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Iran War Expert: "The 8 Weeks After Midterms Could Be The Most Dangerous!" | Prof Robert Pape — Transcript

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0:00We are about to enter the eight most
0:02dangerous weeks in our lives cuz the US
0:06midterms [music] will determine the fate
0:08of President Trump's administration. And
0:11the most dangerous time is the
0:13transition of power. And we saw this
0:15with January 6. And so what happens in
0:18this transition period could also easily
0:21dovetail in the Iran war because
0:23President Trump has promised over and
0:26over again that he will escalate after
0:29the elections. Well, now we're after the
0:31elections. So, let me show you what's
0:32really going to happen. But first, I've
0:34studied political violence around the
0:36world for 30 years and I've advised
0:38every White House since 9/11. What What
0:40do you think's going to happen then over
0:42these eight weeks?
0:42>> So, let's start with the beginning. Will
0:45President Trump accept [music] the
0:47election results, but also a plan that's
0:50on his desk is a plan to hit targets
0:53[music] in Iran over a 3-day period. And
0:55as the Iran war is escalating, now we
0:59have the issue of this is a likely
1:01possible time when Putin is going to
1:04start to realize he [music] can't get
1:06Ukrainian territory from Trump. So, he
1:08moves to his next plan. And I'll show
1:11you what that might look like. What
1:12happens next? There's going to be
1:14enormous pressure on Europe to
1:16retaliate. And when Europe does that,
1:18that's what World War II looks like.
1:20President Trump will be able to start
1:22declaring [music] more and more
1:23emergency powers. And this will lead
1:26into a devastating 2027. What can we do?
1:30And what [music] about the general
1:31public? Do you think we should be
1:32stockpiling? Number one, incredibly
1:35important, which is
1:39before this episode starts, I have a
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1:59enjoy this episode. [music]
2:02>> [singing]
2:04>> Robert Payne, every time I speak to you,
2:06I feel like I start with the same
2:08question, but it is the question that is
2:10front of mind for me, which is what the
2:13hell is going on in the world at the
2:14moment? What's going on is we are
2:17getting deeper and deeper into an
2:19escalation trap and we are moving up
2:22rungs in escalation where risk is
2:25growing and we are about to enter the
2:28eight most dangerous weeks since this
2:31war began and they may become the eight
2:34most dangerous weeks in our lives. We
2:36are going to see the coming together of
2:40three fundamentally dangerous issues.
2:45We're about to see the US midterms where
2:49the voting has now stopped. But we are
2:52now in the process of counting the vote,
2:56certifying the vote and in two months
3:00and it will take two months seeding the
3:02victors. That's the transfer of power.
3:05Where the real danger zone of political
3:10violence, what I call violent populism
3:13is starting now. It began the moment the
3:18voting stopped and the counting began
3:21because that's the transfer of power.
3:25>> Okay, so most of my audiences around the
3:27world probably won't know, including
3:28myself, what a midterm is
3:30>> in the presidential system. In the
3:33United States, we have four-year terms
3:36for our US presidents. Then for our
3:40Congress, we hold an election every two
3:43years.
3:44>> And we have two houses in our Congress.
3:48Sometimes it uh dovetales with the
3:51election of the president, in which case
3:52we just call it the general election.
3:55But when the president is not up for
3:57reelection, we call it a midterm,
4:00meaning midterm of the president's term.
4:02>> So, let me explain this to you, and you
4:04tell me if I've got this. There is this
4:07House of Representatives, and then
4:08there's the Senate.
4:09>> That's right.
4:10>> And both of them work to vote laws into
4:13power.
4:14>> That's right.
4:15>> And as we stand here right now, the
4:16Republicans, Trump's party, has a
4:19majority in both. So, it's quite easy
4:22for them to pass new laws. What you're
4:25saying is in these midterms that are
4:26coming up, there's a prospect that Trump
4:29might lose his power in the Senate and
4:32in the House, which would mean he
4:34wouldn't be able to get his laws passed
4:36very easily. It's not just about passing
4:38laws, Stephen. It's about a system of
4:41check and balance. The way the
4:43constitution was set up is that the
4:46congress and the president and then also
4:49the supreme court which does which is
4:51not an elected body they check each
4:53other. So what's supposed to moderate
4:57the policies in the United States where
5:00we don't go to the extremes is when
5:04different parties control the congress
5:08and the president. When you have the
5:11same party controlling both houses of
5:14Congress and the president, by
5:16definition, there's very little check
5:18and balance on the president. The
5:20president can pretty much do what the
5:22president wants, especially in
5:24international affairs, but also very
5:26heavily in domestic. That's why the
5:28president's power is going to be
5:31severely checked if Republicans no
5:35longer control the House and the Senate.
5:38So why is this the eight most dangerous
5:40weeks in your history?
5:41>> It's the eight most dangerous weeks
5:43because political violence uh especially
5:47in the era of violent populism when tens
5:50of millions of Americans support
5:52political violence on both sides of the
5:54aisle. The most dangerous time is the
5:58transition of power. And we saw this 6
6:02years ago with January 6. It's important
6:05to remember that in November 2020,
6:08President Biden was elected. However,
6:12that did not prevent President Trump
6:15from taking steps to prevent that
6:18transfer of power. We saw it come to a
6:21head on January 6th, and that occurred
6:23over a two-month process. It was when
6:26the voting stopped and the counting
6:28began and then the certification of the
6:32votes began and then the transfer of
6:34power. That was the most dangerous
6:37moment that we have seen in American
6:40domestic politics since the civil war.
6:44We are heading to a very similar
6:46situation again and it's worse now.
6:50>> How do you know? For 30 years, I've
6:53studied political violence around the
6:55world. But for the last 5 years,
6:57Stephen, I have devoted myself to
7:01understanding what's happened in the
7:04United States. We are seeing a
7:07transition of power in the context of
7:11literally
7:13this fact.
7:15>> What does that fact say? That fact is
7:17that today,
7:20as of a month ago,
7:23over 40 million Americans support the
7:28use of the US military to suppress
7:32Democratic protesters against the Trump
7:35agenda. Think of this as 40 million
7:37Americans who support political violence
7:41for Trump and 60 million Americans, over
7:4560 million, support the use of force to
7:49prevent Trump from being president. I've
7:52been doing these national representative
7:55surveys for 5 years. These numbers are
7:58double what they were in September 2024,
8:04two years ago. And two years ago, you'll
8:06recall, we had multiple assassination
8:09attempts against President Trump. You
8:11remember a year ago, we had the
8:13assassination of Charlie Kirk. So these
8:17numbers are worse than that. And we are
8:21coming into the most volatile election
8:25in our lifetimes really because this
8:28really will determine the fate of
8:32President Trump's administration for the
8:35final two years. If it turns out that at
8:38the end of these two months that the
8:41Democrats control one or especially if
8:45they control both the House and the
8:47Senate, this is going to mean the
8:51virtual political destruction of the
8:55Trump presidency. the Democrats in
8:58control of both houses of Congress. They
9:01will not only have the power of
9:03subpoenas to be able to compel on
9:06penalty of going to jail and prison uh
9:10testimony from members of the Trump
9:13administration. They will have the power
9:15of impeachment. And it's not just
9:18impeaching President Trump. It's
9:20impeaching the members of his cabinet.
9:23Think Secretary Hegsth.
9:26think the attorney general, think uh the
9:29Department of Homeland Security
9:31Secretary. And if in fact they also
9:34control the Senate, now with just a few
9:37more Republican votes, and there are
9:39many disgruntled Republicans already and
9:42many Republicans that have moved away
9:44from President Trump in recent months,
9:47they have the possibility of literally
9:49removing them from office. That would
9:53create a spiral down. There's no
9:57political bottom there, Stephen. This is
10:00not like, oh, it's just once you get rid
10:03of one cabinet secretary, everybody
10:05calms down. What we are witnessing is a
10:10true watershed period for the uh
10:15political power of President Trump. And
10:18that means also the power of the MAGA
10:20agenda whether or not there will be mass
10:24deportations in the country. How would
10:26that be impacted by the midterms
10:28>> if starting in January there are months
10:31and months of turmoil in the Trump
10:34administration where literally the heads
10:37of the cabinet offices including the
10:40Department of Homeland Security are on
10:43the block to be removed. the idea that
10:46you're going to have consistent um
10:49operations within the departments very
10:53very very difficult. Stephen,
10:54>> what do you think is going to happen
10:56then over these eight weeks?
10:57>> It starts with the midterms. It starts
10:59with the issue of violent populism. It
11:04starts with the issue of the
11:06consequences of President Trump's
11:09presidency. But it doesn't stop there
11:12because you see this is not happening in
11:15isolation. It's happening during the
11:18Iran war. And so what happens in this
11:21midterm transition period could also
11:25easily dovetail with more escalation in
11:28the Iran war. And in fact, President
11:30Trump has promised over and over and
11:33over again that he will escalate after
11:36the uh elections. Well, now we're p now
11:39we're after the elections. And at the
11:41same time, as if that was not dangerous
11:44enough, we have a third issue, which is
11:48that President Putin and Russia is
11:51threatening to escalate strongly
11:55against civilian infrastructure in
11:58Ukraine to target electric power in Kev,
12:04in Carke, and in Odessa in a dramatic
12:08way. I thought they were doing a deal.
12:10>> President Putin has done nothing to say
12:14that this is off the table and there's
12:18uh every sign and in fact growing signs
12:22by European governments that they are
12:24extremely worried about what's coming in
12:27the Ukraine war that there will be as
12:29the phrasing is now called a dark winter
12:33in Ukraine.
12:35>> So these are eight weeks.
12:36>> Yes. talk me through them week by week.
12:39Let's start with the beginning which is
12:43the election results. And now the
12:47question is, will President Trump accept
12:51the election results? Or if they
12:54ultimately go against the Democrats,
12:57will the Democrats
12:59who are built up this giant set of
13:01hopes, expectations
13:04of victory, would they accept not taking
13:07control of Congress? This is really step
13:11one. And this is coming right on the
13:15heels of another step. President Trump
13:20has promised that the United States and
13:22Israel will conduct strikes against
13:27Iran, heavy strikes right after the
13:30midterms.
13:31>> When did he say that? I was looking for
13:33his quotes on this and he he seems to be
13:35pretty cryptic in saying that
13:37>> um Trump described it as decision time,
13:39stating he faces a choice between
13:40reaching a deal or taking action to
13:42finish them off.
13:44>> Yes.
13:44>> And asked directly by reporters whether
13:46strikes would resume, he remarked that
13:47anything is possible and declined to
13:49take options off the table. as he is um
13:52putting on the table the distinct
13:55possibility of him deciding to do these
13:59strikes, he's taking serious steps with
14:02his administration to literally prepare
14:05for the strikes. Step number one, that's
14:08that's a costly step is to remove
14:12embassy personnel, the families of the
14:16embassy from the region. This has
14:18happened in Saudi Arabia. This has
14:21happened in multiple of the frontline
14:22Gulf states. The second big thing that's
14:25happened is he has asked the military
14:27for a detailed set of attack plans.
14:31These detailed plans, we have the leaks
14:33of them. Um he has not just had the
14:37plans drawn up but he's given the orders
14:39for sentcom that within maximum 96 hours
14:44of his go code they are to execute the
14:48plan.
14:48>> So you I've got your book here bombing
14:50to win air power and coercion in war and
14:52you actually spent a long time modeling
14:54what would happen if the US decided to
14:56bomb Iran before they did.
14:57>> That's right. 20 years
14:58>> and what you said to me in these
15:00previous conversations we've had has
15:01played out in a really, you know, very
15:04interesting but very accurate way. Um,
15:05actually when we first met and you first
15:07told me about this idea of an escalation
15:09trap and that the US might be stuck. I
15:12didn't really understand that idea like
15:14the US military is so big. Of course,
15:16they would just go in there and they
15:17would win. Um, but you were right. And
15:21so I ask you now we're now, you know, I
15:23don't know, five, six months into the
15:24war.
15:26What is what is going how does this end?
15:29>> An escalation trap, Stephen, is when a
15:33strong country like the United States
15:35and Israel attacks a weaker country and
15:38they have tactical success. The bombs
15:40hit targets, the bombs kill leaders, but
15:43the weaker country gains power. And in
15:47this case that happened almost
15:48immediately as Iran gained heavy control
15:53of the straight of form and with it
15:55heavy control of 20% of the world's oil.
15:59>> What happens next?
16:00>> What happens next is humiliation
16:03for this the side that started that
16:06attack. Uh, this might be a good time,
16:09Stephen, to let me explain what a lot of
16:12people think is strategy.
16:15And a lot of people think that what
16:18strategy is, Stephen, is a chess game.
16:22But let's play that out and show you
16:23what the escalation trap looks like in a
16:25chess game. So, this is white and white
16:29plays an opening move.
16:30>> Is that America in this analogy?
16:33>> This is America. This is President
16:34Trump. White plays an opening move and
16:37red then makes a move. And what does
16:39white do? Takes a pawn. Now it looks
16:43like white is ahead. Now red makes
16:46another move. And let's just say red
16:48brings out a knight. Of course
16:50threatening the pawn. And now white
16:54makes another move putting the bishop
16:56here thinking threatening the queen. But
17:00as we know in chess, the queen, the red
17:03queen can now just simply take the
17:06bishop.
17:08The opening has opened. There was an
17:11initial gain, but what happened very
17:13quickly is red is now more powerful than
17:19it was before. At this point in a chess
17:22game, Stephen, what happens is white
17:25offers red a draw. Trump and Israel
17:29started this. Iran got ahead and so
17:32everybody's been saying for months and
17:34months and months, President Trump, just
17:36take a deal. Well, that would make
17:38perfect sense if what we were doing is
17:40we were playing a chess game.
17:43International politics, especially when
17:45a strong power is ahead, is not a chess
17:47game. Let me explain what I mean by
17:49that. A better analogy for international
17:52politics is roulette.
17:55You see what happens in a game of
17:58roulette, and anybody who's been to the
18:00casino will will know this. You can go
18:03and you see that, oh my goodness
18:05gracious, the odds of me winning here if
18:07I bet on a number, they're not very
18:09good. But the odds, if I just decide I'm
18:12going to bet on say red, I'm just going
18:15to put a bet down. And what happens is,
18:18um, it's not quite 50/50. the house
18:20still has an advantage, but nonetheless,
18:22a lot of roulette players think, "Well,
18:24I'm going to start out there." Well,
18:26what happens, Stephen, when they lose.
18:29Now, you're the house. You've just won
18:31there. Now, what happens is a lot of
18:34gamblers will suddenly dig in deeper.
18:38I'm going to double down, or in this
18:39case, I'm even more than doubling down,
18:41and I'm going to bet even more on red
18:44because since I lost on red before,
18:47surely it'll come up red again. But now
18:50the h the wheel spins and guess what
18:52happens? It comes up black again. Now
18:55the house has taken even more chips. Now
18:59I'm way behind. And you know what I also
19:02did here? And a lot of gamblers do that.
19:04They made a deal with a bookie and they
19:06said, "You know what? Let me borrow some
19:08of them chips here cuz I'm going to get
19:10it back." And what are they going to do?
19:13They're going to bet an even bigger pile
19:16of chips. They're going to bet all those
19:19chips on red 36 because see now the odds
19:22are riskier. But if they win, and again,
19:26they're betting on red. They're hoping
19:27they're finally their numbers finally
19:29come and do, they're going to make back
19:31the money they lost and even more money.
19:34At each rung, President Trump has uh has
19:36made a bet. He's bet that if he attacks
19:40uh the Supreme Leader, kills the Supreme
19:42Leader, this will weaken Iran. It didn't
19:45work. He lost the chips. So he bet on a
19:47six week air campaign and then he
19:49thought okay well I'm going to increase
19:51I'm going to go not just for two or
19:52three days of bombing I'm going to go
19:53for 6 weeks of bombing he lost on red
19:56again.
19:56>> How did he lose that?
19:58>> Because Iran did not concede and kept
20:00control of the straight of form moves.
20:02That is what is wrecking and putting the
20:06gas prices up high. So as time has gone
20:09on it's literally the chips that he is
20:13risking here are American gas prices.
20:15And so in American lives
20:17>> in American lives and American interest
20:20rates, all of that is the equivalent of
20:23the chips that we are losing. But now
20:26he's bet again on the blockade. And
20:29guess what? It's been six solid months,
20:31Stephen. And he's lost again because
20:36what's happened after 6 months? Iran has
20:38not caved. It's not collapsed. Those gas
20:41prices are going up. This is why he's in
20:44so much pressure in the midterm. But it
20:46gets worse than that. So now Stephen,
20:49he's lost again. Take these. Now you're
20:51the house. You've got all those chips.
20:54Now he's way behind.
20:57And he's got a deadline because in the
21:00gamblers's deadline, all these chips
21:02that I've just been playing with, I've
21:05borrowed them. I borrowed them from the
21:07bookies.
21:08>> Are you saying that he's borrowed the
21:10chips from somewhere? He's borrowing um
21:13uh the chips and in this case the chips
21:16are the political support of his party
21:19MAGA and the control of the party in
21:22order to win back everything because
21:25come January 3rd there's going to be a
21:29new Congress. That's the equivalent of
21:32the bookies wanting all those chips back
21:35in your hand. So you're saying with with
21:37this last bet that he's making because
21:40he started the war in Iran,
21:41>> that's right.
21:42>> Sentiment towards the Republicans and
21:44Trump has gone down.
21:46>> Hugely down. Lost all those chips in
21:48your hand.
21:48>> And now senators and Congress people are
21:52going to potentially lose their jobs on
21:54the Republican side to Democrats.
21:55>> That's right. They're going to lose
21:56their jobs. And as they lose their jobs,
22:00um they're not going to want to support
22:02him in the future. They're pulling. They
22:05will pull away from him more and more
22:07and more.
22:08>> Why doesn't he just He's got two years
22:10then. Is it not conceivable that he just
22:12decides to relax for 2 years? Okay. I
22:16can't get laws passed and I can't get
22:17things done. But, you know, I could just
22:19I'll chill at the White House.
22:20>> Yes. So, there's two big problems with
22:23that idea, Stephen. Um problem number
22:26one is um presidents don't just abandon
22:29their party, their agenda, and their
22:32legacy. We see this not just with
22:34President Trump and MAGA, but we saw
22:36this with Lynden Johnson in the Vietnam
22:39War. Lyndon Johnson went through a very
22:41similar game of roulette where he kept
22:44doubling down as each rung of the
22:46escalation ladder cost him more and more
22:49support. As the American people were
22:51turning against the war, he kept going
22:53up the ladder,
22:54>> chasing his losses. He's chasing his
22:56losses, hoping even though each risk is
22:59riskier, each bet is riskier, he sees it
23:02as the only way to dig out of this doom
23:07loop that he that he is in. And there
23:09are deadlines. The equivalent of the
23:11bookie wanting their money back in two
23:14weeks is the election. And it's not just
23:16the day of the election, it's the
23:18elections mean transfer of power where
23:21the whole legacy comes unglued. And the
23:24legacy of the losing president is the
23:28worst of all. And so this would mean
23:30President Trump, when you say, shouldn't
23:32he just go to St. Andrews to play golf?
23:34He becomes Jimmy Carter and Lynden
23:38Johnson combined, the worst president
23:41that we've ever had in in anything like
23:44any of our lifetimes. This is a huge
23:47problem for any president to just simply
23:50absorb.
23:51>> So that was the first point. The second
23:52point is the crypto. So, President Trump
23:56has made enormous uh money for himself
24:00and his family on various investments
24:03and a lot of it is in crypto and crypto
24:06is ultimate confidence investment.
24:11So that what you have with crypto, the
24:13final gold piece here is this can go up
24:18poof [sighs]
24:19when President Trump's power goes up. So
24:22the problem with crypto and his money in
24:25crypto is that this is heavily dependent
24:30on President Trump's power. And when
24:33President Trump's power goes poof, a lot
24:37of crypto, not all of it, but a lot of
24:39it will go poof. And that will be true
24:41not just for him personally, he's 80
24:43years old, but for his family, for his
24:46friends, those people that have made uh
24:49enormous fortunes on this. So when when
24:52President Trump looks at this, this
24:53isn't just ego um humiliation. This is
24:58massive
25:00loss in history and this is also massive
25:05personal financial loss for his family.
25:08his family are quite involved in the
25:10gambling laws and prediction markets in
25:11the United States as well. I think his
25:12son is actually on the board of two of
25:14the big prediction market companies and
25:16as they sort of like held back the laws
25:18and regulations so that prediction
25:20markets can exist. So I I understand it
25:22from that perspective as well that they
25:24do have financial interests that could
25:25be at risk.
25:26>> And what happens with the gambler here?
25:29They keep going until what? They lose it
25:32all.
25:33>> So what happens?
25:34>> So they lose it all
25:35>> in Iran. So let's go back to the board
25:38now that we understand the escalation
25:41trap that President Trump is in. What we
25:44can see is there's reality to why he
25:48wants to escalate and double down again
25:51because he is looking for a way to turn
25:55around this pessimistic view of
25:58President Trump as he can't win the war.
26:02This is now critical because if he
26:06doesn't find a way to hold on to the
26:09final set of chips of MAGA support which
26:12depends on him being the winner, he's
26:15going to lose those chips going forward.
26:19So this is the big pressure, the
26:22pressure I call the pressure of
26:23humiliation for the loser to keep
26:27doubling down. And this is why this step
26:31is a serious is a serious risk as we go
26:34forward. He hasn't given the go code yet
26:37to actually strike Iran. and we're going
26:40to play out the rest of this because
26:42once we see where this could all head,
26:46it's important to understand that I've
26:49advised every White House since 9/11 and
26:52I've seen that in the White Houses, even
26:55though there are heavy commitments to
26:57policies, until the final go order is
27:01given, it is possible to reverse course.
27:04>> I'm pretty sure he's learned that now
27:05that just dropping more bombs doesn't
27:07work. This is the mistake that many
27:09folks are making in the media because
27:12they have become gone from being uh
27:14white belts to green belts with their
27:16strategy, but they haven't gone to brown
27:18belt and and black belt. So, the leaks
27:21that are coming out about the 3-day plan
27:24are uh consistent. The 3-day plan is uh
27:28President Trump is describing here. The
27:31plan that's on his desk is a plan to hit
27:35targets in Iran over a 3-day period. And
27:38as soon as the media, I believe, saw the
27:40word three in the 3-day, now this can't
27:44be anything. This must be a truly minor
27:46issue. But what we're talking about in
27:50the target sets that are coming out are
27:53a whole new level of leadership
27:56targeting,
27:58a level of economic targeting, hitting
28:00refineries, economic power and bridges.
28:04And this looks to me an an awful lot
28:08like what was instant thunder. the
28:123-day, it was supposed to only be a
28:14three-day plan that opened the war
28:18against Iraq in 1991
28:20that was targeting 84 leadership and
28:25infrastructure targets where it was
28:28meant to paralyze Sodom Hussein's
28:31regime. This is exactly the air campaign
28:37that has been at the heart of many um
28:41air strategists since the 1991 war. This
28:45is when I am debating air strategy. I am
28:48literally debating the uh people who
28:52come up with that plan originally and
28:54are still pushing that plan. It says,
28:56"The 3-day plan is a Pentagon military
28:58contingency for a rapid, highintensity
29:01aerial campaign against Iran if
29:03post-election negotiations break down,
29:06presumably the midterm elections. It is
29:08designed to hit missile sites, drone
29:10launch hubs, IRGC command centers, and
29:13energy infrastructure over 72 hours to
29:15force capitulation without triggering a
29:18prolonged ground war." Trump paused
29:20major strikes until after the November
29:223rd midterms, but he has explicitly
29:25characterized the post-election window
29:27as a final choice to either strike a
29:29diplomatic deal with him or initiate
29:31these strikes to finish it off.
29:34>> That's right. This is much more than the
29:37word three days would communicate. What
29:40you just read there is exactly the full
29:44set of instant thunder uh target sets.
29:48if if he does this three-day plan thing,
29:51is does it fail? And if it fails,
29:54>> it fails. And then what happens is we go
29:56to stage three,
29:58>> which is a three-day bombing campaign
30:01becomes a much longer bombing campaign.
30:04So the 3-day bombing campaign drags on,
30:07Stephen. This is exactly what happened
30:10>> with Instant Thunder. It was planned as
30:13three days with an extra three days of
30:15backup strikes, but it went on for 43
30:18days, never did succeed in paralyzing
30:22the military of Iraq.
30:23>> And the hope here, the success, as far
30:26as Trump would see it, would be that
30:27they come to the table to make a deal to
30:29reopen the straight of Hmuz and to vouch
30:31never to have nuclear weapons.
30:32>> Uh, no, not only that. That's part of
30:35the deal, Desi. Once you do this,
30:37there's nobody to come to the table. You
30:40are destroying. so much of the
30:42leadership
30:44stratum
30:45that the idea of coming to the table. We
30:49President Trump has occasionally said
30:51he's not sure who to negotiate with.
30:53Now, once you're in day six or seven of
30:56this, you're really not going to know
30:58who to negotiate with because this is
31:01the the whole point of this plan,
31:04Stephen, is to paralyze the government
31:06so it cannot function. Their goal of the
31:10plan is not to tilt the balance of hawks
31:14and doves inside of the government the
31:17way a lot of people again who just kind
31:19of generally know about bombing but
31:22don't know the full details of the way
31:23the strategies work. This is a plan
31:26Stephen that is meant to completely
31:29paralyze the body of the military.
31:34And then the problem here is because
31:37you've paralyzed it, who are you going
31:40to negotiate with? No, that's not likely
31:44the next set of steps. You see, once you
31:46do this now,
31:49if you haven't fully paralyzed the
31:52military,
31:53and that's what I'm telling you is very
31:55likely, what's going to happen is the
31:58Iranian military that is left, and
32:01there's going to be quite a bit of it
32:02left with a lot of power to strike back,
32:06they're going to start lashing back, and
32:09they can lash back in a whole variety of
32:12ways, including attacks against airports
32:15in the region. This is the real this is
32:19the time when Sodom Hussein after we did
32:21this this is when he bombed sites in
32:25Riad. So this is when his personnel were
32:28killed in Riad. And in fact we could
32:30never stop the Scud missiles of Iraq.
32:34And so what happened is so we've seen
32:36the breaking of this threshold. This is
32:38why this is credible. It's because we've
32:41seen the beginning of this with Iran's
32:44ally, the Houthis, which is the group in
32:46Yemen. So what happened is as the
32:50escalation between Saudi Arabia and the
32:54group in Yemen called the Houthis was
32:56escalating, the Houthis directly with
33:01missiles struck terminals three and
33:04terminals four on separate days in the
33:07Riad International Airport. killing over
33:10a dozen people and wounding over 300
33:14people. And this is the first time in
33:18this war we saw the direct targeting of
33:21civilians, intentional targeting of
33:24civilians. And it wasn't just one day,
33:27it was multiple days. And what I'm
33:30pointing out is this is the pattern that
33:33you would expect as this progresses. So
33:38that what you're doing is you're getting
33:39deeper in. And who are you going to
33:43communicate with to tell them to stop?
33:46>> What's number six?
33:47>> Number six. Now we need to understand
33:50that what's happened, Stephen, is look
33:52how deep we've gone in. We started with
33:54what was supposed to be just another
33:56limited strike. This time, however, it's
33:59building its own momentum. And as it
34:02builds its own momentum, it is now now
34:06we have that decentralized structure in
34:09Iran striking back in ways it decides on
34:13its own. But there's another problem.
34:16That other problem is these attacks,
34:18Stephen, are likely going to kill
34:21thousands and thousands of civilians in
34:26Iran.
34:26>> Which attacks? The 3-day and the six day
34:29and the continued attacks here on these
34:32instant thunder style airplane is
34:35exactly the airplane we executed against
34:38Sodom Hussein in 91. But it was against
34:41his regime. It was against the economic
34:43infrastructure. We hit his oil
34:45refineries. We hit his electric power.
34:47And we killed somewhere between five and
34:5015,000 civilians
34:53in doing this plan. This is not a her a
34:57plan where no civilians die. So you're
34:59saying this is a plan lots of people are
35:00going to die through this period. Lots
35:02of people are going to die here which
35:03and that leads to inspired attacks.
35:06>> What an inspired attack is is a
35:10terrorist attack that is not command
35:13directed by a government. It is not
35:15coming from the supreme leader. The
35:18supreme leader may even be dead as a
35:20result of all this. an inspired attack
35:22is what we saw in the Tel Aviv plane
35:24incident. So, we just literally saw the
35:28last time I was on your show, I was
35:30warning you that there will be we will
35:32likely see uh civilian attacks. It could
35:35well be inspired attacks. It's because
35:37in the aftermath of the tens of the 10
35:41million plus who came out to support the
35:44supreme leader, they called for revenge.
35:47That is exactly the pool of sentiments
35:50that is likely to inspire individuals on
35:54their own, I don't mean command directed
35:56by Iran, on their own to carry out
35:59terrorist attacks or suicide terrorist
36:02attacks. Well, what happened in the Tel
36:04Aviv incident? This was a co-pilot who
36:08the plane took off from the airport in
36:10Dubai and it had about 170 civilians on
36:14the airplane. And about a hundred of
36:16those civilians were Israelis. And after
36:202 and 1/2 hours, that co-pilot took an
36:24hatchet that was in the cockpit. Most
36:27people didn't even know there was a
36:28hatchet in the cockpit, and he tried to
36:31take control of the plane, tried to kill
36:35the pilot, and he was only 30 minutes
36:38from Tel Aviv. So, I've studied 8,000
36:43suicide attacks in detail.
36:45>> I've read [clears throat] a book about
36:46it.
36:46>> Two. You've got two. Two there. Yeah.
36:49Yeah. Cutting the fuse as well. So, so
36:51studying all those attacks once I saw
36:54exactly the location of where the
36:57co-pilot tried to take uh control of the
36:59plane, that told me very heavily this
37:02was likely a suicide attack. Because if
37:05he just wanted to kill himself, the
37:06co-pilot, he likely would have done that
37:08almost immediately after the plane had
37:10taken off. He wouldn't wait to just clo
37:13get so close to Tel Aviv that then he
37:16could have the possibility of driving it
37:18into a target in Tel Aviv, killing
37:20people on the plane and people on the
37:22ground in Tel Aviv. And looking at some
37:23of the reports here from CBS News, they
37:25say various sort of Israeli officials
37:28have linked it to Iran, but Trump also
37:31said based on what I'm hearing, the
37:33co-pilot had direct links to Iran,
37:36warning that any state actor behind the
37:37incident would face devastation.
37:39>> Well, so we don't know for sure it
37:43wasn't command directed. Stephen, I'm
37:45telling you that it wouldn't need to be
37:47command directed. Some of the best
37:50information we have is come from the
37:52pilot himself. So now that he's healing,
37:54he's giving interviews here and he is
37:57describing a situation where everything
37:59is fine in the flight. There's no sign
38:01whatsoever that he's sitting with a
38:04mentally disturbed individual looking to
38:07somehow off himself or so forth. And
38:09then suddenly he feels a club on his
38:12head. Then he realizes and starts to put
38:15two and two together. And that's when he
38:19makes every effort to keep the door
38:20open. And essentially what you saw here
38:24was we're not we can't say it's uh 100%
38:27certain it was a suicide terrorist
38:29attack but my estimate is that it's gone
38:31from being say 75% certain to 90%
38:36certain that this is an individual who
38:38wanted to not just kill himself but to
38:41kill everybody on that plane and to take
38:44control of the plane just in time to be
38:47able to ram it into Tel Aviv. Pilot said
38:52the morning started very normally.
38:54>> Y
38:54>> the first officer asked to pray then
38:57struck him from behind with the clash
38:59axe.
39:00>> Yep. And notice the pray. So this is a
39:03very common religious suicide attacker.
39:06They commonly will go through a certain
39:09ritual before they do their suicide
39:11attack.
39:13>> The pilot thought that a heavy piece of
39:14equipment had fallen on his head before
39:16realizing he was under assault. As his
39:19vision tunnneled from blood loss, his
39:21sole focus was releasing his seat belt
39:23and crawling towards the cockpit door
39:24release. He explained that each burst of
39:27physical effort caused him to fade in
39:28and out of consciousness. He noted the
39:30terrifying sensation of feeling the
39:32aircraft plunge violently nose down
39:34while he was on the floor. Believing he
39:36would not survive, he pushed through to
39:38unlock the reinforced door before
39:40collapsing face down, which allowed
39:42other passengers to see him and rush in.
39:45And then I think from what I heard in
39:46the reports, passengers rushed through
39:48the door, restrained the
39:51co-pilot, and I can't I don't know who
39:53landed the plane. Was the pilot able to
39:54>> No, there was actually somebody on board
39:56who was a pilot, had the knowledge to
39:59land the plane. This was an
40:00unintentional backup pilot that just
40:02happened to be there and that was um
40:05extremely fortuitous. But what you see
40:07here, Stephen, are the telltale signs.
40:10Because if it was suicide, then you
40:13would have expected it to happen right
40:16away. And if it was a suicide attacker,
40:18the first thing that that would come to
40:20their mind is if they took control of
40:22the plane 2 and 1/2 hours from Tel Aviv.
40:26Remember, it's a 3-hour flight to Tel
40:27Aviv from Dubai. If they took control of
40:29the plane too far out, well then that
40:32would create the opportunity for Israel
40:35to scramble jets to prevent it from
40:37striking Tel Aviv. So
40:38>> So you thought you think that they were
40:40trying to crash the plane into Israel?
40:42>> Yes, I think it's very strong and this
40:44is what what I mean by inspired attacks.
40:47When I saw the first command directed
40:49attack, that's the Houthis on civilians.
40:51We've seen an actual inspired terrorist
40:53attack that has already happened.
40:56Well, let's keep going.
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42:56>> So why did you jump up to the other
42:58line?
42:58>> Because we need to see the interactions
43:01of this is a crisis that's unfolding.
43:04Okay.
43:04>> See, what you are seeing here is that
43:08the election results are creating
43:10incentives to go down this road. But
43:13this doesn't just stay on its own path.
43:16It starts to play a role and come back
43:19up and start to affect events here
43:22because as this is occurring, we need to
43:25expect gas prices are going up. We need
43:28to expect diesel prices are going up. we
43:30need to expect the housing market which
43:32is already frozen up is going to freeze
43:34up even more. So this as we start to see
43:37the interaction here or the the the
43:39effects the effects are not simply
43:42what's happening in Iran or even what's
43:44happening in the economy and this will
43:46be in the world economy it's going to be
43:47what people think and we just got a big
43:50lesson in what people think in France
43:52and what happened in France wasn't just
43:54a one-day problem and it wasn't just a
43:57one-off it's starting it started to
43:59spread to other parts of Europe the
44:02riots and a big part of the riots not
44:05the only reason for the riots. So, we
44:07have some actual opinion poll data on
44:09this. So, I'm not just speaking
44:11generally, but a big part of the reason
44:13for the riots are the rising prices due
44:16to the Iran war. Well, this is exactly
44:21recreating and making those dynamics
44:23worse. So, now we're back over to the
44:27possibility here of protesters and
44:30federal agents starting to clash. This
44:33is a moment when they're still counting
44:35ballots. So now there's more and more
44:38tests occurring, but it's also at a
44:40point where the ballots have not been
44:42certified yet. So notice where we are.
44:44We have moved through November and we
44:48have nowhere near come to the end of
44:51transfer of power to the new Congress.
44:53So we have this whole very contentious
44:56election. We have the process here where
45:01we still have the counting and the
45:03certification of the ballots. We have
45:05that occurring not in isolation but in
45:09addition to an international set of
45:12events that are just
45:14>> and also the Russia
45:15>> and also the Russia. So we we've skipped
45:18over Putin. So what's happened here also
45:21in week four in week well roughly week
45:24four. This would be around Thanksgiving
45:25possibly. can't really polymarket it to
45:28the day, Stephen, but we're just giving
45:30the sequence. So, as the Iran war is
45:33escalating now, we have the the issue of
45:37will there be an actual deal with Trump
45:40and Putin that prevents Putin from
45:42escalating on Ukraine. Putin isn't just
45:45interested in some sort of, you know,
45:47uh, photo op with President Trump. What
45:50he wants out of President Trump is he
45:53wants there to be real pressure on
45:56Ukraine to cave to Putin's demands.
45:59>> What do you think Putin wants from
46:01Ukraine?
46:02>> What do you think he wants generally?
46:03>> Well, let's uh let's look at some of the
46:05maps.
46:05>> I've got a map.
46:06>> Yeah. So a really good way to understand
46:10this you see is in this map which is
46:14August of 2022 4 months after invaded
46:19Ukraine. You can see that the lines here
46:23have settled down into eastern Ukraine.
46:27You can see there's no longer Russian
46:29forces around Keev. uh all on the edges
46:33of the south of Ukraine and the east of
46:36Ukraine. And what you can see is this is
46:39Donatka. The these are some of the areas
46:42that Putin has already annexed. He's
46:45officially annexed them. And also this
46:47is Crimea.
46:49You see that Putin is still wanting to
46:52gain at least the rest of this territory
46:56right around here. These are the pieces
46:59of these four Oblasts that he has not
47:02conquered yet. He has officially annexed
47:05them in into Russia. He's he's actually
47:08passed laws in Russia, but he has not
47:11physically taken control of them. So, at
47:13a minimum, he's interested in
47:15controlling this bit of white around
47:17here and here. And notice at this point,
47:19he's he's pretty far away from that. Now
47:22he may also and he's talked about an
47:24area called Nova Russia Rousia which is
47:28uh this would be the next set of oblas
47:30just behind the first four and that is
47:34this area called Nova Ria which is also
47:37where vast numbers of Russian speakers
47:41also live in Ukraine. So the debate here
47:45is whether Putin only wants this white
47:48territory around here or does he also
47:51want this? But let's look where he is
47:52four years later after four solid years
47:56and the loss at a minimum of 250,000
48:01dead Russians. This is the minimum,
48:04Stephen. There's uh counts that go far
48:06higher than that. But these are the
48:08counts based on obituaries so that we're
48:11really sure by name that at least that
48:14number of Russians have died. Look at
48:17how far he is away. Look at the white.
48:20He's gained a little bit of territory,
48:23about 1% of Ukraine territory, but look
48:26how far away he still is from that white
48:30area I just pointed out. This is July
48:342026, and he of course is nowhere near
48:37the second force. So he is we So when we
48:41say that Putin wants a deal, this is not
48:45Putin settling for some sort of a signed
48:47piece of paper where he's just going to
48:49have a photo op with Trump. What he
48:51wants Trump to do is deliver the
48:53territory that he wants in Ukraine. What
48:57do you think is going to happen?
48:58>> I don't think Putin is going to get
48:59Trump is not going to be able to
49:01deliver. Trump can say that he'll
49:03deliver it, but he can't do that on his
49:05own. only Ukraine could deliver that
49:09territory. For Zalinski to truly
49:12surrender that territory, there's a good
49:15chance he'll be killed by his own
49:16people, his own military, his own
49:19because
49:19>> would kill him if he gave it up.
49:20>> Oh my gosh. Yes. Yes. Yes. So what what
49:23people don't know about international
49:25politics, I mean smart people don't
49:27know, people who even know a lot of
49:29history is leaders take dramatic risks
49:34when they're losers. I just explained to
49:36you the risk that Trump was taking here
49:38with the for someone in Putin's position
49:41or Zalinsk's position where they're
49:43literally talking about whether or not
49:46they will gain or surrender pieces of
49:49territory for Zalinsky to actually
49:52surrender not just the territory Putin
49:55currently has but even more. This is
49:58taking his life in his hands and his
50:00family's life in his hands.
50:01>> What's number seven?
50:02>> Ah, so let's keep looking. This is when
50:06Putin because doesn't get the territory.
50:10This is when Putin escalates. This is
50:12the most likely time after Putin is sure
50:15that Trump can't deliver any more
50:18territory. This is uh right around
50:20Thanksgiving. This is a likely possible
50:23time here when Putin is going to start
50:26to uh realize he can't get territory
50:29from Trump, Ukrainian territory from
50:31Trump. So he moves to his next plan
50:34which is the winter attacking the
50:37electric power stations in Kev, Carke,
50:41Odessa that is the capital city of
50:43Ukraine and two of the major cities in
50:46Ukraine near the areas he wants to
50:48control. And by attacking those electric
50:51power areas, he's not looking to just
50:54cause a couple of days of brown out
50:56where you don't have your air
50:58conditioning or your heating for a
51:00couple of days. a plan is to knock out
51:0390% of the power in those cities and
51:07that would keep that out. If you truly
51:09knock that out for that that that
51:11amount, this is probably going to last a
51:14month or two.
51:15>> This is very much his own escalation
51:17trap. very much Putin is in an
51:19escalation trap because Putin started
51:22this by launching almost 200,000 Russian
51:26troops in order to not just take the
51:28southern part of Ukraine and eastern
51:30part of Ukraine. Remember they were
51:31surrounding Kev. The idea here was to
51:34take Kev. So this was to take almost
51:38half of the country and he lost. So he
51:42is in his own escalation trap. Putin is
51:45because if he accepts surrender, if he
51:49accepts capitulation,
51:51now he has his own military to deal
51:55with. and he faces in not just
51:59humiliation and a horrible legacy in
52:03history, but he really faces the fate of
52:06a lot of authoritarian leaders do when
52:08they lose uh major wars, which is being
52:11killed.
52:11>> What do you think is going to happen
52:12with both of these wars?
52:14>> I think they're going to happen at the
52:16same time. What this what this chart is
52:18doing, what we're really showing here on
52:20this chart is all three of these
52:23dynamics are occurring at literally the
52:27over literally the same eight weeks.
52:29>> And what happens next?
52:30>> What happens next is they start to
52:33interact with each other. So now as we
52:37see that we're starting to see the
52:40escalation here of violent populism
52:43starting in a small way for real. And
52:46when you say violent populism, what does
52:48violent populism mean?
52:50>> Violent populism is when
52:54political violence moves from the fringe
52:58to the mainstream
53:00where you have not just small numbers of
53:04violent actors, but large numbers of
53:07violent actors. You don't just have an
53:10isolated political assassination
53:13attempt. You have strings of them over a
53:15period of years and you don't just have
53:18a protest that's a localized protest
53:21over say a police beating. Rodney King
53:24would be the classic example of of of a
53:27localized protest where in LA there were
53:30four days of riots but only in LA. That
53:33was in the early 1990s. With violent
53:36populism this starts to spread. It
53:39starts to spread and become much much
53:41more significant. Was that kind of like
53:42the Black Lives Matter pro protest which
53:44spread across the world?
53:45>> Exactly. It happened was a single focal
53:48point event and I'm going to show you
53:50how these uh actually occur in just a
53:54moment can spread like wildfire
53:58because with violent populism,
54:02political violence takes on a whole new
54:05dimension. Stephen, let me explain what
54:08I mean. I like to use the analogy for
54:12violent populism of a wildfire. And the
54:16part of the reason for that is because a
54:18lot of people know about wildfires and
54:21they know that in why we have a wildfire
54:25is we have this combustible material. Uh
54:29it's often dry wood that's been sitting
54:31there and maybe with global warming it's
54:34got we've gotten more of it and this is
54:37predictable. We can actually predict the
54:39size of the combustible material in a
54:43wildfire season. But what we can't do in
54:46wildfire season is predict the spark.
54:50What is the spark that's going to set
54:53this off? These are always unpredictable
54:55and the sparks can be a cigarette butt
54:58that's thrown in. So let me just show
55:00you what that might look like. So just
55:03in this analogy, what is the combustible
55:05material?
55:06>> In this analogy, the combustible
55:08material um with violent populism are
55:12the millions of Americans on both sides
55:15of the political spectrum who support
55:18political violence for their goals. And
55:22today we have over 40 million Americans
55:26who support political violence for
55:28Trump's goals. We have over 60 million
55:32Americans who support political violence
55:34against Trump's goals. They are the
55:38combustible material that can be set
55:40off. So you're saying with that pretext,
55:44with the sort of anger and with people
55:46being more supportive of violence to
55:48achieve their political goals, all it's
55:50going to take is a spark.
55:51>> All it's going to take is a spark. And
55:55imagine, let's use also, cuz we already
55:58mentioned George Floyd, let's use
56:00January 6 as an example. What happened
56:03on on January 6 is President Trump used
56:07his rhetoric, a tweet on December 19th,
56:102020 to call a MAGA to Washington to
56:15listen to him at the Ellipse. Then when
56:18they were there at the ellipse, he told
56:20them to march on the capital still kind
56:23of channeling where the all the dry
56:26combustible material were. Then what
56:29happened is there was the true spark and
56:33what was that true spark that set off
56:36January 6? It was another week by Trump
56:41where he told them Mike Pence had let
56:43them down. At that moment, that's when
56:47the crowd burst through into the capital
56:50in multiple places in response to that
56:53tweet. And that's when you can hear the
56:55chance, "Hang Mike Pence. Hang Mike
56:59Pence." That's violent populism in
57:03action.
57:08And notice what we need is just like
57:10what you did, which is we need a fire
57:13break. And we don't want to wait until
57:16the next fire because that if we wait
57:19until the next wildfires to occur, we
57:23may not it may happen and spread so
57:25quickly, Stephen, that we may be in a
57:27situation like France. So notice in
57:30France that this wasn't just a localized
57:33event where it was a protest that got
57:36out of hand against one government
57:38building. This was a series of protests
57:41that got out of hand. And they got out
57:44of hand just in Paris, but in multiple
57:47cities in in in France. And then a week
57:50later, they happened again and wasn't
57:54just limited to Paris and cities in
57:56France. It spread beyond itself. So this
58:01is what I mean by violent populism
58:04starting to emerge and these clashes.
58:08this between uh the federal agents and
58:10protesters over say possibly u ballot
58:14counting. This is what I mean by a focal
58:16point event. It's literally an event
58:19here that can act as a spark and it can
58:22touch off those sentiments and that is
58:26violent populism in action. So now we
58:31have notice we have actual major
58:34problems starting to happen inside the
58:36United States. We have major problems in
58:39Iran that are just getting worse and
58:41these are feeding each other. We have
58:44major problems that are happening in the
58:46Russian Ukraine war and this too is
58:49going to increase energy prices. This is
58:52going to these are these are not
58:54disconnected events anymore. Is that is
58:57that why I think it was Wes Streeting
59:00that said we in the UK need to stock up
59:02on on this stuff.
59:04>> That is exactly why I think they are
59:06stocking. They're asking the public to
59:09stock up on batteries so that in case
59:13the internet goes down. Why would you
59:15stock up on batteries? Because there's
59:17more problems down the road here.
59:21>> The one that told me he said this, I
59:22actually missed that piece of news.
59:23>> Yes. You're saying the UK government has
59:25asked people in the UK to stock up on
59:27batteries
59:27>> on batteries, beans, flashlights, water.
59:32Because what can happen as this pattern,
59:36as this escalation gets worse and worse
59:40is you can start to see that Ukraine
59:44will will uh start to back here against
59:48Russia and then Russia may start to
59:52punish the supporters of Ukraine and
59:54Europe including right here in London,
59:58right here in Britain. And that's why
1:00:00the defense minister is um uh calling
1:00:05for preparations. Not saying there's a
1:00:09tactical intelligence that there is a
1:00:11threat coming tomorrow, but I believe
1:00:14looking at something like this board
1:00:17that we are uh outlining, Stephen, and
1:00:21looking at this and saying, well, wait a
1:00:22second, wait a second. The risk here of
1:00:25this starting to get out of control is
1:00:28starting to become real. And rather than
1:00:31wait for a panic to ensue after there
1:00:34would be a cyber attack that would say
1:00:37knock out the internet for several days
1:00:40or knock out electric power in Britain
1:00:43for several uh for several days. Go
1:00:46ahead, stock up on some stuff now so you
1:00:49can ride out some of those issues. So,
1:00:52the UK government has officially told
1:00:54households to prepare for national
1:00:55emergencies, launching the Be Ready
1:00:58campaign, which advises every family to
1:01:00stockpile at least 3 days worth of
1:01:02essential supplies to survive potential
1:01:05hostile state attacks, cyber warfare, or
1:01:08major infrastructure collapse. Britons
1:01:10are being asked to store 3 L of bottled
1:01:13water per person per day, a 3-day cache
1:01:18of non-p perishable tinned food
1:01:21alongside battery powered windup
1:01:24torches,
1:01:27radios. That's why this
1:01:29>> Y Britney Spears radio
1:01:31>> battery powered radios,
1:01:33>> power banks, first aid kits, and
1:01:35physical
1:01:37physical cash.
1:01:40And the reason for physical cash,
1:01:42Stephen, is because ATMs won't work.
1:01:44>> Pointing directly to the reality of
1:01:46modern conflict and state sponsored
1:01:48sabotage. The stark question being put
1:01:50to the public is how ordinary people
1:01:51would cope in a moment where electronic
1:01:54payment systems or local supermarket
1:01:56supply chains suddenly collapsed. A
1:01:58warning that has already driven panic
1:01:59buying, stripping supermarket shelves of
1:02:01bottled water and canned goods while
1:02:03sparking a massive run on emergency
1:02:05supplies across the entire country. That
1:02:07is crazy. It is and it's showing
1:02:10Stephen that governments are already
1:02:14paying attention to the risks that we're
1:02:17laying out here. So when we see the
1:02:21United States pulling back its personnel
1:02:24and families from embassies around the
1:02:28Middle East, when we see the British
1:02:30government initiating a be ready 3-day
1:02:35preparation campaign, what you are
1:02:38seeing is governments are understanding
1:02:42the risks that are that are starting to
1:02:45emerge.
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1:03:48So what happens next?
1:03:50>> So as we keep going
1:03:52now,
1:03:54>> US water systems forced to manual.
1:03:56>> Yes. So this is where the real danger
1:03:59starts to come in. Once we see cyber
1:04:01attacks, we we need to understand that
1:04:04this summer in Minnesota and in a number
1:04:08of other states in the United States in
1:04:11July, the power and the water went out.
1:04:17So, we had a water problem and the New
1:04:20York Times was the only paper to cover
1:04:23this. And the New York Times quoted
1:04:26directly from US intelligence that said
1:04:29this was most likely Iran doing a cyber
1:04:32attack inside the United States. Story
1:04:36was never followed up again. That story
1:04:38was not repeated by other agencies. That
1:04:41has all the hallmarks of US intelligence
1:04:44telling the papers not to cover the
1:04:47story. Now what happened in the case is
1:04:50we know it's
1:04:51>> You think that's what happened? Well,
1:04:54I've spent a lot of time with US
1:04:56intelligence community. So, in the '9s,
1:04:59I had a clearance, but in the last 20,
1:05:0130 years, I spent an enormous amount of
1:05:03time with our intelligence community.
1:05:06And the quotes, the language in that
1:05:08article, if people will go back to the
1:05:10article, you'll see that the article is
1:05:13spec quoting specific people and saying
1:05:16that it has Iran's fingerprints for
1:05:20cyber attack. Now, that's important.
1:05:23That phrasing is very important,
1:05:26Stephen, because that's exactly the
1:05:29phrasing, the unclassified phrasing that
1:05:32is used to understand the cyber
1:05:35capabilities of different actors, China,
1:05:38Russia, Iran, North Korea.
1:05:41>> Do you think the water went out in
1:05:42Minnesota because Iran didn't attack?
1:05:44And then
1:05:44>> I think it's most likely Iran. Yes, I do
1:05:46think. I I we can't say for certain. But
1:05:49I do I I would not put it forward if I
1:05:51didn't think that was a credible report.
1:05:53>> And then you think the US government
1:05:54might have had a word with some
1:05:55journalists and said, "Listen,
1:05:56>> yeah, take it off the table. Don't talk
1:05:58about it."
1:05:59>> Do they do that?
1:06:00>> They do. They do. I Gulf War in 1991.
1:06:04There was a big effort by um the uh
1:06:07Pentagon to work with CNN, ABC, others
1:06:11in the news to in fact control some of
1:06:14the news that was coming out. And in the
1:06:16uh up to the 2003 Iraq war, um this
1:06:20continued and one of the times I was on
1:06:23the set, so I was on the set, I won't I
1:06:25don't want to embarrass the journalist,
1:06:26but I was on the set in CNN and they
1:06:29flew me into New York and I was
1:06:30literally on a set similar like your
1:06:32team. I was just talking about how great
1:06:34your team is compared to theirs and u
1:06:36sitting around the table and the
1:06:38reporter who's a famous reporter had me
1:06:41on with certain generals and before the
1:06:44cameras rolled she said so let's let's
1:06:47start with the ground rules what should
1:06:49we not say what should we not ask you
1:06:51what should we not talk about with the
1:06:54public just imagine that Stephen imagine
1:06:57that okay they would ask you
1:07:01to tell them what they can't share with
1:07:04the public.
1:07:05>> They ask people from the administration
1:07:07who were this was the Bush
1:07:09administration where the normal role of
1:07:11the journalist is to do the opposite. In
1:07:14fact, CNN very very famously got started
1:07:17by interviewing Sodom Hussein in the 19
1:07:20or not got started but one of the big
1:07:22things that they got a lot of prominence
1:07:24was interviewing Sodom Hussein when the
1:07:26US military went apoplelectic when they
1:07:28did. So this is what I mean by when you
1:07:30ask me would it be possible for the US
1:07:33for intelligence uh US government to ask
1:07:36media to uh for the good they would say
1:07:38for the good of national security uh to
1:07:40cool it on a story and the fact is I've
1:07:42seen it myself.
1:07:44>> Wow. What's next?
1:07:45>> So now this is the big problem we worry
1:07:48about. I can't tell you this is certain
1:07:50to come. Would not want to do that. I'm
1:07:53telling you this is the pathway and if
1:07:56we get all the way down to this part of
1:07:58the pathway and that's an if then we
1:08:01have to worry about real troops in the
1:08:04streets when
1:08:06in the weeks just before the Congress
1:08:09would be seated.
1:08:10>> So American troops in American streets
1:08:13>> American troops in American streets.
1:08:15>> Has that happened before? since the uh
1:08:18the 50s and the 60s when in the 50s this
1:08:22was a completely different environment.
1:08:25So, President Trump just to put why this
1:08:28is even credible at all on October 1st
1:08:31in Time magazine he was interviewed
1:08:33about would he declare the insurrection
1:08:35act and he said specifically that he
1:08:39might and he wouldn't take it off the
1:08:41table. Well, the insurrection act would
1:08:44be the use of US military or it could be
1:08:48the national guard or the reserves. It
1:08:50wouldn't have to be exactly the serving
1:08:52military uh but the use of the military
1:08:54in uh American uh cities and that is a
1:08:59huge step. it's rarely been used. Uh and
1:09:03that's a step which under the
1:09:05circumstances of the environment I am
1:09:08explaining you can see that first of all
1:09:11there would be an ongoing escalation in
1:09:15just one war but we now have two wars
1:09:17and with this could be building and
1:09:19building at this point in time that
1:09:21would create the environment in which
1:09:23there is an actual international
1:09:26emergency that's occurring. So the
1:09:28insurrection act is What does that mean?
1:09:30The insurrection act.
1:09:32>> The insurrection act is where the
1:09:33president has emergency powers to use
1:09:38the US military or as I said national
1:09:41guard or the reserves within the borders
1:09:43of the United States against the
1:09:45citizens of the United States. So
1:09:48normally we have a policy called P
1:09:51commatatus where the president not using
1:09:54the US military inside of our own
1:09:57borders. for obvious reasons, Stephen,
1:10:00which is just takes a a moment in
1:10:03history knows that authoritarian states
1:10:06have routinely used their military to
1:10:09suppress their own population. So, the
1:10:12United States, the leading democracy in
1:10:14the world, gone way out of its way to
1:10:17not uh go down that road. That's why
1:10:21it's particularly striking when
1:10:23President Trump will not take that
1:10:26option off the table. And if there was
1:10:30not a war, one could look at the courts
1:10:33and one could think, well, if President
1:10:36Trump tried to invoke the Insurrection
1:10:38Act, could be taken to court and the
1:10:41courts would oppose that act and it
1:10:44wouldn't come into being.
1:10:45>> What happens next in in Iran? What
1:10:48happens next is now we've pushed all the
1:10:52way to look at how much danger there is
1:10:55that's occurring here, how much economic
1:10:58pressure that's occurring. But also
1:11:01notice that the Iranian military,
1:11:04although it's still able to do some
1:11:06strikes, they probably are pretty
1:11:09significantly paralyzed. They're not
1:11:11100% paralyzed by any stretch. They're
1:11:13able to launch drone strikes, probably
1:11:17missile strikes, probably even cyber
1:11:19attacks, but that doesn't mean it's the
1:11:22same military as exists today before the
1:11:263-day war, the 3-day air war.
1:11:29>> There'll be US ground troops in Iran. I
1:11:31think there's Yes. I think this is why
1:11:33the Marines are moving because under the
1:11:36circumstances of the sequence I've just
1:11:38laid out for you. If people think that
1:11:40um when President Trump is talking about
1:11:42moving US Marines into uh in for limited
1:11:46ground operations, this would be
1:11:49necessarily a suicide mission. Now, it
1:11:51could be a suicide mission, but this is
1:11:52very unlikely. much more likely would be
1:11:55the way this played out with instant
1:11:58thunder, which is you would paralyze as
1:12:00much as you could of the Iranian
1:12:03military. The Iranian military would
1:12:05still have remnants that are able to
1:12:08attack us pretty severely. Now, you have
1:12:11the ground force option to go in to try
1:12:14to deal with localized areas of those
1:12:18remnants, and you have a real reason to
1:12:20do it. And once we go down this road,
1:12:23Stephen, in fact, I'm quite concerned
1:12:25that once we start the 3-day bombing
1:12:28campaign, this sequence is going to be
1:12:31almost impossible to stop because once
1:12:34you start the 3-day bombing campaign,
1:12:37this is going to unleash responses by
1:12:41the uh remaining elements of the Iran
1:12:44military that can fire at us and they
1:12:46will be maximally incentivized to fire
1:12:49at uh the Gulf. states, infrastructure
1:12:52in the Gulf States. Once you go all the
1:12:54way down this this far, now you're in
1:12:57the true forever war. Now you're in the
1:12:59forever war that we can't really get out
1:13:02of. And we are now into a world where
1:13:07this is a true emergency. President
1:13:10Trump will be able to start declaring
1:13:12more and more emergency powers because
1:13:14this will be a true emergency and it
1:13:18won't be over by Christmas. These eight
1:13:20weeks are the most dangerous eight
1:13:23weeks. But if we go all the way through
1:13:26this trajectory, Stephen, this will lead
1:13:30into a devastating
1:13:332027.
1:13:34>> And lastly,
1:13:36>> lastly,
1:13:36>> what happens in Russia? Russia,
1:13:40we see that if in fact what the defense
1:13:44minister in London is worried about
1:13:46happens, if those cyber attacks happen,
1:13:49there's going to be enormous pressure on
1:13:51Europe to retaliate directly against
1:13:54Moscow. This is not a situation where
1:13:57cyber attacks, see, people haven't
1:13:59really experienced cyber warfare.
1:14:02They've heard about it. They've read
1:14:03books about it. There's science fiction
1:14:05books written about it, but they haven't
1:14:07experienced it. So, what they what I
1:14:09think many people think is, well, the
1:14:12internet goes out for 30 minutes and it
1:14:14just pops right back in, right? So,
1:14:16what's the big deal? The this isn't the
1:14:19real set of cyber attacks our government
1:14:22has been worrying about for decades. The
1:14:24real set of cyber attacks are much, much
1:14:27more costly on publics, the American
1:14:30public, the European public. And under
1:14:33those circumstances, those publiclix are
1:14:35going to demand payback. Then that's
1:14:37when you actually have Europe
1:14:40retaliating against Moscow. And you know
1:14:42what that means? You know what that word
1:14:44the word is for that when Europe does
1:14:46that, Stephen? World War II. That's what
1:14:50World War II looks like. Many people for
1:14:55months have been discussing, are we in
1:14:58World War II? The answer is no. We're
1:15:00not in World War II. We have war
1:15:03happening around the world and in major
1:15:05parts of the world. What World War III
1:15:08means, when the world's largest powers
1:15:13attack each other's homelands and their
1:15:16militaries
1:15:17kill each other, directly engage each
1:15:20other. That is not the situation today.
1:15:24And we've been nowhere near that even
1:15:26with all of the escalations that have
1:15:29happened in the Ukraine war. But aren't
1:15:31we doing that by proxy? I.e. Britain
1:15:35just announced yesterday they're going
1:15:36to give another 10 billion to the
1:15:37Ukraine. Presumably that money is going
1:15:39to be spent on killing Russians
1:15:41indirectly or directly. So, aren't we in
1:15:43these proxy wars already? We were in
1:15:45proxy wars during the Cold War almost
1:15:48every year from 1947 until 1989. We were
1:15:54in proxy wars in Africa. We were in
1:15:57proxy wars in Latin America. We were in
1:16:00uh wars in Afghanistan. So remember the
1:16:03Soviets went into Afghanistan. We sent
1:16:05in the muja.
1:16:06>> Difference is when they attack each
1:16:07other directly.
1:16:08>> Exactly. So proxy wars we we have we
1:16:12have faced proxy wars almost every year
1:16:15during the cold war since 1947 and after
1:16:18the cold war. That is not a world war.
1:16:21We're going to use the phrase we're in
1:16:23World War three. then it should have
1:16:27some semblance to World War I and World
1:16:30War II and what the real pardon me
1:16:32>> that's likely
1:16:34>> I hope everything we're doing here
1:16:36Stephen will prevent it. So I believe
1:16:40that what we're starting down now I
1:16:44don't mean eight weeks from now I mean
1:16:46literally from today forward
1:16:50we are living through the eight most
1:16:52dangerous weeks in our lives. I believe
1:16:56that if we allow this momentum to carry
1:16:59on on its own that it's going to lead to
1:17:04very very bad outcomes at this part of
1:17:06the
1:17:08and we can do a lot.
1:17:09>> What can we do?
1:17:11>> Number one is every member of Congress
1:17:16who's still in the lame duck Congress
1:17:18now and who's just been elected to
1:17:21Congress can say one thing. No
1:17:24escalation by the by the Trump
1:17:27administration in Iran until the new
1:17:30Congress is seated unless Iran strikes
1:17:33first. Very simple declaration.
1:17:37This is the core firebreak.
1:17:40The core fire break is no escalation on
1:17:44Iran.
1:17:46uh the Trump administration called for
1:17:48by every member of Congress sitting now
1:17:52who's in the lame duck Congress and
1:17:54who's just won election to the new
1:17:56Congress on step one. Step number two is
1:18:02now that we're actually in counting
1:18:04season and certification season,
1:18:07there should be every governor and every
1:18:10mayor should call on President Trump to
1:18:14hold a two-month moratorum on all
1:18:18federally armed agents in their cities
1:18:23unless the governors and mayors call for
1:18:25it. A two-month moratorum. So we take
1:18:28off the table the possibility
1:18:32of violent populism getting out of
1:18:35control. The key sparks, we can't take
1:18:36every spark off, but we can take the key
1:18:38sparks off.
1:18:39>> Is there a third one?
1:18:40>> A third one incredibly important, which
1:18:44is that in all of the conflicts we have
1:18:48just laid out, we have the United States
1:18:50in the middle of them. We have Iran in
1:18:53the middle of them. We have Russia in
1:18:56the middle of them. We have Iran very
1:18:58central. Of course, we now have Saudi
1:19:00Arabia.
1:19:02We should have the core countries that
1:19:06are calling themselves mediators. And
1:19:08who are those countries? Pakistan,
1:19:11Qatar, and increasingly India. India has
1:19:14been playing a quiet role behind the
1:19:17scenes with Russia and uh and and
1:19:20Ukraine. Those three countries that have
1:19:23played this role as mediator should call
1:19:25on all of the countries to do one thing.
1:19:29Hands off civilians.
1:19:32Hands off civilians.
1:19:35No direct targeting of civilian
1:19:39infrastructure or civilian residential
1:19:42areas by states. Those are the three. If
1:19:46we do those three things, what we're
1:19:49doing is we are establishing fire breaks
1:19:53on those that that momentum of the eight
1:19:57most dangerous weeks in our lives and we
1:20:02have we do not have to simply watch as
1:20:06those eight weeks unfold. Stephen,
1:20:08>> what about the general public? What
1:20:10should they be doing? Do you take the
1:20:11advice of West Streeting? Do you think
1:20:12we should be stockpiling?
1:20:14I'm personally not doing that because um
1:20:17what will happen is uh bring that back
1:20:20up for a moment. Let me show you what's
1:20:22really going to happen. Now we're at day
1:20:26one and let's say day one we still have
1:20:28a lot of uh water in our bodies. So day
1:20:31one we use one bottle of water.
1:20:35Now we go through day two. Day two of
1:20:39the outage, we have to go through both
1:20:41bottles of water because we're now
1:20:43starting to run out of water. Now we're
1:20:45at day three. That's what he's told us
1:20:47to do. Now we're at day three and we're
1:20:50definitely going through our bottles of
1:20:52water. Here's the fundamental problem,
1:20:55Stephen.
1:20:57The attacks can happen again.
1:20:59>> You're saying there's no point.
1:21:01>> What I'm saying is there's no point. And
1:21:02what I'm saying is everybody will come
1:21:05to that realization on day one that this
1:21:08is not
1:21:11going to prevent the panic. This is not
1:21:14going to truly buy time those three
1:21:17days. The way the governments can buy
1:21:20time are those three fire breaks. And
1:21:23what can every ordinary person do? They
1:21:26can email, they can text, and they can
1:21:29call their favorite political leader,
1:21:32whoever that is, and tell them to adopt
1:21:37those three fire breaks. That is how we
1:21:40can navigate this journey and do
1:21:43something about it. Otherwise, we're
1:21:46just letting the events control us.
1:21:49>> I was going to ask you the question in
1:21:50the book, and the question in the book
1:21:51is basically, what can people do now to
1:21:53prepare for the next 5 years? But I
1:21:55think you might have just answered it.
1:21:57>> I think I did.
1:21:58>> Um, you have this wonderful book that's
1:22:00out now, Our Own Worst Enemies: America
1:22:03in the Age of Violent Populism. You're
1:22:06someone that's so incredibly well read,
1:22:07decades and decades and decades of the
1:22:09most interesting experience. Um, anybody
1:22:12is interested in these subjects that
1:22:13we've talked about today, this is the
1:22:15definitive book on the subject matter.
1:22:16It is evidence-based. There's lots of
1:22:18stats and graphs and figures in here,
1:22:20but also um, so deeply read on history
1:22:23as you are, Robert.
1:22:25Thank you for coming here and thank you
1:22:26for continually keep keeping the lights
1:22:27on for me cuz you know I remember the
1:22:29first time you came and I thought what's
1:22:30he talking about escalation trap there's
1:22:32no chance but it's um completely changed
1:22:34my mind on how on what's going on in the
1:22:37world and it's actually helped me to
1:22:39understand reality and the complex messy
1:22:42reality of war and incentives and ego
1:22:45and humans and the human cost on the
1:22:48other end of it and you know again we
1:22:50always talk about Ukraine and Iran but I
1:22:52think it's worth also remembering that
1:22:53there
1:22:54millions, tens and tens and tens of
1:22:55millions of people, probably what, 130
1:22:57million people combined, 40 million in
1:22:59Ukraine, 90 million in Iran.
1:23:00>> Absolutely.
1:23:01>> That are right in the heart of all of
1:23:02this. And you know, it's all well and
1:23:03good me sat here in our big office and
1:23:05studio lamenting about what's going to
1:23:09happen to them. But there are very real
1:23:10people that are living there trying to
1:23:12live their lives amidst all of this
1:23:14absolute craziness and chaos. And my
1:23:15heart goes out to them. And and Stephen,
1:23:17I just want to say one of the most
1:23:20important things that's happening is
1:23:23social media is not just a problem, but
1:23:27you're seeing with your show, social
1:23:29media can be a tremendous help. On the
1:23:33times I've come on your show, we have
1:23:35really laid out some pretty dark
1:23:37scenarios. And after the show, because
1:23:41of so many people, what happens is the
1:23:44questions come to the key leaders. One
1:23:48of the key things when I was on just the
1:23:50last time in July, we talked about we
1:23:52were just about to unleash a whole
1:23:55series of attacks with SenCom to go
1:23:58after Iran's drone network. This would
1:24:00have been a disaster. This would not
1:24:02have ended in improving matters here.
1:24:05And there was tremendous momentum
1:24:07building for that. And this was uh uh
1:24:10generals uh others in the military
1:24:13ex-military and I know because what
1:24:15happened after our show is uh changed
1:24:19and suddenly
1:24:21what was the reality the real issues
1:24:24came to the four and that's one of the
1:24:26big reasons I believe we didn't go down
1:24:29that dark road.
1:24:30>> It's because of
1:24:31>> I think it's because of the diary. I
1:24:33think it's because of the diary. And I
1:24:34think it's not just the diary. I think
1:24:36it's because on social media, what we're
1:24:39able to do today that we could not do 20
1:24:42years ago when we went into Iraq and
1:24:44Afghanistan is we're able to have
1:24:46serious substantive conversations where
1:24:50we lay out the actual risks and
1:24:53consequences, the true worst cases that
1:24:56could come.
1:24:57>> And have you been contacted by anybody
1:24:59at the White House?
1:25:00>> Advised every White House since Are you
1:25:02advising this one?
1:25:03>> Uh, I've advised every White House,
1:25:05Robert.
1:25:06>> I've advised every White House since
1:25:07>> Have you been contacted by the White
1:25:08House?
1:25:09>> I've advised every White House since
1:25:109/11. And if there's um any any contact
1:25:14I have been let you off the hook.
1:25:16>> Any contact I have, I could never ever
1:25:19and and let me just simply let me just
1:25:22here all day. Robert,
1:25:23>> have you been contacted by the White
1:25:26House? You can you don't have to tell me
1:25:28who, but since you've come on this show,
1:25:30have they contacted you for advice? So,
1:25:32I've been um uh I've advised uh chief of
1:25:35staff of the Air Force and I've advised
1:25:37every White House since 9/11. I'm
1:25:39incredibly proud of that. And the fact
1:25:42of the matter is show
1:25:45>> and your show among other shows, but
1:25:48your show is a leading show raises the
1:25:51profile of the consequences
1:25:54and that is incredibly important as we
1:25:57go. Okay, I'm not going to ask you about
1:25:59the White House, but have people
1:26:00contacted you in positions of power?
1:26:02>> Yes.
1:26:03>> Okay. Cuz I remember last time you're on
1:26:05the show, I remember I asked you, I
1:26:06said, "Has this what would you advise
1:26:07this White House? Have they have they
1:26:08reached out?" And you said no to me when
1:26:10we first met. So, subsequently, you've
1:26:13been contacted by people in positions of
1:26:14power. Anytime somebody in a position of
1:26:17power reaches out, and that can be in
1:26:20America and outside of America, it is an
1:26:23incredible honor for me to uh the best
1:26:28advice I possibly can and I will
1:26:31continue to do that every
1:26:33>> advising the White House.
1:26:35>> I'm just telling you, Stephen, that I um
1:26:39um
1:26:40I'm No, I'm not telling you I'm doing
1:26:42that. I'm telling you that what um I am
1:26:46uh incredibly honored when people of
1:26:48power reach out and the fact of the
1:26:50matter is um Stephen that the best way
1:26:53to the best way the best way to
1:26:57influence the world is not always behind
1:27:00closed doors. It does happen sometimes.
1:27:03I'm really trying to tell you that what
1:27:05happens when we explain the actual
1:27:09consequences or the danger zone we're
1:27:11moving into.
1:27:12>> I get it. I get it, Robert. This is how
1:27:14it raises.
1:27:15>> I'm saying so are you advising people in
1:27:17power in the United States?
1:27:19>> I'm advis I'm just telling you people in
1:27:21power have contacted me. It's been a
1:27:23tremendous honor and I'm very glad.
1:27:25>> I'm glad I'm glad I'm glad they're I'm
1:27:26glad they're listening.
1:27:28>> Are they listening?
1:27:30>> These people in power Steven um At some
1:27:33at some point at some point at some
1:27:35point at some point we're going to be
1:27:37able to look back on this and be able to
1:27:40um say how did we get through this
1:27:42period of time and we're going to have
1:27:44those conversations. But the way we're
1:27:47going to way we're going to do this is
1:27:49>> listen listen
1:27:50>> I'm asking are they listening? Are the
1:27:53people you I'm not asking who they are
1:27:54what they're asking you about. I'm
1:27:55saying are they listening? I'm tell so
1:27:58the people in power who have um
1:28:01contacted me do believe um are listening
1:28:04whether they're in the United States or
1:28:05around the world and I do believe that u
1:28:09and I just want to point out that one of
1:28:11the big issues here is communicating the
1:28:15true risks that we're running in
1:28:19powerful ways.
1:28:21>> Robert, thank you.
1:28:22>> Thank you. Thank you for turning the
1:28:23lights on for so many of us and bringing
1:28:25and simplifying complexity. It's all so
1:28:28complex cuz there's so much rhetoric and
1:28:30propaganda and stuff. So, it's nice to
1:28:31sit with lots of different people that
1:28:32have lots of different perspectives and
1:28:34have the wealth of experience that you
1:28:35have and have it laid out to me that I
1:28:37can really comprehend. So
1:28:40hopefully we avoid this escalation. I
1:28:42believe this is how if we're going to
1:28:45avoid it. I'm an optimist and that's why
1:28:48I'm excited to be on your show. Not
1:28:51because I want to see the doom loop, but
1:28:53because I want to see us come to a
1:28:56better world.
1:28:56>> I tell you, I'm glad the White House
1:28:58reached out. Thank you, Robert. I've
1:28:59done that. [laughter]
1:29:01>> You tried. You're doing good.
1:29:04>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm
1:29:05where they know exactly what video you
1:29:08would like to watch next based on AI and
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1:29:16for everybody looking right now. Check
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