JPモルガンが衝撃予測！ビットコインは今後10年、株も金も上回る？暗号資産最新ニュース！ — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Hello everyone, welcome. Hello there.
2. 0:02As for today's crypto market, Bitcoin
3. 0:04is currently at $ 81,990; after a sharp
4. 0:07dip toward $ 81,000 yesterday, it
5. 0:09bounced back, showing continued
6. 0:12resilience recently. I'd like to look
7. 0:14at the trends to see if we can expect a
8. 0:16short-term rebound from here. And
9. 0:17looking at the mid-to-long-term
10. 0:19perspective for Bitcoin. Yesterday, the
11. 0:21world's largest bank, JPMorgan, finally
12. 0:24announced they will use the Ethereum
13. 0:26chain. Furthermore, they have named
14. 0:29Bitcoin as the asset with the best
15. 0:30performance over the next decade. I
16. 0:32will break down this report for you in
17. 0:34an easy-to-understand way today. Please
18. 0:36make sure to subscribe to the channel.
19. 0:41So, in today's crypto market, Bitcoin
20. 0:43is at 13.25 million yen, down 1.3%. As
21. 0:46for Ether, it is at 389,000 yen, a 1.2%
22. 0:49decline. The altcoin market, and indeed
23. 0:51the entire crypto market, is pulling
24. 0:53back today, but there hasn't been any
25. 0:55major price action. Lately, it has been
26. 0:57hard to move in either direction, and
27. 0:58this stagnant situation is continuing.
28. 1:02With the FOMC meeting coming up next
29. 1:04week, it's highly likely that we won't
30. 1:06see any major movements until then.
31. 1:08This is the morning analysis from
32. 1:10GloWes. Registration takes only a
33. 1:12minute, and you can receive this column
34. 1:13for free every morning. You can also
35. 1:15learn my trading methods systematically
36. 1:17through 100 lecture videos, so please
37. 1:19go ahead and register via the
38. 1:20description box. Regarding yesterday's
39. 1:22U.S. stock market, the Nasdaq rose by
40. 1:25over 1%. This is likely due to bargain
41. 1:27hunting in sectors like semiconductors
42. 1:29and AI stocks, which saw significant
43. 1:31drops last week. However, U.S. crude
44. 1:34oil futures rose over 2%yesterday,
45. 1:36driven by concerns over attacks on
46. 1:38energy facilities in the Middle East.
47. 1:41With oil still hovering above $ 100 a
48. 1:43barrel, if these high prices persist,
49. 1:45it will inevitably impact inflation and
50. 1:47lead to concerns over further interest
51. 1:49rate hikes. However, the probability of
52. 1:51a rate hike at this month's FOMC
53. 1:53meeting has dropped to around 17%. Even
54. 1:56though last month's CPI and PPI figures
55. 1:58were up, the market currently expects
56. 2:00that they might hold off for now,
57. 2:02though it's a bit unclear; that said,
58. 2:04the prevailing view is that there will
59. 2:05definitely be at least one more rate
60. 2:07hike before the year ends. If they were
61. 2:09to raise rates in October amidst this
62. 2:10current climate, that would be pretty
63. 2:12disastrous, wouldn't it? Yes. I want to
64. 2:14make sure we keep a close watch on
65. 2:15those developments in our future
66. 2:17outlook as well. Now, let's take a look
67. 2:19at the cryptocurrency-related news.
68. 2:20While the NASDAQ has rebounded by over
69. 2:231%, Bitcoin is trading around $ 82,000.
70. 2:25I'd like to look at this article from
71. 2:27the US edition of CoinDesk; Bitcoin
72. 2:29briefly rebounded to $ 83,000 yesterday
73. 2:31, but after that, it faced significant
74. 2:34resistance during US trading hours,
75. 2:36pulling back to around $ 82,000, which
76. 2:38is the current trend. As for the NASDAQ
77. 2:41, it is up by 1%. On the other hand,
78. 2:45the US 10-year Treasury yield remains
79. 2:47at a high level exceeding 5%, and this
80. 2:49article points out that whether or not
81. 2:51it can break through the $ 84,000 level
82. 2:53is currently being closely watched.
83. 2:58Another point mentioned is the $ 81,000
84. 3:00mark as a support line. This is the
85. 3:03same $ 81,000 price range I've been
86. 3:04talking about for a while, and it's
87. 3:06clearly being watched very closely by
88. 3:08the market. Whether or not that level
89. 3:10can hold is the key. Looking at the
90. 3:12daily chart, we're right at the point
91. 3:14where the 50-day moving average is
92. 3:15testing support, which this article
93. 3:17also points out. Since the 50-day
94. 3:20moving average is closely watched by
95. 3:22the market, whether it can hold is
96. 3:24being seen as a crucial turning point.
97. 3:27Lately, the Nasdaq has been on a
98. 3:29downward trend from its highs, but
99. 3:30Bitcoin has actually been holding up
100. 3:32quite well. Looking ahead, whether the
101. 3:38U.S. Nasdaq can sustain its upward
102. 3:40momentum will definitely impact Bitcoin
103. 3:42, but last week, the Nasdaq was
104. 3:43consistently in a decline. So, what is
105. 3:48happening with AI-related stocks in
106. 3:50this context? Yes. I think we should
107. 3:52take a look at that. That brings us to
108. 3:54this news. Semiconductor stocks have
109. 3:58lost $ 2 trillion in eight days,
110. 4:00fueling concerns and fears that the AI
111. 4:02bubble might be bursting. If you look
112. 4:08at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
113. 4:10, it dropped more than 11%last week.
114. 4:14That marked eight consecutive days of
115. 4:16declines, which is actually the longest
116. 4:18losing streak since 2008. So why has
117. 4:21the sense of alarm and caution
118. 4:23regarding AI-related stocks risen so
119. 4:25sharply recently? One factor being
120. 4:28cited is that U.S. long-term interest
121. 4:29rates are simply too high. Well, AI
122. 4:33companies are making massive
123. 4:34investments right now, but as interest
124. 4:36rates rise, repayment amounts increase,
125. 4:38which could significantly burden these
126. 4:40companies; I think there’s a real
127. 4:42sense of crisis regarding that. Then
128. 4:45there’s CoreWeave, which has been
129. 4:47quite a hot topic lately; they are a
130. 4:48company that provides the computing
131. 4:50power needed for AI. Since they are
132. 4:52also making massive investments, they
133. 4:54are extremely susceptible to the impact
134. 4:56of interest rates. Yes. I think this
135. 4:58sense of crisis is what led to the drop
136. 4:59in stock prices. And then there's the
137. 5:01other issue regarding the massive
138. 5:02investments in AI. The question of
139. 5:03whether these investments can truly be
140. 5:05recouped is a problem that’s been
141. 5:06pointed out for a long time. Yes.
142. 5:08Opinions on the long-term outlook for
143. 5:10this have recently started to diverge.
144. 5:12People are saying that this is likely
145. 5:14why the market has seen a recent
146. 5:15decline. Even so, Bitcoin is actually
147. 5:17holding up relatively well. Despite the
148. 5:22decline in the Nasdaq, Bitcoin is
149. 5:24moving sideways and holding steady, but
150. 5:26there is no upward pressure like
151. 5:27we’ve seen before, so I think the
152. 5:29current macroeconomic environment is
153. 5:31clearly having an effect on Bitcoin.
154. 5:35Amidst all this, how is MicroStrategy,
155. 5:38the world’s largest corporate holder
156. 5:40of Bitcoin, handling this situation?
157. 5:42Yes. If we look at them, it turns out
158. 5:44they have actually started buying
159. 5:46Bitcoin again recently. Last week, they
160. 5:48added a total of 3.4 billion yen worth
161. 5:51of Bitcoin, marking five consecutive
162. 5:53weeks of purchases. However, they
163. 5:55aren't on the kind of massive Bitcoin
164. 5:57buying spree they once were. While they
165. 5:59are increasing their Bitcoin holdings,
166. 6:01what they are buying back in
167. 6:03overwhelmingly larger amounts is their
168. 6:04own preferred stock, MSTR. So, it seems
169. 6:09they have halted the previous trend of
170. 6:12aggressively issuing MSTR shares to
171. 6:14raise massive amounts of capital for
172. 6:16Bitcoin purchases; instead, they appear
173. 6:18to be focusing on supporting the MSTR
174. 6:20stock price to stabilize their capital,
175. 6:22while simultaneously trying to restore
176. 6:24confidence in MSTR. At the same time,
177. 6:29they continue to buy small amounts of
178. 6:31Bitcoin steadily, which I believe
179. 6:33indicates they are shifting toward a
180. 6:35more mature strategy. As for whether
181. 6:39this is perceived negatively or
182. 6:40positively, I think this is the most
183. 6:42important thing for them to survive in
184. 6:44the long term. After all, to keep
185. 6:47buying Bitcoin in the future, if MSTR
186. 6:49stock isn't performing healthily, it
187. 6:51will become harder to raise funds, so
188. 6:53it is said that they are creating a
189. 6:55very positive trend for their future
190. 6:57strategy. Bitcoin certainly has high
191. 7:00volatility in the short term, but from
192. 7:02a long-term perspective in the coming
193. 7:04era, this market environment is clearly
194. 7:06set to change. Blockchain and crypto
195. 7:09assets are gradually being integrated
196. 7:11into Wall Street finance. I believe
197. 7:12this trend has been accelerating
198. 7:14significantly lately. In fact, we
199. 7:16received some very important news
200. 7:17yesterday amidst all this. It is this.
201. 7:20JPMorgan announced that they will be
202. 7:22issuing their JPM Coin on the Ethereum
203. 7:24network. JPMorgan’s JPM Coin is a
204. 7:27deposit token backed by the US dollar.
205. 7:30Until now, they had been deploying this
206. 7:31on their base chain. Following that,
207. 7:35they announced yesterday that they have
208. 7:37launched on Ethereum, marking their
209. 7:38expansion to a second public blockchain
210. 7:40. Yes. What is this JPM Coin? It's a
211. 7:44deposit token designed to allow US
212. 7:46dollars held at JPMorgan to be
213. 7:48transferred on the blockchain. It’s a
214. 7:50token you receive upon making a deposit
215. 7:52, so unlike common stablecoins like
216. 7:55USDT or USDC, it’s based on bank
217. 7:56deposits and is primarily designed for
218. 7:59institutional investors and
219. 8:00corporations. However, I think they
220. 8:02will likely offer this to retail
221. 8:04customers in the future as well. A very
222. 8:06significant aspect of this news is that
223. 8:08by using bank deposits for fund
224. 8:10transfers, it enables DeFi-like
225. 8:12operations. Furthermore, it completely
226. 8:15solves the traditional banking pain
227. 8:18point of not being available 24/7, 365
228. 8:20days a year, which is why it's expected
229. 8:22to gain widespread adoption. While it's
230. 8:29easy to imagine transferring these
231. 8:31deposit tokens within JPMorgan's own
232. 8:33closed network, I find it truly
233. 8:34revolutionary that they are expanding
234. 8:36this business onto public blockchains
235. 8:38like Ethereum. It really feels like the
236. 8:45times are changing, but as for the
237. 8:47background behind why they launched on
238. 8:49Ethereum, JPMorgan specifically cites
239. 8:51reliability. Ethereum already has
240. 8:55sufficient liquidity, and there are a
241. 8:57vast number of tokenized assets already
242. 8:59existing on the Ethereum chain. As
243. 9:02various real-world assets continue to
244. 9:04migrate to the blockchain, the Ethereum
245. 9:06chain is likely to be the most widely
246. 9:08adopted. In other words, they’ve
247. 9:10brought JPM Coin to where the demand is
248. 9:12highest. Well, that seems to be the
249. 9:14philosophy behind it. Building on that,
250. 9:16JPMorgan has indicated their
251. 9:18expectation that JPM Coin transactions
252. 9:20will continue to expand significantly,
253. 9:22and I think this is truly a massive
254. 9:24trend when viewed from a long-term
255. 9:26perspective. Of course, just because
256. 9:28there is this news, it doesn't mean
257. 9:30Ethereum's price will definitely rise;
258. 9:32we can't say that at all, but the more
259. 9:34the Ethereum chain is used, the more
260. 9:36ETH itself gets burned, and I believe
261. 9:38the amount of staking will likely
262. 9:40increase as well. If that leads to
263. 9:42deflationary pressure, it could
264. 9:44naturally drive Ethereum's price higher
265. 9:46. I think there is a very real
266. 9:48possibility that things will move in
267. 9:49that direction. Well, JPMorgan has
268. 9:51taken a very negative stance on
269. 9:53cryptocurrency in the past, but
270. 9:54recently they've done a 180-degree turn
271. 9:57in their thinking, realizing that the
272. 9:59only way not to be left behind is to
273. 10:01adopt blockchain technology. On top of
274. 10:03that, there are probably requests
275. 10:04coming from their clients as well. I
276. 10:06believe that is the direction things
277. 10:08are heading now. In the midst of all
278. 10:12this, JPMorgan has released this
279. 10:14document, and Matt Hougan from Bitwise
280. 10:16cited it to show how high the
281. 10:18confidence in Bitcoin really is;
282. 10:20basically, this document outlines
283. 10:21JPMorgan's projections for the
284. 10:23performance and growth of various
285. 10:25assets over the next 10 years. When you
286. 10:30look at it, the asset they actually
287. 10:32predict will have the highest
288. 10:33performance is Bitcoin. Looking here at
289. 10:37the expected annualized return, it is
290. 10:39set at 10%. So, for US REITs, which are
291. 10:42at 8.2%, and small-cap stocks, which
292. 10:44are forecasted at 7.7%, the suggestion
293. 10:46is that these figures point to Bitcoin
294. 10:49experiencing significant growth. By the
295. 10:52way, they’re even predicting 5.5%for
296. 10:54gold. The forecast is that Bitcoin's
297. 10:56long-term returns going forward will be
298. 10:58quite substantial. Of course, one thing
299. 11:01to note is the volatility forecast for
300. 11:04Bitcoin, which is surprisingly set at
301. 11:0655%. That’s about triple the 18%
302. 11:09estimated for US large-cap stocks. So,
303. 11:13while JP Morgan reports that we can
304. 11:15expect high long-term returns, the
305. 11:17short-term price swings are incredibly
306. 11:19large. As this clearly shows, Bitcoin
307. 11:22has always had that nature. I believe
308. 11:27the most important strategy is to have
309. 11:28faith in its long-term growth and hold
310. 11:30onto it firmly; if it drops in the
311. 11:32short term, you should buy more and not
312. 11:34sell your position. That is what I’ve
313. 11:38been doing consistently. With many
314. 11:42uncertainties ahead—such as whether
315. 11:43the Fed will continue to raise rates,
316. 11:45how long inflation will last, the
317. 11:47midterm elections and whether the
318. 11:49Republicans will actually win, and the
319. 11:51unpredictable situation in Iran—
320. 11:52Bitcoin's volatility is expected to
321. 11:54remain high. I think it’s crucial not
322. 11:58to let those short-term price movements
323. 12:00shake you, but instead keep your eyes
324. 12:02on the long term and hold. Well, for
325. 12:04important and latest news regarding
326. 12:06those areas, I provide
327. 12:07easy-to-understand daily updates on my
328. 12:09channel, so please subscribe so you
329. 12:11don't miss out. Lastly, let's take a
330. 12:13look at a few things regarding the
331. 12:14current state of Bitcoin. First,
332. 12:16looking at the Bitcoin spot ETF market,
333. 12:18we saw some decent inflows for the
334. 12:19first time in a while yesterday, so I
335. 12:21think whether we can see a trend
336. 12:23reversal from here is something to
337. 12:24watch very closely. However, we likely
338. 12:26won't see any major developments until
339. 12:28next week's FOMC. Also, with the
340. 12:30midterm elections coming up, I don't
341. 12:31think many people will feel comfortable
342. 12:33saying, "Okay, I'm going to seriously
343. 12:34buy Bitcoin now" in this climate.
344. 12:36Considering that, I basically think the
345. 12:37current range-bound market is likely to
346. 12:39continue for the time being. With that
347. 12:41external environment in mind, I would
348. 12:42like to get into today's market
349. 12:43analysis. Right. Let's start by looking
350. 12:45at the Bitcoin daily chart. Bitcoin is
351. 12:47currently at 81,890 dollars, and we are
352. 12:49seeing some firm movement in the short
353. 12:51term. Regarding this price range, it's
354. 12:53hovering around the 81,000 dollar level
355. 12:54, so I think the main focus for now is
356. 12:56whether or not it can hold this support
357. 12:58. Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, the
358. 13:00moving averages have also become quite
359. 13:02tightly clustered. Within that, the
360. 13:04upside is being quite suppressed, so we
361. 13:06are in a situation where the downside
362. 13:08is firm, but the upside is heavy. In
363. 13:10that context, with the FOMC next week,
364. 13:12uncertainty is extremely high. For a
365. 13:14while, considering the consolidation
366. 13:16between these moving averages, the
367. 13:17floor is around 80,000 dollars, and the
368. 13:19ceiling is around 83,000 dollars. I
369. 13:21think it's highly likely that we will
370. 13:23see movement within a very narrow range
371. 13:24around those levels for the time being.
372. 13:27If it can maintain this range for a
373. 13:29while longer, I believe we will enter a
374. 13:31phase where the daily moving averages
375. 13:33converge again, which should strengthen
376. 13:34the support and allow for an upward
377. 13:36move. I think there is a high
378. 13:39possibility that a sideways trend will
379. 13:41continue for a while. Next, Ethereum is
380. 13:43currently at 2405, and it is
381. 13:45persistently trying to hold this
382. 13:48important 2400 level. We are seeing
383. 13:50many lower shadows forming like this,
384. 13:52showing it is not easily breaking down,
385. 13:54which suggests that while the upside
386. 13:56remains heavy, the downside is quite
387. 13:58firm. In the short term, it is starting
388. 14:00to look like it has bottomed out, so it
389. 14:02wouldn't be surprising if it tests the
390. 14:03upside soon. If it does test higher,
391. 14:06the 2500 level will be crucial; I
392. 14:08expect a rebound toward that area to
393. 14:10see if it can break through, or perhaps
394. 14:12a short-term pullback followed by an
395. 14:14ascending triangle or an inverse
396. 14:16head-and-shoulders pattern before
397. 14:17moving up. My forecast for the
398. 14:20immediate future is a sideways trend
399. 14:22rather than a major decline. Moving on
400. 14:24to XRP, it is currently at 1.30, and it
401. 14:27is also managing to hold onto this
402. 14:29level. With the lower shadows extending
403. 14:31recently, we have confirmed a certain
404. 14:32level of buying pressure from below.
405. 14:34The situation for this is much the same
406. 14:36. With firm support and heavy
407. 14:37resistance, I expect the range-bound
408. 14:39market between 1.3 and 1.4 to continue
409. 14:41for a while. Next is Solana, currently
410. 14:44at 104 dollars, which has also become
411. 14:46very firm. However, since trading
412. 14:49volume is declining, it looks like
413. 14:50active buying and selling are being
414. 14:52held back. Yes. On the daily chart, it
415. 14:55has fallen below all three moving
416. 14:57averages, so even if it rallies back
417. 14:58toward 110 in the short term, we must
418. 15:00always consider the possibility of
419. 15:02further selling. From a medium-term
420. 15:03perspective, I think it will likely
421. 15:05move sideways around this level. Next,
422. 15:07the Ondo token is currently at 0.43, so
423. 15:09it’s in a situation where it's either
424. 15:10going to hold this key line or break
425. 15:12below it. While it has updated its
426. 15:15recent low, the line below, around 0.40
427. 15:18, should act as quite a solid support
428. 15:20level. Yes. Therefore, in the short
429. 15:25term, there’s a high probability it
430. 15:27will bottom out between 0.43 and 0.41
431. 15:29and attempt a short-term rebound.
432. 15:33Moving on to Gold, it’s currently at
433. 15:364134, and it remains heavy on the
434. 15:38upside. With the daily moving averages
435. 15:40having formed a death cross, I think
436. 15:42it’s quite possible that we will test
437. 15:44the 4000 level below sometime this week
438. 15:46. If it reaches that point, it might be
439. 15:48a good time for a day trade long entry.
440. 15:50Of course, you’d cut your losses if
441. 15:52it drops below that, but given the
442. 15:54history of multiple bounces around 4000
443. 15:56, targeting a trade from there could be
444. 15:58a good strategy. Finally, let's look at
445. 16:00Dollar-Yen. It is currently at 158.19.
446. 16:03The price action here has really
447. 16:04stalled as well. It’s been moving
448. 16:06sideways lately, but there is one point
449. 16:08to note: the lows are consistently
450. 16:09rising. Also, the moving averages are
451. 16:11acting as support from below.
452. 16:13Furthermore, volume is increasing.
453. 16:15Given this, it often leads to an upward
454. 16:17move, so after consolidating here for a
455. 16:19while, I believe there is a high
456. 16:21probability it will test a break above
457. 16:23160. Well, if it fails to break through
458. 16:25after that, it could drop significantly
459. 16:27, or that could turn out to be a
460. 16:29fake-out leading to a decline, but I
461. 16:30personally expect it to continue moving
462. 16:32sideways before testing the 160 yen
463. 16:34level. So, today we’ve looked at the
464. 16:36status of seven currencies and the
465. 16:37dollar-yen. The cryptocurrency market
466. 16:39is truly continuing to move sideways,
467. 16:41making for a dull market, but compared
468. 16:43to the drop in US stocks—especially
469. 16:45semiconductors and tech-related shares
470. 16:47—Bitcoin feels a bit more mild, or
471. 16:49rather, you can sense that it's holding
472. 16:51up. If anything, I think it’s more
473. 16:55accurate to say that people are losing
474. 16:57interest rather than everyone buying at
475. 16:59the bottom, but with the month-end and
476. 17:01the midterm elections coming in
477. 17:02November, the market could be quite
478. 17:04volatile from next week on; it really
479. 17:05feels like the calm before the storm.
480. 17:10I’d like to make sure to help
481. 17:11everyone catch up on the latest updates
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