תגידו ביי לקניות ברשת? התרחיש שעלול לשתק את המשק הישראלי — Transcript

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1. 0:00Forget about the elections for a second
2. 0:01. In a country where things happen at
3. 0:03such a crazy pace, it’s quite amazing
4. 0:04that this bit only happened two weeks
5. 0:06ago.
6. 0:06>> You have to realize that there could be
7. 0:08sanctions, and with banking sanctions,
8. 0:10you need to organize a workaround
9. 0:11economy, and you know what that is, you
10. 0:13know what these market currencies are
11. 0:14that bypass it, and I like talking about
12. 0:16that too.
13. 0:17>> Just before the elections, Prime
14. 0:18Minister Netanyahu warned against a wave
15. 0:20of sanctions on Israeli banks, and the
16. 0:22truth is that this is a particularly
17. 0:24serious threat to the Israeli economy.
18. 0:25So much so that we thought it was worth
19. 0:27dwelling on for just one more moment.
20. 0:29Forget about the workaround economy and
21. 0:31crypto and all that for a second; we’ve
22. 0:33talked about that enough. Let’s talk
23. 0:35about the sanctions themselves, because
24. 0:36this is a big, tangible day that will
25. 0:38affect all of our lives here. So, once
26. 0:40and for all, let's break it down. Who
27. 0:42wants to impose these sanctions? Why the
28. 0:44banks specifically? And what will that
29. 0:46do to us? Give me a minute. This threat
30. 0:48of sanctions is, in my opinion, an
31. 0:49under-discussed threat, but there are
32. 0:51those keeping their eyes on this ball.
33. 0:53The Jewish People Policy Institute is
34. 0:55monitoring all these sanctions and has
35. 0:57done a complete mapping.
36. 0:59According to this mapping, there are 131
37. 1:01sanctions on Israel from 57 countries or
38. 1:04entities; some are academic, some are on
39. 1:06specific Israelis, but definitely not
40. 1:08only that. The one leading this effort
41. 1:10right now is Britain. In mid-October, a
42. 1:12sanctions regime already came into
43. 1:14effect there against companies,
44. 1:15contractors, and financial bodies that
45. 1:17fund construction in the settlements.
46. 1:19The trigger: A government decision to
47. 1:21build 1,200 housing units in the E1 area
48. 1:23, an area that connects Jerusalem to
49. 1:25Ma'ale Adumim. This is an area that has
50. 1:27been in international diplomatic dispute
51. 1:29for decades. Currently, 11 other Western
52. 1:31countries are participating in this
53. 1:33sanctions circle, from Canada to Sweden
54. 1:35.
55. 1:36They are mainly boycotting products
56. 1:37coming from the settlements, but Britain
57. 1:39is trying to expand it—both the circle
58. 1:41of countries and the sanctions
59. 1:43themselves; it is trying to make it so
60. 1:44that it is simply forbidden to do
61. 1:46business with Israeli banks, and that is
62. 1:48where the truly great danger lies.
63. 1:51Banks are like the blood vessel system
64. 1:53of any modern economy. Without them,
65. 1:55there are no loans, no businesses, no
66. 1:57salaries, no construction—not even in
67. 1:59the settlements. If Britain and other
68. 2:01countries declare Israeli banks as
69. 2:02pariahs, it means foreign banks won't be
70. 2:04able to work with them, because then
71. 2:06they themselves would be exposed to
72. 2:07sanctions. An Israeli pharmaceutical
73. 2:10plant that wants to continue selling its
74. 2:11medicine to Germany won't be able to,
75. 2:13because the German bank won't be willing
76. 2:15to transfer the payment. An importer
77. 2:17wants tahini from the Netherlands; the
78. 2:18supplier doesn't work with a sanctioned
79. 2:20bank, so there's no tahini. And this is
80. 2:22already particularly dangerous because
81. 2:24Britain and the European Union are not
82. 2:26just any countries; these are our main
83. 2:28trading partners, and banking sanctions
84. 2:30from them could carry a very heavy price
85. 2:32. Remember the settlers whose accounts
86. 2:34were frozen by Bank Leumi in 2024? Well
87. 2:37, like that, but for the entire economy
88. 2:39. Already today, Israeli academia and
89. 2:41culture are being boycotted.
90. 2:43Recently, Israelis flying to the
91. 2:45Netherlands reported that at the airport
92. 2:46, they searched their bags to see if
93. 2:48they brought products from the
94. 2:49settlements.
95. 2:51The official at Schiphol doesn't know
96. 2:52how to distinguish between Har Bracha
97. 2:54tahini and Prince tahini. All of Israel
98. 2:56is being boycotted. The Milk&Honey
99. 2:58distillery, whose whiskey was named the
100. 3:00best in the world a few years ago, lost
101. 3:02half of its customers. Because Israel
102. 3:04has become a pariah. And this is
103. 3:05happening right now. This is before the
104. 3:07big wave. To get an idea of what a big
105. 3:09wave of sanctions looks like.
106. 3:11Just look at Russia. A superpower that
107. 3:13spent years preparing for war, preparing
108. 3:15for sanctions. And yet, in 2022, the
109. 3:18West froze about 300 billion dollars of
110. 3:20the reserves it had set aside. Right?
111. 3:22The Russian automotive industry
112. 3:24collapsed almost entirely.
113. 3:26By two-thirds; one Russian automaker
114. 3:28kept producing cars but without airbags
115. 3:30.
116. 3:31They couldn't be installed. And Iran,
117. 3:33when the US sanctions returned in 2018,
118. 3:36its oil exports. Shrank to a tenth, and
119. 3:38inflation jumped from 10%a year to over
120. 3:4150%. And yet, both are surviving. How?
121. 3:44Mainly because they have oil, and oil
122. 3:46can be sold on the black market through
123. 3:48all kinds of routes that bypass
124. 3:49sanctions. Israel doesn't—we mainly have
125. 3:52high-tech, and high-tech, well, you
126. 3:54can't smuggle that in tankers. But wait
127. 3:56, because that's nothing compared to the
128. 3:58grand finale: when the United States
129. 4:00decides to impose sanctions on banks in
130. 4:02Israel.
131. 4:03The United States is the real deal; in
132. 4:05the end, the deep cooperation we have
133. 4:07with them is one of our most strategic
134. 4:09assets, but also one of our biggest
135. 4:11vulnerabilities. Remember that during
136. 4:13the war there was a moment they didn't
137. 4:15send us ammunition, and then we were in
138. 4:17trouble? So sanctions are exactly the
139. 4:18same thing, only 100 times worse; public
140. 4:21opinion in the US towards Israel has
141. 4:23changed very much for the worse.
142. 4:25There are many elected Democratic
143. 4:26officials who have already proposed
144. 4:28imposing sanctions on Israel—even in the
145. 4:30field of armaments and academia, which
146. 4:32is bad in itself. Even now, after the
147. 4:34midterm elections, the American
148. 4:36president can still block sanctions if
149. 4:38Congress decides to impose them, but in
150. 4:402028.
151. 4:44A Democratic president will be elected
152. 4:45and the anti-Israel sentiment remains as
153. 4:47it is; then for the first time we might
154. 4:49discover that our American friends have
155. 4:51imposed sanctions on Israeli banks.
156. 4:59>> Rahm Emanuel, a possible candidate for
157. 5:01the Democrats for the US presidency, has
158. 5:03already announced that he is in favor of
159. 5:05sanctions on Israeli banks due to
160. 5:07financing construction in the
161. 5:09settlements. And if such a thing happens
162. 5:11, the engine of our economy, high-tech,
163. 5:13will freeze. The large American
164. 5:14companies operating in Israel that
165. 5:16employ tens of thousands of workers,
166. 5:17from Google to Nvidia, won't be able to
167. 5:19continue doing so because it will be
168. 5:21impossible to even transfer salaries to
169. 5:22their employees. There will be no exits
170. 5:24, there will be no tax payments to the
171. 5:26state, our standard of living will
172. 5:27plummet. Along the way, you can say
173. 5:29bye-bye to online shopping, bye-bye to
174. 5:31trips abroad. Okay?
175. 5:33After we scared you, none of this is
176. 5:35going to happen just like that tomorrow
177. 5:37morning. Britain, meanwhile, is moving
178. 5:39forward; Trump could have stopped it, he
179. 5:41chose not to. It doesn't matter, we have
180. 5:43two more years until the US presidential
181. 5:45elections. Forget about it, crypto and
182. 5:46blockchain are total nonsense; the Bank
183. 5:48of Israel itself said that none of that
184. 5:51really knows how to deal with financial
185. 5:53sanctions. There is no way to prepare
186. 5:55for sanctions, you have to prevent the
187. 5:57sanctions, which means the Israeli
188. 5:58government needs to send a very, very
189. 6:00clear message to the world, especially
190. 6:02to the Americans.
191. 6:04By the way, we are a sovereign state,
192. 6:06but we also want to be part of the
193. 6:08global game.
194. 6:10How do we dance this delicate tango?
195. 6:12I don’t know, I’m just a journalist, but
196. 6:14I do know who should know, and that
197. 6:16brings me to the recent elections: the
198. 6:18party leaders who are currently
199. 6:19scratching their heads on how to form a
200. 6:21government.
201. 6:22And it will be hard, maybe even very
202. 6:24hard, maybe it won't even succeed, I
203. 6:26don't know. What I do know is that just
204. 6:28now these public officials asked for our
205. 6:30everything because they claim to know
206. 6:32how to lead this country to a better
207. 6:34future—so let them do it.
208. 6:35Dealing with the sanctions must be part
209. 6:37of their plans, because at least for now
210. 6:39, this is the biggest day for the
211. 6:41Israeli economy in the short term.
212. 6:43And in my personal opinion at least, the
213. 6:45composition of the government will
214. 6:47affect the height of the wave, for
215. 6:48better or for worse, whether we like it
216. 6:50or not.
217. 6:51The Americans have already warned that
218. 6:53if certain people are in the next
219. 6:55government, it will be very difficult
220. 6:56for them to stop these sanctions.
221. 6:59Now, we are a sovereign state, we can
222. 7:01decide whatever we want, we decide for
223. 7:03ourselves, not the Americans, but every
224. 7:05decision has a price.
225. 7:07The hourglass is ticking.
226. 7:09We have two years at most to defuse this
227. 7:11bomb.
228. 7:17It is time we got started..