IRAN SURVIVING CHANGED EVERYTHING - #1 Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape — Transcript

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1. 0:00First thing that happened was Iran
2. 0:01survived. Well, then what happened is
3. 0:04you saw the shattering of American
4. 0:07invincibility. It shattered. Very little
5. 0:11confidence now in the invincibility of
6. 0:14American military power. Uh we're having
7. 0:17a hard enough time defending our own
8. 0:18ships, let alone anybody else. Uh here
9. 0:22with that power. Well, the Europeans are
10. 0:23seeing that absolutely front and center.
11. 0:26And they are facing the most difficult
12. 0:30guns versus butter problem that any of
13. 0:33those MPs I think have ever had in their
14. 0:35lifetimes and probably their their
15. 0:37parents' lifetimes. And it's because
16. 0:40if uh they do nothing and they do not
17. 0:43support Ukraine, I don't mean with
18. 0:45troops, I mean economically support
19. 0:48Ukraine, uh fulfill the pledges that
20. 0:50they made at the NATO summit in July,
21. 0:53which also was around July 7th. Well,
22. 0:55July 7th will go down as a critical
23. 0:57critical date here uh when histories are
24. 1:00written. Well, the um
25. 1:02Europeans are facing a real problem
26. 1:04because their gas prices are higher than
27. 1:07Americans already. They're they're I I
28. 1:10don't know if it's quite double, but it
29. 1:11is way up there already. And they're
30. 1:14heading into a winter where they don't
31. 1:17have the normal reserves they usually
32. 1:20have with energy going into their
33. 1:22winter.
34. 1:23And they're facing a buying then at um
35. 1:27where they are facing again the most
36. 1:29wicked guns versus butter problem that I
37. 1:32think they have faced in again the MPs'
38. 1:35lifetime and I think their parents'
39. 1:36lifetime. And this is uh
40. 1:40what I'm I'm seeing is not joy in
41. 1:43supporting Ukraine. That's not what I
42. 1:45would say at all. But what I'm seeing is
43. 1:48that they they're looking and they're
44. 1:50realizing that America's not there to
45. 1:54bail them out. And it's not just
46. 1:56American will. It's not just well, if
47. 1:58only we had a different president than
48. 1:59Trump uh
49. 2:01uh we could be bailed out. I think
50. 2:03they're seeing the shattering of
51. 2:05American invincibility,
52. 2:07and that is changing things
53. 2:10dramatically. And it's changing
54. 2:12dramatically their
55. 2:15uh
56. 2:16their their almost all the discussion,
57. 2:18the 2-hour discussion I had with the MPs
58. 2:21in the European Parliament, it was
59. 2:22entitled a
60. 2:24US, Israel, and the Iran war. Well, we
61. 2:27talked about that for 10 minutes, and
62. 2:29then we spent the whole time talking
63. 2:30about Ukraine.
64. 2:31Uh well, I mean, that's a little bit of
65. 2:33an exaggeration, but this was really
66. 2:35what was on their minds. And I'm not at
67. 2:37all surprised
68. 2:39um that you're seeing uh the French
69. 2:41trying to um
70. 2:43step into effectively what's a power
71. 2:45vacuum. When you shattered American
72. 2:47invincibility, you have a power vacuum
73. 2:50in the in the in the Gulf and in the
74. 2:53Arabian Peninsula. You have a power
75. 2:56vacuum essentially in Europe. Is Putin
76. 2:59going to fill that power vacuum? Um and
77. 3:03that's not a happy thought for these
78. 3:05these folks. Uh and it's not because
79. 3:07they they they're they they want to uh
80. 3:10you know, have higher defense spending
81. 3:11right now or anything like that. Um it's
82. 3:14because they're seeing the real security
83. 3:16consequences of not doing it. And they
84. 3:18also know they're MPs. I mean, they were
85. 3:20explaining to me they're politicians.
86. 3:22Their their publics are just apoplectic
87. 3:24about what's happening with the economic
88. 3:26costs here. Um but at the same time, uh
89. 3:29this could actually get worse for
90. 3:31Europe, and they're trying to figure out
91. 3:33how to navigate that uh that issue with
92. 3:36Ukraine. Now, then there's the third
93. 3:38area I I want to get on make sure we get
94. 3:41on the table. Um and and this this this
95. 3:44shock wave
96. 3:46uh now that it's really hit hard, Mario,
97. 3:49this is having gigantic uh seismic
98. 3:52reverberations around the world. So,
99. 3:55President Xi is about to show up here in
100. 3:57Washington. I'm not at all surprised
101. 4:00he's still coming to Washington, and
102. 4:01he's bringing his version of the tech
103. 4:04bros with him. He's bringing the BYD,
104. 4:08um, executives. Uh, that's a electric,
105. 4:11uh, the biggest electric car
106. 4:12manufacturing company in the world, I
107. 4:14just want to point out, 5 million cars a
108. 4:17year, just to put make it clear. That's
109. 4:20bigger than the entire American car
110. 4:22market. Uh, that's one company. Uh,
111. 4:25Xiaomi, uh, is effectively the
112. 4:28Porsche-level,
113. 4:30uh, EV. Um, and I know a lot about that
114. 4:33cuz I think as I mentioned to you, uh, a
115. 4:35year ago June, June 2025, I spent 2
116. 4:37weeks touring China's advanced
117. 4:40industries, on the shop floor at the
118. 4:43Xiaomi, uh, facility, which is just
119. 4:45right outside of Beijing, at BYD, which
120. 4:48is in Shenzhen. Uh, and so I'm I'm not
121. 4:51just, you know, ripping this off the
122. 4:52internet or something. I mean, this is,
123. 4:54uh, and what what is interest what what
124. 4:57I think is is really important to
125. 4:58understand is Xi's leverage is growing.
126. 5:04Now, why would Xi's leverage be growing?
127. 5:06Well, he's not because he's attacked
128. 5:08anybody, he hasn't invaded a country,
129. 5:11not because he bombed anybody, he didn't
130. 5:12bomb anybody, and not because he
131. 5:14tariffed anybody, just to be clear,
132. 5:17okay? Xi's leverage is growing because
133. 5:22we started the summer with three, uh,
134. 5:26buffers of the, uh, oil shock that has
135. 5:29been delayed, and now it's really hit.
136. 5:31One was the SPR, which is now running so
137. 5:35low that Americans are nervous about
138. 5:37going lower, we may, but it's very,
139. 5:39very, uh, risky.
140. 5:41The second was the East-West pipeline,
141. 5:43which was 5 million barrels a day.
142. 5:46That's gone. Um, and the third buffer,
143. 5:49China.
144. 5:50The third buffer, China. After the May
145. 5:54summit between Xi and Trump, that's when
146. 5:57China reduced its imports of oil from 12
147. 6:01million barrels a day to 7 million. And
148. 6:04we don't know still what the quid pro
149. 6:06quo is. We all assume it must be Taiwan,
150. 6:08but we don't really know. What we know
151. 6:11is that Xi usually doesn't put out
152. 6:13charity very much. So I don't think this
153. 6:16is a charitable donation on the part of
154. 6:18Xi. And so what Xi is doing is he's
155. 6:22coming into Washington with the wind at
156. 6:25his back. Because the idea that we are
157. 6:30going to
158. 6:31just, you know, ignore the growing
159. 6:33leverage now of the Chinese.
160. 6:37And I'm not surprised he's bringing his
161. 6:40And so what do I think is is is on offer
162. 6:43next week? Effectively at a you know,
163. 6:46geo-strategic level, is will Trump trade
164. 6:50tomorrow for today?
165. 6:53Meaning, will he give advantages to the
166. 6:57already advantaged AI industries in
167. 7:01China? And I don't know if you recall my
168. 7:04my my couple sentences, I think China's
169. 7:07like 20 years ahead of us, not just the
170. 7:10way we're seeing it here. And I
171. 7:11explained all that here for you, but
172. 7:14it's it's that we're missing 90% of
173. 7:17what's happening in China because nobody
174. 7:19goes to China since COVID. Not in a big
175. 7:22way. There's hardly any media there
176. 7:24since COVID. There's hardly any
177. 7:25politicians there. The only American
178. 7:28politician of note who went to China
179. 7:31since COVID
180. 7:33was Gavin Newsom for 2 days at BYD in
181. 7:36Shenzhen. And I know because
182. 7:38we talked about it on my trip there. But
183. 7:41nobody else has really been there. And
184. 7:43so, what you are what we're missing is
185. 7:45we're not really seeing China's advance.
186. 7:49We're just just sticking our head in the
187. 7:50sand. We're just not seeing it. And she
188. 7:53is coming, and he's going to be looking
189. 7:55for, I think, advantages there. Now,
190. 7:57will will Trump
191. 7:59do things like open the American market
192. 8:03to Chinese
193. 8:05BYD
194. 8:06and Xiaomi
195. 8:08EVs? And those EVs I I Have you seen
196. 8:12some of those BYD Xiaomi EVs? So, I've
197. 8:16been in them. They actually put me in
198. 8:18I've been in them.
199. 8:19Man, these are awesome. These are not
200. 8:21Teslas.
201. 8:23Okay. This is Tesla is like a Tercel.
202. 8:26All right?