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Is Bitcoin About to Shock Everyone in Q4? — Transcript

by Anthony Pompliano · 9,910 words · 1,428 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00I think most of what's driving crypto
0:01right now is a combination of new
0:04players coming in. This is what a bull
0:06market is about. And you're right, FOMO
0:08is going to start to kick in very, very
0:09soon. I said before when Bitcoin got
0:11above 82,000, that was the confirmation
0:13[music] of the bull trend. I think we're
0:15in that. The fundamental side's getting
0:17stronger and stronger by the day. I I
0:20think we're at a point where this stuff
0:22is about to [music] kind of take off,
0:23particularly with what happened today
0:25with the What's going on, guys? Today,
0:27we got a great conversation with Jordy
0:28Visser. In this one, we're going to talk
0:30about what's going on in the macro
0:31world. Why are people so fearful when
0:32the data actually says you should be
0:34bullish? What's going on in AI? Why is
0:36the rise of personal AI assistance very
0:38bullish for token consumption or the big
0:40model labs actually coming under
0:42pressure or not? Jord and I disagree and
0:44then we agree on a big topic that I
0:45think you're going to enjoy. And then we
0:46talk about crypto, public equities, and
0:48what he sees going on in people's
0:50portfolios, how the end of the year
0:51should go, where we're going next year,
0:53and maybe he even gives a little bit of
0:55alpha, something he calls the micron
0:57moment, which I think that all of you
0:58will be very interested in. Here's my
1:00latest conversation with Jordi Visser.
1:02All right, Jordy, it seems like every
1:04single person I talk to from the
1:05traditional world, they are freaking out
1:07about macro factors. They're saying
1:08interest rates are going up, oil's at
1:10100, the 10-year keeps going higher.
1:12They are so worried that the big crash,
1:15the Michael Bur moment is coming. I
1:17don't get the sense that you agree.
1:20I actually think it's stupid.
1:22Podcast over. I I mean, I've posted an X
1:28a bunch about this this week. I did a
1:30subscriber video and I had like 25
1:32slides of of why this is just add it to
1:37the list of doomer stuff that comes out.
1:41uh tariffs and the war and oil's going
1:45to infinity and all of these things. So
1:47this is the way the economy works.
1:52We have a very diverse economy in the
1:54US. We have a diverse stock market.
1:56Theoretically, we have 500 names in the
1:58S&P 500.
2:00Rates mattered a lot before the great
2:02financial crisis. They mattered a lot
2:04into the great financial crisis because
2:06the economy was built on autos, housing.
2:10Um that's why we created things like the
2:12leading economic indicators. We have
2:14what's called financial conditions
2:16index. Everything changed after the
2:18great financial crisis. So the first
2:21thing about rates are everyone's like
2:23we're at 20-year highs for rates. Well,
2:26let's just go back to what that means.
2:27That means by definition rates just
2:29before the great financial crisis. I'm
2:31not sure anyone got the memo, but to
2:34save us from the great financial crisis,
2:36they had to move rates to zero and then
2:38we stayed at zero for a long time to get
2:42us out of the problem. So really what's
2:45happened to rates is they've normalized.
2:46Nominal GDP is six and change percent.
2:49Historically 10ear rates should be 200
2:51basis points above. Now let's say it's
2:53about it. That changed in 1997. So let's
2:56say it just goes to even. We're still
2:59cheap relative to nominal GDP. Now, that
3:02matters because GDP is growing at six
3:04and a half percent. Theoretically, if
3:06you just take what that is, that means
3:08you'd have to have rates above it to
3:10where it would be difficult to make
3:11money if that's kind of how much money
3:12you can make investing wise or
3:14transaction-wise, business-wise.
3:17>> But that's not the case. So, with inside
3:19the S&P 500 are a lot of zombie
3:22companies. I mean, I hate to say it, but
3:26home builders don't make much money
3:27these days. Auto companies, Ford, GM,
3:30>> is that stuff just interest rate driven,
3:33or do you think that is like a
3:34structural change in the market and home
3:37builders, as an example, are going to
3:39have a tough time for the next 20 years?
3:41>> I think home builders are going to have
3:43a tough time for ever. Um, I think the
3:46economy is changing. I think
3:47demographics are changing. I think the
3:49way people view um mobilization having
3:53the flexibility of moving from state to
3:55state, country to country, that's been a
3:57change with the younger generation for
4:00some time. The old I go to college, I
4:02get a job, I buy a house after I, you
4:05know, I have kids and then I stay there
4:06for 30, 40 years. That doesn't exist
4:08anymore. And so, we don't have enough
4:11housing in the country. So, do I think
4:12there'll be more apartments and things
4:14like that? Yeah. Do I think Airbnb will
4:16be? Yeah, I think all of those things
4:17will happen. But to compare the economy,
4:19and this is the best way to do it, and
4:21this is what I'm including in this
4:22week's video. If you take the revenue
4:24for Micron and Nvidia in 2015, so 11
4:28years ago,
4:29>> and you compare that to Ford, GM, and
4:31the Homebuilders,
4:33you're talking about Ford, GM, and the
4:35Homebuilders being like almost 20 times
4:37the size of the annual revenue for
4:40Micron, Nvidia. And now you fast
4:41forward, Micron and Nvidia alone have
4:44more than those those the homebuilders
4:47plus Ford and and GM. But even worse
4:50than that,
4:52the expectations of revenue growth for
4:54the next year for Nvidia are almost the
4:57entire size of the revenue that will be
4:59generated. We just have a completely
5:01different economy. And so when people
5:03roll this stuff out, once it starts
5:05with, oh, every time this has happened
5:08over the past 50 years, X happens. This
5:10is not the same economy. And I'll just
5:12as as both being sports fans, they
5:15changed the rules in the NFL. You know,
5:17you used to be able to use stick them on
5:19your hands to, you know, grab intercept
5:21the ball. You could hold on to someone,
5:23you wouldn't let go. A lot of different
5:24rules. You can't touch anyone in the NFL
5:26anymore. You can't touch the
5:27quarterback. Is it fair to compare stats
5:29of the 1970s and 80s to today? Of course
5:33not. But somehow or another, macro
5:35people that are in their 50s that never
5:37touch AI, and that's my big beef is that
5:40if you actually used AI and you saw
5:42where things were going, you actually
5:44saw the productivity gains, you'd
5:45recognize that the economy's changed. So
5:47that's why whether it's oil, whether
5:48it's rates, it's not the same economy as
5:51before 2007. And that's because of the
5:53iPhone.
5:54>> Do are you aware of any measurement that
5:55basically looks at uh sector-based
5:58dollar flows? So like, you know, there's
6:00capital flows. people pay attention to
6:01macro in terms of uh liquidity cycles
6:03and things like that. But it's a very
6:04interesting way to think about okay how
6:06much aggregate dollars are going towards
6:09home builders and the revenue and profit
6:11that's growing there versus maybe some
6:12of these other sectors and and the
6:14reason I immediately am intrigued by
6:16that is it's not just that oh Micron and
6:19Nvidia were low and now they're high.
6:21It's that they're actually accelerating.
6:23And so if you look at this not as a
6:25static thing but a dynamic trend they
6:28should pull away very aggressively here
6:30and then the question becomes okay well
6:33what are the sectors that are getting
6:35hammered you mentioned housing and car
6:37manufacturing but I don't know I could
6:39probably think of very quickly 10 or 12
6:41you know different types of businesses
6:42that are all going to be in somewhat of
6:44a static you know um kind of environment
6:47going forward
6:48>> I mean there's a huge opportunity to
6:50just take capital out of those sectors
6:52>> Yep. and rotate them over and almost
6:55indiscriminate of names. It is just
6:57literally where is the momentum and
6:59growth coming from
7:02like a Buffett style approach. I don't
7:04think that buying things for less than
7:06they're worth is ever going to go out of
7:07style, but just like buying quote
7:10unquote good, strong, cash flowing
7:11businesses feels like that type of value
7:14investor may have a tough time going
7:16forward.
7:16>> So, let's go back to 2015. So, the other
7:20thing that I did is, and let's take it
7:22back to the iPhone. So, when the iPhone,
7:24believe it or not, when the iPhone came
7:26out, remember that was at the end of a
7:297-year bare market in technology. So, we
7:32had the dot bubble and it took 7 years
7:35all the way into the great financial
7:36crisis to basically get back to where we
7:38were at that time. Technology
7:42was about 13% of the S&P 500. And this
7:45is where your question on revenue so
7:47people understand you can have a lot of
7:49revenue in a sector but if it's not
7:51growing the S&P 500 is not going to
7:53value it but S&P 500 does care about the
7:55revenues but it cares about the growth
7:58and right now the S&P 500 if you take
8:01technology sector which is going to
8:03include software and semis you add in
8:07basically companies like Netflix and uh
8:11Google and Meta and Amazon and Tesla
8:14because they're technology companies,
8:16but they're in other sectors. You're up
8:18to 56% of the S&P 500 now. 56. Wow.
8:22>> So, we've already hurt all of these
8:25others. This is what gets into the other
8:27thing people are talking about. So,
8:29>> there's this new highs, new lows, and
8:31the breath. The breath is horrible.
8:33Okay, let's go through what this means.
8:35If seven companies are winning and the
8:38tech side is now 56%. Whenever tech is
8:41dominating, these companies are the
8:43breath is going to be bad by definition.
8:45But if you move rates higher, tech is
8:48insensitive to rates. And this is the
8:50other mistake people are making. Now,
8:52the doomers will tell you that, "Oh my
8:54god, we need capital and this is
8:56borrowing money." And I've said
8:57repeatedly on everything I speak at,
8:59there is absolutely no sensitivity for
9:01rates in the AI trade. None. You can
9:04move it up a lot. If compute prices
9:07don't come down, Nvidia, it just doesn't
9:10matter. I mean, I know it's hard for
9:12people to believe that, but the reality
9:14is the margins for Micron, they just
9:16released earnings this week, 87%.
9:19There is so much margin in what
9:21Anthropic does and what OpenAI does that
9:23they're selling compute at prices
9:25because people need it. It's
9:27intelligence. It's incredible. They need
9:30it.
9:30>> I may disagree with some of this.
9:31>> Okay. Well, let's let's finish the the
9:33statement first. So when you look at
9:35newo new highs and new lows and everyone
9:36goes look at all the new lows. You know
9:38what the new lows are in? Consumer
9:39staples.
9:40>> True.
9:41>> Utilities, real estate, you know what
9:43those names are? They're all interest
9:45rate sensitive. They all they have no
9:47benefit from the AI situation cuz AI is
9:50driving rates higher. It's hurting these
9:52groups. And that's why they're trading
9:53at 52- week lows because who wants to
9:55own a consumer staples and a utility
9:58when they're basically just synthetic
10:00bond positions when bond rates are going
10:02higher?
10:03I agree that the rate sensitive
10:06businesses 100% are under pressure,
10:09going to be under pressure until things
10:10change. Anyone who disagrees with that,
10:12I think that that's actually a uh
10:14agreement point between the like doomers
10:16and the AI folks is there's a certain
10:18part of the economy if rates go up,
10:20they're going to get hurt on tech, the
10:23individual businesses, I agree. I do
10:25think though there's a connection
10:26between rates going up and the top in
10:30November of 2021 as an example. So the
10:33Fed comes out and says, "Hey, we are
10:34going to start raising rates." They
10:35don't do it till March of 22, but that
10:38pretty much marked the top. If you go
10:39back to 200 uh 2000 kind of bubble,
10:42right? Same thing. Rates, they kind of
10:44forecast, hey, we're going to raise
10:45rates, market turns over. So in a weird
10:48way, it doesn't impact the actual
10:50businesses, but on an overall like
10:52almost macro basis, when they say
10:54they're going to raise rates, usually
10:55that has marked some sort of top, which
10:57I think is what the doomers are kind of
10:58pulling back to. I think your point it
11:01sounds like is well rates are going up
11:03right now and the market is going up too
11:05which kind of like violates that that
11:06viewpoint. So put that aside for one
11:08second. I am um I went from anthropic
11:14open AI etc being the best businesses in
11:17the world to now I think I'm in the camp
11:19of there's an increasing chance that
11:21they are going to be way underperform
11:23what people think and there are three
11:25data points I'd love your reaction to.
11:27First is token consumption per customer
11:29seems to have exploded and now is
11:32starting to turn over in a number of
11:34things. We see this in the ramp AI index
11:36spending is down. We also see this in a
11:38number of these kind of metrics that
11:40look at you know whether it's open
11:41router or whatever that that that's
11:42coming down. We also know uh Grock
11:45recently released their latest uh model
11:47and they showed a chart of performance
11:49and price. Everything is getting better
11:51performance and price is coming down. So
11:53it looks like everything's kind of
11:54diving down into the right. Well, if you
11:57take those two numbers, number of tokens
11:59processed times price of token, that is
12:02ultimately the revenue of the model
12:03labs. So talking to Dan Ives this week
12:05and I said, look, if those two numbers
12:06are both coming down
12:08anthropic, like the latest charts are
12:10just kind of showing slight growth, but
12:12to like plateau revenue. And so as
12:15businesses realize like maybe we need to
12:16own more of this ourselves and not just
12:18outsource everything to these two
12:19companies. It feels like there's some
12:21pressure there. Now the overall market
12:24is growing maybe there's like breath in
12:26AI where like the revenue flows but
12:29could there be weakness in the model
12:30labs and maybe some pressure of them get
12:32actually getting public yet the AI trade
12:34more broadly continues and so like
12:36you're almost getting like a
12:37reallocation of where value is acrewing.
12:41>> So let me I'm going to disagree with a
12:43lot of what you said. Yes,
12:44>> but not the facts. Okay,
12:46>> so the the things you highlighted.
12:47>> Oh, great. Just call me dumb. [laughter]
12:50>> No, but you're falling into the trap of
12:53uh that most people get into, which is
12:55well, let's look at this data. Let's go
12:56through. So, let's let's
12:57>> save me, Jordy. No, when So, the first
13:00part of this year was about token
13:02maxing. Let's just throw tons of tokens
13:04inefficiently at everything and see what
13:05happens.
13:06>> Okay. Well, we knew that was going to
13:07end. So, when you look at the ramp index
13:09and all this stuff,
13:10>> the token cost will is deflationary.
13:13It's going to continue to come down.
13:15There's models now that 3 months ago
13:17from I mean even even open AI has the
13:20models from 3 months ago which are
13:24better today than 3 months ago are
13:26cheaper than they were back then. So
13:28everything is moving that way. So let's
13:30leave that alone.
13:31>> We've entered the agentic side.
13:33>> Mhm.
13:34>> The token numbers are going to explode.
13:37>> We are going to see So all we had were
13:40enterprise agents.
13:41>> Mhm. 8 billion people on the planet
13:43didn't use anything. Well, now Grock,
13:47Instinct, Muse are just starting.
13:50>> But how many of those So this is where I
13:51think the nuance is. How many of those
13:53use OpenAI or anthropic models?
13:54>> Well, no, no, no. Not so let me get to
13:56the end because there let's go what you
13:58said at the beginning. I am not some
14:01bull on open AI and anthropic. But
14:04>> are you a bear?
14:05>> No. At the But here's the thing. Do I
14:07think their growth rate has already
14:09passed the fastest point? Absolutely. So
14:11the conversation remember two months ago
14:13was they're they're on an annualized run
14:15rate which is still there philanthropic
14:16of 100 plus billion. Okay.
14:18>> Nice business. Like by the way I'm not
14:20uh I'm not saying I'm not jealous of
14:22having that business.
14:23>> Let's just get something straight for
14:24everyone who's like wants to fade these
14:26guys. The total revenue for this year
14:29that OpenAI and Anthropic will have at
14:31the end of this year will be greater
14:33than the entire software revenue. So
14:37let's let's just get something straight
14:39like these are the most profit the these
14:41are the fastest growing companies in the
14:43history. Anthropic was a $50 billion
14:45company. It's now a multi-t trillion in
14:47a year and a half. Like you can't fade
14:49what's gone on. Do I think they're going
14:51to get to a trillion dollars in revenue?
14:52Absolutely not. But do I think people
14:55are underestimating what the
14:58biotech companies want to use? What the
15:00nanotechnology companies want to use?
15:02What the everything in the physical
15:04science will pay for frontier
15:05intelligence? You're crazy if you think
15:07they're going to use cheaper models.
15:08Like in the hedge fund industry where
15:10I'm from, this has already happened.
15:12Like Jane Street, Millennium, they're
15:14all using Anthropic. So, everyone's
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16:43don't know if Frontier Intelligence is
16:45the actual right label for Open
16:46Anthropic anymore. And I'll give you let
16:49me give you two examples.
16:51I think everyone starts with I want to
16:53use AI. I think AI could be valuable.
16:55And so what you do is you outsource to
16:57what is the smartest thing I could use
16:58that's kind of off the shelf. And you go
17:00right to these guys.
17:01>> There is no way in hell that at Sylvia
17:05with less than 10 people on an
17:06engineering team. We are able to build
17:09better models that are more accurate
17:10than these trillion dollar companies for
17:12personal finance. and Jane Street can't
17:15figure out how to build a better model
17:16for their specific use case in terms of
17:19custom AI harnesses, data pipelines, all
17:22the model weights and and the training
17:24etc. And so what I think and again this
17:28is where uh we are now entering a world
17:30of uh I call jordy thinking
17:32probabilistic thinking
17:33>> of I can't say this with 100% truth but
17:36I know there's not zero
17:39>> I think that open anthropic for many
17:41businesses are the perfect on-ramp so
17:43you get this acceleration on a per
17:45customer basis and then the customer
17:47start to say well can we get better
17:49intelligence can we get cheaper
17:50intelligence they start to try to
17:51optimize that optimization point almost
17:54every CEO I talked to the private market
17:55is saying we are starting to do this
17:57internally. And so to me, what that
18:00means is their future growth is about
18:02how do we go get more of the people who
18:03do not currently use AI to get onboarded
18:06because they're almost like leaking
18:08their existing users. The per token
18:10usage is going down. So they have to go
18:12get new customers to replace the like
18:14leakage or the like retention almost to
18:16some degree. Does that make sense?
18:18>> Yeah. But this gets back into I the part
18:20I disagree with is for everything that
18:22you've said if I told you the most
18:24important point is that we're in the 1%
18:28>> right now of usage
18:29>> and that Jevans paradox is a real thing
18:31which I completely agree with. There's
18:34no way that open AI and anthropic don't
18:37continue to grow. So there's a
18:39difference between growing as fast as
18:41they did for the early inception and
18:43continuing to grow. As someone who
18:45>> I'm not saying they're not going to
18:46grow, by the way. I I agree that they're
18:47going to keep growing. It's just the
18:49nuance dynamics now agree
18:51>> are changing because you also have like
18:53Jev
18:54>> right shows up like like there there's a
18:55lot of stuff that are happening where uh
18:57you made a comment 3 months ago
19:00>> the easy money and AI is over.
19:01>> Yeah.
19:02>> We are now like I'm fully on board with
19:04that and I think that it's becoming very
19:05obvious you can't just be like the big
19:07model labs get all the money.
19:08>> Correct. And and that part I agree with
19:10the the thing the thing that as a user
19:13and using my son as like an example
19:17we both will crap on Gemini.
19:20>> I don't when the new model comes out
19:22well this is good.
19:23>> It makes mistakes that I have open AI
19:26and claude fix constantly.
19:30>> So I think people that use it all the
19:32time and that are scared of mistakes and
19:34hallucinations and things like that know
19:36the models that are more likely to do
19:37this. I think when you make the decision
19:40to go to open source and you go to these
19:43I I personally believe on my own
19:45experience, it better be for stuff that
19:47isn't super important. That's why I
19:49brought up the Jane Street and
19:50Millennium. I don't agree that all these
19:53models are even close to the same. I've
19:56used I I stopped my uh Open Claw and my
19:59Hermes because I was able to do things
20:02in Claude and Anthropic that or in in
20:04Claude and Open AI which were different.
20:06And then when Grockot came out and Muse
20:08came out and everything else, Muse is
20:10not as good a model anything close to
20:12what open but it doesn't need to be.
20:13It's just doing basic stuff for me. So I
20:15think we're saying the same thing. I
20:17just think we agree on this.
20:18>> I think the hardest thing for people to
20:19understand and the most important thing
20:20that I want to get across to people,
20:23you've heard Jeb's paradox.
20:25We're at that point right now. What
20:27happened the last two months may have
20:30been a air pocket on one way which is
20:33this token cost thing but we're entering
20:35a very very dangerous period now for the
20:38next year.
20:39>> The usage is going to skyrocket and we
20:42don't have enough compute.
20:43>> So this gets back to the other thing
20:45OpenAI and Anthropic own.
20:48I listened to the interview with the
20:50instinct founder.
20:52>> Did you listen to it?
20:52>> Yeah. Noah on uh invest like the best.
20:54Yeah. He specifically highlighted that
20:57he underestimated his compute needs.
21:00>> He said, I think he said 40% of his time
21:02is being spent trying to accumulate
21:03compute and he's having a hard time
21:05because he's growing 10% per day. And so
21:09he's like, "How do I project out? If I
21:11double my compute, you know, I basically
21:13use it all up in a couple weeks and then
21:15how do I kind of project how much I'm
21:17going to need?"
21:17>> So here's the scary thing. We're
21:20entering the hype the the the parabola
21:23of efficiency and compute as well with
21:25Vera Rubin. So Blackwells were great.
21:27You the efficiency of the chips. Well,
21:29now we're getting the Vera Rubin. Who
21:31owns all of that? The big guys do.
21:33>> I mean, it's the speculation between
21:36semi analysis and what I've heard on the
21:38all in pod is that open anthropic
21:41combined will own up to 50% of all the
21:44compute coming online. I mean, isn't
21:47that a monopoly or a duopoly of some
21:50sort on compute? And so, this is where I
21:53I don't think you can make the
21:55assumptions that they won't actually go
21:57up again sometime next year just because
21:59they have the compute, which means two
22:00things. Number one, they can service
22:01more people uh more companies. And
22:04number two, their models start getting
22:06better and better because you need more
22:09computing power to actually get to the
22:11level of the IQ that they eventually
22:12want to get to for the physical
22:14sciences.
22:15So um
22:17let's talk about the personal agents
22:19maybe as a uh an area where I think
22:21tokens are going to continue to expand.
22:23We now have just this past week um Robin
22:26Hood announced a bunch of agentic
22:28trading. We have uh OpenAI launched
22:32dots. We have uh Ryan Sirant launched an
22:37AI agent within his simple app which
22:39again is like a very applied AI type
22:41thing. We have Muse, which was already
22:44out, but now is going after small
22:45business.
22:46>> We have uh Noah, the founder of
22:49Instinct, who's basically come out and
22:50said they're doing over a billion
22:51dollars of transactions, 40% I think
22:53it's on travel, that gave a bunch of
22:55numbers in terms of what how what's
22:56going on, how they're doing it, growing
22:5810% day overday. Uh with Sylvia, we
23:01announced now you can text it in a more
23:03agentic way, then have to go into a
23:05archaic dashboard and use it that way.
23:09And then I don't I've lost count. I we
23:11would spend an hour of me rattling off
23:13every single product launch that I saw
23:15from some net new agent that got
23:18released, including I don't know if you
23:20saw this one. There is one I don't want
23:22to say the name because I don't know how
23:24legit it is that you can start with the
23:26agent as a baby and raise it. [snorts]
23:29>> I I haven't heard this
23:30>> launch video was awesome. Looked cool.
23:32Hilarious. I'm sure they've got some
23:34pitch as to why that's better, but like
23:37we're we're [laughter]
23:38we're in banana land a little bit on the
23:40AI agents already. How are you
23:43evaluating personal agents? What are you
23:45using? And where do you think, you know,
23:47is there consolidation or like are you
23:48going to have 20 agents across 20
23:50different use cases?
23:51>> Okay, so there's two parts to this and I
23:53want to make sure the second part
23:55everyone hears first um in terms of you
23:58getting back to it.
24:00Every day since I put Muse on my phone,
24:03I have bought more and more crypto every
24:06single day.
24:07>> Because Muse told you or because you
24:09just become more convinced that
24:10>> because this to me, so I I people have
24:13watched this together now for a while.
24:16Last year when I was frustrated by just
24:18like listening to people not understand
24:20the Micron story about token growth,
24:23the agent stuff with Muse and all of
24:26this, it just blows me away every day
24:28with more things that I can do with it.
24:30And
24:32so let me answer that part. I want to
24:34get to the crypto connection because I
24:36think if anyone should be demanding from
24:39their Fidelity, their Robin Hood,
24:41everything that they have the ability of
24:42at least thinking about this. I really
24:44do believe that we're entering something
24:46that is just breathtaking
24:48cryptoconnected
24:49to agents. So on the agent side, it
24:52started with Grockbot and that was a
24:53game changer for me. Now I use Grockbot
24:55more for the work stuff. I have one
24:58chief of staff who I go to when I want
25:02to have a meeting with the agents or I
25:04want to send off the agents. But
25:05underneath that chief of staff, I now
25:07have two middle management chief of
25:09staff.
25:09>> Uh-oh. Middle managers. Middle managers.
25:13Hey, pull up a chair. Let me tell you
25:14about automation. So I have one for AI,
25:17>> man. You capitalist pig. You going after
25:20the middle managers. Too much time in
25:21Morgan Stanley. So one one side is uh
25:25has got a an AI side. The other side has
25:27a crypto side. And I send them out to
25:29keep up on what's going on.
25:31What Muse did for me. And I think this
25:35is what people need to hear when they go
25:36Meta won. Meta didn't win anything. It's
25:39not even like there's there's [snorts]
25:42going to be so many personal AI and
25:44that's the big thing and that's why it
25:45matters so much is that when Apple comes
25:47out we're going to have a ton. And who
25:49do I think is going to be better at
25:50security? Apple or Meta. I'm I'm going
25:53to go with Apple. It's just my my guess.
25:54But regardless of that, Muse and all of
25:57them, if you haven't used them yet,
26:00I think you're missing the same way that
26:02when we talked about not understanding
26:04tokens, you're going to miss out on some
26:06activity to invest. I think with agents
26:09that my brain only goes one place which
26:11is there's no way for the current system
26:16to handle the speed and the ability to
26:18do things like this. It's just
26:21impossible. And I will give you one
26:25important thought process on this. So
26:26we've heard about agent swarms. So let's
26:28take the two parts of agents. The reason
26:30there's agent swarms now is the same
26:32reason that we have personal agents. We
26:34couldn't have personal agents unless we
26:36got to the point where we had agent
26:37swarms. Because at the end of the day,
26:39that's kind of what you're doing. You
26:41need to have enough IQ to be able to do
26:43all these different tasks, have the
26:45memory, have it, and agent swarms have
26:47the same thing. The reason this is
26:48important, the current system, when you
26:51go to wire money to someone, if you go
26:52to wire money to someone on a Friday at
26:543:00, it'll settle on Monday. Where's
26:58your money for the last two days?
27:00Where's it sitting? And I challenge
27:02anyone to actually know where their
27:04money is when they use a credit card to
27:06go buy something and it goes from your
27:08bank account to the merchant through the
27:10credit card. I keep hearing people tell
27:12me, "Well, Vis and Mastercard are going
27:13to be the winners in this." I'm like,
27:14"No, they're not. They have no chance. I
27:16I don't even know where this comes
27:17from." And this argument comes up all
27:19the time. the amount of steps between
27:22buying something and settling something.
27:24The longer it takes, even if it's 20
27:27seconds versus one second, that's
27:29multiple times for an agent swarm to
27:31come in and steal the money along. You
27:33need every single part of it. So, you
27:35remember the cold wallet story, right?
27:37[snorts]
27:38Crypto is based on cryptography. Like,
27:40this is going to be a necessity to make
27:42sure that it's instant cuz that is the
27:44best defense on anything. If you're
27:46worried about someone robbing your
27:48house, but they will only rob it when
27:49you're not there, well, the best thing
27:50would be to go outside for a second,
27:52come back in. The longer you leave, you
27:53go on vacation, the higher the
27:54probability. I think people need to
27:56start understanding that the the the
27:58lineup of cryptography to AIS is not
28:01just about them wanting to do things
28:03fast. It's not just the cost. It is also
28:06the time of risk against agent swarms.
28:10And I think that's going to become more
28:11of a story. This is the reason why every
28:13time I use it, I'm like, "Oh my gosh,
28:14this is so obvious that number one,
28:19we didn't need crypto. We didn't need
28:21the tokens. We didn't need the altcoins.
28:23We needed the layer ones to kind of draw
28:26capital in to build out the
28:27infrastructure that was necessary. So,
28:30when you have the L1's growing and
28:32continuing to get bigger and bigger,
28:33well, that means the ecosystem is
28:34getting bigger. And as Michael Sailor
28:36says, the capital structure can now
28:37change because we actually have digital
28:38collateral. We have Bitcoin. We have
28:40Ethereum. So we have the programmable
28:41side but you need that thing that
28:44actually makes it well this is the use
28:46case and I said the same thing if you go
28:47back and look when Uber started Uber
28:50didn't start as a company in terms of
28:52the idea until the app store happened
28:55then they went oh we can do this so I
28:57think you're going to see innovation
28:58after innovation related to this so what
29:00I have spent my time on as someone who
29:03listens to so many podcasts a week
29:06[snorts] very seldom now do I listen to
29:08moonshots very seldom do I into any of
29:11these in
29:13>> they've been dominated by crypto now and
29:16not rah hoodie crypto I mean the
29:21functional use cases and different ways
29:23to value these because I am getting
29:26constantly I mean this has happened
29:28three times this week calls with hedge
29:33fund and ass and asset man let's just
29:34say asset managers
29:36tell me about why I should be investing
29:39in crypto
29:40These conversations never existed. When
29:42you and I talked, you gave me all the
29:44horror stories of walking into rooms.
29:46>> They are asking you in terms of I hear
29:49you talking about crypto and I disagree
29:52so convince me or they are saying I am
29:54interested. Help me better understand
29:56you know where to put the money that I
29:57want to invest.
29:58>> Yeah. The best analogy is um the door
30:01was closed and you had to pry it open.
30:04>> They're looking through the door.
30:05>> I see. they they're they're interested
30:07and the reason is and this is the
30:09>> this is the Wall Street FOMO building
30:11up.
30:11>> I I don't I so I think it is coming from
30:14from two directions. One is every day
30:16Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, City
30:17Bank, they're all involved in it. All of
30:20them. They're racing for tokenization.
30:22They're racing for stable coins and
30:23that's the key thing. But then there's
30:25another argument which is
30:28the connection of agents to crypto makes
30:30sense. Like that's the whole point is
30:32that there's an element of oh this makes
30:35sense. And the reason I'm so emphatic
30:37and pounding the table that this is so
30:38important
30:40>> is and I don't I don't know how to
30:41pronounce Ilia's last name from near
30:44>> but if you go back and listen to an
30:46interview with him in 2023 on a podcast
30:49called No Priors
30:52>> great podcast
30:53>> great podcast and but this was a very
30:55futuristic look of where we are today.
30:57So in 2023 if I said to you okay he did
30:59this interview it was only 6 months
31:01after
31:02Gen AI started chatbt was launched how
31:05could a guy have this much vision on the
31:07agentic world connecting to it literally
31:09that's what near that's what he was
31:11talking about how could he have that
31:12vision because he was one of the
31:14co-authors on the transformer paper that
31:17led to generative AI so there's two
31:19things about that so I'm a logical guy
31:21like I I look at things and go I like
31:23listening to this guy this is great
31:26his value as one of the transformer page
31:29co-authors when AI took over and people
31:32were paying hundreds of millions if not
31:35billions of dollars for humans. You
31:37don't think Ilia got a call and could
31:38have left near and gone there but he
31:40believes in this there there's a lot of
31:43elements for me as like a founder that I
31:44like listening to and getting to know
31:46the people. So I think if people go back
31:48and listen to that, forget investing in
31:50NER. Just go listen to the story and go
31:53listen to someone who believes agents
31:56have to be part of crypto back in so
31:59this was also when crypto was on its way
32:01down everything was breaking down. He
32:04was saying when agents are here that's
32:06when the connection will be. And
32:07literally what he said is they will be
32:09the economic actors of the future. And
32:12so that's why every day that I sit there
32:13I'm like oh I know what's happening now.
32:15And so if I get off the call, and this
32:16happened to me once this week, I'm
32:18meeting someone for breakfast coming up
32:20soon,
32:22has two portfolios, follows me in AI,
32:24he's a subscriber, he's been doing well,
32:26and he's got all these names, but then
32:28at the same point, he's got a lot of
32:30crypto, which he told me about. He's
32:31like, I don't need any more crypto. I
32:33still have stuff from 2021 and 2022. And
32:35that was an interesting thing because I
32:36remember hearing that after the do
32:38bubble. All the people that I knew that
32:39bought a lot of these things, they
32:41didn't put more money into it because
32:42they still had PTSD from what they went
32:44through. I think there's a a period here
32:46where the asset managers are looking to
32:49invest. I think most of what's driving
32:51crypto right now is a combination of new
32:54players coming in. This is what a bull
32:56market is about. And you're right, FOMO
32:58is going to start to kick in very, very
32:59soon. I said before when Bitcoin got
33:01above 82,000, that was the confirmation
33:03of the bull trend. I think we're in
33:05that. The fundamental side's getting
33:07stronger and stronger by the day. I I
33:10think we're at a point where this stuff
33:12is about to kind of take off,
33:13particularly with what happened today
33:15with the unemployment rate being lower
33:17than expected. If you take everything
33:18that happened this week from the rate
33:20picture and you look at it and you're
33:22like, David Zervos brought into the Fed
33:24or brought into the Treasury, he wants
33:27he's he's a very creative guy. Uh we're
33:30going to he's he's being brought in to
33:31help get long-term rates lower. They did
33:34another buyback, another, you know,
33:35treasury uh yield curve, treasury uh
33:39twitch, whatever you want to call it in
33:41terms of the twisting of the back end
33:43versus the front end. We got a lower
33:45than expected PCE core. Now we got an
33:48unemployment number that came in weaker
33:50than expected with an hourly earnings
33:51that came in weaker than expected. So
33:53maybe rates settle here. They don't have
33:55to go down, guys. They just need to not
33:57be a story where every day they go up.
34:00And I think we could be staring at a a
34:01position coming out of the midterms
34:03where people are like, "Why were we
34:04waiting? Earnings are just growing
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35:53>> You ever gone to a high school football
35:54game
35:55>> many times
35:56>> and uh you see the the young men on the
35:58sidelines, fourth quarter comes, they
36:00start holding up the four fingers like
36:02this.
36:02>> Y
36:02>> you don't know this, but the uh the OG
36:04podcast viewers, every fourth quarter we
36:07go like this. You know why?
36:09>> Why?
36:09>> Cuz crypto loves the fourth quarter. It
36:11loves it. Like just like the high school
36:13football team's like, "We win the fourth
36:14quarter." Krypto's like, "We win the
36:16fourth quarter." It's October 3rd. You
36:18know, like you ever seen a bull right
36:20before he stampedes, he kind of digs his
36:22feet into the ground, throws up some
36:24dust. October 3rd. That's what the bulls
36:26do. [laughter]
36:27>> And then it's fourth quarter. Like here
36:29we go. I think it was over the summer
36:31that when it first when we had the seven
36:33sigma move that I reminded both the
36:38audience and you that the viewpoint for
36:40this year was that based on the work
36:42being done by institutional investors
36:46that when we came to the end of the year
36:48something very important happened. So
36:49this will match up with your fourth
36:51quarter thing but I think this one's the
36:52most important. It's for important for
36:54people to hear. This is my mindset.
36:55>> Jord is unbothered. He's just like get
36:57out of here with this fourth quarter
36:58course. Just give us a four.
36:59four year cycle I don't care about and
37:00this I don't care about but I do know
37:02this
37:04>> large allocators and decision makers
37:06make really important decisions for the
37:08following calendar year
37:09>> in the fourth quarter
37:10>> in the fourth quarter and the reason
37:11that's important and particularly in the
37:13final two months
37:16they get paid on performance which
37:18crystallizes sometime around that end of
37:21the you know and into the beginning of
37:23the year
37:24>> oh there's somebody out there they're up
37:25big right now they're selling and
37:26they're not going to touch their
37:27portfolio till December Exactly. And so
37:30if you want to get involved with crypto,
37:32they're doing their homework. The
37:33problem they're running into, I've been
37:34asked this many times. So what can I
37:36buy? And I go, well, you can either buy
37:37buy the, you know, the ETFs or the, you
37:41know, the DATs of the various ones or
37:44maybe there's five companies you public
37:47stocks you can buy.
37:49>> It's really hard, but they want to do
37:51it. So, I think that's where the L1
37:54start to become, you know, a
37:56>> they're not going to drive things, but
37:58they're there's going to be an
37:59underlying bid for these things that
38:01keeps the ecosystem grounded. And that
38:03means that the beta is going to continue
38:05to show up in the altcoins, but the beta
38:07is going to be driven not by the
38:08institutional managers until the
38:11tokenization starts to happen. That's
38:12why tokenization is so important.
38:14>> So, there's two uh two data points that
38:16I will uh I will share. Um, I think back
38:18in May or June, I tweeted much to the uh
38:21uh disappointment of all the AI bulls
38:23and I said it's going to be glorious
38:25when the AI profits rotate back into
38:27Bitcoin and I was trolling a little bit,
38:30but I do believe that, you know, a lot
38:32of the crypto gains went into AI, people
38:35continue, you got the momentum and now
38:36you're going to kind of see this
38:37rotation back. Um, it does feel like
38:39that's starting to happen a little bit.
38:41To your point, I don't think that the
38:42interest in AI is going away. I just
38:43think that people are becoming a little
38:44bit more interested in Bitcoin and
38:46crypto. So now you kind of have these
38:47two technologies.
38:48>> The second thing, uh, I am shocked right
38:52now. I believe Sylvia is the only public
38:55company that has AI and Bitcoin kind of
38:57married together. It's a it's a little
38:58bit of a weird way that we've done it.
38:59>> Y,
39:00>> I am very very shocked that maybe the
39:03only ones you could assign to are like a
39:05Coinbase or like a Robin Hood who have
39:07like crypto products and then they're
39:08like using AI, you know, in some form or
39:10fashion. But I feel like this is
39:14becoming somewhat of a more consensus
39:15view that these two technologies are
39:16going to benefit from each other and
39:18it's going to be there. One of my
39:19predictions for 2027 is you're going to
39:22start to see an assault of public
39:24markets where people they may be an AI,
39:26you know, related business. They're
39:27going to start trying to do crypto
39:28stuff. Crypto will do more AI.
39:30>> And so I think what investors are going
39:31to have to try to figure out is like
39:33where does the value acrew, right? So if
39:36you look at take maybe Coinbase and
39:37Robin Hood, Coinbase came from the
39:39crypto world, Robin Hood comes from the
39:40brokerage world. they kind of have ended
39:41up in this like, you know, war over
39:43who's going to be like the everything
39:44exchange. Both great businesses. I think
39:46both will do very well going forward,
39:49but they have kind of like the DNA of
39:51the company is a little bit different.
39:53And so if you were like, hey, I want to
39:54be more like 7030 crypto to AI, you
39:56probably would go and buy a Coinbase. If
39:58you want to be like 7030, you know,
40:00equities, then or AI, you'd go to like
40:02more Robin Hood.
40:04>> That I think is actually much harder for
40:06people to navigate. Again, going back to
40:07this like all the easy money's gone.
40:09>> Yep. If you're an institutional
40:11allocator and you're like, "Okay, cool.
40:12I believe in everything Jord's saying.
40:15Where do I go put my money,
40:17>> you're now almost getting like the the
40:18more intricate decisions?" And so, one,
40:21I think that uh similar to how we talked
40:22about like lawyers, advice will become
40:24more valuable than the action of just
40:25like filling out the documents.
40:27>> Your philosophy is going to become
40:31consensus. And now it is going to become
40:33much more about like what are the
40:35specific names? How do I think about
40:36portfolio construction? How do I think
40:38about onetime purchase versus dollar
40:39cost averaging? I mean, like very
40:41specific, you know, kind of tactical
40:42things.
40:44>> This is where uh so I'm and you and I
40:48haven't talked about this, but I'll I'll
40:49I'll bring in. So, because I have
40:52subscribers that want to invest in the
40:5546 name index that I created, they want
40:58to
40:58>> around tokenization.
40:59>> Yeah. Well, it Yeah. Around it's really
41:01the crypto ecosystem. So, this is
41:03really, hey, agents are going to do
41:05things. Okay. This is the entire
41:06ecosystem that should benefit. And
41:09rather than you go out and pick five
41:11tokens, I think the beauty of the way I
41:15put it together is equal weight. It's
41:17got the L1's and then it's got a bunch
41:19of L2s, 46 names. Just uh you're not
41:22allowed to say this, but I have a uh
41:24report here. Um let me look to make sure
41:27I got this right. The Visceral Labs 46
41:29name index, which by the way, we got to
41:30get you a better name. [laughter] Visor
41:33Labs.
41:34It's like uh you know for for whatever
41:36people say about Trump good or bad the
41:37guy's good at branding and super
41:38intelligence probably is a better name.
41:40The Visser Labs 46 name index is up year
41:42to date 50%. Bitcoin is down 3.2% as of
41:46the close yesterday.
41:48>> So that I think gives a a pretty clear
41:50this is outperforming Bitcoin as a
41:52benchmark.
41:53>> And if you would have looked the prior
41:55year or you know when Bitcoin peaked,
41:57Bitcoin was outperforming and all of the
41:59altcoins were were underperforming.
42:01That's what makes this so important. It
42:02ties it back to AI. What I was going to
42:04say is I'm reaching out now to asset
42:05managers. So, anyone out there who's
42:08doing anything. I ran ETFs
42:11>> if you breathe.
42:13>> I ran ETFs at Morgan Stanley. I traded
42:15programs. I traded derivatives. The
42:18future is to give both individual
42:21investors and asset managers what
42:23they're going to be able to do within a
42:25year, which is some kind of tokenized
42:26way to do this agentically. This
42:28compares So, I'm going to set this up
42:31myself. I'm going to do this. Um, I'm
42:34also going to connect to API keys to be
42:36able to do the research on crypto. At
42:38this point, you should be able to turn
42:41everything into an investment dashboard
42:44that has the 46 name index. You trade it
42:46with a push of a button with agents. I'm
42:49going to do that on my own and I'm going
42:50to set it up. And I don't know if Robin
42:52Hood can do it yet. I don't know if
42:53Coinbase can do it yet. But anyone else
42:55out there, um, I reached out to Bill
42:57Barte. I'm I'm reaching out. anyone
42:59wants to come to me and work with me on
43:01this. I don't want to launch an ETF, but
43:03I do want my subscribers to have the
43:05ability of investing that way because
43:07that's the way the future is going to
43:08be. An agent can go out and do all 46
43:11names, equal weight the whole thing, and
43:12then you have it done within seconds.
43:15We're at that point where it should be
43:16able to get done. The only nuance is
43:18there's 42
43:20tokens and then there's four public
43:21stocks. So, in the world of the merging
43:24of tokenization,
43:25it's a race to see who can handle Jord's
43:27portfolio first. [snorts]
43:30>> Um, I like this idea. I do think this is
43:32where the world is going. Uh, I do not
43:34think it will happen as fast as everyone
43:36claims it will. And um I will uh
43:39introduce you to uh a couple lawyers uh
43:41because as we've gone down this path um
43:45>> there are a lot of very antiquated rules
43:50around how they will empower this to
43:52happen.
43:53>> And so uh I'm an investor in a company
43:55called Autopilot. They do something
43:57similar different but but similar. I
43:58think they've done a great job. Um you
44:00now are seeing the agentic trading e
44:02Toro, Robin Hood, Coinbase like they're
44:04all going into that. Um, public has this
44:08like describe something and it will then
44:10create an index for you kind of a custom
44:13index. Um, I think maybe you can kind of
44:15trade off of it um in the product. Super
44:19take we we recently talked about in
44:20terms of like you know I think snow's
44:22going to snow a lot in the mountain like
44:24how do I invest along that theme? Like
44:25this is definitely where the world is
44:26headed.
44:28>> What I think is maybe most interesting
44:30is twofold. Creating it and putting it
44:33on easy. how do people sell or rotate or
44:38that type of stuff I think is we just
44:40need to figure it out. I don't think
44:41people have really spent a lot of time
44:42there.
44:42>> And then the second thing is um the
44:46rules have to catch up with this type of
44:48investing because the rules are frankly
44:51situated for ETFs, mutual funds, like
44:53that stuff. This is the future.
44:56But like if I said to you, hey, you got
44:58to go become an RA to do this. You
44:59probably would be like, eh, I'm not
45:01interested. I don't know if you have to,
45:02right? But the platforms for sure, if
45:05they're going to empower this stuff,
45:06there are legal things that they need to
45:08do. We're entering a weird world where
45:11like if the agents are doing the
45:13trading, like are the agents regulated?
45:16You know, one of the things I've always
45:17talked about is uh in crypto back in the
45:19day, uh there's certain things that
45:22exchanges have to file with the SEC.
45:25Well, if it's decentralized,
45:28how does it file? And then like also how
45:30do you enforce the rules? So
45:31decentralization for exchanges is an
45:33interesting thing because regulators
45:34weren't like you're not even trying to
45:36be malicious just like how do we
45:38interface with each other.
45:40I think this is now coming in a weird
45:42way. What you're talking about is almost
45:43like a decentralized ETF.
45:45How do how does the regulators how do
45:47the rules interface?
45:49>> I don't think they have an answer yet.
45:50They're they're trying to figure it out
45:51but they don't have an answer.
45:52>> So here's what's going to happen a year
45:54from now. And I keep saying a year from
45:55now because my mindset is that we are at
45:57the micron moment as I call it where
45:59people just underestimate how fast this
46:01stuff goes. And if I'm right, uh,
46:06every wealth advisor,
46:09every uh, wealth management firm is
46:12going to be in a very very difficult
46:14position a year from now.
46:16their clients are going to start hearing
46:18about how people are making a lot of
46:20money in crypto and they're going to
46:22hear crypto and rather than crypto I
46:25want everyone to just think they're
46:27making money in tokens
46:29well stocks are going to be tokenized
46:31for sure now will they be the same way
46:35there's going to be a merging here but
46:36if people go well I I heard you know I
46:39heard Joe and Mary just made 30 times
46:41their money over here this is the weird
46:42part about if I'm right about what's
46:45happening and you have to Go back to the
46:46Micron example. Never in my time have I
46:50seen what I saw with my agentic
46:52portfolio infrastructure, which is I
46:54thought Micron would double. I thought
46:56it might triple 14 times. Now that was
46:59totally based on the earnings growth.
47:02>> I see the crypto volumes, the token
47:04volumes going through the roof because
47:05of tokenization and because of stable
47:08coin payments,
47:09>> because of AI agents. If it wasn't for
47:12agents, which will speed this process up
47:13to make it easier, I wouldn't be as
47:15optimistic on it. So, it started now and
47:19I think everyone listening who watches
47:21us regularly of which we have a goodiz
47:22audience. This is a problem you want to
47:25be ahead of both as an in personal
47:27investor, you want to start doing your
47:29research. This weekend when I go
47:30through, I will do another video on
47:31crypto plus my regular weekly video. I
47:34am going to highlight seven separate
47:37podcasts. I not only spoke to Ilyia at
47:39near I spoke to William Mgayar who
47:41you've had on he was amazing brilliant
47:44brilliant guy he's got a new book coming
47:46out it's going to take another 3 to 6
47:48months I think for his book to come out
47:49you have to be on top of these guys
47:50Joseph Chalam or Shalom who was at
47:53BlackRock
47:54>> all over it
47:56they're all over it and they're telling
47:57you why to invest in it and they're
47:59telling you why this moment matters now
48:01and a lot of it has to do with the
48:02regulatory side but most of it has to do
48:04with the three of them saw this vision a
48:07long time ago playing out and they're
48:09all respectable people with different
48:11backgrounds. One traditional Wall
48:13Street, one Napster, one uh uh Google.
48:16Seriously, I mean, when I get a
48:18diversity of people that are very, very
48:20bright, and I'm going to be putting six
48:22podcasts from the three of them up this
48:24weekend, you got to go watch this stuff
48:26and be on top of it. Ladies and
48:28gentlemen, that's it. I appreciate all
48:29of you guys watching. We got a lot of
48:31new people who've been watching this
48:32lately. We appreciate you. Make sure you
48:33subscribe to the channel, tell your
48:34friends, text us to somebody, leave a
48:36funny comment for Jordy. The funniest
48:38ones to actually screenshot and send to
48:39him sometimes. It makes him laugh, think
48:41that we're all smart over here. Uh, make
48:43sure you go to YouTube, check out Jordy
48:45Visser. Just type in Jordy Visser. Jordy
48:47with an I. And hit subscribe there.
48:49That's the digital thank you to him
48:50doing such a great job every single
48:51week. And then go and check out Sylvia.
48:53Go to sylvia.com. Silvia.com if you want
48:56to use AI to better manage your finances
48:58and your portfolio. We've got a very
49:00interesting announcement coming out on
49:02Monday. Just a little alpha for all of
49:03you.

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