'Labor are panicking': political scientist on Jacinta Allan challenge | ABC NEWS — Transcript

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1. 0:00Let's get more now on the state of play
2. 0:01in Victorian politics. Premier Jacinta
3. 0:04Allan is facing a leadership challenge
4. 0:06and may be offered the opportunity to
5. 0:08resign today. Rob Hoffman is a lecturer
6. 0:11in politics at Swinburne University and
7. 0:13he joins me now from Melbourne to
8. 0:14discuss all of this. Rob Hoffman, thank
9. 0:17you for your time this morning. Now,
10. 0:19tell us about this meeting last night.
11. 0:20It brings us to this week where we're
12. 0:22seeing Victoria's Premier Jacinta Allan
13. 0:24facing a leadership challenge. What's
14. 0:26shifted here?
15. 0:27>> Yeah, good morning, Gemma. Um look,
16. 0:29fundamentally uh Labor are panicking
17. 0:32about the upcoming election. Um
18. 0:344 months away, they're not doing very
19. 0:35well in the polls uh and you know, MPs
20. 0:38are starting to get concerned about
21. 0:39their own jobs and about uh the
22. 0:41prospects for Labor as a government
23. 0:43going forward.
24. 0:44>> So, Jacinta Allan will be given the
25. 0:46opportunity, it's said, to resign today.
26. 0:49What do we know of what that looks like
27. 0:50in practice and what we're likely to see
28. 0:53today?
29. 0:54>> So, so the opportunity to resign is
30. 0:56about trying to to demonstrate party
31. 0:59unity. Uh to say that this is not a
32. 1:01continuation of the political
33. 1:03instability that we've seen particularly
34. 1:05at the federal level over the past
35. 1:06couple of decades of of switches between
36. 1:09prime ministers of factions within
37. 1:11parties toppling uh sitting
38. 1:13democratically elected leaders. Um
39. 1:15in practice, it's the same thing. It's a
40. 1:17tap on the shoulder to say you don't
41. 1:18have the numbers, it's time to go. Um
42. 1:21if there is a a resignation, then it's a
43. 1:25peaceful transfer of power. Otherwise,
44. 1:27it goes to a spill uh and the the my
45. 1:31understanding is the internal Labor
46. 1:33rules mean that will be a bit of a
47. 1:34prolonged process um with voting by
48. 1:38Labor membership more broadly.
49. 1:40>> Mhm.
50. 1:41And I mean, Jacinta Allan, she has been
51. 1:43under pressure for some time. If you
52. 1:44could just sum up why that is, what
53. 1:46would you say?
54. 1:47>> Well,
55. 1:49ordinarily, this would be an election
56. 1:51you expect Labor to lose regardless of
57. 1:54context. They've been in power for 12
58. 1:56years now. It's a long-term government
59. 1:58weighed down by the baggage of debt, of
60. 2:01scandal, and in big build corruption,
61. 2:04the the confluence between the two.
62. 2:06That's particularly damaging to Labor
63. 2:07because their success as a government
64. 2:10has been as a government that does
65. 2:12things. In contrast to the Baillieu and
66. 2:14Napthine governments that came before,
67. 2:15who who really didn't do very much.
68. 2:17They've been a government that builds
69. 2:18infrastructure,
70. 2:20gets major projects done.
71. 2:22>> [snorts]
72. 2:22>> But it when the money runs out, when the
73. 2:26the projects run into corruption
74. 2:28scandals as we've seen with the big
75. 2:30build or we're seeing,
76. 2:32that really undermines the legitimacy of
77. 2:34the government.
78. 2:35Allan specifically,
79. 2:37I think you know she struggled not
80. 2:39having the the political capital that
81. 2:41Daniel Andrews had, but also with big
82. 2:44build issues coming to a head, her her
83. 2:47personal resistance to some form of
84. 2:50commission of inquiry into that
85. 2:53that corruption may be a particular
86. 2:55issue facing her and her leadership.
87. 2:59>> And I mean, as we said, this is just 4
88. 3:00months out from the state election. On
89. 3:02on one hand that does make the problem
90. 3:03more acute, but it leaves very little
91. 3:05time for a a new leader, whoever that
92. 3:07should be. What's the political logic at
93. 3:09play here?
94. 3:11>> I mean there's two parts to it. Like
95. 3:13maybe it's a furniture saving exercise.
96. 3:15Maybe it is Labor members, of which
97. 3:17there are a lot, concerned, particularly
98. 3:19in marginal seats, about losing their
99. 3:20jobs. Um
100. 3:22if my job was up for a democratic
101. 3:24election in 4 months, I'd probably be
102. 3:25panicking, too.
103. 3:28On the other hand, it is not an
104. 3:31unwinnable election. The the
105. 3:36As I said, ordinarily you'd expect them
106. 3:38to lose, but the political dynamics in
107. 3:41Victoria, in Australia more broadly, are
108. 3:43very unstable at the moment.
109. 3:45In the last election you saw Liberal
110. 3:47infighting really give Labor a new lease
111. 3:50of life. That seems to have been
112. 3:51resolved with the the end of the Moira
113. 3:53Deeming saga with with Unity under Jess
114. 3:55Wilson. Uh but One Nation, uh the rise
115. 3:58of One Nation, the the popularity of One
116. 4:00Nation throws
117. 4:02another really complex factor into the
118. 4:04logic. So, with Labor, the Coalition,
119. 4:06and One Nation polling fairly evenly, um
120. 4:09and the uncertainty of where One Nation
121. 4:11preferences flow because of their lower
122. 4:14party organization, because of the
123. 4:16general anti-major party sentiment of
124. 4:18[clears throat] One Nation voters,
125. 4:20a small increase in the Labor vote, you
126. 4:22know, might be enough to deliver an
127. 4:23improbable victory. So,
128. 4:26if they think they can reset their
129. 4:29relationship with the public uh through
130. 4:31removing an unpopular leader, uh perhaps
131. 4:33through um a a more aggressive response
132. 4:38to these big bill issues, then, you
133. 4:39know, that might be enough.