'Labor are pannicking': political scientist on Jacinta Allan challenge | ABC NEWS — Transcript

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1. 0:00Let's get more now on the state of play
2. 0:01in Victorian politics. Premier Dinint
3. 0:04Allen is facing a leadership challenge
4. 0:06and may be offered the opportunity to
5. 0:08resign today. Rob Hoffman is a lecturer
6. 0:11in politics at Swinburn University and
7. 0:13he joins me now from Melbourne to
8. 0:14discuss all of this. Rob Hoffman, thank
9. 0:17you for your time this morning. Now,
10. 0:19tell us about this meeting last night.
11. 0:21It brings us to this week where we're
12. 0:22seeing Victoria's Premier, Desinta
13. 0:24Allen, facing a leadership challenge.
14. 0:25What's shifted here?
15. 0:27>> Yeah, good morning Gemma. Um, look,
16. 0:29fundamentally, uh, Labour are panicking
17. 0:32about the upcoming election. Um, four
18. 0:34months away, they're not doing very well
19. 0:35in the polls. Uh, and, you know, MPs are
20. 0:38starting to get concerned about their
21. 0:40own jobs and about, uh, the prospects
22. 0:42for Labor as a government going
23. 0:43forwards.
24. 0:44>> So, Justint Alan will be given the
25. 0:46opportunity, it said, to resign today.
26. 0:49What do we know of what that looks like
27. 0:50in practice and what we're likely to see
28. 0:53today?
29. 0:54So, so the opportunity to resign is
30. 0:56about trying to to demonstrate party
31. 0:59unity. Uh to say that this is not a
32. 1:01continuation of the political
33. 1:03instability that we've seen particularly
34. 1:05at the federal level over the past
35. 1:06couple of decades of of switches between
36. 1:09prime ministers of factions within
37. 1:11parties toppling uh sitting
38. 1:13democratically elected leaders. Um in
39. 1:16practice, it's the same thing. It's a
40. 1:17tap on the shoulder to say you don't
41. 1:19have the numbers, it's time to go. Um I
42. 1:21if there is a a resignation then it's a
43. 1:25peaceful transfer of power otherwise it
44. 1:28goes to a spill. Uh and the the my
45. 1:31understanding is the internal labor
46. 1:33rules mean that will be a bit of a
47. 1:34prolonged process um with voting by
48. 1:38labor membership more broadly.
49. 1:41>> And I mean just has been under pressure
50. 1:44for some time. If you could just sum up
51. 1:45why that is what would you say?
52. 1:48Well,
53. 1:49ordinarily this would be an election you
54. 1:52expect Labour to lose regardless of
55. 1:54context. They've been in power for 12
56. 1:56years now. It's a long-term government
57. 1:58weighed down by the baggage of debt, of
58. 2:01scandal, uh, and in big build
59. 2:03corruption, the um the confluence
60. 2:05between the two. That's particularly
61. 2:07damaging to Labor because their success
62. 2:09as a government has been as a government
63. 2:12that does things. in contrast to the
64. 2:13Baleo and Nap fund governments that came
65. 2:15before who really didn't do very much.
66. 2:17They've been a government that builds
67. 2:18infrastructure um gets major projects
68. 2:21done. [snorts]
69. 2:22But when the money runs out, when the
70. 2:26the projects run into corruption
71. 2:29scandals as we've seen with the big
72. 2:30build or we're seeing um that really
73. 2:32undermines the legitimacy of the
74. 2:34government. Uh Allan specifically um I
75. 2:38think you know she struggled not having
76. 2:40the the political capital that Daniel
77. 2:41Andrews had but also with big build uh
78. 2:45issues coming to a head her her personal
79. 2:48resistance to some form of commission of
80. 2:51inquiry into that um that corruption may
81. 2:54be a particular issue facing her and her
82. 2:57leadership
83. 2:59>> and I mean as we said this is just four
84. 3:00months out from the state election on on
85. 3:02one hand that does make the problem more
86. 3:03acute but It leaves very little time for
87. 3:06a new leader, whoever that should be.
88. 3:08What's the political logic at play here?
89. 3:11>> I mean, there's two parts of it. Like,
90. 3:13maybe it's a furniture saving exercise.
91. 3:15Maybe it is Labour members, of which
92. 3:17there are a lot, concerned, particularly
93. 3:19in marginal seats, about losing their
94. 3:20jobs. Um, if my job was up for a
95. 3:23Democratic election in four months, I'd
96. 3:25probably be panicking, too.
97. 3:26>> Yeah.
98. 3:28>> On the other hand, it is not an
99. 3:31unwinable election. the that the
100. 3:36or as I said ordinarily you'd expect
101. 3:38them to lose but the political dynamics
102. 3:40in Victoria in Australia more broadly
103. 3:43are very unstable at the moment. Um in
104. 3:45the last election you saw liberal
105. 3:47infighting really give Labor a new lease
106. 3:50of life. That seems to have been
107. 3:51resolved with the the end of the Moira
108. 3:53redeeming saga with with unity under
109. 3:55Jess Wilson. uh but one nation uh the
110. 3:58rise of one nation the the popularity of
111. 4:00one nation throws another really complex
112. 4:03factor into the logic. So with Labor the
113. 4:06coalition and one nation polling fairly
114. 4:08evenly um and the uncertainty of where
115. 4:11One Nation preferences flow because of
116. 4:13their lower party organization because
117. 4:15of the general anti-maajor party
118. 4:17sentiment of [clears throat] One Nation
119. 4:19voters a small increase in the Labour
120. 4:22vote you know might be enough to deliver
121. 4:23an improbable victory. So I if they
122. 4:26think they can reset their relationship
123. 4:30with the public uh through removing an
124. 4:32unpopular leader uh perhaps through um a
125. 4:35more aggressive response to these big
126. 4:38build issues, then you know that might
127. 4:40be enough.