Lecture Tim Dyson,iss,The Hague,The Netherlands,23 April 2009 part 6.mov — Transcript

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1. 0:00simple
2. 0:01illustration and these illustrations
3. 0:03assumed that per capita CO2 emissions
4. 0:06would remain constant over time okay the
5. 0:09level of per capita CO2 emissions would
6. 0:11remain constant over time at the levels
7. 0:13that prevailed around the year 2000 but
8. 0:16on that highly simple assumption and
9. 0:19these are purely illustrative
10. 0:22calculations these calculations show
11. 0:25using the United Nations population
12. 0:28projections that projected population
13. 0:30growth in South Central Asia that is
14. 0:33essentially India Pakistan and
15. 0:35Bangladesh over the first 50 years of
16. 0:38the current century will increase Global
17. 0:41CO2 emissions by about 9931 million tons
18. 0:46okay so we're holding per capita
19. 0:48emissions constant in that region simply
20. 0:50taking the demographic projection of the
21. 0:52United Nations which of course may be
22. 0:54more or less uh right it depends or more
23. 0:57or less wrong but that simple illustr
24. 1:00calculation suggests that population
25. 1:02growth of almost a billion people in
26. 1:04that world region will increase Global
27. 1:07CO2 emissions by about 931 million tons
28. 1:11the more people the more fossil fuel use
29. 1:14the more
30. 1:16carbon
31. 1:17however projected population growth in
32. 1:20North America here we're just talking
33. 1:22about Canada and the United States over
34. 1:26that 50-year period is put at about 120
35. 1:29million
36. 1:31people but holding per capita emissions
37. 1:34constant in North America of course that
38. 1:37relatively small demographic increase
39. 1:39has a huge uh effect in terms of carbon
40. 1:43uh indeed the corresponding increase in
41. 1:45carbon is 2.5 billion
42. 1:49tons so the effects of population of
43. 1:52course depend upon the context within
44. 1:55which they
45. 1:56occur Okay
46. 1:58goodna so so this brings me to the
47. 2:01conclusion and the conclusion is that
48. 2:03think what you will population matters
49. 2:06that's my main
50. 2:08conclusion in many ways this transition
51. 2:11you've got to know about this transition
52. 2:13in many
53. 2:14ways the demographic transition has been
54. 2:17a good thing no doubt about it and it
55. 2:19benefits people everywhere uh in many
56. 2:23ways but the transition also essentially
57. 2:26represents a period of considerable
58. 2:30destabilization in human history that's
59. 2:33what the transition is it's a period
60. 2:35essentially of
61. 2:36destabilization because the death rate
62. 2:38declines and the birth rate declines
63. 2:41later and this destabilization occurs
64. 2:45both at the national level but it Al
65. 2:47also occurs at the level of individuals
66. 2:50at the level of individual couples
67. 2:52individual men and women at the
68. 2:53household the family
69. 2:56level in this context in my view the
70. 2:59provision of safe effective and
71. 3:03affordable contraception is the main way
72. 3:06of minimizing this
73. 3:08destabilization because contraception If
74. 3:11people really have access to
75. 3:12contraception and Steve sinding will no
76. 3:15doubt tell you about those people who
77. 3:17don't but contraception affords people
78. 3:21at least with
79. 3:22choice and in my view all the evidence
80. 3:25is that given the possibility of making
81. 3:28that choice given the possibility of
82. 3:30using
83. 3:32contraception then eventually everywhere
84. 3:36men and women decide to take it thank
85. 3:45you thank you very much um you have
86. 3:49drawn your own conclusion quite clearly
87. 3:52Professor Dyson and therefore without
88. 3:54further Ado I'd like to introduce
89. 3:56Michelle Garen who will bring us to a
90. 3:59few questions that need to be asked in
91. 4:02fact uh while Gordana is placing the
92. 4:05PowerPoint I say it already um here you
93. 4:08see his presentation a brief discussion
94. 4:11around seven
95. 4:13questions Mr Garen the floor is
96. 4:19yours first thank you very much for
97. 4:21inviting me to come here today and to be
98. 4:23able to speak to you um i' I'm going to
99. 4:27say basically the same things as the
100. 4:29what team just said but in a different
101. 4:31ways and trying to stimulate the
102. 4:33discussion I will raise a number of
103. 4:35questions uh I'm affiliated with the
104. 4:38French Institute for research and
105. 4:39development and also I'm currently
106. 4:41working at the P Institute in the
107. 4:43emerging disease unit most of my work as
108. 4:45been in Africa primarily in small scale
109. 4:49uh type of research in the was called
110. 4:52population laboratory where you sit down
111. 4:54in a village for 10 years and study
112. 4:55everything you can but I've had lately
113. 4:58border interest in what what's going on
114. 5:00in
115. 5:01Africa and Africa is like Asia 50 years
116. 5:05ago is undergoing a major demographic
117. 5:08transition uh much faster than I would
118. 5:10have anticipated when I started studying
119. 5:12demography and much faster also that
120. 5:15most people I know have been
121. 5:18anticipating um so Tim gave us a very
122. 5:21good uh an excellent uh review of the
123. 5:24demographic transition and I think I
124. 5:27have nothing to add or subtract it's
125. 5:29very
126. 5:30comprehensive as you know it's a very
127. 5:31complex topic which has been the focus
128. 5:34of endless discussions and there's been
129. 5:37a number of of Journal articles on this
130. 5:40topic people arguing for and against by
131. 5:43many of my colleagues so rather than
132. 5:46trying to give you one more account on
133. 5:48this uh I will try to uh raise a number
134. 5:51of
135. 5:52questions uh those view are very
136. 5:55personal and at times provocative and
137. 5:57they are meant to be provocative in
138. 5:58order to stimulate the the
139. 6:02discussion um as we have seen in T's
140. 6:05presentation thank you um the
141. 6:08demographic transition is a very complex
142. 6:10process which encompasses in fact
143. 6:13several transition the El transition the
144. 6:15fertility transition the marage
145. 6:17transition economic growth
146. 6:20urbanization and many other consequences
147. 6:23of those major change uh that uh are
148. 6:27around this demographic transition
149. 6:29there's even now a second demographic
150. 6:31transition going on uh as uh labeled by
151. 6:36my Dutch and Flemish colleagues V and
152. 6:38Ron leag rag was in Paris two weeks ago
153. 6:41and gave a lecture on the second
154. 6:43demographic transition where you get
155. 6:45very very low fertility and very late
156. 6:49marriage um all this process are very
157. 6:52well documented and uh we are now facing
158. 6:55new issues and new options for uh
159. 6:58solving those problems
160. 7:02uh next slide yeah uh so the framework
161. 7:05the the seven question that I would like
162. 7:07to raise here are the following um
163. 7:10trying to go back really uh long time
164. 7:13back in time in term of hard productive
165. 7:16success what is so different with
166. 7:18humans what malus right or wrong I mean
167. 7:21you know malus is always the center of
168. 7:22all the debates on around the
169. 7:24demographic transition is the Dutch case
170. 7:27replicable I going explain why um will
171. 7:30focus on the Dutch case as well what
172. 7:33happens Beyond food limits are North sou
173. 7:35relationship
174. 7:37changing um are we talking about
175. 7:39fertility control or are we talking
176. 7:40about productive health and is negative
177. 7:43population growth
178. 7:46desirable so let's go on the the first
179. 7:49uh uh
180. 7:51question as you know living organisms
181. 7:53have a common strategy to maximize their
182. 7:55reproduction for an in animal
183. 7:57populations more resources es or more
184. 8:00opportunities tend to produce more
185. 8:02offspring most often associated with the
186. 8:04population explosion and population
187. 8:07growth is always limited by natural
188. 8:09situations the limits may come from food
189. 8:11availability from change in the
190. 8:13environment from disease on for
191. 8:15Predators which put Hal on the
192. 8:17population
193. 8:19explosion next
194. 8:21slide uh here is the most classic uh uh
195. 8:25scheme that people have been using uh
196. 8:27introduced by uh D was a zoologist and
197. 8:31ecologist more than a
198. 8:33demographer as you see there have been
199. 8:36three main phases uh in human history uh
200. 8:40which are in three different colors the
201. 8:43paleolitic the neotic and the recent uh
202. 8:46rise in population which is the core of
203. 8:49the demographic
204. 8:50transition what is important here is
205. 8:52that every time you have a population
206. 8:54explosion and then you tend to reach a
207. 8:56limit uh you the population tend to
208. 8:58stabilize
209. 8:59and then