Lecture Tim Dyson,iss,The Hague,The Netherlands,23 April 2009 part 10.mov — Transcript

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1. 0:00for us and that the condition for
2. 0:01contraception to work is predictability
3. 0:04is a certain level of income predictable
4. 0:06income not a high level but that
5. 0:09condition has to be met before it it
6. 0:12works so what is the
7. 0:16question no it was more that I missed it
8. 0:19I missed it completely in in both you
9. 0:22yeah okay so that is the point you
10. 0:24raising you'd like to answer to that to
11. 0:26that point yes number
12. 0:28two
13. 0:37um my name is Yun fenin I work at
14. 0:41Netherlands interdisciplinary
15. 0:43demographic Institute and uh at the
16. 0:46school of Public Health at the
17. 0:47University of ptor in South Africa I
18. 0:51would like to ask a question to Tim
19. 0:53Dyson and it deals with his um his short
20. 0:59uh summary of the impact of the
21. 1:03demographic transition on
22. 1:06urbanization um you you
23. 1:10um and especially then on your on the
24. 1:13fact that you that you feel that Family
25. 1:16Planning was apparently has not always
26. 1:20had not often been seen as an as a
27. 1:23possibility for lowering uh Urban uh
28. 1:27growth but uh
29. 1:30I would I ask you to expand on this
30. 1:33because it is clear that in virtually
31. 1:38all developing countries the the Family
32. 1:41Planning services are better organized
33. 1:44and better quality in urban than in
34. 1:46rural areas so um uh it is uh one of the
35. 1:53ways in which
36. 1:55indeed situation is reached in which um
37. 1:59fertility is lower in urban than in
38. 2:02rural areas so I my question is if you
39. 2:05I'm a little bit a bit surprised about
40. 2:07that statement and appreciate if you can
41. 2:10expand on
42. 2:11this thank you very much number
43. 2:17three um my name is Deepak Singh I come
44. 2:20from India and I'm doing my masters from
45. 2:22ISS and my question is to Tim and I
46. 2:25would like to know that uh you said that
47. 2:29uh
48. 2:30modern economic growth uh can reduce the
49. 2:34mortality rate and again you gave an
50. 2:37example from North America which talks
51. 2:40about uh 2.5 billion tons of car carbon
52. 2:45emissions the modern economic growth I
53. 2:49feel that uh this is a quite related
54. 2:52terms uh the carbon emission in North
55. 2:55America is a pproduct of modern economic
56. 2:59growth
57. 3:00and maybe population growth uh in
58. 3:04Southeast Asia is just uh 2 billion but
59. 3:08is still
60. 3:09contributing uh
61. 3:11931 million tons carbon in the whole
62. 3:14world whereas North America over a 100
63. 3:18million population is contributing 2 2.5
64. 3:21billion which is a kind of creating
65. 3:24crisis for whole population of the world
66. 3:28and in that term are we just
67. 3:30concentrating on population growth or
68. 3:32population uh reduction or modern
69. 3:35economic growth as well thank
70. 3:38you thank you very much deot number
71. 3:46four I at meber I worked for the foreign
72. 3:50Ministry of the Netherlands some time
73. 3:52ago uh I'm not
74. 3:56pado um I have a question to the second
75. 3:59speaker particular his last point he's a
76. 4:03little bit optimistic in a certain way
77. 4:05that we all uh grow together and there
78. 4:08will be a balance between birth and
79. 4:10death and so on that's that's
80. 4:13fine uh but the point is that we now
81. 4:16have that achieved that in s the Western
82. 4:18countries uh a much lower level no
83. 4:21growth anymore of the population of even
84. 4:25negative well the other parts of the
85. 4:28world is still growing extremely fast
86. 4:30population now what tensions is going to
87. 4:34give that between the two I think quite
88. 4:36a
89. 4:37lot maybe you can say a little bit more
90. 4:40about
91. 4:44it number
92. 4:46five my name is Anette Co I'm a patent
93. 4:49examiner and I'm not at all an expert in
94. 4:53your field um but what is uh striking me
95. 4:57is um uh that the issue of uh women's
96. 5:01education and uh women's right to
97. 5:05self-determination of their body and
98. 5:07their health is um not at all addressed
99. 5:10in your speeches and uh I think that
100. 5:13that is um uh something which is very
101. 5:16crucial in fact uh to population uh
102. 5:20growth and uh um to to its effect uh on
103. 5:24the on the um demogra on the demographic
104. 5:28uh change you were talking about um and
105. 5:32my question uh is how would you um
106. 5:36possibly affect um a raise of the level
107. 5:39of women's education also for instance
108. 5:43in rural areas of developing countries
109. 5:47where it is still um dramatically low
110. 5:51how would you like to bring this
111. 5:54about thank you very much number
112. 5:58six
113. 6:00I'm H um I'm a member of the club F te
114. 6:05mun here in in the Netherlands and also
115. 6:07member of the political party Kun Lings
116. 6:10I'm very much astonished about the Taboo
117. 6:13in politics in NE and other Western
118. 6:16countries about not talking the
119. 6:19population so that's the reason that the
120. 6:21talks are here this way is very welcome
121. 6:23to me um and I think the need to go down
122. 6:26in population is very urgent political
123. 6:29but well that's the second question I I
124. 6:32would have liked to pose um the question
125. 6:36I want to pose to Michelle Michelle
126. 6:37Garen is in the last um list of
127. 6:41advantages of continuing population
128. 6:44growth and the advantages of population
129. 6:47shrink um there is one advantage that's
130. 6:50mil military power I can understand that
131. 6:52one the second one you post is economic
132. 6:55power
133. 6:56but my always thinking about about is is
134. 7:00economic power is that economic power of
135. 7:02a complete country or do we have to
136. 7:04measure things like that as per capita
137. 7:07you have in the second list the per
138. 7:09capita income will increase I think when
139. 7:12when we make measurements and
140. 7:13considerations like this we always have
141. 7:15for military power maybe not but for all
142. 7:18the other things especially economic
143. 7:20power we have to measure per capita uh
144. 7:23wealth and not total economic uh Power
145. 7:26of a country could you please answer on
146. 7:29that question if that argument still
147. 7:31persists or should be
148. 7:33scrapped very good thank you Tim
149. 7:39D well a lot of points um not all I
150. 7:43won't address all of them but I'll try
151. 7:44and address most of them um the first
152. 7:48point seemed to relate to the extent to
153. 7:51which a minimum level of per capita
154. 7:53income was required for fertility
155. 7:54decline in a
156. 7:56population um I I I really don't know
157. 8:01about a minimum level of per capita
158. 8:02income because obviously per capita
159. 8:03incomes can be very low but my response
160. 8:07in general to the point that I think
161. 8:08you're raising is that very poor
162. 8:11populations can reduce their
163. 8:12fertility so if you go back 30 or 40
164. 8:15years the sort of Paradigm that
165. 8:17prevailed was that people thought that
166. 8:18you had to increase per capita incomes
167. 8:20in order to reduce birth rates in order
168. 8:22to reduce fertility and um what
169. 8:25experience has shown is that that is not
170. 8:27necessarily uh the case and poor
171. 8:29populations can reduce their fertility
172. 8:31if you look at Southern India for
173. 8:32example it's a poor population um they
174. 8:35have experienced fertility Decline and
175. 8:37levels of total fertility are very low
176. 8:40so our old Paradigm the old demographic
177. 8:42Paradigm that saw changes rises in
178. 8:44living standards important though they
179. 8:47are of course we're all in favor of them
180. 8:49but nevertheless that saw rises in per
181. 8:51capita incomes as being necessary to
182. 8:54achieve fertility decline has generally
183. 8:57been proved uh in in in