YT YouTube2Text

YouTube2Text → Transcripts → KRACH METALI SZLACHETNYCH! Srebro traci 50% wartości, a Polacy tracą miliony nafunduszach ETF.

KRACH METALI SZLACHETNYCH! Srebro traci 50% wartości, a Polacy tracą miliony nafunduszach ETF. — Transcript

by Comparic Global Markets · 2,643 words · 387 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

Open in transcriber Summarize with AI Download SRT/VTT

Full transcript

0:00Silver has lost more than half its
0:02value in less than 9 months. Gold is
0:05down by roughly a quarter since its
0:07January peak. During this time, the
0:10National Bank of Poland was buying gold
0:13faster than any other central bank in
0:15the world. And a Polish gold fund from
0:18the Warsaw Stock Exchange has lost more
0:20since its debut than gold itself. Hi,
0:22this is Marcin Wenus, and you are
0:24watching Compar Global Markets. In this
0:27weekend review of global markets, with
0:29a focus on ETFs as always, I’m
0:31looking at precious metals today. Back
0:34in January, gold and silver were
0:36breaking record after record, and
0:38everyone wanted them. Today, many
0:40people are looking at their funds in
0:42the red. Is this a bottom worth buying,
0:46or a trap that is just beginning?
0:50Let’s look for the answer together.
1:00First, the scale. At the end of January
1:03, an ounce of gold cost nearly 5,600
1:05dollars at its peak. By mid-October, it
1:08was only about 4,100. Silver at its
1:12peak exceeded 120 dollars per ounce. In
1:15October, it dropped to around 56
1:17dollars, the lowest since July. To get
1:21a feel for this, we converted it into
1:22the money you withdrew from your
1:24account. Whoever spent 100,000 PLN on
1:26silver in January has about 55,000 left
1:29in it today. With gold, from that same
1:32amount, you would have over 85,000 left
1:34. I’m calculating in zlotys. But why
1:36does it hurt less in zlotys? I’ll
1:38explain in a moment. What happened?
1:40Briefly, because this is just the
1:42background, not the main topic.
1:44Inflation in the US is accelerating
1:46again, and in September it was already
1:49close to 4%. The US central bank raised
1:52interest rates in September for the
1:54first time in three years, and the
1:56market expects that this is not the end
1:58. Long-term US government bonds are
2:02paying over 5%annually, the most in
2:04over two decades. And here is the whole
2:07mechanism. Gold pays no interest. As
2:10long as bonds yielded little, keeping a
2:13bar in a safe cost almost nothing,
2:15because there was no better alternative
2:17for money intended to wait out bad
2:19times. When the American government
2:22pays you over 5%annually to lend it
2:24money, every year in gold means those
2:26interest payments......that are
2:28slipping through your fingers. Add to
2:31that a strong dollar, and gold is
2:33priced globally in dollars. Why did
2:35silver get hit twice as hard? Because
2:37it is a more volatile market. So when a
2:39crowd of speculators looks for an exit
2:42at the same time, the price falls
2:44faster than anyone can react. Also,
2:46silver is half an industrial metal.
2:49Photovoltaics, which until recently was
2:51its great hope, is projected by
2:53industry forecasts to use significantly
2:55less of it this year than a year ago.
2:58Gold has one leg, silver has two, and
3:00both are being cut out from under it
3:03now. You can see it in one number. In
3:06January, for one ounce of gold you
3:09could buy about 46 ounces of silver,
3:11but today it is over 70. At the
3:15beginning of September, we told you
3:17that gold mining funds are a form of
3:18leverage, only it's built into the
3:20business rather than the fund's
3:22structure. A mine has fixed extraction
3:25costs that don't go down just because
3:27gold gets cheaper. So, every dollar up
3:30in gold almost entirely remains as
3:32profit, and every dollar down also
3:35entirely vanishes from it. Since that
3:38episode, gold has lost about 8%. The
3:42largest gold mining fund, VanEck Gold
3:44Miners, lost twice as much. On the
3:47other hand, from the July low to
3:50mid-October, gold rose by just under 3%
3:53, while the same fund rose by almost 17
3:55%. Leverage works both ways and doesn't
3:59ask which direction suits you at the
4:00moment. The episode about how retail
4:03investors rushed into mining stocks
4:04back then is now displayed at the top
4:06of the screen. The gold trap snapped
4:09shut for eight sessions back then.
4:11Today it's clear that it was only the
4:13beginning. But not all mines are
4:15created equal. Newmont, the world's
4:18largest gold producer, has lost roughly
4:20half as much on the stock market since
4:23the January peak of gold as the metal
4:25itself. Why do some companies hold up
4:28better than others? Most often, the
4:30answer lies in one column. How much
4:32does this company owe? With gold at $
4:355,000, every mine looks like a great
4:38deal. With falling gold, a company with
4:41high debt must pay banks from an
4:43increasingly thin margin, while a
4:45debt-free company simply waits it out.
4:48In InvestingPro, you have this on a
4:51single company card. Financial health
4:54on a scale of 1 to 5, debt, and fair
4:56value calculated by over a dozen models
4:59at once. I personally start with this
5:02card before I even open a quarterly
5:04report. Run this test on the mine you
5:08are eyeing and compare its debt to how
5:10much the company earns annually at
5:11today's gold price. And with the code "
5:15Comparic," you get a 15%discount on
5:17InvestingPro plans, calculated even
5:19from the price that is already on sale,
5:21because there is always some promotion.
5:24The tool is really, really cool. And
5:27who is selling? First, the speculators.
5:31Funds trading gold contracts reduced
5:33their bets on growth by almost 1/4 in a
5:36month and a half. And some Americans.
5:40Over $ 300 million flowed out of GLD,
5:43the world's largest gold fund, in one
5:46week in October. But in the same week,
5:50while Americans were withdrawing money
5:53from GLD, more than 360 million euros
5:55flowed into gold funds in Europe, even
5:57as the price was falling. And in the
6:02entire third quarter, gold funds
6:04worldwide received a record $ 31
6:06billion and today hold more gold than
6:09ever before. Money isn't fleeing gold;
6:12it's changing continents. The American
6:16share of gold held by funds is now at
6:18its lowest in nearly four years, and
6:21the biggest buyer...Central banks
6:22bought nearly 300 tons of gold in the
6:25second quarter, the most in
6:26second-quarter history. And in first
6:30place on this list isn't China; it's
6:32the National Bank of Poland. 51 tons in
6:36a single quarter. The Chinese central
6:38bank has been adding gold every month
6:41without a break for nearly two years,
6:43yet in the second quarter, they took
6:44less than we did. Meanwhile, Russia and
6:47Turkey were selling. At the end of
6:50August, the NBP had over 640 tons of
6:52gold in its vault. Governor
6:54Glapiński's goal is 700 tons. So the
6:58first thought is simple. If our central
7:01bank is buying at the bottom, then
7:02maybe I should too. Let's give the NBP
7:06its due. They bought gold back when it
7:08cost half as much as today, so even
7:10after this dip, they have an excellent
7:12return on it. However, that result is
7:16built on three things that you don't
7:18have. First, the NBP never has to sell.
7:21It doesn't have loan installments, a
7:23down payment, or retirement in a few
7:25years to worry about. Second. For a
7:27central bank, gold is an insurance
7:29policy. No one at the NBP calculates at
7:32year-end whether gold has made a profit
7:34, but rather whether the country has a
7:36reserve that no one can freeze, as
7:37Russia's reserves were frozen. Third.
7:40The NBP buys wholesale without the
7:42capital gains tax and without
7:44intermediary margins. You have
7:46deadlines, you have taxes, and you have
7:49nerves that told you to buy in January
7:51at the very peak, and today, after a
7:531/4 drop, tell you to sell everything.
7:56The fact that the NBP is buying tells
7:58you something about the world. It says
8:00nothing about your portfolio. A Pole
8:03who doesn't want to open an account
8:05abroad has two gold products and one
8:07silver product on the Warsaw Stock
8:08Exchange. The first is an ETC from the
8:12British Royal Mint. Behind every unit
8:16is a piece of a real bar in their vault
8:18, and quotes are in zloty, so the
8:20dollar exchange rate works for or
8:22against you here. Exactly as it does
8:26with gold bought at a mint. And the
8:28second is the newest one. PZU ETF Gold
8:30has been on the market since May, and
8:32it's the subject of the story that
8:34started this episode. Since its debut
8:37in May, PZU ETF Gold has lost about 15%
8:40. Gold itself in dollars dropped by
8:44roughly 13%in that time, while gold
8:46calculated in zloty only by about six.
8:50The same metal, the same period. Yet
8:52the fund from the WSE performs worse
8:54than both. Why? Because this fund is
8:57hedged against the dollar exchange rate
8:59. It is supposed to give you the gold
9:01result as if the zloty and dollar stood
9:03still, but they did not stand still.
9:05Since May, the dollar has risen by
9:07about 30 groszy. Whoever held gold
9:10without a hedge received a cushion from
9:12the dollar that absorbed a large part
9:14of the decline. A hedged fund, by
9:17design, gave that cushion up. On top of
9:20that, you aren't holding bars, but
9:22futures contracts that need to be
9:24swapped for new ones every few months,
9:26and that also costs money. A week ago,
9:29we showed you the other side of the
9:31same coin. A US stock fund, for which
9:34currency hedging provided almost 18%
9:37last year instead of three. If you
9:41missed it, the link is appearing on the
9:42screen right now. The conclusion from
9:45both episodes is the same. Hedging is
9:48neither good nor bad. It is a decision
9:51about the dollar that you make, whether
9:53you want to or not, which cost roughly
9:559 percentage points with gold since May
9:57. And honestly, today PZU takes nothing
10:01for managing this fund, but from the
10:04new year, it will start charging 4 PLN
10:06annually for every 1,000 you keep in it
10:09. There is a wider selection abroad,
10:12and you can get it through Polish
10:14brokers. The largest gold fund in
10:17Europe, iShares Physical Gold, costs a
10:19little over one zloty per thousand
10:22annually. For silver, there is, among
10:25others, iShares Physical Silver for 2
10:27PLN per 1,000. And here are two things
10:30that are rarely talked about. First,
10:32currency. These funds are calculated in
10:34dollars internally, even if you buy
10:36them in euros or pounds. So, you have
10:39exactly that dollar cushion in them
10:41that I was just talking about with the
10:43WSE fund. This year, the dollar is
10:46helping for now, but last year, when
10:48the dollar was losing against the zloty
10:50, it obviously worked the other way
10:52around. Second, and more importantly,
10:55an ETC is not a fund. Formally, you are
10:58buying a debt instrument from the
11:00issuer, i.e., their obligation to you,
11:02secured by physical gold lying in a
11:04vault. The metal is there, and that is
11:07a big advantage over products that only
11:09pretend to be gold. But there is also
11:12the issuer, and they are the one who
11:14owes you the metal. Brokers themselves
11:17warn about issuer risk with these
11:19instruments. And one more thing follows
11:21from this. For IKE and IKZE accounts,
11:24brokers usually write about stocks and
11:26ETFs, while an ETC is formally
11:28something else. So, before you buy gold
11:31for your retirement account, check in
11:33the app if that specific instrument can
11:35be bought there. Outside of IKE/IKZE,
11:38you will usually pay 19%tax on profit,
11:41just like on stocks. And if this
11:44structure sounds familiar, it's because
11:46cryptocurrency products from the Warsaw
11:48Stock Exchange are built exactly the
11:50same way. Also an issuer's security,
11:53also a physically purchased asset
11:55underneath. Only instead of a vault,
11:57there is a cold wallet disconnected
11:59from the internet and from crypto
12:01exchanges that hackers target. We asked
12:05Tomasz Wróbel, who runs Virtuse in
12:07Poland, a partner of this episode, what
12:09happens when you buy such a product for
12:12one Bitcoin. 1-to-1, like a bar in a
12:16vault. Virtuse has eight such products
12:19on the WSE in PLN that can be bought
12:21from a regular brokerage account. But
12:24remember that this structure protects
12:26against hacking, not against a price
12:28drop. Bitcoin, sometimes called digital
12:31gold, can lose half its value in a few
12:33months. Just like silver today, so you
12:37can lose part of your invested money.
12:40We have linked Virtuse in the
12:41description below the video. Buy. And
12:43this happens automatically. At the
12:45moment of purchasing an ETN for one
12:47bitcoin. At that same moment, via one
12:50of the largest crypto exchanges,
12:52Coinbase, that one Bitcoin is purchased
12:54, and that one bitcoin goes into cold
12:56storage outside the system, held by a
12:59custodian. The custodian is Coinbase
13:03itself, and it holds those crypto
13:05assets.
13:07>> Now, let's go back to the question from
13:09the beginning. History teaches two
13:11lessons, and both are uncomfortable.
13:13First, metal crashes can last for years
13:16. In 1980, silver lost nearly 80%, and
13:20it happened within just a few weeks. It
13:24then waited 45 years to hit its record
13:26from that time, only beating it a year
13:29ago. After its peak in 2011, gold fell
13:34for 4 years by a total of 45%, and it
13:36didn't see a new record until nine
13:38years later, when many of those who
13:41bought at the top had long since sold
13:43it. Who says a rebound must follow a
13:471/4 drop? They are talking about hope,
13:50not history. The second lesson is for
13:52those who bought earlier. Gold costs
13:55about the same today as it did a year
13:57ago, and 2 years ago it was over 1/3
13:59cheaper. Silver is still higher than it
14:02was a year ago. So, this crash
14:04primarily took away the euphoria from
14:06the turn of the year, not the entire
14:08growth. And it caught those who were
14:11buying in January just because everyone
14:13else around them was buying. That is
14:16why, instead of guessing the bottom,
14:18look at your reason. If gold is meant
14:20to be a policy in your portfolio for
14:22bad times, you keep it as a fixed part
14:24of your portfolio, add to it according
14:26to a plan, and don't check it daily,
14:28because you don't value an insurance
14:30policy every morning. If it was meant
14:33to be a quick profit, you just saw how
14:35much that profit can cost. I am being
14:38direct here; you won't get investment
14:40advice here. You will get a calculation
14:42that everyone has to make for
14:43themselves. And if you want to keep an
14:47eye on gold, silver, and central banks
14:49more often than once a week, in the
14:51Comparic Premium zone, our analysts
14:53track the commodities market in
14:55real-time along with data we can't fit
14:57into our episodes, and you can send
14:59them funds and companies to check. A
15:02link and a discount code are waiting in
15:04the description below the video. Are
15:06you holding gold as a policy, buying
15:09more after the drop, or have you just
15:11exited it? Let us know. I'm curious how
15:13many of you bought in January. Okay,
15:17silver lost half, gold 1/4, and the
15:19Polish gold fund performed worse than
15:22the metal itself due to currency
15:24hedging. Our central bank is buying the
15:27most in this story, but it is playing a
15:29completely different game than we are.
15:32In the coming weeks, I will be watching
15:34two things. The first is October 28th,
15:38when the US central bank will announce
15:40its interest rate decision, because the
15:42yield on bonds determines the cost of
15:44holding gold. The second is the next
15:48batch of data on central banks. If the
15:50NBP and China keep buying, someone is
15:53supporting this market. And if this
15:56review was useful to you, click the
15:58thumbs up, subscribe to the channel,
16:00and boost this content. My name is
16:02Marcin Wenus, and this was an ETF
16:04review on Compari Global Markets. We'll
16:07see you again in a week. Bye.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of KRACH METALI SZLACHETNYCH! Srebro traci 50% wartości, a Polacy tracą miliony nafunduszach ETF. by Comparic Global Markets , generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 2,643 words across 387 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

What you can do with it

Use the transcript to take notes, quote the speaker, build a study guide, generate a summary with ChatGPT or Claude via the YouTube Summary tool, or export it as a timed subtitle file with YouTube to SRT. You can also re-open it in the transcriber to translate the transcript into 100+ languages.

Free YouTube transcript tool

YouTube2Text is a free YouTube transcript generator — no signup, no daily limit. Paste any YouTube link and get the full transcript instantly, with timestamps, click-to-jump, translation to 100+ languages, AI prompts for ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, and exports to TXT, SRT, VTT, or Markdown.