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Interview with Prof. Xiang Lanxin — Transcript

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0:03good evening everyone so happy new year
0:05to all of you and i wish 2013
0:11this is our second
0:14lecture in this very faculty and we have
0:17tonight the pleasure and the honor to
0:20welcome
0:28professors but this is explained because
0:31this is the fourth year that uh
0:33professor channel comes to a uh as
0:35obviously professor
0:37as you have seen on his bionate
0:40professor
0:41is international leading expert on china
0:44issues china u.s and china eu
0:47relations
0:49he is a graduate from food and
0:50university and holds a phd degree from
0:53johns hopkins university he is a regular
0:56colonist for global times and for the
0:58sunshine morning post i know that some
1:00of us do follow these columns on a
1:02regular basis uh lansing has also
1:05offered three books in english and four
1:08in chinese that have been well acclaimed
1:10by the scholarly community and has been
1:13recently working on the long-term
1:16project that should be coming to an end
1:19by next year so that's for next year and
1:21tonight professor is going to
1:24discuss with us his insights about the
1:27new leadership that has been appointed
1:29in beijing last november so let's give a
1:32professor another another class thank
1:34you
1:34thank you very much
1:37i'm very happy to be back usda again
1:42the
1:43the topic i'm going to
1:45deal with today is the new leadership
1:48and the challenges
1:50uh i think the
1:52first of all i think this leadership in
1:55beijing today is a very unique one
1:58now you can argue every leadership is
2:00unique but this particular generation of
2:03leaders
2:04is
2:05i would say
2:06truly unique because there is no
2:08comparison
2:10uh with the previous generation nor with
2:13the future generation this is a unique
2:15generation whose
2:17was born mostly in the 50s
2:20and um
2:22that means they have nothing to do with
2:24revolution and
2:26also
2:27i think what's important about this
2:291950s generation meaning people in their
2:32mid 50s and
2:34perhaps reaching 60s in this generation
2:38what's interesting is they have been
2:39through
2:41the most tumultuous events
2:44in people's republic history more than
2:46any other generation
2:48when you think about the i'm not talking
2:50about these first and second generation
2:52which
2:53in chinese terminology means the male
2:55generation tension call himself second
2:57generation actually he belonged to the
3:00first generation but uh
3:02i'm talking about the post-revolutionary
3:04generations leadership
3:06you have a chance of ming
3:08who
3:09uh chandra mean generation who is uh
3:12only marginally involved in the last
3:15stage revolution and who this generation
3:18also lucky enough
3:20to
3:21be able to finish their college
3:23education
3:24shortly before the revolution
3:27uh uh
3:28the success of the revolution 1949 and
3:31they were
3:32the uh mostly technocrats who were
3:34utilized immediately by the new
3:36leadership after 1949 and they even got
3:39opportunity to study
3:42in some foreign countries those days of
3:44course mostly soviet bloc countries
3:48um then you have a hu jintao generation
3:50who is the most limited in their
3:52experience and outlook
3:56because this is a generation who are so
3:58lucky they had just finished their
4:02all their education before the cultural
4:05revolution
4:06and they already got a steady job by
4:08that time so they haven't been through
4:11all these troubles the 50s generation
4:14who who went through now that's a
4:16generation who've been through
4:18the reform camps labor the
4:22camps who've been through the
4:24many
4:28uh
4:29events
4:30that reflecting
4:32the problems and ups and downs of the
4:35prc history
4:37uh as we can see from uh
4:39mr xi jinping and leaker challenge
4:42the number one number two their personal
4:44experience is very clear
4:47xi jinping went to countryside uh
4:50at the age of 16
4:52and like zhang's there
4:54age of 18. um xi jinping spent six years
4:58in the remote village and the league
5:00john about four
5:02uh myself also
5:04four years
5:06uh we we've been through this we're the
5:08same generation in the sense
5:10i think the difference about this
5:11generation and the previous generation
5:14is that
5:15they have seen the worst part
5:18of the country
5:19they saw the bottom they experienced the
5:22bottom
5:23of this
5:24society
5:26they understood in my view they
5:28understood
5:29the china's problems
5:32much more intuitively than the other
5:35generations before and after they also
5:39lucky enough they are able to
5:40participate at the early stage of the
5:42reform and their career
5:46rises steadily through
5:49the up and downs of the last 30 years of
5:52chinese reform as well
5:54so this is a generation i think they had
5:55the most of insights
5:58about chinese history and politics
6:01and this is a generation who had a sense
6:04of historic mission and if they believe
6:07that chinese
6:08system needs a serious repair or rescue
6:13they this is the generation i think
6:16they would not drag their feet
6:19they would be more resolute in in their
6:21decisions
6:23now
6:24here i think it's
6:26my generalization of this particular
6:29generation of prc history
6:32they have been through the tough life
6:33and their
6:35outlook is also very tough
6:37but they are not
6:38necessarily unrealistic
6:41and they are not necessarily
6:43extreme nationalistic
6:45because they realize that china's
6:48international environment
6:50is crucially important last 30 years
6:52that is a peaceful
6:54opportunity
6:56it's a peaceful environment it's a
6:58historic and strategic opportunity for
7:01china
7:02to maintain this current
7:05international environment
7:06that environment is crucially important
7:08for chinese economic takeoff and for the
7:10future sustained economic growth
7:12so i don't think they will be
7:15easily
7:16pursue a nationalistic policy
7:19to squander
7:22what this peaceful environment we have
7:24earned
7:25so far
7:26now if you look at modern chinese
7:28history this is a rare historic period
7:30of peace in china
7:33both domestically and
7:35internationally
7:38now what are the challenges then for
7:40this new generation
7:42the first major challenge
7:45is
7:46to how to repair
7:48the internal system
7:52our system today in the people's
7:54republic
7:55system
7:56is badly damaged
8:00despite the fact that communist party
8:05has been responsible for a rapid
8:07economic growth the last 30 years
8:10but the issue here is that
8:12the
8:13at the same time with economic growth at
8:16the same time the official corruption
8:19also grow
8:21so we have a parallel development in
8:23china
8:25now this is not something we can take
8:27lightly because
8:29the chinese population are still very
8:32much
8:33in the traditional
8:34way of thinking about politics
8:38chinese thinking about politics
8:40throughout history is not
8:43a procedure-based way of thinking
8:46meaning if you have a system arrangement
8:48such as western people would prefer
8:52a special concept politics such as
8:55montesquiou's
8:58advice so-called divisions of power
9:01that's very much a space-based concept
9:04but in the in the confusion china
9:06traditional china politics
9:08always relate to virtue relate to moral
9:11standard
9:13it is the
9:14decline or decay of the communist party
9:17elise moral standard that now has become
9:21the number one problem
9:22that really is the number one threat to
9:24the system itself
9:27this is not something
9:30they can
9:31deal with easily
9:33because the problem has been accumulated
9:35for more than 30 years starting with mr
9:38din xiaoping's
9:40rather misguided
9:42call for
9:44letting some people get rich first now
9:47the original argument of mr din jumping
9:50is
9:50is that
9:53if you allow some people get rich first
9:55other people will follow their examples
9:59that means
10:00create a market system to let people see
10:03how some people are very competitive
10:06because they play the right game in the
10:08market system but the reality is of
10:10course
10:12the
10:13people who become overnight millionaires
10:16or billionaires
10:17are mostly related to political power
10:21rather than through the
10:23enterprising
10:25activities or entrepreneurial activities
10:28this has been a problem i think caused
10:31by the
10:32one-party monopoly
10:34not only of the political power but also
10:36monopoly of national resources
10:39so it's very difficult
10:42now after accumulate for more than 30
10:45years to deal with overnight
10:47but the good news is that uh um
10:50i think the xi jinping and li kajang
10:54leadership
10:55now
10:56officially recognize this is the number
10:59one problem for china that is this is
11:02the problem that's that's going to
11:04undermine
11:05fundamentally the communist party's
11:08political legitimacy
11:11now if you
11:12follow opinion pose in china
11:16we have a lot of opinion posts despite
11:18the
11:19the the the argument we don't have
11:21freedom speech and so on but we do have
11:22a lot of opinion posts now
11:25one of the opinion posts was
11:28this may
11:30the last year last may
11:33conducted by a beijing newspaper global
11:36times
11:38and
11:39the questions it's a simple one do you
11:41think china is
11:43close to a revolution
11:46now that's a very daring kind of
11:49opinion poll obviously
11:52the answer is
11:53well more than 50 percent answers yes
11:57yeah
11:59global time is smart enough
12:01they did not publish in chinese version
12:03they put it in they no they put in an
12:06english website which was captured by
12:09french newspaper la liberacion so the
12:11liber has you know actually make it a
12:13big news saying look it's the most
12:15chinese thing but then in the west
12:17people don't understand say well
12:20eight percent nine percent gross if it
12:22dropped to seven percent why it's uh it
12:25caused a revolution they failed to
12:27understand this is it's not so much the
12:30gdp growth
12:32figure that matters for parties
12:34legitimacy
12:36gdp growth has never been part of the
12:39chinese
12:40traditional culture
12:42it's something entirely new it's a new
12:45concept
12:47it is the quality of growth it is the
12:51per capita
12:53income
12:54that matters
12:56okay
12:57confucianism
12:59as you know always emphasize on equality
13:02as confucius says rulers do not worry
13:05about people poor they're worried about
13:06people unequal
13:08when revolution starts when people feel
13:10they are unequal
13:12now what's this is how the official
13:14corruption did
13:16the damage fundamental damage to the
13:18parties one party system is because it
13:21creates huge income gap
13:25according to the international data
13:29on what's called the genie
13:32coefficient which is the internationally
13:34recognized
13:36index
13:37to measure
13:39the income gap and this relation to
13:41social stabilities
13:43as you can see the
13:45chinese last year
13:47mr boshilet before he's down four mr
13:50boshilek claimed publicly
13:53he said we are approaching five zero
13:55point five now the g d coefficient is
13:58from zero to one
14:00so zero 0.5 is very dangerous 0.4.5 is
14:04already entering the red zone danger
14:06zone for social instability
14:08social arrest uh mr boshis say we are at
14:11a level of 0.5
14:15now that announcement has become one of
14:17his accusations of course you know he
14:19should not
14:20uh publicly say so because it's supposed
14:22to be secret
14:23uh last month's
14:25another official figure which is
14:27published everywhere in chinese breasts
14:30now we are reaching 0.61
14:34so this is this is not surprising we're
14:36talking about some kind of
14:38pre-revolutionary conditions
14:41are brewing now
14:43it's a serious
14:44situation today yeah
14:47um
14:48now
14:49what's interesting about the leadership
14:51now they are taking very very seriously
14:53this is i think this is new generation
14:55leadership i think i'm
14:57i'm very happy to see
15:00after 18 party congress as you can see
15:03the leadership
15:04mr xi jinping and the others
15:06are seem to have been obsessed with
15:09reading history that's interesting
15:12phenomena
15:14mr wong shi-shan one of the leaders the
15:17top seven
15:19who was economic czar of china
15:22until last year now was put in the
15:24position as anti-corruption tar
15:29upon assuming his job the first thing he
15:31did is recommend
15:34people leaders including polio members
15:36and also chinese intellectual to read
15:39a rather obscure french book
15:43by alexey to talk view
15:46now
15:46alexei to talkview is famous for his
15:48writing on american democracy which is a
15:50you know very famous world famous
15:52best-selling books but this is a book
15:55it's not well known it's called the old
15:57regime and the revolution
16:00mr wang ji said publicly
16:03recommend people reading that book
16:05the reason is very simple
16:07they recognize
16:09there is a pre-revolutionary condition
16:11the paradox of mr the talk view
16:14the book which published in 1856 long
16:17time ago
16:19is to say
16:20usually revolution does not necessarily
16:23take place
16:24when people are in dire positions
16:27poorest situation where people cannot
16:30live
16:31on subsistence level anymore no not
16:34necessarily most revolution history took
16:36place during a kind of dramatic
16:39improvement improvement of social
16:41conditions during a very dramatic reform
16:44period
16:46if you don't handle
16:48the balance uh within the society very
16:51well
16:52a revolution could be triggered at any
16:54moment any time now especially in china
16:57today as i said the genie coefficient
16:59is so high
17:01one of the highest top 10 in the world
17:04so it's i think at least i think the
17:07leaders people like mr wanchi-san grasp
17:11the the problem
17:13he realized we have to deal with this
17:15problem so anti-corruption
17:18is now considered number one priority
17:21now how they can do it
17:23we have a lot of debates myself also
17:25participate in this debate there are
17:27many
17:28arguments about what's the best way
17:30doing this the whole idea of course
17:32is how you're going to do this without
17:36destroying the entire system right great
17:38a real revolution
17:40this is what
17:41alex said to talk about his book is
17:43talking about
17:45now so this is i think is one of the
17:47really most difficult challenge for the
17:49leadership how to rescue parties
17:52legitimacy the second point i think we
17:55can discuss even more if you want later
17:58on
17:59the second point is economic
18:00transformation now here i think in my
18:03view the task is much less
18:07a problem
18:08the idea is to transform
18:11chinese economy from a pattern of export
18:14dependent
18:15uh economy into a domestic
18:19driven
18:20economy or domestic consumption-driven
18:22economy
18:23that transformation that
18:26uh um
18:29idea
18:30is much less a problem for the
18:32leadership of the carry on as long as
18:34the social stability can be maintained
18:39you know again we're talking about
18:41social stability here because we have
18:43according to many
18:44studies probably we have 150 000 social
18:48unrest every year now if you count the
18:50whole nation so it's uh it's a it's a
18:53lot
18:54okay
18:57the way they trying to do
18:58this transformation of
19:01reduce dependency on
19:04foreign trade and foreign direct
19:06investment is to create first of all
19:10a very efficient
19:13welfare system
19:16there is talk i think they are going to
19:17pursue a national health care system
19:21now if that work out it will be the
19:23largest in the world
19:25okay
19:27that's a universal coverage if they go
19:29into the direction being a universal
19:32coverage and health care that will be
19:34the largest in the world
19:36the the other thing
19:38they trying to do is to create a
19:41more efficient retirement system
19:44at the same time at the same time
19:46the priority now is given to a
19:50idea what the xi jinping called
19:54urbanization project
19:56that's that will be the next five years
19:59here urbanization does not mean people
20:02are encouraged to go to big cities
20:05beijing shanghai that's that's not the
20:06case they are discouraged coming to this
20:09huge
20:10metropolis but rather the idea of
20:13urbanization is
20:15is to create more and more small
20:18satellite
20:19cities
20:21around big cities especially inland area
20:25for the purpose of reducing
20:27rural residents
20:29therefore at the same time reducing
20:32dramatically the income gap here is the
20:35structural gap between
20:37countryside and urban areas
20:40that has been a problem for china for
20:43for many many years since the reform
20:45because the rural income is far behind
20:49the urban
20:51income as far as the
20:53speed of
20:54growth is concerned
20:57and also the in between inland and the
21:00coastal area
21:01inland coastal area
21:03so other issues will follow if
21:05urbanization plan works
21:07such as environment protection and
21:10now environmental issues i know it's
21:12become very serious because the last
21:15couple of days you can see
21:17but
21:18i think the chinese government is now
21:20giving priority to this
21:23it will take long time again it has been
21:25accumulated for so long the problem and
21:27they going to
21:29take very serious seriously and
21:31my understanding is the
21:33ministry of environmental protection
21:34will be greatly expanded the next couple
21:37months after the
21:39uh
21:40the the march
21:42congress where the official government
21:45will be formed
21:47after march
21:50they will give more
21:51funding and
21:53more portfolio more power
21:55dealing with
21:56china's environmental problems
22:00now the the question about
22:03the economy here the
22:05one problem they cannot solve or will
22:08continue to be
22:10in trouble would be the china's
22:13excessive holding of of
22:16u.s debt now here i think it's our
22:18central bank
22:19made a mistake anyway all exams and the
22:22leadership previous leadership made
22:24misjudgment
22:25on this issue and now it's too late for
22:28china to get
22:29get away from this because most of our
22:34three trillion
22:35or so surpluses
22:38about two-thirds i think it's in the uh
22:42uss
22:43which provide the united states not only
22:45the finance for their
22:48military and other activities but also
22:50provide united states with the
22:53non-stop uh attempt at
22:56diluting value or to reduce the value of
22:59the u.s dollar by
23:00quantitative ease
23:02now we are reaching qe4 and
23:06especially when the united states on the
23:08physical cliff as you can see
23:11we are paying for them
23:13we pick up the attack
23:16it's too late for china to diverse
23:18they should have done before
23:20so this is an issue i think it's very
23:22difficult for
23:24for the leadership to deal with but as
23:26you can see our central banker already
23:28got punished
23:29uh by bypass for this new party central
23:32committee mr joe
23:35i will say effectively fired
23:37because his
23:39behavior in the past
23:41but that's
23:42something beyond china's control
23:46they learn the lesson
23:48they will do more in the future to
23:50diversify
23:51they did not take euro seriously now
23:53they regret
23:55uh so here i think and the gold as well
23:59so here i think it's uh
24:01the
24:03economic picture i do not see is
24:08we're going to have a major problem this
24:09year or next few years
24:12the last point i want to
24:14talk about is international relations
24:18yes
24:19chinese external relations is in a very
24:22very difficult period perhaps the most
24:25difficult since 1980
24:30there is even talk in china maybe maybe
24:35peaceful
24:36environment or what they called in
24:38chinese language
24:40it's called the strategic
24:43opportunity of
24:44peace is ending
24:48that that means
24:50that china has to
24:52begin has to begin to think about the
24:54preparation for
24:56possible confrontations
24:59not only with some neighbor countries
25:01over territorial disputes but more
25:03importantly the problem is
25:05between china and the united states
25:08this i think is very clearly reflected
25:11by obama administrations
25:12administration's
25:13strategy of a pivot to asia
25:16and
25:18a variety of ways the united states
25:21tried to do to build
25:23a kind of
25:25anti-china or at least they say they say
25:28it's not anti-china but
25:30we all know what they mean
25:33project
25:34of
25:35several sets of bilateral diplomatic
25:38alliance
25:39at the same time reviving quite a few
25:42cold war military alliance
25:45so americans pursue a very uh
25:48actively
25:49a
25:50strategy
25:51very much similar
25:53to what americans has been pursuing
25:55during the cold war
25:58in asia and the pacific it is a strategy
26:01of containment
26:03if you allow me to use the cold war
26:07terminology okay
26:10and also the united states had a
26:12military
26:14revolution the last few years
26:17by phasing out
26:18some military services
26:20and then at the same time stressing
26:23other military services and the most
26:25important project here is so-called air
26:28sea battle
26:31strategy
26:33the well the asb is something still
26:37unfolding
26:38it's not complete project yet
26:41but it's clearly this is the concept of
26:45emphasizing on
26:46technical and
26:48real
26:49battle
26:50ground coordination between air force
26:54here i also including the space weapon
26:56system not just air force but the air
26:59force and the navy
27:01while the land force and the
27:04traditional marines will be phased out
27:07the idea is very clear
27:09i mean the purpose is very clear here
27:13this is a new military
27:15technical revolution
27:18this is
27:19this is idea almost exclusively designed
27:24for
27:25its pivot to asia
27:28general strategy
27:31now obama administration has been
27:32talking about uh saying that um no this
27:35is not um
27:36containment this is what they call
27:38rebalancing
27:41um
27:42no matter what they call
27:44rebalancing what uh the the
27:47the number one target still is china so
27:50this is the one of the reasons i think
27:53that the
27:55regional security uh suddenly become
27:58very tense
28:00but we do i believe
28:02have a
28:04structural problem in the region as well
28:06asian pacific is the only region in the
28:08world that never had a serious
28:11uh never has had a serious collective
28:14security system
28:17almost everywhere in the world there's
28:19some kind of collective security
28:21arrangement but asia pacific has never
28:22had one because precisely because asian
28:26pacific nations for long time
28:29they are somehow complacent
28:31they don't think they need a region
28:34original
28:36a multilateral security system it's
28:39unnecessary also because precisely
28:42because economic
28:43development
28:45is the most this region in this region
28:47is the most dynamic as compared with
28:50other regions of the world
28:52there is always a kind of assumption
28:54that people would automatically striving
28:56for peace
28:57rather than for a confrontation
29:00but the reality of course proves
29:02otherwise what we see today asia pacific
29:05is the largest military market in the
29:08world
29:08and asia pacific is a place where the
29:12most tense
29:14arms race
29:16including research and development
29:18and many other projects are taking place
29:21okay so it's not
29:25the prospect is not nearly as peaceful
29:28as people tend to think
29:30now did chinese made mistakes yes i do
29:33think so
29:34i think the last few years chinese also
29:36made made mistakes
29:38the the problem is they mishandled the
29:41territory disputes with other countries
29:44i i personally believe that um
29:46the idea
29:48of calling south china sea china's core
29:52interest
29:53it's one of the closer mistakes one of
29:55the biggest mistake diplomatic mistakes
29:58chinese have made in the last 30 years
30:01okay
30:04because you don't call some disputed
30:07issue a core interest
30:10you can say tibet is core interest
30:12taiwan is a core interest xinjiang is a
30:14core interest
30:16because that's a direct issue of
30:18national sovereignty and
30:20but if you have a disputed territorial
30:22issue if you caught core interests
30:24meaning you don't want to provide any
30:27room for negotiations
30:30and also when call something core
30:33interests you have to define what
30:34periphery is of course leadership does
30:36not
30:38have no clue what periphery is
30:41okay
30:42this i think is one of those uh
30:45rather in my view stupid mistakes the
30:48the leadership made the last 10 years
30:51which caused worries caused concerns of
30:54china's neighbors
30:57besides of course the diplomatic
30:58attitude
31:00of a chinese
31:03a top diplomat
31:04including foreign minister himself
31:08i think many
31:09of his behavior in my view is not
31:12acceptable
31:13by international standard
31:15so we have this kind of
31:19what obama's ration called
31:21excessive assertiveness that was
31:23demonstrated which can be interpreted
31:27by outside players as
31:29a
31:31nationalistic
31:32okay
31:34well the good news is that the new
31:36leadership in my view
31:38is not
31:39strongly nationalistic
31:41because my understanding they understand
31:45if you want to utilize nationalism for
31:48domestic purposes
31:49it's a it's a it's a double-edged weapon
31:52it's always risky of doing that i i
31:55always prefer to call nationalism a
31:57tiger
31:58if you ride a tiger it can run very fast
32:02but you can never be sure
32:04it can reach the destination uh
32:07before it get rid of you yourself i mean
32:10you or you've fallen from the tigers
32:12back
32:13get the serious injured it's very
32:15dangerous for
32:17any government
32:19to rely upon nationalism to pursue a
32:22domestic agenda
32:24now here i'm not saying only china made
32:27mistakes i certainly think japanese too
32:29so here i think we are reaching my last
32:31point
32:33we can discuss other issues if we want
32:35but the reason to sign the japanese
32:37relationship i think is a classic case
32:40of
32:40misbehavior on both sides and misreading
32:43of each other's mind and the
32:44miscalculation on both sides
32:47okay
32:49the purchasing of the island the the
32:51senkaku or we call it delhi island
32:55in my view is one of the biggest
32:57diplomatic
32:59uh uh
33:01blund of japanese politicians ever made
33:04because they knew there is no legal
33:06seller to begin with
33:10my view is that it's very much like like
33:12margaret sacher
33:14at the time of negotiating with den
33:16xiaoping over hong kong
33:18never touch legal issues we can always
33:21work on these issues
33:22on with consensus was a tacit
33:25understanding
33:26uh you call it asian way of doing things
33:29but that's fine
33:30but you know margaret thatcher before
33:32the hong kong settlement
33:34chinese are not interesting taking over
33:36hong kong as you know
33:38they don't want to take over hong kong
33:40because too dangerous politically for
33:42the jumping even think
33:44uh thinking about taking back hong kong
33:47they never there is no plan of taking
33:49over hong kong every time mark with such
33:51a british prime minister went to
33:53china
33:54talking about renewed lease
33:57so when you start talking about lease
33:59then job means natural rare reaction to
34:02what lease there is no
34:04lease because no
34:07government in china i'm not talking
34:09about communism i'm talking about chiang
34:10kai-shek we talk about previous
34:12government even warlord government would
34:14ever accept the legal concept hong
34:17kong's under at least
34:19because that's elise was signed 1898
34:22with manchu government
34:24so it is a japanese
34:27they underestimate this kind of
34:30play with the concept purchasing an
34:32island then you put yourself in a corner
34:35saying you have to define it as a
34:36sovereign position
34:38then
34:39you push china in the corner saying
34:41there's no way we can accept it
34:44so i think both sides i think are not
34:47performed very well in this case
34:49so on this particular issue i'm very
34:51pessimistic i will not be surprised to
34:53see
34:55some serious confrontation
34:57military computation take place
35:00next few months
35:02okay i think i stopped here
35:04you can have any questions thank you
35:08i'm sure you could continue for hours
35:11well if you wanted
35:12a very
35:14enjoyable experience to listen to you
35:16once again you know it's uh the main
35:19challenges are many uh tremendous and
35:21very complex and uh um you uh
35:25help us to decipher within this
35:27complexity i believe that the audience
35:29has
35:30some questions so maybe if you want to
35:33start
35:34yes so maybe we can take two questions
35:36for you sure
35:39two different questions
35:41do you think that the
35:43dependency of the united states towards
35:45china economically
35:48is
35:49becoming
35:50an aggravating factor in bilateral
35:52relations or
35:55an attenuating factor
35:57and they're totally different questions
35:59how do you see the strategic partnership
36:02of the united states with india is that
36:04in china of course this equation
36:07my understanding you talk about
36:08dependency of the us on china you talk
36:10about financial side and the the money
36:13basically right
36:14you said that the
36:16u.s china economic
36:18uh
36:19um
36:20well you know
36:21unfortunately
36:23as economist keynes used to say if i owe
36:26my bank 10
36:281000 pound
36:31i afraid of my banker but if if i owe my
36:34bank one billion pound banker afraid of
36:36me
36:37so
36:39this is how the situation is
36:41they owe us so much money and they are
36:45in the better position
36:47we are hostages basically i think
36:49chinese effectively hostages now
36:52they cannot get out they cannot even
36:54reduce on large scale and they they
36:57cannot even talk about threatened to get
37:00out
37:01the u.s debt
37:02because that immediately triggered
37:04depreciation the dollar value we we lost
37:06probably thirty percent you know just
37:08overnight
37:10uh to nobody's
37:11advantage now
37:13i think this is a a misjudgment in my
37:17view on china's side
37:18um without any thinking of
37:21diversification because you buy anything
37:23you you diversify it's like in a buying
37:26stock
37:27stocks you're supposed to diversify why
37:29you only hold one currency
37:33so this is mistake so i think it's
37:35diplomatically speaking it's it's not to
37:38our advantage anymore on that issue
37:41now
37:42uh the second question you talk about
37:44u.s indian strategic relations yes it is
37:46very important
37:48because this is a one dot
37:50remember american
37:52return to asia strategy depends on
37:54several dots they want to link
37:58and there are some dots they already
38:00worked out
38:02so i'm talking about the strategic
38:05uh
38:06line
38:07uh
38:08vis-a-vis china chinese would call it
38:11c-shape
38:12line of encirclement that's what chinese
38:15military would call
38:17all the way from kira island okinawa
38:19japan okinawa
38:21joey island taiwan philippines
38:24crosses the south china sea vietnam uh
38:27into
38:28uh
38:29indian ocean okay now the americans
38:32diplomatic uh
38:34move is very successful they are very
38:36successful even working on a couple of
38:39dots they desperately want to link
38:42burma being one example the miami
38:45excessively
38:47active there that's what obama's first
38:49visit after the re-election it's a
38:51miyama
38:52and the other is india
38:54yeah the other is india of course they
38:56hope cambodia they hope thailand but
38:58cambodia thailand is much harder to work
39:00on but they are too close to china so
39:04india it's a case america plays very
39:07very important
39:09uh
39:10stake there
39:12um because the question of indian ocean
39:16excess the chant you know that's where
39:18the chinese navy would like to have uh
39:20presence
39:21but so far it's not entirely successful
39:24that would be
39:25my judgment
39:27because indians are not willing to
39:30automatically jump on american strategic
39:32plan okay there is another issue i think
39:36americans are frustrated with indians
39:38americans hope indians would purchase a
39:40large-scale american weapon systems
39:42which indians need to purchase now
39:46they are very aggressive buying
39:49those weapons but since the legacy of
39:51indian military since the cold war is
39:53they are always allied with the russians
39:56they are used to russian military
39:57weapons system uh it's hard for indians
40:01unless you completely
40:03revamp your weapons system including
40:05code of operation you know everything
40:08you need to change
40:10so they they rather prefer to buy more
40:12continued by the russians than from in
40:15from the united states
40:17even though they're buying some u.s
40:18weapons
40:20so americans hope indians purchase more
40:22and more eventually they will
40:25what the pentagon people would call
40:27interoperable
40:28situation when if there is a war in the
40:31ocean they will automatically
40:32collaborate
40:33you know easy to
40:35technically say united states no china
40:39this is sustainable
40:41well it's made it may be sustainable you
40:43see
40:44during the cold war non-aligned moment
40:46never sustainable as we all know india
40:49yugoslavia you know they all tried this
40:52and indonesia also
40:54but today it's possible
40:56my view is this
40:58united states cannot the united states
41:00strategy against china they cannot rely
41:03on asean countries entirely because
41:06asean is itself split in the middle
41:10basically
41:12that's that's why it's provided a space
41:14for country like indonesia to play its
41:17old game
41:19as they did before was a bandung
41:21conference 50 you know the
41:24socano period um
41:26yeah so it's um yeah it's possible and
41:29from chinese point of view of course
41:31there will be most habit indonesia can
41:34to play that role
41:36and that would be the most
41:38you know happy situation for for them
41:40yes
41:41i thought you implied that
41:44the three words the words economics and
41:47corruption and government right
41:49in fact there are three
41:51words yes it's not the same word
41:54does government doesn't government
41:56determine what is criminality and
41:58government is not about to criminalize
42:00itself so
42:02aren't those three words really just one
42:05word and how can you sort out how can
42:07you
42:08untangle
42:09that
42:10um grotesque word
42:13well it's always difficult i mean it's
42:15not
42:16i wouldn't think it's necessarily a
42:18problem for china i mean this this is a
42:20universal problem you think about every
42:22state uh a big country like
42:25brazil because you know i think about
42:27even
42:28what russia how do you deal with russia
42:30it's basically a mafia country right
42:34italy not to mention and the united
42:36states itself
42:38um absolutely first first and foremost
42:40yeah the first former is the united
42:41states uh especially during the you know
42:4419th century what they call maktoun
42:46called gilded age
42:48where you have tamani hall politics you
42:49have all these rockefellers morgans
42:53who basically buying those buying
42:54politicians uh it's always difficult to
42:57disentangle
42:59government corruption economy because
43:01they are intimately related now what is
43:04unique this is my
43:07my thinking
43:08about china here is that
43:11the official corruption is widespread in
43:14china
43:15but it's not
43:17well organized
43:19in other words i put this way it is not
43:23legitimately defended as being a way of
43:26life it's an you know it's a rise
43:29for the elite who holding political
43:31power to have access to
43:34win the force
43:36of the economic uh success
43:39because
43:40the uh
43:42the official ideology is still
43:44well first of all it's
43:47we still call ourselves socialism with
43:49chinese characteristics
43:52now when you still maintain the concept
43:54socialism there is no way
43:57for the government
43:59to justify income such a huge income gap
44:03no matter what
44:05you you you try what methods you try you
44:08cannot justify okay so from people's
44:11point of view if they see it every day
44:14some people driving ferrari some people
44:18you know don't even have a car
44:21that's something
44:22people need to find you know
44:24the answers okay
44:26uh so the the official corruption in
44:28china
44:29in other words has no legal basis and
44:32there is no uh uh
44:34official sanctions
44:36in the past it is the elite who took
44:39opportunities to play within this system
44:44so in that sense i think it's uh
44:48if if the leadership really is
44:51determined
44:52uh
44:53to deal with this issue seriously they
44:56can find a way to do this
44:59now but how you can do it
45:01without destroying the party and the
45:02state as i say we are all debating about
45:05it i myself published a piece
45:08maybe last month uh my my own proposal i
45:11can tell you my we have a lot of debates
45:13you know my own proposal let's follow
45:15the south african approach
45:18of course i received so many attacks uh
45:21on the website
45:23my preference is a south african
45:25approach that is the uh reconciliation
45:29committee you know remember this is it's
45:31called his truth and the reconciliation
45:32committee approach
45:34my proposal is to set up a deadline
45:37to force them to submit
45:40their you know
45:43file file their assets and they have to
45:46return a large chunk of assets to the
45:48state
45:49and after that they're lying forget
45:51about it
45:54in the future of course we are
45:56at the same time was
45:58you know going to set up very very tough
46:00this is what one she said is doing now
46:02tough rules saying you know if somebody
46:05violated again
46:06but we cannot trace back everybody
46:09misbehavior criminal behavior or
46:12because all these corruption behavior
46:14always in between law legal and illegal
46:18uh it's always difficult to uh to
46:20demarcate
46:23so i prefer this approach but
46:26most chinese readers don't agree
46:29so i don't know i mean how we do it
46:32but that's more a very important issue
46:35here it's it's going to be a tough issue
46:39yes
46:53it's like a
46:55geographic career right that
46:58doesn't allow china to go into the open
47:00sea
47:01why
47:02what plays the role of
47:05russia because it seems that we are
47:08always talking about from east to west
47:10and forgetting the big giant from
47:14the north well um
47:16yes china and russia has really
47:18has the best relationship
47:20ever
47:21in in history i
47:23i i always joke about this since
47:25catherine the great
47:26um
47:27they really enjoy the best time now
47:30the the meaning of course
47:32russians understand my joke the meaning
47:34is the chinese and russian never trust
47:36each other since catherine the great so
47:38at this stage really the best
47:41the reason is that they don't have much
47:43geostrategic rivalry today this is i
47:46think the good news
47:48secondly i think china and russia
47:51complementary with each other in terms
47:53of economic structure
47:55even though russian tend to resent that
48:01when i made a speech at the peterson
48:03petersburg economic summit uh some two
48:06years ago i use the term compatibility
48:10russians not have it here
48:13i said the two structure compatible
48:14meaning we are manufacturing industries
48:17they are providing raw materials so this
48:19is russians very unhappy
48:22but nevertheless you know they are more
48:24compatible than other bilateral economic
48:27relationship
48:29they have something we need
48:31two things russian can sell if they want
48:33to sell we purchase everything that they
48:36can sell one is advanced weapon system
48:38whatever they want to sell the other is
48:41the the energy resources
48:44and then china of course selling
48:46manufacturing products so
48:48um
48:50i don't see russia it's uh today with
48:52china is the most important uh bilateral
48:55relationship one of the most important
48:57bilateral relationships as well
49:00aside from
49:01china eu relations now
49:05xi jinping
49:06a new leader where he's going to visit
49:09first country is going to visit
49:12my guess is
49:13prove if i'm wrong next couple months
49:16russia that will be my hunch
49:24maybe i can ask you when this leadership
49:27was appointed in november
49:30the scholarly community of china experts
49:33were a bit disappointed and felt that it
49:35was a bit more conservative that their
49:38expectation from six months ago
49:40especially after the fall of for july
49:42but after listening to you it seems that
49:44you are much more optimistic right and
49:46so again once again you prove yourself
49:48to be against a mainstream uh kind of
49:51feeling
49:52well yes i i never
49:55i never use
49:57typical western press expression by
49:59dividing chinese leaders
50:01in two camps reformers
50:04and conservatives as if people are
50:07conservative not interested in reforms
50:10or vice versa now i don't think this you
50:13know this is the way
50:15uh uh look at this issue
50:18uh i would say yes mr xi jinping won
50:21shi-shan uh perhaps also leaker jam but
50:26and several others are you can
50:28characterize as being conservative
50:31conservative meaning they want to
50:33conserve
50:36the state and the party system
50:39they would not allow a deviation from
50:41this fundamental
50:43uh principle
50:44that is
50:46we're not going to change into a
50:47different system okay
50:50but at the same time my my argument
50:52would be this is a very pragmatic
50:56group and they stay knows they have
50:59experience life experience survival
51:01instinct so what they do is they will do
51:04whatever is pragmatic they can practical
51:08they can
51:09to repair the rescue the system or
51:13eventually improve the system
51:16so in that sense political reform is on
51:19the agenda i would not think
51:21it's possible that
51:23you know they will not push for a major
51:27aspect of political reform i think they
51:29will do they will yes
51:31okay that's quite a positive note if
51:34there is no other questions i'd like to
51:36invite everyone to join us for some
51:38refreshments and to continue the
51:39discussion with professor xiang before
51:42that let's give professor xiang last
51:43night
51:53you

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