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Joe Lowry tells us what he REALLY THINKS about everything Lithium — Transcript

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0:00I am not going to speak for Albemarle I
0:03think if you take the top four lithium
0:05companies they're the worst operator
0:08hands down
0:09sorry guys
0:13what have they done well operationally
0:14they bought into green bushes they don't
0:18operate green bushes they do don't have
0:20a skill set
0:22to operate a mighty they haven't done
0:25mining since 1982. gangpen got to a
0:28certain size they realized okay we got
0:29to be basic we just can't buy it keep
0:31buying scrap and recycle streams from
0:34people we can't be who we want to be and
0:36do that so they bought into Mount Mary
0:40and what did they get rewarded with
0:43four percent what did that do to their
0:45throughput
0:47it's pretty much a linear relationship
0:49between four and six percent as to what
0:51you're able to produce did that hurt Min
0:55res
0:57no
0:58who did hurt gang fan
1:02hold on money modest having way go to
1:04bloody rip snorter talk about the global
1:06Legend of lithium and you don't get the
1:08nickname Mr fucking lithium well it's
1:11just Mr lithium but no reason this guy
1:13is a bloody legend and he was in town
1:16and we had the pleasure of interviewing
1:18Mr Joe Lowry how excited Jesus was the
1:20Ripper boys it was I thought we were
1:22only going to chat for 30 odd minutes I
1:25usually like oh we'll just do 10 minutes
1:26I'm like yeah right well it was almost
1:30impossible to actually have our
1:31schedules aligned in the first place so
1:33I thought we're only going to have like
1:3530 minutes to chat with Joe
1:37um yeah we'd leave our own office to
1:40bloody um align with his schedule which
1:42um thankfully thankfully happened but he
1:44gave us more time than we expected and
1:46it's wicked Insight this guy is like as
1:48proximate to the real dynamics of the
1:50lithium Market as it gets
1:53um I don't want to spoil too much in in
1:55the intro buddy because it was
1:57everything lithium companies Downstream
1:59fucking everything Global Aussie it was
2:02awesome yeah it was so bloody good um
2:05and we got drink beer while we did it so
2:07that was a bloody best bit or white lie
2:09Roger we just uh hold on again we give a
2:11good preload at the start you would have
2:13caught a bit in the intro he's uh nice
2:15and Punchy towards some companies it's
2:17pretty bloody I'm not glad he's saying
2:19it well similar to us he doesn't mind um
2:21you know being critical of company's
2:23strategies and I think people respect
2:24that to be honest so imagine what will
2:26be like when we're 60. well respected or
2:29have no friends or both right right
2:32let's rip it uh partners for today what
2:35very pertinent because Terra Capital I'm
2:38sure they love a bit of lithium and love
2:40Joe Lowry so mate great partners of the
2:43show one of the one of the great
2:45resource funds in Australia can I say
2:48that yeah they're pretty good but I
2:49think they're good blocks
2:51as soon as you ask for permission to say
2:54what you want about NAD that is that is
2:56right she is langism Bondi and everyone
2:57else there for uh sporting money in my
3:00mind right let's get into Mr lithium the
3:03legend himself Joe Larry here we go
3:10Elizabeth key and we have got you mean
3:15it's not K Elizabeth
3:18that's what happens when you get an
3:20American on your podcast well we don't
3:22need to touch this black guy out of
3:23speak into a microphone because he runs
3:25his own podcast the global lithium
3:27podcast not not jl1 the stock guy the
3:30this is Joe lithium Lowry he's the main
3:34man and he's come all the way from
3:35America
3:37I could say just to say yes but I would
3:40be like why wouldn't I do that exactly
3:42mate welcome to Monument
3:44thank you very much I am honored beyond
3:47measure
3:49we should be um we should be honored to
3:51have you on our podcast Joe we're
3:53absolutely appreciative of uh you know
3:55you fitting in in your tight schedule
3:57um you know squeeze squeezing you this
3:59uh podcast with us we've had to pair it
4:01with you visiting the shores guys who
4:02are here in the in the shores board room
4:04so inconvenient
4:07in their board room but brilliantly
4:10there is a friend of mine a bit of
4:12context to the to the money miners out
4:14there I you probably don't need an intro
4:16uh Joe Mr Mr lithium Lowry as as you are
4:19known
4:20um but you know you run a lithium Market
4:22consultancy Global lithium which
4:24provides you know some lithium Market
4:26insights and Analysis to some pretty
4:29diverse clients out there I mean think
4:30major lithium producers everything from
4:32long only investors hedge funds even
4:34governments um you're super well known
4:36in the lithium industry for for your
4:38podcast
4:42and I think expect the nickname Mr
4:45lithium comes from the fact that you
4:47know not not that many people would be
4:49more tenured than you when it comes to
4:50this um you know industry which is full
4:52of nuance given uh over three decades
4:54when you sort of started here I think
4:56what we're keen to convey to our
4:58listeners
5:00um is you know the the degree to which
5:02you have your finger on the pulse in
5:04this market which influences a lot of
5:06the companies that we care about
5:08um and those very like intricate
5:10dynamics of the lithium Market which are
5:11going to be a lot more familiar to you
5:13than they are asking me we're excited to
5:14learn from you so pretty much 25 of your
5:1730 years of being in lithium have been
5:19shit like like not as not as good as it
5:23is well thank you for sharing the
5:26lithium itself
5:28I wouldn't characterize it when was
5:30there other lithium booms in history in
5:33your tenure
5:34well I mean if you look at when I
5:37started the lithium-ion battery didn't
5:38exist
5:40and so I started in 1990 and it was a
5:43pretty sweet Market there were two of us
5:45what what's now Albemarle in what's now
5:48live in there was no sqm then
5:51we made a lot of money
5:53because it was two people with a global
5:57business the Chinese you couldn't buy
5:59the product because it was garbage back
6:01then
6:02and so if you look at a niche business
6:04Post-it notes have lithium in two places
6:07the yellow posted notes
6:09I created a special high price for 3M
6:11back in those days because I knew they
6:13didn't care
6:14because I mean they didn't they didn't
6:16need a lot but they were making billions
6:18of little Post-it notes
6:20you can't make an Statin
6:22anti-cholesterol without lithium
6:24chemistry
6:25we took down a lot of money from the
6:27Pharma companies so
6:30don't get too caught up in your own
6:33narrative they're about so you're saying
6:35Post-it notes are about to go through
6:37the roof no I'm saying you missed that
6:39you were like in second grade when the
6:42posters
6:45it might have been in your mom's eye
6:47yeah you never know
6:50let's be balanced about this hole
6:54so you made a post on Twitter not too
6:56long ago which sort of stood out to me
6:58you spoke about mainstream media having
7:00a lack of understanding when it comes to
7:03lithium and I think the words you used
7:05were seemingly knowing less about the
7:07lithium Market than the average retail
7:08investor you're talking about the city
7:10Morning Herald I wasn't going to name
7:13them but I am I'm Keen to hear from you
7:15what are the biggest misconceptions
7:17about the lithium Market that you see
7:19well that there is a lithium Price Right
7:22There are a range of lithium prices
7:26in 2023
7:28as of the end of July sorry about
7:31putting on the table when I
7:33spanked my former guests for doing the
7:36same thing
7:38the Lithia the price of lithium
7:40carbonate in Japan through July is 62
7:44bucks a kilo on average this year if you
7:47read what the lithium price is by
7:49everybody who just focuses on anally
7:51focuses on and my dad the China spot
7:53price there's this Narrative of price
7:56crash even if you take the price crash
7:58narrative
8:00the price is still almost 10x what it
8:04was in June of 2020 and I remember that
8:07really specifically because I had Ken
8:09brinsden on my podcast and was just
8:12hoping he wasn't going to slit his
8:14wrists at the time because I think they
8:17were getting 350 to 370 for spajamine
8:20their cost was a lot higher than that Al
8:22Tura had already gone out we all know
8:25you know Bald Hill had shut down like
8:27five months after they started up you
8:30know a couple years earlier it's great
8:31you couldn't The Narrative was awful too
8:33I remember that we started out well
8:36Jenny and I started our careers around
8:37that time and the pervasive narrative
8:38was
8:39um lithium it's bloody number you know
8:42three on the periodic table for using
8:44the shitloads of it everywhere and then
8:45like it just turned like immediately and
8:47then um it's been a pretty pretty you
8:49know insane 2021 for the commodity but I
8:51I remember that that dark period was the
8:53start of my um my career and it was just
8:55like you couldn't get a more hated
8:57moment for lithium or a more hated
8:59commodity at that point in time but that
9:00goes back to the whole false narrative
9:02about
9:04how lithium oh lithium price went up in
9:072016 and 17 so all these Aussie Minds
9:09went on in response there was no
9:12relationship between
9:14in January of 2016 green bushes was
9:18running Catelyn was shut in the rest of
9:21them Were Gleaming their father's eyes
9:23and so eloquently stated
9:27on this podcast well you clearly are and
9:30that's how it worked up words too I have
9:32a trouble with that that's fine I think
9:34that's a word eloquency
9:36it is now it's just like irregardless
9:39was not a word when I was a child
9:41but because it was used so much
9:43it actually is in the dictionary now so
9:46you may become like the Noah Webster
9:51anyway so Joe on on pricing specifically
9:55we saw the the first Futures Contract
9:57come out of China not too long ago in in
9:59July and it had a bit of a tough first
10:01day but I'm I'm in the future Market
10:03that nobody really participates in
10:05exactly I'm Keen to sort of expand on
10:07that and you give us a bit of a lesson
10:09on what what that sort of means to the
10:11broader lithium Market generally
10:14and you guys you know may may never want
10:17this one to air because
10:20um you know I just don't think
10:22lithium
10:24doesn't have the kind of uh financial
10:27instruments that other I won't say
10:29Commodities because lithium is not a
10:31commodity and we can go down that path
10:32later if you'd like to
10:34it's especially chemical it doesn't
10:36behave like people will say especially
10:40commodity Market guys it's just like
10:42uranium it's just like iron ore it's
10:44just like it's it's like neither one of
10:45those two and not like any of the other
10:47Commodities out there so
10:49for lithium to become what it needs to
10:52become for the energy transition we're
10:54going to need financial instruments
10:55we're going to need a reasonable way to
10:57hedge but we don't have that now
11:00in the Futures Market in China I mean
11:01China's
11:03catl who I used to advise
11:06and byd who I've done business with my
11:11first time was in 2000 when nobody had
11:13heard of byd
11:15I didn't know it was build your dreams
11:17until later I don't know if they created
11:18The Narrative later
11:21but I have a history with those guys and
11:24it's just fascinating to me now how
11:28what what byd has done
11:32but they're now trying to take control
11:35of the pricing narrative
11:38I have no confidence in anything I hear
11:40out of a Chinese analyst anymore because
11:42they're all afraid to go against the ATL
11:44and byd
11:45and there's punishment I've made it out
11:49to people who get outside the narrative
11:51so the real issue for me now is
11:55if you're going to have a Futures Market
11:58and you don't have the gang fans and the
12:00Tantus of the world participating in it
12:03what kind of
12:04Market is that
12:06and let's
12:09let's give that some time so I I ascribe
12:13no importance
12:14other than
12:16a narrative importance for China wants
12:19to talk price down they want price
12:21within a band like this
12:24and because it benefits by day it
12:26benefits byd and CHL together according
12:30to Sino Auto insights shout out to my
12:32friend Tula
12:34um they have 52 of the EV battery market
12:37so yeah they they have some sway
12:40and they you know they when the price
12:42started going down
12:43and they and then it went too far down
12:46and catl had made some deals where
12:50the spot price going down too much
12:53was bad for them
12:55because they had they had
12:57linked everything they had to what the
13:00spot price was
13:01and so
13:03it's an immature industry
13:05I've been around a long time
13:07but lithium still hasn't grown up yet
13:11and
13:13it's going to take some time so
13:15sorry for a long non-answer to your not
13:18you're a good question is there another
13:21commodity you can compare it to in the
13:23cycle of where lithium
13:26you will never yeah I mean it's like The
13:30Gleam in your dad's eye turning into
13:31rage
13:36of where it's at at the moment or maybe
13:38like uh in history
13:40okay so you guys are
13:43broad commodity experts let's just call
13:46you that I don't know yeah
13:49commodity students
13:55just release that as an individual
13:58snippet on our website commodity experts
14:01as described by Mr lithium himself
14:03you'll be at the bottom with a
14:05testimonial yeah
14:07I'm a paid I'm a compensated
14:10spokesperson money of mine and I'm gonna
14:13get out of here with a t-shirt
14:18no it's it's um I think lithium's five
14:21years away at least from having the kind
14:25of financial instruments that give
14:26people confidence if you go back to the
14:28last MINI BOOM which started at the end
14:31of 15 into 16.
14:35it's you know the price ran up from
14:38under five to Twenty Eight I was selling
14:41a large Chinese lithium company's
14:43material which
14:46it isn't too hard to guess who it was
14:48[Laughter]
14:52this guy I mean
14:55stand up
14:58no and I I just picked a price I picked
15:01the price out of thin air I said the
15:02price for this stuff is 28 625 bucks
15:06no logic
15:08no nothing but I did everybody paid for
15:11it I didn't know that this guy's done
15:13his maths well yeah that's what you see
15:15625 625 96 or something like a garage
15:19sale yeah
15:21it pretty much was and I wouldn't I
15:23wouldn't
15:24in India they were offering me 30 32 and
15:27I said I don't like you guys because
15:28you're you're hard to deal with so I'm
15:31not going to sell this stuff to you so
15:33it so we saw that that boom happen but
15:38then the narrative you know it It
15:40reversed
15:42but then you had the banks
15:45the Morgan Stanley's and the goldmans of
15:47the world and yes I will name names uh
15:49came out and said you know hype high
15:51prices fixed high prices and I said go
15:53back and look at when pilborough was
15:55planned go back and look at when
15:58Altura was playing they hadn't it wasn't
16:00a response to a sudden spike in price
16:04so that's just BS I mean look at look at
16:06how you're going to have five new Minds
16:08come on in Western Australia this year
16:09no you are not
16:12because it takes too damn long so you're
16:16going to see in the next few years
16:21the real spike in EV demands and the
16:24inability of the lithium Market to
16:26respond to it
16:28and I will say and I've said it a couple
16:31times on social media that I believe the
16:33average price of lithium chemicals sold
16:35in 2023 the average price is going to be
16:39higher than 2022.
16:41completely counter to the narrative that
16:43you read in the Press
16:45that
16:46especially if I read it this morning
16:48lithium price is down 58 It's like
16:51because one guy's index is down 58 yeah
16:57you mentioned the the financialization
17:00you expect to sort of take five years
17:02that five-year timeline I heard you
17:05mention that in a in a recent podcast
17:08interview you participated in in
17:10reference to dle I think your your words
17:13in July were that direct lithium
17:16extraction will unlock both quantity and
17:18quality because it will yield a higher
17:20quality product if properly implemented
17:22yet we're still five years away from
17:24seeing any significant impact my
17:27question to you Joe is if if dle
17:30actually does pose a real risk to
17:32disrupting the cost curve of the lithium
17:35Market in sort of five years time like
17:39how do you think about the kind of
17:40valuations we see today for single asset
17:44um companies in the undeveloped space
17:46which which might be more than five
17:48years away from being in production well
17:50let me clarify the remarks I previously
17:53made about dle because I believe dle
17:55will happen you're getting held account
17:57for everything you've said well I mean
17:59he's looking at his little
18:02on July you said oh my gosh
18:06no I there are a lot of people that
18:09think I'm ant ideally I mean people will
18:11take Snippets you say pull it out of
18:15context I don't believe you're doing
18:16that but
18:18deal the promise of dle isn't in South
18:22America
18:24because people will say well
18:26like the guy from
18:28one of the dle companies that's named
18:31after a flower
18:33um
18:34you can make it 10 000 times faster with
18:37our technology which is abject bullshit
18:41once you have a pond system in steady
18:43state the time to make the final product
18:46with dle and ponds is exactly the same
18:48and if you parallel building your ponds
18:51with building your plant
18:53daily gives you it's not a speed thing
18:56the real promise of dle is in places
18:58like North America
18:59where there's smack over brines and no
19:01ability to evaporate it so when you when
19:04you start seeing the big oil companies
19:07get into it
19:09and believe they can bring their
19:13core skills to bear
19:15on producing from places which can't be
19:18done with ponds and you are going to
19:21have higher quality if you do daily in
19:23South America yeah you'll get higher
19:25um recovery rates
19:26and you should get better quality
19:28but nobody's cracked the nut not just on
19:32producing actual dle material but then
19:35being able to reinject it into Solaris
19:37so until
19:40governments Argentinas and the Chiles of
19:43the world are saying okay yeah you can
19:44do daily and you can re-inject into the
19:46solar
19:47you got all you got other issues
19:49involved with implementing dle
19:52on transpoint to the the cost curve in
19:55the industry we had a chat about BHB
19:57avoiding the lithium Market because they
19:59said the the cost curve was not steep
20:01enough I'm Keen to get your thoughts on
20:03on this reasoning for not entering the
20:05market and steering clear I will not
20:07speak to
20:09bhp's logic but the cost curve is
20:12getting steeper lepidolite has made the
20:14Costco very steep
20:16especially lower lower grade lipidolite
20:19if you're if you're talking about a 0.29
20:21with a 20 to 1 strip ratio in other Nas
20:24environmental nasties in the toxic mix
20:28that comes out from processing it versus
20:31uh reasonable Garden variety brine play
20:35you get
20:37under 3 000 X royalty
20:40verses 30 30 a kilo
20:44so you got you know three bucks versus
20:47Thirty you got a 10x Delta on your cost
20:49curve historically in the lithium
20:51industry
20:53you had fifteen hundred dollars a ton
20:56and I'll go back and forth between kilos
20:58and tons so you'll just have to bear
21:00with me because yeah I'm an American I'm
21:03a pounds guy I mean I get a lot of kudos
21:07for being in America in Italy at least
21:09goes metric but I I always mix tons
21:12so that lack of statements in the cost
21:15curve you think is more a reflection of
21:17the immaturity of the market no no I
21:19believe the cost I mean if if we're
21:21going to talk about right run over rise
21:24and you you had a former cost curve that
21:27nobody was more than two or three
21:29thousand dollars a ton apart and you're
21:31going to a world where
21:33the lower quality like guys are at 30
21:36000 a ton ish versus what sqm would be 3
21:41000 a ton ish before their use serious
21:45royalty in Chile yeah uh a 10x
21:49that's that's pretty steep I mean I mean
21:52talk about other Commodities in
21:55because you're commodity experts well if
21:58they tell me how steep those costers are
22:00yeah well I think BHP analogy is you
22:03know a good one because
22:04um the the step cost curve you have in
22:06an iron ore or is sort of underpinned by
22:08the the low grade
22:10um iron or mining that you get out of
22:11China as well which which might in some
22:12ways be analogous to the to the Dynamics
22:14of the lipid alike Costco the only
22:17reason I have problems with making the
22:20iron ore to the lithium comparisons yeah
22:22and and I know jack shit about iron ore
22:25let's just stipulate that at the
22:27beginning
22:31so you chose the right
22:34material or element I didn't say
22:37commodity did
22:38he's
22:40teachable
22:42when you talk about uranium or you talk
22:46about iron ore has there ever been a
22:47decade where demand for either one of
22:49those grew more than 10x
22:53no no no that's the difference between
22:56what you're seeing in the lithium world
22:58and what you've seen in
23:00I won't say other Commodities because
23:02that would be me then saying lithium was
23:04a commodity
23:06no let's let's just look at
23:10the lithium Market got tilded in 2020
23:13when EV penetration went to three
23:15percent
23:18and now you're seeing the growth this
23:20year will be what Global demand was in
23:232018. the growth this year
23:26I don't think you can tell me that story
23:28about some anything else that you are
23:32experts on which is a lot of things
23:33because you guys all look like experts
23:35there's another snip buddy
23:38that's why you're in the middle because
23:39you've got the glasses on and you look
23:41like a Superette
23:43we get termed the the what is it the
23:46third grade the Yuppie the Yobo and the
23:49nerd but I'll just I don't know which
23:50one's the yappy and which one's the next
23:52I thought I thought it was the yappy the
23:53third grade cricketer and the nerd oh
23:55that was one another guy the other night
23:56the Yuppie the Yobo and the nerd so I'm
23:58definitely the job but they're both
24:00nerds because they're both smart so and
24:02that you're smart too you're you're
24:04Golden Triangle so you must
24:06so let me let me
24:08give me a bit of rope here Joe so go
24:12ahead and hang yourself
24:13and I hope we don't get to that stage
24:15but look you say we're I guess five
24:18years off some stability let's call it
24:21stability as you said you just it was
24:23you used to just make up prices and sell
24:25it to people yeah for lithium that's how
24:27it is five years to some stability
24:30um I guess you're predicting the did I
24:33interpret what you say right the supply
24:35isn't going to meet the demand for the
24:37EV uptake
24:39I don't believe that uh Supply is going
24:42to catch up with demand in this decade
24:44so I still think price certainty is
24:46about five years away and but what I
24:49don't think I don't think you're ever I
24:50think you what what's going to happen is
24:52people are going to become comfortable
24:53with the fact the price is not going
24:56back
24:57to 400 bucks a ton for spot you mean and
24:59what you have now is you have
25:01um
25:02different people I think
25:04maybe well I won't mention Aussie Bank
25:08names but there are certain Aussie Banks
25:10that'll say this it's going to be 1500
25:12some people say it's going to be 2250
25:16based on what
25:17I have a slide I show and
25:21it's the spot you mean price curve out
25:24to 2030 of several Banks
25:28four of the five banks predict a
25:31continuing shortage but they all have
25:33the Spider-Man price going down below
25:36well below 2000. in what Universe does
25:39that make sense if you have a growing
25:41shortage
25:43because people don't like the idea it's
25:45like lithium price should be six
25:46thousand because it was for a long time
25:48and that's just not the way it isn't in
25:502016 everybody said oh thirty thousand
25:53dollar lithium will kill the battery
25:54industry nobody will be making EVS game
25:58over no energy transition
26:01what happened price went to 80 000 and
26:04and there were more gigawatt hours
26:06produced
26:07at that price
26:09so
26:11most people didn't understand
26:14what the lithium impact was on an EV
26:18IL the lithium price impact
26:20they never did the calculation they just
26:22said oh it can't go up that much it's
26:24got to kill the market and started
26:26writing about it and then Reuters or
26:29Bloomberg or whoever one of their guys
26:31who didn't want to do the homework just
26:33would repeat it and then you you created
26:36a narrative that's self-fulfilling
26:38prophecy we had Goldman's at one point
26:41Goldman's and Morgans were predicting
26:43prices that were about
26:4510 like I think the Morgans the
26:48Goldman's price was 10 of what Morgan's
26:50was predicting like just either ends of
26:52the spectrum Morgan Stanley
26:55and they're in my my faves because
26:58it's they there are lithium guys
27:01apparently don't talk to their EV guys
27:04which I guess is not a bus stop in
27:07banking circles but you have them they
27:10have they had numbers out to 2030.
27:12they say spot Jimmy is going to go down
27:14to 1100 a ton
27:16okay let's just stipulate that that
27:18happens but they have lithium carbonate
27:19at like 8 000. we'll do the math on that
27:23so that basically means everybody buying
27:26spot you mean at 1100 a ton is going to
27:30take a four thousand to five thousand
27:31ton beating on every tunnel lithium
27:34chemicals they make
27:36because it's a it's it's not an exact
27:38science but it's it's about eight
27:40roughly an eight to one ratio
27:42and then add 4 500 to 5 for conversion
27:45if you're making battery quality with in
27:48an inflationary environment
27:49so how do you publish something like
27:51that
27:54I ask you Morgan Stanley so our album
27:58Alpine 1900 bucks a ton for sa6 for lion
28:02town
28:03over or under what do you reckon when
28:06you first saw that do you think Pine too
28:08much pain too little looks alright
28:11I am not going to speak for Albemarle
28:14uh because
28:16I mean your work form no I don't they're
28:19my my taxes
28:22building but that's the CL that's as
28:25close as my their album world's based 25
28:27minutes from where I live so I and I'm
28:30familiar with them I competed with them
28:31for a long time but I think if you take
28:34the top four lithium companies they're
28:35the worst operator
28:38hands down
28:39sorry guys what's up
28:43what have they done well operationally
28:45they bought into green bushes they don't
28:48operate green bushes they do don't have
28:51a skill set
28:52to operate a mining they haven't done
28:55mining since 1982. hmm
28:58I don't
28:59Brian is not mining Brian's more in
29:03analogous to uh oil and gas than it is
29:06to mining I don't call Brine operational
29:08lithium mine
29:10they closed in her mind in Kings
29:12Mountain North Carolina
29:13in 1982.
29:16they bought into
29:18green bushes they don't outbreak green
29:20bushes they don't operate wojana
29:23so cyborg what's their mining I mean
29:27what's their
29:28skill set in mining
29:30so do you think uh buying a hundred
29:33percent of a complex High tonnage
29:35underground mine is
29:37in terms of who you let run it yeah
29:48they've got other options right they
29:50could join Venture once they have 100
29:52ownership
29:54um they're possible oh yeah or like oh
29:57they could just yeah the crystals
30:04now it's a lithium ball to protect the
30:06future yeah yeah no and I I don't have I
30:09own Albemarle stock and I said I would
30:11never buy it but certain events like
30:14covid or when
30:17borage decided he was gonna
30:20talk about nationalization and the stock
30:22price cratered I said that's just too
30:24I'm buying
30:25and Albemarle has two of the best assets
30:28in the world
30:30but they're not great operators
30:32they had to buy a Chinese company to
30:35even get in the hydroxide game to supply
30:37Tesla because they couldn't make great
30:40product in Kings Mountain North Carolina
30:42after getting the Obama shovel ready
30:44money
30:46I competed with them I you know I I know
30:49of what I speak in that regard trust me
30:52or not it's like where I was gone with
30:54it when in five years time when this
30:57price does when you say it gets to that
30:59point What's it gonna look like is it a
31:00spot price like a like is it light gold
31:04is it like copper or is it what's it
31:06what's that market look like you know I
31:08I leave it to financial experts like
31:10your good selves to tell me what those
31:12outcomes are going to be what does it
31:14look like all I'm saying is that lithium
31:17as it becomes bigger more significant
31:20will mature financial instruments will
31:22be developed and you'll you'll see a
31:28um
31:30a world where a hedge fund who have sat
31:33on the sidelines because they just
31:34couldn't understand you know what the
31:36hell is going on with this lithium thing
31:39and it let's just face facts and in 2020
31:44the global man was 300 000 tons it's
31:47it's nothing
31:48it will have taken 70 years
31:52for lithium demand there's been a
31:54lithium Market about 70 years
31:57to reach a million tons the second
32:00million tons will come in three and a
32:01half years
32:03so that's
32:05kind of a
32:07situation where then you'll see
32:10okay this is a real thing I mean Exxon
32:13or Chevron or those guys weren't you if
32:15you ask them about lithium three years
32:17ago they're like
32:18what why would we do that what didn't
32:21Rick rule say they couldn't spell
32:22lithium a few years ago I think they
32:25spelled it w-a-s-t-e yeah
32:28Joe I want to ask you about going
32:30Downstream so pretty much all the
32:32operations in wa go Downstream and they
32:34look at hydroxide capacity
32:37I want to hear from you what are the the
32:39future implications of such a focus on
32:42hydroxide Downstream capacity as opposed
32:44to carbonate all right let's
32:46I'm glad you asked that question because
32:48you are clearly in the center with the
32:50glasses on smartest guy in the room and
32:52a yappy you're gonna make me blush he
32:55literally called his line Rich As Fuck
32:57all right so there was a false narrative
33:00created here notice I didn't pound on
33:02the table I just delicately
33:06there was a false narrative created here
33:08it said oh Hard Rock lithium is the
33:12cheapest route to lithium hydroxide
33:14that's true in only one case
33:16delicious
33:19hydroxides harder to make
33:22it has a shelf life
33:24and we have seen
33:28the high nickel narrative
33:31Fall Apart
33:33in the last
33:34since Elon decided to use lfp in the
33:37model 3. now everybody else is kind of
33:41jumping on board you can't
33:43have a world where you have 50 EV
33:45penetration you have to have a price
33:48point where the average guy can afford
33:51an EV
33:52and arguably Tesla it was you had to you
33:56were paying six figures for a Model S
33:58back in the day there's a limited number
34:01of people on the planet that can do that
34:03if you want to have
34:06ubiquitous EV
34:08IL adoption
34:10you have to have a car people can afford
34:12I think it runs at byd and cattle would
34:15take a bit of responsibility for that as
34:16well
34:18oh absolutely I mean Elon didn't didn't
34:20do it because you know I'm Elon I'm the
34:22smartest guy on the planet and I bought
34:24Twitter and I can do whatever I want to
34:25I mean it what happened was you had the
34:27blade
34:29yeah and you know so you had sell the
34:31pack and you had the blade happen but
34:33Elon was smart enough to say you know
34:35what
34:36I can I can use this and then I don't
34:39have to worry about Cobalt from the DRC
34:42I don't have to I my nickel problems and
34:44my Cobalt problems go away
34:47because I think
34:48three smart guys can agree that you can
34:51make a lithium battery
34:53without Cobalt
34:55without nickel but you can't make it
34:57without lithium
34:58yeah on that point of um you know the I
35:01know I know that's probably hard for you
35:03to internalize that's all this would be
35:05to be a podcast I'll just listen to it
35:06afterwards
35:08on that point if um yeah the importance
35:11of literally needing lithium I'm kind of
35:14Canton
35:16um talk a little bit about you know
35:18mineral resources a big big stock on in
35:21our world
35:22um I'm a holder Yeah Yeah well yeah
35:27yeah
35:30so so I mean the words I think of Chris
35:34Allison he's um the guy with the Rock
35:36wins guy with the Rock wins 100 it's in
35:40and you you but the guy with the brines
35:42better right I'm very curious where am I
35:46am I in Western Australia is that his
35:48work was that Chris's words as well no
35:50no no that was my addendum he's a rock
35:52guy because Chris and I are so close I
35:55mean it's like oh wait and we love we
35:58bloody love the blogs
36:00if you look at what I've said about
36:02Chris Ellison over the last three years
36:03it's been super positive oh and starting
36:06Zion cash we have that much respect
36:10New Zealand the poor boy from New
36:13Zealand sorry yeah okay I get it so so
36:16like we like how should we how should a
36:18new person
36:20getting across the space think of where
36:21value is actually going to accrue along
36:24the entire kind of pipeline do we should
36:26we just believe the the you know
36:28wherever whoever can produce lithium is
36:31where the value will capture and the
36:32downstream is is you know we'll just
36:33kind of mean revert to a to a low margin
36:36kind of business over time because it's
36:37higher competition
36:39when lithium's
36:42in over Supply but that day won't happen
36:45until you actually have a circular
36:47economy and that's going to be a long
36:50time because
36:51recently what people don't understand
36:53about recycling is a new gigafactory has
36:5830 to 40 percent waste for months that's
37:01lithium that's delayed to Market and
37:04that shit show hasn't really started yet
37:07when you get all these gigafactories
37:09that the IRA wants to fund and the
37:12Europeans want to build
37:14you're going to have so much lithium
37:16that and when people do their balances
37:18they say Okay Supply demand they don't
37:21factor in the fact that new
37:22gigafactories even when the existing
37:25operators build them they still have
37:26pretty high rejects but when somebody
37:28who's never done it before does it
37:30it's it's going to be in that range and
37:32yeah it doesn't last forever but that's
37:35when people say oh the lithium Market's
37:37in Balance the lithium lithium Market's
37:39short when it gets over 90 capacity
37:42utilization because there's long Supply
37:43chains in a growth business you got to
37:46build your inventory to have your
37:49paranoia inventory and
37:52China doesn't
37:54approach it like the rest of the world
37:55does
37:57what you saw this year when when China
38:00sees price go down they quit buying
38:04because they think next week it's going
38:06to be cheaper so why should I pay a dime
38:08more and and that that's been that way
38:11for 20 years
38:14the Koreans and the Japanese are going
38:15to keep a level of inventory
38:17it might not be as high as it was back
38:19when the Japanese used to keep eight to
38:22nine months of lithium inventory because
38:24they were always afraid of
38:26those two suppliers in America aren't
38:27really very good at what they do and
38:30what happens if there's a earthquake in
38:33the Atacama Joe you you touched on the
38:35inflation reduction act the IRA there um
38:38just to start off Keen to hear whether
38:40you think the implications are overrated
38:41or underrated in the lithium overrated
38:43grossly grossly okay I can use that can
38:46you expand on that okay let's look at
38:49what's happened thus far
38:51the first of all everybody says well
38:53it's a game changer because all this
38:55investment's been made well investment's
38:57been
38:59companies have said we're gonna we're
39:01going to do this and I believe it's
39:03going to result in increased investment
39:05but most of the Investments going on the
39:08battery in
39:10the gigafactory end
39:13I have a map in my presentation I I
39:16roughly 25 gigafactories and now it's in
39:19the U.S mostly by Asian companies with
39:23Partners whether it's Ford or GM or
39:26whomever
39:28there hasn't been a dime not one dime
39:33committed to resource
39:37now I believe lithium Americans will get
39:39their loan for Thacker pass I believe
39:41that'll happen and you've had Albemarle
39:43get a commitment on building conversion
39:46but you got to have the rock is Mr
39:49Ellison likes to say to convert
39:52and so if you're putting billions into
39:55the downstream and you're not putting
39:57anything in the Upstream because in the
39:58U.S politically people don't like mining
40:01they you know Biden came out and said I
40:05want 50 of the cars to be EVS in 2030
40:09and the next day the squad the left side
40:11the left of the left of his party came
40:13out we don't want mining here we it's
40:16like we'd rather buy oil from Venezuela
40:18the dirtiest oil producers in the world
40:20and we'd rather
40:22get anything mine from our friends so we
40:26don't have to have it in our backyard
40:27makes no sense
40:30it's you're not going to be able to
40:33supply the gigafactories because when
40:35they came out and said well we're just
40:36going to get it from our partners I said
40:38well why don't you talk to your Aussie
40:39friends because Reuters talk called me
40:41the next day after that statement was
40:43made and I said well
40:45go look at Australia you got names like
40:48tanchi
40:52you know album was there too
40:55but where's Albemarle sending their
40:57stuff oh China
41:00so it's yeah it's it's complicated so I
41:03I think
41:05the knee-jerk reaction was to say okay
41:07we've we've cracked the code here we're
41:09gonna you know this is this is ironic
41:11that Biden is making America great again
41:15um
41:16and you know we'll see and I I think the
41:18other thing you had to look at the 2024
41:20election because I think if you get a
41:22republican back in the White House
41:24I think the IRA could get gutted
41:27because it's is Trump is Trump down for
41:32I you know that you're
41:35well I think he's the host but
41:38I'm a guest here and you're gonna you're
41:41gonna make me talk about Trump okay wait
41:44wait wait wait
41:45no apologize rule on this podcast
41:48although I do I do I think that's
41:50abusive I see that I see mineral
41:53resources withdrawal from China in some
41:56ways an extension of the implications of
41:58the IRA and I know that's a downstream
42:01yeah no I I get it I I think I think a
42:03lot of people believe now that oh like
42:06America's gonna get back in the game
42:07Sorry I need to get closer to the mic
42:10you've actually got a nice prominent the
42:13voice
42:14of the great rugby league commentator
42:16Ray
42:17you might know him but I don't same sort
42:20of prominent but I did see South Africa
42:22versus Argentina three weeks ago in
42:24Buenos Aires
42:26and I have a lot of all black friends
42:28because when I was and that's not a
42:30racial commentary here
42:32New Zealand All Blacks when I lived in
42:34Japan the All Blacks that retire and
42:37moved to Japan to make real money
42:38playing Club rugby uh
42:42lived in the same lived in the same
42:45building there were some Aussies there
42:46too but it was primarily the mining
42:48politics or Sports podcast I'm lost now
42:53you know what if if you don't Reign me
42:55in I'm liable to start talking about
42:57anything
42:59okay so where were we so the IRA the IRA
43:02I see I hang on every word you say buddy
43:05we're still on it so
43:07going going
43:08let's take five years again into the
43:11future with this focus on Downstream for
43:15the funding from the IRA what does the
43:18the downstream uh globally look like is
43:21it still so Chinese dominated or does it
43:24start to sort of crack and become a bit
43:26more you know the the Western countries
43:29good question what I believe America
43:32should have done with the IRA is is
43:34really if you want to say we're going to
43:36try to phase China out you do it real
43:38slowly
43:39because the idea that you can just
43:43create china-free Supply chains not just
43:46lithium I mean look at everything
43:50why do you want to go down that road
43:53when it just ensures failure if you want
43:5650 EV penetration in the United States
44:00and you you're really wanting ubiquitous
44:03EVS
44:05you can't say oh and you have to have a
44:08free trade agreement well Argentina
44:09doesn't have a free trade agreement so
44:11you're going to say a company like Livin
44:13whose raw material comes from Argentina
44:17and gets shipped to North Carolina and
44:19China
44:20to make hydroxide you're going to say
44:22none of that's Ira compliant
44:24that makes no effing sense you can say
44:29it here
44:30wait you know I wouldn't I wouldn't
44:32because Robbie's over there and to to
44:35pick up on that live and thread I
44:37understand you spent 23 years working at
44:39FMC I did and I met a guy from live and
44:41last night having a steak not too far
44:43from here beautiful
44:45um with the all cam guys oh excellent
44:47and I mean that
44:49um that that merger for now kind of you
44:53know we don't have proximity to the
44:54lithium market dynamics and everything
44:56but the lot come on don't be don't be
44:59falsely humble on your own too much too
45:01busy building commodity experts
45:04the live in orchem merger I mean
45:07Australia has a as a Free Trade
45:08Agreement um which which might be handy
45:10but but the the other yeah the other
45:12part of the rationale which I thought is
45:15just like you know are we seeing
45:16consolidation because
45:18um like there's few lithium players out
45:21there and in order to retain the sort of
45:23market dynamics that you get with fewer
45:25peers consolidation actually provides
45:27those High margins for longer in that
45:29space is do you think that's the theme
45:30that will underpin these sorts of
45:32transactions or what's really driving
45:34the consultation well when I talk about
45:35my alma mater
45:37when I walked out the door
45:40in 2012. last year they put out produced
45:44the same amount of raw material
45:46as they did when I walked out the door
45:51okay so they're not like
45:55a big player now live in is
46:00a bit player in the lithium world
46:02at best sorry Paul
46:05and uh look at 23 000 and that's
46:10probably rounding up metric tons of raw
46:13material production yeah they've built
46:14hydroxide capacity but they've built
46:16hydroxide capacity back then when I
46:18called it the house of card strategy and
46:20yes that was due to the Netflix series
46:25people say what do you mean house of
46:26cards I said well if you build forty
46:29thousand tons or fifty thousand tons of
46:30hydroxide capacity you have to make it
46:32from carbonate and you only make twenty
46:34three thousand tons of
46:36lce and you have to use part of it for
46:39your Downstream you have to use some of
46:40it as chloride for your Downstream metal
46:42business
46:44how do you make that work and they
46:46believed that carbonate will just be
46:49cheap
46:50well that was a bad call
46:53and so now you've got
46:56all chem which
47:00I advise Toyota sushio back when that
47:03whole investment was made in oricober a
47:05so I I have some knowledge of the
47:07players and
47:09let's
47:10they've never made a majority of their
47:13product as battery quality
47:15since they started
47:18so you got
47:19I used to call it the the new world Big
47:22Four
47:23Albemarle sqm Tangi gangfin
47:26and the little two
47:28yeah it's a little too the little two
47:31well live event and all come together
47:33yeah we're only about 35 000 tons
47:37look at what gangfin did in from 2012
47:40until now how much is Gang Fang grown
47:445x it's Behemoth and livens the same
47:50so you're going to say okay These Guys
47:52these guys are game changers
47:54like they've spent a decade sleeping but
47:56all of a sudden there's going to be
47:59all this massive Synergy by taking the
48:03two weakest producers of the top six
48:05lithium players and combining them I
48:07don't I don't buy it and if you then say
48:10well wait a second they got they got
48:13hurt Rock assets too
48:15they got the worst Hard Rock acid and
48:16well the second worst Hard Rock asset in
48:19wa
48:21and everybody that did Hard Rock at live
48:24at is dead yeah
48:27because those guys when I walked in the
48:29door and I was the first guy to sell
48:32lithium commercially to the battery
48:34space
48:36and this is back in the 90s
48:39and
48:40those guys were my age when I was the
48:43young guy
48:45and they're all dead now which doesn't
48:47speak well for what my future is but hey
48:50well I mean you left you left uh FM back
48:53then but you left them and then they
48:54stopped growing so maybe there's a cause
48:56and effect relationship there well I got
48:58fired
49:00by the guy who runs Apple models lithium
49:03business
49:05and I've what I've I've chronicled that
49:07well and it we're coming up on my
49:09anniversary I got fired on September 12
49:102012 and every September 12th I repost
49:14my
49:16um blog post about you know
49:19Eric
49:21pushing the organizational chart over to
49:23me and say notice anything
49:26so if Matt catlin's the second worst
49:29okay I think we've spoken about it you
49:32did a podcast like very recently like I
49:35think in the last 24 hours about the
49:37worst yeah yeah there we go you you
49:41mentioned our mom we've spoken on them
49:43before obviously in regards to the
49:46limetown deal
49:47um also Keen to hear your thoughts on
49:49their M A approach more more broadly I
49:52mean online town they I think had six
49:54bids that they they did they were very
49:56keen to get that one they've put money
49:58in pmet they've what do you think of the
50:01with the approach their rumors that they
50:03send 34 people to fast markets I think
50:05it was 38 38 yeah that was the number
50:07yeah they're aggressive right and is
50:09that they're not aggressive they're
50:10bureaucratic right I mean they and and
50:13they have like silos so this department
50:16sent six and this department set seven
50:19and I don't think there was like a
50:21massive strategy of like oh we can only
50:23send yeah we can our expense budget
50:27can't tolerate too many of these lithium
50:30uh conferences no I mean
50:32I'm
50:34I I talk smack about Albemarle fairly
50:37often but it's only because they they
50:41have so much profit or
50:43they have so much promise and
50:46I think there are more bureaucratic than
50:49a BHP or a Rio tenno but they're a small
50:52much much much smaller company Jesus
50:55crossed that's might be working there
50:57well it used to be there in in this is
51:00uh
51:01back in the day
51:02when people would quit Albemarle they
51:04would they would message me on LinkedIn
51:06and say hey can I want to have coffee it
51:09stop s in Fort Mill you know or whatever
51:11and
51:13I always wanted to hear the stories you
51:15know why people leave because they have
51:18a huge churn on people
51:20and uh
51:22yes we are speaking frankly about the
51:24lithium industry today
51:26um is a pure coincidence that everything
51:29was caught for a bit and then within a
51:33couple of days album I'll put the bid in
51:35for line town and Min res put in the
51:38implementation date for Bald Hill all
51:40within two days I I just think if you
51:43look at
51:45Lord you know
51:48and you look at Mount Marion
51:54mediocre operationally at best
51:57so they're going to bring those great
51:59skills to bear on the
52:02worst
52:04operating asset in wa
52:08go for it and yeah in this current
52:10environment any crappy Project's gonna
52:13make money
52:14but I can remember I sat in primero's
52:17office in January of 2018.
52:21and you know the primero guys I'm sure
52:23and uh
52:25shout out to Brett
52:27he said
52:29that's going to be the first one on and
52:31every time they hit a milestone he would
52:33send me a message and they they started
52:36operating
52:37quickly
52:38and they shut down quickly too because
52:40it was and that's no that's no follow
52:42primero it's no I'm not cast in shade on
52:45premaro in any way
52:47but it's just not a good asset and it's
52:49it's small too I mean I think what you
52:51you guys were talking about the numbers
52:53you know I was I was actually
52:56getting ready to come over here when I
52:58was listening he said 140 000 times you
53:01know I mean that that's that was the
53:03city city yeah it's not yeah I mean
53:06that's not like a it's not a bloody time
53:08run isn't it no was it was it a mistake
53:10in your opinion to go after that asset I
53:12I wouldn't say it's a mistake because
53:13you could make money at it I mean I I
53:15because I believe there's a shortage
53:16yeah any any asset that's operating is
53:19going to make you money yeah that's just
53:21fine but I don't believe that minres is
53:23going to make that a better operation
53:24yeah but at this commodity price it it
53:27works will you guys quit saying
53:28commodity is it how much would you
53:31reckon was it just for the mill rather
53:33than because it's unencumbered by a
53:35joint venture you mean Maddie yeah well
53:37I I still don't I still don't understand
53:39the asteroid or whatever I mean there's
53:43there's it's just uh I I don't get all
53:47the drama and I don't I don't spend that
53:49much time I mean I I literally don't
53:52care about that asset and I think okay
53:54it's fine you know in minerals takes it
53:56into the team minres they'll make money
53:59on it
54:00good for them I'm a shareholder good for
54:03me but it's not a I mean it's it's like
54:07you know
54:08yet it's itchy scratched it but it
54:11didn't change your life I got a you know
54:14a curious question for you I mean we've
54:16we've talked about maybe some of the
54:18large lithium players and and questioned
54:21some of the strategies that we've seen
54:23who has a lithium strategy that you
54:25really respect at the moment Joe
54:28that's a good good good question because
54:32it's um you're seeing
54:36you have very few
54:39significant players honestly I mean it
54:43I don't have the numbers for last year
54:45because I just haven't gone through it
54:46but it
54:48the big four had like 72 percent of
54:51supply
54:53I think
54:54gang Finn's gonna have more and more
54:57problems as time goes on because
54:59operating in Argentina or Mali or
55:02wherever isn't like operating in China
55:05so they're
55:07trying to Grapple with this we have to
55:10go outside and we have to be
55:13um I mean what what Xiao Shen likes to
55:15say is
55:16globalization through localization and
55:18that's that's a good it's a good English
55:20expression and
55:22but it's
55:24it's tough for the Chinese companies to
55:27operate in the Chinese way in a place
55:28like Argentina
55:30and I think
55:31it's it's
55:33easier in Africa because it's and I
55:35might be all right in Mali yeah yeah
55:37well
55:38and
55:40but I just think it's
55:44when you look at that strategy
55:48in lithium China has a tough road to
55:50hell because they don't have good
55:53domestic assets
55:54and they're having to go outside and
55:56then they want to go outside in in a
55:58country like yeah I'd say it's getting
56:00late you're you need another beer
56:02[Music]
56:04but you look at how they're trying to
56:08operate and it's it's not easy in a
56:11country like Argentina that wants local
56:14employment and then they come in and say
56:16we want to bring a thousand Chinese guys
56:18in order to do this thing and they they
56:21go bat shit and say no you're not
56:22bringing a thousand Chinese guys in here
56:24to build the ponds or do anything else
56:26so you have those kind of conflicts
56:29where I think China has the biggest
56:30opportunity is Chile
56:34because there's no Western company if
56:37borage's policy stays in effect
56:40and it says all the new assets
56:43have to have a 51 government in
56:47strategic and nobody defines strategic I
56:50get all that but you no Western company
56:52is going to give the Chilean government
56:54a 51 carried interest
56:57Chinese will because Chinese needs the
57:00material the Chinese need the material
57:02so and I'm I think China's done all the
57:07right things for China
57:09and I think Americans whine about oh you
57:12know the Chinese are doing this and that
57:13we had no vision we let our
57:16our
57:18Heartland get hollowed out
57:21I mean I watched it happen
57:24and people that criticize China for just
57:27doing what they got to do to
57:30dominate an industry they want to
57:31dominate
57:33I I have
57:35nothing negative to say about what
57:38they've done but I will say that they
57:40have a real challenge when they go into
57:42other parts of the world
57:43that don't want to be colonized by
57:47America or China
57:48and I think it just makes things very
57:51difficult and that may not have answered
57:53the question you asked but I thought it
57:55sounded good oh my Target and sand and
57:57bloody Brewing yeah I've never felt so
58:01fucking dumb in an interview
58:03let's tell you what oh right it's it's
58:07all about marketing none about mining
58:09you want to talk about underground
58:14my last question for you Charlie's just
58:16um I want another question from the
58:18smarter guy here
58:21I agree Travis without doubt the smarter
58:24one and he's got one good rounding off
58:25one are you are you enough anybody here
58:28related to the F1 driver
58:41quarterback and I'm a big Buffalo Bills
58:43fan so I mean this is like a meaningful
58:45moment to me I'll get a picture with you
58:46and send it to my wife because she's a
58:48big Josh house you should check if he's
58:50in his will yeah I've never met him are
58:52you going to let us continue to digress
58:54are you going to rain this shit in I
58:55mean let's let's
58:57Sports
58:59your most contrarian viewer in the
59:01lithium Market Joe
59:04I think they are
59:06I mean honestly
59:08no I mean I mean the narrative is it's
59:11first of all that
59:15the price never should have gotten to 80
59:18000 that was a mistake of the Chinese
59:20Panic buying so at the time look at what
59:24the spot you mean price was at the time
59:27lithium
59:28spot went to 80 000.
59:31the cost curve was in the 40s so they
59:34bid this up double what the cost curve
59:37would have dictated
59:39with stupidity on their part
59:42so they you know they created the
59:45monster that they spent the last 18
59:47months trying to fix
59:50and
59:52all this boohoo lithium prices crashed
59:56this is the best I mean thirty thousand
59:59dollar lithium is a great price
1:00:01in any decent project can make outsized
1:00:06returns
1:00:07thirty thousand
1:00:09so why the hell is the market wringing
1:00:12their hands or and there wasn't there
1:00:14wasn't much volume transacted at 80 000
1:00:17let's just also stipulate that last year
1:00:21there was more volume under 12.
1:00:24than at 80.
1:00:25because Albemarle signed a lot of bad
1:00:27contracts
1:00:29in 2020 with caps on escalation sorry to
1:00:33reveal that to the World album world
1:00:36um and then they spent
1:00:39the better part of last year trying to
1:00:41negotiate themselves out of it and in
1:00:44some cases they made deals and said well
1:00:46you give us you give us some price this
1:00:48year we'll give you some back next year
1:00:49because we got to make this thing look
1:00:50better because we look like idiots
1:00:53and uh yeah we do real conversations
1:00:56here how are you trying to plug your own
1:00:58consulting services to try and get
1:01:00Albemarle to reach out to you to engage
1:01:02you for your expertise I was engaged
1:01:04with Albemarle every time when my
1:01:06ex-boss was running their lithium
1:01:07business before the guy who fired me
1:01:09came in and became head of the head of
1:01:12the deal now I I literally don't give a
1:01:15shit there you go you can all rip some
1:01:17quick thought I'm just gonna mic shit up
1:01:19okay lay out lithium down to 45
1:01:22ownership potentially 35 yeah I listen
1:01:25to that podcast what's what do you think
1:01:27is going to happen to Leia lithium just
1:01:29lay eye lithium now the game fitting God
1:01:31majority
1:01:33if you look at the way
1:01:35gang I raised the money for kachari
1:01:39from gangfin to lithium Americas that
1:01:43was my deal I introduced them
1:01:45I have a great relationship with the
1:01:47gang fan guys historically
1:01:50and they have always done
1:01:53aside from a lot of people like the shit
1:01:55talk you know how the Chinese behave
1:01:57gangfin's always been very reasonable
1:01:58with their partners
1:02:01and I
1:02:03I don't expect them to try to
1:02:06they're not gonna I mean they're not
1:02:08gonna go over there and try to run it
1:02:09themselves
1:02:10because that that's the thing that
1:02:11people don't understand
1:02:13gang Finn's never done a resource
1:02:15project
1:02:16Mariana will be the first soul
1:02:20project that they've done I mean they
1:02:21did they nibbled around the edges on
1:02:24small
1:02:26Assets in China that aren't going to get
1:02:29them where they want to go but gangfin's
1:02:31been really good at Partnerships tanshee
1:02:34not so much
1:02:35I mean if you look at the the
1:02:37personalities of the owners of those two
1:02:39companies they're they're very different
1:02:41and uh
1:02:43I've I I've known jangway ping for a
1:02:46long time and I've known Leland being
1:02:48forever
1:02:4920 plus years so I
1:02:53they're cut from very different cloth
1:02:56but I wouldn't think that the change in
1:02:59the ownership structure is
1:03:01gang Fen needs that to succeed
1:03:06and they're not going to be the ones who
1:03:08affect that success it's going to be
1:03:10Simon and his guys with help from I mean
1:03:14gankbent will help them out where they
1:03:16can but
1:03:17is not a big minor
1:03:20okay what what resource asset currently
1:03:24do they operate
1:03:30is that our odd answer none I believe
1:03:33yeah I mean that's well that's the thing
1:03:35I mean it's I never know what he's doing
1:03:37to me he's fucking with me
1:03:42what about what about do you think
1:03:44Albemarle are getting exposed by and
1:03:46gone I would never I would never say
1:03:48again or Albemarle expose themselves
1:03:52because I don't know buying top paying
1:03:55top dollar for limetown before full
1:03:58value you've got it full value and they
1:03:59call it they quoted it full value full
1:04:01full value before okay do you believe
1:04:04this is last and final
1:04:05it stayed at his best and final but yeah
1:04:09nobody ever said that when they were
1:04:11buying a house and then came back and
1:04:14paid 20 more
1:04:17is it another do you think no I think I
1:04:20think they've offered a fair I I don't
1:04:22think there's an issue with the price
1:04:24they've offered and I think the fact
1:04:25that given the board's on board with
1:04:27this one
1:04:29maybe they finally Dragon I should have
1:04:31waited before ramp up and potential
1:04:32issues in a lower price or not
1:04:36I am going to give them the benefit of
1:04:39the doubt that they have some math
1:04:42skills in that company somewhere
1:04:45well so Boston consultant so maybe not
1:04:51what about Green Hill
1:04:54Ary in that hole
1:04:56hold that region is there going to be
1:04:58Min res consolidation of that area now
1:05:02that they're looking at Bald Hill you've
1:05:03got that whole is it just going to be a
1:05:06big Min res sweep up
1:05:11everyone
1:05:16okay but
1:05:19where have they shown themselves to be
1:05:21operationally competent
1:05:24in the lithium space
1:05:27look at the product that's come out of
1:05:29Mount Marion
1:05:31four percent
1:05:33Who Bore the burden for that they laid
1:05:37off a huge burden on gank and a gang
1:05:39Finn took it because gangfin didn't when
1:05:41gangfin got to a certain size they
1:05:43realized okay we got to be basic we just
1:05:45can't buy keep buying scrap and recycle
1:05:48streams from people we can't be who we
1:05:50want to be and do that so they bought
1:05:53into Mount Marion
1:05:55and what did they get rewarded with
1:05:58four percent what did that do to their
1:06:00throughput
1:06:02it's pretty much a linear relationship
1:06:04between four and six percent as to what
1:06:06you're able to produce did that hurt Min
1:06:10res
1:06:11no who did hurt gangfin so in in my mind
1:06:18that's a shitty partnership
1:06:20but when I suppose when you say
1:06:22operational success that stands up more
1:06:25all body
1:06:27dependent rather than operational
1:06:30execution or not am I wrong there
1:06:32I would never say you were wrong you
1:06:35can't you can't well I I could and I
1:06:38would but when you're wearing it to
1:06:40yourself when you're wearing that Green
1:06:42Hat Man I mean turn is the one you want
1:06:46no I do not want that hat especially not
1:06:49after seeing your paint man
1:06:51for 200 bucks to a fan yeah it's true
1:06:54it's almost like selling lithium at 80
1:06:56000.
1:07:06I mean I'm just being very candid here
1:07:09and you know that's that's kind of what
1:07:11I do and people don't like it that's
1:07:13fine I don't really give a shit because
1:07:14I'm an old guy and they really can't
1:07:16hurt why did I get to that point in life
1:07:19when I really don't give a fuck
1:07:22yeah you're well on your way
1:07:25I mean if you're gonna fart three more
1:07:28times
1:07:30someone someone has been farting well
1:07:33yeah the one who yeah and you could say
1:07:35to me the one who smell it dealt it but
1:07:37it would not be true in this case Joe's
1:07:39farts wouldn't smell at all that I
1:07:41reckon
1:07:42it's like aromatherapy
1:07:45no I mean okay go back and did I answer
1:07:48your question
1:07:49yes yes sort of
1:07:52well ask it again and I'll I'll give you
1:07:54a more direct answer do you think that
1:07:56Min res can swipe up a lot of that area
1:07:59in with a bit of a potential underground
1:08:01partnership with develop and execute on
1:08:05tonnages
1:08:06but like as I said mount Marion let's
1:08:09just go back and look at when
1:08:12it's
1:08:13you got a DMS operation
1:08:16that has proven now what are we in year
1:08:20five or six
1:08:22and it it's it's gonna make money I mean
1:08:25this all this stuff's making money now
1:08:27yeah so it's it's not I mean what I say
1:08:30or you say doesn't matter as long as you
1:08:33know Chris has got the rock but Chris
1:08:35isn't very damn good at
1:08:39producing a high quality product he
1:08:41produces a mediocre product and wojin is
1:08:43mediocre Mount Marion's mediocre
1:08:46what is that primarily a function of
1:08:49the pro the processing the all body well
1:08:52no I I think it's I think you have
1:08:55part of it's the asset itself
1:08:57and part of is the fact that you know
1:09:00they they're it's OJT
1:09:02do you know what that means in Australia
1:09:05on the job training
1:09:07and sometimes it takes time and but
1:09:10that's and that's and you know what you
1:09:12cannot release this until I leave the
1:09:14country
1:09:15well I mean I I may have another lawsuit
1:09:19I mean I I said some stuff about Vulcan
1:09:22and
1:09:23somebody out there decided to serve me
1:09:26with cease and desist orders from two
1:09:28very high priced law firms on two
1:09:31continents anyway but okay so how do you
1:09:34look at Hill pilgrangora then where
1:09:36they're tracking now like they've been
1:09:39through the fine tune in there appears
1:09:41to be pumping out a shitload of sponge
1:09:43and ramping up to a million tons and the
1:09:45point there is on the job training is
1:09:46what they did there and they got it
1:09:48right and so I mean well okay let's just
1:09:51reflect back I went up there yeah in
1:09:55January of 2018 and Altura was very far
1:09:58ahead on the build of you know it was
1:10:00like Dale hadn't been there very long
1:10:02and I went up there and they didn't Ken
1:10:06says okay we'll be operating in November
1:10:08and I said wow that would be impressive
1:10:10and they were now they you know it took
1:10:12you know they had a ramp just like
1:10:14everybody else but they did they did a
1:10:16good job yeah first move is you have to
1:10:19figure it out you know yeah they did
1:10:21figure it out yeah and they got the best
1:10:23damn Instagram account in the lithium
1:10:25industry
1:10:26no but I I'm a big fan of those guys and
1:10:30I met Neil Biddle in Charlotte of all
1:10:33places in 2015. so I I go back that far
1:10:37with the pilbrey guys and yeah I think
1:10:39they're they're a real success story but
1:10:42that's not green bushes I mean that's
1:10:44that's the thing that people people all
1:10:47talk about wa like
1:10:49it's it is it's the it's the lithium
1:10:52capital of the world now
1:10:55without you I mean you can't you can't
1:10:58walk back on that I mean that's a fair
1:10:59statement but there's only one green
1:11:02bushes they did a great job with pill
1:11:04gangora
1:11:05in my opinion but it's not green bushes
1:11:09because it's like you got one Atacama
1:11:13and you got one green bushes
1:11:15and you know we can have that debate on
1:11:18whether avz's got this you mean okay put
1:11:21a great lithium asset in the middle of
1:11:23the worst freaking place in the world
1:11:25with no roads and you know all the
1:11:29problems they have and then you can keep
1:11:30talking about it until you're blue in
1:11:32the face oh they probably have the sides
1:11:33where they're just pry and the God will
1:11:35move it yeah well you know and I think
1:11:37he's going to move it to New Jersey yeah
1:11:39there you go and then you know Donald
1:11:41Trump's going to declare it uh we're
1:11:43making America great again okay so if
1:11:45you've got you got green bushes as the
1:11:47the top dog the flagship well I mean
1:11:50Bill gangor have done a great job
1:11:51Pilgrim minerals yep who do you think's
1:11:54the next up-and-comer globally
1:11:57that can sort of match what Pilgrim
1:11:59minerals did and maybe not get to Green
1:12:01Bush's level
1:12:03well and I'm gonna get a lot of hate for
1:12:05this because every time I talk about
1:12:07lithium Americas
1:12:09I think Thacker pass is gonna become
1:12:14whether you call it the green bushes or
1:12:16the Atacama of sedimentary assets it's
1:12:19huge
1:12:20and um yeah it's going to take some time
1:12:22to get it's going to be an expensive
1:12:24build everybody knows acknowledges that
1:12:27but let's make lithium in America great
1:12:30again
1:12:32oh there we go beautiful mate well this
1:12:35has been Sensational how does it all
1:12:37feel like a fucking idiot
1:12:40but I think we all want to listen back
1:12:41to this five times and sorry to bloody
1:12:43um insult your bum a dumb question I
1:12:45think maybe these boys sorted out it's
1:12:47all good we'll be all the wiser after we
1:12:49have some dinner with Joe you probably
1:12:51should cut this in half
1:12:55if I'm on the edit I will but Maddie
1:12:57wants
1:12:58shit I've talked about various people
1:13:00but I mean that's honestly I think
1:13:03that's one of the biggest problems with
1:13:04the lithium industry is there's very
1:13:05little honest dialogue about the
1:13:07problems you have
1:13:09an industry that's desperately needed
1:13:12and you have
1:13:14operators that aren't great and need to
1:13:18need to get a lot better to get the
1:13:20industry where it needs to go that just
1:13:22sounds like the mining industry
1:13:24okay
1:13:26I'm not talking shit about mining I mean
1:13:29I really do want to get out of this
1:13:30country a lot
1:13:32well Mike and Oregon Oregon in terms of
1:13:35the edit or more you want to talk
1:13:37underground morning you want to talk
1:13:38abbreviations FSI fucking send it
1:13:43it'll just we'll just Chuck it up like
1:13:46that
1:13:50we're all probably busting for a piss
1:13:52but
1:13:55um right do you want to John do a group
1:14:00well I want a freaking money of mine
1:14:04hoodie forget your already like
1:14:06sweat-leading yeah that's pretty sure
1:14:08we'll see what we can do appreciate your
1:14:10time Joe thank you very much it was a
1:14:12pleasure congratulations on your guy's
1:14:15success because I mean I I have heard
1:14:17only positive things and
1:14:19I'm not going to talk shit about any of
1:14:21the other people I can't tell all those
1:14:23people negative shit man I know I'm not
1:14:26but you were favorably compared
1:14:30to
1:14:33other commentators out there well
1:14:38if you get if you get Elon on the
1:14:40podcast if you smoke weed with Elon on
1:14:44your podcast I'll happily rip a few
1:14:46times
1:14:49anyway thanks guys it was a pleasure and
1:14:52you know you guys have really killed it
1:14:55and congrats thank you very much
1:14:58all right boys uh that was Bloody Andrew
1:15:01I wish we had beer in front of us like
1:15:03we did there that was uh and bloody
1:15:05awesome yeah awesome and a good steak
1:15:07afterwards so that awesome chat anything
1:15:11here anything any what did you get out
1:15:13of it that you didn't think you were
1:15:15gonna get
1:15:16lithium's not a commodity yeah that was
1:15:18interesting that's the one hey plenty of
1:15:20plenty of takeaways got to go back and
1:15:21listen again oh God yeah I've got to
1:15:23listen to about five times as I said in
1:15:25there
1:15:25right now beautiful thanks all the
1:15:28partners as always K drill anytime
1:15:31exploration JP search Tower capital and
1:15:33top drill and we got a new one coming on
1:15:36on Monday we'll unveil unveil to the
1:15:38money mourners very exciting mate all
1:15:40right right cheers Mighty Midas Hooter
1:15:43room
1:15:45the information contained in this
1:15:46episode of money of mine is of General
1:15:48nature only and does not take into
1:15:49account the objectives financial
1:15:51situation or needs of any particular
1:15:53person before making any investment
1:15:55decision you should consult with your
1:15:57financial advisor and consider how
1:15:59appropriate the advice is to your
1:16:01objectives financial situation and needs

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