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Lecture 16: Project Estimation Techniques — Transcript

by NPTEL IIT Kharagpur · 3,888 words · 592 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00[Music]
0:13you
0:13[Music]
0:15good afternoon today we will discuss
0:19about little bit of project planning and
0:23the basics of project estimation see
0:30first let's see what makes a successful
0:32product so if there are we cannot
0:37deliver the project in proper time with
0:41agreed-upon geraldi that has been what
0:44discussed with the individual and then
0:48are the agreed cost at the mutual cost
0:52that is decided to the user and then
0:55with the required quality what what is
0:58the quality the user wants that much
1:00quality that we have provided then the
1:03user will be satisfied then we say that
1:04this project is successful for this we
1:07require two stages that is the we have
1:11to set the targets then we have to
1:14attempt to achieve the targets but
1:16sometimes what happens if the targets
1:20are not achievable the project manager
1:21tries to achieve all those targets but
1:25it's not possible to achieve they are
1:26not achievable then what he should show
1:28then actually program the projects
1:31normally they get filled due to lack of
1:33proper planning and proper estimation so
1:36he has to do proper planning and
1:38estimation so that the project might get
1:41success so let's see little so that's
1:44really let us see as I had told you he
1:46has to the project manager has to plan
1:49properly regarding the activity of the
1:51project and do proper estimation in to
1:53get the process project success let's
1:56little bit say about the introduction to
1:58project planning we have already seen
2:00that before a project starts we have to
2:02carry out the project feasibility study
2:04activities then if a project is found to
2:07be feasible if a proposal is found to be
2:09feasible in every respect like technical
2:12it is technical pitiable financially
2:14feasible and operational visible then
2:16the project manager will take it for
2:18what further steps so project managers
2:21activities are varied and
2:25they can be broadly classified into two
2:29categories 1 the project planning and
2:31then she has the project monitoring and
2:34control so the activities project
2:36managers activities can be divided into
2:38these two categories as I have already
2:45told you that once you project it found
2:47to be feasible the project manager then
2:50he has to undertake cardi project
2:52planning so first he has to make an
2:54initial plan before the development
2:56starts and then this plan is updated
2:59very frequently you can say that first
3:03the project study is conducted in order
3:05to know that to Heather the project is
3:07also doing or not then the project
3:09manager has to develop the plan here he
3:12has to see that how do we do it how this
3:15project needs can he can and they can
3:18follow it so they have to make a plan
3:20and finally project Egyptian step here
3:23they have to actually execute whatever
3:26plan they have made here they have to
3:28execute the project execution now let's
3:31see briefly what are the various project
3:34planning activities so number one
3:36extermination
3:38so during estimation pests what needs to
3:40estimated you put cost resource and
3:43project duration then the project
3:46manager has to develop a proper
3:48scheduling what he has to make a proper
3:51schedule she has to follow some
3:52scheduling methodologies then also a
3:56staff organization has to be done
3:58properly about how many steps will be
4:00required for this project that has to be
4:02planned then as we know in every project
4:04contain some risks some particular
4:07different or some specific methodologies
4:09have to be followed for handling the
4:11risks like I didn't find the regs
4:12analyzing the exam Department of directs
4:15then the project managers may have to
4:18follow some miscellaneous plans we are
4:20doing Quality Assurance plan
4:21configuration management plan etc so
4:25let's see in detail what the how the
4:27activity is a project planning
4:28activities they will be followed
4:30first the manager has to identify the
4:34steps required to accomplish the set
4:36project objectives or the targets then
4:39they he has to identify the
4:43attacks which are needed to be performed
4:45at each of the step Mahima used for this
4:49the work breakdown structure etc then he
4:52has to estimate how much he put each
4:54stacks requires also he has to estimate
4:56how much the resource resources are
4:58required for what firming it stacks and
5:01if three and poor are known given item
5:05number three and four then the project
5:07manager he has to calculate how long
5:09each stacks or staple take that means he
5:11has to calculate the project duration
5:13similarly he has to estimate the tax
5:15tape and project cost how much cost will
5:17be spent for developing this tax or the
5:21per individual step or for the whole
5:22project he has to also determine the
5:25interdependencies among the tax if any
5:27and finally he has to prepare a schedule
5:29for each tax and the whole project so
5:32here he may use milestones deliverables
5:36cost and payments etc now let's see why
5:40you should go for protect planning
5:41because project planning requires utmost
5:43care and attention because what
5:46commitments to unrealistic time and
5:48resource estimates result in the
5:50followings if the project manager
5:53committed some unrealistic times which
5:55he cannot achieve at all and some
5:58resource estimates which is not pitiful
6:00at all then the following problem some
6:02idea rights what could the following
6:03problems it may unnecessarily make delay
6:06the delivery of the project so that the
6:08customer will be irritated and a
6:10customer will be dissatisfied hence
6:12there will be adverse effect on the tip
6:14morale and due to poor poor quality work
6:16there will be adverse effect on team
6:18morale and it may be even if it may be
6:21the case due to improper estimation etc
6:24so the project might get failure so
6:27that's why it is very much important we
6:29should give what most care and attention
6:31to project planning so sliding-window
6:34planning is a special type of planning
6:37which involves project planning over
6:39several studies so it does not make the
6:41plan in one step at a single step rather
6:44it prepares the project planning over
6:47several stages here the normally it
6:49protects managers from making big
6:52commitment to early because what to do
6:55normally managers do
6:56are the very early the caramel spells
6:58they make a commitment that will develop
7:00or will deliver the project by this
7:02state which they may not actually
7:04achieve it so that's why in the sliding
7:07window protocol or sliding window
7:09planning the managers they will be
7:12prevented from making big commitments
7:13too early so this principle just like a
7:16Java sliding window protocol that you
7:18have studied in networking
7:20yes networking so then more information
7:23becomes available at the project
7:25progresses say initially only with less
7:27information available what are the
7:28progress progresses so the more and more
7:32on the updated information they are
7:33coming so this updated information which
7:37result which I received later on so they
7:40will facilitate for accurate planning so
7:42that's why instead of for making in one
7:45window or in one what a one page the
7:49managers this should perform the
7:52planning in several stages are in just I
7:55using this some concept of window in the
8:00what in the page up for several stages
8:04so finally as you know that every stage
8:08up for this classical what Apple model
8:11it contains some outputs should be there
8:13so similarly what is the output of this
8:15software project management the output
8:17of software project management each this
8:19s PMP document which is known as
8:21software project management a plan
8:23document so after planning is complete
8:25the project manager he has to document
8:27the Flan's we're in a document called a
8:30software project management plan
8:32document what will be the organization
8:34what will the contents of the organism
8:36the following content should be there in
8:37the SPM be document first that will be
8:40there should be little bit tough for
8:41introduction of the project where are
8:43the objectives and the major functions
8:45etc should be described then the various
8:48project estimates they have to have
8:50mention like the historical data the
8:52estimation techniques used to the
8:54estimation for cost report and project
8:57duration etc they have to be placed in
9:00this section project estimate then
9:02project resources plan it will contain
9:04on the what the resources they will be
9:07required by the project might be deep
9:09all hardware software and any specialty
9:11course resources if any schedule in this
9:15content the following so what title
9:17should be there like the human you do or
9:19make them structure the tax Network
9:22Gantt chart and for chart etc then
9:26another what content might be risk
9:28management plan how you will handle the
9:31dicks for that you have to put what kind
9:34of different types of risks what risk
9:36analysis you have performed how to
9:39identify the risks how to what estimate
9:41the impact of the risks how to abandon
9:44or mitigate the risks so those things
9:46has to be explained in the risk
9:47management plan
9:48similarly project tracking and control
9:50plan how you are tracking the project hi
9:52work loan controlling and monitoring the
9:54project the plan regarding that should
9:56be discussed here and finally one
9:58miscellaneous section should be there in
10:00the SPS PMP document which will contain
10:03like the process telling quality
10:05assurance aspects comparison management
10:07aspects they will be described in the
10:09orga in the s PMP document under the
10:12heading of miscellaneous plans so now
10:14let's see what are the fundamental
10:15estimation questions what should be the
10:19size of the subtract that we are going
10:21to develop so we have to estimate
10:22decides then how much input is required
10:26to complete an activity so we have to
10:29estimate here the input similarly how
10:31much calendar time how much devezin is
10:34needed to complete the an activity that
10:36has to be estimated and finally for tool
10:38the total cost upon activity and what
10:41will the total cost of a project that
10:43also has to be estimated these are the
10:44fundamental estimation questions now
10:47let's see what are the sequences of the
10:49estimations that we have to follow first
10:51we have to determine size of the product
10:53and if the size is known from this
10:56height estimate we can determine the
10:58effort needed and from the import
11:00estimation from the estimated import we
11:03can determine the project duration and
11:05the cost so this sequence can be
11:07represented in the following graph you
11:09can see that first we have to estimate
11:11sides from side you can estimate the
11:13important duration and from important
11:16customer estimate the cost cost then
11:19from the import estimate any put on the
11:21estimated duration we can
11:22somebody at the project manager can
11:24estimate the stuff and then from the
11:26duration estimation and stop estimation
11:28so the project manager can prepare a
11:30schedule so now let's see what are the
11:34software cost components so we'll see
11:36that the followings are the software
11:39cost components firstly the hardware and
11:41software cost so the cost required to
11:45develop disappear and on which hardware
11:47it will run on what other hardware will
11:50be used to develop the software so those
11:52costs this is the hardware and software
11:54cost then travel and training cost that
11:57means the cost that is required to
11:59provide training to the employees and
12:01data and the travel associated with that
12:03they are also important constituent
12:05important components then another
12:07component the input cost which is very
12:09very important and finally we have to
12:11know what is the overhead that is that
12:14may be required for this project so out
12:16of this all the cost Hardware crossed is
12:19the dominant factor in most of the
12:21projects and here the celerity of the
12:23engineers involved in the project so
12:24that's why it may be what the most
12:28dominant factor it will contain it will
12:32contain much of the percentage of the
12:35total costs then overheads so overheads
12:38could be like the it is not for a what a
12:41single project but maybe what for
12:44different projects also here we have to
12:46take into account the cost of building
12:48heating lighting etcetera cost of
12:50networking and communications
12:51cost of shared facilities just like ass
12:54library staff restaurant etc so these
12:57may be treated as the corporates so
12:59these are the different the sub care
13:02cost components for developing a project
13:05now I told you one of the most important
13:08cost component each effort so how to
13:13measure the hood so in order to or I put
13:17the major
13:17inner to measure D put one terminal oh
13:20do you require that is known as person
13:22month which is very very associated
13:24which is very much associated with the
13:26import so suppose a project is estimated
13:27to take 300% months develop now what do
13:31we mean by this
13:31so each just one person working for
13:35three days
13:36so much 30% working for one day
13:39no certainly not
13:43then five so let's see in order to
13:45answer this question let's see how many
13:47hours constitute a man month so if will
13:50say that the default value is 152 hours
13:53per month that means so 19 days sum has
13:58to be worked at or some person has to
14:01work 19 days at 80 hours per day so why
14:06person month and not person days or
14:08person years so normally the modern
14:11projects typically takes a few months to
14:14come complete some projects may take
14:16more than what one year but modern
14:19projects the typical take a few months
14:21to complete so that's why person year
14:23it's clearly unsuitable to what forbids
14:27projects so for similarly percentage
14:30would be too much what small so
14:34percentage you will make monitoring and
14:35estimation overhead very difficult it is
14:38a third it will be large and tedious so
14:40hence we seem to try for what this is
14:44the middle one and that is the month so
14:47it will be a suitable measure - it's a
14:50futile metric to measure the effort so
14:52now let's see this costing and pricing
14:54so estimates are made to discover the
14:57cost of producing a software system so
14:59we have to prepare mr. my estimates to
15:02discover what will the cost of producing
15:04a software system so however you will
15:07observe that there is no such simple
15:09relationship between the development
15:11cost and the price that will be charged
15:14to the customer so the these now you
15:19know that this brother or organizational
15:21what considerations or economic
15:24political and business considerations
15:26they influence the price that will be
15:29charged to the customer so that's why
15:32you can see that there is no direct
15:33relationship simple relationship between
15:35the development cost of the project and
15:37the price and that will charge to the
15:39customer for what obtaining the project
15:41so the cost estimation process consists
15:46of it can be represented like this which
15:50to inputs what are the requirements and
15:52other coastal drivers and and after this
15:56estimation process we can get the import
15:59the development time we can get
16:01estimates for the import development
16:03time number of personnel is required and
16:05the cost of the project these are some
16:09of the factors those are affecting the
16:12supplier pricing such as a market
16:14opportunity this what you can say that
16:18this cost estimate uncertainty then
16:22these contractual terms requirements
16:24volatility and about what are the
16:27financial debt they are these are some
16:28of the factors which may affect the
16:31software pricing this is some pure watts
16:35of wisdom are given here like unless a
16:37software project it has clear
16:39definitions of its
16:40cliquey milestones and realistic
16:42estimates of the time and the money then
16:45what will happen the project manager
16:47cannot tell that whether it is very
16:50difficult project manager cannot tell
16:52whether the project is under control or
16:54beyond control so next is we're not the
16:58estimates required so during different
17:01phases of the project different
17:03estimates are required like in the
17:05initiation of page we want ester you
17:08want to what to be estimated the time
17:10cost and benefits estimates are required
17:12similarly do you think planning pets
17:14time estimates in project schedule cost
17:16estimators in project budget and cost
17:18and benefit estimates in business case
17:20they are required similarly during the
17:23start of the project stages what we
17:25require time and cost estimates the
17:28reconfirmed for this stage that that
17:30it's required these are some problems
17:34actually with estimating you know that
17:38this estimation of the project is highly
17:41subjective nature so this are the
17:44subjective nature of estimating it puts
17:46barriers do during estimation because
17:50this is highly what's objective as well
17:53as the political pressures that also
17:55create problems while estimation and you
17:58know that current technology is changing
18:00rapidly so changing of the technology
18:02also puts
18:03the idea for supper project estimation
18:06and finally you know the projects
18:08nowadays the what clients they are
18:11giving so they are while they are
18:14largely different in nature so the
18:16experience on one project may not be
18:18applicable to the other since the the
18:21nature of they are different so that
18:22will also what put some special
18:24difficulties in estimating the different
18:27the various factors the various
18:29parameters so now let us see two other
18:31important problems associated with
18:33estimation one is over under under over
18:35estimating and under the under
18:36estimating so over under under
18:38estimating and they are guided by two
18:40lots one is Parkinson Allah which said
18:42that work expands to fill all the time
18:46to time available that means if you are
18:48over estimated in the place of say 20
18:51days you have assigned super 30 days
18:53then what will happen that the work that
18:56will expand to fill the time available
18:57the people develop they will not they'll
19:01deliberately not work they will try that
19:02sometime it's still left will only so
19:06let's just wait even two days are left
19:08it will do those pending works in those
19:10days so the work expands to fill the
19:12time available this is the this is this
19:15will happen if you will overestimate the
19:17duration so IEPA underestimate
19:20advantages that there will be no
19:22overspend but the discipline that the
19:24system will be usually unpin unfinished
19:27and it will be substandard so another
19:32law that guides this over and under
19:35estimating problem is that we are in
19:39works 0 through op reliability it says
19:41that a subside project that does not
19:44have to meet a reliability requirement
19:46can meet any other requirement so if it
19:48does not require this reliability
19:51requirement it does not have to meet a
19:52reliability requirement it can meet any
19:54other requirement which is not desirable
19:57so the effect of under estimate isn't
19:59that the motivation and the morale will
20:04be lowered with high aggressive target
20:06and under estimation can lead to may be
20:09abandoned of the project because that
20:12developers they will respond to highly
20:15pressing the airline which
20:17so since there will be pressure because
20:19time is less they will compromise you
20:21the quality and they will produce
20:22somewhat substantial work so the project
20:25may get abundant so now let us see what
20:29are the basis for successful estimating
20:30so two important what two things are
20:33required one with information about
20:35similar past projects another is that we
20:38should know how to measure the amount of
20:41work involved we need to be or the
20:45project manager needs to be able to
20:46measure the amount of work that is
20:49involved in the project so the this will
20:51form the basis for the successful
20:53estimation okay so those things are
20:56there so for what measuring the amount
20:59of work involved we may use the
21:01traditional size measures such as LOC
21:04lines of code but we no LOC observe some
21:06special problems that we'll discuss in
21:08the next class and then refining
21:11estimates how to refine estimates I have
21:13already told you this estimate
21:15estimation is not done in one step you
21:17have to first do the initial estimation
21:21the project manager has to first do the
21:23initial estimation then gradually it has
21:26to be updated it has to be refined so
21:28now let's see what is the region for
21:30what adjusting this estimates for
21:33refining the estimates or for updating
21:34the estimates because the air
21:36interaction cost are hidden in estimates
21:38what are the interaction cost they are
21:40hidden they are not coming out you
21:43cannot you may not find out them which
21:45also have some impact and normal
21:49condition normal conditions may not
21:51apply so things may go wrong on
21:54different projects changes in projects
21:56there might be some changes in the
21:58project scope and plans so in order to
22:00incorporate all those things so the
22:02project manager should refine to adjust
22:05the estimates so adjusting estimates
22:08will see what the time and cost
22:09estimates of some activities that
22:12adjusted they are refined as the rigs
22:16resources and situation particulars
22:18become more clearly defined in later
22:21pages so they are journeyed that the
22:23project manager should are just or
22:25define the time and cost estimates of
22:28some specific activities
22:30so finally you can see that we have
22:33passed discussed the various activities
22:35which are carried out during the project
22:38planning so the arch we have seen
22:40estimation and scheduling stop
22:43organization as on some miscellaneous
22:46plants and these are carried out during
22:48about this project planning we have also
22:52seen that the outcome of project
22:55planning is a document called largess
22:57PMP or subtract project management plan
22:59document so here um now the contents we
23:03have discussed like such our
23:04introduction the various estimates and
23:07there will be a section also on the
23:09scheduling and miscellaneous ones etc
23:11also we have discussed some basic
23:13concepts of project estimation like what
23:18is the basis for project estimation how
23:21D ye projects the estimation does not
23:25become correct and we have also seen a
23:27sliding window estimation sliding window
23:31estimation because they are the project
23:33managers should not to do the estimation
23:35in one step in one page rather they
23:38should perform it in several stages so
23:40that the some more accurate information
23:42may get or may be obtained at the
23:45lateral pages which may be taken into
23:47account during the project estimation or
23:50the during the during computing the
23:52various estimates so that's why you
23:53should I use this sliding window
23:56estimation and I have already told you
23:59it should not be done in a single page
24:01rather than first the initial plan is
24:04made then gradually as in the some more
24:07updated information comes then you can
24:10or the project manager or can update or
24:13there are just these various estimates
24:17that will give you what more accurate
24:22estimates so these things we have seen
24:24right now and in the next class we'll
24:26discuss what are the various estimation
24:29what are the categories of what are the
24:32taxonomy for the estimation techniques
24:34also we'll discuss about this the size
24:39method because I have already told you
24:40the one of the initial major each side
24:44if you can estimate properly decides
24:46then you can estimate the other
24:48parameter so judge effect adoration
24:50effort duration and cost so that also
24:53will discuss in the next class like this
24:56size estimation okay so thank you very
24:59much these are the references thank you
25:07very much

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