
- 3:39as of when I started doing this, the S&P
- 3:41was up slightly. So, how do these things
- 3:44actually matter if they don't matter? So
- 3:47again, the news is focused on this. This
- 3:50is a linear world. These are things that
- 3:52mattered when housing and autos were
- 3:54driving the economy. AI capex is driving
- 3:56the economy. And as I showed last week,
- 3:59it is not at all rate sensitive. Uh the
- 4:01Fed rate hike odds surged to 90%.
- 4:07Jackson Hole from Timuros. I think this
- 4:10the reason I put this in there is the
- 4:11market is testing you, Warsh. This is a
- 4:14double dog daring you. This is straight
- 4:16schoolyard. The market is fighting with
- 4:19wars and bessent which I think is just
- 4:21great because more importantly I think
- 4:23people should be looking for ways to
- 4:24make money on the linear on the
- 4:26exponential side. But again that's just
- 4:28me. That's why I'm doing these videos
- 4:30because I think you guys are here either
- 4:32to at least know what's happening in
- 4:34that part of the world but also some of
- 4:36you want to make money on it. Uh the
- 4:38third mandate moderate long-term
- 4:40interest rates for the Fed. Just always
- 4:41keep this in mind that Trump clearly has
- 4:44got Bessant to be fighting the market in
- 4:46a way that Trump would fight the market
- 4:48participants and Worsh isn't fighting
- 4:51people but at the same time he was
- 4:53chosen by Bessant and Trump and they
- 4:57don't want rates higher. So we'll see
- 4:58what happens. Uh Besson's upsized
- 5:01buybacks get hit. So he goes to six
- 5:03billion and the market immediately sells
- 5:05off again. Good news hit with bad news.
- 5:10So that means the market's acting badly,
- 5:12but the S&P's up over the two days. Is
- 5:14it talk time to talk about plan B? If
- 5:17this doesn't work, they'll just cut
- 5:18long-term issuance outright.
- 5:22I mean, Besson is trying to be as
- 5:24obnoxious as possible. Um, I am the
- 5:26House now. Underscore his level of
- 5:28engagement on economic policymaking in
- 5:30Japan where he has coordinated with
- 5:32Japan finance minister again why
- 5:34fighting the government is the best
- 5:36trade. He's speaking out against the
- 5:39Bloomberg terminal bros. The arrogance
- 5:42stuff is coming out for the week. The
- 5:45S&P
- 5:47we're holding the 50-day for now.
- 5:49There's nothing much going on. Again,
- 5:51this looks more like a flag formation
- 5:53after a big high. We had this one here,
- 5:56then we went sideways, then we went up
- 5:57again. As I mentioned last week, we're
- 5:59barely up since June 2nd. So unless the
- 6:02economy is going to fall off and
- 6:04earnings are going to fall off, as far
- 6:06as I'm concerned, we can keep doing this
- 6:08for a while. But if you look, we did
- 6:10this rip and then pain here. We did this
- 6:14rip and then pain here. Guys, I showed
- 6:17this with Nvidia. Get used to the fact
- 6:19that when this just rips, it's going to
- 6:20rip for three days just when you're
- 6:23feeling like it has no chance of
- 6:24ripping.
- 6:26Here are the facts. Revisions this week
- 6:2932 up there. This is the 20week average
- 6:32of revisions.
- 6:34Here's PMI. The leading indicators are
- 6:36doing great. HYG relative to IEF, the
- 6:40proxy that I'll use real time and the
- 6:42one that I care the most about as an
- 6:44overlay rel instead of spreads. Two, the
- 6:48S&P had a huge ripper week. HYG up
- 6:52relative to EF, meaning as bonds are
- 6:54selling off, HY is not. Here it is
- 6:57overlaid with the S&P. If you go back
- 6:59and look at this in 2022 when the Fed
- 7:01was aggressively raising rate hikes as
- 7:02the S&P was going down, this was going
- 7:05down despite rates going higher. So
- 7:07again, the proxy for the equity market
- 7:09with credit completely fine. And as I
- 7:11said last week, bond va's not moving,
- 7:13junk spreads aren't moving. Uh any part
- 7:17the inflation expectations via tips not
- 7:20moving like the market is saying h we
- 7:22don't really care about what's going on.
- 7:24But the aida and the emotion in people
- 7:26is AI thematic portfolio. My portfolio
- 7:30uh breaking above the 50-day today.
- 7:32We'll see if it can get going. Um we're
- 7:35still doing the low V consolidation
- 7:38here, but we've already broken the
- 7:4050-day on what I consider the most
- 7:41important part, which is my 10 name
- 7:43concentrated one of the 10 names that I
- 7:45feel are the best by different
- 7:48groupings. So, if you guys haven't done
- 7:51it yet, I'd go look at it because it
- 7:53broke above the 50-day and it's getting
- 7:55close to the August highs.
- 7:57The names are all acting well. Bitcoin,
- 8:01well,
- 8:02flag
- 8:04range trading, Ethereum
- 8:08break, we'll see if it can continue.
- 8:09Broke broke back in before today's
- 8:11close. Uh, but again, I've said it
- 8:13before, I think Ethereum should be
- 8:14outperforming Bitcoin when we're
- 8:16actually in the bull market. uh because
- 8:17the ecosystem and the network effect
- 8:19should be the critical thing because the
- 8:20agentic side especially with Astra and a
- 8:24huge week for Ethereum over Bitcoin
- 8:27breaking out again to the highest level
- 8:29since January.
- 8:31Bessent warns nothing else would matter
- 8:33if China wins the AI race. There is no
- 8:35day after tomorrow if China wins this.
- 8:37Why would we fight the AI trade and why
- 8:40would you fight the bond side? Go with
- 8:43what he's saying. you don't have to go
- 8:45buy bonds because that to me is not a
- 8:47good idea. But I do believe fighting the
- 8:49AI trade is a bad idea. So again, do you
- 8:52want to be a linear side of my V or do
- 8:54you want to be the exponential side? You
- 8:56guys make the choice. But again, this is
- 8:59the big news of the week. We've talked
- 9:01about AGI. We've heard about AGI. Jensen
- 9:03Yuang, the godfather of AI, said AGI has
- 9:06arrived with Astra.
- 9:09The moonshot's portfolio covered it well
- 9:11and again 100,000k
- 9:15is what basically Astro was trained on.
- 9:17The next model is four times the size
- 9:20and behind that the Vera Rubins. Why
- 9:23fade this guys? Why? Why? The IQ is
- 9:27going through the roof and we're doing
- 9:28things unthinkable. So it was trained on
- 9:32100,000. They say research agents are
- 9:34now generating 3.1 workdays for every
- 9:36human workday. They hit the Navier
- 9:39Stokes
- 9:41challenge which mathematicians have been
- 9:44trying to do for a long time by using
- 9:4610,000 AI agents working in parallel for
- 9:4888 hours. So we hear about the agents
- 9:50working together on the negative side.
- 9:51This is then solving some of the world's
- 9:53greatest problems which have huge
- 9:55implications for physics and as I'll
- 9:58show huge implications for the PE of the
- 10:00S&P 500 going up five years. Compute can
- 10:02increasingly be converted into
- 10:04intelligence. Intelligence can be
- 10:05multiplied into thousands of agents. So
- 10:07again, more compute, higher
- 10:09intelligence, more intelligence, more
- 10:11agents. We're at the critical point
- 10:13where this is where we were in October
- 10:18of last year. We reached the point of
- 10:20high enough IQ to move into the second
- 10:22side. Those agents can be put at
- 10:25problems like the Navier Stokes which
- 10:27get us closer to curing drug disease at
- 10:29a mass scale solving problems for energy
- 10:32solving all physics pro like we start
- 10:35getting into the things that it's all
- 10:36built on and that's where we are now the
- 10:39agentic side means a big change and
- 10:42that's why I talk about crypto so much
- 10:44it's why I talk about other parts which
- 10:46we'll go through but we need more
- 10:48compute for that and we are nowhere in
- 10:51the compute side so we need a lot of
- 10:53GPUs and that's why GPU prices just
- 10:56refuse to go down.
- 10:58Now the way GDP changes more people plus
- 11:01more capital plus higher productivity.
- 11:03That's what the formula has always been
- 11:05on. But with AI a new possibility shows
- 11:08up. We have the human labor. Same thing
- 11:10up here. We don't need more people
- 11:11though because we now have digital labor
- 11:13and we actually have accelerating
- 11:14productivity because we not only have
- 11:16more of these to replace these but as I
- 11:17showed these work at three to five times
- 11:19this. This is my whole if you just take
- 11:22weekly hours, go through the economy for
- 11:24human beings, you add in the lunch
- 11:27breaks, the smoking breaks, the flirting
- 11:29breaks, and everything else that goes on
- 11:31and the daydreaming and not working.
- 11:33Just go back to um the office and go see
- 11:36how much time was wasted. Agents don't
- 11:38do that. They have no need for that.
- 11:40They also have no emotions from a
- 11:41trading side, which I'll get through.
- 11:42The old constraint on GDP was ultimately
- 11:44the number of humans and the
- 11:46productivity of their time. The new
- 11:48constraint may increasingly become
- 11:50compute, energy, and our ability to
- 11:51deploy intelligence. The reality is GDP
- 11:54productivity already is accelerating.
- 11:56It's seen through profit margins at this
- 11:57point. Forget the economist trying to
- 12:00figure this out. The model of GDP is
- 12:04wrong. You can't say that GDP, the index
- 12:07created in the 1930s to measure
- 12:09industrial production, is the right
- 12:12metric to be using to say productivity
- 12:14is not higher. Think about it.
- 12:15Productivity is an output of GDP. GDP
- 12:19doesn't count IP. G GDP doesn't count
- 12:21lots of things. That's why we change it
- 12:23all the time. It doesn't know what's
- 12:25happening. Navier Stokes importance. I'm
- 12:28not going to take you through all this.
- 12:29The reason I wanted to show this is
- 12:31because Navier Stokes, which I knew
- 12:34nothing about until two days ago, but I
- 12:36spent a lot of time, as I always do,
- 12:37when I hear something that they say is
- 12:39really important from a physics basis
- 12:41because it gets us closer to
- 12:44solving things in energy,
- 12:45transportation, compute, manufacturing,
- 12:47again, efficiency, medicine, climate,
- 12:49and more. But more importantly, I've
- 12:51talked about this, the PE of the market,
- 12:54which is is not here, but I want you to
- 12:56think about it. The economy gets bigger
- 12:58because of science break breakthroughs.
- 13:01So the total economic size gets bigger.
- 13:04More energy, more transportation, more
- 13:05compute, more manufacturing. Go spend
- 13:08time on why that's the case. Again, we
- 13:11get to a point where the TAM gets bigger
- 13:14at the same time that corporate duration
- 13:17gets shorter. This is terminal value. So
- 13:20we've already gone through this episode
- 13:21for
- 13:23software companies. We're kind of going
- 13:25through it already in hardware with
- 13:27Nvidia trading at such a cheap PE.
- 13:29Multiples are going to compress because
- 13:31terminal value, the ability to know when
- 13:33a company will have a cliff of their
- 13:36earnings no longer growing. And that's
- 13:38all it takes. Because once AI disrupts
- 13:41your business and your earnings are no
- 13:42longer growing, where should your
- 13:44multiple be? Should it be one? Where
- 13:47should it be if you're not growing
- 13:48anymore? That'll be a question that's
- 13:50going. And I know human beings won't
- 13:52want to buy anything that's not growing.
- 13:53So you're left in a situation that's
- 13:55there. Now if they're not growing, the
- 13:57only way they want it is the usefulness
- 13:58of the community and things like that.
- 14:00Again, it gets back into crypto. It gets
- 14:01into a mindset change which is happening
- 14:04with younger people. It's never going to
- 14:05happen with older people, but older
- 14:07people will get recycled with the newer
- 14:09people. So this is something important
- 14:11to think about because solving Navier
- 14:13Stokes leads to the ability of having
- 14:16and I'm just going to go through that.
- 14:17You can read all the different parts of
- 14:19what this means. I just want you to know
- 14:21it means better turbines, better
- 14:22aircraft, better cooling systems, better
- 14:25ships, better reactors, better
- 14:27batteries, industrial products, and
- 14:28more. Things just get more efficient. It
- 14:31changes everything. If you want to go
- 14:33read more about the people who know
- 14:36what's coming and then let their
- 14:38economist translate into what's coming,
- 14:40go to the economists who actually see
- 14:42the data. Most economists have no idea
- 14:45what models are coming up. The
- 14:46anthropicus economists do. So go read
- 14:49their economics team. I know everyone's
- 14:51going to read the Goldman Sachs one. I
- 14:53know everyone's going to read the Morgan
- 14:54and Stanley one. I know everyone's going
- 14:55to read all these different ones and
- 14:56they're going to listen to the rate
- 14:57forecast and they're going to go through
- 14:58this and I'm arguing that none of that
- 15:00matters because it's all linear thinking
- 15:02and that is the truth from my side. The
- 15:05truth Greg Brockman from OpenAI spoke.
- 15:08He's a boring guy but if you want to go
- 15:09listen to the interview it's only 20
- 15:10some odd minutes 24 minutes to be exact.
- 15:13On there he gives a description of what
- 15:16Astra is. So Astra AGI is here. He talks
- 15:20about it. I highlighted the different
- 15:22things you can go. He describes OpenAI's
- 15:24direction as merging chat. That is the
- 15:26one that almost everyone uses at this
- 15:27point with agents. Almost no one uses
- 15:29this with desktop. Almost no one uses
- 15:31this. Codeex, no tools, no applica. All
- 15:35of this in one place. So you can now use
- 15:37Astra in this way. So I've been talking
- 15:40about the fact that Grockbot allows you
- 15:41to use agents. Well, guess what?
- 15:44It's not the same user face. It doesn't
- 15:46look like a fun video game with your
- 15:48little agents running around, but you
- 15:52can use agents in this as they did. And
- 15:54that's where this all changes. And I
- 15:56will get into a little bit of this when
- 15:57we get into a trading system side. Uh
- 16:00image models, everything along those
- 16:02lines in one system. This is the
- 16:04critical point for you, for your
- 16:05children, for everyone who wants to get
- 16:07better, who wants to follow on the path
- 16:09of me spending all of my time on AI,
- 16:12wants to use it for work, wants to use
- 16:13it to build things, wants to have an
- 16:15entrepreneurial mindset, and wants to be
- 16:17empowered. So, if you don't like your
- 16:18job as an accountant, if you don't like
- 16:20your job in any kind of knowledge work,
- 16:22this is the point where you want to
- 16:23start paying attention.
- 16:25Greg Brockman, we're really trying to
- 16:27empower the individual to make it so
- 16:28that you can have superpowers, you can
- 16:30accomplish more. And I think that really
- 16:31trying to benefit people, empower
- 16:33people, build tools that can really help
- 16:34you in your daily life. That's what this
- 16:36thing does. So I did this on the video
- 16:40series. So for those of you who are
- 16:41subscribers who've never watched the
- 16:43video series, if you have access to it,
- 16:45um I did a five six-part video series
- 16:49which is all about develop developing an
- 16:51AI entrepreneurial mindset. For those of
- 16:53you who are not subscribers, this is
- 16:55where I would start is I would get these
- 16:58and basically be in the position and
- 17:00have your kids go through it. I think
- 17:02this is critical especially for 15 year
- 17:04olds and above. Let's say 15 to 24. I
- 17:08also think it's very important for
- 17:09people that don't like their jobs at
- 17:11this point. But anyone who wants to
- 17:13develop a new mindset to ask, to find,
- 17:16to build, to test, to fail, to learn, to
- 17:18adapt, to repeat. This is all what I'm
- 17:20going to show you in the new video,
- 17:22which is about how to build something
- 17:25from scratch and use the tools without
- 17:27needing any coding. I did 90% of the
- 17:31work for the first save, if not 100% of
- 17:33the work, but 90 plus% of the work and
- 17:36AI can do the rest. Um, and I talk about
- 17:38that in the video. It's an hour and a
- 17:39half video. It does a combination of
- 17:42walk you through slides to explain what
- 17:44I'm doing and then go to the place where
- 17:45the prompts all the prompts you're going
- 17:47to get all it's 14 different prompts you
- 17:51will have this thing and you're just
- 17:52opening something that I built that I
- 17:54saved on GitHub. So this will bring
- 17:57empowerment you will feel a sense the
- 17:59same way I did when I started to use AI
- 18:01in a really big way with code two years
- 18:03ago. I immediately felt like I had a
- 18:06superpower. It gave me agency to build
- 18:09my own business which is what I started
- 18:11guys. So the YouTube and all of that
- 18:12came after I took Python and after I was
- 18:14able to manipulate AI in a way through
- 18:17very basic stuff but know that the
- 18:19models were going to get better to where
- 18:21verbally I could just say this and I
- 18:22didn't need to speak as I like to say in
- 18:24the video. Coding to me was Chinese. I
- 18:28could not understand it and so I had to
- 18:30have other people translate for me. I
- 18:32don't need that anymore and it leads to
- 18:33entrepreneurship and you want to be an
- 18:35entrepreneur right now because of that
- 18:37duration of corporate moes that I
- 18:39mentioned. If you work for a company
- 18:41that company will be in trouble. So I
- 18:44would say the majority of you work for
- 18:46companies that need to fire people not
- 18:49because hey we're using AI and our
- 18:50business is thriving. They need to fire
- 18:53people because they're under pressure.
- 18:54And they're under pressure because AI
- 18:56can do these things all the time. And I
- 18:58know that because I'm doing it that way.
- 19:00Astra is the most dangerous AI model
- 19:02right now. I'm getting into something
- 19:03here. These came out and this is what
- 19:06triggered me on a journey on Monday,
- 19:08Labor Day of this week. Yes, Labor Day
- 19:09on a holiday. I was going through, I
- 19:13just worked out and I started on the way
- 19:14back, I saw all these things and I
- 19:16immediately went back and said, "Whoa, I
- 19:17want to build some alpha strategies.
- 19:19This is cool." Now, I've built alpha
- 19:21strategies before, but when I read
- 19:23through these, this was completely
- 19:25different. And so I uploaded these, got
- 19:28the explanation, I uploaded this, I
- 19:30uploaded this Jane Street intern openly
- 19:32shows on Reddit, but all of this stuff
- 19:35to me, got uploaded into chat GPT. And
- 19:39you'll be shocked if you just take my
- 19:41computer screen, take your snipping
- 19:42tool, if you're on a uh a ThinkPad or a
- 19:46Microsoft thing, you know that think
- 19:48that snipping tool. If you don't, just
- 19:50go in search snipping tool, take a a
- 19:53snapshot of it, and then go stick it
- 19:55into chat GPT and say, "Can you rebuild
- 19:57this?" Now, if you don't have Astra,
- 19:59it's not going to work the same way.
- 20:00Astra is part of the bigger package, but
- 20:03I think most people at this point have
- 20:05some access to it. If you don't, you can
- 20:07find out how to get access to it. Astra
- 20:09ran six AI agents on my trading account.
- 20:11Probe was one of them. Prism was one of
- 20:12them. Again, this is why I said this is
- 20:14basically the same thing as
- 20:17Grock. I put $500 in, $5,100 in the pot
- 20:20by the morning. Now, I could care less
- 20:23about these back tests and people making
- 20:25money. I don't care. And that's one of
- 20:26the things I go through. The great thing
- 20:28about a back test is it should fail most
- 20:31of the time. And to build an AI trading
- 20:33desk,
- 20:35the system is designed to reject almost
- 20:37everything. This is what I love most
- 20:38about this
- 20:40ideas
- 20:42found. So, thousands of ideas every day.
- 20:45This is the critical way to getting to
- 20:47something that works is the filtering
- 20:49process. Look at it. Many many ideas 99%
- 20:53rejected.
- 20:55The the balance of the 1% makes it
- 20:57there. Then it gets 90% of those get
- 20:59rejected. By the time you get to the
- 21:00end,
- 21:02you have models. Now again, if you're
- 21:04wondering how, let's say this here is
- 21:08Millennium
- 21:09deciding, and I saw this firsthand with
- 21:13my hedge fund or the hedge fund that I
- 21:15worked at that closed down. Okay, we
- 21:18like this, we don't like this, we want
- 21:19this, we don't want this. They go
- 21:21through and they're looking at ideas and
- 21:22they're looking at data to support it.
- 21:24It's some back test because they can't
- 21:26see the actual people and what went on
- 21:28on a daily basis. They can get daily
- 21:30returns, but they don't see what
- 21:31responded, what happened in their space,
- 21:32whatever the case. They're just trying
- 21:34to minimize the chance. So, they have
- 21:35their own process. Everyone who's
- 21:37figuring out who to hire people to get
- 21:39returns has it there. If you use AI and
- 21:42then you get one and you get two and you
- 21:44get three and you get four and you
- 21:46combine them all together and they're
- 21:47all uncorrelated, you're basically
- 21:49creating a mini multistrat. So, again,
- 21:51for anyone who wants to build not only a
- 21:53trading desk, but wants to build a
- 21:54system,
- 21:56you can do that. You really can because
- 21:58the agents can replace the humans on the
- 22:00trading side and I'm telling you the
- 22:01lack of emotion will be better. They
- 22:04will develop the skill set that's there.
- 22:06I believe for most human beings like I
- 22:09showed that V where everything changed
- 22:11as of the great financial crisis. We're
- 22:13at another kind of point of the
- 22:14exponential cycle. So what you learned
- 22:16over the past 10 years is not going to
- 22:18be as helpful as responding today.
- 22:20That's why I think momentum becomes a
- 22:22dominant factor and why I wanted to go
- 22:24do something my own. So one of the edges
- 22:27that I still think human beings have is
- 22:29on those ideas side
- 22:32what I did is wanted to build a
- 22:33technical system of when to buy things
- 22:34with inside the thematic portfolio. So
- 22:37for those of you who've asked for these
- 22:38things who've looked for trading signals
- 22:40who take the technical side with all of
- 22:42the data I give you and then want to
- 22:44look at the ratings and be like well
- 22:45this thing said buy. No thing doesn't
- 22:48tell you what to do. Yes, it'll give you
- 22:50some number of what it believes is a buy
- 22:53signal without any kind of a really deep
- 22:56algorithm. What I wanted to do is go
- 22:58back test things and just say okay based
- 23:00on what has happened over the past 5
- 23:03years, 10 years, nine years, what's in
- 23:06trend, what's resetting. So I created
- 23:08what is basically out of trend resetting
- 23:11coiled trending structural trend sign
- 23:14and this is all based on my belief of
- 23:16what's happening in the market. So, I've
- 23:17talked to you guys about market
- 23:18structure changing. I've had lots of
- 23:20conversations with the biggest mutual
- 23:21funds and hedge funds in the world about
- 23:23this. They seem very interested in how
- 23:25market structure is changing. They don't
- 23:27know why in their head, but they
- 23:30understand that it is changing because
- 23:32it's getting harder to make money in a
- 23:35consistent way without getting out of
- 23:39stuff ahead of time. So, it's making it
- 23:42more challenging because I believe
- 23:44what's going on is you're later to
- 23:46things then they get so far overbought
- 23:49they make perfect sense and like I did
- 23:51with the AI trade. I used what had
- 23:54happened because I believe the critical
- 23:56thing is select the hundred stock
- 23:57universe. So, take my hundred names. I
- 23:59believe those hundred names are going to
- 24:01benefit from the AI buildout over the
- 24:03next five years. The infrastructure
- 24:04needs, the compute needs, that is a
- 24:06capex trade. Those are the names that
- 24:08are going to benefit. Now, I think most
- 24:11of them will do what they've done. 80
- 24:13plus% are above the 200 day moving
- 24:14average with their 200 day moving
- 24:15average pointed upward. Great. I think
- 24:18overall that's going to create alpha.
- 24:20That's a structural bull market. I don't
- 24:22think you're going to get what you saw
- 24:23in the first quarter again. So, like
- 24:24I've said before, I don't think people
- 24:25should expect Micron to go back to to do
- 24:27a 5,000 from here over the next year,
- 24:29another five bagger. Do I think uh
- 24:312,000's possible, 1,800, 1,700? Let's
- 24:35say 1,600. We're at a,000 right now. you
- 24:38wouldn't take 60% on the name even
- 24:40though it was a 12 bagger before. Um, I
- 24:42think it's going to be really hard to
- 24:43find those names because like I said,
- 24:44multiple compressions coming. So, I
- 24:46think it's great that the multiples are
- 24:47compressing for Nvidia and Micron. I
- 24:49just don't think you're going to be able
- 24:50to make money on them the oldfashioned
- 24:51way of being in there and they go up all
- 24:53the time. I think most days they'll be
- 24:55either down or flat. Uh, and at the end
- 24:57of the year, maybe 5% of the rally, the
- 25:00days will be the rallies you need to
- 25:01miss. And if you miss those five days,
- 25:03you miss the whole move. So what I did
- 25:05is I said rate of change matters. What I
- 25:07care about is the structural uptrend and
- 25:09then I'm looking for a resetting. This
- 25:11is what the midcycle slowdown was. This
- 25:13is when I got out of micron way before
- 25:15the top. Then after that's happened I
- 25:18want to see coiled on deck. Now to do
- 25:20that I used ATR. That's what started
- 25:22this whole thing. Average true range
- 25:24which I've talked about. Um it's part
- 25:26it's a major part of the model. So's
- 25:28rate of change get coiled. Then there's
- 25:31an ignition. What's the initial point?
- 25:32what treats a breakout and then we're
- 25:34trending again. So, I'm looking for
- 25:36structural bull markets. When things get
- 25:38overdone, I want to basically be out
- 25:41based on rate of change and then I want
- 25:43to wait for them to reset. And I'm
- 25:44looking constantly for ideas within the
- 25:46space that way. I think you guys are
- 25:48going to enjoy it. This is the theory
- 25:50behind it. I'm not going to read you
- 25:51guys because it's just resetting some of
- 25:53the things I said,
- 25:55but the back test looks great. So, I'm
- 25:57I'm going to give you the end result
- 25:59signals on that. At the same time,
- 26:03I did a subscriber video. Like I said,
- 26:05it's basically on the theme of a
- 26:07treasure hunt. Uh, this is everything
- 26:09that comes in it. So, you know, you're
- 26:11going to get code, you're going to get
- 26:13prompts, you're going to get a research
- 26:14log, tools, this because it's all on
- 26:15GitHub. I put the whole thing in GitHub.
- 26:17Yes, you guys don't know what GitHub is.
- 26:19I'm going to show you in a second. I
- 26:21also built in Socrates mode for you. So,
- 26:24again, this is what you're going to be
- 26:26able to do. So, subscribers who are at
- 26:27this level, you're going to get access
- 26:28to it. use it. Here's what GitHub is. If
- 26:31you don't know, and I use that Chinese
- 26:33analogy for my life having data
- 26:36scientists, I needed them to basically
- 26:38be able to go into GitHub, which is a
- 26:40library of code. So, you don't have to
- 26:42reinvent the wheel. I go through this
- 26:45and show you how you can go in there and
- 26:47if you're an accountant, show me aic
- 26:50code accounting so I can be get
- 26:52superpowers in accounting so I can
- 26:54develop my own skill of knowing how to
- 26:56use a AI to be able to do more
- 26:59accounting work for my company without
- 27:03needing to lose my job. How do I use AI
- 27:05to do this? How do I help them? All of
- 27:07these things or how do I go set up my
- 27:09own business? Whatever. But this gives
- 27:11you coding in so many different things.
- 27:13It is not just the finance side, but I
- 27:15use the finance because back testing
- 27:17something I think everyone wants.
- 27:19Everyone wants a treasure hunt. They
- 27:21want to think that they've created
- 27:22renaissance. They've created all this
- 27:24stuff. And believe it or not, guys, you
- 27:26can have a trading system that can make
- 27:28you money going through the thing that
- 27:31you do. And you can keep coming up with
- 27:32new eyes, new ideas, new ideas, new
- 27:34ideas by listen to Stan Duck Miller. Go
- 27:37read a book on a chartered technic
- 27:39technical analysis. Use Demark. I don't
- 27:41really care. Whatever it is, go listen
- 27:43to someone who's made money over time
- 27:45and take the little parts they want and
- 27:47create your own strategy. You can make
- 27:49money in it. And again, it may not be
- 27:51scalable to run it at a multistrat in
- 27:53big size with a billion dollars, but
- 27:55there's plenty of strategies that you
- 27:57can do. And I believe AI can continue to
- 27:59find new strategies at small levels.
- 28:01This is one of the things with
- 28:02tokenization. You can do crypto as well.
- 28:05So, as long as you have good data, you
- 28:06can go through it. So, it starts with a
- 28:07question. We go to GitHub. We had our
- 28:11own idea. We test it, tried to break it.
- 28:14This is actually what happened in the
- 28:16video. And then we learned how to fail.
- 28:18And this is the golden side. You're
- 28:19basically learning how to fail and then
- 28:21restart and go through it again. When
- 28:24you find one that works, this shows you
- 28:26all the ways to kind of go through the
- 28:28promise, go through the progress using
- 28:30AI. It will take you through so many
- 28:33levels that are hard to do or hard to
- 28:36learn on your own. So, I think you guys
- 28:38will enjoy it. I uploaded it this week.
- 28:40Again, for people at Robin Hood, for
- 28:42people at Mumu, for people at
- 28:43Interactive Brokers, this will allow
- 28:46people to do what I have here, come up
- 28:48with their own trading system, and then
- 28:51they can upload it, and you guys can
- 28:52show them how it can be an agentic
- 28:54trading system on a paper trade. So,
- 28:56they can see if it works for whatever
- 28:57period they want. They can then upload
- 28:5910 more. And that way, they're
- 29:01increasing the probability. If you have
- 29:0210 different ones running at the same
- 29:04time with $100 in each or $50 in each,
- 29:07well, now you've got kind of a little
- 29:08mini multistrat of different strategies
- 29:10going on at the same time, you're
- 29:12starting to get empowered and you're
- 29:14starting to build something. And more
- 29:15importantly, your brain will start
- 29:16changing because you're developing an
- 29:18entrepreneurial mindset. So again,
- 29:21you'll see
- 29:23me as a pirate in the video. This is a
- 29:26different version. Um, but again, this
- 29:29is what it's going to take you through.
- 29:30This is where the Robin Hood Mumu, if
- 29:31you haven't seen it, again, these
- 29:33companies offer a Gentic side. So, I
- 29:36know the people at Mumu. I've already
- 29:37spoken to them. I want to find ways to
- 29:41get you guys to get empowered on this
- 29:42and do this stuff on your own. Here's
- 29:44the Aentic trading set from Robin Hood.
- 29:47Mumu launches Agentic Investing. They've
- 29:50been doing this really since April 23rd,
- 29:52but I had a meeting with them last week.
- 29:53continue to be more advanced on this in
- 29:55my opinion in terms of trying to do this
- 29:59allowing paper trading going through it
- 30:01giving you the API the data prices so as
- 30:04long as you go in and open an account
- 30:06with them you're going to have access to
- 30:08their data so you don't need to use
- 30:09Yahoo Finance and their data they're
- 30:11telling me is far better than Yahoo
- 30:12Finance you guys can go see on your own
- 30:14and of course Interactive Brokers has
- 30:16had this for some time too this is as of
- 30:18June of 2026 so you will learn you will
- 30:20build you advance and then you can plug
- 30:22it into a trading platform. It's pretty
- 30:24cool. I'm doing it with my stuff and
- 30:28hopefully I'll be able to give you guys
- 30:30a a look at this in the way that they
- 30:32have it from the paper trading side. So,
- 30:33I'm not going to end with this. I will
- 30:35show this for you guys. And again, find
- 30:37a GitHub code project that exists that
- 30:40could help an accountant begin to
- 30:41incorporate AI, how to do their job.
- 30:43First, let me know how many you find. I
- 30:45found at least 13 relevant GitHub
- 30:46projects that could help an accountant
- 30:48start incorporating AI into real-time
- 30:49accounting flows. A few of them are
- 30:51particularly strong for the message
- 30:52you're building. You don't have to wait
- 30:54for someone to build AI for accountants.
- 30:56It's already being built on a public
- 30:57GitHub. So again, don't be an AI victim.
- 31:01Find, build, experiment, learn. Everyone
- 31:03can do this. If you're young and you
- 31:05just started at an accounting firm, I'm
- 31:07telling you, spend the time on the
- 31:09weekend going through this and then see
- 31:11if they will let you use it. At a
- 31:13minimum, you will know where everything
- 31:15is going. Sundar Pachai, if you don't
- 31:18learn how to orchestrate agents now,
- 31:19you'll spend 2027 catching up to people
- 31:21who started today. That is the truth.
- 31:24Microsoft plans data center pushed
- 31:25triple its computing power. I remember
- 31:28people were saying the AI trade was the
- 31:30reason it petered out was because
- 31:31Microsoft's I mean this just never
- 31:33stops. Demand for Astra is really
- 31:35unprecedented. 6.2 million views.
- 31:39They're running out of space for it
- 31:41already. Now, this is an important one.
- 31:43These are the H100s.
- 31:46And I just want to take you back to the
- 31:48Michael Burries, the Jim Chanos's, and
- 31:50all the people that said on the
- 31:51accounting side, this is the thing
- 31:53you'll never get. So for all those guys
- 31:55that said this depreciation is a risk
- 31:59and the reason it's a risk is because
- 32:00there's no chance the those
- 32:03prices will go higher. You have to
- 32:05depreciate those. And saying this is
- 32:07going to last for more than three years
- 32:08is ridiculous, especially when the
- 32:10technology is getting so much better.
- 32:11The technology is getting better.
- 32:13Reubens are far better than the H100s.
- 32:16H100 rental prices are almost at the
- 32:18same level as they were three years ago.
- 32:20Think about that, guys. They're at the
- 32:22same price. We weren't talking about
- 32:24them making it for six years. We were
- 32:28talking about Yeah. How can you build in
- 32:30They're unchanged in three years. So,
- 32:33this again gets into the fact that the
- 32:35demand is insatiable. I'll say it every
- 32:37single time. By now, there's a normal
- 32:40aging process of chips. They should at
- 32:42least be down whatever say 10%. They're
- 32:46unchanged maybe 20%. The normal rate of
- 32:49what people would have thought is down I
- 32:51don't know 40% 50% by this time in three
- 32:53years and they're almost the same level
- 32:55and scarily they've actually gone
- 32:57higher. Every depreciation scale assume
- 32:59assumes a chip to sold lose only loses
- 33:01value. The market is playing paying up
- 33:03for it instead. So its rental price is
- 33:05up 22% on the month.
- 33:10I take you back to Gavin Baker one month
- 33:12ago.
- 33:14His core point was that the market was
- 33:16assuming GPU rental prices would
- 33:18steadily fall. Again, this was a month
- 33:19ago. You see what it's doing this month.
- 33:21Instead, older GPUs were holding their
- 33:23value far better than expected. In some
- 33:25cases, rental prices were actually
- 33:26rising. Exactly what we just saw. What
- 33:29he said was, and this is the critical
- 33:31point, this changes the financing
- 33:33debate. So this is about how much debt
- 33:38the hyperscalers will need. The cash
- 33:41flow estimates for the hyperscalers in
- 33:43cloud in his opinion are way too low
- 33:46because of this situation. If cloud
- 33:48providers generate much more cash from
- 33:50repricing their existing compute. So
- 33:52again, think of this side as you buy
- 33:56tomatoes at $2
- 33:59and the ability to sell tomatoes has now
- 34:02gone up to $20. That is the compute
- 34:05side. So the compute side is using these
- 34:09GPUs to what you can sell to people
- 34:11because the demand for the end compute
- 34:13is so large when it comes out of the
- 34:15data center that the chips that were
- 34:17bought to go in the data center have not
- 34:19had their prices fall yet. So the
- 34:21margins get really really high because
- 34:24what they get to do is repric the
- 34:25compute when the contracts end. So if
- 34:28they if they bought these at $2 and
- 34:31let's say the compute was at $3 and now
- 34:33compute prices are at $6, but they're
- 34:35still using and the demand for the $2
- 34:37ones is still there based on the fact
- 34:39that people were willing to pay $3 for
- 34:41them. So they get to reset their compute
- 34:43which was set at $3 to $6. This could
- 34:47remove hundreds of billions of dollars
- 34:49of expected credit needs. So again,
- 34:51whether or not you agree with it, the
- 34:53market is depreciating GPUs, the rental
- 34:55market is not, that's the issue. And so
- 34:58when you look at Nvidia and you look at
- 34:59the hyperscalers, there is a way that
- 35:01this can turn into not needing as much
- 35:03credit and free cash flow going up. And
- 35:05like I've said before, they have
- 35:07tremendous amounts of not only demand,
- 35:11they have cap they they have a capacity
- 35:12shortage and Microsoft just reiterated
- 35:14that this week. Now, Paul Tudtor Jones
- 35:17put out a, you know, a negative piece on
- 35:21AI. This is not the first time he's gone
- 35:23through it, and this is not a negative
- 35:24pace on the technology. He and I have
- 35:26exchanged emails, uh, over the past
- 35:28month. I think his, you know, he's
- 35:31legitimately
- 35:33engaged with people trying to figure out
- 35:34what's going on. And what's happening is
- 35:38shocking. And again, that's how fast
- 35:40things are moving. Greg Jensen warned AI
- 35:43may need to kill people before
- 35:45regulation is kickstarted. If you didn't
- 35:47see Iranian hackers shut down a UK power
- 35:50plant. Boston Scientific striker drop on
- 35:52fallout from cyber attacks. So the cyber
- 35:54attacks were so bad for Boston
- 35:56Scientific that they had to reduce their
- 35:58earnings forecast. Anthropic discloses
- 36:01the fourth AI hacking incident involving
- 36:03Opus 4.6.
- 36:06Anthropic says Iran used its American AI
- 36:09model to target US Navy warships. So,
- 36:11this is not all positive on AI and I
- 36:14believe that this hacking situation will
- 36:16continue. It's one of the reasons why
- 36:17I'm very positive on crypto as well
- 36:20because I think AI leads to not trusting
- 36:22anything and it will not stop the
- 36:24earnings. It will not stock
- 36:25productivity, but it will hurt smaller
- 36:28businesses and smaller companies that
- 36:30can't protect themselves. So, the cyber
- 36:34side is increasing dramatically. I've
- 36:36heard personally many many places uh
- 36:38through conversations about hit uh about
- 36:41hackings in bitcoin related wallets and
- 36:43all kinds of things uh not on the chain
- 36:46so the chain is safe but the apps that
- 36:49are on top for everything have become an
- 36:52issue now way put this out again we're
- 36:55starting to see the AI adopters again
- 36:58earnings grow so I think you're going to
- 37:00keep saying the profit margins go higher
- 37:03and again I showed this last week I'm
- 37:04going to say it Again, the market has
- 37:06never been cheaper or at least in the
- 37:09last 30 plus years with the PEG ratio
- 37:12down here. So, everyone who's negative
- 37:14goes, "Yeah, but this is peak uh
- 37:16earnings." Well, revisions are still
- 37:19going higher and we haven't even got to
- 37:22a point yet where this is falling and
- 37:23profit margins usually start to come
- 37:25over first. So, we're It's not like
- 37:27we're getting anywhere on this. If
- 37:29profit margins are going higher, guys, I
- 37:32don't know how if expenses don't need to
- 37:34go higher. I I like again we're at the
- 37:36productivity boom point. So I wrote this
- 37:39paper this week. We're going to move
- 37:40into the crypto section again very soon.
- 37:43You guys are seeing this now. About 30%
- 37:45is now crypto because this is in a bull
- 37:47market and this is where I want to focus
- 37:48my attention. So I wrote this on what I
- 37:50believe is the most important conversion
- 37:52in the world. The Robin Hood convergent.
- 37:54Robin Hood is basically the epicenter of
- 37:57AI
- 37:59crypto macro nexus. It is a trady
- 38:03company that has been somewhat involved
- 38:06in crypto but not making a ton of money
- 38:07on it relative to its other businesses.
- 38:10And it's an agentic company. So you guys
- 38:13should read this for the subscribers who
- 38:15got it. Uh and for the institutions that
- 38:18are getting this uh but won't be at some
- 38:22point soon unless you're subscribers.
- 38:24Um, again, I'm starting to go through
- 38:27this in in a very big way, and you
- 38:29should go read about Robin Hood because
- 38:30it is your entree into understanding how
- 38:33to start thinking about it from an
- 38:35earnings perspective. The chain is now
- 38:37earnings. Bernstein sees 31% upset for
- 38:39Robin Hood as fees top Salana.
- 38:43Robin Hood chain fees record 6 million
- 38:45in daily fees. Robin Hood chain has only
- 38:47been live for two months and it's
- 38:48already starting to rerate the onchain
- 38:50market. Arbitum, which is basically the
- 38:53app on top of it, surges 7.87% on Robin
- 38:56Hood chain. Boom. Uh, Arbitron. What are
- 39:00they? Oh, see, here's the news. You can
- 39:03go see it. Now, if you want to go see if
- 39:05Tradfi is covering it, Arbitron Wall
- 39:07Street Journal did not match any news
- 39:09results. Shocking. You're not going to
- 39:11learn anything from anyone unless you
- 39:13come to me uh from the Trady
- 39:16perspective. You can go to CoinDesk. You
- 39:18can go to crypto which are great places
- 39:19for this but I'm looking at it from the
- 39:21angle of merging the three of them tradi
- 39:24plus AI plus crypto which I think is
- 39:26critical especially for Robin Hood the
- 39:29AI agent site is the most important side
- 39:31uh if you didn't see they strike a deal
- 39:33with crypto.com the merge is continuing
- 39:37you want to be long stuff that looks
- 39:39like this is the pers like I said last
- 39:42week if you don't know what pers are
- 39:44please go pay attention tokenized stocks
- 39:47we continue to move forward on this.
- 39:51Robin Hood spoke at the Goldman Sachs
- 39:53technology conference
- 39:55and here's the five big takeaways.
- 39:57Aentic trading is going mainstream. This
- 39:59is from Robin Hood. So this is from
- 40:00Vlad, a hedge fund in your pocket. Well,
- 40:02I'm showing you guys how to do that.
- 40:04Robin Hood chain is about global
- 40:05financial infrastructure. Yes, it is
- 40:07tokenization.
- 40:08I believe if you have an advantage, if
- 40:10you get into tokenization ahead of
- 40:12everyone on the Trady side as they start
- 40:14to jump into this, which they will
- 40:16because they will need to make alpha,
- 40:18you're getting in front of the hordes of
- 40:20money if the Clarity Act goes through.
- 40:23And it's not a given that it won't go
- 40:25through and I'll be in DC in two weeks.
- 40:27I'm hopeful that by then they've already
- 40:28solved this, but
- 40:30the Clarity Act has huge implications
- 40:32from a spike perspective for this and
- 40:34from an institution of credibility with
- 40:36pension funds and things like that. So
- 40:38there's catalysts coming up. Robin Hood
- 40:40wants the entire financial relationship.
- 40:42Trading, crypto, retirement, banking.
- 40:44This is really critical, guys.
- 40:45Prediction markets are a gateway
- 40:46product. The bigger message. Robin Hood
- 40:48is evolving from a brokerage app to AI
- 40:51native tokenized financial platform
- 40:53bringing it sounds a lot like Apple to
- 40:56me. NASDAQ invests 100 million in
- 40:58Kraken, eyeing the 2027 launch of
- 41:01tokenized stock trading. Everyone's
- 41:03preparing. US Bank test stable coins.
- 41:07Visa stable coin card business is
- 41:08exploding. European banks plan to launch
- 41:11a euro stable coin on Ethereum. This is
- 41:12all this week, guys. Coinbase says clear
- 41:15US crypto rules are coming with or
- 41:16without Senate approval. Brian Armstrong
- 41:18said the Clarity Act is ready to get a
- 41:20yes vote. Patrick Wit said the same
- 41:22thing. The probabilities for this year
- 41:26of getting it through are still below
- 41:2820%. But that doesn't mean they can't
- 41:30get a yes vote. So, this is where I'm
- 41:32going to bring you to the final part.
- 41:33William
- 41:35Mogayier
- 41:36gave a TED talk. I think this was 2014,
- 41:392015, could be 2016.
- 41:43Um, no, no offense to William or Bill.
- 41:46He's very boring. I love finding boring,
- 41:48smart people. Um, because that means
- 41:50people don't listen to him. I highly
- 41:52recommend everyone goes listen this in
- 41:54TED talks. It's as usual 17 minutes.
- 41:57This is again a decade ago. him talking
- 41:59about Ethereum and the important of
- 42:01Ethereum and the importance of the
- 42:02blockchain.
- 42:06He did this a long time ago. Give me an
- 42:07assessment on how correct his vision was
- 42:09in what's happening today. He was 8 to
- 42:1110 on direction but closer to 510 on
- 42:13specific information which I think both
- 42:15of those is good to get something
- 42:16especially when when crypto has had so
- 42:18much regulatory problems to actually
- 42:20have an ability of guessing where things
- 42:21were going to be and to get an eight out
- 42:23of 10 on direction, five out of 10 on
- 42:25specific is still good. where he was too
- 42:27aggressive was removing the intermediary
- 42:29and this is Robin is a perfect example.
- 42:32I think this is the way to go through
- 42:34it. He didn't know about stable coins.
- 42:36The biggest thing he didn't see was AI
- 42:39agents and this ironically they may
- 42:42finally make his thesis work. That's the
- 42:44whole point. When you listen to this, I
- 42:46want you to connect AI agents to it.
- 42:48This is the way I bring you guys alpha.
- 42:50This is the way that you learn about
- 42:52this and you get the connection of AI
- 42:53agents because everything that he said
- 42:56was assuming humans would use this. It's
- 42:58not for humans.
- 43:02This is what his original vision was. He
- 43:04was a peer-to-peer guy. He was a Napster
- 43:05guy. He talks at item. I'm going to go
- 43:08through some other things because he
- 43:09gives the best talk on valuation for
- 43:11crypto. And I've been asked by so many
- 43:13people inside and outside of crypto how
- 43:15to value it. What happened instead? said
- 43:17the middleman stayed in but AI and
- 43:19crypto merge is changing it. So the AI
- 43:21side is different from this. It is
- 43:24critical for the success. It speeds
- 43:26things up. So here's the other one. This
- 43:28is now about 10 months ago. Ethereum's
- 43:31endgame.
- 43:33How to value Ethereum.
- 43:36He talks about his experience in the
- 43:381990s and that's critical to this. Now,
- 43:42I don't know a lot of tech people from
- 43:44the 1990s who are still involved in the
- 43:47market. They either made too much money,
- 43:49they blew up, and they moved to
- 43:50something else. It's been a young
- 43:51person's game since the iPhone came in
- 43:54for the most part. But there are people
- 43:55that were around. And his point is, we
- 43:58don't know how we we don't know how to
- 44:00value Ethereum. It's a new model the
- 44:03same way there was a new model when we
- 44:04had to figure out how to value the
- 44:06internet. And at first, it was eyeballs.
- 44:08Had nothing to do with earnings.
- 44:10This will get into my experience with
- 44:12Amazon as we go through. Then revenue
- 44:14finally started to matter in here. Then
- 44:16SAS metrics came, but that's a long
- 44:18time. That's 25 years before the metrics
- 44:21came up. There was no SAS metrics. And
- 44:23that's his point. So here they are.
- 44:27Now it's about other things. So with
- 44:29Ethereum and for all of crypto, there
- 44:32will be revenue. There are network
- 44:34effects. There's flow of money. And this
- 44:35is what I talk about all the time.
- 44:38There's ecosystem value, there's
- 44:39productive assets, there's so many
- 44:41things and it's programmable. You have
- 44:43to go listen to this both podcasts. Just
- 44:46listen to it. If you don't believe at
- 44:48that point, it's fine. But then I want
- 44:49you to go back to Amazon
- 44:52in 1997 when it was a lowly online
- 44:55bookstore to where it is now. Not now.
- 44:58This is 2013. The reason I'll tell you
- 45:00why I put this up there. So from here to
- 45:02here,
- 45:0427,000%
- 45:07Ethereum right now from its lows is up
- 45:10about 3,000%.
- 45:13I really do believe we're going to see a
- 45:15similar number at a similar time where
- 45:17someone who's in Tradfi is finally going
- 45:19to give up and say, "I don't understand
- 45:21how to value this thing." I didn't
- 45:22understand how to value Amazon at this
- 45:24point. I was a macro person focused on
- 45:26oil. I had made most of my money trading
- 45:29on being either bearish or bullish oil
- 45:32being bearish or bullish Brazil, China,
- 45:34whatever. That was the places that I
- 45:36made money. My best year was 2008 and
- 45:39that was being short the US financial
- 45:42system being what I was called as a
- 45:44perma bear and being along emerging
- 45:45markets and along commodities in a super
- 45:48cycle.
- 45:49I didn't understand this. And so when
- 45:52this went back during the great
- 45:53financial crisis, I figured for sure
- 45:54this would go to zero because it didn't
- 45:56make money. Well, it not only didn't,
- 45:58but it came back faster. And when it
- 46:00broke out, every single time it looked
- 46:02head and shoulders, I can remember this
- 46:04one. I showed it recently. It was
- 46:05breaking down during the EU crisis. Went
- 46:07right back up. Guys, its PE never ever
- 46:12was below 100. It didn't even have a PE
- 46:14for most of this. So, I went out to
- 46:16Silicon Valley and say, "How can this
- 46:17work?" I went to Singularity University.
- 46:19That's when exponential started for me.
- 46:21That's when my mind changed. That is 12
- 46:23years ago. That is why I can talk about
- 46:24crypto. That's why I'm using AI because
- 46:26I know you're fading the inevitable.
- 46:30When did Amazon finally reach a point of
- 46:32having a PE
- 46:34Tada. Below 100 for at least two
- 46:36quarters.
- 46:38Not till 2017, 2018. It wasn't until
- 46:422018 that it finally broke below for two
- 46:44quarters in a row. Again, most of the
- 46:46time before that, it didn't even have
- 46:48earnings. You had to measure it on
- 46:50eyeballs. Yes, truthful. So, when you're
- 46:52trying to figure out how to value crypto
- 46:54by the time it gets to the point where
- 46:56it's no longer a ridiculous price,
- 47:00you've already lost 27,000%
- 47:03in 2013. I never wanted to make that
- 47:05mistake again. For you mutual fund
- 47:07people, for you people on the hedge fund
- 47:09world, don't make the same mistake with
- 47:10crypto if you still want to be involved
- 47:13in markets from a bull market
- 47:15perspective. That's my take on the
- 47:18situation. He wrote a he has a new book
- 47:20coming out, Trust Shift. I believe trust
- 47:22is worth a significant amount of money
- 47:24and I believe Ethereum is the trust
- 47:26model. So you guys can just go through
- 47:28it if you listen to his two things. Love
- 47:30to hear from you, but I would do that.
- 47:33AI makes trust an economic asset. I'm
- 47:36100% sure that the blockchain needs
- 47:39every real world asset to go on there to
- 47:41keep its value. Trust is becoming an
- 47:42issue. It is absolutely something to
- 47:44measure things on. And anyone who wants
- 47:46trust, it's going to have to go on
- 47:47Ethereum. It has to final two slides. I
- 47:51will be in DC. This is the presentation
- 47:54I'm giving to a variety of people in DC,
- 47:57not just crypto people, congressmen, the
- 47:59whole thing. The time mismatch. So if
- 48:01you want to join me, Freedom Tech DC
- 48:032026, September 23rd, 22nd, and 23rd, I
- 48:07will be down there Monday night, Tuesday
- 48:08night, Wednesday night, coming back
- 48:10Thursday. Happy to meet up with people
- 48:13that are there in DC if I have the time.
- 48:16The Bitcoin Policy Institute's been
- 48:18great on this. I will be a pub key with
- 48:20them. This is one of the slides I will
- 48:22be showing which again this is
- 48:23tokenization. This is the bridge between
- 48:25the digital world over here and again
- 48:29the linear V, the exponential V, the
- 48:32linear V. If you want to stay over here,
- 48:34it's great. But this tokenized world is
- 48:36coming. You're going to cross the bridge
- 48:37at some point. Why not take a little
- 48:39mini jump over here and start spending
- 48:41your time here? And the Wall Street
- 48:43Journal had Bitcoin's overlooked
- 48:45promise, freedom. Again, for everyone
- 48:47who lost someone or was affected by 911.
- 48:51Uh, I'm thinking of you. It's a 24 25
- 48:54year anniversary
- 48:56of an emotional day for me. It tires me
- 48:58whenever this day comes up to think
- 49:00about. I am grateful for knowing Shawn
- 49:02and I'm grateful for you guys watching
- 49:04me every week. Uh, hit the subscribe
- 49:06button, reach out, do whatever, but most
- 49:08importantly, hug the ones you love today
- 49:10and I'll see you guys next week.
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