Lecture Tim Dyson,iss,The Hague,The Netherlands,23 April 2009 part 12 — Transcript

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1. 0:00I agree with you that economic power is
2. 0:03only a minor issue I mean people want
3. 0:06income per capita but the size of the
4. 0:08market has always been put as a major
5. 0:10reason for promoting population growth
6. 0:13and the faster your population growth
7. 0:14the bigger will be your market and that
8. 0:17this is supposed to stimulate economic
9. 0:19growth and income per capita now we have
10. 0:22to remember that many European countries
11. 0:24are very tiny Luxemburg Switzerland are
12. 0:26very tiny and they are extremely wealthy
13. 0:29so I think the size now do not matter
14. 0:31doesn't matter anymore because of
15. 0:33international trade I mean the the
16. 0:35market is becoming Global now it's not
17. 0:38issue of a local market or national
18. 0:40Market I mean the the markets are Global
19. 0:44so uh all those
20. 0:46arguments are no longer
21. 0:49valid uh can I go back to one of the
22. 0:51question that was raised U rather 14
23. 0:54that for me but on the woman uh
24. 0:56education I fully agree but we don't do
25. 0:59education for limiting family size I
26. 1:01mean this is not the point we want to
27. 1:03put all the children in school because
28. 1:05they that's the only way to be
29. 1:07integrated in a modern economy yeah and
30. 1:09my own experience in many countries and
31. 1:12I meet exactly I fully agree with what
32. 1:15team says that whether women are
33. 1:17educated or not if the Family Planning
34. 1:19program is good then 30day goes down
35. 1:22Morocco is a very nice case uh half of
36. 1:25the population is illiterate because
37. 1:27they are living in the the mountains uh
38. 1:30and they are extremely isolated and the
39. 1:32other half is rather educated living
40. 1:34basically on European standards nowadays
41. 1:37and the pur the fertility decline has
42. 1:39been basically the same for the two
43. 1:41groups as the same for the educated
44. 1:44women as for the uneducated women of
45. 1:47course for the educated woman is it was
46. 1:48a bit earlier and a bit faster but uh
47. 1:51the the magnitude of the of the speed of
48. 1:53the FTI decline is just impressive as
49. 1:55well for the illiterate maroccan woman
50. 1:58and the same applies to Bangladesh the
51. 2:00same appli to many African countries
52. 2:02where no one would have anticipated the
53. 2:04faity decline that we have been
54. 2:06witnessing over the last 25
55. 2:08years thank
56. 2:10you thank you very much I'd like to ask
57. 2:12for the people who ask the questions if
58. 2:14they would like to discuss a particular
59. 2:16issue which has been brought up so I see
60. 2:18Mr Hing um yes and then uh yes then then
61. 2:23I say yes deepart had a had a question
62. 2:25and Anette also had a question in which
63. 2:27she'd like to come back and then I'll
64. 2:29make make a second round for you but
65. 2:31first briefly your rebuttal or your
66. 2:34reaction to the answers that you've
67. 2:36heard is about the income it was not the
68. 2:38level of income I was talking about but
69. 2:41the predictability the certainty of of
70. 2:43income as and that may hold for poor
71. 2:46people as well not the level not the
72. 2:48absolute level it's a certain the lack
73. 2:50of certainty and and particularly of
74. 2:52course for the female part of the
75. 2:54population not the level but the
76. 2:57predictability that people people feel
77. 2:59sure of where they are yeah I think it's
78. 3:03more than only food uh or income uh it's
79. 3:07a general problem of predictability I
80. 3:08mean I agree with you in in principle uh
81. 3:11but you know over the last 50 years and
82. 3:14food supply has been far more
83. 3:15predictable than ever before I mean the
84. 3:17number of famines has been reduced to
85. 3:19very very few and when there's a famine
86. 3:21in one place you get International Aid
87. 3:24and the same for disease disease control
88. 3:26I mean the vaccination antibiotics antim
89. 3:29drugs everything became much more
90. 3:31predictable and I think this is why it
91. 3:34explains that even in very poor
92. 3:36countries where income has hardly
93. 3:38increased you still have a lot of
94. 3:40success with Family employing Programs
95. 3:42talking about Sagal we have been working
96. 3:44for 10 years there's no growth in income
97. 3:46over the last 50 years from 1950 to 2000
98. 3:49the income per capita has been stable
99. 3:51but 30 decline has been dramatic in
100. 3:54urban areas and it's starting now to be
101. 3:56important as well in rural areas and
102. 3:58this is not only income level or income
103. 4:01stability it's a whole system which
104. 4:03became far more stable which makes
105. 4:05people far more optimistic about the
106. 4:07future yeah Ju Just one point I mean
107. 4:10clearly um mortality decline within the
108. 4:13demographic transition leads
109. 4:15to much greater security and one of
110. 4:19security simply in existence and that
111. 4:22that is such a
112. 4:23fundamental and massive increase in
113. 4:25security I mean I think that that is is
114. 4:28is relevant even though I'm simply
115. 4:29working in terms of prospects for uh for
116. 4:33for living from one day to the next if
117. 4:34you like um but one other point just to
118. 4:37add on this is that just in the way that
119. 4:40fertility declines have occurred in uh
120. 4:43populations with lower and lower levels
121. 4:44of per capita income um of course
122. 4:46exactly the same thing has happened in
123. 4:48uh in respect of mortality decline as
124. 4:52well
125. 4:55de sir I have a question and very
126. 4:58hypothetical question question suppose
127. 5:00India uses fossil fuel and Achieve
128. 5:03modern economic growth to an extent like
129. 5:06European Standard and we every everybody
130. 5:09in India owns a
131. 5:12car and live the life uh like European
132. 5:15or North American what is going to
133. 5:28happen well
134. 5:31um I'm not particularly happy with North
135. 5:33American and European standards I
136. 5:35suppose we'll be one one way of looking
137. 5:37at it so um there is this
138. 5:41uh yeah I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna come
139. 5:44back can you give me a minute or two to
140. 5:47to think about that no I'm quite serious
141. 5:49because there I can't it's you know
142. 5:50we're moving from one subject to another
143. 5:52very very quickly um I want to come back
144. 5:56okay our net was
145. 5:58three please microphone for Anette yeah
146. 6:02actually I can answer the question can I
147. 6:03can I answer the question yeah yeah I
148. 6:06can answer the question I I mean um it
149. 6:10firstly
150. 6:11um uh
151. 6:14uh that there is a major obviously a
152. 6:17huge problem of poverty in India um and
153. 6:20although we've had a very considerable
154. 6:21economic
155. 6:22growth per capita income growth rates of
156. 6:2489% per year for a considerable period
157. 6:27of time um this is done
158. 6:30really not very much for a substantial
159. 6:32section of the population several
160. 6:34hundred million people and I think that
161. 6:36that problem this the the size of the
162. 6:39poverty in India is going to remain and
163. 6:42become uh rather intractable if you if
164. 6:44you ask my My Views looking at over time
165. 6:46Horizon of say 20 to to to 30 years um
166. 6:50although hopefully there will be some
167. 6:52improvement but when you look at at
168. 6:53levels of child malnutrition
169. 6:55undernutrition in India very little
170. 6:57change uh and in as much as there has
171. 6:59been change it's not been because of
172. 7:01higher uh food intake for infants and
173. 7:04young children it's been because of
174. 7:06reduced infectious disease in the
175. 7:08environment brought about by
176. 7:09immunization programs so there are major
177. 7:11there are really major problems there
178. 7:14but the reason why I hesitated was
179. 7:17because you you've got to get the
180. 7:18phrases right and the phrase for me if
181. 7:21we're looking at this issue of carbon
182. 7:22emissions and global warming which I
183. 7:24don't think basically people take
184. 7:26seriously but let's take let's try and
185. 7:28take it seriously at least you and me
186. 7:30now um in my view the way to address the
187. 7:33issue that you are raising is through
188. 7:36the proposed mechanism of contraction
189. 7:38and
190. 7:40convergence okay now this is the issue
191. 7:41of global CO2 emissions I believe that
192. 7:45contraction and and and convergence is
193. 7:48the way forward um and the way this
194. 7:51system operates uh I'm going to do this
195. 7:54very very crudely but um there is an
196. 7:57agreement okay as to the the um level of
197. 8:01per capita emissions that can be uh
198. 8:04emitted in the future for stabilization
199. 8:07right very very crudely and the idea is
200. 8:10that those countries such as India that
201. 8:12are below that level can rise to that
202. 8:15level it's an agreed Global level but
203. 8:18those countries that are above that
204. 8:20level must come down to that level okay
205. 8:24so since you were essentially injecting
206. 8:26a very important moral dimension in into
207. 8:29what we're talking about that would be
208. 8:31my answer to you the system for CO2
209. 8:35emiss for the limitation of CO2
210. 8:37emissions or at least the Restriction of
211. 8:38CO2 emissions that is known as
212. 8:40contraction and convergence I think that
213. 8:43has what we
214. 8:45need
215. 8:47Anette um my question is in fact related
216. 8:51to the issue speak the phone um my
217. 8:54question is related to the issue of CO2
218. 8:58emiss s