Lecture Tim Dyson,iss,The Hague,The Netherlands,23 April 2009 part 8.mov — Transcript

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1. 0:00as an outstanding ecologic environment
2. 0:01very different from the world average a
3. 0:04very fertile soil and the supply of
4. 0:06water no major of a geographical
5. 0:09stickles normanton no dessert so the
6. 0:12only problem of the Dutch was control
7. 0:14the water flows which they did with his
8. 0:16successor now you wouldn't be able to do
9. 0:19that in the places where Tim Dyson was
10. 0:22working in a middle of India know where
11. 0:25I was working the silent part of Africa
12. 0:27there is no water there so you don't
13. 0:30have the same problems of Kusum and if
14. 0:34you go to mountains if you go to read
15. 0:36areas you will have a very different
16. 0:38problem of course you expect very
17. 0:40different population densities and
18. 0:44now there is another argument about
19. 0:46Holland is that the more problems you
20. 0:48have to solve the more you if solutions
21. 0:51will find but if you look at all the
22. 0:54places in the world where you have a
23. 0:55similar environment I mean the deltas of
24. 0:58the big rivers you take the ganga palma
25. 1:00put river in in bengal it take the Nile
26. 1:03Delta in Egypt you take the Niger Delta
27. 1:05in Nigeria this has never happened
28. 1:08only here in all and people were able to
29. 1:11have this incredible innovation in
30. 1:15techniques that made possible the
31. 1:18petition goes on a small piece of land
32. 1:20so that the argument developed by
33. 1:23establish a weapon on number for the
34. 1:25people that the eye of population
35. 1:28density it leads to innovation but i
36. 1:30think has been wrong in most of the
37. 1:32cases that over the last 50 years 5,000
38. 1:35years this gives me so far very very
39. 1:37long time we still are facing the
40. 1:39limitation of
41. 1:41that multi described the carrying
42. 1:43capacity of the land and also the
43. 1:45management of the economy what I'm doing
44. 1:48in time here fine okay
45. 1:51next question that I would like to raise
46. 1:53today is what happens beyond food limits
47. 1:56I mean multis was focusing always and
48. 1:58food and all the societies that he had
49. 2:01studied had major a problem with food
50. 2:05whether it was in the e
51. 2:07in the northern of Europe in the city
52. 2:10area any studied everything he could a
53. 2:13good fine in
54. 2:15America's in OC Enya and everywhere
55. 2:19but the natural between the relationship
56. 2:22between population and environment has
57. 2:24been changing very quickly in the recent
58. 2:26past as a result of the population
59. 2:28explosion so there are new limits
60. 2:31appearing now for plans for land animals
61. 2:33and for fishes luckily so far we have
62. 2:36been able to find new solutions
63. 2:38increasing League for plans raising
64. 2:41animals in factories and developing fish
65. 2:43farms but the lipid limits have been
66. 2:45pushed forward but the still exists them
67. 2:48now what water is becoming a major issue
68. 2:51in about half of the world not here that
69. 2:53for sure but if you go to Africa are in
70. 2:56most places to South Asia and many
71. 2:58places even I mean Latin America and
72. 3:01some places
73. 3:02water is becoming a major issue are for
74. 3:05the the population not only because of
75. 3:08the population explosion of course but
76. 3:10also because of the increasing demand
77. 3:11for agriculture on in some cases for the
78. 3:15industry the demand for energy is also
79. 3:18increasing the Matta Kelly the fossil
80. 3:20fuels are limited and other sources of
81. 3:23energy are either very expensive or are
82. 3:26in competition with agriculture and the
83. 3:28land space is limited and is becoming
84. 3:31again a source of conflicts the century
85. 3:34ago in Africa land was still available
86. 3:36and if you didn't have a land here you
87. 3:39move 50 kilometers away and you will
88. 3:41find freelander and it was free from
89. 3:43migrants and settlers this is no longer
90. 3:45the case it's finished in any part of
91. 3:47the world with a very very few
92. 3:49exceptions some
93. 3:51next slide please
94. 3:53so here we are reaching the core of the
95. 3:56new relationship between population and
96. 3:58development on population and
97. 4:00environment we are reaching a stage
98. 4:01where any large change affects the
99. 4:04global ecological equilibrium and this
100. 4:07global dimension is new at the time when
101. 4:10what is what is booked all the
102. 4:12limitations were local they were not
103. 4:14global them
104. 4:15are listed here a few of the major
105. 4:17issues and this game again in
106. 4:20presentation the greenhouse effect
107. 4:22induced by human activity which is the
108. 4:24main source of global warming and which
109. 4:26has so many consequences for the
110. 4:28environment the land degradation and
111. 4:30pollution as a consequence of over
112. 4:32utilization and destroy all cultures the
113. 4:36negative in else impact for humans as
114. 4:39well as for animals of fertilizers and
115. 4:41pesticides
116. 4:42necessary to meet the demand for food as
117. 4:44well as a toxic waste is produced by the
118. 4:48industry i will also to mention the
119. 4:51price of land which has been increasing
120. 4:53very quickly and is likely to increase
121. 4:55even more in the future in some places
122. 4:58the price of land for housing is so high
123. 5:01that no one could afford to buy a piece
124. 5:02of land with an average income you
125. 5:04needed excellent so many high income in
126. 5:06order to to be able to acquire a piece
127. 5:09of land which was not the case a century
128. 5:12ago
129. 5:13agricultural land is also becoming an
130. 5:15issue for many of our populated
131. 5:17countries such as China Japan Korea or
132. 5:20Saudi Arabia and those countries are now
133. 5:23buying or renting land in other
134. 5:25countries which raised numerous
135. 5:27political issues as exemplified by the
136. 5:30resin coup d'etat in Madagascar so they
137. 5:33are now major trade offs that we have to
138. 5:36face and which necessitate difficult
139. 5:38choices and trade off between arborlon
140. 5:41and when forest between them for food
141. 5:44and land for energy production food
142. 5:47co-ops versus animal forming increasing
143. 5:49production versus safe environment and
144. 5:51space for wildlife vs. space for humans
145. 5:54now I go often to South Africa annum
146. 5:58wave much fascinated by the space that's
147. 6:01still available for wildlife in this
148. 6:03part of the world and this is possible
149. 6:05only because of the relatively low
150. 6:07population density yeah now this has
151. 6:10almost disappeared in Europe if one
152. 6:12wants to introduce a family of bears or
153. 6:14wolves in France this become a national
154. 6:16issue and almost impossible technically
155. 6:19so totally different sides of the pot
156. 6:21lemon
157. 6:23new and very important issues have
158. 6:26emerged in recent years any chance as an
159. 6:28effect on global ecological equilibrium
160. 6:30and Frances increase land implies the
161. 6:34destruction of the rainforest which
162. 6:35implies increasing emission of carbon
163. 6:37dioxide which implies global warming and
164. 6:40as many adverse consequences so if one
165. 6:43considers all the basic constraints on
166. 6:45human life mentioned above do we have
167. 6:47any solution compatible with increasing
168. 6:50population increasing income increasing
169. 6:52demand for goods and energy as defined
170. 6:55by the North American Way of life I
171. 6:57thought we have and this was said
172. 6:59already in the
173. 7:02Club of Rome report some 45 years ago
174. 7:06it's an interesting report a colleague
175. 7:09of mine went back to this report and try
176. 7:12to
177. 7:12compare what did happen in last 40 years
178. 7:15since the report was done with what they
179. 7:17wrote in 1972 most of what the road was
180. 7:20right and I know where we are we are
181. 7:23just seeing the beginning of the
182. 7:25problems and that they have described
183. 7:27next slide
184. 7:33next next question but its upper portion
185. 7:37control well I think there have been
186. 7:39major changes in the relationship
187. 7:41between developed and developing
188. 7:42countries in the 1950s when the
189. 7:46population Dippet started it was
190. 7:48centered around the wheel of the North
191. 7:50namely the USA and its allies to control
192. 7:53the position of the south and it was
193. 7:55mainly at that time Latin America Asia
194. 7:56and Africa and this happened
195. 7:59unfortunately in the context of
196. 8:01imperialism the colonization communism
197. 8:04Cold War and was therefore highly
198. 8:06politicized this is most unfortunate
199. 8:08since they are mostly common interests
200. 8:10that we see now I'm not any longer an
201. 8:13image of conflicting interest attitudes
202. 8:16and behavior too low to what's low
203. 8:19fertility tended to converge in the
204. 8:21recent years the world has become a
205. 8:23global village with common economic and
206. 8:25ecological constraints and the new
207. 8:27courage ecological issues and the
208. 8:29consequences are also becoming global in
209. 8:32particular global warming
210. 8:34so far I going back again to the
211. 8:37transition we have been lucky to have
212. 8:39dedicated people in the USA around
213. 8:42nineteen fifty started to address the
214. 8:44issue of operation control without
215. 8:46without them will be in a much worse
216. 8:49situation and will not have
217. 8:53the stabilizing position by
218. 8:562050 that the United Nations