Lecture Tim Dyson,iss,The Hague,The Netherlands,23 April 2009 part 7.mov — Transcript

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1. 0:00have been very good empirical validation
2. 0:02of this framework
3. 0:05in the Paleolithic times the world of
4. 0:08hunter-gatherers the equilibrium between
5. 0:11population and resources was probably
6. 0:13very similar to that for the animals
7. 0:15basically the limits were food motivated
8. 0:19by accident and violence competition
9. 0:21disease and competition for space with
10. 0:24plant and animals
11. 0:26Neolithic
12. 0:28times so the second part the food
13. 0:31resources become more abundant and less
14. 0:34of an issue except in times of famine
15. 0:38but the population density increases so
16. 0:41communicable disease start to take a
17. 0:43heavy toll because of higher
18. 0:46opportunities for gems to spread and
19. 0:50also because of more contact with
20. 0:52animals
21. 0:54so the answer to to this was probably to
22. 0:57maximize even more fertility by
23. 0:59Universal and early marriage and there
24. 1:01was a lot of incisions all the
25. 1:03traditional societies to have early
26. 1:05marriage for the women and while still
27. 1:07maintaining of course long uh uh
28. 1:10maintaining child survival with long
29. 1:11breast feeding into durations and long
30. 1:15birth intervals of course there were
31. 1:17Wars and another
32. 1:20positive child sales matters would say
33. 1:23would which will control fertility
34. 1:26if not in frequency at least in scale
35. 1:29because Wars have always existed even in
36. 1:31Paleolithic populations
37. 1:34and of course during this period as well
38. 1:36there were some attempts to regulate
39. 1:39fertilities politically through abortion
40. 1:41through infanticide but this seems to
41. 1:44have been very marginal I mean the main
42. 1:46objective and as mentioned by 10 by the
43. 1:48world who studied those processes was to
44. 1:51get as high fertility as possible in
45. 1:54order to balance the high mortality and
46. 1:57the end of this period is where Maltese
47. 1:59was writing he was writing about what
48. 2:01did happen over the past 2000 years
49. 2:03didn't anticipate what will uh uh happen
50. 2:07later on
51. 2:09and with in this realization we have
52. 2:11seen it uh firstly in Europe there was
53. 2:13some regulation with marriage we don't
54. 2:14know exactly when it started but there
55. 2:16was obviously a big phenomenon very
56. 2:19specific to Europe not found anywhere
57. 2:21else and then we have seen it couples
58. 2:24started to prefer smaller families and
59. 2:26to uh limit their fertility and this is
60. 2:29the core of the fertility transition
61. 2:33so we are now with a new paradigm for
62. 2:36humans I mean something very different
63. 2:37from animals
64. 2:39a new Consciousness that life would be
65. 2:41better with fewer children and this is
66. 2:44due to a variety of factors let's need
67. 2:47to have many uh children because the
68. 2:49survival to adulthood has increased a
69. 2:52change from quality to quantity to
70. 2:54Quality and then the need to make more
71. 2:57investment in children to ensure them
72. 2:59better chances in life competition
73. 3:02between cost of raising children and
74. 3:04acquisition of modern goods and this has
75. 3:06been extensively
76. 3:08discussed I always refer to adolfonte
77. 3:11who wrote the first book called the
78. 3:13demographic Revolution we explain in
79. 3:15detail and he studied everything at that
80. 3:17time also going back to the Romans that
81. 3:19there's not one single Factor explaining
82. 3:22the demographic transition but many
83. 3:24factors a series of factors which led to
84. 3:27this new Consciousness and this new
85. 3:29Behavior
86. 3:31uh the limit superpression growth still
87. 3:33exists and some are still man-made was
88. 3:36political instability posted management
89. 3:38poverty unfair distribution of wealth
90. 3:41not counting emerging diseases for those
91. 3:43who study African demography I mean AIDS
92. 3:46has been a major uh as a major impact on
93. 3:49modality over the last 20 years and this
94. 3:51was totally unexpected
95. 3:54next slide
96. 3:57so we'll always come back to maltes when
97. 4:00we discuss the demographic transition
98. 4:03I will present the two sides are wrong
99. 4:06our righty was
100. 4:08all right so malt is focused on the
101. 4:11equilibrium between food supply poverty
102. 4:13and preparation growth and when you
103. 4:16wrote this famous book and it's a
104. 4:17principle of population it was just at
105. 4:20the end of the previous period at the
106. 4:22end of this bed we have seen the
107. 4:24stabilization of the of the population
108. 4:25and at the beginning of a new era and
109. 4:29Philippi is a francistonian keeps saying
110. 4:31that he was born too early in a world
111. 4:33that was changing too fast
112. 4:38uh much to studied the fate of human
113. 4:40societies uh and he understood very well
114. 4:43what did happen at that time and that
115. 4:46favorable conditions population growth
116. 4:48exponentially but then land is fixed the
117. 4:50resources are fixed so there must be a
118. 4:52limit to population growth and the
119. 4:54knowledge as you know all the virus
120. 4:56positive checks to population poverty
121. 4:59famine disease was and so on so forth
122. 5:02and obviously he was right when he wrote
123. 5:03his book and also he was a morality says
124. 5:07you know he was a clergyman and refused
125. 5:08anything else that what he called the
126. 5:10moral restraints which meant abstinence
127. 5:13and delayed marriage the only methods of
128. 5:16controlling fertility in Europe at that
129. 5:18time which were culturally acceptable
130. 5:22next slide
131. 5:24now are wrong I mean you Lord have been
132. 5:26debates from the the beginning uh wrong
133. 5:29was maltus and it was wrong in two ways
134. 5:32two main ways
135. 5:34first of all it didn't anticipate the
136. 5:37major Innovations in agriculture between
137. 5:401800 and 2000 the uh a yield uh
138. 5:44increased faster than the population so
139. 5:46that the food supply per capita
140. 5:48increased despite the increasing
141. 5:50population and yet always the opposite
142. 5:52argument because it was again looking at
143. 5:54data from the past where it didn't
144. 5:57happen before
145. 5:59and it was wrong also on the fertility
146. 6:01transition because it didn't anticipate
147. 6:04that people would start changing
148. 6:05Behavior by choice and not on their
149. 6:08physical constraints and and this new
150. 6:10attitude became morally acceptable in
151. 6:13the 19th century primarily because of
152. 6:15the secularization of societies and he
153. 6:18probably couldn't anticipate that at
154. 6:20that time so basically in Europe couples
155. 6:23served the population problem about
156. 6:24sending their attitude and behavior and
157. 6:27adopting contraception and then
158. 6:29especially with colonization Europeans
159. 6:31exported this new attitude to the rest
160. 6:33of the World by providing a template a
161. 6:36model that people could imitate and
162. 6:39after 1950 by developing State policies
163. 6:42and by this I mean namely the family but
164. 6:44in programs
165. 6:46so even if the balance between
166. 6:47population growth and resources was
167. 6:49challenged this multis this doesn't mean
168. 6:51that the constraints have all
169. 6:52disappeared our world is still Limited
170. 6:54in space and resources
171. 6:57next slide
172. 6:59now next question is a Dutch case
173. 7:01replicable well I couldn't speak about
174. 7:04the population question in this country
175. 7:05without mentioning what is called the
176. 7:07Dutch case Holland is always presented
177. 7:10as the ideal model against multigen IDs
178. 7:13in fact it is almost as I said you know
179. 7:17that cream cake that actors will fought
180. 7:18with each other's face in Burlesque
181. 7:20movies at the beginning of the 20th
182. 7:22century I mean I was uh in Paris over
183. 7:26the last few months and available with a
184. 7:29very prominent French demographer I
185. 7:31spoke on TV and he mentioned uh Holland
186. 7:33as an example a few weeks ago I really
187. 7:36really don't give a lecture at the
188. 7:37College of France which is very
189. 7:38prestigious institution and again spoke
190. 7:41about Holland as an example against
191. 7:43maltesian ideas
192. 7:45so let's see what is unique about
193. 7:47Holland and what is our replicably it is
194. 7:51Holland is presented as the population
195. 7:53Miracle able to combine High population
196. 7:56density with high income
197. 7:58we know how the the you you did it I
198. 8:01mean by increasing Urban learn food
199. 8:03technology and by managing efficiently
200. 8:06the state and the economy and developing
201. 8:08trade those are permitted uh population
202. 8:11explosion on a very small amount of land
203. 8:15and in addition and I will again go to
204. 8:20what team was just saying I mean there's
205. 8:22a political Dimension to this Holland
206. 8:24was in fact a leader in liberalism in
207. 8:26economic development in international
208. 8:28trade and is still a leader in democracy
209. 8:30and permissiveness and we learned
210. 8:33recently when talking about the second
211. 8:35demographic condition that Holland was
212. 8:38again a leader is in Holland that the
213. 8:40managed marriage for the woman is the
214. 8:43highest in Europe and probably among the
215. 8:45highest in the world
216. 8:48now how replicable is the Dutch case
217. 8:51well Holland is certainly outstanding
218. 8:54but doesn't mean that the Dutch case is
219. 8:56replicable and those are basic arguments
220. 8:58hollanders