"Is There a Framework for Knowing When to Quit?" — Transcript

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1. 0:00Is there a framework for knowing when to
2. 0:02quit?
3. 0:02>> Mhm.
4. 0:04>> So, I think there's the there's like the
5. 0:06math behind it. And the math I think is
6. 0:07pretty straightforward. So, like
7. 0:09when do you quit your business? I like
8. 0:12you've saved up 3 to 6 months of
9. 0:14personal savings, number one. Number two
10. 0:16is that you have started something
11. 0:18because nowadays in the digital age you
12. 0:19can begin a business on the side that
13. 0:21can generate income. And [snorts] that
14. 0:23income um in the small amount of time
15. 0:26that you're not working uh replaces or
16. 0:28at least matches the existing income you
17. 0:30have from your your current job. And
18. 0:32you've been able to do that or
19. 0:33demonstrate that income for like 3 to 6
20. 0:35months. If you do that, that's a very
21. 0:37like math way of approaching it. That
22. 0:39also is basically never the reason that
23. 0:41people are quitting their job.
24. 0:42[laughter]
25. 0:43Right? Like that's a really like I have
26. 0:45I have I have backlog. I have matched my
27. 0:47current income with my part-time work.
28. 0:49And if I just quit my full-time work, I
29. 0:51would probably make more. Very
30. 0:52reasonable. But never actually the
31. 0:54reason that people don't do it.
32. 0:55>> I was I was thinking about the two sort
33. 0:57of reasons why someone might quit
34. 0:59something or feel like they want to
35. 1:01quit. And one of them is clearly because
36. 1:02it's hard. And that's obviously not
37. 1:04reason enough to quit. And then there's
38. 1:05another one which you were speaking to
39. 1:06there, which is it's not moving me
40. 1:08towards a meaningful goal, irrespective
41. 1:10of how hard it is. Like a marathon,
42. 1:12you're raising money for a charity you
43. 1:14care about. It's hard, but you don't
44. 1:15quit.
45. 1:15>> Yeah.
46. 1:16>> And then there's maybe if you're running
47. 1:17a marathon for no apparent reason,
48. 1:19>> [laughter]
49. 1:20>> you know, there was no charity, there
50. 1:21was no one watching, there was no like
51. 1:23fitness benefit, then that's a a good I
52. 1:25guess moment to consider quitting.
53. 1:27Um my story mimics yours in a way that I
54. 1:29didn't realize
55. 1:30>> Nice.
56. 1:31>> I didn't realize you went through a
57. 1:32similar thing in terms of
58. 1:33parents disownment-ship.
59. 1:35>> Yeah.
60. 1:35>> Um
61. 1:36no real great option to to flee to, but
62. 1:39feeling like
63. 1:40the current path that would have led me
64. 1:42to be I don't know, a business
65. 1:43management student was significantly
66. 1:45worse on balance than
67. 1:47taking the risk. But if I think maybe a
68. 1:50point of distinction is it didn't I was
69. 1:52so naive that it didn't feel like a
70. 1:53risk.
71. 1:53>> Yeah.
72. 1:55So, what's really interesting about that
73. 1:56is
74. 1:57um
75. 1:58the guarantee. And so, a lot of times we
76. 2:00don't we don't look at what I call the
77. 2:02don't, which is like the the alternate
78. 2:03path. And so,
79. 2:06if I had played out my existing path, I
80. 2:08had a guarantee of outcome I didn't
81. 2:10want. It was just out of delay.
82. 2:13Whereas here, there's a chance that I
83. 2:16can make it. And so, one of the final
84. 2:19kind of framework for making the
85. 2:20decision was
86. 2:22guarantee bad, chance at good.
87. 2:25And I was like, well, I might as well
88. 2:27take a chance.
89. 2:28And I I strongly um
90. 2:31encourage thinking about uh
91. 2:34playing it out. And so, what I mean by
92. 2:36that is like, I think fear
93. 2:39exists in the vague, not in the
94. 2:42specific. And so, when you say, "I'm
95. 2:45going to quit my job and then what if
96. 2:47this doesn't work? I'm going to
97. 2:48failure." Tons of fear.
98. 2:50If I say, "I'm going to quit my job and
99. 2:53then I'm going to try and start a
100. 2:55business. And if the business doesn't
101. 2:57work, I'll probably have a compelling
102. 2:59story that I could tell for business
103. 3:01school if I wanted to to show that I had
104. 3:03some entrepreneurial slant. In the
105. 3:05meantime, I could use that experience
106. 3:06plus my job experience to probably get
107. 3:08another or maybe even better job in the
108. 3:10meantime and match or or supersede my
109. 3:13existing income. And the actual loss
110. 3:15would be maybe the savings that I had
111. 3:17saved up. But if I'm younger or I
112. 3:19haven't made as much money as I want,
113. 3:20then that's never been the amount of
114. 3:22money that would be material anyways on
115. 3:23the grand scheme of what I would like to
116. 3:25make. Um and in terms of living
117. 3:27situation, I will worst case
118. 3:30go back to my parents' house with my
119. 3:32tail between my legs or sleep at a
120. 3:34friend's couch because I have enough
121. 3:36people that would be willing to put me
122. 3:37up in a garage if I had to. And so, it's
123. 3:39like, okay. So, my actual worst case
124. 3:41scenario is just like, I have a cool
125. 3:43story and maybe some shame that I
126. 3:46self-inflicted cuz it's not like no one
127. 3:48else cares really. But it's
128. 3:49self-inflicted shame and maybe a detour
129. 3:51or a different story that I have to tell
130. 3:53later on in my career.
131. 3:56Not as much fear there, right? But like
132. 3:58the first one like I'll fail, everyone
133. 4:00will hate me, and I'll die.
134. 4:02>> The first one sounded like it was
135. 4:03written by your like amygdala. Like the
136. 4:05fear center. And the second one was pure
137. 4:07like prefrontal cortex. It was all
138. 4:08logic.
139. 4:09>> Yeah.
140. 4:09>> And I'm wondering, you know, as you're
141. 4:10going into that decision, obviously fear
142. 4:11is going to lead it. So of course you're
143. 4:13going to go for option one where you
144. 4:14just think about the downside. Maybe
145. 4:16there's a a practice that allows you to
146. 4:18get into your prefrontal cortex into
147. 4:19logic.
148. 4:20>> And I think that's I actually So I think
149. 4:21you nailed it and said it way better
150. 4:23than I did. [laughter]
151. 4:24But I think that's I think going from
152. 4:26vague to specific
153. 4:27basically disengages your amygdala
154. 4:29because
155. 4:30it's it can't reason the logic chain of
156. 4:33causation causality of what's going to
157. 4:34happen next in chain of events. And so
158. 4:37[clears throat] when you get into the
159. 4:38specific of it, all of a sudden you're
160. 4:39like,
161. 4:41Okay.
162. 4:42I'm not going to be homeless and then
163. 4:43shamed and die.
164. 4:45Um
165. 4:46I might live in inferior living
166. 4:48conditions for short period, which by
167. 4:50the way, when you're later on in your
168. 4:51life you'll look back and think of as
169. 4:53the good old days cuz I can't believe I
170. 4:54was couch surfing, I was pursuing my
171. 4:55dreams, right? It's it's only like in
172. 4:58the moment that it feels bad. When you
173. 4:59look back like even I I find this
174. 5:01hilarious like
175. 5:02like how long after you do something
176. 5:04embarrassing is it funny?
177. 5:06>> [laughter]
178. 5:06>> Right? Like at some point for most all
179. 5:08of us with enough time the shameful
180. 5:10experience becomes funny.
181. 5:12And so if it is going to become funny
182. 5:14eventually, it might as well become
183. 5:15funny now.
184. 5:16>> Yeah.
185. 5:17>> And so it's just like pulling the time
186. 5:18horizon up. But all of that's prefrontal
187. 5:20cortex decision making. And so
188. 5:22No, but I think that's exactly like I
189. 5:24think that that nailed it. Because when
190. 5:25I thought about this this decision,
191. 5:27obviously I had my very, you know,
192. 5:28emotional statement around like his
193. 5:30dream has to die for mine to live. Yes.
194. 5:32Also, logic downside risk here. I'll
195. 5:35have a story. And I can always get my
196. 5:37job back.
197. 5:39Okay. And if I can't get that job back,
198. 5:40I'll have other ones that will be
199. 5:42available. Fine. And if I have a
200. 5:44downgrading and some people think that
201. 5:45I'm not as successful, then Okay.
202. 5:47I'll not stop though.
203. 5:49>> Mhm.
204. 5:49>> And so I think that that that
205. 5:50demystifies a lot of the fears. I think
206. 5:52that applies not just for
207. 5:53entrepreneurial fears. I think it
208. 5:54applies for any fear. Like, I'm going to
209. 5:55tell like I can't tell this person this
210. 5:57bad news. All right, let's play it out.
211. 5:59I say something and then they're going
212. 6:00to kill me? Probably not. So, what's
213. 6:02going to happen? I'll say these words
214. 6:04and then there's they'll they'll flip
215. 6:06the table, they'll they'll flick me off,
216. 6:08they'll maybe just feel hurt. And maybe
217. 6:11they'll cry, maybe they'll shout. Okay.
218. 6:13Okay, if they shouted at me, what do I
219. 6:15do? Like and you just kind of play it
220. 6:16out and you're like, okay, I think I
221. 6:16have like most of these conditions
222. 6:19prepared for. Mhm. And then all of a
223. 6:21sudden you can like have those things.
224. 6:23>> What you also said is that
225. 6:25in the face of guaranteed misery, any
226. 6:27option is better.
227. 6:28>> Yeah.
228. 6:29>> And like
229. 6:29>> It's real.
230. 6:30>> You get to live once. Yeah. So like, why
231. 6:32would guaranteed misery be better than
232. 6:34any available option?
233. 6:36>> It's the latest counting. That's What's
234. 6:37crazy is the latest counting happens
235. 6:39both ways. Like, um
236. 6:41So like, you set your alarm for 5:00
237. 6:42a.m. at night and you're like, I'm going
238. 6:44to wake up at 5:00. But that's because
239. 6:46you're delaying the pain of waking up.
240. 6:48And when it's immediate, when I have to
241. 6:50quit the job, like I'll quit my job
242. 6:51tomorrow for 20 years.
243. 6:53>> [laughter]
244. 6:54>> And so it's just like we always we do we
245. 6:55do we delay the fact that we're going to
246. 6:57be miserable into the present uh to it
247. 7:00like a like we we massively discount
248. 7:02what a whole lifetime of misery would
249. 7:04be.
250. 7:04>> Amen.
251. 7:05>> Real quick, I'm going to show you the
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255. 7:12I've now done multiple times. And so I
256. 7:14can say with a lot of confidence that
257. 7:15these are the stages as head count
258. 7:17increases that you need to get through.
259. 7:19And I broke each of these down by eight
260. 7:21different functions of the business,
261. 7:23what the constraint feels like, like
262. 7:24what are the symptoms of it when you're
263. 7:26going through it, and then what steps we
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